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WiMAX:
Changing the Game
        CS RAO
   Chairman,WiMAX Forum,
        16th Sept 2009
Internet Based World that’s going
             mobile
         1.4 billion Internet users
            >150 million websites
10 hours of.new video uploaded to YouTube every minute
         1 5B web searches daily
                    1 billion IM users
         10 billion videos viewed every month

               100,
               100,000 blogs created daily
       ¾ of a trillion dollars online sales worldwide
       3 million Twitter messages sent every day
PC Based World that’s going
                    Mobile
Commerce   Information   Productivity   Entertainment   Medical   Communication Education
1.4 billion Internet users
            >150 million websites
            1.5B web searches daily
Worldwide
            10 hours of new video uploaded to YouTube every minute
            1 billion IM users
            10 billion videos viewed every month
            100,000 blogs created daily
            ¾ of a trillion dollars online sales worldwide
            3 million Twitter messages sent every day




            Internet users : 1.4M in 1998, 81 M in 2009 Jan
            YouTube : Total Users June ‘09 7.8 million
                        Average is 326 min/month
  India                 8% growth month on month
            Face book : Total Unique visitors June ‘09 5.9 million
                         Average is 285 min/month
                         10% month to month growth
Explosion of Video
                Total Broadband Videos Viewed Worldwide –
               ’07 over 98% of HTTP Requests Were Video
               Billions
                 40




                 30
 Average is                                                               Average is

  350                                                                      285
 min/month                                                                min/month
                 20


   9%                                                                      10%
growth month     10                                                      growth month
  to month                                                                 to month


                  0

                           2002   2003    2004     2005    2006   2007


                                    Source: ABI Research
Market Realities

 The Internet
 Always Connected
 Mobile Computing is a Must
 3 Mbps + Required
Rural Health   Education   eGovernance   MicroFinance   Video Safety




  WiMAX for India:
  The Right BB Connections for
  Young India ,
  Inclusive India and
  Prosperous India
Mobile WiMAX: the Best of Available Options

                                        Peak Data Rate            RAN Access
              Technology
                                  Downlink         Uplink         Latency

           WiMAX Release 1.0
                                   40 Mbps        10 Mbps*           40 ms
         TDD (2:1 Ratio) 10 MHz
Today         HSPA (today)         14 Mbps         2 Mbps          50-250 ms

                HSUPA              14 Mbps        5.8 Mbps         50-250 ms

          HSPA Evolved (Rel 7)
                                  28 Mbps        11.6 Mbps         50-250 ms
               MIMO 2x2

             HSPA Evolved
                                  42 Mbps        11.6 Mbps         50-250 ms
Future   MIMO+64QAM downlink

           LTE (Rel 8) 2x5MHz     43.2 Mbps      21.6 Mbps           30 ms

          Mobile WiMAX™ 2.0
                                        300+Mbps, 20MHz expected ’10/’11
              (802.16m)
Mobile Broadband Evolving to OFDMA + MIMO

                                      2007             2010


Cellular 3GPP
     1G             2G                3G                      LTE
    Analog         TDMA              WCDMA


Broadband Wireless - WiMAX
                              802.16d
                              802.16d        802.16e
                                             802.16e          802.16m


Wireless LAN - Wi-Fi
               Wi-
                       802.11a/b/g
                       802.11a/b/g           802.11n
                                             802.11n




                                      OFDMA + MIMO New Spectrum
                                            All-
                                            All-IP Core Network
WiMAX vs Other Technologies

                                                                                    Average File
                                                                                   Transfer Rates
 EV-
 EV-DO Rev. A                                                                        1.06 Mbps


 EV-
 EV-DO Rev. B                                                                        4.65 Mbps


UMTS/HSDPA                                                                           3.91 Mbps


Mobile WiMAX                                                                         14.1 Mbps


      Wi-
      Wi-Fi g                                                                        16 Mbps

                0.0   0.5   1.0   1.5    2.0     2.5     3.0     3.5   4.0   4.5   5.0 (MB)




                                   Source: WiMAX Forum White Paper
WIMAX Is The BEST Choice
 To Deliver The Future ...
           TODAY

    • Most Spectrally Efficient
    • All IP Network
    • Cost-Effective
        Equipment Choices
    •   Open Mobile Internet
        Business Model
WiMAX Delivers Highest Wireless & Mobile
               Broadband speeds

• Today, Average speeds capability of 6 Mbps DL&512Kbps UL
• Today Peak user speeds of 16Mbps DL&4Mbps UL .
• Delivers user Mobile BB services at 3times the 3G ,now
• 10 times scalability in performance with WiMAX releases like 802.16m
• Highest Spectral efficiency thus WiMAX is 4G at 3G costs now and today
• Operates in 2.3/2.5/3.5 Ghz bands already in just 2 years of it’s global
   launch

• Conforms to IMT 2000 & ITU-R standards
                         ITU-

• All devices and equipments to date conform to TDD,Wave 2 Certified
• It is All IP,Open Stds Complaint and supports Web2.0 & Streaming
WiMAX Global Momentum
 Continues to Build
                                                                                                                                           Deployments2
                                                                                                                                           Over 450 Planned &
                                                                                                                           75              Commercial Fixed + Mobile
                               48                                                                  66                                      Networks In Over 135
                                                                                                                                           Countries

Price / Performance3                                                                                                  18
2-3x Today’s 3G Solutions And                                                                        99                                         73
Scalability To 10x In The Future

                                                   96
                                                                                    Vendors1
                                                                                    Over 20 Infrastructure Vendors
                                                                                    Almost 100 Companies Offering
                                                                                    Over 350 Client Device Designs!

