This PowerPoint helps students to consider the concept of infinity.
North Carolina's Climate. R. Boyles
1. Ryan Boyles
State Climatologist
North Carolina State University
ryan_boyles@ncsu.edu
Extreme Weather Preparedness at the Regional Level
Greensboro, NC
June 11, 2013
Climate Change -
What it means for North Carolina
2. About the State Climate Office
• Public Service Center at NCSU
• Statewide public resource for weather
and climate information and services
– Extension of research to community
applications
– Research on NC weather and climate
– Outreach
– Education
Extreme Weather Preparedness - Greensboro, NC - June 13, 2013 2
3. Definitions
• Global warming describes an average
temperature increase of the Earth over time
• Climate change describes how weather
patterns will be affected around the globe
– Changes in climate averages or in extremes of
temperature and precipitation
– Location specific
Extreme Weather Preparedness - Greensboro, NC - June 13, 2013 3
17. What does it mean for NC?
• NC is sensitive to weather
– Lots of Hazards
– Enormous exposure in agriculture,
natural resources, tourism
Extreme Weather Preparedness - Greensboro, NC - June 13, 2013 18
18. • Changes in Precip
• NCA precip fig
Extreme Weather Preparedness - Greensboro, NC - June 13, 2013 19
19. Future Winters in NC
• Probably more warm days in winter
• Probably fewer very colds days
• Probably fewer days with snow at
lower elevations
Extreme Weather Preparedness - Greensboro, NC - June 13, 2013 20
21. Future Springs Seasons
• More warm days
• Possibly more intense thunderstorms
– We don’t think they will get weaker
• Perhaps more tornadoes, hail
– Much less certain
Extreme Weather Preparedness - Greensboro, NC - June 13, 2013 22
22. Future Summers in NC
• Likely more hot days, warm nights
• Perhaps fewer days with rain
– More days with intense rain
• Perhaps more drought?
Extreme Weather Preparedness - Greensboro, NC - June 13, 2013 23
24. Ag Impacts
• Heat, moisture stress
– Timing, frequency of rain is critical
– Increase need for irrigation
• When it rains, it pours
– Ponding in fields
– More soil preparation
• Pest impacts
– Lower fungal risks?
Extreme Weather Preparedness - Greensboro, NC - June 13, 2013 25
25. Future Autumns in NC
• More intense hurricanes
– Decrease in frequency
Extreme Weather Preparedness - Greensboro, NC - June 13, 2013 26
26. Future Coastline of NC
• Sea level rise
– Sea will continue to rise
• likely to speed up
– Depends on ice loss at poles, thermal
expansion
Extreme Weather Preparedness - Greensboro, NC - June 13, 2013 27
27. So what?
• North Carolina is vulnerable
– Action to deal with today’s hazards will
help with future risk
• If we’ve seen it in the past, we’ll see it
in the future
– And maybe worse with global warming
Extreme Weather Preparedness - Greensboro, NC - June 13, 2013 28
28. What do we do about it?
• NC is vulnerable to climate hazards
• Climate science informs society
– Society manages risk, not science
– Actions come from societal discussion
• We make these choices
Environmental Protection Agency, RTP, NC - June 14, 2012 29
30. Environmental Protection Agency, RTP, NC - June 14, 2012 31
Needs: Data
• All science develops with good data
collection
– Need for better environmental, climate
monitoring
• Data quality is critical
– MUST be useful for decision makers
31. Needs: Research
• Models need to be calibrated to
regional climate patterns
– Requires focus on state-level dynamics
• Statistical and dynamic downscaling
have limitations
– A new hybrid approach needed?
Environmental Protection Agency, RTP, NC - June 14, 2012 32
32. Environmental Protection Agency, RTP, NC - June 14, 2012 33
Need: Applications
• Climate science, data must get used
– Not just by scientists
• Need extension of science, data
– To state, local agencies
– To businesses
– To all sectors sensitive to weather
• Decision support tools
– Driven by data, designed for end users
– Calibrated climate forecasts for guidance
33. Environmental Protection Agency, RTP, NC - June 14, 2012 34
Need: Education
• Lots of climate awareness, very little
climate education
• End users don’t know what models,
data are appropriate to use
• Climate education program needed
– Sector policy makers, K-12
– No state agency leading
• Can University system do this?
34. Environmental Protection Agency, RTP, NC - June 14, 2012 35
Need: Collaboration
• Scientists, users need to work more
closely
– Among various user sectors
– Among various scientific arenas
• Service connections
– Climate scientists
– Extension specialists
– Field specialists
