1. Industrial Report
North San Diego County
4th Quarter 2011
PREPARED BY: COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL
Adam Molnar 5901 Priestly Drive, Suite 100
Greg Lewis Carlsbad, CA 92008
Tucker Hohenstein Fax 760 438 8925
Mike Erwin www.colliers.com/carlsbad
Mike Bench
2. Q4 2011 | INDUSTRIAL
NORTH COUNTY
AT A GLANCE
OVERVIEW
The North San Diego County industrial market is largely decentralized and comprised of
ve cities including Carlsbad, Escondido, Oceanside, San Marcos and Vista. Situated 35
miles north of downtown San Diego and 52 miles south of John Wayne Airport in Orange
Oceanside County, the coastal location is a major factor in the area’s appeal to corporate users and
Vista
its 826,985 residents.
Carlsbad
San Escondid The industrial market consists of approximately 52.3 million square feet. By comparison,
Marcos
Ocean the total San Diego industrial market is 188.3 million square feet. North County represents
27% of the total. Year-end 2011 North County vacancy was 10.9%. The vacancy rate
is improving as 566,762 SF of positive net absorption occurred. The following table
MARKET INDICATORS summarizes the inventory and vacancy in the market:
Q4 Q1
2011 2012 (forecast)
Submarket Buildings Total Inventory Vacant SF Vacancy Rate
VACANCY Carlsbad 485 15,011,955 2,116,686 14.10%
Escondido 637 7,183,097 445,352 6.20%
NET ABSORPTION
Oceanside 396 8,038,044 1,374,506 17.10%
CONSTRUCTION San Marcos 489 8,703,364 617,939 7.10%
RENTAL RATE Vista 530 13,373,882 1,150,154 8.60%
Total 2,537 52,310,342 5,701,827 10.90%
LEASE CONCESSIONS
North San Diego County is well known for its highly skilled labor force, excellent
transportation network, pro-growth business environment, signi cant Federal
Government presence, desirable vacation destination and abundant employee housing.
INDUSTRIAL/R&D VACANCY RATES The North San Diego County industrial market is home to a diversi ed mix of users
Q4 2011
INDUSTRIAL/R&D VACANCY RATES including defense, telecommunications, software, medical manufacturing, golf and leisure
CARLSBAD HISTORICAL MARKET TRENDS VISTA HISTORICAL MARKET TRENDS
Q4 2011 sports, life science and technology rms. Corporate neighbors include:
Carlsbad 14.1%
Escondido 6.2%
Coca-Cola Isis Pharmaceuticals DJO Inc.
Medtronic Life Technologies Linear
Oceanside 17.1%
Titleist Golf Puma Golf Killion Industries
San Marcos 7.1% ViaSat TaylorMade Golf Jeld-Wen Windows and Doors
Vista 8.6% Covidien Denso Wireless Sumitomo Electric
North County 10.9% Abbott Labs U.S. Foodservice McCain Inc.
Genentech Philips Respironics Directed Electronics
0% 5% 10% 15% 20%
Callaway Golf Thomson Reuters GIA
L-3 Communications Rockwell Collins Hunter Industries
SAIC John Deere Watkins Manufacturing
OCEANSIDE HISTORICAL MARKET TRENDS SAN MARCOS HISTORICAL MARKET TRENDS
www.colliers.com/carlsbad
3. AT A GLANCE | Q4 2011 | INDUSTRIAL | NORTH COUNTY
ACTIVITY
Big tenants made a positive impact in 2011. NORTH COUNTY HISTORICAL MARKET TRENDS
The bulk of the year’s absorption can be
traced to tenants such as: BREG (88K), Zodiac 1,500 14%
(104K), John Deere (76K) SKLZ (150K), 12%
1,000
DJO (53K), PrAna (64K), Allied Swiss (63K) 10%
and Teamwork (40K). This demand from
Vacancy Rate
SF (000s)
500
8%
corporate tenants helped 2011 post 566,000
square feet of net absorption, which is well 0
6%
above the 5-year moving average of 104,000 4%
square feet. Vacancy declined slightly to -500
2%
10.9% at the end of 2011 versus 11.22% at the
end of 2010. -1,000 0%
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Owner-users and investors cautiously
Net Absorption New Supply Vacancy
entered the market during 2011, which led
to inconsistent sales activity. First quarter
showed promising signs in terms of activity, however the balance of the year was sparse and Q4 nished with
only one sale above 15,000 square feet. The most active size segment for owner-users was 15,000-35,000
square feet. These owner-users were able to take advantage of low interest rates (4.0-5.0% during 2011) and
sale prices between $75-100/SF. Investors were also buying in the same price range with following notable
transactions: LBA purchased 237,000 square feet in the Carlsbad Research Center as part of a sale leaseback
to Callaway Golf, Peregrine bought 127,000 square feet of multi-tenant space in Carlsbad, Alliance Partners
purchased 200,000 square feet in Oceanside and Bixby Land Company bought the 170,000 square foot Palomar
Oaks Technology Park.
