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Missouri Pork Producers – Feb 2014

Meat/Poultry Economic Update &
Outlook
Steve R. Meyer, Ph.D.
Paragon Economics, Inc.
Paragon Economics, Inc.
From information, knowledge
October‟s government shutdown – Impact?





No disruptions of animal or product flows –
Inspectors were deemed “essential”
No apparent “gouging” but a few price
shenanigans
- Most markets remained stable
- Packers did not pressure prices – MUCH
- Margins were tight by the end – lower prices



Big backlog of data – as much detail as we
will see is now available
Paragon Economics, Inc.

6/20/2013

2

From information, knowledge
Demonstrated the importance of USDA data



Many relied on Urner Barry‟s Yellow Sheet
- Poultry and eggs have always used YS prices
- Good coverage for beef and pork as well




CattleFax probably signed up a lot of new
members – fed cattle markets were okay
Hogs and Feeder Cattle were the voids
- NPPC‟s effort for voluntary hog price
reporting by packers
» Good but too late
» Antitrust challenges
Paragon Economics, Inc.

6/20/2013

3

From information, knowledge
Now what?




Another shutdown avoided – for now
CME Group has to have a better plan
- Dodged a potential bullet with Oct LH close
- Feeder cattle is cash settled, too - - MUCH
trickier due to dispersion of data
- Need “auditable” data if from a private source




Buyers & sellers should be investigating
alternatives just in case
NPPC hog system is functional – what legal
criteria must be met?
Paragon Economics, Inc.

6/20/2013

4

From information, knowledge
Smithfield and Tyson announcements



Smithfield announced that it is “asking” its
contract growers to adopt group sow
housing by 2022
- “You don‟t have to but contract extensions are
less likely” = “change or else”
- “Sliding scale” incentives to adopt faster
- NOT A SURPRISE
» Company-owned farms began switching in ‟07
» 54% now in group systems
» Productivity has been maintained
Paragon Economics, Inc.

6/20/2013

5

From information, knowledge
Tyson announcement is MUCH bigger deal



Because it‟s TYSON
- #2 packer (77k/day), #12 producer (52k sows)
- Successor to IBP which never backed down
from a fight over priniciple
- Historically a staunch defender of producers



Sow housing PLUS key items required for
contract growers, “recommended” for all
- Stop using blunt force euthanization
- Pain mitigation for castration, tail docking
- Video monitoring in all barns

Paragon Economics, Inc.

6/20/2013

6

From information, knowledge
Key Factors for 2014



Costs

Paragon Economics, Inc.
6/20/2013

7

From information, knowledge
„14 production costs – down ~$15/cwt carc.
. . . ~$30/hd. better profits w/o price change!

Paragon Economics, Inc.
6/20/2013

8

From information, knowledge
USDA Jan WASDE – LOWER corn yield, crop . . .
. . . Record crop, higher F/R, steady ethanol
U.S. CORN SUPPLY AND UTILIZATION -- FEBRUARY
Units
Acres Planted
Acres Harvested
Yield
Beginning Stocks
Production
Imports
Total Supply
Feed & Residual
Ethanol for fuel
Non-Ethanol FSI
Exports
Total Usage
Carryover
Stocks/Use
Nat. Wtd. Avg. Farm Price

Mil A
Mil A
Bu/A
Mil Bu.
Mil Bu.
Mil Bu.
Mil Bu.
Mil Bu.
Mil Bu.
Mil Bu.
Mil Bu.
Mil Bu.
Mil Bu.
Pct.
$/Bu.

2011/12
91.9
84.0
147.2
1128
12360
29
13517
4557
5000
1428
1543
12528
989
7.9%
6.22

2012/13
97.2
87.4
123.4
989
10780
162
11932
4335
4648
1396
731
11111
821
7.4%
6.89

USDA
January
95.4
87.7
158.8
821
13925
35
14781
5300
5000
1400
1450
13150
1631
12.4%
4.10 - 4.70

2013/14
USDA
% Chng
February
vs '12-13
95.4
-1.9%
87.7
0.3%
158.8
28.7%
821 -17.0%
13925
29.2%
35 -78.4%
14781
23.9%
5300
22.3%
5000
7.6%
1400
0.3%
1600 118.9%
13300
19.7%
1481
80.4%
11.1%
50.7%
4.20 - 4.80
-36.1%

Source: USDA World Supply and Demand Estimates

Paragon Economics, Inc.
From information, knowledge
Better yields and record highs in the east

Paragon Economics, Inc.
6/20/2013

10

From information, knowledge
Big increases for all corn uses – exc ethanol
. . . Feed ingredient supply back near pre‟08

Paragon Economics, Inc.
6/20/2013

11

From information, knowledge
RFS is clearly not realistic due to gas usage
. . . 13 bil. gal. of corn ethanol

X

Paragon Economics, Inc.
From information, knowledge
Note the prod & cons trend change in „04 . . .
. . . But not much change in stocks level

Paragon Economics, Inc.
6/20/2013

13

From information, knowledge
World stocks are higher but S/U still tight . . .
. . . Due to persistently larger usage levels!

Paragon Economics, Inc.
6/20/2013

14

From information, knowledge
U.S. biofuels policy fueled growth . . .
. . . and new, ongoing corn competition

Paragon Economics, Inc.
6/20/2013

15

From information, knowledge
Have we seen the bottom for corn?
. . . Likely, especially with Feb WASDE changes

Paragon Economics, Inc.
From information, knowledge
Corn is cheap versus about everything!

