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Environmental Scanning
What is Scanning?
The beating heart of foresight.

A constant, ongoing process of looking across
the “horizon” to detect, identify and catalog
weak signals, trends and driving forces
embedded in information and activities in the
world around you.

Built up over time to facilitate pattern
recognition and identification of important
future factors.

"A kind of radar to scan the world systematically
and signal the new, the unexpected, the major
and the minor"
Why does it happen?
To identify important metrics, such as:

  Frequency of signals

  Strength of signals

  “Directionality” of trends

  Maturity of issue

  Spread/contagion
Who does it?
Foresight professionals

Strategic planners

Competitive analysts

Designers and creatives

Engineers

Government
How does it happen?

System of capture, collection
and organization

Process for scanning

Tools for scanning

Framework for seeing patterns
Where does it happen?
News media

Professional and academic journals

Blogs and Web articles

Entertainment

Events

Interviews

Word of mouth

Direct observation

Social media

Expert networks
Define your environment

         macro




          meso



          micro
Define your horizon(s)


TODAY   HORIZON 1:   HORIZON 2:   HORIZON 3:
          1 YEAR      3 YEARS      5 YEARS
What makes a “hit”?
One or more elements that catch the trained eye

  Weak signal

  Strong signal

  Data

  Sentiment

  A piece of a larger puzzle—part of a sequence

  Signal to noise ratio.
How do you classify
and organize?

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Futures Institute Scanning Tutorial

  • 2. What is Scanning? The beating heart of foresight. A constant, ongoing process of looking across the “horizon” to detect, identify and catalog weak signals, trends and driving forces embedded in information and activities in the world around you. Built up over time to facilitate pattern recognition and identification of important future factors. "A kind of radar to scan the world systematically and signal the new, the unexpected, the major and the minor"
  • 3. Why does it happen? To identify important metrics, such as: Frequency of signals Strength of signals “Directionality” of trends Maturity of issue Spread/contagion
  • 4. Who does it? Foresight professionals Strategic planners Competitive analysts Designers and creatives Engineers Government
  • 5. How does it happen? System of capture, collection and organization Process for scanning Tools for scanning Framework for seeing patterns
  • 6. Where does it happen? News media Professional and academic journals Blogs and Web articles Entertainment Events Interviews Word of mouth Direct observation Social media Expert networks
  • 7. Define your environment macro meso micro
  • 8. Define your horizon(s) TODAY HORIZON 1: HORIZON 2: HORIZON 3: 1 YEAR 3 YEARS 5 YEARS
  • 9. What makes a “hit”? One or more elements that catch the trained eye Weak signal Strong signal Data Sentiment A piece of a larger puzzle—part of a sequence Signal to noise ratio.
  • 10. How do you classify and organize?

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