FORECAST
We anticipate the North County industrial market to perform similarly to how it did in 2011. This means lease
rates will remain stable across product types and sizes, while North County vacancy could shed another 100-
125 basis points. Consequently, we should continue to see a reduction in supply throughout 2012, as there is
no additional industrial product under construction. As demand improves, the result will be an increase in lease
rates and fewer tenant concessions.
The improving economy and limited product in North County should result in a slight increase in real estate
prices in 2012, and a modest increase in property sales. Further supporting this trend is the Lenders willingness
to modify and extend problem loans, which has signi cantly limited the amount of distressed properties in the
market. We will continue to see investment dollars waiting for lender controlled properties, as well as Sellers
that are in a relatively healthy position, continuing to wait for the eventual Buyer.
This document has been prepared by Colliers International for advertising and general information only. Colliers
prepared by ADAM MOLNAR, GREG LEWIS, TUCKER HOHENSTEIN International makes no guarantees, representations or warranties of any kind, expressed or implied, regarding
the information including, but not limited to, warranties of content, accuracy and reliability. Any interested party
MIKE ERWIN, MIKE BENCH 760 438 8950 should undertake their own inquiries as to the accuracy of the information. Colliers International excludes
unequivocally all inferred or implied terms, conditions and warranties arising out of this document and excludes
all liability for loss and damages arising there from.
4. Q4 2011 | INDUSTRIAL
CARLSBAD
AT A GLANCE
OVERVIEW
Carlsbad rebounded from a negative 3Q 2011 and nished the year on a positive note
by posting 93,000 square feet of absorption in 4Q 2011. However, the overall statistics
for 2011 reveal a fairly at year with a modest 18,615 square feet of positive absorption.
Oceanside Compared to one year ago the overall vacancy rate for Industrial/R&D increased by one
Vista percentage point to 14.14%. Despite having a higher overall vacancy rate (15.37% versus
12.81%), R&D product vastly outperformed Industrial in 2011 by posting a positive gain
San of 214,000 square feet versus 195,717 square feet of negative absorption. The only
Carlsbad Marcos new construction delivered in 2011 was the 176,000 SF BTS for Isis Pharmaceuticals at
Ocean
Carlsbad Oaks North.
ACTIVITY
MARKET INDICATORS
For the second straight quarter the 15,000 to 25,000 square foot segment of the R&D
Q4 Q1 market led the charge in terms of leasing activity with ve transactions during 4Q 2011.
2011 2012 (forecast)
The largest lease deal of the quarter, and the year for that matter, was the 150,000 SF
VACANCY
sublease to SKLZ at 2081 Faraday Avenue. The sublessor was Callaway Golf and the
sublease expires in November 2017. SKLZ will be relocating and expanding from their
NET ABSORPTION current facility in Carlsbad and will use the building primarily for distribution. The only
sale transaction in 4Q was an investment sale between Bixby Land Company and Arden
CONSTRUCTION
Realty. Bixby purchased the 170,915 square foot Palomar Oaks Technology Park for a
RENTAL RATE blended rate of $92.44/SF. The project was approximately 50% leased at the time of the
sale and consists of ve R&D properties valued at $75.00/SF and one o ce property at
LEASE CONCESSIONS $133.00/SF.
FORECAST
INDUSTRIAL/R&D VACANCY RATES CARLSBAD HISTORICAL MARKET TRENDS VISTA
With no new product proposed
Q4 2011
700 16%
or planned during 2012 the
600 14%
market should begin to correct
500 12%
INDUSTRIAL/R&D VACANCY RATES itself and vacancy rates are
Q4 2011 400 10%
CARLSBAD HISTORICAL MARKET TRENDS Rental
expected to decrease. Vacancy Rate
SF (000s)
INDUSTRIAL/R&D VACANCY RATES 300
VISTA HISTORICAL MARKET TRENDS 8%
Q4 2011 rates for the most part have
200 6%
Carlsbad
Carlsbad 14.1% leveled o after a prolonged
100 4%
Escondido 6.2%
decline. Sale prices for the
0 2%
limited amount of investment
Oceanside -100 0%
17.1% product are still well below 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
San Marcos 7.1% replacement cost and the
Vista 8.6%
occasional bank owned Net Absorption New Supply Vacancy
properties have provided
North County 10.9% opportunistic owner users a rare chance to buy at a signiMARKETdiscount. These low
OCEANSIDE HISTORICAL
cant TRENDS SAN
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% prices for lender controlled properties have created a large disparity between distressed
and traditional pricing expectations. Sellers that are in a relatively healthy position have
been somewhat frustrated by this disconnect which has engendered stagnation in the
market.
