This presentation discusses how MOOCs and related technologies will be changing higher education

1. OMG! MOOCs!
MOOCs, eLearning, Disruption and Higher Education
Vince Kellen, Ph.D.
Senior Vice Provost
Academic Planning, Analytics and Technologies
University of Kentucky
Vince.Kellen@uky.edu
March, 2013
This is a living document subject to substantial revision.

2. MOOCs (Massive Open Online Class)
For-profit MOOC startups are emerging
• Udacity, Coursera, Udemy, Kahn Academy
– Coursera added 29 more universities, several from overseas to complement the initial 33 universities (March,
2013)
• Universities are experimenting with credit transfers from some of these courses
– Colorado State is piloting a computer class transfer (September, 2012) from Udacity
– California State will use Udacity to offer remedial algebra, statistics for $150 a course (January 2012)
– California is considering legislation to require credit transfer for overcrowded classes (March, 2013)
Non-profit MOOCs have been announced
• EdX – a joint venture with Harvard, MIT, Berkeley, University of Texas
Industry-university partnerships have been announced
• 2U: Northwestern, Duke, University of North Carolina Chapel Hill and a few others
(November, 2012)
• Academic Partnerships: ASU, University of Cincinnati, University of Arkansas,
Cleveland State, Florida International University, Utah State, University of Texas
Arlington (January 2013)
Expect more universities, companies with announcements in 2013 and 2014
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3. How many students are learning online?
Last year, within the U.S., about 6.7 million students have taken at
least one online course (there are about 20 million higher
education students in the U.S.)
Last year, the growth rate was about 9%, with 570,000 new online
enrollments, the lowest in since 2002
The percentage of students taking at least one online course is
32%
Only 2.6% of institutions participate in or use a massive-online
open course (MOOC) system. 9.4% of the institutions are
considering
Source: Changing Course: Ten Years of Tracking Online Education in the United States. January, 2013. Babson Survey Research Group and
Quahog Research Group.
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4. Framing concepts
1. Business models versus
technology models
2. Unbundling
3. The last mile problem
4. Scale versus quality
5. Deep personalization
technology
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5. Business models versus IT models
People are confusing MOOC business models with technology models. MOOC
business models will spread (diffuse) very differently than MOOC technology
Information technology represent general purpose tools that will find their way into
many different business models
MOOCs are spurring rapid innovation in technology, not so much business
models. MOOC business models are under stress right now!
What is good for the goose is good for the gander. Information technology lowers
barriers to entry, including barriers that traditional higher education institutions
face in entering MOOC markets
The interest in MOOCs comes on the heels of disinterest in for-profit business
models
The technology innovation that will follow MOOCs is more interesting (IMHO) than
their emerging business models
• This technology can potentially lower significantly the cost of delivering some education
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6. Unbundling
Whether to bundle or unbundle is a recurring problem in many industries. Bundling
ensures lock-in (e.g., Apple). Unbundling supports scale (e.g., Google)
What can be bundled together or sold separately?
• ‘Destination resort’ services, physical facilities, course content, course delivery,
athletics, degree/certification, accreditation, community management (alumni
development, etc.), government aid (financial aid, state support)
• Institutions have been providing different combinations of bundling/unbundling resulting
in the mix of providers today
• The critical bundle: government aid, degree/certification, accreditation
• The critical unbundling questions:
– What happens if aid can be given for non-degreed or non-accredited education of any kind?
MOOCs do not present any significant change in overall bundling strategies
unless public policy changes
• Universities can become MOOCs if needed but that radically changes their mission and
their strategy
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7. Higher education has a ‘last mile’ problem
Education in any form is struggling to address families and communities with economic and
other readiness problems
Free or low-cost educational content does not easily solve readiness problems which have a
multitude of factors
For profit models rightfully struggle with ‘last-mile’ problems. Public policy matters!
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8. Scale/ubiquity versus quality
In prior versions of IT disruptions, consumers have preferred
ubiquity and scale/convenience over technical quality (e.g.,
Internet, cell phones, social media)
Is this true for eLearning or education in general? It depends on
how we define quality.
Let’s define quality as the ability for the learner to apply what was
learned in a way that provides them with the advantage or benefit
they sought
Would some learners accept inferior educational delivery/outcomes
to gain ubiquity, ease of access or low cost? (Why are we holding
this meeting in person?)
On the other hand…
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9. What would Abraham Lincoln think of a MOOC?
