An overview of natural hazards, focusing on tectonic and early warning systmes; leans very heavily on the article: "Global early warning systems for natural hazards: systematic and people-centred By Re?d Basher*"i

1. GLOBAL EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS
FOR NATURAL HAZARDS:
SYSTEMATIC AND PEOPLE-CENTRED
By Reid Basher et al!
To be effective, early warning systems for natural hazards need to have not only a
sound scientific and technical basis, but also a strong focus on the people exposed to
risk, and with a systems approach that incorporates all of the relevant factors in that
risk, whether arising from the natural hazards or social vulnerabilities, and from short-
term or long-term processes.

2. WHERE AND WHO SHOULD BE
PREPARED?

3. 1. DISASTERS AND DISASTER
TRENDS
A natural disaster is……
'a serious disruption of the functioning of a community or a society causing
widespread human, material, economic or environmental losses which
exceed the ability of the affected community or society to cope using its own
resources' (ISDR 2004).

5. 1. DISASTERS AND DISASTER
TRENDS
A disaster thus arises from the combination of the hazard event or episode, the
conditions of vulnerability to that hazard and the insufficiency of capacity or
measures to cope with the hazard.
From this perspective, the term 'natural disaster' is an oxymoron, as the
vulnerability and coping factors in the equation are within human control to
some degree and therefore are not 'natural'.

6. THE CONTEXT OF NATURAL
HAZARDS IN THE CONTINUUM OF
HUMAN EXPERIENCE

7. DEFINING RISK
Hazard (probability) x Loss (expected)
RISK = Preparedness (loss mitigation)

8. VULNERABILITY
Economic issues
• Tackle social inequalities – long goal
• Self protection – “bottom up”
“Capacity” – ISDR (UN International Strategy for Disaster Reduction)
• “A combination of all the strengths and resources available within a community, society
or organisation that can reduce the level of risk, or effect of a disaster.”
• “The means by which people use the available resources and their abilities to to face
hazardous events”

9. NATURAL HAZARD PERCEPTION

10. DIFFERENTIAL VULNERABILITY

11. HUMAN SYSTEM FAILURE?
Timmerman (1981)
“Systems fail”
• Resilience – not a simple as it seems – Katrina v. Bam – c.f. LA
• Reliability – of human systems to cope
Blaikie (1994)
“People not systems fail”
• “the characteristics of a person or group in terms of their capacity to anticipate, cope with, resist and
recover from the impact of a natural hazard”
• Young, old, male, female, LEDC, MEDC

12. 1. DISASTERS AND DISASTER
TRENDS
Disasters disproportionately affect poor people and poor countries and are increasingly recognized
as a major handicap to the development of many countries.

16. “PHILOSOPHY AS ACTIONS “(PARK
1992)
Why are people at risk?
• Unpredictability
• Limit of alternatives
• Changing danger
• Russian roulette
• Cost – Benefit analysis

17. 1. DISASTERS AND DISASTER
TRENDS
Disaster impacts are generally increasing as a result of the combination of increasing
populations, greater concentrations of people and assets in vulnerable areas, greater use of
insurance and the modification and degradation of natural environments, such as floodplain
settlement, coastal exploitation, wetland destruction, river channelling, deforestation, soil erosion
and fertility decline. Vulnerability to hazards is exacerbated by poverty, disease, conflict and

18. DEFINING RISK
Hazard (probability) x Loss (expected)
RISK = Preparedness (loss mitigation)

19. 1. DISASTERS AND DISASTER
TRENDS
Prior to that date (Indian
Ocean tsunami of Boxing
Day 2004), the trend in death
rates since the 1950s was
downward, as a result of
improving early warning
systems, better preparedness
and response, including
systematic food aid systems.
Together these now avoid the
massive famines and flood
losses that earlier prevailed.

20. THE HUMAN RESPONSE TO
NATURAL HAZARDS
The individual, local, regional, national and now global responses to the
hazards threat will be a function of all or some of the following:
• nature of the hazard
• past experience of the hazard / other hazards
• hazard perception – of decision-makers and public
• economic ability to take action
• technological resources
• knowledge of available options
• social and political framework
• relative importance of hazard threat compared to jobs, education, defence…

21. The Human Response to Hazards
3 broad categories of response:
1. Prevent or modify the EVENT
• flood control, lava diversion, cloud seeding etc
• significant impact unlikely given current understanding & technology
2. Modify human VULNERABILITY
• Hazard-resistant design (aseismic buildings, sea walls etc)
• Monitoring, prediction & warning
• Community preparedness (education, evacuation, shelter…..)
• Land use planning (hazard zonation)
3. Modify / share the LOSSES
• International aid
• National funding for disasters
• Hazard insurance

24. 2. EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS AND
THEIR ELEMENTS
The expression 'early warning' is
used in many fields to mean the
provision of information on an
emerging dangerous circumstance
where that information can enable
action in advance to reduce the risks
involved.
'the provision of timely and
effective information, through
identified institutions, that allows
individuals exposed to a hazard to
take action to avoid or reduce their
risk and prepare for effective
response' (ISDR 2004).

