The document discusses a new report by researchers at the Centre for Alternative Technology (CAT) in the UK. The CAT has a history of pointing towards a sustainable energy future for Britain. Their new report, called "Zero Carbon Britain 2030", describes in detail how the UK could transition to a zero carbon society as early as 2030. The report models how the UK could achieve this transition through steps like rationalizing energy demand, implementing low/zero carbon supply systems, and employing net-negative carbon processes.
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Zero carbon britain 2030
1. Since their pioneeringSince their pioneering Low Energy Strategy forLow Energy Strategy for
the UKthe UK in 1977, the Centre for Alternativein 1977, the Centre for Alternative
Technology has been pointing the way towardsTechnology has been pointing the way towards
a sustainable energy future for Britain.a sustainable energy future for Britain.
Now the CAT researchers have done it again.Now the CAT researchers have done it again.
Their newTheir new zerocarbonbritain2030zerocarbonbritain2030 report,report,
describes in detail how the UK could make thedescribes in detail how the UK could make the
transition to a zero carbon society as early astransition to a zero carbon society as early as
2030.2030.
Derby Climate CoalitionDerby Climate Coalition
Derby October 2010Derby October 2010
8. COMPARE WITH UK NATIONAL POLICY
UK O FFIC IA L B UD G ET (PR O JEC TED , TO TA L
173 2 3 M TC O 2 E)
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
9. COMPARE WITH UK NATIONAL POLICY
SLOW START: TOTAL 20788
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
UK O FFIC IA L B UD G ET (PR O JEC TED , TO TA L
173 2 3 M TC O 2 E)
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
10. COMPARE WITH UK NATIONAL POLICY
SLOW START: TOTAL 20788
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
RAPID START, TOTAL 12688
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
UK O FFIC IA L B UD G ET (PR O JEC TED , TO TA L
173 2 3 M TC O 2 E)
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
11. COMPARE WITH UK NATIONAL POLICY
SLOW START: TOTAL 20788
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
RAPID START, TOTAL 12688
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
UK O FFIC IA L B UD G ET (PR O JEC TED , TO TA L
173 2 3 M TC O 2 E)
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
ZCB scenario 2008-2050 with net sequestration.
Total 7958MtCO2e
-500
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
20. • 56% reduction in
energy use by 2030
• Sector by Sector:
– Built environment
– Transport
– Land-use
– Industry
– Behaviour
21. • Domestic approx 30%
total emissions
2030 - reduce energy use
(heating & lighting) by 80%
• Non-domestic 25% of
total emissions
2030 - 37% reduction in
emissions
• Large emphasis on
retrofitting UK Buildings are incredibly inefficient
Built environment
22. • High proportion of
natural materials
low embodied energy
& sequestration
• Insulating - large-scale
retro-fit programme.
• Heat pumps
• Thermal Comfort
• Energy Service
Companies (ESCO’s)
Built environment
23. • Partial modal shift - private
car to public transport,
walking and cycling
• Reduction in passenger km
• Change of energy source
from fossil fuels
• Electrification of cars, trains
& LGV’s
Electric cars get a makeover
Transport - overview
24. • No domestic aviation,
1/3 international on current
levels
• High speed electric train
network
• Indigenous bioenergy &
hydrogen to power HGV’s
and planes
Why don’t we have these in the UK?