Paragon Economics, Inc.
From information, knowledge
World soybean situation is quite different . . .
. . . Record high output, consumption, stocks





World output +6.2% in „13-‟14
Consumption +4.4%
Ending stocks +20%, S/U tied for 3rd high
Paragon Economics, Inc.
From information, knowledge
But SB prices are still near $13 . . .
. . . Primarily due to China‟s appetite & means

Paragon Economics, Inc.
From information, knowledge
Jan WASDE: Larger SB yield, crop . . .
. . . Steady – and TIGHT – stocks, higher meal
U.S. SOYBEAN SUPPLY & UTILIZATION - FEBRUARY
Units
Acres Planted
Mil A
Acres Harvested
Mil A
Yield
Bu/A
Beginning Stocks
Mil Bu.
Production
Mil Bu.
Imports
Mil Bu.
Total Supply
Mil Bu.
Crushings
Mil Bu.
Exports
Mil Bu.
Seed
Mil Bu.
Residual
Mil Bu.
Total Usage
Mil Bu.
Carryover
Mil Bu.
Stocks/Use
Pct.
Nat. Wtd. Avg. Farm Price $/Bu.
Soybean Oil Price
Cents/lb.
Soybean Meal Price
$/ton

2011/12
75.0
73.8
41.9
215
3094
16
3325
1703
1365
90
-2
3155
169
5.4%
12.50
51.90
393.53

2012/13
77.2
76.2
39.8
169.0
3034.0
36.0
3239.0
1689.0
1320.0
89.0
1.0
3099.0
141.0
4.5%
14.40
47.13
468.11

USDA
January
76.5
75.9
43.3
141
3289
25
3454
1700
1495
87
22
3304
150
4.5%
11.75 - 13.25
35.50 - 39.50
375 - 415

2013/14
USDA
% Chng
February
vs '12-13
76.5
-0.9%
75.9
-0.4%
43.3
8.8%
141
-16.6%
3289
8.4%
30
-16.7%
3459
6.8%
1700
0.7%
1510
14.4%
87
-2.2%
12 1100.0%
3309
6.8%
150
6.4%
4.5%
0%
11.95 - 13.45
-15.3%
34.50 - 37.50
-23.6%
425 - 465
-4.9%

Source: USDA World Supply and Demand Estimates

Paragon Economics, Inc.
From information, knowledge
And MEAL has carried the value!
Mar SBM
Futures

Mar SB
Oil
Futures
Paragon Economics, Inc.
From information, knowledge
Are “high” costs behind us?







Depends on your definition of “high”
“Normal” 2014 crops will give us corn at
$3.50 and beans at $9.00 – maybe less
for both
Reason: Yields (and acres) have finally
caught up with ethanol usage
$90-plus hog costs will be rare – only
when we have a severe drought
Key issue: Veg oil prices
Paragon Economics, Inc.

6/20/2013

22

From information, knowledge
Key Factors for 2014




Costs
Demand

Paragon Economics, Inc.
6/20/2013

23

From information, knowledge
The macro-economy – Improving



Good things:
- GDP growth, improving housing market, low
interest rates, job growth (+175k Sept, +200k
Oct, +203k Nov but only +74k in Dec)
- Wealth effect has been positive – Record
equity values prior to recent “correction”



Question marks:
- U fell to 6.7% in Dec – due to -347k “seekers”
- U-6 is 13.1% -- improving but still high
- Personal disposable income – better, but ????
Paragon Economics, Inc.

6/20/2013

24

From information, knowledge
2013 RPDI growth averaged 0.1%/month . . .
. . . And December was abysmal at -3.4%, yr/yr

Paragon Economics, Inc.
6/20/2013

25

From information, knowledge
Per cap consumption is flat thru „14 . . .
. . . Chicken, pork will grow, beef will decline

Paragon Economics, Inc.
6/20/2013

26

From information, knowledge
Retail prices are at or near record highs . . .
. . . Would not be if demand was, in fact, soft

Paragon Economics, Inc.
6/20/2013

27

From information, knowledge
Meat/Poultry demand has been good in‟13

Paragon Economics, Inc.
6/20/2013

28

From information, knowledge
Beef, chicken & pork are up, turkey lower

Paragon Economics, Inc.
6/20/2013

29

From information, knowledge
Pork exports: BIG 2013 issue & remain soft . .
. . . USDA (and I) expect some growth in „14 (?)

Paragon Economics, Inc.
6/20/2013

30

From information, knowledge
Decexports – +33.3% for Mexico, +17% Others
YTD: Canada -1.6%, Mexico +9%, Others +12%

Paragon Economics, Inc.
6/20/2013

31

From information, knowledge
Key Factors for 2014





Costs
Demand
Competitors

Paragon Economics, Inc.
6/20/2013

32

From information, knowledge
Chicken is now in a full growth mode



Industry started positioning for growth
last winter – delayed by backfilling Mexico
AI losses

Paragon Economics, Inc.
6/20/2013

33

From information, knowledge
Breeder flock grew modestly thru July . . .
. . . Up 4.6% to 4.8%, yr/yr, Aug-Nov; +3.3% Dec

Paragon Economics, Inc.
6/20/2013

34

From information, knowledge
Chicken is now in a full growth mode








Industry started positioning for growth
last winter – delayed by backfilling Mexico
AI losses
Profitable at present and going forward –
but can‟t stand prosperity
Egg sets have been +2-3%, placements
up only fractionally vs. ‟13 since Jan1
I expect 3-5% more broiler supply in 2014
Chicken will be very competitively priced
Paragon Economics, Inc.

