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::
::




     Which candidate will you ‘buy’?
     Conjoint Analysis, from marketing studies to electoral research




     Janko Hočevar & Toni Gril




                   Summer School in Methods and Techniques 2009
:: Agenda


  Part I.
  • Intro to Conjoint Analysis
      - Idea
      - History
      - Flavors


  Part II.
  • Conjoint Analysis in the context of political research
  • Case studies:
      - Slovenian parliamentary elections 2000
      - Slovenian presidential elections 2002
  • Q&A




                                                             3
::




     Part I.

     Intro to Conjoint Analysis



               Ask people what they want, and they say, “the best of everything”.
               Ask them what they would like to spend, and they say, “a little as possible”.

               – Bryan K. Orme
::




     Slide borrowed from: Batsell R., Chrzan K., Baggett S., SawtoothSoftware Conference, Barcelona 2008.
                                                                                                        5
::




     Slide borrowed from: Batsell R., Chrzan K., Baggett S., SawtoothSoftware Conference, Barcelona 2008.
                                                                                                        6
::




     Slide borrowed from: Batsell R., Chrzan K., Baggett S., SawtoothSoftware Conference, Barcelona 2008.
                                                                                                        7
::



      John




     Slide borrowed from: Batsell R., Chrzan K., Baggett S., SawtoothSoftware Conference, Barcelona 2008.
                                                                                                        8
::



      Mary




     Slide borrowed from: Batsell R., Chrzan K., Baggett S., SawtoothSoftware Conference, Barcelona 2008.
                                                                                                        9
::



      Bubba




     Slide borrowed from: Batsell R., Chrzan K., Baggett S., SawtoothSoftware Conference, Barcelona 2008.
                                                                                                       10
::



           Romantic                                       3,9

               Sexy                                      3,8

        Entertaining                                                       4,4

            Exciting                                                 4,2

               Calm                                                               4,6

           Laid back                                                 4,2

          Outdoorsy                                                  4,2

     Family-Oriented                                                             4,5

              Fancy                                            4,0

                       1         2              3          4                            5




     • Bias toward high importance in ratings
     • Lack of discrimination
     • Different respondents use the scale differently




                                                                                            11
::


     • Ask Direct Questions about preference:
         -   What brand do you prefer?
         -   What Interest Rate would you like?
         -   What Annual Fee would you like?
         -   What Credit Limit would you like?
     • Answers often trivial and unenlightening (e.g. respondents prefer low fees to
       high fees, higher credit limits to low credit limits)




                                                                                       12
:: CA Idea


  • People cannot reliably express how they weight separate features of the
    product/service
  • But can evaluate the overall desirability of a complex product/service profile – a
    more realistic approach
      - Based on a function of the value of its separate (yet conjoined) parts
  • We can break product/services into features (attributes & their levels)
  • Based on how people evaluate the combined features (profiles) we can deduce
    the preference scores people might have assigned to individual features of the
    product/service
      - That are the result of those overall evaluations
  • A back-door, decompositional approach for estimating people‟s preferences,
    rather than an explicit approach of simply asking people to rate, rank, .. separate
    features




                                                                                   13
:: CA Short History


  • Based on the work by:
       - Luce & Tukey in 60‟s
             Luce, D. & J. Tukey ,1964. Simultaneous conjoint measurement: A new type of fundamental measurement. Journal of
               Mathematical Psycchology
       - McFadden in 70‟s - Discrete choice methods
             McFadden, D. 1974. Conditional logit analysis of qualitative choice behavior. In P. Zarembka (ed.), Frontiers in
               Econometrics, pp. 105-142. New York: Academic Press.
  • Early 70s
       - work of P. Green:
             Green, P. & V. Rao 1971, August. Conjoint measurement for quantifying judgemental data. Journal of Marketing
               Research
       - work of R. Johnson:
             • Johnson, R. 1974, May. Trade-off analysis of consumer values. Journal of Marketing Research
  • 80‟s
       - Green & Wind: application of conjoint analysis to help Marriott design its new Couryard Hotel
             • S. Herman & Bretton-Clark software released software system
       - R. Johnson (at Sawtooth Software) released a software system Adaptive Conjoint Analysis (ACA)
  • 90‟s
       - Discrete Choice overtakes Traditional Conjoint methods
             • Commercial software released (SawtoothSoftware CBC)
             • Application of of hierarchical Bayes (HB) methods to estimate individual-level models from discrete choice data (led
               by G. Allenby of the Ohio State University)
  • 00‟s and beyond
       - Maximum-Difference Scaling
       - Adaptive Choice Based Conjoint (ACBC) software released by SawtoothSoftware in 2009