Transport
35. AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTS: GHG EMISSIONS, LAND REQUIREMENT, OUTPUT.
ADJUSTED FOR NUTRITIONAL VALUE AFTER MAILLOT 2009
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
O
TH
ER
C
RO
PSO
ATS
PE
AS
AN
D
BEANS
FR
U
IT
BE
ET
VE
G
ETABLESBA
RLEY
PO
TATOES
RAPE
PR
O
TECTED
C
ROPS
W
H
EAT
HO
RS
ES
etc
EG
GS
PIG
S
SH
EEP
PO
ULTRY
BE
EF
M
ILK
FOOD PRODUCT GROUPS, IN TWO CLASSES
EMISSIONS,KT,LAND,KHAX4,PRODUCTKT
Nutrionally-adjusted product
Land used
GHG emissions
36. COMPARISON OF EXISTING AND ZCB2030 SCENARIO EMISSIONS
-30000
-25000
-20000
-15000
-10000
-5000
0
5000
10000
15000
PRODUCTS IN THREE CLASSES, RANKED BY EMISSIONS
GHGEMISSIONS,KTCO2e/year
Scenario emissions
existing emissions
37. Area functions in the Scenario
Food
Energy
Sequestration
Other
Urban land
Biodiversity
Amenity
Recreation
Protected
areas etc
53Mt food
176TWh
primary
energy
-68MtCO2e
38. Area functions in the Scenario
Food
Energy
Sequestration
Other
Urban land
Biodiversity
Amenity
Recreation
Protected
areas etc
53Mt food
176TWh
primary
energy
-68MtCO2e
39.
40.
41. Balance of GHG emissions from
land use processes – at present
AGRICULTURE AND LAND USE:
BALANCE OF POSITIVE AND NEGATIVEEMISSIONS
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
POSITIVEANDNEGATIVEEMISSIONS,MILLIONS
OFTONNESCO2E
Grazing livestock
Non-grazing livestock
Crop products
Imports
Negative emissions
49. I.Mech.E. “MAG” Model
• Similar to ZCB in principle, 80% by 2050
• Only technical measures to power down
50. I.Mech.E. “MAG” Model
• Similar to ZCB in principle, 80% by 2050
• Only technical measures to power down
• Uses nuclear, CCS, renewables to power up
51. I.Mech.E. “MAG” Model
• Similar to ZCB in principle, 80% by 2050
• Only technical measures to power down
• Uses nuclear, CCS, renewables to power up
• Much more attention to adaptation
52. I.Mech.E. “MAG” Model
• Similar to ZCB in principle, 80% by 2050
• Only technical measures to power down
• Uses nuclear, CCS, renewables to power up
• Much more attention to adaptation
‘Air capture’ for net-negative processes
60. MAINSTREAM
DEMANDS ON THE
ENERGY SYSTEM
Keep itcheap!
No Power Cuts!
LOTS of it!
...AND NO
OFFSETS!
...OR CARBON
CAPTURE AND
STORAGE!
61. MAINSTREAM
DEMANDS ON THE
ENERGY SYSTEM
Keep itcheap!
No Power Cuts!
LOTS of it!
...AND NO
OFFSETS!
...OR CARBON
CAPTURE AND
STORAGE!
...OR GEO-ENGINEERING!
62. MAINSTREAM
DEMANDS ON THE
ENERGY SYSTEM
Keep itcheap!
No Power Cuts!
LOTS of it!
...AND NO
OFFSETS!
...OR CARBON
CAPTURE AND
STORAGE!
...OR GEO-ENGINEERING!
...OR
BIOFUELS!
63. MAINSTREAM
DEMANDS ON THE
ENERGY SYSTEM
Keep itcheap!
No Power Cuts!
LOTS of it!
...AND NO
OFFSETS!
...OR CARBON
CAPTURE AND
STORAGE!
...OR GEO-ENGINEERING!
...OR
BIOFUELS!
...OR
LIFESTYLE
CHANGES!
64. MAINSTREAM
DEMANDS ON THE
ENERGY SYSTEM
Keep itcheap!
No Power Cuts!
LOTS of it!
...AND NO
OFFSETS!
...OR CARBON
CAPTURE AND
STORAGE!
...OR GEO-ENGINEERING!
...OR
BIOFUELS!
...OR
LIFESTYLE
CHANGES!
67. NO ABSOLUTE TABOOS?
• If it’s this serious everything must be on
the table
• We would need to discuss in good faith
matters that we have spent lifetimes
campaigning against
68. NO ABSOLUTE TABOOS?
• If it’s this serious everything must be on
the table
• We would need to discuss in good faith
matters that we have spent lifetimes
campaigning against
Others have honest and well-researched
scenarios too
The size shows historical carbon emissions debt. How can we point a finger at the developing south and demand they decarbonise when we are responsible for the problem, and arent being ambitious ourselves?
