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Iowa Pork Congress – January 2013



Pork Industry Economic Update



Steve R. Meyer, Ph.D.
Paragon Economics, Inc.

                             Paragon Economics, Inc.
                               From information, knowledge
Key drivers of pork producer profits -- 2013
   Input prices and production costs =>
    -   Will it rain?
    -   Where will it rain?
    -   When will it rain?
    -   How much will it rain?
    -   And will it be hot, hot, hot again this year?




                                     Paragon Economics, Inc.
                                       From information, knowledge
Key drivers of pork producer profits -- 2013
   Input prices and production costs
   How will pork and hog demand hold up?
    - U.S. economy and consumer spending
    - World economy – exports and exchange
      rates
    - Prices of competitor goods – especially beef




                                  Paragon Economics, Inc.
                                    From information, knowledge
Key drivers of pork producer profits -- 2013
   Input prices and production costs
   How will pork and hog demand hold up?
   Just how many hogs will we see and how
    big will they be?
    - December inventories suggest no reductions
    - How long will weights stay relatively low
    - What will happen with packer margins and
      capacity


                                Paragon Economics, Inc.
                                  From information, knowledge
Late April – concerned about N. Ia-S. Minn . . .
           . . . But subsoil moisture was short!




                               Paragon Economics, Inc.
                                 From information, knowledge
Minn improved while rest of U.S. worsened . .
  . . . 8/21: 77% drought, 44% severe or worse




                             Paragon Economics, Inc.
                               From information, knowledge
Now – most of ECB is in good shape . . .
 . . . IA and MO are better, west is still parched




                                Paragon Economics, Inc.
                                  From information, knowledge
Largest deviation from trend yield since „88
     . . . What is the new trend? – 157.5 for „13




                               Paragon Economics, Inc.
                                 From information, knowledge
Same for soybeans – down 10.2% vs. trend




                           Paragon Economics, Inc.
                             From information, knowledge
Meanwhile in Canada -- April 2012




                           Paragon Economics, Inc.
                             From information, knowledge
August – when things were worst in Cornbelt




                           Paragon Economics, Inc.
                             From information, knowledge
And December, the most recent available




                          Paragon Economics, Inc.
                            From information, knowledge
But Canadian yields were normal – or better




                            Paragon Economics, Inc.
                              From information, knowledge
Lowest Dec 1 corn stocks since 2004 . . .
  . . . And we will use 17% more corn this year




                              Paragon Economics, Inc.
                                From information, knowledge
Jan WASDE -- +300 mil. bu. for feed/resid . . .
     . . . Tightest ending stocks estimate yet
      U.S. CORN SUPPLY AND UTILIZATION - JANUARY
                                                     2011/12                 2012/13
                                        2010/11                                           % Chng vs
                                                    USDA Jan USDA Dec USDA Jan               '11-12
 Acres Planted                Mil A          88.2         91.9         96.9        97.2       5.8%
 Acres Harvested              Mil A          81.4           84         87.7        87.4       4.0%
 Yield                         Bu/A         152.8        147.2        122.3       123.4     -16.2%
 Beginning Stocks             Mil Bu.       1708         1128           988         989     -12.3%
 Production                   Mil Bu.      12447        12360        10725       10780      -12.8%
 Imports                      Mil Bu.          28           29          100         100    244.8%
 Total Supply                 Mil Bu.      14182        13516        11814       11869      -12.2%
 Feed & Residual              Mil Bu.       4795         4548         4150        4450        -2.2%
 Ethanol for fuel             Mil Bu.       5019         5011         4500        4500      -10.2%
 Non-Ethanol FSI              Mil Bu.       1407         1426         1367        1367        -4.1%
 Exports                      Mil Bu.       1834         1543         1150          950     -38.4%
 Total Usage                  Mil Bu.      13055        12527        11167       11267      -10.1%
 Carryover                    Mil Bu.       1128           989          647         602     -39.1%
 Stocks/Use                                 8.6%         7.9%         5.8%        5.3%      -32.3%
  Nat. Wtd. Avg. Farm Price   $/Bu.      5.18         6.22     6.80 - 8.00 6.80 - 8.00      19.0%

                                                                  Paragon Economics, Inc.
                                                                     From information, knowledge
All usage estimates are much lower vs „11. . .




                              Paragon Economics, Inc.
                                From information, knowledge
USDA finally agreed with me . . .
 . . . Animal numbers will not allow lower F/R




                             Paragon Economics, Inc.
                               From information, knowledge
Hogs are the ONLY species to cut weights!




                            Paragon Economics, Inc.
                              From information, knowledge
RFS is 13.2 bil. gal. in ‟12, 13.8 bil. in 2013 . . .
. . . 13.6 bil. gal. for „12-‟13 crop yr = 4.86 bil. bu.




                                    Paragon Economics, Inc.
                                      From information, knowledge
Question: How many RINs are out there?
 . . . ~2 to 2.5 bil. gallons – will they be used ?




                                Paragon Economics, Inc.
                                  From information, knowledge
Ethanol margins: Gross margin < FC . . .
   . . . Not covering VC – short-term shutdown
     Ethanol: $2.17/gal
     Corn: $6.50/bu
     Natural Gas: $3.29/mmBtu




                                Paragon Economics, Inc.
                                  From information, knowledge
Ethanol responded – down 9.7% in Q3 & Q4
   . . . 34.2M gal/day will use 4.47 bil. bu. in „13




                                 Paragon Economics, Inc.
                                   From information, knowledge
Cash corn – cheaper but far from cheap . . .
     . . . But a good „13 crop = prices <$5/bu.