                                                                                                                                14
:: Two broad types of CA


  • “Traditional” CA
      - uses data collected from sequential ratings, rankings or graded (rated) paired
        comparisons followed by an analysis using simple linear models
      - Use of “choice simulators” to predict individuals‟ preferences and choices
           • No Choices are observed
  • Choice-based Conjoint Analysis (CBC).
      - uses data collected from a series of choices (from “choice sets”), followed by an
        analysis using probabilistic choice models.
      - Use of choice simulators to predict individuals‟ preferences and choices
           • Choices are observed




                                                                                            15
:: CA Terminology


  • Attribute
       - A feature of product/service: Brand, Price, Pack type,...
  • Attribute Level
       - A value or range of variation for an attribute:
             • Coca Cola, Pepsi,..., 0.5€, 0.6€,..., 0,33 l Can, 0,5 l Plastic Bottle
  • Profile / Concept
       - A combination of attribute levels: Coca-Cola at 0.5€ in a 0,33 l Can
  • Design
       - the attribute combinations that make up product/service profiles/concepts and how
         those profiles/concepts are combined within tasks.




                                                                                        16
:: Design


  • Orthogonality:
      - each level appears an equal number of times with every other level of different
        attributes. (zero correlation between pairs of attributes)
  • Level Balance:
      - within each attribute, each level appears an equal number of times.
  • Minimal Overlap:
      - achieve maximum variation across levels of an attribute within a (choice) task
        (try not to repeat a level).


  • Designs which are orthogonal and balanced are optimally efficient.



  • In the real world: well-balanced, "nearly orthogonal“ designs




                                                                                          17
:: CA Research Process


  • Identify attributes that underlie consumer preferences for products/services.
  • Select levels or values of each attribute to represent ranges of variation in real
    markets
  • Create product or service profiles generated from some type of experimental
    design
  • Administer to a sample of respondents
  • Analyze the data
      -   Relative importance
      -   Utilities or Part-Worth's
      -   Simulations
      -   Optimizations




                                                                                    18
:: CA Data Analysis


  • Parameter estimates
      - OLS
      - MNL (HB)
  • Simulations
      -   First choice rule
      -   Purchase Likelihood
      -   Share of Preference
      -   Randomized First Choice




                                    19
:: Basic Flavors


  • CVA – Conjoint Value Analysis (traditional)
      -   One or two full profile concepts
      -   One design / experiment
      -   Rating
      -   OLS
      -   Individual parameter estimation




                                                  20
:: Basic Flavors


  • ACA – Adaptive Conjoint Analysis
      -   Two partial profile concepts
      -   Concepts complexity manipulation
      -   Unique individual design / experiment
      -   Starting point from direct (self-explicated) input
      -   Rating
      -   OLS
      -   Individual parameter estimation




                                                               21
:: Starting point




                    22
:: Starting point




                    23
:: Paired comparison section




                               24
:: Calibration part




                      25
::


     • CBC – Choice Based Conjoint
         -   Two or more concepts
         -   Full or partial profile
         -   Multiple designs / experiments
         -   Alternative specific designs
         -   Fixed / Constant alternatives
                • (e.i. I wouldn‟t buy anything; I‟d stay with my current service; NONE)
         - Choices, allocations (Constant Sum allocation)
         - Group / Semi-individual parameter estimation (MNL HB)




                                                                                           26
:: A Choice Task




                   27
:: Alternative specific




                          28
:: Partial profile




                     29
:: What can we do with Conjoint data?


  • Base case predictions linked with descriptive data
       - who chooses what?
  • Great input for segmentation (cluster analysis, latent class,...)
  • Simulations (what if?)
       - Sensitivity analysis (what if? systematically)
  • Optimizations (best configurations)

  • A simulator mimics a certain situation, that may or may not happen in reality (like
    a flight simulator).
  • The purpose is to estimate the probable effects of products/services.
  • For this, the simulator needs input
       - Data to describe the situation (scenario definition)
       - Data on how consumers react (utilities from conjoint)
       - Definition of the calculation
  • Changing (part of) this data will result in new scenarios and new output




                                                                                   30
::




     Part II.

     Conjoint Analysis in the context of political research




            Case studies:
            Slovenian parliamentary elections 2000
            Slovenian presidential elections 2002
:: The premise


  • The outcome of presidential or party contest is influenced by many factors
       - party identification, candidate personality, campaign strategy and tactics, financing,
         etc.
  • In a real „purchase situation‟, „consumers‟ do not make choices based on a
    single attribute. Consumers examine a range of features or attributes and then
    make judgments or trade-offs to determine their final purchase choice.
  • This is just as true for the „choice‟ made in political situations, such as assessing
    the viability of a candidate, determining the support of various political,
    economic, social issues.

