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Mobility Trends

Mobility Trends

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Mobility Trends Mobility Trends Presentation Transcript

  • Future Trends - Mobility Presenter: Vishal
  • Table of ContentsEconomic UpdateEmerging TechnologiesConvergence, Industry EvolutionIndustry Players – Strategy, StatusWhy App StoresMobile - Future UI, ServicesAppendix
  • EconomicUpdate Source: S&P, Bloomberg, Office of Mgmt. & Budget, Understanding the S&P Downgrade
  • • Social MediaHype Curve • • Cloud Computing MobileEmerging Technologies - 2011 Source: Gartner Hype Curve - 2011
  • FutureConvergence SO Social LO MO Local Mobile Source: TOP MOBILE INTERNET TRENDS , KPCB, 2011
  • Industry Evolution Horizontal vs VerticalHorizontal • Technical Advances • Supplier Market Power • Proprietary System ProfitabilityIndustry Structure Pressure to Integrate vs Disintegrate • Niche Competitors • High Dimensional ComplexityVertical • Organisation Rigidities Integrated Product Modular Source: Clock Speed – Charles Fine
  • Industry Evolution Computer Industry – 1960 to 2000Horizontal Mid 90’s Compaq Desktop Internet ComputingIndustry Structure 1960 IBM Early 80’sVertical Mainframes Apple, IBM Personal Computing Integrated Product Modular Source: HBR Skate To Where the Money will Be , Nov 2001
  • Telecom IndustryValue Chain - Mobile Industry 1990 OEM’s - Other Equipment Manufacturers MNO - Mobile Network Operator App, Radio Industrial & Processors Packaging Core Apps (Dialler, Which device & Voice, Msg, IM, Graphics etc Design Call Logs, Menu, inbox) Where on the device Facebook, Games Chipset Hardware Device Core UI Service ServiceManufacturing O/S Service IP Platform Design Apps Design Distribution Delivery Integrated H/W S/W Middleware & Design of UI Voice, Text, Web Reference Designs hardware Integration WAP, IM, On device integration 2011 OEM’s - Other Equipment Manufacturers Chipsets MNO - Mobile Network Operator 15% of Industry Revenue 75% of Industry Revenue Source: VisionMobile, Mobile Megatrends 2010
  • Industry StructureEvolution - Horizontal vs Vertical Horizontal Industry Structure Vertical Industry Structure Characteristics: Characteristics: • Modular Components • Integrated Components • Standardised • Proprietary Interfaces Interfaces • High Barriers to entry • Low Barriers to entry • All or Nothing • Mix and Match Maturing Product Mkt. Emerging Product Mkt. Emphasis: Emphasis: • Price • Performance • Flexibility • Functionality • Customisation • Convenience The Double Helix: Industries Moved Between Horizontal to Vertical Structures Source: Clock Speed – Charles Fine
  • Industry Evolution Network – Vertical to Horizontal Horizontal Industry Structure Vertical Industry Structure 2004 end of Walled 2009 Open to Social GardensNtwks, Open NtwksAPI 2003 IT Ops Outsourced 2010 Outsource 2008 2005 Sub-brands Service Basestation delivery Sharing opens upto S/W developers 1980s Mobile 2011 Industry was Operators as Born Micropayment Providers 1999 1st 2014 ?? Convergence MVNO appear 1990- 8 of Operator Fixed Standardisation of + Mobile Products Radio & SIM Intf. Source: VisionMobile, Mobile Megatrends 2010
  • Industry EvolutionHandset OEM – Vertical to Horizontal Horizontal Industry Structure 2002 1st Vertical Industry Structure MNO 2005 Manuf. 1 customised in 3 phones 2003 devices 2010 Apple outsourced Outsourced Best in class Operating experience, 2007 from chipsets to Systems 2008-2009 RIM, Open ad networks source Apple – Service browsers + device propositions and O/S’s 2009 OEM 1980s Mobile App Stores, Industry was OEM Sync Born Services 1999 1st 2010 ODMs appear 1990- 8 Windows 2007-8 Standardisation of Phone (7) Nokia Radio & SIM Intf. Ovi Store Service 20 Years – From Vertical to Horizontal & Back Source: VisionMobile, Mobile Megatrends 2010
