Self Driving Cars V11

Self Driving Cars, Autonomous Vehicles & Shared Mobility
Reality, Timelines & Impacts
1
Kevin Root
September 2015
V1-Sept 2015 Prepared by Kevin Root www.linkedin.com/in/kevinroot

Target Audience & Document Objective
This document is an overview of key findings that I have compiled from reputable sources as well as my
interpretation for how we in the auto industry and technology space will be effected. I believe most of my
industry colleagues are interested in better understanding the impact on existing businesses and
timelines. I anticipate this might be a good thought starter for many organizations.
NOTE
This document was designed to be read, not presented. It is text heavy by design and contains many links
to additional sources of information. I am careful to reference resources and provide a list of additional
references at the end of the deck.
Automotive technology leaders,
strategists & product planners &
managers
Technology/Application
developers & suppliers
Manufacturers &
suppliers
TARGET AUDIENCE
2V1-Sept 2015 Prepared by Kevin Root www.linkedin.com/in/kevinroot

About Me
I am both a car guy and a technologist. I have spent over 25 years in the
automotive industry specifically in digital marketing and technology. I have led
product and strategic planning for some of the largest technology vendors in the
industry.
Besides cars and driving, my passion is researching consumer behavior and
technology in order to anticipate and proactively take advantage of shifting
patterns.
When I started this project I was blown away by the magnitude of changes that
will occur with autonomous cars. I decided to compile my findings and share so
that others can start to contemplate and plan for what will be the most significant
innovation in our lifetime.
I wanted this document to be a compilation of published works and reports from
others. As such, I have kept my opinions out of this so that the reader can draw
their own conclusions without influence. That said, I have many strong thoughts
and views of my own and am happy to share them. Drop me a line!
- Kevin Root
3
I can be reached via LinkedIn at
www.linkedin.com/in/kevinroot

Key Deﬁnitions
As in many emerging technology spaces,
definitions and terms differ depending on
the source. In this document, I use terms
consistent with many leading publications
on the topic.
SELF-DRIVING CAR
Any car with features that allow it to accelerate,
brake, and steer a course with limited or no driver
interaction.
•  Autonomous vehicle: can drive from point A to
point B and encounter the entire range of on-
road scenarios without needing any interaction
from the driver.
•  Fully autonomous are further divided into user-
operated and driverless vehicles. Because of
regulatory and insurance questions, user-
operated fully autonomous cars will come to
market within the next five years, while driverless
cars will remain further out.
1

Key Deﬁnitions
As in many emerging technology spaces,
definitions and terms differ depending on
the source. In this document, I use terms
consistent with many leading publications
on the topic.
VEHICLE-TO-VEHICLE (V2V)
is an automobile technology designed to allow
automobiles to "talk" to each other
VEHICLE-TO-INFRASTRUCTURE (V2I)
Communications for Safety is the wireless
exchange of critical safety and operational data
between vehicles and roadway infrastructure,
intended primarily to avoid motor vehicle crashes
SHARED MOBILITY
The shared use of a vehicle that enables users to
have short-term access to transportation modes on
an “as-needed” basis
2
3
4

Connected Cars vs. Autonomous Cars
CONNECTED CARS are vehicles that use
a range of communication technology –
including dedicated short range
communication(DSRC) to relay
information about their speed, heading
and direction to other vehicles, to roadside
infrastructure, to traffic operations centers
and even to pedestrian smartphones.
Commonly referred to as vehicle-to-
vehicle (V2V), vehicle-to-infrastructure
(V2I) and vehicle-to-pedestrian (V2P), and
collectively as V2X.
Connected vehicles are projected by the
U.S. Department of Transportation to
reduce roadway fatalities caused by
impaired drivers by more than 80 percent
when all vehicles are equipped with such
features.