  1. Infrastructure: ABI Research, 2009; Client devices: Orr Technologies, 2009.
  2. Informa Telecoms & Media, 2009
  3. 2-3x based upon actual network performance in Korea, US, Russia, Taiwan & Japan; 10x per IEEE 802.16m Systems Requirements Document
Mobile WiMAX Being Deployed in
              14 of Top 15 PC Markets
                                                                             USA
1.2 billion PCs deployed worldwide                                           China
Top 15 represent 71% of total                                                Japan
                                                                             Germany
All countries have 2.3/2.5 or 3.5GHz
                                                                             UK
16 IA OEMS supporting WiMAX today                                            France
Clear / US: 35+ models from 6 OEMs                                           Russia
                                                                             Italy
− 20+ available now
                                                                             South Korea
UQ / Japan: 14 OEMs commit to embed                                          Brazil
Russia: 30 models available from 6 OEMs                                      India
                                                                             Canada
100 notebook + netbook models
                                                                             Mexico
by end of year
                                                                             Australia
                                                                             Spain




                                Source: Computer Industry Almanac, Jan ‘09
Mobile Voice
                                          vs.
                         Mobile Internet

                               Traffic Equivalents*
                           1 Smartphone = 30 Handsets
                             1 Laptop = 450 Handsets

                         A Network Optimized For Mobile
                             Voice Cannot Handle High           1-5 Mbps Burst Traffic
~ 10 Kbps Constant Rate
                            Numbers Of Mobile Internet
                                       Users
                              More Spectrum Needed
              More Backhaul And Different Network Architecture Required

       Mobile Internet Requires a Technology Revolution
                                     * Source: Cisco, 2009
WiMAX Enables New Mobile Broadband
               Experience
  3G PC Data Usage                                            WiMAX Data Usage
                                                                                 10%
          15%          20%                                      25%
                                                                                INACTIVE
        +3GB / mo.
                      INACTIVE                                >10GB / mo.

                                                                                           25%
  15%                                                                                 0-500MB / mo.
1-3GB / mo.


                     50%                                              40%
                < 1GB / mo.                                           500MB-
                                                                     10GB/mo.




    • Data usage expands when true broadband becomes available
    • WiMAX capable of providing primary broadband, not just mobile
    • 3G cost/bit and performance unable to meet BB experience expectations

                              3G Source: Major 3G service provider
                              WiMAX Source: Major WiMAX service provider
Global Vision:
   1 Billion “Connected Mobile Clients” in 5 Years
Core Business                       Strategic Growth Areas

                      CE             Mobile            Low-
                                                       Low-Cost          Embedded
  Client PCs       (Internet)        Internet            PCs
                                     Devices




Windows, Mac OS   Microsoft Windows / Moblin Linux-based OS / Services Port of Choice
                                             Linux-




 One Architecture Across Multiple Mobile Client Platforms
PC Access to the Internet
        Has Gone Mobile …
MU
400
                                         Notebook
                                         Desktop
300



200




100




  0
      2003 2004 2005   2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

                                         Forecast

                           Source: Gartner
… And Mobile PCs Will Be
     Connected to the Internet
M Units                                                          % WAN

                                Percent Connected to WAN

             Notebook
             Netbook




          WAN Connection is Essential
              Source: In-Stat . ABI & Intel Internal Estimates
… And These New Devices and Applications
Are Rapidly Overloading Existing Networks
Commerce   Information   Productivity   Entertainment   Medical   Communication   Education
Robust Dual- Mode HSDPA / WIBRO DEVICE Eco system is established
       Dual-


    PCMCIA Card

    USB Dongles
        WiBro
        WiBro + HSDPA DBDM
        WiBro + T-DMB (mobile TV)
           DBDM, WiBro + MP3,
          WiBro + Flash memory
    Handsets
        Triple mode (WiBro, EVDO, T-
           DMB), Voice call thru CDMA
    Ultra Mobile PCs
        WiBro, WiFi, WiBro, Bluetooth 2.0
        WiBro, CDMA, 1xEVDO, Bluetooth

    Embedded notebooks
        Samsung: NT-Q35/C200
        LGE: X-Note C1
A Diverse Offering of
WiMAX Devices Available NOW
New affordable ways to compute & access the internet
     Intel’s ATOM processor has transformed devices so that they are small, smart & efficent
                                          affordable




             Nettops                             Netbooks                   Mobile Internet devices
    Affordable desktop computing for   Internet companion device for easy     Full access to the internet in a
       easy access to the internet            access to the internet        pocket able form factor (with voice)


            Internet content                  Internet content                       Entertainment
              consumption                       consumption                           Information
             E-mail and IM                     E-mail and IM                        Communication
              Social media                      Social media                          Productivity


    First time buyer                         PC density                          Smart phone
         device                                                                 replacement*
                                                                                       *2010 availability
                                                                 Personal
     Shared
A range of NetTop form factor WiMAX devices




              *Other brand and names are the property of their respective owners
By 2015 … INDIA would have ….

  500 M                   Internet users


  100 M                   Broadband connections


  100 M                    Broadband Enabled devices

         2007      2008         2009      2010   2011   2012



 users   bb connected devices          bb subs
CLEAR
           WiMAX
Portland

           Launched in
           U.S.
“ We actually welcome the use of heavy bandwidth data
                      applications that conventional 3G network operators may
                      discourage or simply can’t support.
                               Scott Richardson
                               Chief Strategy Officer, Clearwire




    WiMAX-Ready     Clear    Clear USB   Clear Voice   Clear Mobile Broadband   Clear
     LAPTOPS       MODEM      MODEM      ADAPTER           ENTERTAINER          SPOT



•   Over 35 notebook models from 6 manufacturers with over 20 in retail today
•   Plug in your Clear access device and surf, often in less than 60 seconds
•   Targeting coverage in over 80 markets by end of 2010
•   Actual (typical) download speeds of 2-4 Mbps
Scartel’s Yota Service
    Targeting over 40 of the largest cities in Russia
    Carrying over 500TB of traffic per month TODAY
                   500TB
    Average subscriber is consuming 9.5GB per month!
   − Twice that of DSL/Cable subscribers
   − Twice that of typical monthly data limit set by operators (5GB)
                                                               (5
    HTC GSM / WiMAX dual mode handset




