It is a full presentation about the economy of the Southeast Asia.
Acknowledgement : this presentation stems from two parts, firstly, it's my own made presentaion from collecting data from many sources such as world bank, UN statistics, and ADB. Also, it's conglomeration of many slide presentation, especially, about the financial situation in region from many academicians. It is my grateful to say Thanks for all of the presentation.
4. Economic Facts
• GDP
• GDP Growth Rate
• GDP 2011
• GDP Per Capita
• GNI Per Capita
• Human Development Index
• Poverty Rate
• Inequality Problem represented by Gini
Coefficient
5. GDP (Current Million U.S.$)
GDP Current U.S. $ (Million)
Brunei Darussalam Cambodia Indonesia
Lao PDR Malaysia Myanmar
Philippines Singapore Thailand
Vietnam
800000
600000
400000
200000
0
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
year
Source: World Bank
19. Poverty Rate under 1.25$
Cambodia Philippines Malaysia
Thailand Vietnam Singapore
Indonesia Myanmar Lao
Brunei
80
60
40
20
0
1980 1990 2000 2010
year
Source: World Bank
39. Overview
• Asean population
• Recent labour market
• Youth employment
• Education
• Intra-regional labour migration in ASEAN
• Occupational safety and health (OSH)
45. Population Policy
• Family planning
• Authoritarian Approach (Coercion and quotas)
• Sterilization campaign
• Developed countries help provide contraceptives
to Less developed countries.
• Improvement in women’s education
46. Recent labour market trends
• Increasing labour supply creates pressure
• Gender gap weakens labour force
participation
59. The policy
• Ensure that migration is going to be mutually
beneficial for all parties
• Regularize the migration: regulate admissions
• discourage employers hiring undocumented
migrants and give migrant workers legal status
• ensure equal treatment among both skilled and
unskilled
• Struggling to Provide Social Protection to
Migrants
60. Safety at works
19 Workers Die in
Lethal
Death across the Construction
rail way Vietnam Work Accident
CHINA
65. The policy
• improved occupational injury and disease
reporting systems, stronger labour inspection
regimes and expanded coverage of workers.
• A win-win policy, as sound safety and health
practices are good for workers as well as for
business.
• The Factories and General Labour Laws
Inspection Department
67. Youth employment (aged 15 to 24
years)
• What they achieve as workers, entrepreneurs, innovators,
agents of change, citizens, leaders, and parents will shape
future economic, social, political, and technological
developments.
• They are the region’s greatest assets, but their potential is not
being fully realized. In large part this is because they lack
access to productive and decent work and, oftentimes, to
sufficient educational opportunities.
69. Linkages between youth employment and
child labour
Child labour and lack of access to education exacerbates
youth employment challenge
Education enrolment and completion
rates
70. The policy
• Educational support: increased investments in
education, particularly in primary and secondary
education in the lower-income ASEAN economies
• Promote career training :encourage companies
to invest in workers’ skills and improve access to
new technologies which improves productivity
and strengthen competitiveness.
• Create youth employment: provide job seeker
assistance and information. Subsidize those
company who’re hiring fresh graduated student
73. ASEAN COMMUNITY
The Three Pillars of the ASEAN COMMUNITY
1. ASEAN POLITICAL-SECURITY COMMUNITY (APSC)
2. ASEAN ECONOMIC COMMUNITY (AEC)
3. ASEAN SOCIO-CULTURAL COMMUNITY (ASCC)
77. ASEAN POLITICAL-SECURITY
COMMUNITY (APSC) BLUEPRINT
• ASEAN Political Security Community is one of
the cooperation among the three pillars of
the ASEAN Community that focuses on
creating confidence, stability and peace in
the region to ensure that ASEAN citizen live
together in peace and free from the threat of
the military and the threat of drug and
transnational crime.
83. ASEAN ECONOMIC COMMUNITY
(AEC) BLUEPRINT
• ASEAN Economic Community or AEC is one
of the cooperation among the three pillars of
the ASEAN Community that shall be the goal
of regional economic integration by 2015
• In short, the AEC will transform ASEAN into a
region with free movement of goods,
services, investment, skilled labor, and freer
flow of capital.
84.