                              Paragon Economics, Inc.
                                From information, knowledge
DDGS has finally come back into pig diets




                            Paragon Economics, Inc.
                              From information, knowledge
Where will corn go – upside is not unlimited




                            Paragon Economics, Inc.
                              From information, knowledge
Wheat is competitive – favors Canada . . .




                             Paragon Economics, Inc.
                               From information, knowledge
Jan Beans – higher yield but HIGHER crush . .
         . . . Steady exports reflects S/A crop
               U.S. SOYBEAN SUPPLY & UTILIZATION - JANUARY
                                                     2011/12                    2012/13
                                        2010/11                                              % Chng vs
                                                    USDA Jan    USDA Dec       USDA Jan        '11-12
   Acres Planted             Mil A           77.4        75.0            77.2           77.2        2.9%
   Acres Harvested           Mil A           76.6        73.8            75.7           76.1        3.1%
   Yield                      Bu/A           43.5        41.9            39.3           39.6       -5.5%
   Beginning Stocks          Mil Bu.         151        215.0            169             169     -21.4%
   Production                Mil Bu.        3329       3094.0           2971           3015        -2.6%
   Imports                   Mil Bu.           14        16.0              20             20      25.0%
   Total Supply              Mil Bu.        3495       3325.0           3160           3204        -3.6%
   Crushings                 Mil Bu.        1648       1703.0           1570           1605        -5.8%
   Exports                   Mil Bu.        1501       1362.0           1345           1345        -1.2%
   Seed                      Mil Bu.           87        90.0              89             89       -1.1%
   Residual                  Mil Bu.           43         1.0              26             30    2900.0%
   Total Usage               Mil Bu.        3280       3155.0           3031           3070        -2.7%
   Carryover                 Mil Bu.         215        169.0            130             135     -20.1%
   Stocks/Use                               6.6%        5.4%            4.3%           4.4%         -18%
   Nat. Wtd. Avg. Farm Price $/Bu.          11.30       12.50 13.55 - 15.55 13.50 - 15.00         14.0%
   Soybean Oil Price        Cents/lb.       53.20       51.90 49.00 - 53.00 49.00 - 53.00          -1.7%
   Soybean Meal Price         $/ton        345.52      393.53 440.00 - 470.00430.00 - 460.00      13.1%


                                                                        Paragon Economics, Inc.
                                                                           From information, knowledge
South American crop still looks good
   Argentina – some concerns
    - Early wetness and now dryer conditions, some
      are worried about shallow root systems
    - USDS lowered yield but the crop is still
      54MMT – 35% larger than last year
   Brazil – biggest concern is logistics
    - A record crop – larger than ours – of 82.5
      MMT, up 24% from ‗12
    - Record acres and yields on early harvest are
      above average
                                 Paragon Economics, Inc.
                                   From information, knowledge
Where will SBM go? - Depends now on S/A
 . . . Support at $396 should be no surprise!




                             Paragon Economics, Inc.
                               From information, knowledge
What will it take to recover? Situation 9/29




                             Paragon Economics, Inc.
                               From information, knowledge
Jan 12 situation is MUCH better . . .




                               Paragon Economics, Inc.
                                 From information, knowledge
Lower costs for 2013 but costs have risen. . .
        . . . By about $3/cwt in past 2 weeks




                             Paragon Economics, Inc.
                               From information, knowledge
Profit outlook has dimmed . . .
. . .futures-implied ‟13 profit was -$2, now -$7




                              Paragon Economics, Inc.
                                  From information, knowledge
Another view – bad but not as bad as „09-‟10




                             Paragon Economics, Inc.
                               From information, knowledge
Critical Issues
   Input prices and production costs
   Domestic demand
    - Consumer income and willingness to spend
    - Consumer preferences
    - Prices of competing goods
   Export demand
    - All of those same factors
    - Quantity also depends on exchange rate
      since it impacts prices in the importing
      country
                                 Paragon Economics, Inc.
                                   From information, knowledge
The U.S. economy muddles along . . .
              . . . Still slowed by uncertainty




                              Paragon Economics, Inc.
                                From information, knowledge
Real PDI change: Revised down, April on . . .
     . . . November was encouraging @ +1.8%




                            Paragon Economics, Inc.
                              From information, knowledge
November RPI: Up from Oct, still <100 . . .




                               Paragon Economics, Inc.
                                 From information, knowledge
RPCE was good in November – for everyone!
 4.4% higher beef per cap
    consumption, higher prices
   6% higher chicken prices!
   Pork RPCE driven by 4%
    increase in per cap cons.




                                 Paragon Economics, Inc.
                                   From information, knowledge
ALL indexes are now positive for 12 mos . . .
 . . . If it lasts, first time that‟s ever happened




                                Paragon Economics, Inc.
                                  From information, knowledge
Per cap cons <200# for first time since „90
                . . . But this is a SUPPLY issue




                              Paragon Economics, Inc.
                                From information, knowledge
Prices are increasing as supplies tighten . . .
. . New records for beef in Nov, chicken in Oct




                              Paragon Economics, Inc.
                                From information, knowledge
Broiler flock near smallest since 1996 . . .
 . . . But was +2% in Dec and is same as yr ago




                              Paragon Economics, Inc.
                                From information, knowledge
The Dec increase was unusual – expansion?




                          Paragon Economics, Inc.
                            From information, knowledge
Sets and placements: Very close to „11 levels
                            And were up 1.6% vs.
                            ‘12 in first week of ‘13




  And up 1.2% vs. ‘12
 during first week of ‘13


                                Paragon Economics, Inc.
                                  From information, knowledge
Weights were a big driver in spite of feed . . .
. . . And were up 2.4% at 4.35 the first wk of „13




                                Paragon Economics, Inc.
                                  From information, knowledge
Broiler cutout begins 2013 strong . . .
          . . . Will it be as stable as last year?