MOSCOW                              SAINT-PETERSBURG
OUTDOOR COVERAGE




• First Mobile WiMAX network live in
  Europe
• World’s first 3.5GHz carrier              INDOOR COVERAGE
• Installed over 100 base stations in 2
  months; over 170 today
• Nationwide coverage expected in 3 years
• 8 Mbps downlink rates
Packet One, Malaysia:
• Over 500 new subscribers / day
• World’s largest 2.3 GHz deployment
  outside of So. Korea
• Wireless @ KL provides free access to
  over 70,000 users
       70,
Faster and Cheaper:
 Live speed tests on notebooks have reached about 16 Mbps down and 4
 Mbps up, as simple, flat-rate pricing undercuts all current HSPA offers
                     flat-



• 13 PC manufacturers announced
  plans to offer embedded WiMAX
  notebooks
• Launched with 3 major electronics
  retailer MVNOs
• Unique railway and mobile
  application service offerings
Owner: SMiller




• Pre-commercial network shows 3x the
  performance of HSPA
• 30 MHz of spectrum in 2.5 GHz
• Start in Taipei and then expand into
  northern Taiwan
 Phase 1: Serve over 250,000 subscribers across 80,000 villages
                         250,                         80,
 Phase 2: Serve 675,000 villages and ~ 1.1 million subscribers
                    675,
 E-governance, telemedicine, distance education, e-travel, e-chaupal, e-
                                                     e-      e-chaupal, e-
  legal services, and e-media access
                      e-
 Plan to cover all urban India – 3 states already launched via franchisees
WiMAX Embedded Laptops & Netbooks
              Scaling to over 150 Models by EOY 2009

                       16 PC OEMs Have Announced Plans to
                           Embed Intel’s WiMAX Modules

Intel TEM Focus                         U.S.A.
                           35+
                           35+ certified models from 6 OEMs
                      20+
                      20+ models available in U.S. Channels NOW

                                        Japan
                         14 OEMs committed to embed WiMAX

                                        Russia
                              30+
                              30+ Models Available from 6
                                       OEMs
What is Intel Doing to Enable WiMAX?




              Wimax Silicon                Ecosystem Development                              Interoperability Testing


                                   Intel Is Investing In …




                             Equipment and
Silicon Companies                                                         Service Providers                      Spectrum Auctions
                        Infrastructure Companies


                              Other brands and names are the property of their respective owners.
WiMAX and the Open Patent Alliance
WiMAX Today. A Vibrant Ecosystem




         Other brands and names are the property of their respective owners.
WiMAX Business Case Process
                                           Operator/ Market Inputs
                                               CapEx                  OpEx                 Market
                                               Spectrum         Tower Rental           Market Definition
                                            lease/purchase
           Operator/Market Inputs
                                            Site Acquisition        Backhaul          Service Definition /
           Operating Expenditure             and Planning                               Usage Models

           Capital Expenditure
                                               Cell Site            Marketing         Penetration Model
           Demographic Information            Electronics
                                           Backhaul and Core       Subscriber               Churn
                                               Network             Acquisition
                                             Maintenance            Customer            Coverage and
                                                                    Retention             Capacity
                                           OC12 Provisioning   Administrative /         Throughput /
                                                                 Overhead             Oversubscription
           Air Link Components
           RF Planning                      Airlink Components
           CPE Cost                              CPE                 Airlink                  RF
           RAN                               CPE Subsidy       Channel Model            Cell Site Costs

                                     RAN    CPE Installation       Total Traffic       Site Acquisition
CPE Cost                                   CPE Refresh Rate    Channel Model              Antenna’s
                                                                   Mix
                                              Software         Traffic Growth              Cabling
                                             Maintenance
            Outputs
                                           Software Upgrade                           Core Infrastructure
            Financial
            Market
                                            Outputs
            Benchmark
                                                  Free Cash Flow                         NPV
                                               Discounted Cash Flow                EBITDA Multiple

                                                 Normalized OpEx                   Normalized CapEx
 38
                                                       CCPU                             CPGA
Executive Summary of a WiMax India Operator
• Top 250cities of India

     in phase 1 coverage in first 4 years
• WiMAX business model by WiMax Forum and strategic ecosystem players
     Link /system level studies, real life device performance
     Local operating expenses, ecosystem , device availability
     Market data collected from vendors, carriers etc
   one of the most attractive case for wireless broadband driven by
    unique factors :
     population density of India, reduces coverage need BTS
     Presence of Cell towers reduces cost of putting new sites
     Attractive CapEx outlay &Attractive device prices
     Availability of fiber reduces OpEx/backhaul cost of the model
                                    OpEx/backhaul
     Very low Cost Per Gross Add
     Prepaid model reduces working capital requirements
     Access to one of the largest middle class populations of the world
     Embedded Intel NB push will enable market even further -no subsidy market
     Abundant international bandwidth available at competitive rates

                                                                 39
Capacity of Single Operator for WiMax in 20 Mhz

 Single WiMax Operator in India
    •potential to serve upto 28 Million WiMax Subscribers meeting TRAI
    specified norms


Subscribers will range from
    • users of embedded Notebooks, Desktops, PC Cards, Smart
      phones and Enriched phones



 A New range of devices such as Netbooks , Nettops will Likely
Push WiMax adoption Even Higher




                                                              40
SLA Indicators considered in Biz Case
•   ARPU offering assumes unlimited ( all you can eat) nomadic and mobile broadband data plan
•   Model assumes no incremental revenue from VOIP
•   Content /services revenue not considered into business case, only subscription revenue taken
    into account
•   Model does not take into account wholesale/resale offerings on MVNO basis
•   ARPU does not include VAT
•   50% decline in ARPU over 10 Years is assumed, while QOS on a per subscriber basis is
    consistently increased
•   Blended ARPU ~ $17 , reducing to ~$8 by year 10
Financials of WiMax Operator Business Case
              Parameter                                     Values
 Coverage Timeline              Phase 1 : 2010 to 2013, Phase 2 : 2014-2016, Phase 3: 2016-
                                2018
 Phase 1 Coverage               Top 250 cities Covered ( 2010 to 2013)