  Product:
  • Candidate (not „branded‟) / Political Party (not „branded‟ but with issues
    positions)

  • Political Parties / Candidates are:
       - Managed as Products/Services
       - Advertised as Poroduct/Services
       - Communicated as Products/Services

                                                                                             32
::




     Slovenian parliamentary elections 2000




           Client: The Mladina Magazine
:: Slovenian parliamentary elections 2000


  • Determine issues relative importance to voters, the most and least popular
    position on each issue, the impact of a given position on voting behavior, and
    the relative strength of different candidate profiles.
  • To do that, we asked each respondent to rate a series of hypothetical pair of
    candidates who have either a „liberal‟, „centrist‟, or „conservative‟ position on
    each of 5 issue categories.
  • Issues were the subject of debate in the campaign, and the position descriptions
    were determined from positions that the candidates have actually taken and
    were exposed in the media.

  • C.A.T.I., n = 601
  • ACA




                                                                                 34
:: Slovenian parliamentary elections 2000


  5 attributes & a total of 14 levels:

  • History:                                              • Welfare
       - Past injustices are settled, what is important        - Every single individual should take care of
         is the future                                           his/hers social welfare (health care, pension
       - There is no future unless we settle past                welfare,...)
         injustices                                            - The state and every single individual should
       - The future must be a priority, but we must              take care of social welfare
         never forget the past injustices                      - The state should take care of the whole
                                                                 social welfare of its citizens
  • Roman-Catholic church                                 • Lustration
       - RCC should be included in the political               - Those who were appointed to management
         decision making                                         positions by the former political system,
       - RCC should be consulted only with the                   should stay there if they are capable and
         essential political issues                              qualified
       - RCC must be excluded from political sphere            - We should remove all those who were
                                                                 appointed to management positions by the
  • Equalitarianism                                              former political system
       - The state should determine maximum wage
         of all managers in all companies
       - The state should determine maximum wage
         only of managers in state owned companies
                                                          • 10 pair
       - The state should not interfere with managers     • 2 attributes in pair
         wages


                                                                                                          35
:: Slovenian parliamentary elections 2000

   Relative importance of issues




                            Lustration
                              15,5%           Welfare
                                               22,9%




                  Equalitarianism
                      19,7%



                                              Roman-Catholic
                                                 church
                                                  21,6%
                                    History
                                    20,3%




                                                               36
-50,0
                                                                               -40,0
                                                                                       -30,0
                                                                                                  -20,0
                                                                                                          -10,0
                                                                                                                   0,0
                                                                                                                           10,0
                                                                                                                                          20,0
                                                                                                                                                 30,0
                              Past injustices are settled, future is
                                            important




                                                                                                                    2,6
                                                 There is no future




                                                                                                 -20,4




     History
                                     The future must be a priority                                                                  17,8
                                                                                                                                                        Utilities / Part Worth's




                                         RCC should be included
                                                                                               -22,7




                                        RCC should be consulted
                                                                                                                          8,3




                                          RCC must be excluded
                                                                                                                                  14,4




     Roman-Catholic church
                                      The state should determine
                                           maximum wage
                                                                                                                  -0,3
                                                                                                                                                                                   :: Slovenian parliamentary elections 2000




                                  The state should determine
                                maximum wage only state owned
                                          companies
                                                                                                                          9,5




     Equalitarianism                The state should not interfere
                                                                                                          -9,2




                               Every single individual should take
                                              care
                                                                               -39,9




                             The state and every single individual
                                      should take care
                                                                                                                                         19,7




                                The state should take care of the
     Welfare




                                      whole social welfare
                                                                                                                                         20,1




                             Stay if they are capable and qualified
                                                                                                                                         20,9




     Lustration




                                            We should remove all
37
                                                                                                -20,9
:: Slovenian parliamentary elections 2000


  • Max – Min horse race
      - Max purchase likelihood = 62,43%
      - Min purchase likelihood = 20,47%
      - Max : Min | 80,6% : 19,4%




                                            38
10
                                                                                             12




                                            0
                                                  2
                                                          4
                                                                     6
                                                                               8
                                                                                                                                                                           -16
                                                                                                                                                                                 -14
                                                                                                                                                                                         -12
                                                                                                                                                                                                  -10
                                                                                                                                                                                                            -8
                                                                                                                                                                                                                 -6
                                                                                                                                                                                                                        -4
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 -2
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          0
                                 Past                                                                                                                           Past
                              injustices                                                                                                                     injustices
                             are settled,                                                                                                                   are settled,




                                                  2,58
                                                                                                                                                                                                                        -3,63
                             There is no                                                                                                                    There is no
                               future




                                            0
                                                                                                                                                              future
                              The future

                                                                                                                                                                                                        -8,62
                                                                                                                                                             The future




     History
                                                                                                                                    History
                              must be a                                                                                                                      must be a
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        0




                               priority




                                                              5,4
                                                                                                                                                              priority



                                 RCC                                                                                                                             RCC
                              should be                                                                                                                      should be




                                            0
                               included                                                                                                                        included
                                                                                                                                                                                                        -8,44




