1. SustainableLifestyles2050
D4.1FutureScenariosforNewEuropeanSocialModelswithVisualisations
20152020203020402050
Scenariosfor
SustainableLifestyles
2050:
FromGlobalChampionstoLocalLoops

2. 2|SPREADSustainableLifestyles2050
AboutSPREADSustainableLifestyles2050
ReportPrincipalAuthors:JuhaLeppänen(DemosHelsinki),AleksiNeuvonen
(DemosHelsinki),MariaRitola(DemosHelsinki),InkaAhola(DemosHelsinki),
SiniHirvonen(DemosHelsinki),MikaHyötyläinen(DemosHelsinki),Tuuli
Kaskinen(DemosHelsinki),TommiKauppinen(DemosHelsinki),OutiKuittinen
(DemosHelsinki),KaisaKärki(DemosHelsinki),MichaelLettenmeier(Demos
Helsinki/D-mat),RoopeMokka(DemosHelsinki)
Withinputsfromtheprojectconsortiumandprojectadvisors
ReportVisualisation:FrancoisJegou(StrategicDesignScenarios/Politec-
nicodiMilano),AdèleSeyrig(StrategicDesignScenarios),MartaCorubolo
(PolitecnicodiMilano),AnnaMeroni(PolitecnicodiMilano),Christophe
Gouache(StrategicDesignScenarios)
ReportLayout:KirmoKivelä(DemosHelsinki)
ProjectCoordinator:
UNEP/WuppertalInstituteCollaborating
CentreonSustainableConsumptionandProduction(CSCP)
HagenauerStraße30.42107Wuppertal.Germany
Tel+49.202.45958-17
Fax+49.202.45958-30
www.scp-centre.org
CherylHicks,ProjectDirector:cheryl.hicks@scp-centre.org
NoraBrüggemann,ProjectManager:nora.brueggemann@scp-centre.org
ProjectConsortium:
Ashoka,BelgiumandFrance
DemosHelsinki(Demos),Finland
EcoinstitutBarcelona(ECOI),Spain
EnergyresearchCentreoftheNetherlands(ECN)
EuroHealthNet
PolitecnicodiMilano(Polimi),Italy
RegionalEnvironmentalCenterforCEEcountries(REC),Hungary
TheInternationalInstituteforIndustrialEnvironmentalEconomicsatLund
University(ULUND),Sweden
TheNorthernAllianceforSustainability(ANPED),Belgium
ECDeskOfficer:
PerlaSrour-Gandon,DomenicoRossettidiValdalbero
Duration:1January2011to31December2012
Fundingscheme:EuropeanCommission’sSeventhFramework
Programme(CoordinationandSupportAction):
Socio-economicSciencesandHumanities
Budget:EUcontribution1,423,082
Website:www.sustainable-lifestyles.eu
Onlinecommunity:www.sustainable-lifestyles.eu/community
SustainableLifestyles2050
ProjectCoordinator
FundingScheme
ProjectConsortium
Contents
WhatisSPREADSustainableLifestyles20503
Unsustainablelifestyleimpactstobeovercome
by2050:Keyfindingsoftheproject’s
baselineresearch4
Ourscenariosonsustainablelifestyles6
Thebackcastingmethod7
Thesustainablelifestyle=8000kgperannum8
Fourscenarios,twocriticaluncertainties10
Howdidwegethere?12
Fourscenariostosustainablelifestyles2012–2050
SingularSuperChampions15
GoverningtheCommons25
LocalLoops35
EmpatheticCommunities45
Comparingfouralternativescenarios
onsustainablelifestyles
Matrixonlifestyledifferencesin
thefourscenarios56
HowdidtheSPREADscenariosreach
lifestylesof8000kgmaterialfootprint?58
AppendixA:SPREADSustainableLifestyles
2050DelphisurveyQuestionnaires60
AppendixB:SPREADSustainableLifestyles
2050CountingBackwardsWorkshop62
References63

3. ScenariosforSustainableLifestyles2050:FromGlobalChampionstoLocalLoops|3
WhatisSPREADSustainableLifestyles2050
SPREADSustainableLifestyles2050isaEuro-
peansocialplatformprojectrunningfromJanu-
ary2011toDecember2012.Differentsocietal
stakeholders–frombusiness,research,policy
andcivilsociety–havebeeninvitedtopartici-
pateinthedevelopmentofavisionforsustain-
ablelifestylesin2050.Thisprocesswillresultin
aroadmapforstrategicactionthatwillidentify
opportunityspacesforpolicy,business,re-
searchandcivilsocietytotakeactiontoenable
moresustainablelifestylesacrossEurope.
Howtospreadsustainablelifestyles?
BasedonGeels2002
Landscapelevel
Regimelevel
Nichelevel
Promising
practicePromising
practice
Societalvalues,
overallparadigms,
megatrends
Embedding
Multiplying
Upscaling
Markets,
Science,
PoliciesMarkets,
Science,
Policies
Markets,
Science,
Policies
Howdoesitwork?
Comments
Comments
Consuming
Consuming
•collectivekitchensopentofood-groupmembersarediffusedall
aroundthecity.Foodfacilitiesareinfactservicesthatallowpeople
tosavetimeinpreparingfoodwhileincreasingthequalityoffood
prepared;
•everyfoodfacilitygathersafoodgroupthatagreesonaweeklyfood
scheme:eachmemberisinchargeofpreparingaspecificcourseofa
meal,andcooksitforallthemembers.Inreturnhe/shereceivesthe
portionsoftheothercoursespreparedbytheothermembers.
“...tortillasaretheonlyfoodI’mreallyquitegoodatand,
luckily,theyarequiteversatile.TodayIhavepreparedstewed
vegetablesasfillingand…voilà..aperfectdish!..Philip
preparedthesalad,andMariathedessert.Afulldinnerisfinally
readyformeandmylittleJody:Ijustneedtopickitupfromthe
foodfacilityandlaythetable.”
Eduardo,41,designer,singleparentwithadaughter
FOODFACILITY
Howdoesitwork?
•themixoffoodproductionhaschanged:domesticproduction,
condominiumurbanfarmingareas,neighborhood,peri-urbanand
nationalproductionandsomeinternationalimportation
•itiscalledurbanfooddistrictplanning.Thecityisnowdividedinto
fooddistrictsthatmustbeasself-sufficientaspossible.Eachfood
districtreliesforacertainquotaonselfproductionoffoodandfor
therestonlocalfarmsandproducers.
•urbanneighborhoodsaretwinnedwithperi-urbanfarmsandfood-
hubssothatfoodproductionandconsumptionarerelated,mutual
commitmentandmutualresponsibility.
•awellconnectedfoodsupplychainisnecessary,whichcanhelp
consumersgettheclosestresourcesandswitchwithacertain
flexibility;
“…wehavethechancetoliveinacitywherethemunicipality
hasdecidedtointroducethefooddistrictplanninginitiative.
Ourfoodmixmustbeatleastnearly50%locallyproduced
and10%self-producedamongneighbours:garlicisgrowing
onthebalcony,cucumbersdownstairs,tomatoescomefrom
neighbours’vegetablegardens,commutersbringfreshdairy
productsfromsuburbanareasintodowntown.Istillgotolocal
supermarkets,onceinawhileImaybuysomeimportedfood…”
Martha,36,motherofa3childrenfamily
URBANFOOD
DISTRICTPLANNING
Comments
Comments
Living
Living
Howdoesitwork?
•sustainableactiveeducationgoesthroughthenormaleducation
circle,activitybasedlearningprojectshavebecomepartofthe
formaleducationmethod;
••farmingclassesandotherbasicknowledgearoundsustainablefood
aremandatoryateveryeducationleveltoprepareawarecitizensable
totakepartactivelyinco-productionofthefoodtheywilleat;
•theclassroomisnolongertheonlyplacetolearn.Schoolcampuses
aredevelopedwithfarming,foodtransformationandpreparation
facilities;
•schoolcanteensaresuppliedwithvegetablescultivatedinthe
garden.
Ivan,15-year-old,middleschoolstudent
“…InourschoolthereisavegetablegardenwhereI’ve
beenattendingfarmingclasssinceprimaryschool,andI’ve
alwaysdoneverywell.Iknowlotsoflocalcropsandfarming
knowledge.Theteachersteachushowtoplantandharvest,we
haveregularfarmingworkinthevegetablegarden,andour
generationfeelsthereforeperfectlycomfortablewithtaking
partinurbanfarmingtoproduceonthespotpartofthefruits
andveggiesweconsume...”
ACTIVEFARMINGCLASSES
Howdoesitwork?
•jobsaredesignedasfaraspossibletoallowremoteworkingand
reducecommutingincities;
•neighbourhoodsareequippedwithdifferenttypesofdistant
workingfacilities;
•socializationisamixoflocalandremoteconnectionswithdistant
workingpartnersandneighboursemployedbydifferentcompanies;
•whereyouworkismoreandmoreperceivedascompletelydetached
fromwhoyouworkfor;
•peopleenjoychangingsocial/physicalenvironmentsespeciallyfor
boringtasks.
“...whereamIgoingtoworktoday?It’saquestionIaskmyself
nearlyeverymorning:wehaveplentyofco-workingoptionsat
awalkingdistanceinthearea.Iusedtogotosomeofthework-
caféswhenIstartedmyfirstjob:amessyenvironment,lotsof
peopletomeet!NowIprefertocycletoltheparktochange
atmosphereorstayonthefirstfloorofthecondominiumwhere
myoldmumlives2blocksaway...”
WangYong,24,agentinacallcenter
REMOTE
CO-WORKINGSPACES
Howdoesitwork?Comments
Comments
Society
Society
Howdoesitwork?
•goingtopublic/privatehospitalisgettingmoreandmoreexpensive
andalsocarriestheriskofcontractingdiseaseswhenstayingin
hospital;
•fornon-emergencies,homehospitalisthenorm:stayingathome
andsupportedbyaseriesofremotehealthmeasuredevices,rented
self-medicationappliancesandneighborhoodsocialcarenetworks;
•healthcareprovidersprovideongoingmedicalsupportathomeand
remotetreatmentwithappropriatetechnology;
•‘eHealth’helpstoincreasepublicmedicalknowledgeand
participationintreatmentalsoreducinghealthcosts;
•especiallychronicpatientsandelderlypeoplecanstayathomefor
longer.
“...goingtohospitalnowadaysmostlymeansstayingathome!
ButathomeIcanmeetthedoctoronlineandgetthesupportof
theneighborhoodsocialcarenetwork..Icanbesupportedalso
byaseriesofremotehealthmeasuredevices,self-medication
appliancestemporarilyrentedfromthelocalhealthcarecenter,
andgetadvicefromformerpatientsfromtheneighborhood...”
Gianna,68-year-old,suburbaninhabitant,retired
HOMEHOSPITAL
•hugecostsinducedbybadsustainablemanagementand
catastropherelatedincreasesinducepeopletopaymoreandmore
attentiontowhatisdonewiththeirmoney;
•aftermanyfinancialcrisesduetolackofinvestmentregulations,
transparencyisthenormthatalsobenefitssustainableprojects;
•sustainableresponsibility,ethicalwealthandfairbankingcriteria
isthenormonthefinancialmarket;investmentsaremadeonlyfor
sustainableproposals.
“…taxesonpersonalincomeroselikemadtocoverdroughts
hereandtsunamisthereandcatastrophesaftersilly
urbanizationprojectsinmega-cities:nowIprefertoearnless,
withgreenandfairinvestmentsbutIwanttoknowwhatmy
moneyisusedforandIwanttobeabletojudgemyselfifthe
projectsfinancedwillbegoodornotforthefutureofmykids…”
Andrea,37-year-old,fatherofthe3childrenfamily
CLEANMONEY
Howdoesitwork?
Comments
Comments
Moving
Moving
Howdoesitwork?
•urbanplanningtowardslesscaraccessibleneighborhoods,mixed
livingandcommercialzonesenablingmorewalkingandcycling;
•developmentofrentingschemesfordifferentsizedtrolleysfor
thetransportationofgoodsbypedestrians,fromsimpleweekly
shoppingtosecondhandfurnitureexchangeormovinghomeat
walkingdistance;
•parkingstations,wheretrolleyscanberentedfortransportand
returned,areavailableinallsuperblocksinthecity.
“…normallygetourweeklyveggieboxdeliveredtoourhome,
Ijusttakealittletrolleyfromthecornerstationandtakeit
backtothestationjustbelowthehouse;buttoday,givenall
theshoppingfortheparty,weneedatleastacargo-trolley,the
sameasweusedtomovegrandmafromherformerflattothe
roomnearwherewelivenow…”
Tanja,29,singlemotheroftwochildren
URBANMOBILITYOF
GOODS
•densificationofcitiesandnewurbanizationmodelslimitmegacities
andurbansprawl;
•promotionofmediumsizedenseurbanenvironmentswithdense
publictransportsystemsinfrastructureinsidethecityandhigh-
speedtrainconnectionsbetweencities;
•urbanplanningstandardsbasedonsuccessionofhighdensity
lodgingandzerodensitygreen/leisureareas;
•newarchitecturemovementsfollowingideaslike‘downtowninthe
forest’or‘thehigh-rise/urbanagriculturemix’...
•changingtherelationshipbetweenparksandgreenareaswithin
urbanplanningasapatternmadeofhigh-riseblocksandforests
blocks.
“…Iamlivinginahigh-risevillageintheforest:itlooksabitlike
you’vetakensomeblocksofManhattanandsettledthemdeep
intheforestinCornwall.AtthebeginningIdidintobelievethat
this‘zerodensity’breathingzonesplanningwouldberespected.
NowIhavetheofferofarealcityintermsofworkopportunities
andculturallifeatawalkingdistanceandsurroundedbyreal
woodsorwheatfields.AndItakethespeedtrainifreallyIhave
togotothenexthigh-risevillage...”
Misaku,31,physician
HIGH-RISEVILLAGES
Howdoesitwork?Comments
Comments
Society
Society
Howdoesitwork?
•goingtopublic/privatehospitalisgettingmoreandmoreexpensive
andalsocarriestheriskofcontractingdiseaseswhenstayingin
hospital;
•fornon-emergencies,homehospitalisthenorm:stayingathome
andsupportedbyaseriesofremotehealthmeasuredevices,rented
self-medicationappliancesandneighborhoodsocialcarenetworks;
•healthcareprovidersprovideongoingmedicalsupportathomeand
remotetreatmentwithappropriatetechnology;
•‘eHealth’helpstoincreasepublicmedicalknowledgeand
participationintreatmentalsoreducinghealthcosts;
•especiallychronicpatientsandelderlypeoplecanstayathomefor
longer.
“...goingtohospitalnowadaysmostlymeansstayingathome!
ButathomeIcanmeetthedoctoronlineandgetthesupportof
theneighborhoodsocialcarenetwork..Icanbesupportedalso
byaseriesofremotehealthmeasuredevices,self-medication
appliancestemporarilyrentedfromthelocalhealthcarecenter,
andgetadvicefromformerpatientsfromtheneighborhood...”
Gianna,68-year-old,suburbaninhabitant,retired
HOMEHOSPITAL
•hugecostsinducedbybadsustainablemanagementand
catastropherelatedincreasesinducepeopletopaymoreandmore
attentiontowhatisdonewiththeirmoney;
•aftermanyfinancialcrisesduetolackofinvestmentregulations,
transparencyisthenormthatalsobenefitssustainableprojects;
•sustainableresponsibility,ethicalwealthandfairbankingcriteria
isthenormonthefinancialmarket;investmentsaremadeonlyfor
sustainableproposals.
“…taxesonpersonalincomeroselikemadtocoverdroughts
hereandtsunamisthereandcatastrophesaftersilly
urbanizationprojectsinmega-cities:nowIprefertoearnless,
withgreenandfairinvestmentsbutIwanttoknowwhatmy
moneyisusedforandIwanttobeabletojudgemyselfifthe
projectsfinancedwillbegoodornotforthefutureofmykids…”
Andrea,37-year-old,fatherofthe3childrenfamily
CLEANMONEY
Howdoesitwork?
Howdoesitwork?
Comments
Comments
Consuming
Consuming
•meatonceaweekinavegetariandietisthenorm;
•theweeklymeatfeast,Sundayisthecelebrationdayformeat,feasts
areorganizedathome;
•meatisgettingmoreexpensive,soitisactuallyapleasureandluxury
thatcanbeaffordedonlyonceaweek;
•alow-animalproteindiethasbeenpromotedbybothgovernments
andsocialcommunitiesduetofoodcrisis,economicreasonsand
necessaryshifttomoresustainablefoodconsumption.
“…allthefamilygatherstogetheringrandma’shouseon
Sundaymorning,tocelebratethemeatfeast.Grandmacooks
sometraditionalmeatdishesthatIdon’teatsooften...Usually
athomewedonoteatmeatandatschoolwehaveagreen-
vegetablecanteen...Itisgoodtoenjoysomemeatonceina
while.I’lltrynottoeattoomuchtoday...”
Lily,10yearold,primaryschoolgirl,describingSundaymeat
feastatgrandma’splace
THEMEATFEAST
•theWisePersonalFoodShoppersystemcananalyzeuser’sgenetic
dataandfitahealthydiettohis/herfoodchoices;
•thesystemcanbeaccessedfromanyportabledeviceineveryfood
retailplaceandrestaurant;
•thedevicedisplayspropertiesoffoodtheuserwouldliketoeator
purchase;includesitinthedietbalance;showsquantityneeded/
allowed;
•ithelpstomakesmartandrightpurchasechoices,toraiseindividual
awarenessofresponsiblediet,consumelesshigh-caloriefood,more
localfood,organicfood…andenhancesustainablelifestyles…
“...Ihavejustrecoveredfromsurgeryandwiththemixofdrugs
foraftertreatmentIcanonlyeatcertainkindsoffood...The
hospitalleasemeaWisePersonalFoodShoppersettomy
exactdietandit’sareliefwhendoingmyshopping.Ifeelsafe
forobservingmydietandwithcombinedrecipessuggested,
cookinglessonsandinformationonfoodoriginsit’salsomuch
easiertoachieveasustainablediet.IthinkIwilluseitalsoafter
theendofthetherapyasaguideinmydailylife…”
Elisa,58-year-old,citizen
W.P.F.S.WISEPERSONAL
FOODSHOPPER
Howdoesitwork?
Comments
Comments
Living
Living
•sustainabilityeducationisembeddedindailylivingintheformof
activeeducation,projectbasedlearning...;
•friendlyperiodsspentincontactwiththerealworldformthebasisof
‘learningforlife’education;
•‘learningforlife’,meaningacquiringbasicknowledgeonnatural
cycles,bio-diversity,regenerationprocesses,self-production...
takesplaceonthefield,incontactwithcommunities,families,
professionals...;
•manypublicandprivateinstitutionsdealingwithsustainableissues
providebasiceducationontopoftheirmainactivities.
“...Thecurriculumforsustainableeducationinourschoolis
basedon25micro-internshipsperyearconsistingindayorhalf-
daytripstoorganicfarms,re-designandrecyclingcompanies,
newtraditionalcraftsmanworkshops,wildlifeprotection
projects,humanitarianprograms...wherewegetintouchand
learnthebasicsaboutgrowingfood,providinggoodsand
service,self-production,naturepreservation…”
Jenny,9yearold,primaryschoolpupil
SUSTAINABLE
COMPANIONSHIP
Howdoesitwork?
•strivingtosteergeneralbehaviourtowardssustainablelifestyles
constitutesadiffuseddynamiccontextprovidinglearning
opportunitiesatanymomentindailyliving;
•thesystemworksbyrewardinggoodbehaviour
•pervasiveITinproductsandaugmentedenvironmentsprovides
feedbacktostimulatesustainableliving,whichplaysasateaching
environmentthatchangesaccordingtoageandsituation;
•distancelearning,usingmoretraditionalformsofeducation,enables
stillopenquestionstobeansweredandintegratesalltheknowledge
inthestudentportfolio;
•thislearningprocessstartswithprimaryeducationandgoesonfor
life.
“...kidsnolongerrelyonlyonschoolsfortheireducation:
thelayerofITembeddedinourdailylifeisprovidingavery
responsiveanddiffuseddidacticenvironmentforthemand
sustainabilityissuesarepresenteverywhereintheday-to-day
environment,fromtheenergysmartmeterdisplayathometo
thewaterharvestingcontrolsystemintheneighborhood,from
theintermodalmobilityorganizertothedistributedairquality
controlscheme...Everythingworksforthemjustlikeareward-
basedgametoplay.”
Arold,44yearsold,primaryschoolcoach
LIFE-LONG
SUSTAINABILITYLEARNING
Howdoesitwork?Comments
Moving
•automaticcarswithoutdriver;
•dedicatedonlineandmobileapplicationforfullypersonalizedpath;
•market-basedservice:partnershipbetweentelecommunications
companies,privatetaxisandlocaltransportcompanies
“..IlovemyworkandIlovetohaveandgiveallthebestIcan.
I’musedtoreachingclientsandIlovetobeefficientandto
spendwithcustomersallthetimeneededtogetintuneandin
ordertoestablishapleasantrelationship.That’swhyIusually
movearoundthecitybytheLuxurytaxiservice,itisbrilliant!
Myproviderofferstheserviceincludedinthebusinessmobile
account:automaticsupercarswithoutdriversbringyou
everywhereaccordingtopersonalizedpathsthatyoucanplan
andredefinealongtheway…”
Cinthia,45,prêtaporterstylist
LUXURYTAXISERVICE
CommentsHowdoesitwork?
Moving
•multi-sitspedal-poweredschoolbusandtransportserviceswith
differentseatsandratesfortheneighborhood;
•cleanenergyproductionfortransportation;
•eco-mindedschoolbusandeducationalaspectoftheservice
(strengtheningawareness).
“…IhurtmyselfplayingandIhavemyleginplaster.Every
morning,whenIgotoschoolwithmyschool-matestheyride
thepedalvehicleasusualproducingalotofenergy,whileI’m
sittingintheseatswithoutpedalsnearMissMarple,theold
neighbourwiththatstrangesmell…I’mlookingforwardto
goingriding!...”
Fabio,5yearsold,disabledchild
MULTI-SITSPEDAL
VEHICLES
Howdoesitwork?
Howdoesitwork?
Comments
Comments
Society
Society
•findhelpfromthosearoundyou:whoiswhereandavailabletodo
what;
•localboundsarestrengthenedbymeansofcommunicationtools,
intelligentsensorsandgeo-localizationdevices;
•activateinstantsupportandclosehelpincaseofneed;
•districtpersonalnetworksareestablished.
“Imovedyesterday,everythingseemsfreshtome,sadlyagain,
mydesklampwasbrokenthismorning,Ishouldchangethe
lightbulbimmediately,comeon,Istillhavecommitmentsto
fulfillbeforetomorrow.WherecanIbuyabulbnearby?Ijoined
thecommunitynetworkwhenImovedhere.MaybeIcanaskfor
helpthere…”
Li,25
SELFEMPOWERMENT
CIRCLES
•personalisationofmedicinesisnowadaysastandardpractice;
•everybodyhasapersonalID_DNAcardthatcontains:theirgenetic
mapandbiologicaldata,butalsotheirdailydiet,theirhabits,their
sportingaptitudeandthehistoryoftheirfamily;
•everydoctororspecialisthasaccesstoitinordertogetacomplete
overviewofthepatient’life;
•thecardenablesfullpersonalisationofmedicinesandhealing
solutions,combiningpharmaceuticalandsocialremedies.
“...MymumsaysthatwhenIwasborn,justbeforegoinghome
fromthehospital,shereceivedmypersonalID_DNAcard.Itis
averyspecialIdcard:itcontainsallthehistoryofmyfamily
anditwillcontainalsomyhistory.SowhenIwillneedsome
medicines,thedoctorswillalreadyknoweverythingandthey
willbuildaspecialtherapyjustforme...”
Paolo,9,primaryschoolstudent
ID-DNACARD
Promising
practice
Inrecentyears,wehavewitnessedtheemer-
genceofmoresustainableproducts,services
andexperimentalbottom-upinitiatives.They
havesignalednewhopethatmoresustainable
waysoflivingareachievableforall,whilecel-
ebratingdiversity,inpost-industrialsocieties.
Despitethesedevelopments,existingpromising
sustainablelivingpracticesarenotenough.They
remaindwarfedbytheunsustainableimpactsof
theaverageEuropean’scurrentlifestyles.
Toovercomethecurrentchallengesofourun-
sustainablelifestyles,theSPREADprojecthas
developedfuturescenariosofpossiblesocieties
thatsupportmoresustainablewaysofliving.