6/20/2013

35

From information, knowledge
Beef – Now in full expansion mode, too



Range/pasture conditions are good
enough to support cow herd expansion

Paragon Economics, Inc.
6/20/2013

36

From information, knowledge
Replacement cow prices are record high . . .
. . . and even higher???

Paragon Economics, Inc.
6/20/2013

37

From information, knowledge
Cow-calf operations should get best of it!

Paragon Economics, Inc.
6/20/2013

38

From information, knowledge
Feedlot breakevens are still VERY high . . .
. . . Due to record-high calf, feeder prices

Paragon Economics, Inc.
6/20/2013

39

From information, knowledge
Beef – Now in full expansion mode, too





Range/pasture conditions are good
enough to support cow herd expansion
Heifer retention is tightening an alreadytight feeder and fed cattle supply

Paragon Economics, Inc.
6/20/2013

40

From information, knowledge
Jan Cattle report: Slow expansion . . .
JANUARY 1, 2014 -- U S CATTLE INVENTORY
Pre-Report Estimates*
Pct of Yr
Average
Ago

2013

2014

All Cattle & Calves

89,300

87,730

98.2

98.6

98.0 - 99.1

Cows & Heifers That Have Calved
Beef Cows
Dairy Cows

38,515
29,297
9,218

38,251
29,042
9,209

99.3
99.1
99.9

98.9
98.5
99.9

98.7 - 99.3
98.3 - 99.1
99.8 - 100.0

Heifers 500 Pounds & Over
Beef Cow Replacements
Dairy Cow Replacements
Other Heifers

19,134
5,381
4,551
9,203

18,751
5,471
4,539
8,741

98.0
101.7
99.7
95.0

99.0
103.1
100.3
95.9

97.9 - 99.6
102.4 - 103.5
98.9 - 101.1
93.2 - 97.1

Steers 500 Pounds & Over

15,813

15,415

97.5

98.4

97.3 - 99.6

2,056

2,035

99.0

99.0

98.4 - 99.7

Heifers, Steers & Bulls Under 500 Pounds

13,782

13,278

96.3

97.9

97.0 - 99.1

January 1 Cattle On Feed, All Feedlots

13,364

12,695

95.0

95.0

99.0

97.9

Bulls 500 Pounds & Over

Rev 2012
2013
34,279 33,930

Calf Crop

Range

97.7 - 98.1

Source: USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service, Urner Barry

Paragon Economics, Inc.
6/20/2013

41

From information, knowledge
Beef – Now in full expansion mode, too






Range/pasture conditions are good
enough to support cow herd expansion
Heifer retention is tightening an alreadytight feeder and fed cattle supply
Per capita beef availability in 2014 will be
down 3-5% -- RECORD HIGH prices again

Paragon Economics, Inc.
6/20/2013

42

From information, knowledge
RECORD-HIGH cutout values – in JANUARY!






Weekly averages hit $238 and $236 the
week of January 24
Value is being carried by END meats
Tighter supplies are still to come!
Paragon Economics, Inc.

6/20/2013

43

From information, knowledge
Beef – Now in full expansion mode, too








Range/pasture conditions are good
enough to support cow herd expansion
Heifer retention is tightening an alreadytight feeder and fed cattle supply
Per capita beef availability in 2014 will be
down 3-5% -- RECORD HIGH prices again
LONG reaction period – I don‟t expect
more beef, yr/yr, until 2016
AN OPPORTUNITY FOR PORK & CHICKEN!
Paragon Economics, Inc.

6/20/2013

44

From information, knowledge
Key Factors for 2014






Costs
Demand
Competitors
Hog Numbers

Paragon Economics, Inc.
6/20/2013

45

From information, knowledge
Imports from Canada are -11% for 2013 . . .
. . . FP -11.7%, MH -14%, S&B -1.1%

Paragon Economics, Inc.
6/20/2013

46

From information, knowledge
Sow slaughter was -6.5% yr/yr Q3 & Q4 . . .
. . . And was down 2.9% for the year

Paragon Economics, Inc.
6/20/2013

47

From information, knowledge
And gilt slaughter has been below average

Paragon Economics, Inc.
6/20/2013

48

From information, knowledge
Dec Hogs and Pigs – BH was a surprise . . .
. . . Other numbers were not – picked up PEDv?
USDA QUARTERLY HOGS & PIGS REPORT
December 27, 2013
Category

2012

2013

'13 as
PreActual Pct of Report
Est
'12
Est's

Inventories on December 1
All hogs and pigs
66,374
65,940
99.3
99.9
-0.6
Kept for breeding
5,819
5,757
98.9
101.0
-2.1
Kept for marketing
60,555
60,183
99.4
99.8
-0.4
Under 50 lbs.
19,299
19,049
98.7
99.7
-1.0
50-119 lbs.
16,752
16,669
99.5
99.7
-0.2
120-179 lbs.
12,634
12,626
99.9
99.9
0.0
180 lbs. and over
11,871
11,838
99.7
100.1
-0.4
Farrowings
Sep-Nov sows farrowed
2,888
2,882
99.8
100.4
-0.6
Dec-Feb Intentions
2,788
2,825 101.3 100.9
0.4
Mar-May Intentions
2,816
2,855 101.4 101.2
0.2
Sep-Nov Pig Crop
29,319
29,298
99.9
101.2
-1.3
Sep-Nov pigs saved per litter
10.15
10.16 100.1 100.8
-0.7
*Thousand head ** Thousand Litters
Source: WSJ (formerly DowJones)

Paragon Economics, Inc.
6/20/2013

49

From information, knowledge
Sep-Nov litter size does show PEDv signs. . .
. . . Closest to year-ago level since Q3 2003!