                                 RCC                                                                                                                             RCC
                              should be                                                                                                                      should be




                                                                                                  Min = 20,47%, ABS % gain / loss
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                Max = 62,43%, ABS % gain / loss




                              consulted                                                                                                                       consulted




                                                          4,55
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                -1,87




                             RCC must                                                                                                                        RCC must
                                  be                                                                                                                              be
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        0




                              excluded                                                                                                                       excluded




                                                              5,36




     Roman-Catholic church
                                                                                                                                    Roman-Catholic church




                               The state                                                                                                                     The state
                                should                                                                                                                         should
                              determine                                                                                                                      determine




                                                1,95
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                -1,82




                               The state                                                                                                                     The state
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  :: Slovenian parliamentary elections 2000




                                should                                                                                                                         should
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        0




                              determine                                                                                                                      determine

                                                   2,66
                              The state                                                                                                                      The state
                              should not                                                                                                                     should not

                                            0




     Equalitarianism
                                                                                                                                    Equalitarianism




                               interfere                                                                                                                      interfere
                                                                                                                                                                                                                      -4,15




                                 Every                                                                                                                          Every
                                 single                                                                                                                         single
                                            0




                               individual                                                                                                                     individual
                                                                                                                                                                                 -13,5




                               The state                                                                                                                      The state
                              and every                                                                                                                      and every
                                 single                                                                                                                         single
                                                                                   9,89
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        -0,11




                              The state                                                                                                                      The state
     Welfare
                                                                                                                                    Welfare




                             should take                                                                                                                    should take
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        0




                             care of the                                                                                                                    care of the
                                                                                     10,31




                             Stay if they                                                                                                                   Stay if they
                             are capable                                                                                                                       are
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        0




                                 and                                                                                                                         capable
                                                                         6,8




                             We should                                                                                                                      We should
     Lustration
                                                                                                                                    Lustration




                             remove all
                                            0




                                                                                                                                                            remove all
39
                                                                                                                                                                                               -10,16
:: Slovenian parliamentary elections 2000


  • Issues positions to avoid / to put out
       - Where? (geography, not really applicable in Slovenia), to whom? (gender, age,...) ...
  • Voter‟s profile
  • (Respondent) Party identification profile
  • Handling “don‟t knows” or “refused to answer” modalities




                                                                                           40
::




     Slovenian presidential elections 2002




           Client: FDV
:: Slovenian presidential elections 2002


  • Determine issues relative importance to voters, the most and least popular
    position on each issue, the impact of a given position on voting behavior, and
    the relative strength of different candidate profiles.
       - To do that, we asked each respondent to rate a series of hypothetical pair of
         candidates who have either a „liberal‟, „centrist‟, or „conservative‟ position on each of
         four issue categories.
       - Issues were the subject of debate in the campaign, and the position descriptions
         were determined from positions that the candidates have actually taken and were
         exposed in the media.
  • Determine relative importance of demographic characteristics of a presidential
    candidate and the impact on voting behavior.
       - To do that, we asked each respondent to rate a series of hypothetical pair of
         candidates described with demographic characteristics.



  • C.A.T.I., issues n = 750, demo n = 786
  • ACA



                                                                                               42
:: Slovenian presidential elections 2002


  Political issues:                                       Demographic profile:
  3 attributes & a total of 7 levels:                     3 attributes & a total of 8 levels


  • History:                                              • Gender
       - Past injustices are settled, what is important        - Male
         is the future                                         - Female
       - There is no future unless we settle past         • Age
         injustices
                                                               - 40 yrs or younger
  • Roman-Catholic church                                      - Between 40 and 60 yrs old
       - RCC should take active part in the political          - Older than 60 yrs
         decision making                                  • Background
       - RCC should be consulted only with the                 - In Politics
         essential political issues                            - In Economy
       - RCC must be excluded from political sphere            - In other profession (health, science, culture,
  • Foreign policy                                               education, sport,...)
       - Joining NATO, EU and to open way for
         foreign investments takes careful                • 12 pair
         consideration of every step we make              • 2 / 3 attributes in pair
       - There should be no hesitation with joining
         NATO, EU and to open way for foreign
         investments


  • 10 pair
  • 2 / 3 attributes in pair
                                                                                                           43
:: Slovenian presidential elections 2002

    Relative importance of issues                                 Relative importance of demo



                                                                                Gender
                                                     Background
                                                                                17,1%
   Roman-Catholic                                      37,7%
      church                             History
      46,0%                              29,5%




                                    Foreign policy                                 Age
                                       24,5%                                      45,2%




                                                                                            44
-40,0
                                                                                                         -20,0
                                                                                                                   0,0
                                                                                                                                   20,0
                                                                                                                                                  40,0
                                                                                                                                                          60,0
                                                                                                                                                                        80,0
                               Past injustices are settled, future is
                                             important