Connected Cars vs. Autonomous Cars
AUTONOMOUS CARS are vehicles that are
capable of piloting themselves without human
intervention. Using a combination of sensors,
video, LIDAR and high-end processing power, the
advent of autonomous cars has shifted into high-
gear in recent years.
Just a few years ago, most projections placed the
arrival of autonomous cars on U.S. roads at some
time in the mid-2020s.
Now automakers like Tesla, GM and Honda are
aiming to develop viable autonomous vehicles
much sooner.

The Situation

The transition to electric and driverless cars will
usher forth a step-change in both quality of life and
economic productivity, and potentially be the most
transformational social development since the
World Wide Web. It will change the way we live and
many of the fundamentals of the global economy.
- Levi Tillemann
The Great Race: The Global Quest for the Car of the Future

Cars are used
only about one
hour a day and
sit idle in a
parking space
or garage most
of the time.
The car, on our
estimates, is the world’s
most underutilized
asset,...
We believe it's the most
disruptable business
on earth.
-  Morgan Stanley lead auto analyst,
Adam Jonas 2015

In the future, people will
buy mobility rather than
cars.

It will gain
momentum
within 5 years.
Its impact will be
significant within
10 years
12
2015 2020 2025 2030
This evolution is just over the horizon.

Cars are generally an individual’s largest
or second-largest investment, depending
on whether they own a home.
And yet cars sit unused
about 96% of the time.

Dynamic Forces & Emerging Transportation
ARE CHALLENGING TRADITIONAL VEHICLE OWNERSHIP MODELS.
These include:
•  Increased urbanization, global warming, increasing congestion & highway fatality rates, electrification, connected cars, adoption of ride sharing
and constant connectivity, all contribute to the increased potential for disruption of the current automotive model.
•  Welcome to the age of “TaaS” – Transportation as a Service and “transportation tech”.

The Vision of
Autonomous Vehicles

AV Vision of the End State
TRANSPORTATION FOCUS WILL SHIFT.
•  Mobility over ownership
•  Use a smartphone app to summon an
autonomous vehicle which will arrive in 5
minutes or less, that can be used for
anything from commuting to the office,
taking kids to school or shuttling us to
the airport.
16
Source : Bridges, Rutt (2015-05-10). Driverless Car Revolution: Buy Mobility, Not Metal

Key Beneﬁts
Instead of fighting rush-hour
traffic, we will be able to read,
watch the morning news, or get
an early start on the workday.
We’ll enjoy chauffeur
service for less than
bus fare.
Cost will be about 39 cents a mile for a
two-passenger vehicle, a fraction of
what it costs to own, insure, maintain
and operate a personal vehicle.
1 2 3
17

Other Beneﬁts
•  Most importantly, vehicle
fatality rates will drop as
these vehicles are immune
to the distraction, fatigue,
road rage, impatience,
intoxication, and the foolish
mistakes that cause 93% of
all accidents.
•  Accidents will be rare,
mostly erasing the 30,000
annual fatalities from car
crashes in the US.
18

19
The Use Case for
Autonomous Vehicles

Key Beneﬁts
•  CHILDREN: Over-scheduled
parents will get their lives
back as their kids share rides
with parent-approved friends,
and parents organize
driverless vanpools for sports
teams.
•  TEENAGERS: Texting while
driving will disappear as the
leading cause of death for
teenagers as will all reckless
driving due to impaired
judgment and driving under
the influence.

Key Beneﬁts
•  ADULTS: Safely use phones, laptops, and
tablets. Some will get a jump-start on the work
day, others will socialize or enjoy a video.
•  ELDERLY: No longer dependent on driving,
aging will have little to no effect on transportation
and independence.
•  DISABLED: Enjoy improved mobility with on-call,
door-to-door service in specialized vehicles.
•  WORKING POOR: Greater access to higher-
paying jobs with inexpensive, reliable
transportation. Higher quality of life and time
savings not having to rely on buses and other
mass transit.
21

Key Beneﬁts
•  CITIES: Parking garages are turned into city parks, housing or other needed
space.
•  MASS TRANSIT: Driverless cars will provide better transit service than local
buses for a fraction of the cost.
•  HIGHWAYS: The national average ratio of 1.08 commuters per vehicle will
increase and highway congestion declines as vehicles are able to pool
together at higher speeds.
•  ENVIRONMENT: Unless gasoline drops below about 60 cents a gallon,
autonomous cars will be electric. Decreased burning of oil and increased use
of solar combined with newer low-emissions natural gas generators will
significantly slow climate change.
•  POLICE: With the appropriate judicial clearances, an officer could ask the
vehicle to identify its occupants and location histories.