                                Paragon Economics, Inc.
                                  From information, knowledge
Chicken summary
   Companies appear to be moving back to
    expansion – profitable!
   Breeder flock grew in December – unusual –
    but is still small relative to history
   Egg sets, placements – close to 2011 levels
    and have started ‗13 higher
   Did not expect growth – and it will not be
    huge if it comes – lower U.S. per cap supply
   Record-high prices -- again
                               Paragon Economics, Inc.
                                 From information, knowledge
54% of pastures are poor/very poor. . .
      . . . West, Cornbelt, North Plains are BAD




                               Paragon Economics, Inc.
                                 From information, knowledge
Beef cow slaughter: -12.4% vs. ‟11 . . .
 . . . And still showed liquidation in December




                              Paragon Economics, Inc.
                                From information, knowledge
Smallest U.S. beef cow herd since 1946 . . .
   . . . And the smallest calf crop since 1949




                             Paragon Economics, Inc.
                               From information, knowledge
Tight supplies of cattle outside feedlots . . .
     . . . Down 1.7%, 2.7% and 3.3% last 3 years




                              Paragon Economics, Inc.
                                From information, knowledge
Nov placements were 5.6% LOWER than ‟11 . .
 . . . After -10, -11 ,-19 and -13% prior 4 months




                                Paragon Economics, Inc.
                                  From information, knowledge
Dec 1 COF was down 6% from 2011 . . .
      . . . There were 700k head fewer on feed




                             Paragon Economics, Inc.
                               From information, knowledge
No turn-around in sight for availability. . .
  . . . Per-cap down 2-3% in „12 and 3%+ in „13




                              Paragon Economics, Inc.
                                From information, knowledge
When will Choice cutout finally break $200. .




                             Paragon Economics, Inc.
                               From information, knowledge
Beef summary . ..
   Weights remain high – Zilmax & Optiflexx?
   Lower cattle numbers – partially offset by
    higher weights – but lower beef supplies
   Cow slaughter remains high relative to the
    herd – pasture conditions – Rain?
   Longer term: Tighter and tighter per cap
    supplies, higher prices – thru 2015?
   Will beef cease to be a habit for anyone
    below the middle class?
                              Paragon Economics, Inc.
                                From information, knowledge
World economic conditions August 2011 . . .
       . . . Improvement except in U.S. and EU




                             Paragon Economics, Inc.
                               From information, knowledge
November 2012 – EU Recession BUT
    . . . China, Brazil, U.S. growth improvement




                              Paragon Economics, Inc.
                                From information, knowledge
Pork exports are still up 5.6% YTD vs. 2011 . . .
                . . Oct was down 7.6% from „11




                               Paragon Economics, Inc.
                                 From information, knowledge
China/HK was 59% below yr. ago in Oct but . .
   . . . +2% YTD; Mexico is +15%, Canada +17%




                            Paragon Economics, Inc.
                              From information, knowledge
Canada‟s exports were record high in 2012 . .
   . . . Forecast by USDA-FAS to fall 4.4% in „13




                               Paragon Economics, Inc.
                                 From information, knowledge
Exchange rates




   Real is the big mover among competitors
   Peso and won have improved but are still
    weaker than one year ago
   Strong renmimbi but rapidly falling yen
                              Paragon Economics, Inc.
                                From information, knowledge
USDA: World slaughter +0.09% in 2013
  . . . NO big reductions – even in the EU????




                              Paragon Economics, Inc.
                                From information, knowledge
Demand summary
   U.S. demand indexes are now ALL positive
    for ‗12 – can they stay that way?
   U.S. exports are expected to set another
    record in ‘13; Exchange rates will be key
   Higher beef and chicken (??) prices will be
    positive for pork demand
   My biggest concern: Consumer income
    and expenditures
    - 77% of U.S. output is still sold at home!
                                  Paragon Economics, Inc.
                                    From information, knowledge
Critical Issues
   Input prices and production costs
   Demand—domestic and exports
   Hog Supplies




                              Paragon Economics, Inc.
                                From information, knowledge
Dec H&P report – more hogs than expected . .
          USDA QUARTERLY HOGS & PIGS REPORT
                              December 28, 2012
                                                     '12 as  Pre-
                                                                   Actual -
                                  2011     2012      Pct of Report
                                                                     Est
     Category                                          '11   Est's
     Inventories on Dec 1*
       All hogs and pigs         66,361 66,348       100.0      99.1      0.9
       Kept for breeding          5,803   5,817      100.2      99.3      0.9
       Kept for market           60,558 60,531       100.0      99.1      0.9
         Under 50 lbs.           19,524 19,448       99.6       98.4      1.2
         50-119 lbs.             16,643 16,643       100.0      99.0      1.0
         120-179 lbs.            12,473 12,479       100.0      99.6      0.4
         180 lbs. and over       11,918 11,961       100.4     100.5     -0.1
     Farrowings**
       Sep-Nov sows farrowed      2,929   2,900      99.0       97.9      1.1
        Dec-Feb Intentions        2,864   2,865      100.0      98.4      1.6
        Mar-May Intentions        2,982   2,925      98.1       98.8     -0.7
     Sep-Nov Pig Crop1*          29,365 29,443       100.3      99.0      1.3
     Sep-Nov Pigs Saved/ litter   10.02   10.15      101.3     100.8      0.5
     *Thousand head             **Thousand litters
                                                             Paragon Economics, Inc.
                                                               From information, knowledge
Canada‟s Jan 1 herd? -- likely down 1-2%




                            Paragon Economics, Inc.
                              From information, knowledge
The larger Dec sow herd was not a surprise. .
. . . Slaughter: Low enough to suggest growth




                             Paragon Economics, Inc.
                               From information, knowledge
Gilt slaughter percent suggest even more. . .
. . Lower than 5-yr avg all but 3 wks since Sept




                               Paragon Economics, Inc.
                                 From information, knowledge
Canada‟s herd reductions – same as in „11




                            Paragon Economics, Inc.
                              From information, knowledge
Litter size growth back to 1.3% in Q3. . .
     . . . Trend has slowed a bit but still strong




                                Paragon Economics, Inc.
                                  From information, knowledge
„13 slaughter will be slightly larger than ‟12 . .
            . . But the pattern will be different




                                Paragon Economics, Inc.
                                  From information, knowledge
Canada‟s slaughter JUST DOES NOT CHANGE!