                                                                                                                                          26,1
                                                          There is no future




     History
                                                                                                 -26,1
                                                RCC should take active part




                                                                                         -33,3
                                                  RCC should be consulted
                                                                                                                                                                               Issue Utilities / Part Worth's




                                                                                                 -24,8
                                                    RCC must be excluded
                                                                                                                                                         58,2




     Roman-Catholic church
                             NATO, EU, ... Careful consideration of
                                         every step
                                                                                                                                          25,9




                                                NATO, EU,... No hesitation




     Foreign policy
                                                                                                                                                                                                                :: Slovenian presidential elections 2002




                                                                                                 -25,9

                                                                              -60,0
                                                                                                     -40,0
                                                                                                                 -20,0
                                                                                                                                  0,0
                                                                                                                                                  20,0
                                                                                                                                                          40,0
                                                                                                                                                                        60,0




                                                                      Male
                                                                                                                                          7,1




                                                                   Female
                                   Gender
                                                                                                                           -7,1




                                                         40 yrs or younger
                                                                                                                         -10,2




                                                Between 40 and 60 yrs old
                                                                                                                                                                 51,5




                                   Age




                                                         Older than 60 yrs
                                                                                                   -41,3




                                                                In Politics
                                                                                                                                  -0,3




                                                              In Economy
                                                                                                                                                 19,7




45
                                   Background
                                                                                                                                                                               Demo Utilities / Part Worth's




                                                        In other profession
                                                                                                                 -19,4
:: Slovenian presidential elections 2002

   Winner Max purchase likelihood = 62,67%, ABS % gain / loss

     0,0
              0,0                                          0,0                                     0,0
    -2,0

                        -3,0
    -4,0
                                                                                      -4,1
    -6,0



    -8,0
                                                                                                                -7,1
   -10,0



   -12,0
                                             -11,2
   -14,0


   -16,0
                                                                       -16,5
   -18,0




           Male     Female             40 yrs or     Between 40 Older than     In Politics   In Economy    In other
                                       younger        and 60 yrs  60 yrs                                  profession
                                                         old
                    Gender                                       Age                         Background




  Male – Female horse race (same profile; 40-60 yrs old, background in economy)
           - Randomized First Choice rule:
  • Male : Female | 52,9% : 47,1%




                                                                                                               46
:: Slovenian presidential elections 2002


  Official result (2nd round)

  • J. Drnovšek = 56,54 %
  • B. Brezigar = 43,46 %



  Simulation:
  • J. Drnovšek
       (Male, 40-60 yrs old, background in politics):
                                    56,20%
  • B. Brezigar
       (Female, 40-60 yrs old, background in other profession /public prosecutor/):
                                    43,80%




                                                                                      47
::




     “Life is one big conjoint analysis . . . one tradeoff
      after another.”

     – Paul E. Green




                                                             48

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2009 which candidate will you buy cj v3.0 summer school in methods and techniques ljubljana 2009