OCEANSIDE HISTORICAL MARKET TRENDS SAN MARCOS HISTORICAL MARKET TRENDS
www.colliers.com/carlsbad
5. El C
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AT A GLANCE | Q4 2011 | INDUSTRIAL | CARLSBAD Ave
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TRANSACTION ACTIVITY - Q4 2011
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SALES ACTIVITY La Costa Resort
Av & Spa
iara
Pk
# PROPERTY NAME/ADDRESS
wy BUYER TYPE SIZE SF SALE PRICE PRICE/SF
Park Hyatt
1 Aviara Resort
Palomar Oaks Technology Park Investor 170,915 $15,800,000 $92.44
LEASING ACTIVITY
# PROPERTY NAME/ADDRESS TENANT NAME SIZE SF TERM EFF RATE/SF
2 2081 Faraday Avenue SKLZ 150,159 69 months $0.60 NNN
3 2721 Loker Avenue Blue Earth, Inc. 20,329 72 months $1.03 NNN
4 1890 Rutherford Road Genoptix, Inc. 20,108 38 months $1.81 NNN
5 1905 Aston Avenue Ryderz Compound, LLC 19,794 52 months $0.87 NNN
6 1815 Aston Avenue JetHead Development, Inc. 17,776 36 months $1.29 MG
7 6197 El Camino Real ViaSat, Inc. 15,303 62 months $0.97 NNN
This document has been prepared by Colliers International for advertising and general information only. Colliers
prepared by ADAM MOLNAR, GREG LEWIS, TUCKER HOHENSTEIN International makes no guarantees, representations or warranties of any kind, expressed or implied, regarding
the information including, but not limited to, warranties of content, accuracy and reliability. Any interested party
MIKE ERWIN, MIKE BENCH 760 438 8950 should undertake their own inquiries as to the accuracy of the information. Colliers International excludes
unequivocally all inferred or implied terms, conditions and warranties arising out of this document and excludes
all liability for loss and damages arising there from.
6. Q4 2011 | INDUSTRIAL
ESCONDIDO
AT A GLANCE
OVERVIEW
Escondido closed 2011 with the lowest vacancy rate of any city in North San Diego
County. Year end direct vacancy was 6.0%. The good news continued with positive net
absorption for both the fourth quarter and the year. The fourth quarter ended with 25,184
Oceanside
Vista
SF of positive net absorption which delivered a year -end total of 128,536 SF. There is
no new industrial building or ex construction underway at this time. The new Palomar
Medical Center under construction on a 56 acre site in the Escondido Research and
San Escondido
Carlsbad Marcos Technology Center continues to take shape with a target opening of summer 2102.
Ocean
ACTIVITY
Transaction activity in Escondido the past quarter was limited to one mid-size lease for
MARKET INDICATORS the market, two sales and several smaller lease deals. VIT Products leased 26,664 SF at
Q4 Q1
2344 Auto Park Way taking down a building that had been empty for over 2 years. There
2011 2012 (forecast) was an REO sale of an 11,264SF building at 1250 Industrial Avenue for $84 SF. The other
sale was for a 10,120 SF building at 1200 Simpson Way for $130 SF. A handful of smaller
VACANCY multi-tenant leases from 1,000 to 3,000 SF were completed to end 2011 on a good note.
NET ABSORPTION
FORECAST
CONSTRUCTION The road ahead is bright for Escondido. With a healthy vacancy rate of just 6% there will
be upward pressure on rental rates and sale prices in 2012. The economy is showing
RENTAL RATE
signs of recovery and increases in employment will drive demand for industrial space.
LEASE CONCESSIONS One of our clients is tentatively planning on breaking ground on a new speculative, for
lease industrial project in Escondido which is something we have not seen for several
years.