 Coverage BTS – Phase I         ~14K Coverage BTS required for covering 17K sq Km.
                                Estimated Subscriber Capacity of 28 Mil in the network

 Network Loading                Network Loading of 40% assumed in the business model at
                                the end of Phase I – End of Year 2013


 EBITDA Breakeven ( Phase 1)    Year 1


 Cum FCF Breakeven ( Phase 1)   Year 3
 Discounted CF Breakeven        Year 4
 ( Phase 1)
 Cumulative CapEx ( Phase 1)    $ 600 Mil - end of year 2013

 Total Revenue ( Phase 1)       $1.4 Billion – end of year 2013
WiMAX


No longer next generation; here and now
Thank You
Backup
LTE Claims & Reality



              UPGRADE                     FALSE Complete forklift upgrade from RAN to
                                          Core
        LTE is a simple upgrade to 3G



                                          FALSE LTE needs wide FDD channels, or must
          SPECTRUM                        re-farm existing spectrum w/o compromising current
           LTE has plenty of spectrum     services



                                          TBD Until IPR is resolved, depth and breadth
    DEVICE COST                           of devices suppliers limited. Chipsets burdened
                                          with legacy multimode.
      Plethora of devices will be there


                                          FALSE Standard not complete. Multi-year
                    TIMING                WiMAX Time-to-Market advantage and roadmap
                                          to .16m will provide a sustained lead over
  LTE will be ready when the market is    alternatives.
                                ready
Owner: ML

                     WIMAX in Top PC Markets
   U.S.       Clearwire, DigitalBridge, Towerstream, Xanadaoo & dozens of others

  Japan       UQ soft launch Feb – fastest global network with up to 40Mbps downlink

 Germany      DBD in market today with fixed/city wide hotspot; Half dozen others in service or planned

    UK        Freedom 4, UK Broadband, Irish Broadband & almost dozen others in market today;
                  2.5GHz auction this year
  France      Bollore deploying fixed and city wide hotspots; 5 others operators across France

  Russia      13 carriers include Scartel & Comstar deploying Fixed/Mobile networks

   Italy      10 carriers including AriaDSL launching fixed/city wide hotspots

South Korea   KT & SKT in market today with mobile

  Brazil      Embartel, Telefonica, Brasil Telecom, TVA & others in market today with fixed, growing
                 city wide hotspots to mobile
   India      BSNL deploying today in 25,000 villages; auction in H1’09 for 2.3/5GHz

  Mexico      7 carriers including MVS deploying today fixed/city wide hotspot

 Australia    6 carriers today including Unwired expanding coverage

  Spain       Iberbanda & NeoSky deploying fixed, city wide hotspot and mobile
Data Traffic is Taking Over Voice Networks

                Percentage of Overall Traffic
  100%
  100%

   80%
                 DATA
   60%

   40%
   40%
                 VOICE
   20%

   0%
         2006    2007    2008              2009   2010   2011


                           Source: Cisco
Mobile WiMAX: the Best of Available Options
                                                            Peak Data Rate              RAN Access
         Technology
                                                   Downlink                    Uplink   Latency

         WiMAX Rel 1.0 (.16e)                      40 Mbps               10 Mbps*
                                                                                          40 ms
         TDD (2:1 Ratio) 10 MHz                    2x2 MIMO              1x2 cMIMO
Today    HSPA (today) 2x5 MHz                       14 Mbps                2 Mbps       50-250 ms

         HSUPA     2x5 MHz                          14 Mbps               5.8 Mbps      50-250 ms
         HSPA+ 2x5 MHz Rel 7
                                                    21 Mbps               5.8 Mbps      50-250 ms
         + 64 QAM
         HSPA+ 2x5 MHz
                                                    21 Mbps
                                                    42                   11.6Mbps
                                                                         5.8 Mbps       50-250 ms
Future   MIMO*+64QAMdownlink
         MIMO+64QAM downlink
         HSPA+ 2x10 MHz Rel 9
                                                    42 Mbps
                                                    84                   11.6 Mbps
                                                                          23 Mbps           ?
         MIMO*+64QAMdownlink
         MIMO+64QAM downlink
         LTE (Rel 8) 2x5MHz
                                                  43.2 Mbps              21.6 Mbps        30 ms
         2x2 MIMO
         Mobile WiMAX™ 2.0                        300+ Mbps               112 Mbps
                                                                                         < 30 ms
         (802.16m) 2x20 MHz                       4x4 MIMO                2x4 MIMO

         * Signals Ahead, HSPA+: So Many Options, So Little Time, April 2009
Lower IPR is Key to Device
Proliferation
  Relative
   IPR         New
   Cost      Entrants

                         Don’t
                         Enter


  Maximum
    Cost                                Do
  Bearable                             Enter

                                                 Leading
                                               Incumbents


                          Minimum                Relative
                        IPR Strength
                          Needed               IPR Strength
Mobile Broadband Technology
        Open    Vision      Well defined interfaces
                            At all levels for a simple
    Mobile Internet
      Services                 All IP Architecture




                                                                               3GPP/3GPP2 Specifications)
                                                                               (Interworking supported in
                                                          NWG Specifications
                                                            WiMAX Forum
  Flexible Deployment         IETF based protocols
      Architectures




                                                                                GPP/3GPP2
                              Minimized number of
  All-
  All-IP Core Networks        Layers and protocols
 with Interworking for
backend systems re-use
                  re-
                            Message based control
                            Signaling for flexibility

  All-
  All-IP Flexible RANs
                            Retail model enabled by




                                                         Standards
                             Industry certification




                                                          profiles
                                                           802.16


                                                          WiMAX
                                                            IEEE
                                                           802.