                          Paragon Economics, Inc.
                            From information, knowledge
Imports from Canada: Stable since 2009 . . .
  . . . How will an MCOOL change impact this?




                             Paragon Economics, Inc.
                               From information, knowledge
Freezer inventories are high with . . .
       . . . All up 12.2% yr/y and pork up 14.4%




                              Paragon Economics, Inc.
                                From information, knowledge
Weights matched 5-yr avg in Q4 . . .
. . . still 2+ lbs. lower, likely stay there thru Q2




                                 Paragon Economics, Inc.
                                   From information, knowledge
YTD pork production was up 1.8% yr/yr . . .
      . . . And will be higher than „12 thru April




                                Paragon Economics, Inc.
                                  From information, knowledge
Cutout begins the year at yr-ago level . . .
. . . Normal seasonal would peak at $100-$104




                             Paragon Economics, Inc.
                               From information, knowledge
Will hog prices observe a “normal” pattern . . .
         . . . If so, summer highs just over $100




                               Paragon Economics, Inc.
                                 From information, knowledge
December slaughter forecasts
   December 2012 Hogs & Pigs -- Commercial Slaughter Forecasts
                             Mizzou                    ISU                    LMIC                     Paragon
                         Mil. Hd    % Chnge     Mil. Hd    % Chnge      Mil. Hd     % Chnge     Mil. Hd    % Chnge
    2011 Q1**           27.483       -0.5%
         Q2             26.110       0.1%
         Q3             27.379       1.6%
         Q4*            29.888       0.9%
         Year          110.862       0.5%
    2012 Q1             28.104       2.3%       28.104       2.3%       28.104       2.3%      28.104       2.3%
         Q2             26.659       2.1%       26.659       2.1%       26.659       2.1%      26.659       2.1%
         Q3*            27.963       2.1%       27.963       1.2%       27.963       2.1%      27.963       2.1%
         Q4**           30.400       1.7%       30.400       1.7%       30.400       1.7%      30.400       1.7%
         Year          113.126       2.0%      113.126       2.0%      113.126       2.0%      113.126      2.0%
    2013 Q1*            27.762       -1.2%      27.739      -1.3%       27.704      -1.4%      28.292       0.7%
         Q2             26.811       0.6%       26.899       0.9%       26.242      -1.6%      26.892       0.9%
         Q3**           28.437       1.7%       28.299       1.2%       27.869      -0.3%      28.298       1.2%
         Q4             30.349       -0.2%      30.613       0.7%       30.207      -0.6%       29.860      -1.8%
         Year          113.359       0.2%      113.549       0.4%      112.022      -1.0%      113.342      0.2%
  Green figures are actual data from USDA.      Blue figures are estimated using USDA data                  1/1/13
  *Quarter has one LESS slaughter day vs. year ago **Quarter has one MORE slaughter day vs. year ago


                                                                                  Paragon Economics, Inc.
                                                                                    From information, knowledge
Price forecasts
                       December 2012 Hogs & Pigs -- Price Forecasts
                           Mizzou            ISU           LMIC                             Paragon                 CME
                       Producer-Sold                                                       National Net
                                       Ia-Mn Wtd. Avg. National Wtd                                             CME Lean Hog
                        Net Price, All                                                     Neg'd Price,
                                       Base Lean Hog Avg. Base Price                                              Futures
                          Methods                                                           Wtd. Avg.
   2011 Q1                 80.54            78.92         79.74                               80.91                81.54**
        Q2                 92.36            89.37         89.53                               94.89                93.97**
        Q3                 95.59            92.31         92.25                               97.61                97.49**
        Q4                 87.39            85.94         85.17                               87.92                88.11**
        Year               88.97            86.64         86.67                               90.33                90.28**
   2012 Q1                 86.56            84.27         84.11                               86.11                86.44**
        Q2                 87.76            83.67         85.31                               86.67                86.64**
        Q3                 87.69            85.05         84.74                               84.97                86.64**
        Q4                 82.90           82 - 83        80.60                               81.61                82.13**
        Year               86.20           84 - 85        83.69                               84.84                85.46**
   2013 Q1                82 - 86          85 - 87       83 - 87                             84 - 88                85.38
        Q2                89 - 93          89 - 92       86 - 91                             88 - 92                93.32
        Q3                88 - 92          90 - 93       89 - 94                             90 - 94                94.79
        Q4                80 - 84          84 - 86       81 - 86                             83 - 87                84.60
        Year              85 - 89          87 - 89       85 - 90                             87 - 90                89.52
 Green figures are actual data from USDA.   Blue figures are estimated using USDA data   **CME Lean Hog Index      1/22/13

                                                                                         Paragon Economics, Inc.
                                                                                             From information, knowledge
My model says finances are weak . . .
. . . But lenders believe status is not this bad!