  • 1. ::
  • 2. :: Which candidate will you ‘buy’? Conjoint Analysis, from marketing studies to electoral research Janko Hočevar & Toni Gril Summer School in Methods and Techniques 2009
  • 3. :: Agenda Part I. • Intro to Conjoint Analysis - Idea - History - Flavors Part II. • Conjoint Analysis in the context of political research • Case studies: - Slovenian parliamentary elections 2000 - Slovenian presidential elections 2002 • Q&A 3
  • 4. :: Part I. Intro to Conjoint Analysis Ask people what they want, and they say, “the best of everything”. Ask them what they would like to spend, and they say, “a little as possible”. – Bryan K. Orme
  • 5. :: Slide borrowed from: Batsell R., Chrzan K., Baggett S., SawtoothSoftware Conference, Barcelona 2008. 5
  • 6. :: Slide borrowed from: Batsell R., Chrzan K., Baggett S., SawtoothSoftware Conference, Barcelona 2008. 6
  • 7. :: Slide borrowed from: Batsell R., Chrzan K., Baggett S., SawtoothSoftware Conference, Barcelona 2008. 7
  • 8. :: John Slide borrowed from: Batsell R., Chrzan K., Baggett S., SawtoothSoftware Conference, Barcelona 2008. 8
  • 9. :: Mary Slide borrowed from: Batsell R., Chrzan K., Baggett S., SawtoothSoftware Conference, Barcelona 2008. 9
  • 10. :: Bubba Slide borrowed from: Batsell R., Chrzan K., Baggett S., SawtoothSoftware Conference, Barcelona 2008. 10
  • 11. :: Romantic 3,9 Sexy 3,8 Entertaining 4,4 Exciting 4,2 Calm 4,6 Laid back 4,2 Outdoorsy 4,2 Family-Oriented 4,5 Fancy 4,0 1 2 3 4 5 • Bias toward high importance in ratings • Lack of discrimination • Different respondents use the scale differently 11
  • 12. :: • Ask Direct Questions about preference: - What brand do you prefer? - What Interest Rate would you like? - What Annual Fee would you like? - What Credit Limit would you like? • Answers often trivial and unenlightening (e.g. respondents prefer low fees to high fees, higher credit limits to low credit limits) 12
  • 13. :: CA Idea • People cannot reliably express how they weight separate features of the product/service • But can evaluate the overall desirability of a complex product/service profile – a more realistic approach - Based on a function of the value of its separate (yet conjoined) parts • We can break product/services into features (attributes & their levels) • Based on how people evaluate the combined features (profiles) we can deduce the preference scores people might have assigned to individual features of the product/service - That are the result of those overall evaluations • A back-door, decompositional approach for estimating people‟s preferences, rather than an explicit approach of simply asking people to rate, rank, .. separate features 13
  • 14. :: CA Short History • Based on the work by: - Luce & Tukey in 60‟s Luce, D. & J. Tukey ,1964. Simultaneous conjoint measurement: A new type of fundamental measurement. Journal of Mathematical Psycchology - McFadden in 70‟s - Discrete choice methods McFadden, D. 1974. Conditional logit analysis of qualitative choice behavior. In P. Zarembka (ed.), Frontiers in Econometrics, pp. 105-142. New York: Academic Press. • Early 70s - work of P. Green: Green, P. & V. Rao 1971, August. Conjoint measurement for quantifying judgemental data. Journal of Marketing Research - work of R. Johnson: • Johnson, R. 1974, May. Trade-off analysis of consumer values. Journal of Marketing Research • 80‟s - Green & Wind: application of conjoint analysis to help Marriott design its new Couryard Hotel • S. Herman & Bretton-Clark software released software system - R. Johnson (at Sawtooth Software) released a software system Adaptive Conjoint Analysis (ACA) • 90‟s - Discrete Choice overtakes Traditional Conjoint methods • Commercial software released (SawtoothSoftware CBC) • Application of of hierarchical Bayes (HB) methods to estimate individual-level models from discrete choice data (led by G. Allenby of the Ohio State University) • 00‟s and beyond - Maximum-Difference Scaling - Adaptive Choice Based Conjoint (ACBC) software released by SawtoothSoftware in 2009 14
  • 15. :: Two broad types of CA • “Traditional” CA - uses data collected from sequential ratings, rankings or graded (rated) paired comparisons followed by an analysis using simple linear models - Use of “choice simulators” to predict individuals‟ preferences and choices • No Choices are observed • Choice-based Conjoint Analysis (CBC). - uses data collected from a series of choices (from “choice sets”), followed by an analysis using probabilistic choice models. - Use of choice simulators to predict individuals‟ preferences and choices • Choices are observed 15
  • 16. :: CA Terminology • Attribute - A feature of product/service: Brand, Price, Pack type,... • Attribute Level - A value or range of variation for an attribute: • Coca Cola, Pepsi,..., 0.5€, 0.6€,..., 0,33 l Can, 0,5 l Plastic Bottle • Profile / Concept - A combination of attribute levels: Coca-Cola at 0.5€ in a 0,33 l Can • Design - the attribute combinations that make up product/service profiles/concepts and how those profiles/concepts are combined within tasks. 16
  • 17. :: Design • Orthogonality: - each level appears an equal number of times with every other level of different attributes. (zero correlation between pairs of attributes) • Level Balance: - within each attribute, each level appears an equal number of times. • Minimal Overlap: - achieve maximum variation across levels of an attribute within a (choice) task (try not to repeat a level). • Designs which are orthogonal and balanced are optimally efficient. • In the real world: well-balanced, "nearly orthogonal“ designs 17
