Bda china education

China For Profit Education & Training Sector:
Investment Analysis

BDA China Limited

Beijing, March 2009

© BDA 2009

www.bdaconnect.com
contact_us@bdaconnect.com

Table of Contents

• Three Drivers Propelling China’s Education & Training Market

• Investment Opportunities in the Education & Training Sector

• BDA Capabilities: Helping Investors Succeed in the Education Industry

2

China’s for-profit education & training market is driven by 3 key factors:
An emerging middle class, training for aspiring white-collar professionals &
blue-collar vocational training

Private Training & Education Market Size

Drivers of Private
Education Market USD BN
2008E-2013F
CAGR: 23%
• Burgeoning middle class and impact
of one child policy: Emerging middle
class fuelling growing desire and ability
to pay for education 2005-2008E
CAGR: 34% 115
• White collar: Demand for on-going, 89
75
private professional training in a 62
41 50
highly competitive job market 23 31
17

• Blue collar: Demand for vocational 2005 2006 2007 2008E 2009F 2010F 2011F 2012F 2013F
training before entering the job
market as a vast segment of the
population is unable to receive tertiary
education • The private training and education market as % of overall
education market: approx 23%-26% in 2007

Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China, Ministry of Education, BDA analysis 3

Driver #1: A burgeoning middle class and the impact of one child policy
are fuelling demand

• Emerging middle class: China’s middle class will represent 80% of the population by 2025 with considerable spending power
– Under 19 year olds today number 157 million in urban areas in China, vs. 82 million under 19s in the US

• China’s one-child policy: Chinese parents typically invest huge amounts in their children’s education
– A child is often the focus of spending of six adults (two parents, four grandparents) who may invest in the child in part to secure their own retirement
in a country without well developed social security or pension funds
– The one-child policy has been in place since 1979, and is unlikely to be scrapped soon although some exceptions are being applied

Share of Chinese Urban Households by Annual Income
-- Urban middle class* will account for up to 80% in 2025

5.6 3.3 Very Wealthy: >RMB 200,000 RMB, USD 29.4k annual income
5.7 9.4
7.7 Wealthy: RMB 100,000 – 200,000, USD 14.7k – 29.4k annual income
12.7 21.1

59.5 Upper Middle Class: RMB 40,000 – 100,000, USD 5.9k – 14.7k annual income

}
99.3 92.9 49.7
77.3

19.9 82 MM
Lower Middle Class: RMB 25,000 – 40,000, USD 3.7k – USD 5.9k annual income
23.2
9.7 Lowest Tier: < RMB 25,000 or USD 3.7k annual income

1985 1995 2005 2015 2025

* Middle Class = annual income between RMB 25,000 and 100,000 RMB

Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China, Ministry of Education, reports, BDA analysis 4

Middle class aspirations drive spending on children ranging from day care
to tutoring to cultural development

• Aspirations of Chinese parents: Ensuring that their children
have the best possible start
– Annual spending on piano lessons: Over RMB 10K (USD 1.4K),
more than 10% of the annual income of an Chinese upper-
level urban household
– The average annual disposable income of a top 10% Chinese
urban family is around RMB 84K (USD 12K)

• Main related sectors:
– Day Care
– International school
– English for children
– Tutoring
– Cultural pursuits: music, popular sports and art related


Driver #2: White collar training fuelled by intense competition amongst
graduates

• White collar training is booming fuelled by the highly competitive market for jobs. An estimated 40% of college graduates
participated in extra training sessions in 2007 to enhance their competitiveness in the employment market
− Large pool of college graduates: Increasing supply of college graduates and insufficient employment demand is creating
fierce competition for jobs. The proportion of college graduates remaining unemployed for up to a year increased from 18% to
35% from 2001-2009F
− Higher standards for employment: Many companies raised their standards of employment, resulting in many college
students and white collar workers requiring additional training

College Graduates Unemployed Proportion (2001-2009E) Higher Standards for Employment (2000 vs 2007)
-- Additional certificate confer advantages
Unemployed proportion of college graduates 35%
29% 30%
27%
Unemployed
In 2000 In 2007
18% 2.1 college
1.4 1.6 graduates1 Bachelor’s Degree Bachelor/Master’s Degree
1.1
+
Unit: MM
3.6 3.7 3.8 = Job Offer
3.0 employed
0.2 college TOEFL CPA Java
0.9 graduates GRE… CFA… C.NET…

2001 2006 2007 2008E 2009F
= Job Offer
Note1: “Unemployed college graduates” refer to graduates who remain
unemployed one year after graduation