  • Industry StructureEvolution - Horizontal vs Vertical Horizontal Industry Structure Vertical Industry Structure Network Operators Handset OEM’s • 30 - 50 Years/Cycle • 15-25 Years/Cycle Characteristics: Characteristics: • Slow Moving • Agile • Rigid • Fragile Handset OEM’s Moves 2x as fast as Network Operators Source: VisionMobile, Mobile Megatrends 2010
  • Industry StructureStatus Check Horizontal Industry Structure Vertical Industry Structure Tier -2/3 Operators RIM Apple Tier -1 Operators Leaders Assemblers • New Experiences • Razor thin margins • Enviable Margins 1980s Mobile Industry was Born Handset OEMs Chipset Samsung LG, Sony Ericsson OEMs Motorola Qualcomm Google Intel HTC Nokia Source: VisionMobile, Mobile Megatrends 2010
  • IndustryStatus Check iPhone 1 Released Company vs Mkt Cap. (USD) P/E Net Margins Performance Apple 300.66 B 15.56 21.48% Nokia 22.34 B 8.84 3.16% Microsoft 204.92 B 9.63 30.22% RIMM 14.97 B 4.53 17.13% Google 153.03 B 18.4 29.01% Intel 112.40 B 9.88 26.28% Telstra 36.19 B (AUD) 11.24 16% Source: Google Finance
  • Industry StructureKey Takeaways• Operators/Carriers are moving slowly – half the clock speed of handset OEM’s• T1 OEM are approaching fully formed vertical led by Apple• Both players are creating gravity centers and developer ecosystem• Chipset vendors are the a-la-carte assemblers (DELL) of mobile• Reminds of PC Business ? 1990 OEM’s - Other Equipment Manufacturers MNO - Mobile Network Operator Chipset Hardware Device Core UI Service ServiceManufacturing O/S Service IP Platform Design Apps Design Distribution Delivery 2011 OEM’s - Other Equipment Manufacturers Chipsets MNO - Mobile Network Operator Source: VisionMobile, Mobile Megatrends 2011,2010
  • Where is the ValueHorizontal vs Vertical Biggest profits are at the points of proprietary integration OR Those who control the interdependent links in a value chain capture the most profit Source: HBR Skate To Where the Money will Be , Nov 2001
  • Industry Players Battle to Capture ValueComponents Carriers Nokia RIM Apple Google Qualcomm Windows Facebook Social NetworksCloud Services Developer Ecosystem NetworkUser Interface Operating SystemHardware IPManufacturing Denotes Where Player Started Source: VisionMobile, Mobile Megatrends 2011,2010
  • Industry PlayersTelco’s vs Software Telco’s Software World Success Factor Installed base Number of Apps Primary Customer Consumer DeveloperSpeed of Innovation 1 OS version every 2 years 5 OS version every 2 years Time To Market 1-2 years 1-2 weeks Type of Services Comms centric Catering to entire needs portfolio Risk Taking Predictability/de-risking Entrepreneurship / uncertaintyAccess to Innovation 100s of close partners 100,000s of developers Business Model B2B licensing B2C Sales/ads/ in app sales Channel to Market Voice, text and web Smartphone Discovery On device/deck App Store First Step We need to sign an ND We need to download an SDK Process Waterfall: RFI/RFQ, Deliver, QA Agile: Add feature, build, test, repeat Attitude Developers will come to us We need to go to Developers Source: VisionMobile, Mobile Megatrends 2011
  • Industry PlayersKey Takeaways• Speed of innovation defined by internet companies, not hardware / networks Internet players are at top of the food chain and are becoming increasingly assertive. Network operators still hold most value (insights and retail channels) in the last mile to the consumer• Innovation requires new competence and regional presence California is the center for software and services innovation. Japan/Korea is the center of CE innovation• If you can’t innovate in software, you will be replaced, game has just accelerated 10-fold Software has superseded carrier efforts in non-comms user needs, location, billing, discovery, authentication Social Networks Communities Relationships Volume Conversations Telephony Calls Rendezvous Source: VisionMobile, Mobile Megatrends 2011