Paragon Economics, Inc.
6/20/2013

50

From information, knowledge
What about PEDv? -- 1/26 was a new record . .
. . . Big jump in IL, IN went from 9 to 25 in 1 wk.!

Paragon Economics, Inc.
6/20/2013

51

From information, knowledge
PEDv – Must remember timing










First case was April 15 – in spite of
conspiracy/neglect/incompetency theories
Sow/boar and suckling pig cases began to
grow sharply in June – DECEMBER slghtr
Rules of thumb: 2.3, 2.5, 2.7 pigs/sow
Anecdotal figure at present ~ 1.7M sows
and growing
1.9M x 2.5 = 4.75M pigs lost in 8 months
7.1M in 12 months = ~6% of „14 pig crop
Paragon Economics, Inc.

6/20/2013

52

From information, knowledge
Is Oklahoma a harbinger for other states?

Paragon Economics, Inc.
6/20/2013

53

From information, knowledge
Immediate impact: RECORD HIGH pig prices

Paragon Economics, Inc.
6/20/2013

54

From information, knowledge
Sept H&P: Growth in Q4, sizable growth in „14
. . . But from 9/1: -4.4% vs. „12, -3.0% vs. pred?

Paragon Economics, Inc.
6/20/2013

55

From information, knowledge
Hogs & Pigs indicates tight supplies Q1-Q2
. . . Higher numbers in Q3-Q4 – farrowings?

Paragon Economics, Inc.
6/20/2013

56

From information, knowledge
Making up for some losses with weights . . .
+2.7% since shutdown, nearly +3% in „14 . . .

Paragon Economics, Inc.
6/20/2013

57

From information, knowledge
Cutout has improved but hogs are lagging . . .
. . . “Near last year” may become a refrain




Expect MUCH higher prices in March-April
Summer highs at $105-$110
Paragon Economics, Inc.

6/20/2013

58

From information, knowledge
„14 forecast profits are now best since „87. . .
. . . For those who have avoided PEDv -- All?

Paragon Economics, Inc.
6/20/2013

59

From information, knowledge
Slaughter forecasts per Dec Hogs & Pigs
December 2013 Hogs & Pigs -- Commercial Slaughter Forecasts
Mizzou
Mil. Hd

2013 Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Year
2014 Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Year

% Chnge

27.874

-1.1%

29.730

0.8%

112.050

-1.0%

27.580

Paragon

0.4%

27.668

LMIC

-0.8%

26.778

ISU
Mil. Hd

% Chnge

Mil. Hd

% Chnge

Mil. Hd

% Chnge

-1.1%

27.428

-1.6%

27.829

-0.2%

27.800

-0.3%

26.479

-1.1%

26.494

-1.1%

26.579

-0.7%

26.355

-1.6%

27.685

0.1%

27.923

0.9%

27.990

1.2%

27.088

-2.1%

30.027

1.0%

30.476

2.5%

30.496

2.6%

29.320

-1.4%

111.744

-0.3%

112.321

0.2%

112.894

0.8%

110.563

-1.3%

Green figures are actual data from USDA.
.

Blue figures are estimated using USDA data

1/13/14

Paragon Economics, Inc.
6/20/2013

60

From information, knowledge
Price forecasts per Dec Hogs & Pigs
December 2013 Hogs & Pigs -- Price Forecasts
Mizzou
Producer-Sold
Net Price, All
Methods
2013 Q1
83.53
Q2
91.80
Q3
97.90
Q4
84.99
Year
89.56
2014 Q1
84 - 88
Q2
94 - 98
Q3
92 - 96
Q4
77 - 81
Year
86 - 90
Green figures are actual data from USDA.

ISU
Ia-Mn Wtd.
Avg. Base
Lean Hog
80.83
88.06
94.34
82.57
86.45
85 - 90
95 - 100
91 - 96
80 - 85
88 - 93

LMIC

Paragon
National Net
National Wtd
Neg'd Price,
Avg. Base Price
Wtd. Avg.
81.08
82.73
89.32
90.83
95.25
98.00
82.98
85.26
87.16
89.21
85 - 87
83 - 86
91 - 95
95 - 99
92 - 97
96 - 100
81 - 87
82 - 86
87 - 92
89 - 93

Blue figures are estimated using USDA data

**CME Lean Hog Index

CME
CME Lean Hog
Futures
83.34**
90.66**
98.98**
83.93**
89.23**
86.28
100.88
104.10
85.86
94.28
2/10/14

Paragon Economics, Inc.
6/20/2013

61

From information, knowledge
Key Factors for 2014







Costs
Demand
Competitors
Hog Numbers
Strategic Issue for Pork -- Capacity

Paragon Economics, Inc.
6/20/2013

62

From information, knowledge
I‟m still concerned about packing capacity
. . . 2014 is okay – 2015 and beyond????

Paragon Economics, Inc.
6/20/2013

63

From information, knowledge
Closing thoughts . . .








Lower feed costs will drive
expansion, especially for pork and chicken
Demand is good, macro conditions are
improving – positive prefs for meat?
Beef supplies will be tight thru 2015 – high
prices and opportunities for competitors
Chicken will be MUCH more competitive
Hog supplies will be lower due to PEDv --profitable but less price advantage
Paragon Economics, Inc.

6/20/2013

64

From information, knowledge
Questions or Comments?