White collar training for college students include English, IT training,
exam preparation and management training

• College students and white-collar workers view English as an
essential tool for advancing their careers
– People are willing to spend 1－2 months income on English
training each year

• Main related sectors:
– English training
– IT training
– Certificate training
TOEFL test prep course in an
English training school – Master entrance exam training
– Management training


Driver #3: Blue collar vocational training is thriving by serving the vast
majority of the 15-22 year olds not enrolled in public education

• Blue collar vocational training is meeting the demands of the rural masses and migrant laborers, comprising young adults who
do not enroll in public high schools, vocational schools, or colleges. China’s traditional economic development model is geared
towards laborers with basic professional skills, creating market opportunities for private vocational training schools to provide
the training needed by employers as well as to assist rural migrant laborers to find jobs.

Breakdown of 15-22 Years Old Population by Demographics
Education Status, 2006
• The majority are from rural areas and low tier cities
Population aged 15-22= 160 million • Low education background
• Lack of work experience and basic skills
17 million College
Students, 11%
7 million Public Private vocational Trainings Offer Better Jobs
Vocational School
Students, 4% Pre Training Post Training
• Construction worker • Auto mechanic
25 million • Waiter or waitress in • Cook in catering
Main low-end restaurant service/higher-end restaurant
Public High
School Students,
jobs • Security guard • Beautician or hairdresser
16% • Tour guide

Average
monthly RMB 600-800 RMB 1,000-1,200
wages
111MM (69%): People who do not enroll in public
high schools, public vocational schools, or colleges


Blue collar vocational training can have a major impact on laborers seeking
to increase their income

• Rural immigrant laborers invest heavily in vocational
training, aspiring to secure better jobs in big cities
– Annual tuition fees range from RMB 10k to 15k for auto repair
training schools
– The per capita total annual income in rural households is
around RMB 5K (USD 750)

• Main related sectors
– Auto repair
Auto repair class of an auto repair – Cooking schools
vocation school
– Basic computer training
– Beautician training
– Tour guide training


Table of Contents




10

Private education is a major supplier of kindergarten & employment related
training. Tutoring supplements public sector school teaching.

Private Sector
Sectors Key Features % by enrollments
• Less regulated: Pricing is mainly decided by the kindergarten management
• Less price sensitive: Annual tuition ranges from several thousand RMB to tens of thousands
Kindergarten 37%
• Shortage of public kindergarten resources: Leaves room for private players
• Fragmented market: No nationally recognized brands

• Dominated by public schools: Especially in primary and junior high schools
Primary • Long term business: Establishing a track record and credibility takes time
School & 4%-10%
High School • Large opportunity exists in supplementary services: Prosperous tutoring sector
• High barrier for investment in Grade 1-9: Compulsory education is closed to foreign investment
• Public school dominates, but lacks flexibility to meet dynamic market demand
Vocational
• Opportunity created by privatization of public schools 13%
School
• Low entry barrier: Vocational schools such as auto repair schools do not need licenses
• High entry barrier: The government is unlikely to issue new licenses
College 8%
• Low ROI: Investment is typically paid back in 10 to 15 years
• Dominated by private sector
• Famous national brands already exist, such as New Oriental in English training sector and Aptech
Employment in IT training sector, still account for a small market share – fragmentation dominates >80%
• Customers include both individual and companies
• Responds fast to dynamic market demand


China has four dynamic for-profit education subsectors: K-12, Vocational,
IT & English training

Chinese Education Market
K-12 Education

Vocational Training

IT Training
English Training

12

K-12: Two sub-sectors stand out - day care & international schools

Investment Highlights Investment Concerns
Selected Subsectors
Chinese K-12 Training &
Private College Market

RMB BN • Approx. 37% of urban kindergartens are private,
due to shortage of public kindergartens
• High annual tuition: USD 1,500 – 6,000 • CAPEX requirement: Multi-
Overall 05-08E • High profit margin of 23% to 40% million dollar CAPEX needed for
CAGR 19% • Good customer loyalty, low turnover rate of directly-operated kindergarten
kindergarten children expansion in first tier city
Day Care • Eased government regulation: Price is • Fragmented market
decided by kindergarten management
• Quick payback period, avg. 2-4 years

80
65 • Steady demand from expatriates in China: • Long payback period: Avg. 5
55
47 Shanghai: 30,000 foreign, school-aged children; to 7 years
Beijing: 8,000 students in international schools • Relatively lower margin:
• High annual Tuition: USD 20,000 to over The average operating margin
25,000 of a top tier international school
• Government policy: The government is with 3 years operation is about
2005 2006 2007 2008E International
unlikely to issue new licenses for international 12%-15%.
School
schools in the near term, creating barrier for new • CAPEX requirement: USD 2.5
entrants MM for 1,500 students capacity