                               Paragon Economics, Inc.
                                 From information, knowledge
Why/how are producers holding on?
   Futures, esp. summer 2013 have offered
    near breakevens for the year -- survive
   Financial position is better than my ―cash‖
    model suggests – risk management since
    2008, lower costs than my model
   ―This is what I do‖ – no alternatives?
   Betting on rain – and the bets are HUGE
    - I don‘t see how many can survive a dry ‗13
    - ―Massive‖ liquidation may finally come to pass
                                 Paragon Economics, Inc.
                                   From information, knowledge
Long-term issues
   Costs, costs, costs = Prices, prices, prices
    - Consumer incomes and spending
    - How much less meat/poultry/dairy consumed?
   Animal welfare – Chronic challenges
    - Stalls – not logical, making some headway
    - Castration, tail docking,
    - Ultimately: Indoor production
   Risk management skills
   Policy – farm bill, antibiotics
                                  Paragon Economics, Inc.
                                      From information, knowledge
Questions or Comments?


              Paragon Economics, Inc.
                From information, knowledge

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Dr. Steve Meyer - Show Me the Money: Economic Outlook

  • 1. Iowa Pork Congress – January 2013 Pork Industry Economic Update Steve R. Meyer, Ph.D. Paragon Economics, Inc. Paragon Economics, Inc. From information, knowledge
  • 2. Key drivers of pork producer profits -- 2013  Input prices and production costs => - Will it rain? - Where will it rain? - When will it rain? - How much will it rain? - And will it be hot, hot, hot again this year? Paragon Economics, Inc. From information, knowledge
  • 3. Key drivers of pork producer profits -- 2013  Input prices and production costs  How will pork and hog demand hold up? - U.S. economy and consumer spending - World economy – exports and exchange rates - Prices of competitor goods – especially beef Paragon Economics, Inc. From information, knowledge
  • 4. Key drivers of pork producer profits -- 2013  Input prices and production costs  How will pork and hog demand hold up?  Just how many hogs will we see and how big will they be? - December inventories suggest no reductions - How long will weights stay relatively low - What will happen with packer margins and capacity Paragon Economics, Inc. From information, knowledge
  • 5. Late April – concerned about N. Ia-S. Minn . . . . . . But subsoil moisture was short! Paragon Economics, Inc. From information, knowledge
  • 6. Minn improved while rest of U.S. worsened . . . . . 8/21: 77% drought, 44% severe or worse Paragon Economics, Inc. From information, knowledge
  • 7. Now – most of ECB is in good shape . . . . . . IA and MO are better, west is still parched Paragon Economics, Inc. From information, knowledge
  • 8. Largest deviation from trend yield since „88 . . . What is the new trend? – 157.5 for „13 Paragon Economics, Inc. From information, knowledge
  • 9. Same for soybeans – down 10.2% vs. trend Paragon Economics, Inc. From information, knowledge
  • 10. Meanwhile in Canada -- April 2012 Paragon Economics, Inc. From information, knowledge
  • 11. August – when things were worst in Cornbelt Paragon Economics, Inc. From information, knowledge
  • 12. And December, the most recent available Paragon Economics, Inc. From information, knowledge
  • 13. But Canadian yields were normal – or better Paragon Economics, Inc. From information, knowledge
  • 14. Lowest Dec 1 corn stocks since 2004 . . . . . . And we will use 17% more corn this year Paragon Economics, Inc. From information, knowledge
  • 15. Jan WASDE -- +300 mil. bu. for feed/resid . . . . . . Tightest ending stocks estimate yet U.S. CORN SUPPLY AND UTILIZATION - JANUARY 2011/12 2012/13 2010/11 % Chng vs USDA Jan USDA Dec USDA Jan '11-12 Acres Planted Mil A 88.2 91.9 96.9 97.2 5.8% Acres Harvested Mil A 81.4 84 87.7 87.4 4.0% Yield Bu/A 152.8 147.2 122.3 123.4 -16.2% Beginning Stocks Mil Bu. 1708 1128 988 989 -12.3% Production Mil Bu. 12447 12360 10725 10780 -12.8% Imports Mil Bu. 28 29 100 100 244.8% Total Supply Mil Bu. 14182 13516 11814 11869 -12.2% Feed & Residual Mil Bu. 4795 4548 4150 4450 -2.2% Ethanol for fuel Mil Bu. 5019 5011 4500 4500 -10.2% Non-Ethanol FSI Mil Bu. 1407 1426 1367 1367 -4.1% Exports Mil Bu. 1834 1543 1150 950 -38.4% Total Usage Mil Bu. 13055 12527 11167 11267 -10.1% Carryover Mil Bu. 1128 989 647 602 -39.1% Stocks/Use 8.6% 7.9% 5.8% 5.3% -32.3% Nat. Wtd. Avg. Farm Price $/Bu. 5.18 6.22 6.80 - 8.00 6.80 - 8.00 19.0% Paragon Economics, Inc. From information, knowledge
  • 16. All usage estimates are much lower vs „11. . . Paragon Economics, Inc. From information, knowledge
  • 17. USDA finally agreed with me . . . . . . Animal numbers will not allow lower F/R Paragon Economics, Inc. From information, knowledge