Paragon Economics, Inc.
6/20/2013

65

From information, knowledge

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Dr. Steve Meyer - Meat/Poultry Economic Update & Outlook

  • 1. Missouri Pork Producers – Feb 2014 Meat/Poultry Economic Update & Outlook Steve R. Meyer, Ph.D. Paragon Economics, Inc. Paragon Economics, Inc. From information, knowledge
  • 2. October‟s government shutdown – Impact?   No disruptions of animal or product flows – Inspectors were deemed “essential” No apparent “gouging” but a few price shenanigans - Most markets remained stable - Packers did not pressure prices – MUCH - Margins were tight by the end – lower prices  Big backlog of data – as much detail as we will see is now available Paragon Economics, Inc. 6/20/2013 2 From information, knowledge
  • 3. Demonstrated the importance of USDA data  Many relied on Urner Barry‟s Yellow Sheet - Poultry and eggs have always used YS prices - Good coverage for beef and pork as well   CattleFax probably signed up a lot of new members – fed cattle markets were okay Hogs and Feeder Cattle were the voids - NPPC‟s effort for voluntary hog price reporting by packers » Good but too late » Antitrust challenges Paragon Economics, Inc. 6/20/2013 3 From information, knowledge
  • 4. Now what?   Another shutdown avoided – for now CME Group has to have a better plan - Dodged a potential bullet with Oct LH close - Feeder cattle is cash settled, too - - MUCH trickier due to dispersion of data - Need “auditable” data if from a private source   Buyers & sellers should be investigating alternatives just in case NPPC hog system is functional – what legal criteria must be met? Paragon Economics, Inc. 6/20/2013 4 From information, knowledge
  • 5. Smithfield and Tyson announcements  Smithfield announced that it is “asking” its contract growers to adopt group sow housing by 2022 - “You don‟t have to but contract extensions are less likely” = “change or else” - “Sliding scale” incentives to adopt faster - NOT A SURPRISE » Company-owned farms began switching in ‟07 » 54% now in group systems » Productivity has been maintained Paragon Economics, Inc. 6/20/2013 5 From information, knowledge
  • 6. Tyson announcement is MUCH bigger deal  Because it‟s TYSON - #2 packer (77k/day), #12 producer (52k sows) - Successor to IBP which never backed down from a fight over priniciple - Historically a staunch defender of producers  Sow housing PLUS key items required for contract growers, “recommended” for all - Stop using blunt force euthanization - Pain mitigation for castration, tail docking - Video monitoring in all barns Paragon Economics, Inc. 6/20/2013 6 From information, knowledge
  • 7. Key Factors for 2014  Costs Paragon Economics, Inc. 6/20/2013 7 From information, knowledge
  • 8. „14 production costs – down ~$15/cwt carc. . . . ~$30/hd. better profits w/o price change! Paragon Economics, Inc. 6/20/2013 8 From information, knowledge
  • 9. USDA Jan WASDE – LOWER corn yield, crop . . . . . . Record crop, higher F/R, steady ethanol U.S. CORN SUPPLY AND UTILIZATION -- FEBRUARY Units Acres Planted Acres Harvested Yield Beginning Stocks Production Imports Total Supply Feed & Residual Ethanol for fuel Non-Ethanol FSI Exports Total Usage Carryover Stocks/Use Nat. Wtd. Avg. Farm Price Mil A Mil A Bu/A Mil Bu. Mil Bu. Mil Bu. Mil Bu. Mil Bu. Mil Bu. Mil Bu. Mil Bu. Mil Bu. Mil Bu. Pct. $/Bu. 2011/12 91.9 84.0 147.2 1128 12360 29 13517 4557 5000 1428 1543 12528 989 7.9% 6.22 2012/13 97.2 87.4 123.4 989 10780 162 11932 4335 4648 1396 731 11111 821 7.4% 6.89 USDA January 95.4 87.7 158.8 821 13925 35 14781 5300 5000 1400 1450 13150 1631 12.4% 4.10 - 4.70 2013/14 USDA % Chng February vs '12-13 95.4 -1.9% 87.7 0.3% 158.8 28.7% 821 -17.0% 13925 29.2% 35 -78.4% 14781 23.9% 5300 22.3% 5000 7.6% 1400 0.3% 1600 118.9% 13300 19.7% 1481 80.4% 11.1% 50.7% 4.20 - 4.80 -36.1% Source: USDA World Supply and Demand Estimates Paragon Economics, Inc. From information, knowledge
  • 10. Better yields and record highs in the east Paragon Economics, Inc. 6/20/2013 10 From information, knowledge
  • 11. Big increases for all corn uses – exc ethanol . . . Feed ingredient supply back near pre‟08 Paragon Economics, Inc. 6/20/2013 11 From information, knowledge
  • 12. RFS is clearly not realistic due to gas usage . . . 13 bil. gal. of corn ethanol X Paragon Economics, Inc. From information, knowledge
  • 13. Note the prod & cons trend change in „04 . . . . . . But not much change in stocks level Paragon Economics, Inc. 6/20/2013 13 From information, knowledge
  • 14. World stocks are higher but S/U still tight . . . . . . Due to persistently larger usage levels! Paragon Economics, Inc. 6/20/2013 14 From information, knowledge
