From Atmospheric Rivers to Rivers Of Debris: Coupling Extreme Precipitation Events, Glacial Retreat, Debris Flows, And Channel Changes On Mount Rainier, Washington [Gordon Grant]
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From Atmospheric Rivers to Rivers Of Debris: Coupling Extreme Precipitation Events, Glacial Retreat, Debris Flows, And Channel Changes On Mount Rainier, Washington. Presented by Gordon Grant at the "Perth II: Global Change and the World's Mountains" conference in Perth, Scotland in September 2010.
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From Atmospheric Rivers to Rivers Of Debris: Coupling Extreme Precipitation Events, Glacial Retreat, Debris Flows, And Channel Changes On Mount Rainier, Washington [Gordon Grant]
- 1. From atmospheric rivers… to rivers of debris. Gordon Grant PNW Research Station USDA Forest Service Anne Nolin, Lauren Parker, Beth Copeland Stephen Lancaster, Jonathan Ellinger Oregon State University Paul Kennard, Erin Tainer Ian Delaney Mt Rainier National Park Whitman College Coupling extreme precipitation events, glacial retreat, debris flows and channel changes on Mount Rainier, Washington
- 2. November 7, 2006 was a dark, stormy, and very wet night... Pineapple Express / Atmospheric River November 6, 2006
- 3. Mount Rainier Oct 31-Nov 7, 2006 NASA Earth Observatory
- 6. West Fork Middle Fork Hood Mount Hood Debris Flows Eliot Creek Hwy 35
- 8. 8 7 Mount Hood # of debris flows 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 1947 1952 1957 1962 1967 1972 1977 1982 1987 1992 1997 2002 2007 8 7 Mount Rainier # of debris flows 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 1947 1952 1957 1962 1967 1972 1977 1982 1987 1992 1997 2002 2007 Debris flow data from Driedger, Walder, Kennard
- 9. Cascadian Periglacial Debris Flow Project 1) Atmospheric rivers 2) Initiation of debris flows 3) Downstream Climate consequences Change?
- 10. Are debris flows correlated with Pineapple Express and Atmospheric River (PE/AR) events?
- 11. PE/AR = Lots of rain Pineapple Express event of November 5 and 6, 2006
- 12. + High Freezing levels Mount Rainier Freezing Altitudes Mt Rainier peak elevation Mountain peak elevations Rainier Hood
- 13. Associated with strong southwest flow Dettinger, 2004
- 14. PE/AR event non PE/AR event A debris flow was considered PE/AR related if a PE/AR event occurred on the same day as a debris flow, or on the day prior.
- 15. Mount Hood Classification of storms proceeding debris flows Mount Rainier Classification of storms proceeding debris flows Pineapple Express (PE) events (Dettinger, 2004) and Atmospheric Rivers (AR) (Neiman et al., 2008); Debris flow data from Driedger, Walder, Kennard
- 16. …and 3) Little snow cover 100 90 Mount Rainier 80 Antecedent SWE 70 SWE (mm) 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 86 88 89 90 91 92 92 03 05 06 26/ 0/15/ 11/8/ 10/2/ 11/4/ 9/7/ 9/19/ 0/19/ 9/28/ 11/5/ 10/ 1 1 One Day Prior to Debris Flow Event Date
- 17. RAIN SNOW DEPTH Iverson, pers comm.
- 18. Geomorphic factors associated with debris flow initiation All recent initiation sites are: • In areas exposed by recent (5-10 year) glacier retreat • Near glacier termini or debris-mantled stagnant ice • At heads of steep-walled gullies flanked by steep debris-mantled slopes
- 19. 2001-2006 debris flow initiation sites Glacier Extent 1913 2008
- 20. Ellinger, 2010
- 21. Fire Hose Effect? Photo: NPS • water concentrated in sub- or supra-glacial channels. • flow directed toward unstable, sediment mantled slopes below/adjacent to glaciers.
- 22. Source areas • Moraines • Ice-cored debris • Debris mantled slopes Runout Zone Deposition in larger channels Downstream channel response?
- 23. Aggradation rates within Mount Rainier National Park 1000.0 Recent Aggradataion Rates (cm/yr) 1) Evidence for widespread 100.0 aggradation (not incision) Sunshine Point Lower Van 10.0 Trump 2) Higher than White long-term River average in last decade 1.0 Longmire 1997-2006 2006 0.1 0.1 1.0 10.0 100.0 1000.0 Long term (1910-2006) Aggradation Rates (cm/yr)
- 24. 1951 1960 1978 1989 post 2006 storm Tahoma Creek
- 25. Aggradation rates downstream of Mount Rainier National Park Christopher Magirl, USGS
- 26. Effects of climate change? • Change in • Continued intensity/frequency of glacial PE/AR events retreat / fragmentation • Increased length of snow free period • Downstream signal?
- 27. No smoking gun yet… • Atmospheric events producing debris flows come in different flavors • Apparent recent increase in debris flows, but record is incomplete and potentially biased • Consistent pattern of aggradation within Mt Rainier National park itself • No consistent aggradation in larger rivers