Families will save thousands of dollars
a year by switching from two cars to
one or from one to none.

24
Autonomous Vehicles
Today

The Major Players
•  While most automakers are focused on
incremental self-driving features, Google
leads the pack in developing truly
driverless cars.
•  Sergey Brin has suggested that Google will
not sell cars but simply sell mobility. He
believes that people will be able to
summon a vehicle with a smartphone
quickly and easily and be driven wherever
they wish to go.
•  Audi, BMW, Volvo, Nissan and Tesla have
also recognized the opportunity and have
aggressive plans to move beyond the limits
of self-driving vehicles.
•  Other automakers have undisclosed plans
for greater vehicle autonomy.
Technology/Ride sharing companies
Automotive
manufacturers/OEMs
Key Suppliers/Vendors
25
This section covers THREE PRIMARY GROUPS
working on autonomous cars today
1
2
3

Technology & Mobility Companies
The leader in fully autonomous.
Something in the works?
In a partnership with the
University of Arizona and
Carnegie Mellon, has set up the
Uber Advanced Technologies
Center in Pittsburgh. Reportedly
testing self-driving technology
focused on mapping and optics
challenges.
26
GOOGLE
APPLE
UBER

Google
•  Approximately 50 vehicles – 23 Lexus RX
450h SUVs and 25 purpose-built prototypes
currently driving around Mountain View,
California.
•  Fleet of self-driving cars have already driven
more than 1.1 million miles in autonomous
mode and are being tested in Mountain View,
California, and Austin, Texas.
•  Currently driving 10,000 autonomous miles per
week on public streets.
27
Source Googles’ Self Driving Car Project Website

Google’s Fully Autonomous Car
•  See Google’s Self-Driving Car Project Website here
•  View Google’s video demonstrating their fully autonomous vehicle here

Tesla Motors
TESLA MOTORS infrastructure positions it well to capture a significant part of the TaaS
market:
•  Direct and online sales with a global network of showrooms and galleries located in urban
centers around the world.
•  About 160 (as of end of 2014) Tesla Service Plus Centers locations with more coming online.
•  Network of Supercharger stations for owners to charge their vehicles for half an hour for free
improving the adoption rate of electric vehicles overall.
ANALYST COMMENTS
•  Trip Choudhry picked up Tesla Motors Inc (NASDAQ:TSLA) in the $1 trillion TaaS industry
because it believes the company is fundamentally strong. The brokerage firm believes that
the electric vehicle maker can emerge as a multi-product firm due to its revenue streams. For
the next ten years, the brokerage firm expects the company to sustain more than 50% year-
over-year growth.
•  Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS) analyst, Adam Jonas, expects the company to commercialize an
app-based mobility service before the end of the year 2018. The brokerage firm believes that
the opportunity will be an addition to the existing model of selling human-driven cars. The
analyst expects a big potential in the driverless car for Tesla.

Automotive Manufacturers
While it is assumed that all OEMs are working on some form
of self driving or autonomous driving vehicles, these are the
most visible players.
Electric vehicle start up: In July of this year,
Faraday Future (FF), a new electric car company,
created headlines when it announced plans to challenge
Tesla with a new electric vehicle claiming a launch in
2017.