                                                              +
  Inexpensive Radios             OFDM+MIMO to
                               Optimize bandwidth
                                    efficiency
 Innovation at all levels
WiMAX or LTE = Same Level of
              Upgrade
   2G, 3G Network
   (GSM, EV-DO, HSPA)
                                                                                                     2G, 3G Core
                                                                                                        Network
                                                                                   SGSN

                                                                                               MGW
                                                                                                          GGSN

                                                                                        Upgrade core network to
New data overlay network                                                                 support more IP data
                                                                                                traffic
   4G Network:                                                                                            All IP Core
   (WiMAX or LTE)
                                                                                  SAE
                                                                                  GW
                                                                                                                 PCRF
                                                                                         HSS
                                                                                                MME/UPE    OCS


Radio Access Network (RAN):                                                  Core Network Equipment
  > 90-95% of new CapEx*                                                      < 10% of new CapEx*


    Both WiMAX & LTE require new RAN equipment & devices.
             Neither is “backward compatible” to 3G.
      Both can interwork well with existing 2G, 3G networks.
     * Intel estimates. Percentage varies based upon the operator’s existing network.
Why do we need +2 Mbps Mobile broadband?
                             +2
          Internet is getting more complex with rich multimedia
       Mobile Internet Trends

            Web pages getting more complex
               Avg web page size has tripled in past 5 years
               +75% HTTP requests from images,
                 75%
               +90% of web pages have images today
                 90%



            Video and HD are here
               Average file size on the web : 10 MBytes
               Video accounts for ~99% of all bytes transferred
                                    ~99%
                                                                                                             Laptop users account for
               And they are growing in size and length; 90% of
                                                         90%                                                      >80% of KT WiBro
                videos are +3min, up from under 1 min in ‘97
                            +3                            ‘97
                                                                                                                    data access*
               Quality is degrading


       Thus Mobile Internet Requires Multi-Mbps Connection Per User and
                    WiMAX meets and far exceeds this need
Other brands and names are the property of their respective owners. *Source: KT Q1’08. *Forrester Research
What is the Wireless Broadband killer application?*




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The Mobile Internet experience is not simple Radio Access


          4G RF Network

              +
          4G Devices
                                          WiMAX
              +                         Customer
                                         Customer
                                         Experience
                                        Experience
          Multimedia Content

              +

        Open Applications

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WiMAX: The Right BB Connections for Young India, Inclusive India and Prosperous India