4. 4|SPREADSustainableLifestyles2050
Unsustainablelifestyleimpacts
tobeovercomeby2050:
Keyfindingsoftheproject’s
baselineresearch
TheSPREADproject’sjourneytofuturesce-
nariosformoresustainablelifestylesbeganby
takingstockofexistingknowledgeonsustain-
ablelifestyles.Throughthisinitialresearchwe
identifiedthechallengesandbarrierstomore
sustainablelivingtoday,aswellaspromising
trends,driversandopportunitiestoencourage
moresustainablewaysoflivinginthefuture.
Theresultsofthisbaselineresearchcanbe
foundinourprojectreport,“SustainableLife-
styles:Today’sFactsandTomorrow’sTrends”.
ModernEuropeanlifestylesareunsustainable.
Theyhavebecomeassociatedwithoverproduc-
tionandoverconsumption.Theimpactsofour
lifestylesareputtingtoomuchpressureonour
naturalresourcesandhaveadverseenvironmen-
tal,economic,socialandhealtheffects.
Thereportrevealsthatlifestyleandhousehold
consumptionformasignificantpartofsociety’s
environmentalburdenasawhole.Inrecent
years,sustainablelifestylechoiceshavestarted
tobecomeamorerelevantandaccessibleop-
tionforsomeEuropeanconsumersthankstoa
riseinlocalisedsocialinnovationexperiments,
theimprovedsupplyofeco-efficientgoodsand
services,andincreasedcoverageofsustainabil-
ityissuesinthemediaraisingawarenessinthe
publicdebate.Wecallthesesignalsofprogress,

5. ScenariosforSustainableLifestyles2050:FromGlobalChampionstoLocalLoops|5
“promisingpractices”ofmoresustainableliving
practices,andtheyformagoodfoundationfor
exploringthefutureofsustainablelifestyles.
SPREADingsustainablelifestylesinthefuturewill
require,ontheonehand,adeeperunderstanding
ofhowtoscaleupcurrentpromisingpractices.
Ontheother,weneedtoknowhowfarthese
practiceswilltakeustowardssustainableliving
forall,andwhatkindsofnewcreativesolutions,
currentlyunknownor“unthinkable”,mightgetus
there.
Ourresearchsuggeststhatinordertomake
progressintheseareas,thatfocusshouldbe
placedonstrategiestoassist,motivateand
inspirebehaviouralchange,aswellastherole
ofinfrastructureandenablingsustainableliving
environments.
Thescenariosforsustainablelifestyles2050
presentfourdifferentprototypesofpossible
futuresocietiesthatallsupportmoresustainable
lifestyles.Ourlifestylescenariosarebasedonthe
foundationsofsustainablesystems,andexplore
differentoptionsinanattempttoacknowledge
thediversityamongEuropeancitizens.
ThecriticalimpactsofcurrentEuropean
lifestylesare:
Foodanddrink,privatetransportandhous-
ingtogetheraccountfor70-80%ofEurope’s
environmentalimpactsstemmingfromfinal
consumption(Tukker,A.,G.Huppes,etal.
(2006)).
Meatanddairyconsumptionaloneaccount
foralmostonequarter(24%)ofallfinalcon-
sumptionimpacts–byfarthelargestshare
inthefoodanddrinksector(Weidemaetal.
2008).
Domesticheating,waterconsumption,appli-
anceandelectronicsuseaccountsfor40%
ofEurope’stotalenergyconsumption(with
heatingaloneaccountingfor67%ofhouse-
holdenergyconsumptionintheEU-27)(EEA
2010).
CarownershipintheEU-27increasedby
morethanonethird(35%)intheperiod
between1990and2007(EEA2010)andEU
driverscurrentlyownonethirdoftheworld’s
750millioncars(IEA2010).
IntheEU-27,approximately60%ofadults
andover20%ofschool-agechildrenare
overweightorobese.Coronaryheartdiseases
(CHD)oftenassociatedwithfattyfoodsand
smoking,remainthesinglemostcommon
causeofdeathintheEU(WHO2011).
Reference:Formoreinformation,pleasereadthefullSPREADSustainableLifestyles2050baselinereport,availabletodownloadfromwww.sustainable-lifestyles.eu.
Consuming Society
LivingMoving