Self-Driving vs. Driverless
There are numerous automakers working on self-driving
cars, but self-driving and driverless are very different
concepts, though sometimes both are referred to as
autonomous cars.
Self Driving Driverless (No Controls for humans)

Go to Market Approaches
Traditional OEM business models typically make new
technology, including driverless features, available in
luxury lines first before introducing it in stages to the
volume lines in order to maximize revenue and pay for
R&D faster.
32
It is largely believed that most OEMs are focused on
rolling out self driving cars, while Google and Tesla are
focused on fully autonomous cars.
Notable exceptions are Audi, Volvo, BMW, and
Nissan, that report focusing on fully autonomous
vehicles as well.
OEMs and tech companies are evolving via separate
paths. OEMs are encumbered by R& D models that hinder
their ability to evolve as fast as tech companies.

OEM Progress
33
TESLA IS TESTING ITS AUTOPILOT SYSTEM
using current Model S owners. Tesla's Autopilot
isn't the only autonomous or semi-autonomous
system out there now.
INFINITI OFFERS a series of driver
aids that allow the car to stay inside
a lane as well as brake & accelerate
according to surrounding traffic.
AUDI, BMW, NISSAN, VOLVO
all have fully autonomous technology in
development that can function without
input from the driver.
EARLIER THIS YEAR, A
CONVOY OF AUDI RS7s drove
autonomously on public roads
from San Francisco to Las
Vegas.
IN 2017, VOLVO REPORTS THEY
WILL HAVE 100 CUSTOMERS try
out its production autonomous cars on
city streets in traffic.

Google’s Advantage?
Google is betting that they can use
technology to bypass the city & highway
infrastructure hurdles required by some
self-driving vehicle approaches.
Unlike OEMs, they are not encumbered
by model roadmap interruptions and lost
revenue from bypassing the new feature
trickle down approach, they are
developing for the end state of fully
autonomous driverless cars and appear to
have a sizable lead.

Key Suppliers & Vendors
QNX
QNX Car Platform is a commercial Unix-like real-time operating system. Its hub-and-spoke architecture allows for many
applications to run simultaneously, securely, and stably.
DELPHI
Delphi has been working on more affordable ways of reducing the complexity of advanced safety systems. For example, it is
working on a multi-domain controller designed to do the same work as multiple electronic control units. This will reduce the
complexity of the system, cost and weight.
CISCO SYSTEMS
It wants to play a role in producing the security software and router hardware that would be used to deliver connected and
autonomous car services. And it’s teaming with Continental to do so.
COVISINT
Covisint’s core technology is helping people and systems to communicate and collaborate securely over the Internet and is
very much in demand today as a way for driverless cars to securely communicate with external factors such as traffic lights
and emergency vehicles.
VERIZON
Verizon released a connected car system in August with an OBD-II dongle that will provide services like real-time diagnostics
data, GPS tracking, and roadside assistance. The system, called Hum, will require a two-year subscription that costs $15 per
month, and will compete with other connected car systems based on OBD-II dongles like Automatic and Dash.

CONTINENTAL
It announced early in 2013 that automated
driving would be at the core of its long-term
business strategy. Its goal is to make fully
autonomous driving a reality by 2025. One of
its first projects is connecting cars via wireless
networks—a pathway toward better real-time
traffic and navigation, more passenger
entertainment features, safety-hazard
warnings, and eventually driverless cars.
The German company has already formed
alliances with Cisco, IBM, and others to work
on V2X communication systems, which many
experts view as key in the development of
autonomous vehicles.

MOBILEYE
Offers monitoring technology that uses a single camera and a "system-on-chip" to warn cars of imminent dangers (a
pedestrian collision, lane departure, or forward collision) as well as headway monitoring, intelligent high-beam lights, traffic-
sign recognition, adaptive cruise control, and speed limit indications.
NVIDIA
Nvidia wants to make a car’s computing components upgradeable. The same way you start with top-of-the-line computing
components via periodic upgrades, you can boost the brainpower of your connected car.
AUTOTALKS
Recently, it produced the world’s first automotive-grade chipset ready for series-production. The technology analyzes data
transmitted by the on-board processing units of nearby vehicles in order to warn drivers of any imminent danger and
communicate with transportation infrastructure.
COHDA WIRELESS
Cohda's chips enhance wireless communications to quality levels beyond commercial off-the-shelf IEEE 802.11p
transceivers, allowing cars to more effectively see through obstacles or around corners.

