21. Adaptation measures:
1. Agriculture = 23
2. Water = 20
3. Coastal zone = 15
4. Forestry = 12
5. Health = 11
Climate
Change
impacts in
Indonesia:
Based in 10
policy reports
incl. RPJMN,
ICCSR, NARASI
e.g. “Develop drought early
warning system” in National
Action Plan 2007
e.g. “impact study of climate
change to the agriculture” in ICCSR
2009 & National Action Plan 2007
22. KLH, 2010. Indonesia 2nd
National Communication
(UNFCCC).
22% of rice production
in Bali/East Java
Short wet season
Important &
vulnerable?
Climate Change Strategies Project
Sub-pro: Vulnerability assessment
24. Historical rice production in Bali
Year
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
Paddy
Harvested area
(ha)
155,049
147,942
148,025
145,294
142,663
141,577 7%
150,557
145,030
143,999
Paddy area
Production rate
(quintal/ha)
Production (ton)
53.33
826,838
53.35
789,232
54.70
809,688
54.60 8%
793,260
55.00
788,361
55.00
785,481
Not
56.00
840,891
sure
58.00
839,775
58.37
840,465
X productivity = ?
25. Soil-climate suitability for paddy
Paddy soil-climate suitability 1990-1999
20
%
Paddy soil-climate suitability 2000-2009
Soil-climate Suitability
by 20% in 20 years
= productivity?
26. “always
have enough
water”
“Not enough
water, only 1
harvesting”
“20% became
housing”
“not enough
water , so need
to rotate rice
and crop ”
“we never
fail rice for
20 years”
Conclusion: Rice production
decline?
29. Paddy soil-climate suitability 1990-1999
Paddy soil-climate suitability 2000-2009
Suitability/Rain (Exposure⇧)
If there is Paddy
Production loss
(Vulnerability⇧)
31. Different production levels with different factors
Totally ~ 53 kg/acre Totally ~ 45 kg/acre
Agricultural training = 4kg
15%
27%
cooperative = 5kg
Agricultural training = 4kg
2 cycle paddy
production = 9kg
With Infari 13 seed =
6kg
Average low Average low
productive
productive
farmer = 35kg farmer = 35kg
12%
19%
32. Potential weighting factors for adaptive capacity
2 cycle
Lowland
0.27
0.26
Organic
&Inorga
nic
0.26
Infari 13
0.19
Inorganic
Coopera
tive
0.17
0.15
Training
Owner
0.12
0.09
Stronger
tons/ha
In-&organic = 4.45
Inorganic = 2.51
(Increasing 77.3%)
In-&organic = 5.28
Inorganic = 3.52
(increasing 50%)
enhanced by 21% and
24%
Resource
Year
Place
IPB
2008-2009
Bogor
BPTP/South Sulawesi
2004
Buru Island (Maluku)
Nanjing Agricultural Uni
1987-2005
Tai Lake Region, China
40. 1. Select units affected
2. Select disasters
3. Rank them
4. Choose 3 units
41. Scaling the impact on exposure units
3 = significant impact on the exposure unit
2 = medium impact on the exposure unit
1 = low impact on the exposure unit
0 = no impact on the exposure unit
45. Risky without proper Risky without proper
timing.
variety selection.
Abnormal climate
(El Nino)
Delayed wetseason
Drier dryseason
46. 11%
In Bali
NAYLOR, R.L., BATTISTI, D.S., VIMONT, D.J., FALCON, W.P. and
BURKE, M.B., 2007. Assessing risks of climate variability and
climate change for Indonesian rice agriculture
47. 2%
In Bali
NAYLOR, R.L., BATTISTI, D.S., VIMONT, D.J., FALCON, W.P. and
BURKE, M.B., 2007. Assessing risks of climate variability and
climate change for Indonesian rice agriculture
49. 5 most and 5 least productive villages
100.00%
90.00%
80.00%
70.00%
60.00%
50.00%
40.00%
30.00%
20.00%
10.00%
0.00%
two.cyc lowlan
le
d
infari
only.in cooper agritrai
organic ative
n
owner
Most productive 71.43% 100.00% 22.86% 11.43% 51.43% 91.43% 62.86%
Least productive 6.90% 24.14% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 48.28% 34.48%
50. Rice production in Indonesia
Production x 2 in
30 years
Dec - Mar
Wet
Slow down in
production
Dry
Population 300M in
2045
Sep - Nov
May - July
Food security
KonsepKerentananperubahaniklimterhadapproduksipadidi Bali berdasarkantiga sub komponenyaitu exposure, sensitivity, dan adaptive capacity. Nilaieksposuredidapatkandari data kesesuaianlahanberdasarkananalisis data hujandansuhu. Sedangkannilaisensitivitasdarisebarandaerahtanamanpaditerkini.Nilai Adaptive Capacity diperolehdari 2 cycle cropping, lowland, organic & inorganic fertilizer, infari 13 seed, inorganic fertilizer, cooperative, agriculture training, ownership of land.
Kejadian El Nino dapatmenyebabkanmundurnyaawalmusimhujandansemakinkeringnyamusimkemaraudiwilayah Indonesia,termasukdaerah Bali.Hal inilah yang dapatmempengaruhikondisipertaniandi Bali.
Berdasarkanhasilpenelitian Naylor dkkmenunjukkanbahwaketikaterjadi El Nino beberapadaerahJawadan Bali mengalamiketerlambatanAwalMusimHujansekitar 1 bulanataulebihdanhaltersebutmenyebabkanmenurunnyaproduktifitaspadisekitar6.5% untukjawabaratdantengahserta 11% untukJawatimurdan Bali.
Berdasarkanhasilpengamatan, jikaterjadipenurunancurahhujansebesar 20 % selamabulan April-JunidapatmengurangidaerahtanamdiJawadan Bali sekitar 2 %. Saatini, hanyasedikitdaerah yang untuktanampadiselamamusimkemarau, akantetapiterlambatnyamusimpolatanamdapatberubahjikacurahhujanselamaperiodeinibertambahatauberkurangsecarasignifikanin the future.
DiperlukanperhatiankhususterhadapKejadian El Nino inidikarenakandapatmenyebabkanterlambatnyaawalmusimsekitar 2 bulanSelainitu, ENSO dapatdigunakansebagaiindeksuntuktanamanpadidanjagungdi Indonesia {Boer, R. 2009}. Dimananilaikorelasinegatifantaraproduksipadidansuhumukalaut yang artinyaketikasuhumukalauttinggimakaproduksipadirendah.