  • 18. :: CA Research Process • Identify attributes that underlie consumer preferences for products/services. • Select levels or values of each attribute to represent ranges of variation in real markets • Create product or service profiles generated from some type of experimental design • Administer to a sample of respondents • Analyze the data - Relative importance - Utilities or Part-Worth's - Simulations - Optimizations 18
  • 19. :: CA Data Analysis • Parameter estimates - OLS - MNL (HB) • Simulations - First choice rule - Purchase Likelihood - Share of Preference - Randomized First Choice 19
  • 20. :: Basic Flavors • CVA – Conjoint Value Analysis (traditional) - One or two full profile concepts - One design / experiment - Rating - OLS - Individual parameter estimation 20
  • 21. :: Basic Flavors • ACA – Adaptive Conjoint Analysis - Two partial profile concepts - Concepts complexity manipulation - Unique individual design / experiment - Starting point from direct (self-explicated) input - Rating - OLS - Individual parameter estimation 21
  • 24. :: Paired comparison section 24
  • 26. :: • CBC – Choice Based Conjoint - Two or more concepts - Full or partial profile - Multiple designs / experiments - Alternative specific designs - Fixed / Constant alternatives • (e.i. I wouldn‟t buy anything; I‟d stay with my current service; NONE) - Choices, allocations (Constant Sum allocation) - Group / Semi-individual parameter estimation (MNL HB) 26
  • 27. :: A Choice Task 27
  • 30. :: What can we do with Conjoint data? • Base case predictions linked with descriptive data - who chooses what? • Great input for segmentation (cluster analysis, latent class,...) • Simulations (what if?) - Sensitivity analysis (what if? systematically) • Optimizations (best configurations) • A simulator mimics a certain situation, that may or may not happen in reality (like a flight simulator). • The purpose is to estimate the probable effects of products/services. • For this, the simulator needs input - Data to describe the situation (scenario definition) - Data on how consumers react (utilities from conjoint) - Definition of the calculation • Changing (part of) this data will result in new scenarios and new output 30
  • 31. :: Part II. Conjoint Analysis in the context of political research Case studies: Slovenian parliamentary elections 2000 Slovenian presidential elections 2002
  • 32. :: The premise • The outcome of presidential or party contest is influenced by many factors - party identification, candidate personality, campaign strategy and tactics, financing, etc. • In a real „purchase situation‟, „consumers‟ do not make choices based on a single attribute. Consumers examine a range of features or attributes and then make judgments or trade-offs to determine their final purchase choice. • This is just as true for the „choice‟ made in political situations, such as assessing the viability of a candidate, determining the support of various political, economic, social issues. Product: • Candidate (not „branded‟) / Political Party (not „branded‟ but with issues positions) • Political Parties / Candidates are: - Managed as Products/Services - Advertised as Poroduct/Services - Communicated as Products/Services 32
  • 33. :: Slovenian parliamentary elections 2000 Client: The Mladina Magazine
  • 34. :: Slovenian parliamentary elections 2000 • Determine issues relative importance to voters, the most and least popular position on each issue, the impact of a given position on voting behavior, and the relative strength of different candidate profiles. • To do that, we asked each respondent to rate a series of hypothetical pair of candidates who have either a „liberal‟, „centrist‟, or „conservative‟ position on each of 5 issue categories. • Issues were the subject of debate in the campaign, and the position descriptions were determined from positions that the candidates have actually taken and were exposed in the media. • C.A.T.I., n = 601 • ACA 34
  • 35. :: Slovenian parliamentary elections 2000 5 attributes & a total of 14 levels: • History: • Welfare - Past injustices are settled, what is important - Every single individual should take care of is the future his/hers social welfare (health care, pension - There is no future unless we settle past welfare,...) injustices - The state and every single individual should - The future must be a priority, but we must take care of social welfare never forget the past injustices - The state should take care of the whole social welfare of its citizens • Roman-Catholic church • Lustration - RCC should be included in the political - Those who were appointed to management decision making positions by the former political system, - RCC should be consulted only with the should stay there if they are capable and essential political issues qualified - RCC must be excluded from political sphere - We should remove all those who were appointed to management positions by the • Equalitarianism former political system - The state should determine maximum wage of all managers in all companies - The state should determine maximum wage only of managers in state owned companies • 10 pair - The state should not interfere with managers • 2 attributes in pair wages 35
  • 36. :: Slovenian parliamentary elections 2000 Relative importance of issues Lustration 15,5% Welfare 22,9% Equalitarianism 19,7% Roman-Catholic church 21,6% History 20,3% 36
  • 37. -50,0 -40,0 -30,0 -20,0 -10,0 0,0 10,0 20,0 30,0 Past injustices are settled, future is important 2,6 There is no future -20,4 History The future must be a priority 17,8 Utilities / Part Worth's RCC should be included -22,7 RCC should be consulted 8,3 RCC must be excluded 14,4 Roman-Catholic church The state should determine maximum wage -0,3 :: Slovenian parliamentary elections 2000 The state should determine maximum wage only state owned companies 9,5 Equalitarianism The state should not interfere -9,2 Every single individual should take care -39,9 The state and every single individual should take care 19,7 The state should take care of the Welfare whole social welfare 20,1 Stay if they are capable and qualified 20,9 Lustration We should remove all 37 -20,9