6. 6|SPREADSustainableLifestyles2050
Ourscenariosonsustainablelifestyles
TheSPREADSustainableLifestyles2050pro-
jectusesascenariomethodologytoexplore
thediversewaysforpotentiallifestylepatterns
toevolve,andhowthisevolutioncanovercome
currentharmfulenvironmentalandsociallife-
styleimpacts.Oursustainablelifestylescenarios
arestoriesofpossiblefutureswheresocieties
supportmoresustainablewaysofliving.The
scenariospresentdifferentoptionsforsustaina-
blelivingchoicesthatwillsuitthediverseneeds,
desiresandculturalconsiderationsofcitizens
fromacrossEurope.Thefourscenariospresent
differingpathwaystoreachalternativesocieties
wheresustainablewaysoflivingaresupported.
Scenariosarenotpredictionsorforecastsbut
insteadseektoexplorethemostextremepos-
sibilities,inordertohelpdecision-makersplanfor
thecurrently“unthinkable”.Inordertodevelop
storiesofthefuture,wefirstidentifiedthemost
criticalvariables–thecriticaldriversnecessary
tocreatesustainablelifestyles.Someofthe
elementsofourscenariostoriesmightsound
improbableatfirst.Theaimofourscenariosisto
helpthinktheunthinkableandplanforsustain-
ableoptionsinthefuture.
Thefocusofourscenariosliesprimarilyon
people’slifestyles.Aspeoplelivewithinasoci-
ety,andwithinglobalandlocalsystems,wealso
identifysystemboundariessuchas,geopolitics,
nationalpolitics,ortechnologyrelatedtoeach
futurescenario.Itisclearthatthesefactorshave
immensedirectandindirectinfluenceonlife-
styles.However,heretheyaredealtwithonlyto
theextentthattheydirectlyexplainchangesin
lifestylepatterns.
Wehavechosenaspecificscenariomethodol-
ogytoexploredifferentoptionsfornewEuropean
socialmodelsthatencouragesustainablelife-
stylesin2050.Wefurtheroutlineourmethodol-
ogyhere:
1.Ourscenariosaimtodemonstratehow
varioussituationalandbehaviouralfactors
contributetothedevelopmentofsustainable
lifestyles.Scenariosformapowerfultoolfor
translatinghowmegatrends,suchasclimate
change,rapidtechnologicaladvancements,
andchangingdemographicpatternscould
changeoureverydaylivesandthedecisions
wemakeconcerninghowwelive,moveand
consumeinthefuture.
2.Ourscenariosenableustoanalysethe
potentialofcurrentpromisingsustainableliv-
ingpracticeinrelationtothevariousfactors
Situationalandbehaviouralfactorsinfluencinghumanbehaviour
Source:Defra,SustainableLifestylesFramework,2011.
Influencinghuman
behaviour
Environmental
change
BehaviouralfactorsSituationalfactors
Geography
Culture
Infrastructure
SocialLearning
SocialNetworks
Information
Accessto
Capital
Institutional
Framework
Leadership
Altruism
Awareness
Self-efficacy
Values
Perceptions
Norms
Beliefs
Experience
Attitudes
Habits
Identity
Knowledge

7. ScenariosforSustainableLifestyles2050:FromGlobalChampionstoLocalLoops|7
Thebackcastingmethod
Inordertoestablishfoursustainablelifestylescenarios
forEuropein2050,wehaveusedamethodologycalled
backcasting.Thebackcastingmethodallowsustoad-
dresstheriskthatstartingfromthepresentmayleadto
concentratingonchallengesthatareirrelevantforthe
futureweaimtoachieve.
Backcastinghelpsustosetourcompassestowards
sustainablefuturesbydefiningsustainablelifestyles,
andtheirelements,asfixedvariablegoals.Thisnorma-
tivegoalasastartingpointforthescenarioshelpsus
toseethediscrepanciesbetweencurrentrealitiesand
desirablefutures,butalsohelpsustounderstand,where
disruptivechangesaremostneeded.Backcastingex-
ploresalternativepathwaystosuccessfullyreachingthe
desiredfuturegoals.
Ourpremiseisthattherearefactorsthatsetlimitsto
meaningfulfuturelivingsuchas:
limitedglobalcrudeoilreservesthatforceproduc-
tiontodeclineatsomepoint(peakoil)
alimited“carbonbudget”ofgreenhousegas
concentrationintheatmosphere
Exceedingtheseorotherrelevantlimitswouldcre-
atefeedbackeffectsthatwouldverylikelyreducethe
resourcesandcapabilitiesavailabletopeoplelivingin
thecomingdecades.Hencethescopeofdesirable,but
achievablefutureswouldalsobemorelimitedinthefu-
ture.Togeneratefuturelifestylescenariosthatarerele-
vantandrobust,itisimperativetorecognizetheselimits.
Cylindermodelofconstructingpossiblefuturescenarios
Conemodelofconstructingmeaningfulfuturescenarios
drivingalternativesustainable
futures.Throughscenarios
weaimtoexplorethewaysin
whichpromisingnichestrate-
giesformoresustainableliving
couldgrowintowidespread
practicesthathavethepo-
tentialtodecreasetheoverall
environmentalstressonour
societies.
3.Ourscenariosprovideastart-
ingpointforidentifyingoppor-
tunityspacesforthedevelop-
mentofcreativestrategiesto
notonlymainstreamcurrent
sustainablepractices,butalso
todevelopnewsolutionsfor
moresustainablelivingso-
cieties.Thescenariosoffer
insightsintohowdifferentdriv-
ersofchangeinteract,shape
lifestylesandhelpinidentifying
theroleofvariousgatekeep-
erswhofacilitatethechange
throughscalingupandmulti-
plyingthecurrent,promising
practicesondifferentstagesof
development.
Spaceofopportunities
Usualfutureperspective
Futureperspectivewithsystemboundaries
Spaceofopportunities
2050Now
2050Now
Carbonbudget
Peakoil
Core
vision

8. 8|SPREADSustainableLifestyles2050
Thesustainablelifestyle=8000kgperannum
Inordertocreatescenariosforsustainablelife-
stylesin2050,weneeddefinitionsandcommon
targetstospecifywhatismeantby”sustainable
lifestyles”.IntheSPREADprojectwehavede-
finedthematerialfootprintofasustainablelife-
styleat8000kgperannum(p.a.)foroneperson.
Thisquantifiedtargetformsthefundamental
assumptiononwhicheachofourfourdeveloped
andpreviouslydescribedscenariosisbuilt.Our
scenariosdescribewhat8000kglivingcanlook
likeinfourdiversefuturesocieties.
The8000kgp.a.ofmaterialfootprintperperson
isbasedontheworkofMichaelLettenmeier,
StefanBringezu,FriedrichSchmidt-Bleeketal
fromtheWuppertalInstituteforClimate,Environ-
mentandEnergyonasafeandsustainablelevel
ofnaturalresourceuse.
Thematerialfootprintisatooltomeasureand
manageoroptimizetheresourceconsumptionof
ourlifestyles,includingtheproductsandproduc-
tionprocessesbehindthem(i.e.intheareasof
consuming,moving,housingandhealth).Inthis
context,oursustainablelifestylematerialfootprint
meanstheuseofrenewableandnon-renewable
materialresources(excl.waterandair)plusthe
erosioncausedbyagricultureandforestry.Itcov-
ersthewholelifecyclefromtheextractionofraw
materialstotheprocessingindustry,distribution,
consumption,recycling,anddisposal.
Theideaofthematerialfootprintistoprovide
acomprehensiveandunderstandabletoolto
reducedifferentkindsofpresentandfutureenvi-
ronmentalchallenges(forexampleintheareasof
food,mobility,housingandhealth).
WhenthematerialfootprintofanaverageEu-
ropeanlifestyledropsfrom27000–40000(ap-
proximatecurrentaveragelifestylefootprintper
person)to8000kgperyear,theenvironmental
andresultingsocialimpactsofourlifestyleswill
dropandchangeconsiderably.Thematerial
footprintthusservesasatooltocomprehensively
directlifestylestolevelswithinplanetarybounda-
riesasdescribede.g.byJohanRockströmand
otherscientists(seebelow).Italsoprovidesaway
tomeasureprogressandmilestonesofsuccess
towardsourfuturesustainablelifestylegoals.
Thematerialfootprintof8000kgp.a.consists
ofhouseholdgoods,foodandbeverages,eve-
rydaymobilityandtourism,electricity,heating
andhousing.However,thecompositionofthe
footprintisnotsimilarforeveryone.Theshareof
consumptioninamaterialfootprintof8000kg
p.a.candifferbasedonthevalues,needsand
aspirationsofeachperson’suniquelifestyle.For
example,somepeoplemayaccumulatemoreof
theirfootprintthroughmobilitywhileothersmove
less,butliveinalargerapartment.Noteveryone
needstolivethesameway,but–atleastonaver-
age–everyonemustlivewithinboundariesofour
planetarysysteminordertorealizeoursustain-
ablefuture.

9. ScenariosforSustainableLifestyles2050:FromGlobalChampionstoLocalLoops|9
Earth-systemprocess
Current
value
Boundary
value
Climatechange
Atmosphericcarbondioxide
concentration(ppmbyvolume)
387350
Biodiversityloss
Extinctionrate(numberof
speciespermillionperyear)
>10010
Biochemical
Anthropogenicnitrogen
removedfromtheatmosphere
(millionsoftonnesperyear)
12135
Landuse
Landsurfaceconvertedto
cropland(percent)
11,715
Freshwater
Globalhumanconsumption
ofwater(km3
/yr)
26004000
Ozonelayer
Stratosphericozone
concentration(Dobsonunits)
283276
Reference:RockströmJ.etall.(2011)
Humandevelopment
Current
Value
Goal2050
HumanDevelopedIndex
(measureoflifeexpectancy,
literacy,educationand
standardsofliving)
0,630,77
Yearsofeducationinless
developedcountries
(averageyears)
68
Lifeexpectancy
(globalaverage)
70>75
GINIcoefficient
(Measureoftheinequality:
avalue0expressingtotal
equalityandavalue1
maximalinequality.)
0,70,55
Globalpopulation
(billion)
78,9
Reference:UNDP(2011)
Environmentalandsocial
indicatorsincludedin
the8000kgp.a.lifestyle:
EnvironmentalboundariesSocialboundaries
2.Socialboundaries
Weusepopulationgrowthandhumandevelop-
mentindicesbasedonstatisticsandresearchby
UNDPandUNPopulationDivision.Thesesocial
systemboundaries(thegoalsfor2050)arethe
minimumrequirementsforsociallysustainable
development.Thematerialfootprintboundaryof
8000kgp.a.foroneperson’slifestyleisbasedon
theworldwiderecognitionofthesesocialsystem
boundaries.
1.Environmentalboundaries
Wedrawontheplanetaryboundariesframe-
workdevelopedbyagroupofearthsystemand
environmentalscientistsledbyJohanRockström
fromtheStockholmResilienceCentre.Duetothe
complexityofquantifyingtheseplanetarybound-
aries,weonlyincludedsixoftheoriginalninein
thebackgroundconsiderationsforthescenarios.
Asthequantificationoftheindicatorsusedby
Rockström’sgrouponalifestylelevelwouldhave
beenextremelycomplex,weusedthematerial
footprint(seeabove)asanindicatorforthevari-
ouskindsofenvironmentalimpactscausedby
anykindofmaterialandenergyuse.

10. 10|SPREADSustainableLifestyles2050
Fourscenarios,twocriticaluncertainties
Pandemictechnology
Globallythereareafewdominanttechnologiesforanytaskorhuman
need.Technologiesforbuilding,transportation,energyproduction,
andcommunicationexisteverywhereandlooksimilar.There’sfierce
competitionontheglobalmarketsandcommercialdominanceyields
hugerewards.Technologyin2011couldbecalledpandemic.Every-
one’sonfacebookanddrivesacar(producedbyafewglobalmanu-
facturers)thatrunsonpetrolordieselfuel(globallyexchangedgoods).
Human-centrism
Ahuman-centricsocietypivotsaround
wideningtheuseofhumancapitalinall
itsforms.Bothcivicandpublicuseof
skillsisvalued.Everyonehassomething
valuabletogiveortodo.Society’ssuc-
cessdependsoneveryonecontributing
andoneveryone’sabilitytobegood
citizens,familymembers,neighbours
andprofessionals.Thereissomedivi-
sionoflabour,butself-improvement
throughleisureisalsoverymuchappre-
ciated:e.g.throughfamilytime,active
consumption,civicactivities,handicraft,
arts.Youdowhatyoucan–andwhat
youfeelmotivatedtodo.
Meritocracy
Ameritocraticsocietycirclesaround
professionalskills.Themostcom-
merciallyvaluableprofessionalskills
aretheenginesoftheeconomy.
Membersofthoseprofessionsare
paidaccordingly.Policiesandstruc-
turesarecustomizedtofacilitatethe
workoftheleadingindustriesand
professions.Divisionoflabourisat
itsextreme.Youdoonlywhatyou’re
reallygoodat.
Endemictechnology
Thetools,infrastructures,andsolutionsweusearebornandgrown
locally:technologyemergesoutoflocalconditions,resources,and
peculiarities.Locallivingconditionsruletechnology.Wherethereis
wood,housesarebuiltoftimber–wherethedaysareextremelyhot,
peopleliveintents.Thecorpusofglobalscienceandtechnologyis
wide,yetapplicationsarehighlylocal.Theeconomyisdrivenbyef-
ficiencyandinnovationsgainedthroughthinkingandactinglocally.
Inordertoestablishfourscenariosthatwould
significantlydifferfromeachother,wedefined
attheoutsetfourfuturelandscapesthrough
whichthescenarioswouldbeconstructed.
Thiswasdonebycombiningthetwocriticalvari-
ables,whichwecalluncertainties.Weusethese
uncertaintiestodefinelifestylesandsocieties.
Thetwouncertaintiesandassumptionsabout
themunderliningourworkwerethat:
Technologyiseitherpandemicorendemic.
Society’sgoverningprincipleiseitherhuman-
centricormeritocratic.
Bycombiningthesetwosetsofalternatives,we
reachedourfourpossiblefuturelandscapes.The
followingaredescriptionsofwhatthesefuture
landscapeswouldlooklikeonthesocietallevel.
Thesetwocriticaluncertaintiesdefinedthemain
driversshapingthescenariosandthescenario
process.Atlaterstageoftheworkwedefined
fouradditionaldriversforeachscenario.Withthe
helpofthesedriverswewereabletogivearea-
sonableexplanationonhowsustainablelifestyles
andthesustainablesocietycanbereachedin
eachscenario.