ESCONDIDO HISTORICAL MARKET TRENDS NORTH COUNTY NET ABSOR
INDUSTRIAL/R&D VACANCY RATES
Q4 2011
300 10%
INDUSTRIAL/R&D VACANCY RATES CARLSBAD HISTORICAL MARKET TRENDS VISTA HISTORICAL MARKET TRENDS
Q4 2011 9%
200
Carlsbad 8%
14.1%
100 7% 5-Yr. Avg. = 104,2
Escondido
Escondido 6.2%
Vacancy Rate
SF (000s)
6%
0
Oceanside 17.1% 5%
-100
4%
San Marcos 7.1%
-200 3%
Vista 8.6% 2%
-300
1%
North County 10.9%
-400 0%
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Net Absorption New Supply Vacancy
OCEANSIDE HISTORICAL MARKET TRENDS SAN MARCOS HISTORICAL MARKET TRENDS
NORTH COUNTY HISTORICAL MARKET TRENDS
www.colliers.com/carlsbad
7. AT A GLANCE | Q4 2011 | INDUSTRIAL | ESCONDIDO
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TRANSACTION ACTIVITY - Q4 2011
SALES ACTIVITY
# PROPERTY NAME/ADDRESS BUYER TYPE SIZE SF SALE PRICE PRICE/SF
1 1250 Industrial Avenue User 11,264 $950,000 $84.34
2 1200 Simpson Way User 10,120 $1,316,500 $130.09
LEASING ACTIVITY
# PROPERTY NAME/ADDRESS TENANT NAME SIZE SF TERM EFF RATE/SF
3 2344 Auto Park Way VIT Products 26,664 48 months $0.47 Gross
This document has been prepared by Colliers International for advertising and general information only. Colliers
prepared by ADAM MOLNAR, GREG LEWIS, TUCKER HOHENSTEIN International makes no guarantees, representations or warranties of any kind, expressed or implied, regarding
the information including, but not limited to, warranties of content, accuracy and reliability. Any interested party
MIKE ERWIN, MIKE BENCH 760 438 8950 should undertake their own inquiries as to the accuracy of the information. Colliers International excludes
unequivocally all inferred or implied terms, conditions and warranties arising out of this document and excludes
all liability for loss and damages arising there from.
8. Q4 2011 | INDUSTRIAL
OCEANSIDE
AT A GLANCE
INDUSTRIAL/R&D VACANCY RATES CARLSBAD HISTORICAL MARKET TRENDS VISTA
Q4 2011
OVERVIEW
While Oceanside still maintains the highest vacancy rate in North County at 17.1%,
175,000 square feet of positive net absorption during 2011 demonstrates that large
corporations continue to relocate to Oceanside. They are taking advantage of attractive
Oceanside rental rates and the high corporate image that Oceanside o ers.
Vista
With 25 buildings in excess of 15,000 SF currently available, landlords are aggressively
San pursuing users in the market and looking for ways to di erentiate their real estate from
Carlsbad Marcos the competition.
Ocean
ACTIVITY
There were no building sales OCEANSIDE HISTORICAL MARKET TRENDS SAN M
MARKET INDICATORS
larger than 15,000 SF during 800 20%
Q4
2011
Q1
2012 (forecast)
the fourth quarter. There 18%
600
were 5 buildings sold in the 16%
VACANCY
quarter less than 15,000 SF. 400
14%
Vacancy Rate
SF (000s)
12%
Land activity is bolstered by 200 10%
NET ABSORPTION U.S. Food Service, which is 8%
0
planning to close escrow on 6%
CONSTRUCTION 4%
29 acres in Ocean Ranch in -200
2%
RENTAL RATE February 2012. They plan on -400 0%
holding the land for the next 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
LEASE CONCESSIONS 3-5 years before constructing
Net Absorption New Supply Vacancy
a 400,000 – 500,000 SF
build-to-suit.
Lease transaction activity was relatively slow. A signi cant surge came late in the
quarter from Solar Gard, proving to be Oceanside’s most signi cant new lease
INDUSTRIAL/R&D VACANCY RATES transaction completed. Solar Gard which is a subsidiary of Saint Gobain leased 35,463
Q4 2011
INDUSTRIAL/R&D VACANCY RATES CARLSBAD HISTORICALve years at 1865 Ord Way in the Prescott Industrial Park. They plan to utilize
SF for MARKET TRENDS VISTA HISTORICAL MARKET TRENDS
Q4 2011 the manufacturing facility as an expansion for their automotive window lm business.
Carlsbad 14.1% Occupancy is contingent upon a conditional use permit through the city that is expected to
Escondido 6.2%
occur early rst quarter of 2012.
Oceanside
Oceanside 17.1% FORECAST
San Marcos 7.1% Oceanside has started the year strongly with two notable rst quarter 2012 transactions.