  • 18. Hogs are the ONLY species to cut weights! Paragon Economics, Inc. From information, knowledge
  • 19. RFS is 13.2 bil. gal. in ‟12, 13.8 bil. in 2013 . . . . . . 13.6 bil. gal. for „12-‟13 crop yr = 4.86 bil. bu. Paragon Economics, Inc. From information, knowledge
  • 20. Question: How many RINs are out there? . . . ~2 to 2.5 bil. gallons – will they be used ? Paragon Economics, Inc. From information, knowledge
  • 21. Ethanol margins: Gross margin < FC . . . . . . Not covering VC – short-term shutdown Ethanol: $2.17/gal Corn: $6.50/bu Natural Gas: $3.29/mmBtu Paragon Economics, Inc. From information, knowledge
  • 22. Ethanol responded – down 9.7% in Q3 & Q4 . . . 34.2M gal/day will use 4.47 bil. bu. in „13 Paragon Economics, Inc. From information, knowledge
  • 23. Cash corn – cheaper but far from cheap . . . . . . But a good „13 crop = prices <$5/bu. Paragon Economics, Inc. From information, knowledge
  • 24. DDGS has finally come back into pig diets Paragon Economics, Inc. From information, knowledge
  • 25. Where will corn go – upside is not unlimited Paragon Economics, Inc. From information, knowledge
  • 26. Wheat is competitive – favors Canada . . . Paragon Economics, Inc. From information, knowledge
  • 27. Jan Beans – higher yield but HIGHER crush . . . . . Steady exports reflects S/A crop U.S. SOYBEAN SUPPLY & UTILIZATION - JANUARY 2011/12 2012/13 2010/11 % Chng vs USDA Jan USDA Dec USDA Jan '11-12 Acres Planted Mil A 77.4 75.0 77.2 77.2 2.9% Acres Harvested Mil A 76.6 73.8 75.7 76.1 3.1% Yield Bu/A 43.5 41.9 39.3 39.6 -5.5% Beginning Stocks Mil Bu. 151 215.0 169 169 -21.4% Production Mil Bu. 3329 3094.0 2971 3015 -2.6% Imports Mil Bu. 14 16.0 20 20 25.0% Total Supply Mil Bu. 3495 3325.0 3160 3204 -3.6% Crushings Mil Bu. 1648 1703.0 1570 1605 -5.8% Exports Mil Bu. 1501 1362.0 1345 1345 -1.2% Seed Mil Bu. 87 90.0 89 89 -1.1% Residual Mil Bu. 43 1.0 26 30 2900.0% Total Usage Mil Bu. 3280 3155.0 3031 3070 -2.7% Carryover Mil Bu. 215 169.0 130 135 -20.1% Stocks/Use 6.6% 5.4% 4.3% 4.4% -18% Nat. Wtd. Avg. Farm Price $/Bu. 11.30 12.50 13.55 - 15.55 13.50 - 15.00 14.0% Soybean Oil Price Cents/lb. 53.20 51.90 49.00 - 53.00 49.00 - 53.00 -1.7% Soybean Meal Price $/ton 345.52 393.53 440.00 - 470.00430.00 - 460.00 13.1% Paragon Economics, Inc. From information, knowledge
  • 28. South American crop still looks good  Argentina – some concerns - Early wetness and now dryer conditions, some are worried about shallow root systems - USDS lowered yield but the crop is still 54MMT – 35% larger than last year  Brazil – biggest concern is logistics - A record crop – larger than ours – of 82.5 MMT, up 24% from ‗12 - Record acres and yields on early harvest are above average Paragon Economics, Inc. From information, knowledge
  • 29. Where will SBM go? - Depends now on S/A . . . Support at $396 should be no surprise! Paragon Economics, Inc. From information, knowledge
  • 30. What will it take to recover? Situation 9/29 Paragon Economics, Inc. From information, knowledge
  • 31. Jan 12 situation is MUCH better . . . Paragon Economics, Inc. From information, knowledge
  • 32. Lower costs for 2013 but costs have risen. . . . . . By about $3/cwt in past 2 weeks Paragon Economics, Inc. From information, knowledge
  • 33. Profit outlook has dimmed . . . . . .futures-implied ‟13 profit was -$2, now -$7 Paragon Economics, Inc. From information, knowledge
  • 34. Another view – bad but not as bad as „09-‟10 Paragon Economics, Inc. From information, knowledge
  • 35. Critical Issues  Input prices and production costs  Domestic demand - Consumer income and willingness to spend - Consumer preferences - Prices of competing goods  Export demand - All of those same factors - Quantity also depends on exchange rate since it impacts prices in the importing country Paragon Economics, Inc. From information, knowledge
  • 36. The U.S. economy muddles along . . . . . . Still slowed by uncertainty Paragon Economics, Inc. From information, knowledge
  • 37. Real PDI change: Revised down, April on . . . . . . November was encouraging @ +1.8% Paragon Economics, Inc. From information, knowledge
  • 38. November RPI: Up from Oct, still <100 . . . Paragon Economics, Inc. From information, knowledge
  • 39. RPCE was good in November – for everyone!  4.4% higher beef per cap consumption, higher prices  6% higher chicken prices!  Pork RPCE driven by 4% increase in per cap cons. Paragon Economics, Inc. From information, knowledge
  • 40. ALL indexes are now positive for 12 mos . . . . . . If it lasts, first time that‟s ever happened Paragon Economics, Inc. From information, knowledge
  • 41. Per cap cons <200# for first time since „90 . . . But this is a SUPPLY issue Paragon Economics, Inc. From information, knowledge
  • 42. Prices are increasing as supplies tighten . . . . . New records for beef in Nov, chicken in Oct Paragon Economics, Inc. From information, knowledge
  • 43. Broiler flock near smallest since 1996 . . . . . . But was +2% in Dec and is same as yr ago Paragon Economics, Inc. From information, knowledge