11. ScenariosforSustainableLifestyles2050:FromGlobalChampionstoLocalLoops|11
Singular
SuperChampions
LocalLoops
Governing
theCommons
Empathetic
Communities
Pandemictechnology
Human-centrismMeritocracy
Endemictechnology

12. 12|SPREADSustainableLifestyles2050
Thedevelopmentoffuturescenariosformore
sustainablelifestylesin2050buildsonallprevi-
ousworkintheproject.Theresearchconducted
oncriticallifestyleimpactsaswellasthebarri-
ersanddriversimpedingandencouragingmore
sustainablewaysoflivingprovideasolidbasis
forcreatingpathwaystowardspossiblefutures
wherethesechallengescanbeovercomeand
opportunitiesforimprovedlivingrealised.
Sustainablelifestyle
scenarios2050–the“makingof”
Thecreationofalternativefuturesforsustainable
lifestylestoasfaras2050wascompletedinfive
phases.
1.Definingtheframework(axesofcriticalun-
certainties)forthecreationofthescenario
quadrants:Baselineresearchandfindingsof
theSPREADDelphisurveyofexpertviews.
2.Definingfourscenariolandscapes.
3.Exploringthepathwaystosustainableliving:
BackcastingworkshopinTuusula,Finland.
4.Qualifyingandquantifyingthescenariosand
pathways:Research&2ndDelphisurvey.
5.Finalisingthescenariostoriesandvisualisa-
tions.
Howdidwegethere?
PhaseOne:
Definingthescenarioframework
Thedevelopmentofourscenarioframework
includedtheanalysisoftheproject’sbaselinere-
searchandidentificationofpromisingpracticeon
sustainablelifestyles,aswellasfurtherinputand
analysisfromacrosscuttinggroupofrelevant
stakeholdersandexperts.
InNovember2011,followingthebaselinere-
search,aselectiveDelphiSurveywasconducted
amongstacrosscuttinggroupofrelevantstake-
holdersandexperts.Thesurveyaimedatfinding
afeasibleframeworkforthebackcastingwork-
shop.Thesurveyquestionnairewasformulated
basedonthefindingsoftheSPREADbaseline
report,theSPREADlaunchconferencereport
andpromisingpracticescardsfromtheSPREAD
Visioningworkshop.Around40peopleoutof110
invitedrespondedtothesurvey.
Thesurveyquestionnaireincludedaformulation
ofassumptionsor“arguments”thatparticipants
wereaskedtoevaluate(basedonassumptions
probability,desirabilityandimportance)andcom-
ment(explainingwhatdriverswouldcausean
assumptiontoberealisedorfailtoberealised).
Insteadofaskingforcommentsoncurrenttrends,
therespondentswererequestedtodescribe
thingstheyseeinplacein2050,inaworldwhere
sustainablelifestylesarethenormacrossEurope.
Phasetwo:
Definingfourscenariolandscapes
Basedontheanalysisoftheresearchand
thesurvey,wewereabletodefinetwocritical
variablesoruncertaintiesthatwecombinedto
producefouralternativefuturelandscapes.We
didthisusingtheprinciplesofsystemsthinking,
whichhelpedusmaptherelevantsituationaland
behaviouralfactorsinfluencinghumanbehaviour.
Thetwocriticaluncertaintiesaretechnologyand
asociety’sgoverningprinciple.Wewereableto
dividetechnologyintoeitherpandemicorendem-
ic,andthegoverningprincipleofthesocietyinto
eithermeritocraticorhuman-centred.Bycombin-
ingtheseuncertainties,wecreatedthescenario
quadrants.Thesewereelaboratedintofouralter-
nativefuturelandscapes,whichformedthebasis
forourworkinthebackcastingworkshop.
Phasethree:
Exploringthepathwaystosus-
tainableliving:Backcastingwork-
shopinTuusula,Finland
The”Countingbackwardsworkshop”washeld
onthe24-25thofNovember2011inTuusula,
Finland.There,fouralternativescenariopathways
from2012to2050werecreatedwiththehelpof

13. ScenariosforSustainableLifestyles2050:FromGlobalChampionstoLocalLoops|13
54participantsfrom16countries,representing
stakeholdergroupsfromstart-upbusinessesto
governments,multinationalcompanies,NGOs,
researchers,entrepreneurs,designersand
independentpolicyexperts.Theseparticipants
weredividedintofourgroupsandeachdefined
analternativescenarionarrativeandpathways
tosustainablelifestylesinEuropebetween2012
and2050.
Intheworkshopthebackcastingmethodwas
usedtoexplorethepathwaystomoresustaina-
blelivingandtofurtherdefineeachalternativefu-
turescenario.Startingwiththealternativefuture
landscapescreatedinphasetwo,participants
“countedbackwards”fromthe2050futuresto
today.Eachgroupwaschallengedtoco-create
thepathwaystotheiralternativefuturewhere
sustainable8000kglifestylesaresocietalnorms
–Whatwouldhavetohavehappened2040,2025
and2015inordertoreachdifferent8000kglife-
stylesinthisscenario?Specialfocuswasputon
criticallifestyleimpactissues(e.g.food,mobility,
housingandhealth)aswellasdriversoflifestyle
choices,suchasenablinginfrastructureandbe-
haviorchangestrategiesthatwerehighlightedin
theSPREADbaselineresearch.
Phasefour:
Qualifyingandquantifyingthe
scenariosandpathways:
Research&Delphisurvey
Toqualifythescenariostoriesandpathwaysfor-
mulatedinphasethree,asecondDelphisurvey,
withstakeholdersandexperts,wasconducted.
Theaimofthesecondsurveywastogather
additionalassumptionsandargumentsforeach
scenario.Respondentswereaskedtocomment
fromtheperspectiveofhisorherexpertise.
Surveyresultswerefedintoareviseddraftofthe
scenarios.
Thescenariodraftswerefurthertestedand
quantifiedthroughtheSPREADPeople’sForum,
whichwecall“iFuture”.iFutureenabledusto
explorethescenarioswith“realpeople”from
acrossEurope,withfocusgroupsassembled
infourEuropeancountriesfromJanuary-March
2012(Finland,Germany,HungaryandSpain).In
theiFutureworkshopstheSPREADprojectwas
abletoconnectthescenariostoriestopeo-
ples’realassumptions,aspirationsandideas
about“thegoodlife”andtheirownsustainable
lifestyles,wherethesizeofindividualmaterial
footprintsdonotexceed8000kgp.a.
Phasefive:
Finalisingthescenariostories
andvisualisations
Inthefinalphase,thescenarioswereadvanced
tofinalstoriesandvisualisationstoshowwhat
sustainablelifestylesin2050couldlooklikewere
created.Atthisstage,thescenarioswerefurther
elaboratedontomakethedifferencesineach
alternativefuturesocietyexplicitwiththeidentifi-
cationoffourdriversofchangeforeachscenario.
Furtherfocuswasputondefiningwhatlifeislike
fordifferentpeopleineachscenarioandhow
environmentalandsocialchangeshaveimpacted
theirlives,orbecomecatalystsforbehaviour
change.

14. 14|SPREADSustainableLifestyles2050
Fourscenariosto
sustainablelifestyles
2012–2050

15. ScenariosforSustainableLifestyles2050:FromGlobalChampionstoLocalLoops|15
SingularSuperChampions

16. 16|SPREADSustainableLifestyles2050
SingularSuper
Champions
AnageingEuropereceivesatransformativeand
rejuvenatingspark,inordertosurviveasChina
beganitsstridestowardsgainingtotalglobal
dominanceincleantechmarketsatthestartof
the2010decade.Atalmostthelastmoment,in
2015,theEUwageredallofitspoliticalpower
andpublicresourcestoforcecompaniesand
consumersintotheeraofanewindustrialrevo-
lution.Developingnewmaterialsandbringing
aboutarevolutioninproductiontechnologies
comesaboutthroughincentivesandpolitical
measures.Europeannationsagreetoremoveall
subsidiesfromindustriesoperatingwithinef-
ficientlegacytechnologiesintheenergyand
resourceintensivefields.Allavailablebudgetin
thememberstatesisinvestedinmassiveR&D
centres,demonstrationprojectsandespeciallyin
education.
Thiswasnotapain-freeroadtosuccess.Revo-
lutionisingtechnologicallyandecologicallyout-
datedproductionprocesses,aswellas,cutting
subsidiesfromfuelandmanyothercommodities
meansthatmanypeoplelosttheirjobs.Alltrans-
portation,andespeciallysinglecarusebecame
muchmoreexpensiveandallassociatedhous-
ingcostsrose.Thebigreformdidn’ttreatevery
citizenorregionequally.Thiscreatedturmoilin
decliningregionsinthe2020’sbut,themasses
wereforcedtoadapt.Simultaneousreformsin
welfareprovisionsduetobudgetcutsdrovemany
Europeanstomigrateandsearchforincomeop-
portunitiesfromthrivingmetropolitanregionsthus
speedinguptheconcentrationofthepopulation
andsourcesofwealth.
Biginvestmentspaidoff:Scientificbreakthroughs
inmaterialtechnologymadetheup-cyclingof
rawmaterialsprofitable.Firmsinthecradleto
cradlebusinessstartedtomakesolidprofitsin
thelatterhalfof2020’s.Accesstotheconsump-
tioncycleandwhatwaspreviouslycalledwaste
becamethekeydeterminantofsuccesstothe
largemultinationalfirms.Newserviceanddis-
tributionmodelswerecreated.Theyputnew
emphasisonbuildinglastingrelationshipswith
customers.Thiswastheonlywaytomakethe
valuableresourcesstoredinmaterialproducts
returntoproduction.Consumersexperiencedthis
throughservicesthatequippedthemconstantly
withup-to-datemodelsofthegoodstheyhave
onceboughtaccessto.Forsome,thesetechno-
logicallydrivenlifestylegoodscompensatedand
replacedtheirpastneedsforspacioussingle-
familyhousesandmodestlypricedcars.
SingularSuperChampionsisasocietyinwhich
success,bothforindividualsandsocietiesalike,
isgainedthroughpersistentfaithineducation
andenterprise.Injobmarketsexpertiseiseve-
rythingbecausetechnologydevelopsfastand
theonlysourceofsuccessintheeraofresource
scarcityisexpertknowledge.
Everyonehasaccesstobasiceducation,learn-
ingandknowledge.Butbeyondthatthereisa
moralobligationforcontinuousdevelopmentof
personalandprofessionalskillsthatdrivesus-
tainablesocieties.Leisuretimeisthereforequite
differentfromleisuretimein2012.Itisspenton
learningandeducationthatisself-centredyet
AlternativeSustainableSociety1:
Supporting8000kgSustainable
Lifestyles
InthescenarioSingularSuperChampionsEu-
ropehasmadetheleaptoanewtypeofsus-
tainable,competitiveandequitableeconomy:
aresultofnumeroustreaties,declarationsand
officialgoalsstartingfrom2035.Theleapis
achievedwiththedeploymentofmarketinstru-
mentsthatalsoradicallyreformmanycondi-
tionsthathaveshapedEuropeanlifestylesover
thepastdecades.Cleantechandupcycling
businessesflourishassustainabilityhasbecome
thebusinessopportunityofthecentury.Europe
ofSingularSuperChampionsisasocietythat
celebratesanethosoflearning,achievingand
self-mastery.
Singular
SuperChampions
LocalLoops
Governing
theCommons
Empathetic
Communities
Pandemictechnology
Human-centrism
Meritocracy
Endemictechnology

17. ScenariosforSustainableLifestyles2050:FromGlobalChampionstoLocalLoops|17
Whatchangesbetween2012and2050?
EducationEmbeddedintoeverydaylifeandpractices,lifelong
insteadofshortcyclesinthebeginningoflife.
Individualizedandcommoditisized.Basisofwelfare
provision.
WorkHumanresourceshighlightwork.Talentisconcen-
tratedinglobalorganizations.Entrepreneurvs.super
talentedmultinationalsclass.
City10-15highlyurbanizedmetropolisesinEurope.
Extremelydense.Lotsofnewinfrastructure.New
specialisedareasofexcellence.
HealthPreventativepublichealthcare.Rationaldiets.Self-
diagnosis.
LivingLocationcompensatessizeoftheflat.Newmaterials
anddesign.Pricedrivesdensity.
FoodPriceandhealthefficientdiet.Largescaleorganic
production.
MobilityNewrailsystemswithinandbetweenmetropolises.
Personalizedrapidtransportsystems.Smartmobility
solutions.Highprices.
ConsumingMeaningsandsymbolsgetconsumedmorethan
products.Educationandself-projectedme.Price
mechanism.
EconomyLargemultinationalfirms.Efficiency.Competition.
Eco-industrialrevolution.Standardizedtransparent
data
Senseof
security
Fromtechnologicalprogress.Transparency.Surveil-
lance.Individualchoices.Thoughtleaders.
Leasure
time
Investinginowneducationandtraining.
pragmatic.Themostaffluentpeople,TheSingu-
larSuperChampions,havetranscendedmaterial
consumption.Insteadofconsuming,theymake
investmentsinthemselvesthroughstudyingnew
skills,bothtoimproveprofessionallyandtobe-
comechampionsoftheirindividuallifestyle.
Howaresustainable
lifestylesachieved?
Theroadtowardssustainabilitystartedwithpeo-
plehavingtopaymoreforthenecessitiesand
luxuriesthatarelessexpensivein2012.
Duetoextremeurbanisation,peopleliveineven
moredensecitiesthantheydidinthe2010’s.As
theimportanceofcitiesandtheircentresriseat
thesametime,themosttalentedpeopleaspireto
beinthedowntownareasofprogressintheme-
tropolis.Thisraisesthepricesofapartmentsand
locationstartstocompensateforspace–which
leadstomoresustainablehousingalternativesfor
themainstream.
Withregardstomobility,risingresourceprices
startedtoinfluencepeople’sbehaviourevenmore
directly.Asthepriceofgashitnewpeaks,someof
thepooresthouseholdsendedupsacrificingsig-
nificantamountsoftheirincomefortheirpersonal
mobility.Thisdroveurbanisation,whichagain
ledtopeopleneedingtousetheirresourcesfor
mobilityless.Onlythemostwealthypeoplehad
thepossibilitytotravelexceedinglyasairtravel
wasoutofreachformany.Mobilityingeneralhas
decreaseddramaticallyovertheyears.Thepainful
measuresprovidedacatalystforrapidchange.
Sustainabilityhasbecomethebusinessopportu-
nityofthecentury.Itbreathesnewlifeintoentre-
preneurship,newbusinessmodels,andpeople
experimentwithvariousaspectsofsustainable
livingathomewhichsavesmoneyintheshort
termandprovesresilientinthelongterm.
Aspeoplestartedtogetaccesstodetailed
dataontheirownbehaviourthroughtheirsmart
phonesinrealtime,andscienceprovidesin-
creasingamountsofinformationregarding
healthyandsustainablealternatives,people
startedrationalizingtheirdiets.Insteadoftaste,
nutritionbecamethekeydriverofday-to-day
foodchoices.
Inadditiontopricedriverschangingtheways
peoplebehave,technologicalinnovationhas
providedmanysustainablechoicesandalterna-
tivesnotavailablein2012.Newmaterialsmade
itpossibletobuildhousesthatareextremely
energyefficient.Breakthroughsintechnology
enableretrofittingandnewconstructionasvi-
ablewaystoprovidesustainablelivingpossibili-
ties.Thepost-oilera,inturn,changedcarsinto
mobilesolutionsforelectricity.Locallyproduced
renewableenergyisstoredinidlecarbatteries
whencarsareparkedInasocietyofSingular
SuperChampionssustainabilityisaccomplished
throughchangesinbehaviourpatternsandcon-
sumptionpracticesandconsumerchoicesalong
withtechnologicalinnovations.
SingularSuperChampionsscenario
narrative–howdiditallhappen?
»TheEuropeanGreenNewDeal
»Transparencygetsthepricesright
»Theupcyclingeconomy
»Learning,notearning
Thesedriversaredepictedaseventsonthetimeline.
Whatislifelikein
SingularSuperChampions

18. 18|SPREADSustainableLifestyles2050
TheEuropeanGreenNewDeal
Transparencygetsthepricesright
Theupcyclingeconomy
Learning,notearning
2015:EUprimeministersconcludethatreformsofunprecedented
scopeneedtobeimplementedinallEUcountriestopreventthem
fromfallingintoapermanentstateofzerogrowth.Evidence-based
policy-makinggainsprominenceandbringspoliticsandresearch
closertogether.
2015:InChina,there’sanoutbreakof
problemsrelatedtoclimatechange.
Naturalcatastrophes,includingdrought,
eliminateagrowingshareofcrops,caus-
ingfoodpricestorisedramatically.
2015:Thebeginningofthefinancialyear
startedwitharemarkableboominrenewa-
blesinemergingmarkets.Thevitalityof
renewablescomeslargelyfromavibrant
privatesector.
2019:Afraidofcitizensgrowingrestless,leaders
oftheCommunistpartyinChinaannounceanew
five-yearplanwhichisaboutinvestingagreat
shareofChina’smassivedollarreservesinthe
clean-techsector,intowhichithasalreadypoured
aconsiderableamountofmoneyoverthepast10
years.
2020:Thereispressuretorevolu-
tionisetechnologicallyandecologi-
callyoutdatedproductionprocesse
andeliminateexpensiveandharmf
incentives.Economicsubsidies(e.g
fuel)willbecutandecologicalcost
willbeinternalizedinprices.
“Educationis
everywhereindaily
life.Kidscanlog
intoanyobject
andaccessthe
so-called‘situated
educationpro-
grammes’and
learnflexiblyall
throughtheday.”
“Wouldyouliketolearn
somethingnew”asksthe
newcomputerprogram
Ijustbought.Allaround
Europewelearnthesame
thingsfromstate-of-the-artsoftware.
2016:InDenmarkandNorwaycom-
prehensiveeducationalreformsaimat
improvinglearningcapacitythrough
movingprimaryeducationpartlyout-
sidetheclassroom.
Meandmywifearehappy
thatour5-year-olddaugh-
tergotacceptedintoa
specialistmathsschool
fortheverytalented.This
meanstalenthunterswill
noticeherinnotime.
2015
Ijustboughtanappthat
allowsmetotrackmy
consumption.Mypersonal
purchasehistoryismyown
propertynow!
2018:Peopleallaround
Europeinvestinlarge
firmsthatcompeteover
hegemonyinsustainable
technologies.
2018:Acoalitionofthe5000
biggestenterprisesbasedin
theEUlaunchesaninitiativeto
awardjointdegrees.Leadership
andcompetitivenessarenur-
turedthroughinternationalex-
amsandotherlearningevents
includinge.g.competitions,
whichareseenasthebestway
toprovidestudentswiththe
skillstheyneed.
Schoolprogramsintegrating
indailyactivities
Diffusedlearningembedded
ineverydayproducts
It’ssocoolthatthelunch
cafeatourworkserves
foodforhealthyandcost-
efficientdiets.It’sthehot-
testfoodtrendaroundand
nowIdon’thavetovisit
thecoolestareasintown
toenjoyit.It’righthere,
whereIwork!

