This is a modified version of a presentation that was used to introduce the concept of "futuring", i.e. constructing creative and valid visions of the future, to a class of undergraduate students at the University of Minnesota.

1. A Brief introduction to
Futuring
What is it, why do we do it, and
how?
Tryggvi Thayer
thay0012@umn.edu
February, 2013

2. So many futures!
• Probable futures
1. What can we reasonably expect to happen?
• Possible futures
1. Could other things be made to happen?
2. What would produce those other futures?
• Preferred futures
1. What do we want to happen?
2. How can we make that happen?

3. Different approaches to
futuring*
• Analytical – What does available evidence suggest for the future?
- Forecasting (ex. Moore’s Law): Extrapolate from available data.
- Trends analysis (ex. Climate change): Identify patterns in current and past developments.
Purpose is to suggest what is likely to happen
• Generative – What kind of future can we/do we want to create?
- Scenarios (ex. High-speed rail corridors): Construct shared visions of possible and preferred
futures.
- Foresight (ex. Sustainable development): Use multiple methods to imagine shared futures.
Purpose is to suggest things we wish to happen
*”Futuring” is a concept borrowed from Edward Cornish which describes the process of engaging in creative
activities intended to produce visions of the future.

4. Generating statements about
the future
What are the significant driving forces?
1. What will produce change?
2. What kind of change is likely to be produced?
Some futuring methods
1. Brainstorming
2. Environmental scanning
3. Scenarios
4. Visioning
5. Delphi

5. Outcomes of futuring exercises
• Forecasts
• Creative visions
• Foresight
Futuring produces statements about possible,
probable or preferred futures.

6. Statements about the future
• Future statements differ from other
statements (V. H. Dudman)
– They are not empirically verifiable.
– They have no truth value.
So what are they?

7. Statements about the future
• Statements about the future are judgments
(Thakkar, 2006)
– They are based on judgments concerning
current events and circumstances, and
observable trends.
– Judgments are not true or false – they are
valid or invalid.
Statements about the future describe
possibilities, probabilities or
preferences.

8. Constructing preferred futures
• The validity of statements about the future can be
altered by manipulating or reconsidering underlying
assumptions.
• When confronted with statements about the future, our
primary goal is to identify underlying assumptions and
projected pathways to be able to construct preferred
futures.
Statements about possible futures help us plan for
preferred futures.