We don’t use our energy wisely. The UK is still caught in an energy mindset of sometime around the 50’s when it was cheap. Our bills keep rising, we keep sourcing from increasingly unstable sources, but we can make massive efficiency gains.
It will be so much easier to manage a shift to low carbon technologies with reduced demand. The measures we propose also help to smooth our demand cycles, create warmer more comfortable homes and generally increase wellbeing.
56% requires some very ambitious projects and changes, but noone said getting down to zero was going to be easy.
We start in the Built environment, which accounts for a over half of our total emissions. But looking at the state of our homes, this is a very inefficient sector.
Our solutions are based around the synergies of sectors, and demonstrates the interactions and holistic approach to decarbonisation needed.
We recommend a massive increase in the use of natural materials. These materials have a much lower embodied energy - the energy needed to create them. Materials such as wood, rammed earth and hemp-crete have small environmental footprints, are non-toxic, and also have the added advantage of giving a home a warm and natural feel. But where do these materials come from? What are the added advantages of using them? How will this change effect the rest of the energy system?
In our scenario we’ve connected the dots, such as between building and land use, and the sequestration potential of natural materials. By locking carbon away in buildings in the from of wood and biomass we’re mopping up residual emissions. Assuming a high carbon price, there could be the situation whereby you would be paid to use wood and lock away carbon. This will require a revitalisation of the rural economy as these important materials are grown. More on that later.
Again connecting the dots in the next point. The war-time style effort of retrofitting and insulating will help boost our ailing job market, and create thousands of jobs for tradesmen, builders and the building industry. If I was your average builder I’d be in the front-line of the demonstrations, its going to mean a LOT of employment opportunities. So finish up your bacon butty and get your placard.
Swiftly on to transport. I do often think our system is rather archaic. In an age of satelite communication, CERN particle colliders and Big brother, why are we still exploding toxic substances. We’re like children with fire crackers. Surely we can come up with something better? The technology we use in our transport hasn’t changed since Henry Ford.
When we talk about electric cars the days of the G-Whizz are over. Weird bubble cars out the Jetsons are outmoded. Our infatuation with beauty and speed can still be answered, but quietly and without the noxious smell. The technology is getting better, if we make a commitment to go in this direction, with the associated incentives to the industry and tax breaks to consumers, we could see very rapid leaps forward in making this technology a reality. Cleaner air, less noise, no massive tanker trucks on the roads, and free from the fluctuating oil prices that are beyond our control.
This Sounds like a society I’d want to be part of.
Again, theres lots of dots to connect up that we’ve explored. Where does the electricity come from? Can we deliver it? How much pressure does this put on the grid? What about heavy goods vehicles and their power requirements? I cant go into the detail of all these in this presentation, but this is how we should be thinking about decarbonisaiton. As a whole not lots of little parts.
Getting to zero is going to mean some difficult tradeoffs though. But we have tried to create a scenario that makes allowances for the global nature of our society.
Aviation is the hot potato of climate mitigation. The resent trends in flying patterns can easily be reversed. Journeys can be made through high speed trains, and international long haul holidays will be less frequent but for a longer period.
The use of biofuels is a contentious issue, as the rush into this fuel has contributed to global deforestation and food price rises. In our scenario, the use of biofuels assumes only locally produced energy crops, matched by changes to our diets through massive decreases in meat consumption (dealt with in the land use chapter). It is not a technology that can be pursued in isolation, but must be carefully planned so as not to have negative environmental effects.
Our 2030 society is healthier and happier. Transport is as much about town planning as actual travel. We choose our transport mode according to the structure of our environment. If the shops and work were closer, with more home days, and public transport systems are efficient and effective.
Looking at the total energy picture, offshore wind is roughly half total supply. The next biggest use will be heat pumps. Don’t forget that this energy mix is 100% renewable. There are NO fossil fuels in our vision.
This very complicated diagram is a Sankey diagram for our energy supply and demand. The thickness of the line indicates the no. of terawatt hours per source (left) to its end use (right).
Note that the loses (bottom) are minimal