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Consumer Price Inflation for the UK Economy
Percent

Annual percentage change in the Consumer Price Index

5.5

5.5

5.0

5.0

4.5

4.5

4.0

4.0

3.5

3.5

3.0

3.0

2.5

2.5

2.0

2.0
CPI Inflation target = 2%

1.5

1.5

1.0

1.0

0.5

0.5

0.0

0.0

97

98

99

00

01

02

03

04

05

06

07

08

09

10

11

12

13

Source: UK Statistics Commission
Inflation Expectations
Bank of England/NOP, how do you expect prices to change over the next 12 months?
6.0

5.0

5.0

4.0

Percent

6.0

4.0

3.0

3.0

2.0

2.0

1.0

1.0

0.0

0.0
Q1

Q3
Q1
Q3
Q1
Q3
Q1
Q3
Q1
Q3
Q1
Q3
06
07
08
09
10
11
How do you expect prices to change over the next 12 months?
United Kingdom, Consumer Prices, By Commodity, All items (CPI), Chg Y/Y

Q1

Q3
12

Q1
13

Source: Bank of England
Consumer Price Inflation in Europe and the UK
Percent

Annual percentage change in consumer prices
6

6

UK
5

5

4

4

3

3

2

2

1

1

Euro Zone
0

0

-1

-1
05

06

07

08

09

10

11

12

13

Source: Reuters EcoWin
Changing Real Prices for Goods and Services
Retail Price Index, January 1988 = 100
600

500

500

400

Index

600

400

Cigarettes

300

Rail fares

300

Repairs

200

200
All goods and services
Clothing and footwear

100

100
Electrical appliances

0

0

88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13
Source: Monthly Digest and Statistics
Electricity and Gas Prices compared with changes in the CPI
Index of consumer prices, 2005=100
250

250

225

225

200

200
Gas Prices
175

Index

175

150

150

Electricity Prices

125

125

Consumer Price Index (all items)
100

100

75

75
05

06

All items (CPI)

07
Gas

08

09

10

11

12

13

Electricity
Source: Reuters EcoWin
Consumer Price Inflation and Interest Rates for the UK
Annual percentage change in the UK Consumer Price Index, the inflation target is 2%

6

6

Base Interest Rates

5

5

Percent

4

4

3

3

2

2

Consumer Price Inflation

1

1

0

0

04

05

06

07

08

09

10

11

12

13

Source: Reuters EcoWin
Price Deflation for Selected Items
Consumer price index, monthly value, 2005=100
170

170

160

160

150

150

140

140
Audio-Visual Equipment
130

120

Index

130

120

110

110

100

100

Clothing and Footwear

90

90

80

80

70

70

60

60

50

50

40

40
00

01

02

03

04

05

06

07

08

09

10

11

12

13

Source: Reuters EcoWin
Consumer Price Inflation for Goods and Services
Annual Percentage Change in Prices

6

6

Inflation in Services

5

5

4

3

Percent

4

3

2

2

1

1

0

0

-1

-1

-2

Inflation in Goods

-2

-3

-3

99

00

01

02

03

04

05

06

07

08

09

10

11

12

13

Source: Reuters EcoWin
Selected Weights in the UK Consumer Price Index
Total weights for the CPI = 1000. Source: Office of National Statistics

150

150

125

125

Housing, water and fuels

1996=100

100

100

Foods
75

75

Clothing and footwear
50

50

Alcohol, tobacco and narcotics
25

25

Education
0

0

03

04

05

06

07

08

09

10

11

12

13

Source: UK Statistics Commission
UK Inflation and Crude Oil Prices
Annual % change in the Consumer Price Index and the world crude price

US dollars per barrel of oil

150

150

Crude Oil Price
100

100

50

50

0

0

6.0

6.0

Consumer Price Inflation
5.0

4.0

Percent

5.0

4.0

3.0

3.0

2.0

2.0

1.0

1.0

0.0

0.0

07

08

09

10

11

12

13

Source: UK Statistics Commission and IPE

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Inflation charts

  • 1. Consumer Price Inflation for the UK Economy Percent Annual percentage change in the Consumer Price Index 5.5 5.5 5.0 5.0 4.5 4.5 4.0 4.0 3.5 3.5 3.0 3.0 2.5 2.5 2.0 2.0 CPI Inflation target = 2% 1.5 1.5 1.0 1.0 0.5 0.5 0.0 0.0 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 Source: UK Statistics Commission
  • 2. Inflation Expectations Bank of England/NOP, how do you expect prices to change over the next 12 months? 6.0 5.0 5.0 4.0 Percent 6.0 4.0 3.0 3.0 2.0 2.0 1.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 06 07 08 09 10 11 How do you expect prices to change over the next 12 months? United Kingdom, Consumer Prices, By Commodity, All items (CPI), Chg Y/Y Q1 Q3 12 Q1 13 Source: Bank of England
  • 3. Consumer Price Inflation in Europe and the UK Percent Annual percentage change in consumer prices 6 6 UK 5 5 4 4 3 3 2 2 1 1 Euro Zone 0 0 -1 -1 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 Source: Reuters EcoWin
  • 4. Changing Real Prices for Goods and Services Retail Price Index, January 1988 = 100 600 500 500 400 Index 600 400 Cigarettes 300 Rail fares 300 Repairs 200 200 All goods and services Clothing and footwear 100 100 Electrical appliances 0 0 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 Source: Monthly Digest and Statistics
  • 5. Electricity and Gas Prices compared with changes in the CPI Index of consumer prices, 2005=100 250 250 225 225 200 200 Gas Prices 175 Index 175 150 150 Electricity Prices 125 125 Consumer Price Index (all items) 100 100 75 75 05 06 All items (CPI) 07 Gas 08 09 10 11 12 13 Electricity Source: Reuters EcoWin
  • 6. Consumer Price Inflation and Interest Rates for the UK Annual percentage change in the UK Consumer Price Index, the inflation target is 2% 6 6 Base Interest Rates 5 5 Percent 4 4 3 3 2 2 Consumer Price Inflation 1 1 0 0 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 Source: Reuters EcoWin
  • 7. Price Deflation for Selected Items Consumer price index, monthly value, 2005=100 170 170 160 160 150 150 140 140 Audio-Visual Equipment 130 120 Index 130 120 110 110 100 100 Clothing and Footwear 90 90 80 80 70 70 60 60 50 50 40 40 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 Source: Reuters EcoWin
  • 8. Consumer Price Inflation for Goods and Services Annual Percentage Change in Prices 6 6 Inflation in Services 5 5 4 3 Percent 4 3 2 2 1 1 0 0 -1 -1 -2 Inflation in Goods -2 -3 -3 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 Source: Reuters EcoWin
  • 9. Selected Weights in the UK Consumer Price Index Total weights for the CPI = 1000. Source: Office of National Statistics 150 150 125 125 Housing, water and fuels 1996=100 100 100 Foods 75 75 Clothing and footwear 50 50 Alcohol, tobacco and narcotics 25 25 Education 0 0 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 Source: UK Statistics Commission
  • 10. UK Inflation and Crude Oil Prices Annual % change in the Consumer Price Index and the world crude price US dollars per barrel of oil 150 150 Crude Oil Price 100 100 50 50 0 0 6.0 6.0 Consumer Price Inflation 5.0 4.0 Percent 5.0 4.0 3.0 3.0 2.0 2.0 1.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 Source: UK Statistics Commission and IPE