1. 09 SEP – 14 SEP 2013
W E E K L Y
R
E
P
O
R
T
Blow by Blow
On
Bullions,
Base metals,
Energy…
WWW.TRIFIDRESEARCH.COM
2. MAJOR EVENTS
Gold prices edged down in the global market after positive data releases from around
the globe and the United States raised the concerns that US Central Bank may start
tapering its 'Commodity Friendly' monetary stimulus later this year. Comex gold fell to
its lowest in more than one week on Friday. Gold futures for December delivery on
Globex platform of Comex was seen trading down by 0.24% at $1369.7 per troy ounce
as of 10.20 IST on Friday. Gold futures for October delivery on India's Multi
Commodity Exchange was seen trading down by 0.12% at Rs.32180 per 10 grams as of
10.15 IST on Friday. Earlier this week, gold recorded an up-tick on concerns that the
United States may take military action against Syrian forces in response to the alleged
chemical weapons attack on Syrians.
The US Institute of Supply Management (ISM) non-manufacturing index (NMI) rose to
58.6% in August 2.6 percent higher when compared to the 56 percent registered in
July, as per the data released by ISM on Thursday. This indicates continued growth at
a faster rate in the non-manufacturing sector. This month's NMI is the highest reading
for the index since its inception in January 2008.
US crude oil prices in the global market edged up on Friday amid a decline in US
crude oil stock-piles and promising data releases from around the United States.
The trend in crude oil futures for September delivery on India's Multi Commodity
Exchange (MCX) looks bearish for the day and intra-day traders are advised to stay on
sell side. US commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic
Petroleum Reserve) decreased by 1.8 mn barrels from the previous week (August 30).
At 360.2 mn barrels, US crude oil inventories are near the upper limit of the average
range for this time of year, according to the data released by the US Energy
Information Administration (EIA) on Thursday. In the United States, the total non-
farm payroll employment increased by 169,000 in August, and the unemployment
rate was little changed at 7.3 percent, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics reported on
Friday. Employment rose in retail trade and health care but declined in information.
Both the number of unemployed persons, at 11.3 million, and the unemployment
rate, at 7.3 percent, changed little in August. The jobless rate is down from 8.1
percent a year ago.
US Crude Oil rises
amid decline in
stock-piles; MCX
Crude Oil bearish.
US Copper rises
amid promising
data, India
Copper futures
bearish.
Copper prices rose amid promising data releases from European countries and the
United States on Friday. The base metal was seen trading positive and is expected
trade positive in the remaining session of the day. Copper prices for December
delivery on Globex platform of Comex was seen trading up by 0.92% at $3.27 per
pound as of 18.04 IST on Friday.
In the United States, the total non-farm payroll employment increased by 169,000 in
August, and the unemployment rate was little changed at 7.3 percent, the US Bureau
of Labor Statistics reported on Friday. Employment rose in retail trade and health care
but declined in information. Both the number of unemployed persons, at 11.3 million,
and the unemployment rate, at 7.3 percent, changed little in August. The jobless rate
is down from 8.1 percent a year ago.
Nonfarm business sector labor productivity increased at a 2.3 percent annual rate
during the second quarter of 2013, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics reported on
Thursday. The increase in productivity reflects an increase of 3.7 percent in output and
1.4 percent in hours worked.
Gold touches
one week low on
US monetary
stimulus
concerns.
3. E C O N O M I C C A L E N D E R
DATE & TIME DESCRIPTION FORECAST PREVIOUS
Sep 10, 12:30am Consumer Credit m/m 12.7B 13.8B
5:00pm NFIB Small Business Index 94.8 94.1
7:30pm JOLTS Job Openings 3.96M 3.94M
Sep 11, 7:30pm Wholesale Inventories m/m 0.3% -0.2%
8:00pm Crude Oil Inventories -1.8M
10:30pm 10-y Bond Auction 2.62/2.5
Sep 12, 6:00pm Unemployment Claims 332K 323K
6:00pm Import Prices m/m 0.6% 0.2%
8:00pm
Natural Gas Storage 58B
10:30pm
30-y Bond Auction 3.65/2.1
11:30pm
Federal Budget Balance -155.3B -97.6B
Sep 13, 6:00pm Core Retail Sales m/m 0.3% 0.5%
6:00pm PPI m/m 0.2% 0.0%
6:00pm Retail Sales m/m 0.5% 0.2%
6:00pm Core PPI m/m 0.2% 0.1%
7:25pm Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment 82.6 82.1
7:25pm Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations 3.0%
7:30pm Business Inventories m/m 0.4% 0.0%
4. S1 S2 S3 R1 R2 R3
30980 29950 28740 32850 33870 35075
S1 S2 S3 R1 R2 R3
53110 50975 48365 56700 59250 61300
T E C H N I C A L V I E W
MCX GOLD on its daily charts found
important support of trend line and
closed below 23.6% retracement. Now,
immediate support is seen near to its
38.2% retracement i.e. 31150, sustains
below which it may find next support
around psychological level of 30000.
On higher side 32850 is seen as
resistance for it above which it may
lead towards next resistance level of
34500.
S T R A T E G Y
Better strategy in MCX GOLD is to sell
below 31500 for the target of 30700
with stop loss of 32600.
PIVOT TABLE
G O L D
PIVOT TABLE
S I L V E R
T E C H N I C A L V I E W
MCX SILVER last week showed bullish
movement, but unable to break its
previous week high took resistance
around upper band of channel on
weekly chart. Now, support is seen
around 53100 below which it is in weak
zone and may find next support around
50000. On other hand if it able to
sustain on higher level then it may find
resistance of 58300.
S T R A T E G Y
Better strategy in MCX SILVER at this
point of time is to sell below 53100 for
target of 51000, with stop loss of 55650.
5. C R U D E O I L
C O P P E R
S1 S2 S3 R1 R2 R3
6995 6800 6635 7270 7520 7700
S1 S2 S3 R1 R2 R3
467.70 451.90 437.50 487.50 502.50 515
T E C H N I C A L V I E W
MCX Copper on daily charts broke
trendline and closed below it. If it able
to sustain below this trend line then
some correction is expected in it
below 467.50 towards next support
level of 451. On higher side 487.50 is
seen as resistance for it closing above
it shows strength in it towards next
resistance level of 505 above which it
may test all time highs.
S T R A T E G Y
Better strategy in MCX CRUDEOIL is to sell
below 6990 for the targets of 6810 with
stop loss of 7275.
PIVOT TABLE
T E C H N I C A L V I E W
Crude oil last week showed choppy
movements found support around 50%
retracement and trend line on daily
charts. Now, it is trades around
trendline immediate support is seen
around 7075 below which it may find
support near to its 50% retracement
and psychological level of 7000. On
upper level 7400 is act as resistance for
it.
S T R A T E G Y
Better strategy in MCX COPPER is to sell
below 467, with stop loss of 488 for the
targets of 452.
PIVOT TABLE