  • 44. The Dec increase was unusual – expansion? Paragon Economics, Inc. From information, knowledge
  • 45. Sets and placements: Very close to „11 levels And were up 1.6% vs. ‘12 in first week of ‘13 And up 1.2% vs. ‘12 during first week of ‘13 Paragon Economics, Inc. From information, knowledge
  • 46. Weights were a big driver in spite of feed . . . . . . And were up 2.4% at 4.35 the first wk of „13 Paragon Economics, Inc. From information, knowledge
  • 47. Broiler cutout begins 2013 strong . . . . . . Will it be as stable as last year? Paragon Economics, Inc. From information, knowledge
  • 48. Chicken summary  Companies appear to be moving back to expansion – profitable!  Breeder flock grew in December – unusual – but is still small relative to history  Egg sets, placements – close to 2011 levels and have started ‗13 higher  Did not expect growth – and it will not be huge if it comes – lower U.S. per cap supply  Record-high prices -- again Paragon Economics, Inc. From information, knowledge
  • 49. 54% of pastures are poor/very poor. . . . . . West, Cornbelt, North Plains are BAD Paragon Economics, Inc. From information, knowledge
  • 50. Beef cow slaughter: -12.4% vs. ‟11 . . . . . . And still showed liquidation in December Paragon Economics, Inc. From information, knowledge
  • 51. Smallest U.S. beef cow herd since 1946 . . . . . . And the smallest calf crop since 1949 Paragon Economics, Inc. From information, knowledge
  • 52. Tight supplies of cattle outside feedlots . . . . . . Down 1.7%, 2.7% and 3.3% last 3 years Paragon Economics, Inc. From information, knowledge
  • 53. Nov placements were 5.6% LOWER than ‟11 . . . . . After -10, -11 ,-19 and -13% prior 4 months Paragon Economics, Inc. From information, knowledge
  • 54. Dec 1 COF was down 6% from 2011 . . . . . . There were 700k head fewer on feed Paragon Economics, Inc. From information, knowledge
  • 55. No turn-around in sight for availability. . . . . . Per-cap down 2-3% in „12 and 3%+ in „13 Paragon Economics, Inc. From information, knowledge
  • 56. When will Choice cutout finally break $200. . Paragon Economics, Inc. From information, knowledge
  • 57. Beef summary . ..  Weights remain high – Zilmax & Optiflexx?  Lower cattle numbers – partially offset by higher weights – but lower beef supplies  Cow slaughter remains high relative to the herd – pasture conditions – Rain?  Longer term: Tighter and tighter per cap supplies, higher prices – thru 2015?  Will beef cease to be a habit for anyone below the middle class? Paragon Economics, Inc. From information, knowledge
  • 58. World economic conditions August 2011 . . . . . . Improvement except in U.S. and EU Paragon Economics, Inc. From information, knowledge
  • 59. November 2012 – EU Recession BUT . . . China, Brazil, U.S. growth improvement Paragon Economics, Inc. From information, knowledge
  • 60. Pork exports are still up 5.6% YTD vs. 2011 . . . . . Oct was down 7.6% from „11 Paragon Economics, Inc. From information, knowledge
  • 61. China/HK was 59% below yr. ago in Oct but . . . . . +2% YTD; Mexico is +15%, Canada +17% Paragon Economics, Inc. From information, knowledge
  • 62. Canada‟s exports were record high in 2012 . . . . . Forecast by USDA-FAS to fall 4.4% in „13 Paragon Economics, Inc. From information, knowledge
  • 63. Exchange rates  Real is the big mover among competitors  Peso and won have improved but are still weaker than one year ago  Strong renmimbi but rapidly falling yen Paragon Economics, Inc. From information, knowledge
  • 64. USDA: World slaughter +0.09% in 2013 . . . NO big reductions – even in the EU???? Paragon Economics, Inc. From information, knowledge
  • 65. Demand summary  U.S. demand indexes are now ALL positive for ‗12 – can they stay that way?  U.S. exports are expected to set another record in ‘13; Exchange rates will be key  Higher beef and chicken (??) prices will be positive for pork demand  My biggest concern: Consumer income and expenditures - 77% of U.S. output is still sold at home! Paragon Economics, Inc. From information, knowledge
  • 66. Critical Issues  Input prices and production costs  Demand—domestic and exports  Hog Supplies Paragon Economics, Inc. From information, knowledge
  • 67. Dec H&P report – more hogs than expected . . USDA QUARTERLY HOGS & PIGS REPORT December 28, 2012 '12 as Pre- Actual - 2011 2012 Pct of Report Est Category '11 Est's Inventories on Dec 1* All hogs and pigs 66,361 66,348 100.0 99.1 0.9 Kept for breeding 5,803 5,817 100.2 99.3 0.9 Kept for market 60,558 60,531 100.0 99.1 0.9 Under 50 lbs. 19,524 19,448 99.6 98.4 1.2 50-119 lbs. 16,643 16,643 100.0 99.0 1.0 120-179 lbs. 12,473 12,479 100.0 99.6 0.4 180 lbs. and over 11,918 11,961 100.4 100.5 -0.1 Farrowings** Sep-Nov sows farrowed 2,929 2,900 99.0 97.9 1.1 Dec-Feb Intentions 2,864 2,865 100.0 98.4 1.6 Mar-May Intentions 2,982 2,925 98.1 98.8 -0.7 Sep-Nov Pig Crop1* 29,365 29,443 100.3 99.0 1.3 Sep-Nov Pigs Saved/ litter 10.02 10.15 101.3 100.8 0.5 *Thousand head **Thousand litters Paragon Economics, Inc. From information, knowledge
