Comparing REL Methods for Deforestation Prediction in East Kalimantan
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2. REDDeX Conference, Cancun, July 14, 2010 Comparison of REL Methods for Districts of East Kalimantan, Indonesia. Bronson Griscom, Sr. Scientist Forest Carbon John Kerkering, Conservation Analyst
3. Question: What is the most accurate method for predicting the amount of deforestation within districts of East Kalimantan?
9. 2 Predicted deforestation in each district = Historic rate of reference region …where reference regions are determined by cluster analysis Cluster Anal.
10. 3 Predicted deforestation in each district = Modeled future rate in each district …using spatially explicit model at regional (province) scale.
15. Comparison of Three Methods Predicted area deforested from 2006-2009 minus Actual area deforested from 2006-2009 (as % of actual area deforested) 3 2 1
22. Nested RELs National Scale: Historic mean, with negotiated adjustments? Sub-National Scale (e.g. State/Province): Modeled projection, to determine proportion of national emissions pie? Separate models for deforestation vs. degradation? Project Scale: Mixed. Modeled projection for unplanned events? Book-keeping for planned events / strategies?
Let’s consider reference region method 2 because:Seems to be relatively accurate.Pretty intuitive (even though some geeky stats).Facilitates nesting to national scale.Might encourage competition to reduce deforestation rates.