25. 2. EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS AND
THEIR ELEMENTS
To be effective and complete, an early warning system needs to comprise four
interacting elements (ISDR-PPEW 2005 a), as shown in figure 2, namely: (i) risk
knowledge, (ii) monitoring and warning service, (iii) dissemination and
communication and (iv) response capability

26. 2. EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS AND
THEIR ELEMENTS
High-quality predictions by themselves are
insufficient to achieve the desired reduction in
losses and impacts.
Failures in early warning systems typically occur
in the communication and preparedness
elements. E.g. Katrina & New Orleans, Nevado
del Ruiz, Columbia and in Boxing Day tsunami it
was in all four elements!
It should be noted that in order to sustain the
four elements over the long run, it is necessary to
have strong political commitment and durable
institutional capacities, which in turn depend on
public awareness and an appreciation of the
benefits of effective warning systems.

27. Public awareness and support is often high immediately after a major
disaster event; such moments can be capitalized on to strengthen and
secure the sustainability of early warning systems.

28. 3. A BROADER VIEW OF NATURAL
RISK
From this perspective it is desirable to monitor and provide early warning and foresight not
only on the short-term precipitating hazards and geophysical conditions but also on the
relevant longer-term factors such as declining environmental state, risk-raising development
practices and projects, risk-altering policy changes, the status of social communications
and capacities, trends in food markets, settlement trends and migration, conflict and health
status. This involves a wide range of time frames, as illustrated in table 1, and diverse
methodologies for monitoring and forecasting.

29. 4. THE LINEAR PARADIGM OF MODEL-
BASED EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS
The classic “Risk Management
Cycle” (Smith, 1996)
In the linear model based
early-warning systems, Smith
assumes that the cycle ends
and does not contain the
essential feedback that is
characteristic of people-
centred approaches.

30. 4. THE LINEAR PARADIGM OF MODEL-
BASED EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS
The role of modelling
At the heart of all early warning systems is some sort of model that describes the
relevant features of the hazard phenomenon and its impacts, particularly their time
evolution. The model provides the means to make projections of what might happen in
the future and therefore what actions might be desirable in response.
Models may be as elaborate as the physics-based global numerical weather prediction
models, or as straightforward as 'common knowledge' mental models (e.g. that the
noisy approaching tsunami wave will arrive in a few minutes). They may be slowly
evolving, as in a drought model where the loss of soil moisture may occur over months,
or very rapid, such as in an earthquake where the differential speed of electromagnetic
signals relative to seismic waves can be used to automatically shut down a distant
sensitive system a few seconds before damaging stresses occur.

31. 4. THE LINEAR PARADIGM OF MODEL-
BASED EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS
All models are driven by a specification of an initial state,
which must be obtained by observations . CHAOS
Observation systems can be expensive to install and operate
and are often rather inadequate, especially in poorer countries.
Warnings are, therefore, inherently probabilistic, even if based
on sound physics and presented in a categorical format

32. 4. THE LINEAR PARADIGM OF MODEL-
BASED EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS
A very different example to illustrate these
issues is that of tsunami early warning systems,
as shown in table 2. Currently, tsunami
warnings mostly are based on simple statistical
relationships with precursor seismic
observations, but these latter observations do
not allow accurate prediction of the oceanic
response, and so the false warning rates are
high and the probability characteristics are
poorly known. Usually, the warnings are
provided only in categorical forms that usually
require immediate response action. However,
developments in ocean observation systems
and in ocean wave propagation and coastal
inundation models are in place to improve this
situation in the near future (Titov et al. 2005).

34. 5. SHORTCOMINGS OF THE LINEAR
PARADIGM
People centred early warning systems need for multiple level participation and support:
This will require the coordinated participation of many different types of organizations,
bound by a consensus of commitment to the 'people-centred' concept, and to the idea of
an integrated system that is measured by its performance namely protecting those at risk.

