1. WD-NACE data gathering approach
#2 – ECOSYSTEM HEALTH
The necessity of a multi-level
framework for understanding coastal
management
David Obura
with Stephen Oluoch, Brigid Mibei, Innocent 27th September 2012 London, UK
Wanyonyi, Risper Oteke
CORDIO East Africa;
www.cordioea.net;
dobura@cordioea.net
Principal partner – Kenya Marine and
Fisheries Research Institute
Dr. Renison Ruwa, Khyria Karama,
Emmanual Mbaru, Stephen Mwakiti

2. Outline
1. CORDIO (partner) description
2. Project context
3. Ecosystem services
• Ecosystem (coral reefs)
• Fisheries/resources
• Modeling approach
4. Climate change
5. Social resilience
6. Informing decision-making
• Forecasting hazards/threats
• Agent-based modelling
• Next steps – APESKA

3. Overview of CORDIO
Coastal
Oceans
Research &
Development
Indian
Ocean

4. • CORDIO project/network - Initiated in
1999 as a direct response to the 1998
El-Nino = caused mass bleaching &
mortality of corals in Indian Ocean.
• CORDIO East Africa - registered in
Kenya in 2003 as a non-profit company,
based in Mombasa, Kenya
• Focus on coral reefs – biological,
resource use, socio-economic,
management, policy, education
• Conservation of marine and coastal
ecosystems in WIO
• Generating knowledge to find solutions
that benefit both ecosystems and
people.

5. Project scope
Kenya activities
• Characterize the marine environment
(for understanding ecosystem services
at the project site), based on existing
information (PI time)
• Support data collection for
social/porverty component and
decision-making support analysis (2
Scope of activities/budget support
workshop including fieldwork and staff
time supported) • October 2010 – project inception
• Develop framework for modelling – • January 2011 – 1st project workshop in
domain, ABM (PI and staff time) Kenya
• September 2011 – field data collection,
supervized by N. Matin
• June 2012 – modelling workshop in
Mombasa, led by Richard Taylor,
Howard Noble
• September 2012 – final workshops –
London, Bangladesh, Kenya

6. Related/linked projects in the project site
Reef/ecosystem health
• Reef monitoring, 1999 – 2007 (CORDIO), 2006 - ongoing (Kenya Wildlife Service)
• Reef resilience, 2008 – 2012 (CORDIO)
Fisheries
• Catch monitoring, ongoing (Fisheries Dept, KMFRI); 1998 – 2006 (CORDIO)
• Fish spawning aggregations, 2008 – ongoing (CORDIO)
• Beach Management Units/management aspects, 1999 – ongoing (Fisheries
Dept., CORDIO, others)
Social adaptive capacity
• Climate hazards, 2007 – ongoing (CORDIO, Meteorology Dept., ICPAC/IGAD)
• Social adaptive capacity 2009 – 2012 (CORDIO, KMFRI, IUCN)
Other livelihood sectors
• Aquaculture (KMFRI, Kwetu)
• Mangroves (KMFRI, Kenya Forestry Service)
• Agriculture (various)
• Adult education (CORDIO, Adult education dept.)

7. A geographic framework for multi-level data collection
Ecosystems
• coral reefs
• seagrasses,
• mangoves
• terrestrial systems
Social
• fishing
• agriculture
• tourism
• Urbanization and
development
4 km

8. => Translated into Beach
Management Unit model

9. Ecosystem services  Poverty Alleviation
Ecosystems are the foundations of goods and services in local to national economies

10. The reef ecosystem – the primary system in the
Kenya case study
The coral reef ecosystem –
Is highly biodiverse and
biologically productive
Provides diverse
resources that
sustain fisheries
and other
economic activities
Supports many diverse
Provides renewable cultural and aesthetic
physical protection values of coastal societies
for tropical coastlines

11. These are undermined, for
example by coral bleaching
Coral bleaching is a tress response – can
lead to death
Bleaching is the loss of zooxanthellae
(commonly 60-90% loss); and/or
Reduction in photosynthetic pigments in
zooxanthellae (50-80% loss)
Bleaching is caused by:
temperature + UV light
salinity change
disease
sedimentation
pollution
Bleaching is patchy because:
• Susceptibility differs by species
& location
• Some areas are resistant or
resilient

12. From organism/ecological impacts to ecosystem services
Functions within the Functions at the community
coral-algal symbiosis; e.g. level; e.g. habitat creation,
reproduction, growth – nutrient cycling, microbial
‘local’ or small scale metabolism Wild et al. 2011
impacts

