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University of Amsterdam and University College London

Technology Education

Probabilistic Squirrels : A Novel Defence of Twofold Causality Federica Russo [email_address] Centre de Philosophie des Sciences UCL

Overview ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Suppes’ Probabilistic Theory ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Is Suppes’ Theory Adequate? ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

The Golf Environment: Improbable Consequences ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

The Golf Environment: Negative Causes ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Probabilistic Squirrels save PT, seemingly ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Bayesian squirrels reveal a fallacy

Suppes’: causal relations among quantitative properties ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Quantitative Barometric Changes ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Quantitative Probabilistic Squirrels ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Quantitative Squirrels are negative causes ,[object Object],Squirrel –Y- Cup – X- 1 0 Tot 1 .10 .80 .90 0 .05 .05 .10 Tot .15 .85 1

The probability of a birdie given the squirrel’s kick does exist

Still, do you want the squirrel to be a token positive cause?

Token probability trajectories face two problems: ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Sketch of a solution ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

To sum up … ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],ACQUITTED!

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