35. 6. AN INTEGRATED SYSTEMS MODEL
FOR EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS

36. 7. SYSTEMS-ORIENTED RESEARCH
NEEDS FOR EARLY WARNING
There is a need for more systemic, cross cutting and applied research, including on the
following topics:
(i) development and use of geospatial data models, risk maps and scenarios,
(ii) cost-effective observations systems,
(iii) data generation and assimilation (e.g. bathymetry for tsunami models),
(iv) improvement of core prediction system models and prediction tools,
(v) warning decision system tools for disaster managers,
(vi) management under warning uncertainty,
(vii) evaluation and comparison of warning communication methods,
(viii) models of human response behaviour including evacuations,
(ix) visualization of impacts and response options for community preparedness,
(x) operationalization of the 'all-hazards' approach,
(xi) role of early warning as an adaptation to climate change,
(xii) warning system performance, indicators, benchmarks,
(xiii) economic assessments of warning system effectiveness

37. 8. RECENT MOVES TO DEVELOP
BETTER EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS
The December 2004 tsunami shone an intense spotlight on questions of early warning
systems and preparedness, leading most notably to the call by United Nations Secretary
General Kofi Annan in January 2005 for a global warning system for all hazards with no
country left out. This was to be followed later in the year by his request to the International
Strategy for Disaster Reduction (ISDR) secretariat to coordinate a global survey of early
warning systems, with a view to identifying gaps and opportunities, as a basis for
developing such global capacities (UN 2005 a). Meanwhile, negotiations by states over 2004
culminated in a major international agreement on disaster risk reduction at the World
Conference on Disaster Reduction in Kobe, Japan, 18-22 January 2005, namely the Hyogo
Framework for Action 2005-2015: building the resilience of nations and communities to
disasters (UN 20056). The topic of risk and early warning is one of its five priority areas for
action. Leading UN agencies announced at the conference the launch of an International
Early Warning Programme (IEWP), as a vehicle to stimulate and coordinate cooperative
initiatives to advance early warning methodology and to build early warning capacities
(ISDR-PPEW 2005b). Shortly afterwards, Germany offered to host a third International
Conference on Early Warning (EWC III) under UN auspices (see www.ewc3.org). Rapid
progress hats been made on developing a tsunami warning system for the Indian Ocean,

39. 8. RECENT MOVES TO DEVELOP
BETTER EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS
The Institutional response

40. 8. RECENT MOVES TO DEVELOP
BETTER EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS
In early 2005, the British Government established a Natural Hazard Working Group under
the guidance of the government chief scientist to advise on the mechanisms that could be
established for the detection and early warning of global physical natural hazards,
particularly those hazards that could have high global or regional impact, and including
international mechanisms needed to enable the international science community to advise
governments (UK-DTI 2005)

41. 9. INSTITUTIONAL FRAMEWORKS
The task of putting science to work in policy and practice can only be achieved through sound
institutional mechanismsat national, regional and international levels. The major failures of early
warning systems over recent times have been failures largely of institutions rather than science.
Institutions are required to capture and sustain political commitment, to capitalize on and apply
existing scientific knowledge, to assess risks and manage investments in systems, to globalize and
systematize early warning systems, and to guide and resource underpinning scientific research.
The UN global survey of early warning systems will be an important step toward setting out
gaps and needs in respect to early warning systems globally. It is clear that any globally
comprehensive warning capacity will not be a centrally managed system, but will build on
and strengthen existing institutional arrangements, particularly the operational mandates of
WMO, UNESCO, the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), the UN Environment
Programme (UNEP), the member bodies of the International Council of Scientific Unions
(ICSU), and the Group on Earth Observations (GEO?see www.geosec.org), and on the
organizational contexts of the ISDR and the Hyogo Framework. The embryonic IEWP
provides a vehicle to coordinate and focus energy on systemic issues and capacity building
in early warning systems development.

42. IDNDR POLICY GOALS
Encourage policies that reduce vulnerability
1. Land use: plans should be put into operation that limit, or ban, building upon hazardous areas such as steep
slopes, river flood plains and faulted areas.
2. Risk and disaster impact assessments: on the basis of these, special programmes can be designed to reduce
vulnerability and to use the results in development projects.
3. Design, construction and maintenance of buildings and other structures: give advice and financial incentives
to encourage safe and cost-effective buildings and enforce construction regulations.
Ensure that governments, at national and local level, are prepared to cope with a hazard
event
1. Emergency management planning: roles and responsibilities in emergencies should be clearly identified.
2. Strengthen organizations: money should be put forward to train disaster managers and to provide staff to
enforce regulations. All equipment for handling the impact of disasters should be main-tained and updated
whenever possible.
3. Communications: channels should be established for early warn-ings, evacuations and relief measures. Local
decision-makers should be made aware of all scientific evidence, where available, and its value to them

43. IDNDR POLICY GOALS
Ensure that the community is well prepared
1. Public awareness and education: make people aware that they have to protect themselves. Education
campaigns should be instituted in order to raise public awareness about hazard risks, and what preparatory
and preventive measures people should be taking.
2. Community-based programmes and solutions: communities, parti-cularly vulnerable ones, should be
consulted in order to identify local needs and feasible solutions.
3. Buildings with hazardous substances: buildings such as nuclear power stations and chemical stores should be
retrofitted and well maintained. It could be possible to consider relocation of some buildings that fall into
this category to less vulnerable sites.