……
Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China, Ministry of Education, CEIC, CIA Factbook, BDA analysis 13

Vocational training: Top tier schools are experiencing rapid expansion,
fierce competition is driving market consolidation

Market Size of Vocational Training in China, 2004-2010F
Sector Introduction
RMB BN 49
2004-2010E • Auto repair, culinary, car service, hairdressing,
CAGR 17% Main
42 mechanical skills, tourism, basic computer
35 Industries applications, etc.
30
25 Target • Students with low education backgrounds from low
22
20 tier cities and rural areas
Customers
• Beifang Car Repair Vocational Training School
Key players • New East Culinary Training School
• Shandong Lanxiang Vocational Training School
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008E 2009F 2010F

Investment Highlights: Investment Concerns:
• Strong market growth driver: • Low entry barrier. Vocational training schools do not
– Increasing demand from surplus of rural laborers require licenses from government.
– Large demand from job vacancies: annual demand of • Fragmented market:
700,000 workers in auto repair sector; over 30,000 – There are more than 20,000 private vocational
cooks needed annually for large-scale catering training schools in China and most of them are small-
enterprises scale schools with short operating records
• High Margin: 30%-40% operating margin for top tier – The market is consolidating, as competition becomes
vocational training schools tighter and number of top tier schools increases
• Growing tuition: 2008 annual tuition fee ranges from across China
RMB 8,000 to 10,000 for Tier One schools, up 20% from
2007


IT Training: Divided into Advance and IT segments

China IT training market Investment Highlights Investment Concerns

RMB MM • Large gap: 580,000 software-related
graduates vs. 250,000 vacancies in
Software 2007
Development
Advanced • High Tuition: USD 2,000 to 3,000
IT Training: (for six months)
Overall 05-08E 05-08 CAGR
CAGR 23% 984 • Low entry barrier
27.6% • China has one of the largest data
• Intense competition In
communication networks in the world
757 regional market
Network • Multiple hardware suppliers with • Growth limitation due to
583 different generations of technology the siloed course
474 co-exist, hence different certifications structure
5,016 are required
4,043 Basic IT
3,317 Application • Game sector size: RMB 11BN in 2007
2,726 Training: • YoY growth of entry–level
05-08 CAGR Game employees in 2007: 24%
22.5%
• Tuition: from USD 2,000 to 3,000 per
2005 2006 2007 2008E
year
• Fragmented market:
• Broad scope of IT courses: IT basic top player Xinhua only
Basic IT courses; Computer/Network has 7% market share in
Application application courses; etc. 2007
Training
• Tuition: USD 1,200 to 2,200 per year • Not easy to prove value
proposition


English training: Rapid growth, strong demand. Market is highly
fragmented, with many small players engaged in fierce competition

Fast Growth Market size Fragmented Market
Investment Highlights:
Market Size of English Training in China • Strong market growth
Market Share of New Oriental, 2007
2004-2008 E (RMB BN) • Immune to the economic slowdown
• High tuition fee: the tuition fee of
New Oriental, 5% oversea test prep course in leading
2004-2008E
CAGR 19% English training schools ranges from
30.0
RMB1,500-5,000
24.8
• High margin: 25%-30% operating
20.8
17.6 margin for top tier English training
15.0 schools
Others, 95%
Investment Concerns:
• Intense market competition
• Fragment market. Rewards are high
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008E
for a company to become a “new
• World largest English training market, with • Highly fragmented market with New Oriental”
over 300 million English learners 50,000 English training
• Strong market driver: institutions.
− Rising demand for study abroad. Over • New Oriental School, the market
0.2MM students went abroad to study in leader with a revenue of RMB
2008 (GRE,TOEFL,IELTS test prep training) 1.06 billion in 2007, had only
− Compulsary subject for Chinese students 5% market share in 2007.
(CET4, CET6 test prep training)
− Necessary skill in career development
(Cambridge Business English Certificate)


Table of Contents




17

In recent years, China’s education market has become one of the most
attractive areas for venture capitalists and private equity firms

VC Investment Breakdown for 2008 (Unit: USD MM)
As % of total VC
investment

IT 601 17.4%

Internet 553 16.0%

Media 459 13.3%

Education 407 11.8%

Energy 245 7.1%

Healthcare 224 6.5%

Telecom 219 6.4%

Retail 218 6.3%

Others 532 15.4%

• Education sector has became an important new sector for VC’s in addition to traditionally hot sectors including internet,
IT, and media