85. key characteristics of AEC
• Single Market and Production Base
• Competitive Economic Region
• Equitable Economic Development
• Integration into the Global Economy
86. The areas of cooperation
• Human resources development and capacity building
• Recognition of professional qualifications
• Consultation on economic and financial polices
• Trade financing
• Infrastructure and communications connectivity
• Electronic transactions through e-ASEAN
• Industrial integration to promote regional sourcing
• Enhancing private sector involvement for the building
of AEC
87. Challenges for AEC
• Inadequate resources and institutional
capacity
• Weak coordination
• Insufficient political will
88. Benefits of AEC
Source: Schematic drawn by author based on arguments summarized in Plummer
and Chia (2009)
90. ASEAN SOCIO-CULTURAL
COMMUNITY (ASCC) BLUEPRINT
• ASEAN SOCIO-CULTURAL COMMUNITY
or ASCC is one of the cooperation
among the three pillars of the ASEAN
Community that focused on nurturing
the human, cultural and natural
resources for sustained development in
a harmonious and people-oriented
ASEAN.
99. ASEAN HIGHWAY NETWORK
• The ASEAN Highway Network Project aims to
connect the high potential area in ASEAN.
• These project has total of 23 routes.
• By 2020 The highways which is assigned to be
international highways will be develop to the
class 1 or primary class
100.
101. Greater Mekong Subregion : GMS
• A development project formed by the Asian
Development Bank in 1992
• Brought together the six states of the
Mekong River basin, namely Cambodia, Laos,
Myanmar, Thailand, Vietnam, and the
Yunnan Province of China.
102. GMS Strategic Framework for 2012-
2022
• strengthen regional cooperation
• including more effective resource utilization
• more careful balancing of development with
environmental concerns
• ETC.
105. EXITING FROM POLICY SUPPORT
The Cost of the Crisis
Table 1. General Government Overall Fiscal Balances
(In percent of GDP)
105
106. EXITING FROM POLICY SUPPORT
The Cost of the Crisis
Table 2. Comparison of the 2009 Fiscal Positions Across the ASEAN-5
(In percent of GDP, unless otherwise indicated)
106
109. Exit from Fiscal Policy Support
Given the strong economic rebound in all the ASEAN-5,
these economies are already beginning to identify and
implement their exit strategies from fiscal policy support.
109
110. THE ROLE OF PUBLIC POLICY IN STRENGTHENING
FUTURE GROWTH POTENTIAL
1. Key Challenges: Addressing
Infrastructure Gaps
Infrastructure needs remain
significant in most of the
ASEAN-5 economies.
110
111. Key Challenges: Addressing Infrastructure Gaps
Table 5. Ranking on Basic Infrastructure
in the Asia-Pacific
111
114. Key Challenges: Strengthening Private Consumption,
Alleviating Poverty and Preparing for
an Ageing Population
Table 6. Private Consumption
(In percent of GDP)
114
115. Key Challenges: Strengthening Private Consumption,
Alleviating Poverty and Preparing for
an Ageing Population
- Demographics - Social security systems
- Level of financial development
115
116. Key Challenges: Strengthening Private Consumption,
Alleviating Poverty and Preparing for
an Ageing Population
Table 7. Poverty and Inequality Indicators
116
117. Key Challenges: Strengthening Private Consumption,
Alleviating Poverty and Preparing for
an Ageing Population
Table 8. Social Spending (In percent of GDP)
117
118. FISCAL SPACE TO FOSTER MEDIUM-TERM GROWTH
Creating Fiscal Space by Re-Orienting Spending Priorities
Table 9. General Government Expenditure Structure: Selected Asian Economies, 2008
118
119. FISCAL SPACE TO FOSTER MEDIUM-TERM GROWTH
Creating Fiscal Space through Revenue Reforms
Table 10. Revenue Structure: Selected Asian Economies, 2008 (Or most recent
available)
119
120. CONCLUSIONS
What public policies could help address these long-term
growth challenges?
- Promoting private infrastructure investment and
enhancing public investment
- Supporting private consumption, alleviating poverty and
preparing for an ageing
population
120
121. CONCLUSIONS
What policies could create the necessary fiscal space for
additional public spending in these
areas?
- Broadening tax bases can increase tax revenue
efficiency.
- Containing wage bills, transfers, and subsidies,
including by improved targeting and rationalizing of
subsidies.
121
122. CONCLUSIONS
- Increasing the efficiency of public investment to ensure
better quality and lower costs
through improvements in project appraisal and selection.
- Taking advantage of private-sector efficiencies
through PPPs, provided adequate safeguards and
frameworks are in place.
- Controlling fiscal risks, including from guarantees and
other contingent liabilities to reduce fiscal vulnerability and
to preserve fiscal space in the future.