38
Shared Mobility

A Case for Shared Mobility
For about half as much, $4,680, or
39 cents per mile, Shared Mobility
can provide door-to-door service
for those same 12,000 miles while
you relax in the back. And if you'll
rideshare it's only $ 2,280 a year.
39
per year
$9,100
Americans spend an average of
$9,100 per year (76 cents per mile,
based on 12,000 miles per year) to
own and maintain a personal
automobile. That doesn't include the
average cost of over $ 2,000 a year if
you need downtown parking.
Cars sit idle 96% of
the time.
96% per year
$4,680

40
76%
76.3% of all US
commuters drive alone.
Of those who drove to
work, nearly 94% drove
alone.
94%

41
Source : Morgan Stanley

Ford’s Shift to Mobility Thinking
•  New mobility, car sharing, ride sharing- what does that mean for us? “We are thinking through that," said Mark Fields,
Ford's chief executive, at a recent investor conference. "We are thinking like a car and truck company, but we are also
thinking like a mobility company.”
•  “As more megacities emerge around the globe, vehicle-sharing might not be just a choice. It could be a virtual
requirement,” says Ford executive Jim Holland, VP vehicle component and systems engineering.
•  Ford is preparing to conduct peer-to-peer car-sharing trials, administered through Ford Credit, in which owners could rent
vehicles for short-term trips, similar to business models run by Zipcar and operating or in the works at rival automakers.

Toyota Tests Shared Mobility
•  One vision of Toyota's future is playing out in Grenoble,
France, where residents can rent from a fleet of 70 pod-like
Toyota i-Road and Coms electric cars for short city trips. The i-
Roads have three wheels and two seats. The Coms have four
wheels but fit just one passenger.
•  "It is a sharing program like what you see in Portland with
bicycles,” Toyota North America CEO James Lentz said.
•  Drivers can check out and return the cars at various charging
points. Through a subscription, they pay the equivalent of
$3.75 for 30 minutes. Because the vehicles are so small, its
easy to build out their parking and charging infrastructure, the
automaker said.
•  In the U.S., Toyota is offering a membership service to buyers
of its small Scion branded cars. Some buyers in Phoenix,
Miami and Northern California are part of a pilot program that
allows them to borrow a Toyota truck, van or hybrid for 10
days in their first year of ownership.

UTILITY
PERFORMANCE STYLE PRICE
CONVENIENCE &
PERSONALIZATION
44
What really matters
to consumers?

What Matters to Consumers

Consumer Attitudinal Changes
46
Source: KPMG

How do passionate drivers feel about AVs?
47
Source: KPMG

Consumer Outlook & Feeling

Consumer Outlook
•  33% of all adults said they would never consider buying or leasing a fully autonomous vehicle, according to
a Harris Poll that defined the self-driving car as "a car, truck, or SUV capable of navigating without or with
limited human input."
•  Not surprisingly, older generations reported a much higher aversion to buying/leasing a fully autonomous
car than younger generations.
•  22% of Millennials (ages 18-37), 36% of both Generation X (ages 38-49) and Baby Boomers (ages 50-68),
and 50% of Matures (ages 69+) said they would never buy/lease a fully autonomous vehicle.
•  22% of respondents said that when the "bugs" have been worked out, they would consider buying a fully
autonomous car.
•  Millennials are more concerned about the price of the fully autonomous car than consumers in other age
brackets. 23% of Millennials said they would purchase a self-driving car when the price drops.
49
Source: Harris Poll Interactive 2015