Source: Zero2IPO 18

In recent years, China’s education market has become one of the most
attractive area for venture capitalists and private equity firms

Amount Invested
Educational Institution Sector Focus (USD MM) Investor Time of Investment

Beijing Haoyue Group Private college 50 The Carlyle Group Nov 2008
Tarena Technologies Inc IT training > 10 IDGVC Nov 2008
Actis Capital LLP, Macquarie Capital Alliance
Ambow Education Group E-learning technology 103 Oct 2008
Group, Avenue Capital Group
Beijing Riverdeep International
Children English training 30 Istithmar Capital Aug 2008
Education Technology

Oriental Cambrige Education Group K-12 and University education 16 Ignition Partners May 2008

Beijing Huizhong Yizhi Science & Online game programming and
10 KPCB China Mar 2008
Technology graphic design trainings

Beijing Universal Education Group Co., Postgraduate entry exam tutoring
~20 Legend Capital Limited, quoia Capital China Feb 2008
Ltd service
Xueda Education Technology (Beijing)
Tutoring services 12 CDH Investment Oct 2007
Co., Ltd

Macquarie Capital Alliance Group, Cisco
Ambow Education Group E-learning technology 53 Oct 2007
Systems, CID Group, Avenue Capital Group

Eduask International Group IT training 10 SAIF Partners Sept 2007
Language and management
Neworld Education Group 20 The Carlyle Group Sept 2007
training
Qiming Venture Partners, SIG Asia
Beijing Juren Education Group K-12 tutoring services 20 Sept 2007
Investment

Source: BDA analysis 19

BDA has extensive experience in the education market and has identified
key success factors in evaluating an education institution

BDA Education Projects Experiences BDA Education Study Model
Projects
India Education market
• Market Demand
Vietnam Education market
Deal Sourcing
China Day Care market
• Regulation External
• Competition
China Vocational training market
Auto repairschool
Pre-Due
Management training institution
Diligence
Agency for studying abroad
Recruitment Teaching Result
-- Stable -- High-quality -- e.g. High
2 private international K-12 schools employment rate
-- Multi-channel -- Steady
Private tutoring school -- Consistent with
-- Easy-to-expand
recruiting
3 private IT related training schools commitments
Due Diligence Domestic private K-12 school Internal
Private English training school
Private independent college • Management Team: Innovative professionals with
industry expertise and enthusiasm
Private culinary training school
• Value proposition and reputation
M&A Advisory Private tutoring school
General Market entry strategy for 5 foreign
Strategy education institutions


BDA can help investors avoid risks including market risks, regulation risks,
operational risks, and growth limitations

Case study 1: Operational Risk
• Occupational injuries and accidents may
result from:
Student Riot
– Poor teaching quality
e.g. Vocational Training
– Lack of useful courses/services Commitment Reality Internal conflict
-- One-month free trial -- No free trial -- Physical punishment
– No student satisfaction monitor from teachers
-- Hours of practice -- Little practice
• BDA will help investors avoid these risks -- Good job -- No good job -- No refund
by:
– Analyzing value proposition
– Evaluating internal operation
– Discovering potential risks

Case study 2: Growth Limitations
• Education companies usually face growth ceiling
after initial stage of rapid growth due to: Growth Ceiling
– Fierce competition from new market entrants e.g. IT Training
– Dependence on a few star teachers
– Risks in choosing franchise model
• BDA will help investors: Embedded
Java .NET Network
– Evaluate growth potential System
Training Training … Training
Training
– Assess expansion strategy and capability of
education companies
– Make sound investment decision


BDA is ready to help clients find the next big success in China’s education
industry

In September 2006, New Oriental • Vocational training
(NYSE: EDU), China’s largest private In July 2008, China
Distance Education • IT training
English training group, listed on
NYSE. The company’s stock price (NYSE: DL), China’s leading • English training
grew over four times its IPO price of E-learning company, listed • K-12 education
USD $15 to over $70 today, with a on NYSE, raising USD • Art Education ……
market cap close to USD 3 billion. 61MM.

2006 2007 2008 2009

In Dec 2007, ChinaEdu (NASDAQ:
CEDU), China’s largest online degree
education company listed on Who will be next ?
NASDAQ, raising USD 68MM.


contact_us@bdaconnect.com

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Kerry Centre, 1 Guanghua Road
Beijing 100020 China

Tel: Beijing: +8610 8529 6164

www.bdaconnect.com

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