  • 1. WiMAX: Changing the Game CS RAO Chairman,WiMAX Forum, 16th Sept 2009
  • 2. Internet Based World that’s going mobile 1.4 billion Internet users >150 million websites 10 hours of.new video uploaded to YouTube every minute 1 5B web searches daily 1 billion IM users 10 billion videos viewed every month 100, 100,000 blogs created daily ¾ of a trillion dollars online sales worldwide 3 million Twitter messages sent every day
  • 3. PC Based World that’s going Mobile Commerce Information Productivity Entertainment Medical Communication Education
  • 4. 1.4 billion Internet users >150 million websites 1.5B web searches daily Worldwide 10 hours of new video uploaded to YouTube every minute 1 billion IM users 10 billion videos viewed every month 100,000 blogs created daily ¾ of a trillion dollars online sales worldwide 3 million Twitter messages sent every day Internet users : 1.4M in 1998, 81 M in 2009 Jan YouTube : Total Users June ‘09 7.8 million Average is 326 min/month India 8% growth month on month Face book : Total Unique visitors June ‘09 5.9 million Average is 285 min/month 10% month to month growth
  • 5. Explosion of Video Total Broadband Videos Viewed Worldwide – ’07 over 98% of HTTP Requests Were Video Billions 40 30 Average is Average is 350 285 min/month min/month 20 9% 10% growth month 10 growth month to month to month 0 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 Source: ABI Research
  • 6. Market Realities  The Internet  Always Connected  Mobile Computing is a Must  3 Mbps + Required
  • 7. Rural Health Education eGovernance MicroFinance Video Safety WiMAX for India: The Right BB Connections for Young India , Inclusive India and Prosperous India
  • 8. Mobile WiMAX: the Best of Available Options Peak Data Rate RAN Access Technology Downlink Uplink Latency WiMAX Release 1.0 40 Mbps 10 Mbps* 40 ms TDD (2:1 Ratio) 10 MHz Today HSPA (today) 14 Mbps 2 Mbps 50-250 ms HSUPA 14 Mbps 5.8 Mbps 50-250 ms HSPA Evolved (Rel 7) 28 Mbps 11.6 Mbps 50-250 ms MIMO 2x2 HSPA Evolved 42 Mbps 11.6 Mbps 50-250 ms Future MIMO+64QAM downlink LTE (Rel 8) 2x5MHz 43.2 Mbps 21.6 Mbps 30 ms Mobile WiMAX™ 2.0 300+Mbps, 20MHz expected ’10/’11 (802.16m)
  • 9. Mobile Broadband Evolving to OFDMA + MIMO 2007 2010 Cellular 3GPP 1G 2G 3G LTE Analog TDMA WCDMA Broadband Wireless - WiMAX 802.16d 802.16d 802.16e 802.16e 802.16m Wireless LAN - Wi-Fi Wi- 802.11a/b/g 802.11a/b/g 802.11n 802.11n OFDMA + MIMO New Spectrum All- All-IP Core Network
  • 10. WiMAX vs Other Technologies Average File Transfer Rates EV- EV-DO Rev. A 1.06 Mbps EV- EV-DO Rev. B 4.65 Mbps UMTS/HSDPA 3.91 Mbps Mobile WiMAX 14.1 Mbps Wi- Wi-Fi g 16 Mbps 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0 (MB) Source: WiMAX Forum White Paper
  • 11. WIMAX Is The BEST Choice To Deliver The Future ... TODAY • Most Spectrally Efficient • All IP Network • Cost-Effective Equipment Choices • Open Mobile Internet Business Model
  • 12. WiMAX Delivers Highest Wireless & Mobile Broadband speeds • Today, Average speeds capability of 6 Mbps DL&512Kbps UL • Today Peak user speeds of 16Mbps DL&4Mbps UL . • Delivers user Mobile BB services at 3times the 3G ,now • 10 times scalability in performance with WiMAX releases like 802.16m • Highest Spectral efficiency thus WiMAX is 4G at 3G costs now and today • Operates in 2.3/2.5/3.5 Ghz bands already in just 2 years of it’s global launch • Conforms to IMT 2000 & ITU-R standards ITU- • All devices and equipments to date conform to TDD,Wave 2 Certified • It is All IP,Open Stds Complaint and supports Web2.0 & Streaming
  • 13. WiMAX Global Momentum Continues to Build Deployments2 Over 450 Planned & 75 Commercial Fixed + Mobile 48 66 Networks In Over 135 Countries Price / Performance3 18 2-3x Today’s 3G Solutions And 99 73 Scalability To 10x In The Future 96 Vendors1 Over 20 Infrastructure Vendors Almost 100 Companies Offering Over 350 Client Device Designs! 1. Infrastructure: ABI Research, 2009; Client devices: Orr Technologies, 2009. 2. Informa Telecoms & Media, 2009 3. 2-3x based upon actual network performance in Korea, US, Russia, Taiwan & Japan; 10x per IEEE 802.16m Systems Requirements Document
  • 14. Mobile WiMAX Being Deployed in 14 of Top 15 PC Markets USA 1.2 billion PCs deployed worldwide China Top 15 represent 71% of total Japan Germany All countries have 2.3/2.5 or 3.5GHz UK 16 IA OEMS supporting WiMAX today France Clear / US: 35+ models from 6 OEMs Russia Italy − 20+ available now South Korea UQ / Japan: 14 OEMs commit to embed Brazil Russia: 30 models available from 6 OEMs India Canada 100 notebook + netbook models Mexico by end of year Australia Spain Source: Computer Industry Almanac, Jan ‘09
  • 15. Mobile Voice vs. Mobile Internet Traffic Equivalents* 1 Smartphone = 30 Handsets 1 Laptop = 450 Handsets A Network Optimized For Mobile Voice Cannot Handle High 1-5 Mbps Burst Traffic ~ 10 Kbps Constant Rate Numbers Of Mobile Internet Users More Spectrum Needed More Backhaul And Different Network Architecture Required Mobile Internet Requires a Technology Revolution * Source: Cisco, 2009
  • 16. WiMAX Enables New Mobile Broadband Experience 3G PC Data Usage WiMAX Data Usage 10% 15% 20% 25% INACTIVE +3GB / mo. INACTIVE >10GB / mo. 25% 15% 0-500MB / mo. 1-3GB / mo. 50% 40% < 1GB / mo. 500MB- 10GB/mo. • Data usage expands when true broadband becomes available • WiMAX capable of providing primary broadband, not just mobile • 3G cost/bit and performance unable to meet BB experience expectations 3G Source: Major 3G service provider WiMAX Source: Major WiMAX service provider
  • 17. Global Vision: 1 Billion “Connected Mobile Clients” in 5 Years Core Business Strategic Growth Areas CE Mobile Low- Low-Cost Embedded Client PCs (Internet) Internet PCs Devices Windows, Mac OS Microsoft Windows / Moblin Linux-based OS / Services Port of Choice Linux- One Architecture Across Multiple Mobile Client Platforms
  • 18. PC Access to the Internet Has Gone Mobile … MU 400 Notebook Desktop 300 200 100 0 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Forecast Source: Gartner
  • 19. … And Mobile PCs Will Be Connected to the Internet M Units % WAN Percent Connected to WAN Notebook Netbook WAN Connection is Essential Source: In-Stat . ABI & Intel Internal Estimates
  • 20. … And These New Devices and Applications Are Rapidly Overloading Existing Networks Commerce Information Productivity Entertainment Medical Communication Education