50
Timelines & Phases

Stefan Moser, Audi
Head of Product and
Technology
Communications, said
the upcoming A8 “ will
be a fully
autonomous, self-
driving vehicle”. Due
in 2017, the A8 will be
Audi’s autonomous
motoring pioneer.
“We plan to have
driverless cars on the
market no later than
2018. In 2013 we plan
to expand the number
of Google employees
using cars. Thereafter
it will not take longer
than 5 years to get the
cars into the market.”
Sergey Brin, Google
Co-Founder, Oct-12
“Driverless cars are
coming to showrooms
by 2020; ready for
show time by the end
of this decade.”
- Carlos Ghosn,
Nissan CEO, Jan-13
Five or six years from
now we will be able to
achieve true autonomous
driving where you could
literally get in the car, go
to sleep and wake up at
your destination. It will
then take another 2 to 3
years for regulatory
approval. “ [2023] `Elon
Musk, Tesla CEO, Oct-14
“For Jaguar and Land
Rover it will happen
within the next 10
years. We will provide
fully autonomous cars
by 2024.” Dr.
Wolfgang Epple, JLR
Dir of Research &
Tech, Oct-14
“Fully autonomous
vehicles which can
drive without human
intervention and might
not even have a
steering wheel could
be available on the
market by 2025.”
Dieter Zetsche,
Daimler Chairman,
Jan-14
Timelines
51
2017 2018 2020 2023 2024 2025

The Rollout Phases
Source: Morgan Stanley

From Morgan Stanley lead auto analyst, Adam Jonas (accompanies previous slide):
The two most important technological trends in automotive transportation are the sharing economy and autonomous driving.
Those trends will fuse into what he calls “shared autonomy” or what is essentially a world of competing robotic taxi services.
Jonas has boiled down the massive change the automotive world faces into a chart with four quadrants, or phases of disruption. The horizontal axis
illustrates the transition from individual vehicle ownership to an era where cars are shared assets. The vertical axis shows the transition from human to
robotic driving.
The first quadrant represents the auto industry model for more than 100 years, Jonas said. High-tech is limited to gadgets for driver convenience or
entertainment.
The next quadrant shows how people are starting to use Uber and other services to slowly relinquish their ownership and control of the car. This is an
era during which taxis (including so-called car-sharing services like Uber) could become “so cheap that only rich people own cars.”
This allows for hundreds of new entrants into the fleet management business, Jonas said. The biggest impact will be felt in dense mega-cities that can
support these services.
Quadrant three depicts how people will give up control of the automobile to a computer, using steering wheels and pedals less over time.
During this phase, most cars are still owned by individuals, but the rising competition from mega-fleet managers operating human-driven vehicles with
automated driving features gains momentum, Jonas said. At the same time, society will benefit from improvements in vehicle safety and efficiency.
Finally, quadrant four depicts the "shared autonomy."
Jonas envisions “roving fleets of completely autonomous vehicles in operation 24 hours a day, available on your smartphone.”
An individual’s transportation cost per mile falls to as low as 25 cents a mile, or roughly 1/10th that of a traditional taxi, Jonas said. These automated taxi
systems get launched in the megacities of developed countries, spread to the close suburbs and then become connected to other cities in a hub-and-
spoke network of autonomous highways, Jonas said.
54
Morgan Stanley Outlook

Estimated Self Driving Vehicle Unit Volumes
•  Business Insider estimates show that 104,000 cars with self-driving capabilities will be shipped this year (2015).
•  BI estimates that by 2020, shipments will grow to 5.49 million, rising by a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of
89%. These estimates include cars and trucks shipped to both enterprises and consumers.
•  The installed base of cars with self-driving features will grow even faster, from 140,000 this year to just under 10
million in 2020, up by a CAGR of 134%.