  • 15. U.S. biofuels policy fueled growth . . . . . . and new, ongoing corn competition Paragon Economics, Inc. 6/20/2013 15 From information, knowledge
  • 16. Have we seen the bottom for corn? . . . Likely, especially with Feb WASDE changes Paragon Economics, Inc. From information, knowledge
  • 17. Corn is cheap versus about everything! Paragon Economics, Inc. From information, knowledge
  • 18. World soybean situation is quite different . . . . . . Record high output, consumption, stocks    World output +6.2% in „13-‟14 Consumption +4.4% Ending stocks +20%, S/U tied for 3rd high Paragon Economics, Inc. From information, knowledge
  • 19. But SB prices are still near $13 . . . . . . Primarily due to China‟s appetite & means Paragon Economics, Inc. From information, knowledge
  • 20. Jan WASDE: Larger SB yield, crop . . . . . . Steady – and TIGHT – stocks, higher meal U.S. SOYBEAN SUPPLY & UTILIZATION - FEBRUARY Units Acres Planted Mil A Acres Harvested Mil A Yield Bu/A Beginning Stocks Mil Bu. Production Mil Bu. Imports Mil Bu. Total Supply Mil Bu. Crushings Mil Bu. Exports Mil Bu. Seed Mil Bu. Residual Mil Bu. Total Usage Mil Bu. Carryover Mil Bu. Stocks/Use Pct. Nat. Wtd. Avg. Farm Price $/Bu. Soybean Oil Price Cents/lb. Soybean Meal Price $/ton 2011/12 75.0 73.8 41.9 215 3094 16 3325 1703 1365 90 -2 3155 169 5.4% 12.50 51.90 393.53 2012/13 77.2 76.2 39.8 169.0 3034.0 36.0 3239.0 1689.0 1320.0 89.0 1.0 3099.0 141.0 4.5% 14.40 47.13 468.11 USDA January 76.5 75.9 43.3 141 3289 25 3454 1700 1495 87 22 3304 150 4.5% 11.75 - 13.25 35.50 - 39.50 375 - 415 2013/14 USDA % Chng February vs '12-13 76.5 -0.9% 75.9 -0.4% 43.3 8.8% 141 -16.6% 3289 8.4% 30 -16.7% 3459 6.8% 1700 0.7% 1510 14.4% 87 -2.2% 12 1100.0% 3309 6.8% 150 6.4% 4.5% 0% 11.95 - 13.45 -15.3% 34.50 - 37.50 -23.6% 425 - 465 -4.9% Source: USDA World Supply and Demand Estimates Paragon Economics, Inc. From information, knowledge
  • 21. And MEAL has carried the value! Mar SBM Futures Mar SB Oil Futures Paragon Economics, Inc. From information, knowledge
  • 22. Are “high” costs behind us?      Depends on your definition of “high” “Normal” 2014 crops will give us corn at $3.50 and beans at $9.00 – maybe less for both Reason: Yields (and acres) have finally caught up with ethanol usage $90-plus hog costs will be rare – only when we have a severe drought Key issue: Veg oil prices Paragon Economics, Inc. 6/20/2013 22 From information, knowledge
  • 23. Key Factors for 2014   Costs Demand Paragon Economics, Inc. 6/20/2013 23 From information, knowledge
  • 24. The macro-economy – Improving  Good things: - GDP growth, improving housing market, low interest rates, job growth (+175k Sept, +200k Oct, +203k Nov but only +74k in Dec) - Wealth effect has been positive – Record equity values prior to recent “correction”  Question marks: - U fell to 6.7% in Dec – due to -347k “seekers” - U-6 is 13.1% -- improving but still high - Personal disposable income – better, but ???? Paragon Economics, Inc. 6/20/2013 24 From information, knowledge
  • 25. 2013 RPDI growth averaged 0.1%/month . . . . . . And December was abysmal at -3.4%, yr/yr Paragon Economics, Inc. 6/20/2013 25 From information, knowledge
  • 26. Per cap consumption is flat thru „14 . . . . . . Chicken, pork will grow, beef will decline Paragon Economics, Inc. 6/20/2013 26 From information, knowledge
  • 27. Retail prices are at or near record highs . . . . . . Would not be if demand was, in fact, soft Paragon Economics, Inc. 6/20/2013 27 From information, knowledge
  • 28. Meat/Poultry demand has been good in‟13 Paragon Economics, Inc. 6/20/2013 28 From information, knowledge
  • 29. Beef, chicken & pork are up, turkey lower Paragon Economics, Inc. 6/20/2013 29 From information, knowledge
  • 30. Pork exports: BIG 2013 issue & remain soft . . . . . USDA (and I) expect some growth in „14 (?) Paragon Economics, Inc. 6/20/2013 30 From information, knowledge
  • 31. Decexports – +33.3% for Mexico, +17% Others YTD: Canada -1.6%, Mexico +9%, Others +12% Paragon Economics, Inc. 6/20/2013 31 From information, knowledge
  • 32. Key Factors for 2014    Costs Demand Competitors Paragon Economics, Inc. 6/20/2013 32 From information, knowledge
  • 33. Chicken is now in a full growth mode  Industry started positioning for growth last winter – delayed by backfilling Mexico AI losses Paragon Economics, Inc. 6/20/2013 33 From information, knowledge
  • 34. Breeder flock grew modestly thru July . . . . . . Up 4.6% to 4.8%, yr/yr, Aug-Nov; +3.3% Dec Paragon Economics, Inc. 6/20/2013 34 From information, knowledge