19. ScenariosforSustainableLifestyles2050:FromGlobalChampionstoLocalLoops|19
2021:Newcompetitivenessmechanismsareintroducedinthe
Eurozone.GovernmentssupportR&Dactivitiestoexploreeco-
logicalproductionmethods.
2022:Desertecattractssolarcompaniesalloverthe
worldtoconquerspotsintheSahara.Oneofthelargest
firmsinthesectorannouncesthattheywillstartproviding
transparentinformationontheproductioncycle,energy
andnaturalresourceconsumptiononalltheirproducts.
2024:Planstoshifttheemphasisofwelfareprogrammes
graduallytowardssupportingyoungpeopleandeducation
passesatanEUsummit.Onthebasisofgoodexamplesfrom
Denmark,itisalsoagreedthatbasiceducationshouldbe
reformedtoincludemoretrainingonskillsforlife,e.g.adopt-
inghealthylifestyles.
2022:ThemajorityofEUmemberstates
introducenewcross-cuttingroadpricingfor
allroadsduetotheneedtocompensatefor
lossesinfueltaxrevenuesthatareattrib-
utedtoincreasedvehicleenergyefficiency
andashifttoelectriccars.Asaresult,
peoplestarttoprefershortcommuting
distances,service-richneighborhoodsand
goodlocationoverlargelivingspace.
2024:Possessinghalfofworld’sphospho-
rusreserves,Moroccostartstoregulate
salesofthis“newgold”.Thisinturnleads
tounforeseenhikeinfertilizerprices.
Decreaseduseeventuallystartstoaffect
annualcropyields.
2025:Thebiggestcompaniesinfood,construc-
tion,ICT,manufacturingandcarindustriesagree
ontransparencystandardsondataconcerning
theenergyandnaturalresourceconsumptionof
theirproductionprocesses.TheEUcountries,
ChinaandUSAsoonadoptthesestandardsas
basisforlegislation,whichmeansthatpractically
allproductionandserviceshavetomeetsimilar
transparencystandards.
“Formeronlinegameslike
BiodivBattleorSimSust
turnedouttobepopular
sustainabilitygamesthat
spreadeco-consciousness
betterthananycampaign
everdid.”
Throughtransparentin-
formationandincreased
education,I’mveryknowl-
edgeableaboutwhatis
healthytoeat,howmuch
exerciseisneededandwhat
arethesymptomsofdifferent
diseases.Healthcareismore
preventative.
Someofmyemploy-
eeshavetospend
40%ontravelaslong
distancecommut-
ingandrisinggaspriceshave
reallyhittheirbudgets.Most
ofthemhavealreadymadethe
movetopublictransportand
manyareconsider-
ingmovingcloser
toouroffice.
2020:Peoplecelebratethe
launchofthehigh-speedrail
networkthathasbeenexpanded
tocoverallroutesbetweenEu-
rope’smajorcities.Thesetrains
starttopushairlinecompanies
outofthemarket.
20202025
MycousinMichaelbought
afarmlastweek.The
globalriseoffoodpricesis
turningpeopleto-
wardsagricultural
careers.
Educativesimula-
tiongames
Assistedfamily
learningprocesses
Banksstarttoprovidenewenergysolu-
tionsforpeopletofinancetheenergy
retrofittingoftheirhouse.
2023:Globaldigitalintegrationbringsproductcyclesandsystemscloser
together,enablingnewinnovationstobeintroducedeasilyacrosstheglobe.
Thisappliestohouseholds,too,asspecifictechnologicalmonitoringpro-
grammessupportindividualsinreducingfoodwastetopracticallyzero.

20. 20|SPREADSustainableLifestyles2050
TheEuropeanGreenNewDeal
Transparencygetsthepricesright
Theupcyclingeconomy
Learning,
notearning
2028:Withthehelpoftransparentproduct
datapeoplelearntounderstandhowindi-
vidualconsumerchoicesinfood,housing,
mobilitybuildtheiroveralllifestyle.
2025:Thankstomajorleapsintechnology,thefirst
cost-effectivelarge-scaleupcyclingprocessesare
launchedintheEuropeanmarkets.Newenterprises
starttodeveloparoundtheprovisionanddistribution
ofresources.Theyleaseproductsinordertomake
surethattheyretainownershipofresourcesusedin
production.Cradle-to-cradleisthefastestgrowing
businessandareaofresearch.
“…Wehave
carefullypre-
paredasus-
tainabletripto
China.Weare
goingbyboat
andarestart-
ingtolearn
thelanguage
sothatwecan
communicate
withthepeo-
plewhowill
hostusthere.”
2028:China,USAandtheEUmakemassiveinvestments
inclean-techthattogetherwithdrasticpricehikesin
scarcenaturalresourcesbringthepricesofecologically
sustainablegoodsbelowthepricesoftheirunsustain-
able,resource-intensiverivalsacrossallsectors.These
threeglobalpowersdrivesustainableindustry.
OneofthesuburbsinBilbao
wasrebuiltwiththenew-
eststate-of-the-artenergy
efficientmaterials.Afriend
ofminejustmovedthere.
Itisattractingpeoplewho
previouslycouldnothave
imaginedlivinginsucha
location.
20252030
Ieatonlyfoodthat’shyper-
efficientintermsofnutrition
levels.Cabbages,
lentilsandberriesarekey
elementsinmydiet.Itjust
makessense!
2026:Flyingchangesdramaticallyasthemajor
airlinesagreeonminimumserviceefficiency
standards.Planescannowonlyflywithover
90%passengercapacity;otherwisetheymust
re-scheduleorpostponetake-off–unless
someoneiswillingtopayfull-priceforthe
vacantseats.
WhenIflewtoBerlinlast
month,Ihadtowait11
hoursuntiltheflightwas
fullyoccupied.Regardless,
itcostmeamonths’ssal-
ary,asaviationtaxationis
steeperthanever.
Slowtourismactivities
Vacationsarelongerbut
lessfrequent
2025:Anewsmartgridsolutionisan-
nouncedthatconnectstheUK,Germany
andFrance’senergyconsumption.The
amountofenergyusedinhouseholds
dropssignificantly.
2030:Mostofthemajoreconomicpapersacknowledgethat
cradle-to-cradleisthemostefficientproductionmethodre-
gardlessofproductionsectorormaterialsrequired.Itquickly
reachesallpartsofproductionsystems.Asasignificant
proportionofusableresourcesisownedbyusers,theyalso
becomepartofthesenetworks.
2030:Thankstoinformaticsapps,
educationalsoftwareandonline
learningnetworks,peopleare
empoweredtomakeexcellentra-
tionalchoicesandtheirdesirefor
materialgoodsdeclines.material
goodsdecline.

21. ScenariosforSustainableLifestyles2050:FromGlobalChampionstoLocalLoops|21
“Iamsurethatfrom
clothingcaretofood
preparationeverything
isdoneinourfamilyin
themostsustainable
way.Ourhomeusesits
sensorstocontroleve-
rythingsoitisenergy
efficient.”
Intelligentandsmartpackagingof
foodfortransparency,awarenessand
lesswaste.
Welivedinthe
suburbswhenI
wasachildand
droveeverywhere.
Ican’timagine
livingsofaraway
andhavingso
muchspaceat
homenow.My
parentssoldtheir
housesevenyears
agoandnowlive
twoblocksfrom
usinaniceone
livingroomapart-
ment.
There’sadentalclub
forthosewhowant
tolearnandtake
careoftheirteethInmy
apartmentbuilding.
Igothereeverymonth
tolearnself-dentistry.
Anewwaste
mineopened
nearby.They
collectwaste
fromoldlandfills
andprovidejob
opportunities
forthelocals.
2034:Austrianchildrenwiththemostpotential
tobecomemembersofthefuturechampions
areidentifiedatanearlyageandhand-picked
forfuturetraining,i.e.theirskillsareimproved
inlearningstudiosandtopschools.
2035
2037:There’sare-allocationofnon-productive
leisuretimeintoanopportunitytolearn,includ-
ingsubconsciouslearning(e.g.computer
gamesthatarelinkedwiththecityenviron-
ment).Schoolsthathoneskillsareestablished,
nourishingandnurturingindividualskills.
I’msoproudofmydaughter.She’s
socuriousaboutherenvironment
andenjoysthepossibilitiesofthe
embeddededucationeverywhere.
Tobehonest,Ienjoyitpersonallyas
well.Ilearnnewthingseveryday!
Controlboardfor
householdservices
Greendiet
deliveryservices
2035:NewconcentrationsofR&Dand
productionclustersbasedaroundlarge
firms,andcloselylinkedtooneanother,
emergearoundEurope.Oneofthebest
examplesofthesenewclustersislocated
inPortugal.

22. 22|SPREADSustainableLifestyles2050
TheEuropeanGreenNewDeal
Transparencygetsthepricesright
Theupcyclingeconomy
Learning,notearning
TheNo-WasteWorld
Cupcontesthas
beenoneofthemost
popularleisure
timeactivi-
tiesinrecent
years.
2043:Ahandfuloflargefirms
dominatecradle-to-cradlebusi-
ness.Thesesuper-firmsdrive
sustainabledevelopment.
2039:Productionbusinessesarecompetingoverrights
toexploitwasteconcentrations,e.g.thatofthePacific
Ocean.Largeproductionentitiesenjoyeconomiesof
scaleandpossessresourcesextensiveenoughtolead
largewasteminingprocesses.
2042:AccordingtotheEuroFactsSurvey,time
spentdoingphysicalexerciseamongyoung
peopleandyoungadultsissoaring.Thanksto
educationreformanditsnewfocusonhealth
promotion,thereareveryfewyoungpeople
smokingandoverall,thehealthdifferencesbe-
tweendifferentsocialgroupshavediminished.
2040
2040:Duetoashiftintaxregula-
tion,informationtransparency
andpublicpressure,mostofthe
businesseshaveturnedintosocial
enterprises,whicharebeneficialto
theenvironmentandsociety.
“Myaluminiumusage
istaxed!”criesouta
womaninDenmarkas
thecountryprepares
fortaxationbased
onnaturalresource
usage.Agroupof
peoplegetsmargin-
alisedfromsocietyas
theyfailtoadaptto
changingconsump-
tionpatterns.
Iwanttospendmy
leisuretimedoing
somethingproductive.
Igotoschools
foreveryonetohone
myskills.
Copenhagen–Barcelona,4,5
hours!readsanadvertise-
mentforhigh-speedtrainline
thatjustopenedinMay.
2039:AllaroundEurope,technologicalbreakthroughsallow
informationtocirculatewithoutbarriers.Thedevelopment
ofstocksofnaturalresourcescanbetrackedinrealtime
byeveryone.Resourcepricesincreasehandinhandwith
decreasingstocks,furtherencouragingthesmartuseof
resources.Thankstothetransparentinformation,speculation
onnaturalresourcesinthefinancesectordecreases.
ID-DNACardspersonalisemedicinefor
individuals.Everybodyhasacardthat
containstheirgeneticmap,biological
data,aswellasinformationabouttheir
dietandhabits,inordertoprovideall
informationnecessaryfordoctorsand
othercaregiverstoprovidepersonalised
healingsolutions.
Personalrapidtransit
railshaverevolution-
isedthewaywetravel
hereinUlm.Thereis
atwominutewalkto
thestopwherethe
pre-routedcartawaitsme.Ican
reachtherailwaystationinsix
minutes.Wejustgotridofthe
familycarandourlivesarenow
mucheasier.
Personalwateraccounts
makesurethatthewaterI
useforshoweringalways
staysataround38degrees.

23. ScenariosforSustainableLifestyles2050:FromGlobalChampionstoLocalLoops|23
2050:Over2/3ofthepopulationinEuropean
countriesspendatleast10hoursaweekof
theirfreetimeinlearninginstitutionsinorder
tonetworkwiththeirfield’ssustainabilityelite.
2049:Aglobalresearchandknowledgebank
createsstandardsforallnationalandlocal
levelpoliticaldecision-making.Itguaranteesa
scientificbasisforallgovernmentaction,and
canbeusedtovetoanydecisionthatiseco-
nomically,ecologicallyorsociallyirresponsible.
2047:Accesstowastebecomesoneofthekeydeter-
minantsofsuccessforcompanies.Themostvaluable
resourcesextractedfromwaste,e.g.rareearthmetals,are
amongtheitemsthatcirculateglobally.
20452050
“…Inordertoliveecologically
andeconomically,Ihavecho-
senthe‘energybudgetcard’of
masterShashangShrinivadu.
Iwillfollowhistrainingso
thatmyecologicalfootprintbe-
comesaslightashis,andIwill
savemoneywhiledoingso.”
Myhometownisrathersegregatednowa-
daysasSuperChampiongroupsformtheir
ownsuburbs.Theydon’thavemoremate-
rialwealththanothersasthey’remore
awareofsustainability.Instead,theyhave
morepoliticalandeconomicpowerand
bettereducation.
Globalenergy
consumptiontarget
fixedbyuser
Ireturnedmyold
shoestotheshoe
storeandgotmystore
creditreturnedbydo-
ingso.Icannowget
brandnewshoesand
Iknowthatit’sgreat
fortheenvironmentas
well!