56
Impact

Potential Impact
When we do reach the driverless car phase, the economic outlook for entire industries
will undergo a massive shift with the survival of key industries being at extreme risk.
These include:
57
For the sake of this compilation, I’m focusing primarily on the
eﬀects on automotive and technology players.
•  Oil industry
•  Big insurers
•  Automotive manufacturers (OEMs)
•  Automotive suppliers
•  Franchise dealerships
•  Automotive technology & digital marketing firms & other retail solution suppliers

Potential Impact OEMs & Dealerships
•  A Barclays report released in May predicts that in
a society dominated by self-driving cars, U.S. auto
sales might fall 40% and vehicle ownership could
drop 50%, forcing entrenched automakers such as
Ford Motor Co. and General Motors to adapt or die.
•  The auto industry will likely see a collapse of new car
sales. Cheap used cars will flood the market. Since
each mobility service vehicle can replace about five
personal vehicles, far fewer cars will be sold and
even fewer maintained*.
•  Industry profits rely heavily on revenue from options,
aftermarket parts, maintenance, and service. Yet,
maintenance on electric vehicles is notoriously low,
choking off this source of revenue*.
•  Automakers that survive will shift most of their
business to create transit companies, or to selling
their vehicles to those who do*.
58
*Source: Bridges, Rutt (2015-05-10). Driverless Car Revolution: Buy Mobility, Not Metal

Potential Impact Technology & Retail Partners
Technology, marketing and consumer
research & buying portals will need to adjust
their products and services to a smaller pool
of dealers and new customer base offering
a different approach to transportation and
mobility.
Nimble forward-thinking companies, tech
start-ups and mobility-focused companies
and suppliers will pour in to fill market gaps.

Potential Impact General Transportation
•  In the shorter term, look for
companies such as Enterprise
Rent-A-Car and Uber to
compete with car dealers, taxi
companies and even
automakers. Dealers, now the
intermediaries between
manufacturers and drivers,
may find their business model
squeezed*.
•  "Selling us trips will be
where the profits are — not
making cars,” Geoff Wardle,
executive director, Graduate
Transportation Systems and
Design at Art Center College of
Design in Pasadena.
60

Potential Impact General Transportation
UBER IS CLEARLY INTERESTED in
replacing its drivers with self-driving
vehicles. This transition will make its
services so inexpensive and ubiquitous
as to make car ownership obsolete.
61
THE FIRST BIG IMPACT THAT ROBOTICS
has on the workforce will likely be in
transportation, where self-driving cars could
put millions of drivers out of work in less than
a decade. BI Intelligence predicts that self-
driving car shipments will increase rapidly
after 2018. Companies that employ large
numbers of drivers, like Uber, are likely to be
early adopters, possibly putting their drivers
out of work. Source: Business Insider.
A STUDY FROM UC-BERKELEY
shows that once users try car-sharing
services, they are half as likely to own a
car.
PRICEWATERHOUSECOOPERS
estimates, “autonomous vehicles would
reduce the number of vehicles on the road
by 99 percent, and the fleet of cars in the
U.S. would fall from 245 million to 2.4
million

Potential Winners & Losers
62
WINNERS LOSERS

Challenges &
Barriers to Adoption

Open Issues & Challenges
Consumer trust & awareness of
benefits of mobility over vehicle
ownership.
64
Expected lobbying to slow the
use of adoption by groups like
ride share service drivers,
factory workers and dealership
owners who are likely to be
severely impacted.
Self Driving Technology ability
to operate in environments with
conditions not yet technically
possible--snow, sleet, icy roads,
blowing sand, and other
conditions making it difficult to
read the roadway.
Proven dependability &
longevity of autonomous
vehicles and related self-
driving technology.
3 421