Vista 8.6%
La Cantina Doors recently leased 66,780 SF for 5 years at 2817 Ocean Ranch Blvd in the
La Paci ca Business Park. Brixton, Ltd has leased 22,666 SF for 3 years at 1340 Rocky
North County 10.9% Point Drive in the Paci c Coast Business Park. This has created a positive buzz within
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% the business community. We expect leasing to double in the rst quarter of 2012 with 3
signi cant companies exploring Oceanside’s opportunities at this time.
OCEANSIDE HISTORICAL MARKET TRENDS SAN MARCOS HISTORICAL MARKET TRENDS
www.colliers.com/carlsbad
9. AT A GLANCE | Q4 2011 | INDUSTRIAL | OCEANSIDE
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TRANSACTION ACTIVITY - Q3 2011
SALES ACTIVITY
# PROPERTY NAME/ADDRESS BUYER TYPE SIZE SF SALE PRICE PRICE/SF
There were no buildings sales larger than 15,000SF during Q4
LEASING ACTIVITY
# PROPERTY NAME/ADDRESS TENANT NAME SIZE SF TERM EFF RATE
1 2817 Ocean Ranch Boulevard La Cantina Doors 66,780 60 months $0.55/NNN
2 1865 Ord Way Solar Gard - Saint Gobain 35,463 60 months $0.54/NNN
3 1340 Rocky Point Drive Brixton 22,666 36 months $0.59/G
This document has been prepared by Colliers International for advertising and general information only. Colliers
prepared by ADAM MOLNAR, GREG LEWIS, TUCKER HOHENSTEIN International makes no guarantees, representations or warranties of any kind, expressed or implied, regarding
the information including, but not limited to, warranties of content, accuracy and reliability. Any interested party
MIKE ERWIN, MIKE BENCH 760 438 8950 should undertake their own inquiries as to the accuracy of the information. Colliers International excludes
unequivocally all inferred or implied terms, conditions and warranties arising out of this document and excludes
all liability for loss and damages arising there from.
10. Q4 2011 | INDUSTRIAL
SAN MARCOS
AT A GLANCE
OVERVIEW
The San Marcos industrial market continues to improve as Q4 followed the positive trends
of Q3, which included more companies leasing space, resulting in additional positive
absorption and an overall reduction in vacancy. Vacancy decreased from 8.9% to 7.10%
Oceanside between Q3 and Q4, and year-end absorption was a positive 103,417 square feet.
Vista
San Escondido
Marcos
ACTIVITY
Carlsbad
Ocean Leasing activity mainly consisted of small tenants in multi-tenant parks and a few notable
transactions such as Crescent Electric’s 30,000 square foot lease at 295 Distribution
Street. Crescent Electric Supply Company is one of the largest independent distributors
MARKET INDICATORS of electrical hardware and supplies in the U.S. Based in East Dubuque, Illinois, Crescent
Electric has 120 distribution facilities in 27 states. Another notable lease transaction was
Q4
AD HISTORICAL MARKET TRENDS Q1 VISTA HISTORICAL MARKET TRENDS
2011 2012 (forecast) the approximately 16,000 square foot lease by Piercan USA, Inc., which is a latex glove
company with headquarters in Paris, France and San Marcos, California.
VACANCY
There were limited sales during the Q4, mainly smaller buildings under 10,000 square feet.
NET ABSORPTION
Prices maintained its recent levels at approximately $90 - $120/SF.
CONSTRUCTION
RENTAL RATE FORECAST
We should continue to see a reduction in supply throughout 2012 as there is no additional
LEASE CONCESSIONS
industrial product under construction, combined with the City’s elimination of some
industrial zoned real estate. We also expect an uptick in demand as overall improvement in
local consumer con dence continues to absorb available product.
INDUSTRIAL/R&D VACANCY RATES
DE HISTORICAL MARKET TRENDS SAN MARCOS HISTORICAL MARKET TRENDS
Q4 2011
INDUSTRIAL/R&D VACANCY RATES CARLSBAD HISTORICAL MARKET TRENDS
300 VISTA HISTORICAL MARKET TRENDS
9%
Q4 2011
8%
Carlsbad 14.1% 200
7%
Escondido 6.2% 100 6%
Vacancy Rate
SF (000s)
5%
Oceanside 17.1% 0
4%
San Marcos
San Marcos 7.1% -100 3%
Vista 8.6% 2%
-200
1%
North County 10.9%
-300 0%
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Net Absorption New Supply Vacancy
OCEANSIDE HISTORICAL MARKET TRENDS SAN MARCOS HISTORICAL MARKET TRENDS
www.colliers.com/carlsbad