24. Mobility(dailyandtourism)
11000kg
Housing:building
2400kg
Product
consumption
2600kg
Leisuretime
1500kg
Food
7300kg
Housing:
electricity
3300kg
Others
900kg
24|SPREADSustainableLifestyles2050
Gatekeepersforlifestylechanges
Manufacturingand
retailcompanies
…providetransparentlifecycle
dataontheirproducts.
Newdigitalservice
providers
…helpconsumerstotranslate
openlifecycleandfootprintdata
intosmartconsumerchoices.
SuperChampion
leadusergroup
…changethestatussystem
behindconsumercultureand
spreadbestpracticeson
sustainablelifestyles.
Urbanplanners
…createurbanenviron-
mentsthatattractpeople
andenabledense,sus-
tainableliving.
Dietaryexperts
…providedetailedinforma-
tiononnutrition,resource
andcost-effectivediets.
Six-packofmostinfluentiallifestyletriggers
1.Transparentproductdataallowspeopletounderstandtheenvironmentalcostoftheirpersonal
consumerchoicesandtheiroveralllifestyle.Comparingthesustainabilityofchoicesoffood,hous-
ing,mobilityandconsumergoodsin2050isaseasyascomparingpriceswasin2012.
2.Roadpricingandtheoverallriseoftransportationcostschangehousingpreferences.People
prefershortcommutingdistances,well-servicedneighbourhoodsandabetteraccesstospacious-
ness.
3.Improveddesignofpublicspacesandflatsdrawspeopletodenselypopulatedareas.Inallcoun-
tries,areasaroundcitycentresturnintothemostdesirableplacestolive.Peoplearewillingto
tradeoffaspaciousdwellingforthestatusandcomfortprovidedbyaflatinacentrallocation.
4.Newdietaryalternativesemergefromacombinationofrisingfoodpricesandincreasedhealth
consciousness.Media,primaryeducationandcateringcompanieshelpenvironmentallyrational
dietsbecomeamainstreamlifestyleoption.
5.Appsforpersonalinformatics,educationalsoftware,onlinelearningnetworksandadiversified
educationalservicessectorbecomeattractiveandinfluencepeople’sspending.Asaresult,there
islessdesireformaterialgoods,asmorepeoplehaveexcellentskillsinmakingrationalchoices.
6.Newupcyclingapproachestoconsumergoodshavechangedproductlifecycles.Allmaterial
goodsaresoldwithanadditionaldepositontheirmaterialresources,whichencouragespeopleto
returnusedmaterialstotheretailer.
TheaveragematerialfootprintofaEuropeanin
2050intheSingularSuperChampionsscenario
(8000kgperpersoninayear)comparedtothe
averagematerialfootprintin2007(29000kg).
Mobility
(dailyandtourism)
2800kg
Food
2500kg
Housing:
building
1300kg
Others
300kg
Housing:
electricity
300kg
Product
consumption
500kg
Leisure
time
300kg

25. ScenariosforSustainableLifestyles2050:FromGlobalChampionstoLocalLoops|25
Criticalchallengesandsolutionsin
thescenarioSingularSuperChampions
Q1.Howtodoawaywithunsustainablestatussymbols?
1.Apricemechanismincludesandquantifieseverything:resourceuse,
pollution,health,biodiversity,etc.Itisatopmotivatorofbehaviourand
influenceslifestyles.
2.Low-cost,low-impactoptionsintermsofbothenvironmentandhealth
havebecomethesocialnorminfoodandleisureactivities.Healthymo-
bilitypatternsareamajorpartofdailyexercise.Improvedinfrastructure,
goodavailabilityandcompetitivepriceshavemadeiteasyforpeopleto
choosehealthyoptions.
Q2.Howtomanageincreasedurbanconcentrationwhile
decreasingresourceuse?
1.EU-widepolicyincentivesandrisingenergypriceshavemadezeroen-
ergybuildingthenorm.Peoplearepersuadedtoretrofittheirhomeswith
taxincentivesandproliferationofDo-it-Yourselfretrofitkits.
2.Buildingsandinfrastructurewhicharenotusedanymore(duetoin-
creasedenergyandmobilitycosts)areupcycledintonew,highlyefficient
anddenseurbancentres.Peoplearethereforeincentivisedtorecycle
allthematerialfromstructurestheydeconstructwhilerefurbishingtheir
homes.
3.Progressivepropertytaxesandsubsidiesforconstructionofsmallflats
provideincentivesforpeopletoreducetheirdomesticspace.Thisleads
toincreasedleisureactivityoutsidethehome.
4.Theshiftininnovationandurbaninfrastructurepolicyfromcartrafficto
smartmobilityincludingPRTsystems.Thesenewmobilityoptionsare
byfarthemostconvenientonesindenseurbanareaswithhighlifestyle
status.
5.Pricesreducebothlong-andshort-distancetravelling.
Q3.Howtomanagetheconsumptionofresourcesinterms
ofpowerproductionandICTproduction?
1.Duetoadoptionoftaxincentives,alltheappliancesandconstruction
materialproductsavailableinthemarketsarehighlyenergyandresource
efficient.Asaresult,peoplehaveincreasedtheenergyandresourceef-
ficiencyoftheirhomes,applicationsandmobilitypatterns.
2.Highlyresource-efficientwindandsolarpowerproductiondominatesen-
ergyproductionastheoldenergymodeshavedisappearedduetoheavy
taxationandphasingoutofsubsidies.
3.Innovationpolicyacceleratestheuseofabundantinsteadofscarce
materialsforICTincombinationwithsophisticatedrecycling.Pricing
motivatespeopletoadoptnewinnovativesolutions.
4.ExtremelyefficientICTsolutions(sensors,centralizedcomputing,cloud
farms)haveenabledpeopletorealisepersonaloptimisation.Optimisation
ofconsumptionlevelsisalsoasourceofsocialandprofessionalreward.
Governing
theCommons

26. 26|SPREADSustainableLifestyles2050
Governing
theCommons
Youcanmanufactureproductsbasedonyour
veryowndesignatthenearestcornershop!The
riseof3Dprintersmadeitpossibleforthefirst
timeforpeopletocontroltheirownproduction
andconsumption.In2015,3Dtechnologywas
seenassomethingofaniche,butfromtheearly
2030sithasalteredlifestyles,andmanybusi-
nessespermanently.Thedriversofmasscon-
sumptioninthelatterhalfofthe20thcenturyare
replacedbyacultureof“self-creation”assisted
by3Dprintersandothersimilartools.Itoffers
endlesspossibilitiestomouldandre-createone’s
identity.Peoplegrowmoreawareofwhatistheir
own,eitherpurchasingcarefullyselecteditems
theylikeorconstantlymoldingthesamematerial
intonewversionsofgoods.Newformsofdo-
it-yourselfmanufacturingwouldnotbepossible
withouttherichpresenceofthedigitalspace.
Theentirebuiltenvironmentcanbeseenthrough
twoseparatelayers,adigitalandanactual,
physicalone.Billionsofmicrochipsembeddedin
machines,wallsandpavementbringanewtype
ofdatatousersandcreatenewopportunitiesto
livesmart,sustainablelifestylesthroughpowerful
feedbackmechanisms.Socialnetworkscontinue
togainpowerandverysoontraditionalinstitu-
tionsthatareoutsideofmeaningfulnetworks
nearlyvanishfromsightformanypeople.
IntheworldofGoverningtheCommons,people
havefoundnewrelationshipswiththeirpeers
bothinvirtualandmaterialreality.Thisoffers
immenseopportunitiesfordifferenttypesof
meaningfulinteraction,botheconomicandnon-
economicalike.Peoplestarttolookformore
AlternativeSustainable
Society2:Supporting8000kg
SustainableLifestyles
GoverningtheCommonsisascenariomostly
indigitalrealitythathelpspeopletobreakfree
frommanyculturalconstraintsand,eventually,
toreachsustainability.Ubiquitouscomputing
enablesthesmartuseofresourcesand,atthe
sametime,redirectspeople’sbehaviourand
focusofattentionfrommaterialconsumption
andtheirphysicalsurroundingstointeractionin
thedigitalrealm.Peopleabandonmanyinstitu-
tionsofthe20thcentury,liberatethemselvesin
ordertoleadmoremeaningfullivesandengage
innewformsofcollaboration.
meaninginjobsandlifeingeneral.Learningnew
skillsiseasywithalloftheinformation,digitally
assistedtrainingtoolsandpeersupport.This
givesrisetoanewkindofentrepreneurshipin
whichthenextgenerationstartstoredefinetheir
expertiseandsourceofmotivation.
Multi-professionalself-employmenthasreplaced
asteadyincomeandemploymentinacompany
orpublicinstitution:Thepeer-to-peer(P2P)ser-
viceeconomyhasreplacedbigcorporationsand
theirofferings.Newmodelsofworkandwelfare
havebeenformed.
Oncepeoplestartedseeingthecollectivepoten-
tialofthenewcombinationofhighlyskilledself-
starterswithdigitalcommunication,newpolitical
movementsstartedtogainpower.Networksof
peoplewithenthusiasmtowardsasharedissue
gatheredtheirskillsandresourcesanddirected
theireffortstoexperimentingwithnewsolutions,
insteadofjustcampaigningforchangethrough
politicalstructures.
Experimentingwiththehelpofthousandsof
volunteersturnedouttohavepersuasivepower
inthefieldofpolitics.Therefore,”interestnet-
works”,combiningpolicywithdoingthingsgrad-
ually,replacedtraditionalpartiesaspowerhouses
ofrepresentativedemocracy.Asaresultofthis
newcollaborationandtools,manypartsofthe
politicalagendaaretotallyreformedandpolitical
participationisbroughtbackintopeoples’daily
lives.Thistypeof”wikidemocracy”hasrevived
trustinpoliticsanditscapabilityofchanging
societytowardspositivesocialchange.
Singular
SuperChampions
LocalLoops
Governing
theCommons
Empathetic
Communities
Pandemictechnology
Endemictechnology
Human-centrism
Meritocracy

27. ScenariosforSustainableLifestyles2050:FromGlobalChampionstoLocalLoops|27
Howaresustainable
lifestylesachieved?
Thetransitiontopeople-powerthroughdifferent
networks,modelsofwikidemocracyandubiqui-
toustechnologyarebecomingpartofeveryday
life,alteringbehaviourtowardsmoresustainable
lifestylesinthe21stcentury.
Theimpactsofubiquitoustechnologycontinueto
shapepeople’sday-to-daypracticesevenmore
stronglythanmanythoughtintheearly2000s.
Differentapplicationsandpersonalservicesinflu-
encelifestyledecisions,consumerchoicesand
motivatebehaviourchangethatsupportsthe
8000kggoals.Takemobilityforinstance–once
personalizeddigitalservicesareinplace,co-
usingofcarsandpublictransitstartstowork,
basedonwhatismostpracticalforitsusers.
Energyefficienthousingbecamethenorminthe
early2020sasanewwaytocollectandmine
data.Openenergyconsumptiondatagaveabig
boosttoretrofitmarkets.Companiescouldeas-
ilyidentifyinhabitantswithsignificantpotential
forefficiencygainsandsavings.Homesturned
intosmartsystemswitheasytousegadgetsto
controlenergyconsumptionfromlighting,heat-
ing,useofappliancesandeventhecontentsof
thefridge.Ubiquitoustechnologystartedprovid-
inginstantfeedbackloopsthathelpedtochange
behaviouralchoicestowardsonesthatsupport
8000kgsustainablelifestyles.
Asthevirtualenvironmentismoreandmore
prominent,physicalconsumptiondecreasessig-
nificantly.Urbanspaceisfreedoutofoldunused
officesandremoteworkbecomesamainstream
alternative.Infrastructurebecomesaclosedloop
systemcombinedwithservicestakenoverbythe
virtualworld.Augmentedrealityservices,along
with3Dprinters,makeconsumptionmoresus-
tainablethroughthepersonalisationanddigitali-
sationoflifestyles.
WhatislifelikeinGoverningtheCommons?
Whatchangesbetween2012and2050?
EducationThemainfocusofeducationisonPeer-to-Peerskillssharing.Learningbydoingisemphasized,initerativeways.Pandemictechnol-
ogyenablesinstantfeedbackloops,whichacceleratesharingofknowledge.Focusoninformaleducationwhereclassroomsdon’t
exist.
WorkPeople’ssourcesofincomehavefragmented.Comprehensiveuseofskillsarevalued.Everyonehassomethingtooffertosociety.
Keywordsdescribingworkincludemicro-tasks,crowdsourcingandbeingusefultoone’speers.
CityCitiesarebasedonalreadyexistinginfrastructure.Officeandschoolbuildingshavebeenconvertedintoflatsandpublicspaces.
Urbanexperiencesareenrichedbyaugmentedreality.Peoplefindpersonalizedsolutionstofulfiltheirneedsandaspirationsonboth
thephysicalandvirtuallayers.
HealthPeer-to-Peernetworksupportischaracteristicofbothpreventativeandreactivehealthcare.Publicfundingisprovidedforhealth-
carecooperatives.Awidevarietyofhealthylifestyleshavebecomeroutinized.Digitalfeedbacktoolsareusedbyeveryone.
LivingPeopleliveinsmallflatsandworkinnewofficelofts.Thedigitallayeriskeytoprovidepeoplewithqualityintheirlives.
Smarthomes,austerefurnitureanddigitalservicescharacterizedomesticity.
FoodFoodproductionanddistributionaremanagedbyglobalfoodsystemsandsmartfoodstoragemechanismsareinplace.
Amultitudeofdietsareofferedandenergyintakeisreduced.Vegetablechoicesandsyntheticmeatsformdifferentiationsindiets.
MobilityMobilityisgreatlyreducedbytheuseofdigitaltools.Commutingisminimizedandtheconstructionofnewtrafficinfrastructurehas
becomeunnecessary.Smartpublictransitandcarandridesharingarethemainformsoftransport.
Consuming3D-printingpersonalizesconsumption.Materialconsumptionisreducedbyusingmodularappliances,whichenabledo-it-yourself
(DIY)repairandupgradeofproducts.Highdegreesofappliancepersonalization,virtualconsumptionandrecyclablegenericmateri-
alsformnewdesignandproducercultures,helpingtoreducetheoverallnumberofappliances.
EconomyMicro-taskscharacterizeeconomicorganization.Newbusinessesarecreatedinandbydata-richenvironments.Opensource,open
dataandfreedistributionofinformationdrivenewinnovation.Personaloptimization,DIY,peerservicesandmanufacturingaredriv-
ersoftheneweconomy.
Senseof
security
SenseofsecurityisheightenedbymembershipinPeer-to-Peercommunities.Democratizeddataempowerspeople.Easyaccessto
services,productsandglobalknowledge-basespromoteequality.Personalizedappliancesanddirectparticipationincreaseasense
ofbelongingandsecurity.
LeisuretimeLeisuretimeisformedaroundamultitudeofdigitalinteractions.Homeconsumption,highqualityhouseholdcapabilitiesanddigital
crowdexperiencesarethemainwaysofspendingfreetime.
GoverningtheCommonsscenario
narrative–howdiditallhappen?
»The3rdindustrialrevolution
»Ubitecheconomy
»Betterworkcreateswell-being
»Wikidemocracy
Thesedriversaredepictedaseventsonthetimeline.