  • 35. Chicken is now in a full growth mode      Industry started positioning for growth last winter – delayed by backfilling Mexico AI losses Profitable at present and going forward – but can‟t stand prosperity Egg sets have been +2-3%, placements up only fractionally vs. ‟13 since Jan1 I expect 3-5% more broiler supply in 2014 Chicken will be very competitively priced Paragon Economics, Inc. 6/20/2013 35 From information, knowledge
  • 36. Beef – Now in full expansion mode, too  Range/pasture conditions are good enough to support cow herd expansion Paragon Economics, Inc. 6/20/2013 36 From information, knowledge
  • 37. Replacement cow prices are record high . . . . . . and even higher??? Paragon Economics, Inc. 6/20/2013 37 From information, knowledge
  • 38. Cow-calf operations should get best of it! Paragon Economics, Inc. 6/20/2013 38 From information, knowledge
  • 39. Feedlot breakevens are still VERY high . . . . . . Due to record-high calf, feeder prices Paragon Economics, Inc. 6/20/2013 39 From information, knowledge
  • 40. Beef – Now in full expansion mode, too   Range/pasture conditions are good enough to support cow herd expansion Heifer retention is tightening an alreadytight feeder and fed cattle supply Paragon Economics, Inc. 6/20/2013 40 From information, knowledge
  • 41. Jan Cattle report: Slow expansion . . . JANUARY 1, 2014 -- U S CATTLE INVENTORY Pre-Report Estimates* Pct of Yr Average Ago 2013 2014 All Cattle & Calves 89,300 87,730 98.2 98.6 98.0 - 99.1 Cows & Heifers That Have Calved Beef Cows Dairy Cows 38,515 29,297 9,218 38,251 29,042 9,209 99.3 99.1 99.9 98.9 98.5 99.9 98.7 - 99.3 98.3 - 99.1 99.8 - 100.0 Heifers 500 Pounds & Over Beef Cow Replacements Dairy Cow Replacements Other Heifers 19,134 5,381 4,551 9,203 18,751 5,471 4,539 8,741 98.0 101.7 99.7 95.0 99.0 103.1 100.3 95.9 97.9 - 99.6 102.4 - 103.5 98.9 - 101.1 93.2 - 97.1 Steers 500 Pounds & Over 15,813 15,415 97.5 98.4 97.3 - 99.6 2,056 2,035 99.0 99.0 98.4 - 99.7 Heifers, Steers & Bulls Under 500 Pounds 13,782 13,278 96.3 97.9 97.0 - 99.1 January 1 Cattle On Feed, All Feedlots 13,364 12,695 95.0 95.0 99.0 97.9 Bulls 500 Pounds & Over Rev 2012 2013 34,279 33,930 Calf Crop Range 97.7 - 98.1 Source: USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service, Urner Barry Paragon Economics, Inc. 6/20/2013 41 From information, knowledge
  • 42. Beef – Now in full expansion mode, too    Range/pasture conditions are good enough to support cow herd expansion Heifer retention is tightening an alreadytight feeder and fed cattle supply Per capita beef availability in 2014 will be down 3-5% -- RECORD HIGH prices again Paragon Economics, Inc. 6/20/2013 42 From information, knowledge
  • 43. RECORD-HIGH cutout values – in JANUARY!    Weekly averages hit $238 and $236 the week of January 24 Value is being carried by END meats Tighter supplies are still to come! Paragon Economics, Inc. 6/20/2013 43 From information, knowledge
  • 44. Beef – Now in full expansion mode, too      Range/pasture conditions are good enough to support cow herd expansion Heifer retention is tightening an alreadytight feeder and fed cattle supply Per capita beef availability in 2014 will be down 3-5% -- RECORD HIGH prices again LONG reaction period – I don‟t expect more beef, yr/yr, until 2016 AN OPPORTUNITY FOR PORK & CHICKEN! Paragon Economics, Inc. 6/20/2013 44 From information, knowledge
  • 45. Key Factors for 2014     Costs Demand Competitors Hog Numbers Paragon Economics, Inc. 6/20/2013 45 From information, knowledge
  • 46. Imports from Canada are -11% for 2013 . . . . . . FP -11.7%, MH -14%, S&B -1.1% Paragon Economics, Inc. 6/20/2013 46 From information, knowledge
  • 47. Sow slaughter was -6.5% yr/yr Q3 & Q4 . . . . . . And was down 2.9% for the year Paragon Economics, Inc. 6/20/2013 47 From information, knowledge
  • 48. And gilt slaughter has been below average Paragon Economics, Inc. 6/20/2013 48 From information, knowledge
  • 49. Dec Hogs and Pigs – BH was a surprise . . . . . . Other numbers were not – picked up PEDv? USDA QUARTERLY HOGS & PIGS REPORT December 27, 2013 Category 2012 2013 '13 as PreActual Pct of Report Est '12 Est's Inventories on December 1 All hogs and pigs 66,374 65,940 99.3 99.9 -0.6 Kept for breeding 5,819 5,757 98.9 101.0 -2.1 Kept for marketing 60,555 60,183 99.4 99.8 -0.4 Under 50 lbs. 19,299 19,049 98.7 99.7 -1.0 50-119 lbs. 16,752 16,669 99.5 99.7 -0.2 120-179 lbs. 12,634 12,626 99.9 99.9 0.0 180 lbs. and over 11,871 11,838 99.7 100.1 -0.4 Farrowings Sep-Nov sows farrowed 2,888 2,882 99.8 100.4 -0.6 Dec-Feb Intentions 2,788 2,825 101.3 100.9 0.4 Mar-May Intentions 2,816 2,855 101.4 101.2 0.2 Sep-Nov Pig Crop 29,319 29,298 99.9 101.2 -1.3 Sep-Nov pigs saved per litter 10.15 10.16 100.1 100.8 -0.7 *Thousand head ** Thousand Litters Source: WSJ (formerly DowJones) Paragon Economics, Inc. 6/20/2013 49 From information, knowledge