  • 38. :: Slovenian parliamentary elections 2000 • Max – Min horse race - Max purchase likelihood = 62,43% - Min purchase likelihood = 20,47% - Max : Min | 80,6% : 19,4% 38
  • 39. 10 12 0 2 4 6 8 -16 -14 -12 -10 -8 -6 -4 -2 0 Past Past injustices injustices are settled, are settled, 2,58 -3,63 There is no There is no future 0 future The future -8,62 The future History History must be a must be a 0 priority 5,4 priority RCC RCC should be should be 0 included included -8,44 RCC RCC should be should be Min = 20,47%, ABS % gain / loss Max = 62,43%, ABS % gain / loss consulted consulted 4,55 -1,87 RCC must RCC must be be 0 excluded excluded 5,36 Roman-Catholic church Roman-Catholic church The state The state should should determine determine 1,95 -1,82 The state The state :: Slovenian parliamentary elections 2000 should should 0 determine determine 2,66 The state The state should not should not 0 Equalitarianism Equalitarianism interfere interfere -4,15 Every Every single single 0 individual individual -13,5 The state The state and every and every single single 9,89 -0,11 The state The state Welfare Welfare should take should take 0 care of the care of the 10,31 Stay if they Stay if they are capable are 0 and capable 6,8 We should We should Lustration Lustration remove all 0 remove all 39 -10,16
  • 40. :: Slovenian parliamentary elections 2000 • Issues positions to avoid / to put out - Where? (geography, not really applicable in Slovenia), to whom? (gender, age,...) ... • Voter‟s profile • (Respondent) Party identification profile • Handling “don‟t knows” or “refused to answer” modalities 40
  • 41. :: Slovenian presidential elections 2002 Client: FDV
  • 42. :: Slovenian presidential elections 2002 • Determine issues relative importance to voters, the most and least popular position on each issue, the impact of a given position on voting behavior, and the relative strength of different candidate profiles. - To do that, we asked each respondent to rate a series of hypothetical pair of candidates who have either a „liberal‟, „centrist‟, or „conservative‟ position on each of four issue categories. - Issues were the subject of debate in the campaign, and the position descriptions were determined from positions that the candidates have actually taken and were exposed in the media. • Determine relative importance of demographic characteristics of a presidential candidate and the impact on voting behavior. - To do that, we asked each respondent to rate a series of hypothetical pair of candidates described with demographic characteristics. • C.A.T.I., issues n = 750, demo n = 786 • ACA 42
  • 43. :: Slovenian presidential elections 2002 Political issues: Demographic profile: 3 attributes & a total of 7 levels: 3 attributes & a total of 8 levels • History: • Gender - Past injustices are settled, what is important - Male is the future - Female - There is no future unless we settle past • Age injustices - 40 yrs or younger • Roman-Catholic church - Between 40 and 60 yrs old - RCC should take active part in the political - Older than 60 yrs decision making • Background - RCC should be consulted only with the - In Politics essential political issues - In Economy - RCC must be excluded from political sphere - In other profession (health, science, culture, • Foreign policy education, sport,...) - Joining NATO, EU and to open way for foreign investments takes careful • 12 pair consideration of every step we make • 2 / 3 attributes in pair - There should be no hesitation with joining NATO, EU and to open way for foreign investments • 10 pair • 2 / 3 attributes in pair 43
  • 44. :: Slovenian presidential elections 2002 Relative importance of issues Relative importance of demo Gender Background 17,1% Roman-Catholic 37,7% church History 46,0% 29,5% Foreign policy Age 24,5% 45,2% 44
  • 45. -40,0 -20,0 0,0 20,0 40,0 60,0 80,0 Past injustices are settled, future is important 26,1 There is no future History -26,1 RCC should take active part -33,3 RCC should be consulted Issue Utilities / Part Worth's -24,8 RCC must be excluded 58,2 Roman-Catholic church NATO, EU, ... Careful consideration of every step 25,9 NATO, EU,... No hesitation Foreign policy :: Slovenian presidential elections 2002 -25,9 -60,0 -40,0 -20,0 0,0 20,0 40,0 60,0 Male 7,1 Female Gender -7,1 40 yrs or younger -10,2 Between 40 and 60 yrs old 51,5 Age Older than 60 yrs -41,3 In Politics -0,3 In Economy 19,7 45 Background Demo Utilities / Part Worth's In other profession -19,4
  • 46. :: Slovenian presidential elections 2002 Winner Max purchase likelihood = 62,67%, ABS % gain / loss 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 -2,0 -3,0 -4,0 -4,1 -6,0 -8,0 -7,1 -10,0 -12,0 -11,2 -14,0 -16,0 -16,5 -18,0 Male Female 40 yrs or Between 40 Older than In Politics In Economy In other younger and 60 yrs 60 yrs profession old Gender Age Background Male – Female horse race (same profile; 40-60 yrs old, background in economy) - Randomized First Choice rule: • Male : Female | 52,9% : 47,1% 46
  • 47. :: Slovenian presidential elections 2002 Official result (2nd round) • J. Drnovšek = 56,54 % • B. Brezigar = 43,46 % Simulation: • J. Drnovšek (Male, 40-60 yrs old, background in politics): 56,20% • B. Brezigar (Female, 40-60 yrs old, background in other profession /public prosecutor/): 43,80% 47
  • 48. :: “Life is one big conjoint analysis . . . one tradeoff after another.” – Paul E. Green 48