44. IDNDR POLICY GOALS
Special programmes for high-risk situations
1. There are a number of areas where special attention should be given as a priority. They
include:
2. Essential facilities: electricity, gas water, telecommunications, hospitals and schools. Existing
buildings to be retrofitted, new structures to have disaster-resistant devices built in to them.
Back-up systems need to be constructed.
3. High-risk groups: programmes should focus on groups such as children, the elderly and
those on low-incomes, with targeted edu-cation programmes, specific financial help and
specialised health care.
4. Informal settlements: within the cities of LEDCs, informal settle-ments are the areas often
most at risk from hazards having been constructed on such sites as low-lying marshy land
and steep slopes.
5. Cultural treasures/heritage: as these cannot be replaced, they will need special precautions
to make sure that they survive the hazard event.

45. DISASTER RELIEF LINKS
• Stopping crises from becoming catastrophes Can disaster management be better integrated with development?
http://www.id21.org/society/s10atp1g1.html
• Christian Aid - Facing up to the storm Lessons from Orissa and Gujerat.
http://www.christianaid.org.uk/indepth/0307stor/facinguptothestorm.pdf
• Seeds - India Promotes people oriented campaigns to help communities prepare themselves in the event of natural or manmade disasters.
http://www.seedsindia.org/
• Thunderbirds are No Go! High-tech search-and-rescue teams are ready to fly out of Western countries as soon as disaster strikes on the
other side of the world. But would they do better to stay at home? Article from New Internationalist.
http://www.newint.org/issue222/thunderbirds.htm August 1991 issue on Disasters http://www.newint.org/issue222/contents.htm
• Disaster diplomacy A radical perspective from a group of academics.Can disasters induce international cooperation amongst enemy
countries? http://www.arct.cam.ac.uk/disasterdiplomacy/index.html
• The Future of Aid, 2005-2010: challenges and choices Overseas Development Institute report covering the wider issues (Feb 2004).
http://www.odi.org.uk/speeches/future_of_aid/meeting_report_29january04.html
• Time to cut the UK's aid strings Open letter - War on Want (1st Dec 2004). http://www.waronwant.org/?lid=9073
• UN scepticism The United Nations -- along with international aid agencies and non-governmental organisations (NGOs) -- is expressing
scepticism over the eventual delivery of the hefty 2.5 billion dollars in pledges made by donors for tsunami disaster relief operations in
south and southeast Asia. http://www.ipsnews.net/interna.asp?idnews=26894
• Oxfam press release details how donor governments do not always meet funding pledges.
http://www.oxfam.org.uk/press/releases/asiaquake_support_311204.htm
• Has Kashmir aid gone too far? BBC Jan 12 2006 http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/south_asia/4599540.stm Kashmir’s earthquake:
don’t care or don’t know? Beena Sarwar, Open Democracy article Nov 2005 http://www.opendemocracy.net/conflict-
india_pakistan/earthquake_relief_3024.jsp
•
• DEC report (Jan 2006) Criticism of tsunami spending http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk/4604646.stm DEC response
http://www.dec.org.uk/index.cfm/asset_id,1689/pr,1 The report http://www.dec.org.uk/uploads/documents/dectsunaACFF.pdf

46. RECOVERY AGENCIES - NGOS
Agencies involved in relief work
Action Aid
Cafod (Catholic Church)
Care International
Christian Aid
Global giving
International Federation of the Red Cross
Islamic Relief
Medecins Sans Frontieres
Muslim Hands
Oxfam
Save The Children
Unicef
World Vision

47. RECOVERY PAGES
Agencies involved in reconstruction work
• What is needed for sustainable recovery? World conference at Kobe (Jan 05) draft report.
http://www.unisdr.org/wcdr/thematic-sessions/hlrt-reports/high-level-round-table-
3.pdf
• UN FAO Tsunami page has details of reconstruction projects
http://www.fao.org/tsunami/ For
• Oxfam The tsunami page
http://oxfam.org.uk/what_we_do/emergencies/country/asiaquake/index.htm "One area
that has so far received less attention is the gender impact of the tsunami, and its impact on
women in particular."
http://oxfam.org.uk/what_we_do/issues/conflict_disasters/bn_tsunami_women.htm
• Action Aid Asia page http://www.actionaid.org/asia/
• World Health Organisation Three months on - report planning for future.
http://www.who.int/hac/crises/international/asia_tsunami/3months/en/index.htm
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