122
123. References
IMF Working Paper, Asia and Pacific Department and
Fiscal Affairs Department, 2010, Post-Crisis Fiscal
Policy Priorities for the ASEAN-5.
123
142. Policy Challenge
• 1. Payment system development
1.1 Set the payment system in the same
standard
1.2 The development of payment system
among different currency in ASEAN
143. Policy Challenge
• 2. Capital movement liberalization
2.1 Capital movement barrier reduction
2.2 The supporting of local currency in
term of internal business in ASEAN
144. Policy Challenge
• 3 Banking system and banking service
development
3.1 Qualified ASEAN Bank: QAB
3.2 The decreasing of business banking
problems among countries in ASEAN
149. Total ratio of the exports of the ASEAN countries
distinguished by the group of the product
Unit :
Indonesia
Percentage
Malaysia
Vietnam
Singapore
Thailand
Philippines
Cambodia
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Fuel and Mineral Agriculture and Fisheries
Industry
150. Principal Import and Export
Principal imports Principal exports
BRUNEI machinery and transport equipment, crude oil, natural gas, and garments.
manufactured goods, food, and chemicals.
MYANMAR fabric, petroleum products, fertilizer, plastics, natural gas, wood products, pulses, beans,
machinery, transport equipment, cement, fish, rice, clothing, and jade and gems
construction materials, crude oil, food products,
and edible oil.
CAMBODIA petroleum products, cigarettes, gold, clothing, timber, rubber, rice, fish,
construction materials, machinery, motor tobacco, and footwear
vehicles, and pharmaceutical products.
INDONESIA machinery and equipment, chemicals, fuels and oil and gas, electrical appliances, plywood,
foodstuffs. textiles, and rubber.
LAOS machinery and equipment, vehicles, fuel, and wood products, coffee, electricity, tin,
consumer goods. copper, and gold.
151. Principal Import and Export (Cont)
Principal imports Principal Exports
MALAYSIA electronics, machinery, petroleum electronic equipment, petroleum
products, plastics, vehicles, iron and steel and liquefied natural gas, wood and wood
products, and chemicals products, palm oil, rubber, textiles, and chemicals.
PHILIPPINES electronic products, mineral fuels, semiconductors and electronic
machinery and transport equipment, iron products, transport equipment, garments, copper
and steel, textile fabrics, grains, chemicals, products, petroleum products, coconut oils, and
and plastic. fruits
SINGAPORE machinery and equipment, mineral fuels, machinery and equipment (including electronics),
chemicals, foodstuffs, and consumer consumer goods, pharmaceuticals and other
goods. chemicals, and mineral fuels.
THAILAND capital goods, intermediate goods and raw textiles and footwear, fishery products, rice,
materials, consumer goods, and fuels. rubber, jewelry, automobiles, computers, and
electrical appliances.
VIETNAM machinery and equipment, petroleum crude oil, marine products, rice,
products, fertilizer, steel products, raw coffee, rubber, tea, garments, and shoes.
cotton, grain, cement, and motorcycles.
152.
153.
154. Import Value Index
Myanmar
Thailand
Vietnam
Value
Laos
Malaysia
Singapore
Cambodia
Brunei
Indonesia
Philippines
Year
155. AEC Percent Import as GDP
Myanmar Thailand Vietnam Laos Malaysia
Singapore Cambodia Brunei Indonesia Philipphine
156. The ratio of the goods export compared to the GDP
of the countries in the ASEAN in 2010
Unit : % of
Singapore
Malaysia GDP
Brunei
Vietnam
Thailand
ASEAN
Cambodia
Laos
Philippines
Indonesia
Myanmar
157. Export Market of the ASEAN in 2010
Unit : % of export of
Country Number 1 each countriesNumber 3
Number 2
Myanmar ASEAN (49.2%) India (12.6%) China (6.7%)
Laos ASEAN (47.3%) USA (23.1%) Australia (11.5%)
Singapore ASEAN (30.0%) China (9.8%) Japan (9.4%)
Malaysia ASEAN (25.4%) China (12.6%) EU27 (10.7%)
Thailand ASEAN (49.2%) EU27 (11.2%) China (10.99%)
Philippines ASEAN (22.7%) Japan (15.2%) USA (14.7%)
Indonesia ASEAN (21.1%) Japan (16.3%) EU (10.9%)
Vietnam USA (19.7%) EU27 (15.8%) ASEAN (14.3%)
Cambodia USA (34.1%) EU27 (16.7%) ASEAN (12.6%)
Brunei Japan(43.4%) South Korea(16.7%) ASEAN (12.3%)
158. Export Value Index
Myanmar
Thailand
Vietnam
Value
Laos
Malaysia
Singapore
Cambodia
Brunei
Indonesia
Philippines
Year
159. AEC Percent Export as GDP
Myanmar Thailand Vietnam Laos Malaysia
Singapore Cambodia Brunei Indonesia Philippines
172. Intra-ASEAN FDI inflows, 2000-2009
(in million USD and percent share of total FDI inflows)
Source ASEAN Secretariat FDI Database
173. FDI inflows as a ratio of GDP
in percent
Source: ASEAN Secretariat FDI Database
174. FDI inflows as gross fixed capital
formation (in percent)
Source UNCTAD
175. Top host economies for FDI in 2010 –2012
Source: UNCTAD (2010a). World Investment Prospects Survey 2010-2012,figure
14, page 13.