  • 21. Robust Dual- Mode HSDPA / WIBRO DEVICE Eco system is established Dual-  PCMCIA Card  USB Dongles  WiBro  WiBro + HSDPA DBDM  WiBro + T-DMB (mobile TV) DBDM, WiBro + MP3,  WiBro + Flash memory  Handsets  Triple mode (WiBro, EVDO, T- DMB), Voice call thru CDMA  Ultra Mobile PCs  WiBro, WiFi, WiBro, Bluetooth 2.0  WiBro, CDMA, 1xEVDO, Bluetooth  Embedded notebooks  Samsung: NT-Q35/C200  LGE: X-Note C1
  • 22. A Diverse Offering of WiMAX Devices Available NOW
  • 23. New affordable ways to compute & access the internet Intel’s ATOM processor has transformed devices so that they are small, smart & efficent affordable Nettops Netbooks Mobile Internet devices Affordable desktop computing for Internet companion device for easy Full access to the internet in a easy access to the internet access to the internet pocket able form factor (with voice) Internet content Internet content Entertainment consumption consumption Information E-mail and IM E-mail and IM Communication Social media Social media Productivity First time buyer PC density Smart phone device replacement* *2010 availability Personal Shared
  • 24. A range of NetTop form factor WiMAX devices *Other brand and names are the property of their respective owners
  • 25. By 2015 … INDIA would have …. 500 M Internet users 100 M Broadband connections 100 M Broadband Enabled devices 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 users bb connected devices bb subs
  • 26. CLEAR WiMAX Portland Launched in U.S.
  • 27. “ We actually welcome the use of heavy bandwidth data applications that conventional 3G network operators may discourage or simply can’t support. Scott Richardson Chief Strategy Officer, Clearwire WiMAX-Ready Clear Clear USB Clear Voice Clear Mobile Broadband Clear LAPTOPS MODEM MODEM ADAPTER ENTERTAINER SPOT • Over 35 notebook models from 6 manufacturers with over 20 in retail today • Plug in your Clear access device and surf, often in less than 60 seconds • Targeting coverage in over 80 markets by end of 2010 • Actual (typical) download speeds of 2-4 Mbps
  • 28. Scartel’s Yota Service  Targeting over 40 of the largest cities in Russia  Carrying over 500TB of traffic per month TODAY 500TB  Average subscriber is consuming 9.5GB per month! − Twice that of DSL/Cable subscribers − Twice that of typical monthly data limit set by operators (5GB) (5  HTC GSM / WiMAX dual mode handset MOSCOW SAINT-PETERSBURG
  • 29. OUTDOOR COVERAGE • First Mobile WiMAX network live in Europe • World’s first 3.5GHz carrier INDOOR COVERAGE • Installed over 100 base stations in 2 months; over 170 today • Nationwide coverage expected in 3 years • 8 Mbps downlink rates
  • 30. Packet One, Malaysia: • Over 500 new subscribers / day • World’s largest 2.3 GHz deployment outside of So. Korea • Wireless @ KL provides free access to over 70,000 users 70,
  • 31. Faster and Cheaper: Live speed tests on notebooks have reached about 16 Mbps down and 4 Mbps up, as simple, flat-rate pricing undercuts all current HSPA offers flat- • 13 PC manufacturers announced plans to offer embedded WiMAX notebooks • Launched with 3 major electronics retailer MVNOs • Unique railway and mobile application service offerings
  • 32. Owner: SMiller • Pre-commercial network shows 3x the performance of HSPA • 30 MHz of spectrum in 2.5 GHz • Start in Taipei and then expand into northern Taiwan
  • 33.  Phase 1: Serve over 250,000 subscribers across 80,000 villages 250, 80,  Phase 2: Serve 675,000 villages and ~ 1.1 million subscribers 675,  E-governance, telemedicine, distance education, e-travel, e-chaupal, e- e- e-chaupal, e- legal services, and e-media access e-  Plan to cover all urban India – 3 states already launched via franchisees
  • 34. WiMAX Embedded Laptops & Netbooks Scaling to over 150 Models by EOY 2009 16 PC OEMs Have Announced Plans to Embed Intel’s WiMAX Modules Intel TEM Focus U.S.A. 35+ 35+ certified models from 6 OEMs 20+ 20+ models available in U.S. Channels NOW Japan 14 OEMs committed to embed WiMAX Russia 30+ 30+ Models Available from 6 OEMs
  • 35. What is Intel Doing to Enable WiMAX? Wimax Silicon Ecosystem Development Interoperability Testing Intel Is Investing In … Equipment and Silicon Companies Service Providers Spectrum Auctions Infrastructure Companies Other brands and names are the property of their respective owners.
  • 36. WiMAX and the Open Patent Alliance
  • 37. WiMAX Today. A Vibrant Ecosystem Other brands and names are the property of their respective owners.
  • 38. WiMAX Business Case Process Operator/ Market Inputs CapEx OpEx Market Spectrum Tower Rental Market Definition lease/purchase Operator/Market Inputs Site Acquisition Backhaul Service Definition / Operating Expenditure and Planning Usage Models Capital Expenditure Cell Site Marketing Penetration Model Demographic Information Electronics Backhaul and Core Subscriber Churn Network Acquisition Maintenance Customer Coverage and Retention Capacity OC12 Provisioning Administrative / Throughput / Overhead Oversubscription Air Link Components RF Planning Airlink Components CPE Cost CPE Airlink RF RAN CPE Subsidy Channel Model Cell Site Costs RAN CPE Installation Total Traffic Site Acquisition CPE Cost CPE Refresh Rate Channel Model Antenna’s Mix Software Traffic Growth Cabling Maintenance Outputs Software Upgrade Core Infrastructure Financial Market Outputs Benchmark Free Cash Flow NPV Discounted Cash Flow EBITDA Multiple Normalized OpEx Normalized CapEx 38 CCPU CPGA
  • 39. Executive Summary of a WiMax India Operator • Top 250cities of India  in phase 1 coverage in first 4 years • WiMAX business model by WiMax Forum and strategic ecosystem players  Link /system level studies, real life device performance  Local operating expenses, ecosystem , device availability  Market data collected from vendors, carriers etc  one of the most attractive case for wireless broadband driven by unique factors :  population density of India, reduces coverage need BTS  Presence of Cell towers reduces cost of putting new sites  Attractive CapEx outlay &Attractive device prices  Availability of fiber reduces OpEx/backhaul cost of the model OpEx/backhaul  Very low Cost Per Gross Add  Prepaid model reduces working capital requirements  Access to one of the largest middle class populations of the world  Embedded Intel NB push will enable market even further -no subsidy market  Abundant international bandwidth available at competitive rates 39
  • 40. Capacity of Single Operator for WiMax in 20 Mhz  Single WiMax Operator in India •potential to serve upto 28 Million WiMax Subscribers meeting TRAI specified norms Subscribers will range from • users of embedded Notebooks, Desktops, PC Cards, Smart phones and Enriched phones  A New range of devices such as Netbooks , Nettops will Likely Push WiMax adoption Even Higher 40