  • 50. Sep-Nov litter size does show PEDv signs. . . . . . Closest to year-ago level since Q3 2003! Paragon Economics, Inc. 6/20/2013 50 From information, knowledge
  • 51. What about PEDv? -- 1/26 was a new record . . . . . Big jump in IL, IN went from 9 to 25 in 1 wk.! Paragon Economics, Inc. 6/20/2013 51 From information, knowledge
  • 52. PEDv – Must remember timing       First case was April 15 – in spite of conspiracy/neglect/incompetency theories Sow/boar and suckling pig cases began to grow sharply in June – DECEMBER slghtr Rules of thumb: 2.3, 2.5, 2.7 pigs/sow Anecdotal figure at present ~ 1.7M sows and growing 1.9M x 2.5 = 4.75M pigs lost in 8 months 7.1M in 12 months = ~6% of „14 pig crop Paragon Economics, Inc. 6/20/2013 52 From information, knowledge
  • 53. Is Oklahoma a harbinger for other states? Paragon Economics, Inc. 6/20/2013 53 From information, knowledge
  • 54. Immediate impact: RECORD HIGH pig prices Paragon Economics, Inc. 6/20/2013 54 From information, knowledge
  • 55. Sept H&P: Growth in Q4, sizable growth in „14 . . . But from 9/1: -4.4% vs. „12, -3.0% vs. pred? Paragon Economics, Inc. 6/20/2013 55 From information, knowledge
  • 56. Hogs & Pigs indicates tight supplies Q1-Q2 . . . Higher numbers in Q3-Q4 – farrowings? Paragon Economics, Inc. 6/20/2013 56 From information, knowledge
  • 57. Making up for some losses with weights . . . +2.7% since shutdown, nearly +3% in „14 . . . Paragon Economics, Inc. 6/20/2013 57 From information, knowledge
  • 58. Cutout has improved but hogs are lagging . . . . . . “Near last year” may become a refrain   Expect MUCH higher prices in March-April Summer highs at $105-$110 Paragon Economics, Inc. 6/20/2013 58 From information, knowledge
  • 59. „14 forecast profits are now best since „87. . . . . . For those who have avoided PEDv -- All? Paragon Economics, Inc. 6/20/2013 59 From information, knowledge
  • 60. Slaughter forecasts per Dec Hogs & Pigs December 2013 Hogs & Pigs -- Commercial Slaughter Forecasts Mizzou Mil. Hd 2013 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Year 2014 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Year % Chnge 27.874 -1.1% 29.730 0.8% 112.050 -1.0% 27.580 Paragon 0.4% 27.668 LMIC -0.8% 26.778 ISU Mil. Hd % Chnge Mil. Hd % Chnge Mil. Hd % Chnge -1.1% 27.428 -1.6% 27.829 -0.2% 27.800 -0.3% 26.479 -1.1% 26.494 -1.1% 26.579 -0.7% 26.355 -1.6% 27.685 0.1% 27.923 0.9% 27.990 1.2% 27.088 -2.1% 30.027 1.0% 30.476 2.5% 30.496 2.6% 29.320 -1.4% 111.744 -0.3% 112.321 0.2% 112.894 0.8% 110.563 -1.3% Green figures are actual data from USDA. . Blue figures are estimated using USDA data 1/13/14 Paragon Economics, Inc. 6/20/2013 60 From information, knowledge
  • 61. Price forecasts per Dec Hogs & Pigs December 2013 Hogs & Pigs -- Price Forecasts Mizzou Producer-Sold Net Price, All Methods 2013 Q1 83.53 Q2 91.80 Q3 97.90 Q4 84.99 Year 89.56 2014 Q1 84 - 88 Q2 94 - 98 Q3 92 - 96 Q4 77 - 81 Year 86 - 90 Green figures are actual data from USDA. ISU Ia-Mn Wtd. Avg. Base Lean Hog 80.83 88.06 94.34 82.57 86.45 85 - 90 95 - 100 91 - 96 80 - 85 88 - 93 LMIC Paragon National Net National Wtd Neg'd Price, Avg. Base Price Wtd. Avg. 81.08 82.73 89.32 90.83 95.25 98.00 82.98 85.26 87.16 89.21 85 - 87 83 - 86 91 - 95 95 - 99 92 - 97 96 - 100 81 - 87 82 - 86 87 - 92 89 - 93 Blue figures are estimated using USDA data **CME Lean Hog Index CME CME Lean Hog Futures 83.34** 90.66** 98.98** 83.93** 89.23** 86.28 100.88 104.10 85.86 94.28 2/10/14 Paragon Economics, Inc. 6/20/2013 61 From information, knowledge
  • 62. Key Factors for 2014      Costs Demand Competitors Hog Numbers Strategic Issue for Pork -- Capacity Paragon Economics, Inc. 6/20/2013 62 From information, knowledge
  • 63. I‟m still concerned about packing capacity . . . 2014 is okay – 2015 and beyond???? Paragon Economics, Inc. 6/20/2013 63 From information, knowledge
  • 64. Closing thoughts . . .      Lower feed costs will drive expansion, especially for pork and chicken Demand is good, macro conditions are improving – positive prefs for meat? Beef supplies will be tight thru 2015 – high prices and opportunities for competitors Chicken will be MUCH more competitive Hog supplies will be lower due to PEDv --profitable but less price advantage Paragon Economics, Inc. 6/20/2013 64 From information, knowledge
  • 65. Questions or Comments? Paragon Economics, Inc. 6/20/2013 65 From information, knowledge