Note: Numbers in parentheses before the name of selected countries are their
rankings in 2009.
177. Policy
HOST COUNTRY
≫ Financial Incentives
≫ Infrastructure
≫ Red Tape*
HOME COUNTRY
≫ Expropriation of assets
≫ Double Taxation-Earned Profit
≫ Cash Flow Insurance
178. Policy to encourage FDI
∎ “RED TAPE” : The cutting of RED TAPE or RED TAPE
reduction
Save Time Cost Reduction
Law, Local requirement, infrastructure, economic zone
Example : Myanmar
182. COMPETITIVENESS RANKINGS BY ASEAN REGION
Country Global Competitiveness Index 2011-2012
Singapore 2
Malaysia 21
Brunei 28
Thailand 39
Indonesia 46
Vietnam 65
Philippines 75
Cambodia 97
Myanmar NA
Lao PDR NA
183.
184. Table 2. Trade Balance Of Each Country in the ASEAN Market in
2006 - 2010
Unit : US$ million
Country 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Thailand 3,493 7,690 9,678 7,498 13,650
Indonesia -488 -1,500 -13,797 -3,098 -5,565
Malaysia 9,812 9,139 13,248 9,327 5,824
Philippines -2,022 -4,804 -7,049 -5,029 -3,490
Singapore 21,533 29,237 33,751 22,620 31,906
Vietnam -6,228 -7,695 -9,702 -8,128 -10,906
Brunei 983 976 1,376 -574 -648
Cambodia -1,761 -1,994 -2,683 -2,135 -4,567
Myanmar 933 421 498 278 -688
Laos -528 -907 -1,191 -1,221 -1,414
Source: Global Trade Atlas, 2011
185. Comparing the Trade Balance of Each Country
in the ASEAN Market in 2006-2010
194. FTA : ASEAN AND CHINA
China’s trade tariffs on ASEAN products have been 0.1 percent
on average since 2010, compared with its 9.8 percent tariff on all
other foreign trade
The tariff lines which are subject to the tariff reduction or
elimination program under this Agreement shall be categorized for
tariff reduction and elimination as follows :
- Normal Track
- Sensitive Track
- 20 % in 2012 , 0-5% in 2018
- 50 % in 2015 for Highly Sensitive Track
The proposed rail links between China and ASEAN countries will
facilitate the realization of ASEAN’s ambition of building an ASEAN
economic community by 2015.
195. FTA : IN THE FUTURE
GCC MERCOSUR
Bahrain , Argentina ,
Kuwait , Brazil ,
Oman , Paraguay ,
Qatar , Saudi EU RUSSIA Uruguay and
Arabia and Venezuela
UAE
196. Policy to encourage regional
trade integration
• Reduce tariff to zero percent
• Reduce NTBs including countervailing duties,
anti dumping duties, quota, subsidies
• Support Labor movement
• Flying geese of South East Asia (Innovation
Cycle)
• Do what we are good at followed H-O model
• Make Trade Route more convenient
198. • Economic growth does not tell us about
penury reduction.
• An indigent is still destitute. Life is still
unprivileged. Personal is deprived. Education
is lower than acceptable standard.