  • Competitive Growth Internet Companies – Information Goods • No Diseconomies of ScaleSource: http://blogs.wsj.com/venturecapital/2011/02/26/facebook-groupon-zynga-off-the-chart-revenue/
  • OrganisationBusiness vs Tech Cycle Business Cycle Investments Intensifying Competition 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 Time Technology Cycle Investments Static IT Cycle T T 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 Time
  • Mobile Internet Future (Post-PC) Growing Faster Desktop Internet 10B+ 1B+ PC 100M+ Microcomputer 10M+Mainframe Units/User 1M+ 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 Source: TOP MOBILE INTERNET TRENDS , KPCB, 2011
  • FutureProcessing vs Portability Desktop Laptop Netbook Game Console iPadComputing Power Set Top Box Future Devices Connected TV Dell Streak Connected Printer Smart Phone Automobile Wearable Device Portability Source: Forrester 2010 – The iPad Is Just One Of Many In-Between Devices
  • Paradigm ShiftDesktop Mobile• Fixed • Location• Pull • Pull & Push• Search • Relevance• Social • Contextual• Dayparts • Always on• Information • Entertainment
  • MobileUser Interface To Vo Mo Touch Voice Motion Source: TOP MOBILE INTERNET TRENDS , KPCB, 2011
  • MobileRetail - UI Source: PSFK Future of the Retail, 2011
  • Mobile Services - Context Audio/Video 3d Video Capture, HD Audio, 3D LCD’sContext Control (Multiple chips, NFC, Gyroscope, Voice Control) Sensors/Inputs 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Technology Experience Business Opportunity NFC Contactless Info Exchange Payments, Ticketing & Security Depth/Distance Virtual Sizing/fit with 3D or 2D Camera Measurements 3D Video Capture Augmented Reality Detect presence of chemicals, alcohol, Breathanalyser, perfume Chemical Sensors Carbon monoxide matching, food freshness Infrared Find pets, empty parking Infrared images, heat detection (Micro bolometers) spaces Targeting/Navigation based on Barometer Altitude Information weather, Floor of mall Source: Forrester 2011 Future of Mobile is User Context
  • MobileRetail - Context Source: PSFK Future of the Retail, 2011
  • Apps are the New WebNew Paradigm Mobile Apps Web Pages Packaging Self Contained Set of pages Personalising Access to location contacts Explicitly typed info only Discovering App store Text results or URL Monetising Micropayments Ads Interacting Touch, sensors, keys Mouse, keys Measuring Downloads economy Attention economy Source: VisionMobile, Mobile Megatrends 2011,2010
  • Apps are The New Web App Stores - OEM’s, Carriers, OS VendorsGlobal Blackberry Store Get User Android Mkt Apple iTunes Mobile9 Nokia Ovi Store Handango Windows Samsung App Store LG App Store Orange App StoreLocal Vodafone 360 Telefonica M-Store Single Platform Multiple Platform Legend OEMS Carriers OS Vendors Independent Source: Future of Location Based Service, Ric Ferraro, M Aktihar
  • App StoresControl Point & Bldg.App Stores are a control point for• Discovery of apps• Distribution of apps• Monetisation of apps• Exit barrier for users• Consumer insightsBuilding is Hard• Developer Mkt - Platform Companies• Billing & Settlement – mobile carrier & payment brokers• Distribution Surface – handset OEMs• Delivery & in-life mgmt. – platform companies• Retailing & Merchandising – brands & retailers Source: VisionMobile, Mobile Megatrends 2011,2010
  • OpennessCommoditise Complements iOS Android Windows Phone Blackberry Symbian Components Bundled Services App Developers Device Vendor Software Platform Hardware Platform Legend Closed Curated Open Source: VisionMobile, Mobile Megatrends 2011,2010
  • Questions Thank you Source: http://www.flickr.com/photos/yggg/774488265/sizes/o/in/photostream/
  • Appendix