13. A primary interest is on fish – fisheries
A big unknown – climate impacts on fish translating into impacts
on fisheries/food production
- Direct effects on fish biology
- Population/community level shifts Sumaila et al, 2011
- Extinction risk
The main reef fishery
species not so
vulnerable to climate
change
But no studies have
been done on this in
the WIO

14. Potential modelling framework A) Unexploited resource
Multi-species, full size range, full biomass
Also – coral/algae as community indicators
INDICATORS
# species, biomass, size
r0
r1
B) Sustainably exploited resource
Multi-species, full size range, lower biomass
Fishers
Gears C) Over-exploited resource
Effort Fewer-species, smaller sizes, low biomass
D) Degraded resource
Few-species, small, very low biomass

15. Temperature – wind – rain
The broader IO is warming at approx. 0.1oC
per decade, with some hotspots (Red Sea,
Gulf of Aden, Arabian Sea, SW Madagascar)
Decadal trend in SST (sea surface
temperature) – Rouault, pers. comm.
Increased wind stress may result in higher
rainfall over the ocean, but less inland (East
Africa).
But stronger ENSO/IOD signals dominate the
pattern, with increased rainfall in the short
rains and decreased rainfall in the long rains.
Decadal trend in surface windstress in the
Indian Ocean. Backeberg et al. 2012.

16. Rainfall patterns already changing
Source: Tanzania Meteorological Dept
Majambo Jarurmani, MSc, Univ. of
Cape Town/CORDIO
Long rains – March-May, not
much change
Short rains – October -
December, increasing dry
spells.
But long range forecast is for
more rain in the short rains
and less in the long rains

17. In what ways are coastal
communities vulnerable to Human
climate change?
Social Financial
Social vulnerability analysis – to
various climate factors (rain,
temp, seasons)
Natural Physical
Embed this process in a
Sustainable Livelihoods Approach
(SLA) and Sustainable Livelihoods
Enhancement and Diversification
(SLED) framework

18. Prioritize climate hazards – existing and potential coping strategies (CRiSTAL)
Fishers vs. farmers (within the same community)

19. Priority climate hazards
Relevant to all: Climate variability, in the language of “the people” …
• High rainfall/floods
• Strong winds
Relevant to fishers:
• Strong waves
Relevant to farmers/others
• No rainfall/drought/heat
Distant seconds:
- Coral bleaching
- Mangrove recession/erosion
- Fishery species changes
We are not looking at the right things!

20. Climate hazard - forecasting
WIO bleaching product, CORDIO
www.cordioea.net/bleachingalert
1) Global indicators
2) Regional/inter-annual variability
indicators
3) 2-week to monthly forward
4) Present state of SST, clouds etc.
Three alert levels:
1. ‘watch’
2. Moderate bleaching
3. Strong bleaching
January February March April May June
Prepare for implementation Regular alerts and monitor Assess impact &
Assess coral bleaching
of response plan conditions in the field recovery

21. How well does it work?
Performance tests:
1. Accuracy
2. Probability of detection
3. Critical success index
4. Pierces's skill score
5. Probability of false detection
6. False alarm
7. Bias
Three alert levels:
1. ‘watch’
2. Moderate bleaching
Findings:
1. Good performance of Next steps:
3. Strong bleaching
level 2 (moderate 1. Expand the relevance
bleaching) and level 3 by covering primary
(strong bleaching) hazards to coastal
forecasts communities – storms,
rainfall, dry/wet spells
2. With higher number of
subregions, problem is of 2. Partnership with
network reports of – regional climate
OBSERVED RESULTS institutes (ICPAC –
Greater Horn of Africa),
UNESCO-IOC, national
meterological depts.

22. Informed decision-making
These provide the ecosystem/resource foundation or
basis for deeper analysis of the primary social work –
• Participatory approaches - decision mapping,
poverty analyses, etc.
• Information layers for models - BMU Agent Based
Model
Pointers to next steps –
Assessment of Key Ecosystem Services for integrated coastal zone management
planning for Poverty Alleviation (AKESPA)
• Produce an integrated coastal zone management (ICZM)
framework
• Use it to identify (and collect/derive) ‘missing’ data relating to
ecosystem functioning, services, and benefit
• Multiple modelling approaches (modules – GIS (spatial, structure),
stock-flow (Stella), agents (NetLogo)
• Simplicity/elegance of indicators, and relationships between
different modules in the GIS/models