Abraham Lincoln
• Autodidactic
• Books, books, books
• Became a skilled military strategist
• Penchant for poetry, Shakespeare,
politics and history
My nephew
• Not an autodidact
• Good worker, smart kid, but…
• It takes a village
• After a few low-security colleges
and much money borrowed
• He has found an intellectual home
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10. Future job demands
Middle skill jobs have received
little wage growth and job growth
since 1980
High skilled jobs, especially those
with advanced degrees, have
experienced the best wage and
job growth
The work force middle is getting
‘hollowed out’ The Growth of Low Skill Service Jobs and the Polarization of the U.S. Labor Market. David
Autor and David Dorn. NBER Working Paper 15150. http://www.nber.org/papers/w15150
The recession may have
accelerated the trend
The demand for masters level
and above education is likely to
increase. MOOCs are likely to
play a role in filling these gaps
Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation: Is College Worth It?
http://www.scribd.com/doc/113360662/Is-College-Worth-It
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11. MOOC threats and opportunities
Threats Opportunities
Should public policy regarding aid and MOOC technology can lower barriers to
accreditation substantially change, all entries for ALL competitors, providing
forms of education that bundle advantage for traditional and smaller
aid/degrees/accreditation will be at risk universities
Traditional universities and for-profits could MOOC technology can be used to address
master MOOC technology, threatening the “long tail” of educational delivery (large
weaker, slower institutions numbers of niche content/instructors to
small numbers of leaners)
A MOOC player might be able to produce a
sizeable quantity of high-quality learners MOOC technology can be used to provide
that industry values and seeks out over ‘fast-trackers’ with shorter times to
higher education degrees, perhaps starting in high school,
freeing up financial resources for
subsequent graduate and professional
education
MOOC technology might be a way to
address some college readiness issues in
high school
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12. The hidden gem: deep personalization technology
In all this noise about MOOCs, I am seeing a significant trend towards adaptive
learning technology with different approaches taken by emerging vendors (e.g.,
Knewton, LoudCloud)
Adaptive learning technology matches content to student as it learns how well the
student is mastering concepts and skills, responding to questions and tasks
Other personalization techniques (e.g., text mining, neural networks) that
incorporate other forms of student data (e.g., cognitive, non-cognitive, personality
tests) can be brought to bear in this problem of matching educational content and
interactions to learners
The industry may be moving to development of technology that relies on data
about the learner that delivers deeply personalized experiences. This approach
can alter text, images, pace and content based on learner abilities and
characteristics
This kind of technology could have a significant impact on classroom activities.
Automating some content delivery via intelligent personalization rules can enable
richer F2F interactions, more use of active learning approaches, etc.
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13. eLearning Opportunity Matrix
Adult learner
- Lecture capture for graduate/professional - Certificate/badges nationally/globally
- Hybrid graduate/professional degrees - 100% online professional degrees
- Hybrid adult undergraduate degrees - Participation with MOOCs
Enhance current Develop new
programs programs/markets
- Flipped classroom - Online undergraduate degrees local/national
- ‘Readiness’ MOOC for high school students - Online AP credit education & testing
- Hybrid classes - Free open undergraduate courseware
Traditional learner
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14. How technology can affect cost and quality
High
effectiveness MOOC/online + DPT + F2F (hybrid)
Small F2F class
MOOC/online + DPT
Current MOOC, online approaches
Broadcast class
F2F = Face-to-face
Low DPT = deep personalization technology,
adaptive learning technology
effectiveness
Low volume High volume
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15. Volume operations versus complex systems
Excluding the late 20th century, universities have been largely complex systems, delivering niche and
customizable interactions F2F settings. Large lectures were added to increase output while reducing costs
Deep personalization technology and MOOC approaches can begin to handle both high-volume and
specialty classes
Geoffrey Moore (2005). Dealing With Darwin
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16. Chaos and complexity in strategy
In highly dynamic markets it is not clear what kinds of organizations have
an advantage. The market may be cooling off just enough to provide us
some direction within the next year
As each competitor enters new areas of competition, they are often drawn
into areas of weakness
• Can a local brand compete globally against other global brands
• Can an elite institution compete in a new market against non-elite institution
• Can an online university deliver face-to-face and vice versa
Organizations that incrementally and quickly extend their core
competencies over new territory have a double advantage
• There is less to learn. Existing skills can be more easily applied
• As they learn, they can adjust smaller maneuvers faster and cheaper than
adjusting big maneuvers, staying in tune with the shifting market
Speed matters. Can we move quickly here? I think we can
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17. What should traditional universities do?
Quality will continue to be a critical competitive factor. Keep investing in academic
quality, the residential experience and student success. Continue to focus on
hybrid programs and targeted online programs
Lead higher education. Extend our competencies using carefully selected MOOC
technology and approaches
Brand matters! Taking an existing brand into uncharted waters is very difficult.
Launching a new brand in any water is also very difficult. Treat our brand with
care. Test and validate
Encourage rapid and iterative innovation within our universities. Facilitate sharing
of what works and what doesn’t quickly across colleges and universities
All competitors will eventually have to master personalization technology and the
associated business processes to collect and manage the associated data. Start
learning how to do this now
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