28. 28|SPREADSustainableLifestyles2050
The3rdindustrialrevolution
Ubitecheconomy
Betterworkcreateswell-being
Wikidemocracy
2014:Socialmediadominatesglobalnarratives.Peer-producedcontentstartsto
emergeintheglobalmedia.Theeventsofthe2011ArabSpringhighlightthegrow-
ingimportanceofaccessibleglobalinformationnetworks.Peoplegetincreasingly
acclimatedtotheideaofexistingonlineandbuildingtheirpersonalidentitythrough
virtualmeans.Mediamoderatedrealityhitsnewheightsastheinternetstartsto
defineeverydaylifeandconnectcommunitiesworldwide,producingmoreinterest-
basedsocialgroupsthatonlyeverconnectinthevirtualrealm.
2013:Boycottsofpoliticstakingworld-
widehelptackleclimatechange.Global
treatiesareoutofreach,whichdrives
peopletoexpresstheirfrustrationwith
governments’andcorporations’inability
togenuinelyinterveneintheincreasingly
apparenteffectsofclimatechangeand
risingresourceprices.
2015:Thecrisesthatstartedin2008eventually
changesproductionstructuresandpeople’sworking
patterns,especiallyinmanyEuropeancountries.
Fewerandfewerpeopleworkpermanentlyforone
company.Diversificationinworkpatternsincreases.
2016:Companiespromotingsustainabilitybeginto
dominatethemarkets:Severaltechnologycompa-
niesintroduceGreenEarthpoliciesandsustainability
indexes,astheyareseenasastheonlywaytogainaa
positionasmarketleader.
2017:Theuseofmeshnetworks(community
datasystems)isspreadingtorecyclingand
green“interestgroups”.Initiallythesesub-
networksweredevelopedinLivingLabsand
wereusedbytheanti-corporateactivistsof
the2010seconomicdownturn.
2015:Thefirst3Dprintersforthemass
marketarrive.Atfirst,consumershave
tobuyspecificallypackedmaterialsfor
theprinterstowork.Theyareinspiredby
workatMIT’sFabLabs.Soonconsumers
starttocomeupwiththeirownsolutions.
2017:TheChristmasmarketsseeaflurryofexcitementover3Dprinting.
2017:AEurope-wide
studyrevealsthatsus-
tainabilityandethicsare
themainmotivational
driversforworkers.
2018:Thankstocrowd-sourcing,weknow
thattheeconomicimpactofnearlyevery-
thing:Ecopidiaiscreated.Eventuallythis
transformsintoGEKS,theGlobalExchange
andKnowledgeSystem,atoolthatcon-
nectsinformationandhelpssupportsus-
tainabilityworldwide.
2018:Customised3Dprintersthatcan
userecycledmaterialsstarttodominate
themarketsandmoretraditionalcom-
paniesstruggletocompetewithgoods
producedathome.
2015:Aglobalnetworkofenergy-
consciousconsumersstartsopenly
usingelectriccars,smartconsumption
solutionsandtomonitortheirpersonal
everydayclimateimpact.Theseearly
adoptershelpcreategrowingplatforms
foremergingtechnologiesandmomen-
tumforsupportivepolicies.
2019:Companieshaveembracedsustain-
ablepracticesinordertoincreaseemploy-
eemotivation.Stepbystepthisleadstoa
behaviourchangeinpeoples’livesaswell.
Workandhomebehavioursstarttooverlap
witheachother.
2019:Earth
treatyby
UN:national
democ-
racyhasto
respectthe
limitsofthe
earth.
2015
Mysonneverbuys
anythingthatismass-
produced.Hewants
tocustomiseitallby
himself.Ithinkallof
hisclothesarecustom
made.
“Ifoundyourflattobeveryinef-
ficientinenergyuse,”statesan
energyrepairservicethathasmoni-
toredmyapartment.
Icanusethehighlyefficienturbanmobilitysys
temtobuygroceriesandhavethemdelivered
straighttomyhome.
WhenIlookoutsidethewindow,I
canenjoygreenwallsbloomingwith
flowers,thepumpcleaningthewa-
ter,thesolarpanelsslowlyturningto
thesun.

29. ScenariosforSustainableLifestyles2050:FromGlobalChampionstoLocalLoops|29
2020:Thebiggestcompanyonlinelaunchesits“smartlife”and“smartcities”servicesofferingseveral
programmesthathelpmakesmartchoicesregardingthingslikehealthyandresourceefficientfood,
identifyingthemostsustainablemobilitychoices,settingtheoptimaltemperatureandlightinglevelsin
yourhomeordecidingwhentoretrofityourhouseorcallsomeonetorepairyourinefficientfridge.
2020:Companiesredesigntheir
humanresourcesstrategiesas
anincreasingnumberoftalented
individualsstartlookingforentre-
preneurialopportunities.
2021:Anetworkofenergyconsciousconsumers
whohaveopenlypublishedtheirclimateimpact
information,proposeasacitizens’acttoscaleup
theirbehaviour.Hackathoneventspowersimilar
citizeninitiativesacrossallEUcountries.Thegoal
istoreformtaxationsothatitsupportssustainable
consumerchoices.
2024:Consumerbrandsthathavenotyetstartedto
operatesustainablystarttooverproduce.Thiscycle
dramaticallydecreasesthequalityoftheproductsand
morepeopleturntowardsself-customization.
2023:Augmented-realityservicesbecomeavail-
ablein300Europeancities.Theseservicesalter
world-viewsandlifestylessignificantlyasthe
needtotravelandconstructdecreases.
2025:Peopleacrossdiffer-
entnetworksfindawide
rangeofmeanstosecure
anincomebydoingdiffer-
entkindsofmicrowork.
2025:Basedonthecitizens’actsoftheearly
2020s,allEUcountriesreformtheirtaxation
toincludeenvironmentalimpactsinprices.
2024:City3.0andthe“internetofthings”:sending
informationtoapartmentblock-based3Dprint-
ersinordertocreateanyobjectse.g.computers.
Reproductionstartsatcitylevel,whichdefinesthe
structureofthephysicalspace.
Afriendofminecameto
takealookatmyapart-
mentwithhisheatcamera.
Shecheckedmyenergy
consumptionandIordered
energyretrofittingfromher
onthespot!
20202025
I’mapartofaNo-Impact
Groupthatwasformed
5yearsago.Itreally
showedpeoplethatit
ispossibletolivewithin
planetarylimits.
“Mykidssay
thereare
enoughexcit-
ingthingsto
discoverin
digitalschools,
virtualtourism
servicesand
augmented
realitygames.
Youdon’t
needtotravel
tohavenew
experiencesas
Ioncedid.”
Everyvillageandsuburbhasaremoteco-workingspace
thatallowspeopletogettogether,sharethoughtsand
reducetheneedtocommute.Everymunicipalitysets
upthesespacesforpeopletoworkoreventogetnew
jobs,basedonearliersharedbrainstormingsessionand
cooperation.
2019:ThankstoGEKS,
diversedataregarding
peoples’homesisgath-
ered.Basedonthisdata,
inhabitantsreceivefeed-
backwhichencourages
homerepairesthathelpto
maximizeenergyefficiency.
Multi-players
open-airgames
Augmented
realityglasses

30. 30|SPREADSustainableLifestyles2050
The3rdindustrialrevolution
Ubitecheconomy
Wikidemocracy
2027:Acarsharingcompanythatuses
an“access”businessmodelrivals
traditionalmarketleadersinmobility
andacquiresoneofthetraditionalcar
companies.
2027:Theexampleofpeerpowerthatproducedthefamouscitizen
movementforsustainabilityintheearly2020s,inspiresmanymoreof
thesecitizens’acts.Largenumbersofpeopledraftcitizenmovements
thatarebasedonnotedbestpractices–thesemovementssoonstart
toshapemainstreamlifestyles.
2027:Recognitionisgivento
peopleinwaysthatdonot
makenarrowassumptions
aboutindividual’swork.
2029:80%ofEstoniancitizensownaper-
sonalappliancethatoptimizestheirmobility,
dietsandelectricityconsumptionthrough
constantrecognitionandfeedbackoftheir
consumerchoices.Thesepersonalappli-
ances,forexample,helppeopletooptimise
publictransportationuseandenabledifferent
typesofvehicleandridesharingschemes.
2030:Universaltransla-
torappsmakeitpos-
sibleforcommunities
worldwidetocommu-
nicatewitheveryone
everywhere.
2031:Smarttechnologiesandaugm
serviceshaveproducedanewbusin
doublesitssizeeachyearforthene
Accordingtostudiesthissectorem
peopleEurope-wide.
2026:Duetothe3D-print-
ingmarket,theNasdaq
succeedstheDowJones
asthegloballyrelevant
marketindex.
2026:Anewcompanythat
facilitatesdifferentmicrowork
opportunities,isamongthebig-
gestcompaniesinEurope.
2026:Usergrouporiented
hospitalsemergeandpeople
whosharesimilargeneticrisk
profilesforcertaindiseases
helpprovidebestpossible
care,knowledgeandreaction
timeforitscustomers.
Ionlybuybooks
withvirtualmoney.
Itmakesnosense
formetouse“real”
currenciesanymore
tobuybooks.
2030
There’sahighefficiencyinter-modalitysystemthat
letsmetravelbybike,trainandsharedcar–all
withinthesamenetwork.
TheWisePersonalFoodShopper
-applicationanalysesuser’sgenetic
dataandproposeshealthydiets.
Tobehonest,Ihaven’tseen
anewbuildingconstructed
inmytowninthepastfive
years.Instead,alloftheoffice
buildingshavebeenretrofit-
tedforresidentialuse.
“YoushouldmeetuponWednes-
dayinsteadofTuesdayasthere’s
verylittledifferenceinyour
preferences,butahugegapin
efficiencyinregardtomobility,for
instance.”saysmyphonewhenI
setupameetingwithmyfriend.
“Ioftenlogontotheseparticipative
governanceprogramsinordertomeet
peoplewithwhomIsharecommon
Betterworkcreateswell-being
Deliberativeproce
onlocalgovernan

31. ScenariosforSustainableLifestyles2050:FromGlobalChampionstoLocalLoops|31
2035
nted-reality
sssectorthat
tthreeyears.
loyseightmillion
2032:Copyrightisfoundtoberedundant,asthebestmethodto
mapsolutionsistocrowdsourceinputstoproblemsfromrelevant
onlinecommunities.Anexplosionofimmaterialcreativityfollows.
2033:Valueiscrowdsourcedthrougheverypiece
ofmeaningfulormeaninglessaction.Itisgath-
eredthroughdifferentsensorsandnowexceeds
theamountoftimepeoplespendexplicitlywork-
ing.Thevirtualenvironmenthasmadeitpossible
forneighboursnottocompetewithinthematerial
realm,whichleadsto,incredibleamountsofnew
onlinecontentcreation.
2036:Peoplemovebeyondthedivisionbetweenreal-
lifeandvirtualidentities;whateverhappensinone
automaticallyfollowsintotheotheraswell.People
-notcorporations-areinchargeofthenetworks.
“WhenIfinish
pickingup
andcustomis-
ingitemsfrom
virtualcata-
logues,Ican
justgodown-
stairsandpick
themupfrom
the3Dprinter
space.”
Anewbookcomesout
describinghowthelastof
thepoliticalpartiesisstill
hangingoninthere.Ifind
thesepartiestobearem-
nantofpast.Nowpolitical
decisionsstartfrom,and
areintimatelylinkedto,
everydaypractices.
Thisoldofficebuild-
ingisrenovatedand
willbecomeahighly
energyefficienthome
formanyfamilies.
Theseareamongthe
mostwantedhomes
available!
3Dprintingandself-
prototypingfacilities.
2034:Theclimatechangedenialof
the21stcenturyisviewedassome-
thingcomparabletothewitchhunts
ofthe17thcentury.
Myfriendwho’s
beenpartially
disabledforthe
past10yearsis
anactiveparticipantinso-
ciety,asdigitaltoolshave
empoweredhimtoaccess
informationandservices
asefficientlyasanyone
couldimagine.
Idon’tevenhavetouse
repairservicesasIcan
justupgrademy
modularappliance
byprintingoffanew
partforit.
“Ispendmost
ofmytimevery
efficiently.Even
whentravelling,I’m
completingamul-
titudeofdifferent
microtasks.”
2033:Usergrouporientedhospitals
initiateacitizens’acttoallocatemost
availablehealthcarefundstosupport-
ingthesehospitalsspecifically.
interests.Weregularlypropose
initiativesthatlaterbecomethe
basisofnewpolicies.”
Local
citizenship
networks
sses

32. 32|SPREADSustainableLifestyles2050
The3rdindustrialrevolution
Ubitecheconomy
Betterworkcreateswell-being
Wikidemocracy
2044:Citizenmovementsreplace
traditionalpoliticalmechanismsin
decision-making.Peer-to-peerpower
formsthebasisof“wikidemocracy.”
2045:Newlysetstandardsare
formedfordigitalnetworksto
serveasaplatformforprovid-
ingmanufacturingblueprints.
Theinternetisoneofthese
ad-hocnetworksofknowledge
exchange.
2042:Aglobalactforself-surveil-
lancetakesplace,initiatedbymany
ofthepeer-to-peernetworks.Every
digitalitemconnectedtotheglobal
networkoperateswithinsustainable
parameters.Exceedingthesepa-
rametersisonlypossibleoutsidethe
digitalrealm(whichforthemajority
ofthepeopleisimpossible).
“OurActiveHouseisconstantly
optimisingthewaywelive,from
suggestinggreencookingreci-
pesandautomaticallyprevent-
ingfoodwastetoimplementing
EnergyWatcherdietingpro-
gramsforthefamily.”
2040:Differentinterestgroups
provideblueprintsforindividuals
togatherresourcesand“print”
theirownitems,althoughinhighly
customisedways.Mostcorpora-
tionshavebeensucceededby
suchinterestgroups.
2040:Sustainabilityisnoteventalkedaboutanymoreasby2034global
knowledgeofwhatcanandcannotbedonewithintheboundariesof
oneEarthbecameapparenttoeveryone.Whatwereseenassustainable
lifestylesin2012aresimplyrationalchoicesin2040.
20402045
Iamamemberofahealthcen-
trewithmypeers.Thisspecific
centreisoptimisedforpeople
whohavethesamegeneticrisk
profilesasIdo.
Sensorsandfeed-
backsystems
Situatedadviseon
energyconsumption
Imonitormyhealthconstantly
throughthesesensorsthatare
installedinmyarm.It’sarelief.
Whateverhappens,myhospital
isawareofmyconditionandI
savealotofmoney,energyand
effortsinceIdon’thavetodothe
evaluationsmyself.Icantrustmy
doctorstodothem–nomore
futilevisitstothehospital!