200. Quote
• James Speth, the executive
director of the United Nations
Development Program,
• “Poverty is no longer inevitable. The world has
the material and natural resources, the know-
how and the people to make a poverty-free world
a reality less than a generation. This is not wholly
idealism but a practical and achievable goal”
201. Poverty and Inequality Policy
Todaro;
• Altering the functional distribution of income
through policies designed to change relative
factor prices
• Modifying the size distribution through
progressive redistribution of asset ownership
• Reducing the size distribution of the upper levels
through progressive income and wealth tax
• Direct transfer payments and the public provision
of goods and services
202. (Cont)
• World Bank 1990
- Promote market-oriented economic growth
- Direct basic health and education services to
the poor
• Dwight H. Perkins
- Improving opportunities for the poor
- Income transfer and Safety Nets
203. Inequality, economic size, and
demographic size
Demographic size
- Indonesia, Myanmar,
Thailand, Malaysia,
Vietnam
Economic Size
- Indonesia, Thailand, Malaysia, Singapore,
Philippines
204. • J. Malcolm Dowling and Ma. Rebecca Valenzuela
For rural poverty
- Uplift the status of women
- Relax tenancy regulations
- Check rural credit schemes
- Encourage labor migration
- Provide rural infrastructure
- Appropriate currency exchange rate
- Establish property right
205. Cont.
For Urban Poverty
- Accelerate economic growth
- Provision of social services
- Dealing with squatters
- Land use
206. Human Development Policy
• Holistic Policy about health and education
- Medical Facilities and services
- Encourage basic physical and mental health
care among citizens
- Support Primary and Secondary School
- Create norms to be reading society
207. Tax Super
Rich
(Buffet)
Highlight
Revenue Fee from
on
congested
Individual Policy goods
Income Tax
Stabilize
CIT
208. Policy for HIV/ AIDS in Asia
• Promote the use of condoms among sex workers
and bisexual men
• Publicize the necessary for using measures to
protect against AIDS, such as condoms, and
highlight the importance of not sharing needles
• Make condoms and needles widely available and
at reasonable prices, or supplied free in clinics
• General promotion of HIV/ AIDS awareness
through public media and NGOs, newspaper,
magazine articles
209. Trade Policy
For support outward orientation
• Remove quotas and tariffs and other forms of
protection, especially on capital and
intermediate goods
• Allow the current to float with a market-
determined exchange rate, and ensure
macroeconomic stability through prudent
monetary and fiscal policies.
210. Cont
• Reduce unnecessary regulatory burdens,
bureaucratic costs, and red tape that add to
business costs
• Keep factor market flexible, especially for
labor and credit, with market determined
wages and interest rates
So as to open country to global market, and
expand market access
211. Cont
• Regional Trade Agreement
- Sometimes it’s considered as Trade Blocs or
Trade Block.
- FTA, Customs Markets, Common Market,
Economic Union,
212. Trade Policy According to Theory
• Harrod – Domar
Theory
Export in commodity Myanmar = Natural
requiring inputs that it’s Resource, Gas, unskilled
available in country and labour-intensive
import in commodity Thailand = Agricultural
requiring inputs that it’s output, labour –
scare in country. It intensive
depends on factor
endowment Malaysia = Natural Gas,
Petroleum
Example
213. Cont.
• Stopher – Samuelson Theorem and labor
movement
If country A and Subsequently, Wage
country B do a trade rate in Singapore,
under unequal wage Philippines, Thailand
rate – assuming Wage may be fall down
in A is higher than in B, according to this
trade will cause wage theory. Wage rate in
rate increase in B and Cambodia, Vietnam,
decrease in A. Laos may decline.
214.
215. Multilateral Trade Negotiaions and WTO
Purpose
• The global average tariff on manufactured goods was
reduced by about one third.
• Agricultural protection, which the industrialized countries
had always excluded from negotiations, was incorporated
for the first time.
• Participants agreed to phase out the Multi- Fiber
Agreement and the Agreement on Textiles and clothing,
which restricted textile and clothing imports in industrial
countries, with complete elimination by January 1, 200
216. Cont
• Industrial countries, especially the United
States, won stricter adherence to trade –
related intellectual property rights, or TRIPS,
that prevent the use of patented material and
the production of generic “copycat” products
without permission. They also won agreement
on new rule on investment and trade in
services.
217. Grand Bargain
The industrialized countries promised
• A significant reduction in tariffs
• The end of the Multi-fiber Agreement
• Reductions in the agricultural subsidies
The developing countries promised
• Larger reductions in their own tariff
• Agreement on new rules on investment, services,
and TRIPS
• Support for new WTO
218. Inclusive Growth Pro-poor Strategy
Economic growth This idea leads to
was shared by the avoidance of
poor not only the Kuznet’s Curve said
rich. It’s tackled that the more
down. It’s not economic growth
concentrated on take place, the more
only CEOs or is income inequality.
manager As inclusive growth
happened, income
inequality is believed
to be eradicated.