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A Brief History Of
      Cloud
   (..and a brief future of PaaS)
          James Watters
• James Watters: @wattersjames
• Last 10 years: strategy, business
  development, technology partnership roles
  at Sun and VMware

• Projects: Cloud Foundry, vCloud, Sun
  volume systems, Solaris

• Today is my personal take only....
• Agenda
 • What were the ‘Cloud’ marketing claims?
 • How are we doing against them?
 • So what’s next?
On the phone with
 AWS in 2007...
Goal: Get Solaris on
EC2 with payments
   back to Sun.
Amazon: Daily payouts,
 small-large amounts,
tiny % costs (DevPay)
Sun: ~$1200 cost for
  P.O., 45 day cycle
Keynote Cloud Jw
How’d we get there?
Keynote Cloud Jw
• Big $ transaction, for big transactions
   • RAS
   • Highly specialized IO
• Small transaction, for small(er) systems
   • Ease of +1 system scaling
   • Commodity IO
Cloud is not a
 mainframe
The ‘Cloud’ marketing
       claims:
     #1 Easy provisioning
   #2 ‘Commodity’ pricing
   # 3 ‘Elasticity and scaling’
Easy provisioning
“$1,279-per-hour, 30,000-core cluster built on
EC2 cloud”
Now estimated at ~80k/day
~2.4M x86 servers sold in
         2q11
•   In same period over ~5M
    virtual machines and cloud
    servers created.

•   New tool chains being born
    to manage new provisioning
    and server lifecycle
    philosophy...
#2 Commodity pricing
DRAM is a near
 commodity
-25%/yr last three years
Keynote Cloud Jw
“Is there a site that offers price history for various
Amazon Web Services such as EC2, Cloudfront,
etc?
I would like to be able to forecast that if something
like a small on demand EC2 instance costs $0.085
per hour today that it will likely half in cost to $0.043
per hour a year from now. Similarly if I have 10GB of
files in S3 storage how will the cost be affected over
a similar span of time? I can only imagine, that like
all technology, the cost will go down.”
“There hasn't really been a need for anyone to
make such a site since prices have only changed a
couple times in the many years EC2 has been
around. Less than once every other year! The
CPU-hour price of a small instance has only
changed once in the past 5 years -- from its
original $0.10 to $0.085.”
• RDS launch October 2009
 • 2009 XL DB Instance: .88/hr
 • Today: $.88/hr
 • Aligned to RAM pricing declines = $.49/hr
EC2 does cut prices,
strategically...you are at
      their mercy.
The great escape
Z-Cloud
Maybe Google is big
     enough?
or...not...2x-10x
Keynote Cloud Jw
Even at scale you still need
           EM4J!
Cloud myth debunked:
Scale is more important
     than software.
# 3 ‘Elastic’ Scalability
Follow The Alpha
     Geeks
Story of Urban Airship
• August 2009: Sent over one
  million production
  notifications

• August 2011: Sent over five
  billion production
  notifications

• Tracking over 300 million
  installations

• Started on EC2..
“What is the magic
bullet? Real hardware.
   know, I know...”
--Adam Lowry, Urban Airship
Cloud Abstraction: Meet Network
       Oversubscription...
Keynote Cloud Jw
Not Clear?
“EC2 hates your
      database”
--Adam Lowry, Urban Airship
But...
“I miss EC2’s ease of
         use”
Insiders hate the ‘cloud’
     term because it
  promises too much
Five years in, what’s
       next?
Moore's Law is for
       Hardware Only
• Does not apply to software
• Productivity gains not keeping up with hardware
  and bandwidth
• Writing software is hard, painful, and still very
  much a craft



                                               Credit: @chanezon
Moore's Law is for
 Hardware Only




                     Credit @chanezon
Ease of use as software
github.com/cloudfoundry
instances +10
   (in 5 seconds)
Appfog
“VMC needs to be our
     new developer
interface, I’m sick of VM
Clouds.”--SVP of top 5 Bank
Keynote Cloud Jw
Code push without VM
  complexity is the
 rightful evolution...
The PaaS layer must be
 portable and multi-
 cloud for #2, #3 to
      progress
@wattersjames

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Keynote Cloud Jw

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