33. ScenariosforSustainableLifestyles2050:FromGlobalChampionstoLocalLoops|33
2046:Thevalueoflifecomesfromnetworks.Toexististobepartof
aspecificnetwork.Peoplebuildtheirreputationsvirtuallyandthose
withagoodreputationcanjoinnetworksmoreeasilythanothers.
Whiletherulesandguidelinesofdifferentcommunitiesdiffer,interact-
inginthevirtualrealmisoneofthebasicformsofhumanbehaviour.
2049:Consumersrecycleeverythingin
their“printers.”Theonlytraditionalfactory
leftinEuropeproducesapartmentblock-
scale3Dprinters.
Idesignmyhome’snew
interiorbyputtingmyold
chairintomy
printersothat
Icangetanew
oneasaresult.
2050
TheDomesticFeedbackService
allowsseniorsinhouseholdstouse
userfriendlysmarthomesolutions
tocontrolandeducatetheirfami-
liesonsustainableliving.
MywifeandIhavesomeoldcooking
booksthatweuseforhomedecoration
aswehavenootherpracticalusefor
them.Itamusesusthatsomuchem-
phasiswasonceplacedontheprepara-
tionoffood.Instead,wejustuseour3D
printerstoprintsyntheticfoodthathas
veryhighnutritionvalue.
“Myfatherstudiedbio-engineeringandorganicfarmingandnowheisacook.Every
morninghelooksformicro-joboffershecanrespondto,fromcoachingyoungfarmers
todoingsustainableassessmentsofthefoodchain.Andhelovesit!”
Workingagenda
composedeveryday.
Onlinetaskoffers

34. 34|SPREADSustainableLifestyles2050
Mobility(dailyandtourism)
11000kg
Housing:building
2400kg
Product
consumption
2600kg
Leisuretime
1500kg
Food
7300kg
Housing:
electricity
3300kg
Others
900kg
Leisuretime
Consumernetworks
…firstorganiseintodecision
makersthataffectlocaland
globalpolicies.
Agilemarketingagencies
…makeuseofthepeerinformation
availableinpurchasingdecisions.
Constructioncompanies
…startsellingsmallscaleenergy
retrofittingservicestohomeowners
Gamingindustry
…growsinsignificanceand
turnsintoagiantcrowdsourc-
ingmechanismthatcombines
playingandwork.
Smartmobilitycompanies
…comeupwithpersonalizedsolu-
tionsthatletpeopleoptimizetheir
mobilitybasedontheirneeds.
Gatekeepersforlifestylechanges
Six-packofmostinfluentiallifestyletriggers
1.Allappliancesandbuildingsareequippedwiththetechnologytoadvisetheirusersonsmartuse
andmaintenancerequirements.Smart,energyefficientuseisthedefaultoption.Withthehelpof
diverseandplentifuldataabouttheirownandtheirpeers’homes,peoplereceivefeedbackthat
encouragesthemtorepairtheirhomessotheyreachmaximumenergyefficiency.
2.Smartmobilityserviceschangethewaypeopleplantheirtime,andhowtheycombineroutesand
modesoftransport.Theseserviceshelptooptimizepublictransportationuseandenablethede-
velopmentofvehicleandridesharingschemes.
3.UbiquitoustechnologiesgiverisetoanewecosystemofPeer-to-Peer—servicesthatareavailable
forpeoplewhenevertheyneedorwantthem.Theseserviceswithretrofittinghomesorchoosing
sustainabledietaryoptions,amongotherthings.
4.Anewgenerationofvirtualrealityandonlinecommunitiesbecomespopular,whichmeansade-
creaseinneedsforlargelivingspaces,furnitureandevenfoodstuffs.
5.Thescaleupof3D-printingchangesthewaypeopleseekself-actualisation.Consuminggoods
designedandmadebysomeoneelseisnolongerthemostelaboratewaytoexpressone’sidentity
andstyle.Instead,peoplecollectivelydesignthegoodstheydesireandwanttobeidentifiedwith.
6.Onlinenetworksbuiltonasharedinterestinlifestyleissuesenablepeopletorealisetheirpotential
andtoconstitutethemselvesasgroupswithpoliticalpower.Theexampleandsupportofothernet-
workmembersencouragesexperimentationwithnewsustainablelifestylepatterns.Graduallythese
networksandexperimentsgrowintomovementsthatstartreformingthepoliticalagenda.
TheaveragematerialfootprintofaEuropeanin
2050intheGoverningtheCommonsscenario(8000
kgperpersoninayear)comparedtotheaverage
materialfootprintin2007(29000kg).
Mobility
(dailyandtourism)
2700kg
Food
2500kg
Housing:
building
1400kg
Others
200kg
Housing:
electricity
300kg
Product
consumption
500kg
Leisure
time
400kg

35. ScenariosforSustainableLifestyles2050:FromGlobalChampionstoLocalLoops|35
LocalLoops
Criticalchallengesandsolutionsinthe
scenarioGoverningtheCommons
Q1.Howtominimizetheconsumptionofresourcesin
termsofpowerproductionandICTproduction?
1.Energyisproducedfromdiverserenewablesourcesand
distributedwiththehelpofaEurope-widesupergrid.
2.Fossilfuelsphasedoutfollowingaglobaltreaty.Lotsof
playersinenergymarketsharnessingvarioussources.
3.Virtualservices,entertainmentandcommunitiesare
soattractivethatithasreducedtheneedforspacein
homes.Ubiquitoustechnologieshaveenabledgrowthof
servicesthatincreasesmartandefficientuseofhomes.
4.PeopleuselessICTappliances,becausethereisonly
needforonedeviceyoualwayscarry.Modularappli-
ancesandcentralizedcloudfarmswithoptimallocation
ensurelonglife-cycleforappliances,aswellasefficient
resourceuse.
Q2.Howtolimitmobilityandtheenvironmentalimpacts
ofinformationtechnologyinaubiquitoussociety?
1.Virtualconsumption,personaloptimizationanddirect
behaviouralfeedbackreducecommutingandtravel
needs.Meetingvirtuallyischeaper,smarterandcooler.
2.Althoughpeopledon’tfeelthereismuchneedfor
travellinganymore,smartandflexiblepublictransport,
car-sharingandslowairtravel(e.g.solarZeppelines)are
inusetosomeextent.
3.Citiesaredense.Therearefewnewbuildingsand
retrofittedflats.Thebasicinfrastructureofthe2010’s
remains.
4.Changingproductionandemploymentpatternsmake
alargepartofofficebuildingstockredundantintheir
previoususe.Thishasenabledsmarturbangrowth:af-
fordablenewhomesincentrallocations.
Q3.Howtomakesurethatdecentralizedproduction
ofitemspromotessustainability?
1.Although3Dcomponentprintingand3Dshoppingcul-
turehavebecomepopular,virtualconsumptionensures
thatpeopleownonlyasmallamountoftailoredpersonal
goods.Thesearemainlymadeoutofrecycledmateri-
alsinordertocomplywiththeglobaltreatyonresource
efficiency.

36. 36|SPREADSustainableLifestyles2050
LocalLoops
Thedramaticriseofresourcepricesandthescar-
cityofoilfinallyarrivesinlate2010s,thoughit
comesasagreatsurprisetomany.Severalcom-
panies,politiciansandcitizenswereill-prepared
foraneraofradicalriseofresourcepricesand
oilscarcity.Theriseoflogisticscostsmeanta
shifttowardslocalproduction.Thismakespeople
viewlocalresources,likesoil,inanewlight.
Asareactiontotheneweraofgrowingresource
pricesinthe2020s,therewasacitizenuprising,
whichforcedseveralEuropeanstatesandtheEU
tolaunchnewprogrammestore-definepolicy
structurestosupporttheresourceconstrained
reality.Thenewprogrammeswerebasedonan
ideaof“localresourceloops”,referringtolocal
regionsthatareself-sufficientinkeyresources.
Theseprogrammesfoundinspirationintransi-
tiontownandeco-villageexperimentsthathad
beengrowingsteadilyinthepreviousdecades.
Thisdoesnotmeanthatallproductionoffoodor
energynecessarilyhappenswithinthecitylimits,
butratherthatcitieshavemanagementsystems
helpingtomapresourceflowsandmaintainclose
tieswithproductionfacilitiescreatingaLocal
Loopwiththem.
IntheworldofLocalLoopsscientificexpertise
stilldominatesglobalstructures.Thetechnologi-
calandscientificknowledgebaseisglobaland
evenlydistributed.Buttheemphasisofmany
businessesandprofessionsisonuser-centred
designthatproducessmartandcreativelocal
adaptations.Intheirheartsandmindspeoplestill
recognizetheirdependenceonglobalnetworks,
buttheyvaluelocalproductsandculturemore
thanperhapsprecedinggenerationsdid.Con-
sumerchoicesbecomemoreuniform–onlya
fewwouldbuyfurniture,clothes,cheeseorcere-
alsproducedoutsidetheirLocalLoop.Foreign
designsandflavoursjustarenotappealingtothe
averageconsumeranymore.Thisallmarksanew
phaseofglobalcultureandglobalization.
Allloopshavetheirowncombinationofinflu-
entialprofessionalgroups.Localprofessional
guildsformthecoreoflocalinnovationsystems
andcompetitiveness.Theyarealsoanextremely
importantforceinpoliticshelpingtoprepareleg-
islationthatisbasedonlocalresources,medical
practicesandtheboundarieswithinwhichglobal
sustainabilityispossible.
InsocietiesofLocalLoopsworkhasaspecial
value,partlybecauselocalvaluechainsarevery
clear.Peopleunderstandthattheyaredepend-
entoneachothers’skills.Thisunderlinesthat
everyone’sworkismeaningful.Othersknowthat
theyneedyourwork;yourworksolvescommon
issues.Theboundariesofworkandfreetimeare
unclear.
Howaresustainable
lifestylesachieved?
Peoplespendmostoftheirtimeaddingvalueto
theircommunities,whichissomethingtheycan
bestdothroughengaginginguildsasmembers.
Aflourishingservicesectorwithintheloopshelps
peopletooutsourceeverydayroutinessuchas
Singular
SuperChampions
LocalLoops
Governing
theCommons
Empathetic
Communities
Pandemictechnology
Endemictechnology
Human-centrism
Meritocracy
AlternativeSustainable
Society3:Supporting8000kg
SustainableLifestyles
LocalLoopsisascenarioinwhicharadical
energycrisisforcessocietiestore-evaluatefun-
damentallythefoundationsoftheirwell-being.
Energyandresourcesystemsareincreasingly
seenthough“LocalLoops”,whichisatechni-
calconceptthatcanbeappliedinthecontext
oflocalandregionalproductioncycles.Peo-
plebuildtheirlifestyleandwaysofbelonging
aroundtheirwork,whiletechnologyisbetter
adaptedthroughlocaldesignsolutions,which
createroomfornewkindsofprofessionalism.
Anewethosofcraftsmanshipandprofessional
communitiesshapethewaypeoplelive,organ-
izetheirworkandspendtheirleisuretime.

37. ScenariosforSustainableLifestyles2050:FromGlobalChampionstoLocalLoops|37
cookingordoinglaundry,whichinturnreleases
timeforcollaboration.Thecentralizedexecution
oftheforementionedhouseholdtasksreducesthe
materialfootprintatthecommunitylevel,byen-
suringthereislessfoodwasteandmoreefficient
useofappliancesandindoorspaces.
Abreakthroughinsolarpaneltechnologyandef-
ficientneighbourhoodcombinedheatandpower
(CHP)systemshelpstobringcarbonemissions
oflivingspacesdown.Aspeoplespendmostof
theirtimeinworkinghubs,collaboratingwiththeir
guildpeers,lessspaceisneededforhomesthan
in2012.Collaborativeconsumptionispersonified
asmosthomeappliancesaresharedamongst
neighbours,andarelocatedinthesharedspaces
ofbuildings.Realizingthatthelocallydesigned
goodsmeettheirneedsbetter(technologicalin-
novationshavefocusedonlocalsolutions),people
preferthemovertheirinternationalsubstitutes.Lo-
caladaptationsareveryappealingtopeople,their
maintenanceiseasierandconvenientrecycling
andup-cyclingservicesareinplace.
Thereisnoneedtoleaveone’sneighborhood
oftenaspeoplelivenearbytheirwork,familyand
peers.Cyclingroutesandwalkinglanesarein
goodconditionandarebuiltaroundthebestpos-
siblescenerytomeetmultipleuserneeds.This
easyaccesstoconvenientandhealthymobilityled
toresilientbehaviourchanges,nudgingpeopleto
walkandcycletogetaroundinsteadofusingcars
orotherimpactfultransport.
Forholidaysandleisuretime,newsocialnorms
incentivisepeopletostayclosetohome.Local
WhatislifelikeintheLocalLoops?
Whatchangesbetween2012and2050?
EducationEducationisabouttransmittingandsharingskills.
Craftsmanshipandspecializationarepromotedthroughmutualteachingandproblem-basedlearning.
WorkWorkischaracterizedbyengagementwithissuesandcollaborationwithinandamongguilds.
Needsmetbyapplyingdesignthinkingandformulatinglocalsolutions.
CityCitiesaremulticentredandformedintotheirownloops.
Guildsworkingandlivingintheloopslaytheirownstrongcharacteristicsontheirloops.
HealthWorkplacesprovidehealth-careandskilleddoctors.
Therearebasicrightsthatallregionsagreetoprioritizewithregardtohealth-care.
LivingLivingintheloopsischaracterizedbysharedspaces,existinginfrastructureandco-workingspaces.
Guildmembersoftenliveinthesameneighbourhood
FoodFoodproductionanddistributionaremarkedbylocality,minimizedtransportationandneighbourhoodcanteens.
Energyusedforfoodproductionisoptimized.
MobilityTransportationisaboutwalkabilityandcycling.Existinginfrastructureisoptimized.
Intercitymobilityisneededlessandservicesarehome-delivered.Localtourismandlongvacationsarefavouredbypeople.
ConsumptionConsumptiondriversincludeamassquesttoreducetheoverallvolumeofappliancesneededthroughsharingschemesand
replacementservices.Productsaremadewithhigh-qualitylocalmaterialsanddesign.Availabilityofforeigngoodsislimited.All
productsarerepairable.
EconomyTheeconomyisbasedaroundlocaluser-centricadaptationsandefficientlocalclustering.
SenseofsecuritySenseofsecurityisgeneratedthroughguildsandunderstandingofhowthesystem,i.e.theclosedcycles,work.
Peopleidentifythemselvesprimarilyaspartoftheirworkcommunities.
LeisuretimePeoplehaveoutsourcedtheirhouseworkinordertobeabletomaximizetheirinputsinworkcommunities.
Leisuretimeismostlyspentwithguildmembers.
LocalLoopsscenarionarrative
–howdiditallhappen?
»Peak-oilgame-changer
»Rediscoveryoflocalresources
»Localturn
»Craftsmanattitude
Thesedriversaredepictedaseventsonthetimeline.
touristdestinationshaveincreasedinnumber
andprovidedesirablerecreationalvaluesuchas
localbiodiversityreservesorfarmsproducing
theirfavouritefoodproducts.In2050,membersof
somefamiliesmightstillliveindifferentcities.To
seeeachother,familymembersmaytakelonger
holidaystogetherinoneofthelocaltourismdesti-
nations.