Barriers to Adoption
REGULATIONS ARE THE BIGGEST BARRIER TO SELF-DRIVING CAR ADOPTION AND A GRAY
AREA IN MOST COUNTRIES RIGHT NOW.
•  For either semi or fully autonomous self-driving vehicles to become widely available, regulations will
need to be put in place that address what types of self- driving capabilities are allowed on the road and
who is responsible if the vehicles crash.
COST IS THE SECOND MAJOR BARRIER TO SELF-DRIVING CAR ADOPTION.
•  There will likely be an added cost for buyers when purchasing a self-driving car with either semi-
autonomous or fully autonomous features.
•  Business Insider expects electric vehicle customers to pay for self-driving features first because these
individuals are often tech-savvy and high-income. Next, they expect luxury vehicle owners to opt for
self-driving car features in new cars. Finally, when the prices of the features drop further, they will likely
be purchased by economy class vehicle customers. Presumably those most interested in safety will opt
for these features first.
CONSUMER RELUCTANCE IS ANOTHER BARRIER TO ADOPTION, although this barrier will certainly
lessen dramatically over time as consumers acquire more information about autonomous vehicles, their
benefits and features.
65
Source : Business Insider

Statistics

96% 75% 70% 94%
Statistics
Cars sit idle 96%
of the time.
Google thinks self-
driving taxis could have
utilizations of 75%+.
Stanford estimates we’ll
need 70% fewer cars to
provide the same trips.
94% of accidents are from
human error, & these could
be eliminated.
A study by the Eno Centre for Transportation, a non-proﬁt group, estimates that if
90% of cars on American roads were autonomous, the number of accidents would
fall from 5.5m a year to 1.3m, and road deaths from 32,400 to 11,300.

90% 30%
Statistics
A study by the University of Texas estimates
that 90% penetration of self-driving cars in
America would be equivalent to a doubling of
road capacity and would cut delays by 60%
on motorways and 15% on suburban roads.
With cars in constant use, much less parking space would be
needed. Parking accounts for as much as 24% of the area of
American cities, and some urban areas have as many as 3.5
parking spaces per car; even so, people looking for parking
account for 30% of miles driven in urban business districts.
By liberating space wasted on parking, autonomous vehicles could allow more people to
live in city centers; but they would also make it easier for workers to live farther out. If
you can sleep on the journey, a longer commute becomes feasible, notes Mr. Fagnant,
who foresees a “simultaneous densiﬁcation of cities, and expansion of the exurbs.

References &
Resources

References - Click for link
• Driverless Car Revolution. Buy Mobility, Not Metal: Book by Rutt Bridges
• Driverless Cars: Trillions are up for Grabs: Book by Chunka Mui’
• Google Self Drive Car website:
• Google Monthly AV reports:
• Changing Nature of Mobility Report: Deloitte Review 2014

• IF AUTONOMOUS VEHICLES RULE THE WORLD From horseless to
driverless Article Economist 2015
• Driverless Cars: Consumer Perception of Future Autonomous Mobility NADA
2015
• The Self Driving Car Report: Business Insider 2015 Report
• Preparing a Nation for Autonomous Vehicles: Eno 2013 Report

• Connected Vehicles Enter Mainstream: Report by Deloitte 2012
• Self Driving Cars: Are we ready?: Report by KPMG 2013
• Urban Mobility Blueprint: Report by E&Y 2013
• Transforming Personal Mobility: Report by Columbia University 2013
• Uber’s Plan for Self-Driving Cars Bigger Than Its Taxi Disruption Article:
GOVETECH.com 2015
• Uber wins, GM loses when driverless cars rule the road: Article- Fortune 2014

Acknowledgements
KEY RESOURCE & CREDIT
While I have compiled content from many sources and provided references and
links to much of it, the majority of this content was sourced from a recent book
published by Rutt Bridges titled:
DRIVERLESS CAR REVOLUTION: Buy Mobility, Not Metal 2015.
I found his citations and presentation of the information to be very balanced and
credible.
CONTRIBUTION
Editing was provided by Eliza Kelly, who has been my co-author and all star
research project manager on a number of primary research projects over the years.
She can be reached at www.linkedin.com/in/elizakelly

Self Driving Cars V11

Recommended

Recommended

More Related Content

What's hot

What's hot (20)

Viewers also liked

Viewers also liked (20)

Similar to Self Driving Cars V11

Similar to Self Driving Cars V11 (20)

Self Driving Cars V11