  • 41. SLA Indicators considered in Biz Case • ARPU offering assumes unlimited ( all you can eat) nomadic and mobile broadband data plan • Model assumes no incremental revenue from VOIP • Content /services revenue not considered into business case, only subscription revenue taken into account • Model does not take into account wholesale/resale offerings on MVNO basis • ARPU does not include VAT • 50% decline in ARPU over 10 Years is assumed, while QOS on a per subscriber basis is consistently increased • Blended ARPU ~ $17 , reducing to ~$8 by year 10
  • 42. Financials of WiMax Operator Business Case Parameter Values Coverage Timeline Phase 1 : 2010 to 2013, Phase 2 : 2014-2016, Phase 3: 2016- 2018 Phase 1 Coverage Top 250 cities Covered ( 2010 to 2013) Coverage BTS – Phase I ~14K Coverage BTS required for covering 17K sq Km. Estimated Subscriber Capacity of 28 Mil in the network Network Loading Network Loading of 40% assumed in the business model at the end of Phase I – End of Year 2013 EBITDA Breakeven ( Phase 1) Year 1 Cum FCF Breakeven ( Phase 1) Year 3 Discounted CF Breakeven Year 4 ( Phase 1) Cumulative CapEx ( Phase 1) $ 600 Mil - end of year 2013 Total Revenue ( Phase 1) $1.4 Billion – end of year 2013
  • 43. WiMAX No longer next generation; here and now
  • 46. LTE Claims & Reality UPGRADE FALSE Complete forklift upgrade from RAN to Core LTE is a simple upgrade to 3G FALSE LTE needs wide FDD channels, or must SPECTRUM re-farm existing spectrum w/o compromising current LTE has plenty of spectrum services TBD Until IPR is resolved, depth and breadth DEVICE COST of devices suppliers limited. Chipsets burdened with legacy multimode. Plethora of devices will be there FALSE Standard not complete. Multi-year TIMING WiMAX Time-to-Market advantage and roadmap to .16m will provide a sustained lead over LTE will be ready when the market is alternatives. ready
  • 47. Owner: ML WIMAX in Top PC Markets U.S. Clearwire, DigitalBridge, Towerstream, Xanadaoo & dozens of others Japan UQ soft launch Feb – fastest global network with up to 40Mbps downlink Germany DBD in market today with fixed/city wide hotspot; Half dozen others in service or planned UK Freedom 4, UK Broadband, Irish Broadband & almost dozen others in market today; 2.5GHz auction this year France Bollore deploying fixed and city wide hotspots; 5 others operators across France Russia 13 carriers include Scartel & Comstar deploying Fixed/Mobile networks Italy 10 carriers including AriaDSL launching fixed/city wide hotspots South Korea KT & SKT in market today with mobile Brazil Embartel, Telefonica, Brasil Telecom, TVA & others in market today with fixed, growing city wide hotspots to mobile India BSNL deploying today in 25,000 villages; auction in H1’09 for 2.3/5GHz Mexico 7 carriers including MVS deploying today fixed/city wide hotspot Australia 6 carriers today including Unwired expanding coverage Spain Iberbanda & NeoSky deploying fixed, city wide hotspot and mobile
  • 48. Data Traffic is Taking Over Voice Networks Percentage of Overall Traffic 100% 100% 80% DATA 60% 40% 40% VOICE 20% 0% 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Source: Cisco
  • 49. Mobile WiMAX: the Best of Available Options Peak Data Rate RAN Access Technology Downlink Uplink Latency WiMAX Rel 1.0 (.16e) 40 Mbps 10 Mbps* 40 ms TDD (2:1 Ratio) 10 MHz 2x2 MIMO 1x2 cMIMO Today HSPA (today) 2x5 MHz 14 Mbps 2 Mbps 50-250 ms HSUPA 2x5 MHz 14 Mbps 5.8 Mbps 50-250 ms HSPA+ 2x5 MHz Rel 7 21 Mbps 5.8 Mbps 50-250 ms + 64 QAM HSPA+ 2x5 MHz 21 Mbps 42 11.6Mbps 5.8 Mbps 50-250 ms Future MIMO*+64QAMdownlink MIMO+64QAM downlink HSPA+ 2x10 MHz Rel 9 42 Mbps 84 11.6 Mbps 23 Mbps ? MIMO*+64QAMdownlink MIMO+64QAM downlink LTE (Rel 8) 2x5MHz 43.2 Mbps 21.6 Mbps 30 ms 2x2 MIMO Mobile WiMAX™ 2.0 300+ Mbps 112 Mbps < 30 ms (802.16m) 2x20 MHz 4x4 MIMO 2x4 MIMO * Signals Ahead, HSPA+: So Many Options, So Little Time, April 2009
  • 50. Lower IPR is Key to Device Proliferation Relative IPR New Cost Entrants Don’t Enter Maximum Cost Do Bearable Enter Leading Incumbents Minimum Relative IPR Strength Needed IPR Strength
  • 51. Mobile Broadband Technology Open Vision Well defined interfaces At all levels for a simple Mobile Internet Services All IP Architecture 3GPP/3GPP2 Specifications) (Interworking supported in NWG Specifications WiMAX Forum Flexible Deployment IETF based protocols Architectures GPP/3GPP2 Minimized number of All- All-IP Core Networks Layers and protocols with Interworking for backend systems re-use re- Message based control Signaling for flexibility All- All-IP Flexible RANs Retail model enabled by Standards Industry certification profiles 802.16 WiMAX IEEE 802. + Inexpensive Radios OFDM+MIMO to Optimize bandwidth efficiency Innovation at all levels
  • 52. WiMAX or LTE = Same Level of Upgrade 2G, 3G Network (GSM, EV-DO, HSPA) 2G, 3G Core Network SGSN MGW GGSN Upgrade core network to New data overlay network support more IP data traffic 4G Network: All IP Core (WiMAX or LTE) SAE GW PCRF HSS MME/UPE OCS Radio Access Network (RAN): Core Network Equipment > 90-95% of new CapEx* < 10% of new CapEx* Both WiMAX & LTE require new RAN equipment & devices. Neither is “backward compatible” to 3G. Both can interwork well with existing 2G, 3G networks. * Intel estimates. Percentage varies based upon the operator’s existing network.
  • 53. Why do we need +2 Mbps Mobile broadband? +2 Internet is getting more complex with rich multimedia Mobile Internet Trends Web pages getting more complex  Avg web page size has tripled in past 5 years  +75% HTTP requests from images, 75%  +90% of web pages have images today 90% Video and HD are here  Average file size on the web : 10 MBytes  Video accounts for ~99% of all bytes transferred ~99% Laptop users account for  And they are growing in size and length; 90% of 90% >80% of KT WiBro videos are +3min, up from under 1 min in ‘97 +3 ‘97 data access*  Quality is degrading Thus Mobile Internet Requires Multi-Mbps Connection Per User and WiMAX meets and far exceeds this need Other brands and names are the property of their respective owners. *Source: KT Q1’08. *Forrester Research
  • 54. What is the Wireless Broadband killer application?* sina.com.cn 播客最热机构风 PersianBlog.Com 云榜单 设定本页为浏览 器首页 Anything Internet Can Provide & More
  • 55. The Mobile Internet experience is not simple Radio Access 4G RF Network + 4G Devices WiMAX + Customer Customer Experience Experience Multimedia Content + Open Applications