  • 68. Canada‟s Jan 1 herd? -- likely down 1-2% Paragon Economics, Inc. From information, knowledge
  • 69. The larger Dec sow herd was not a surprise. . . . . Slaughter: Low enough to suggest growth Paragon Economics, Inc. From information, knowledge
  • 70. Gilt slaughter percent suggest even more. . . . . Lower than 5-yr avg all but 3 wks since Sept Paragon Economics, Inc. From information, knowledge
  • 71. Canada‟s herd reductions – same as in „11 Paragon Economics, Inc. From information, knowledge
  • 72. Litter size growth back to 1.3% in Q3. . . . . . Trend has slowed a bit but still strong Paragon Economics, Inc. From information, knowledge
  • 73. „13 slaughter will be slightly larger than ‟12 . . . . But the pattern will be different Paragon Economics, Inc. From information, knowledge
  • 74. Canada‟s slaughter JUST DOES NOT CHANGE! Paragon Economics, Inc. From information, knowledge
  • 75. Imports from Canada: Stable since 2009 . . . . . . How will an MCOOL change impact this? Paragon Economics, Inc. From information, knowledge
  • 76. Freezer inventories are high with . . . . . . All up 12.2% yr/y and pork up 14.4% Paragon Economics, Inc. From information, knowledge
  • 77. Weights matched 5-yr avg in Q4 . . . . . . still 2+ lbs. lower, likely stay there thru Q2 Paragon Economics, Inc. From information, knowledge
  • 78. YTD pork production was up 1.8% yr/yr . . . . . . And will be higher than „12 thru April Paragon Economics, Inc. From information, knowledge
  • 79. Cutout begins the year at yr-ago level . . . . . . Normal seasonal would peak at $100-$104 Paragon Economics, Inc. From information, knowledge
  • 80. Will hog prices observe a “normal” pattern . . . . . . If so, summer highs just over $100 Paragon Economics, Inc. From information, knowledge
  • 81. December slaughter forecasts December 2012 Hogs & Pigs -- Commercial Slaughter Forecasts Mizzou ISU LMIC Paragon Mil. Hd % Chnge Mil. Hd % Chnge Mil. Hd % Chnge Mil. Hd % Chnge 2011 Q1** 27.483 -0.5% Q2 26.110 0.1% Q3 27.379 1.6% Q4* 29.888 0.9% Year 110.862 0.5% 2012 Q1 28.104 2.3% 28.104 2.3% 28.104 2.3% 28.104 2.3% Q2 26.659 2.1% 26.659 2.1% 26.659 2.1% 26.659 2.1% Q3* 27.963 2.1% 27.963 1.2% 27.963 2.1% 27.963 2.1% Q4** 30.400 1.7% 30.400 1.7% 30.400 1.7% 30.400 1.7% Year 113.126 2.0% 113.126 2.0% 113.126 2.0% 113.126 2.0% 2013 Q1* 27.762 -1.2% 27.739 -1.3% 27.704 -1.4% 28.292 0.7% Q2 26.811 0.6% 26.899 0.9% 26.242 -1.6% 26.892 0.9% Q3** 28.437 1.7% 28.299 1.2% 27.869 -0.3% 28.298 1.2% Q4 30.349 -0.2% 30.613 0.7% 30.207 -0.6% 29.860 -1.8% Year 113.359 0.2% 113.549 0.4% 112.022 -1.0% 113.342 0.2% Green figures are actual data from USDA. Blue figures are estimated using USDA data 1/1/13 *Quarter has one LESS slaughter day vs. year ago **Quarter has one MORE slaughter day vs. year ago Paragon Economics, Inc. From information, knowledge
  • 82. Price forecasts December 2012 Hogs & Pigs -- Price Forecasts Mizzou ISU LMIC Paragon CME Producer-Sold National Net Ia-Mn Wtd. Avg. National Wtd CME Lean Hog Net Price, All Neg'd Price, Base Lean Hog Avg. Base Price Futures Methods Wtd. Avg. 2011 Q1 80.54 78.92 79.74 80.91 81.54** Q2 92.36 89.37 89.53 94.89 93.97** Q3 95.59 92.31 92.25 97.61 97.49** Q4 87.39 85.94 85.17 87.92 88.11** Year 88.97 86.64 86.67 90.33 90.28** 2012 Q1 86.56 84.27 84.11 86.11 86.44** Q2 87.76 83.67 85.31 86.67 86.64** Q3 87.69 85.05 84.74 84.97 86.64** Q4 82.90 82 - 83 80.60 81.61 82.13** Year 86.20 84 - 85 83.69 84.84 85.46** 2013 Q1 82 - 86 85 - 87 83 - 87 84 - 88 85.38 Q2 89 - 93 89 - 92 86 - 91 88 - 92 93.32 Q3 88 - 92 90 - 93 89 - 94 90 - 94 94.79 Q4 80 - 84 84 - 86 81 - 86 83 - 87 84.60 Year 85 - 89 87 - 89 85 - 90 87 - 90 89.52 Green figures are actual data from USDA. Blue figures are estimated using USDA data **CME Lean Hog Index 1/22/13 Paragon Economics, Inc. From information, knowledge
  • 83. My model says finances are weak . . . . . . But lenders believe status is not this bad! Paragon Economics, Inc. From information, knowledge
  • 84. Why/how are producers holding on?  Futures, esp. summer 2013 have offered near breakevens for the year -- survive  Financial position is better than my ―cash‖ model suggests – risk management since 2008, lower costs than my model  ―This is what I do‖ – no alternatives?  Betting on rain – and the bets are HUGE - I don‘t see how many can survive a dry ‗13 - ―Massive‖ liquidation may finally come to pass Paragon Economics, Inc. From information, knowledge
  • 85. Long-term issues  Costs, costs, costs = Prices, prices, prices - Consumer incomes and spending - How much less meat/poultry/dairy consumed?  Animal welfare – Chronic challenges - Stalls – not logical, making some headway - Castration, tail docking, - Ultimately: Indoor production  Risk management skills  Policy – farm bill, antibiotics Paragon Economics, Inc. From information, knowledge
  • 86. Questions or Comments? Paragon Economics, Inc. From information, knowledge