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Boeing World Air Cargo Forecast 2004  /  2005 SLIDES Questions?  Please contact Tom Crabtree at +1 206 766 2576 Boeing Commercial Airplanes September 2004
Major Air Cargo Markets Rebounded Strongly During the First Half of 2004 Monthly percentage of change over prior year
[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],2003 Air Freight Growth by Major Market
Yield Trends Reflect Both  Productivity Gains and Industry Competition Yield Index (1985 = 1) Passenger Yield 1985-2003:  -1.7% 1993-2003:  -2.4% Freight Yield 1985-2003:  -2.4% 1993-2003:  -0.5%
Over 8% of World Air Cargo  Traffic Moved by ACMI Providers RTKs, billions 17.9% average annual growth
International   Express Traffic Growth Has Slowed RTKs, billions
World Air Cargo Traffic Will Triple Over the Next 20 Years History Forecast Average annual growth percentage 2003 to 2023 High 7.4% Base 6.2% Low 5.0% 6.1% growth per year RTKs, billions
Widebody Freighters Dominate the Future Fleet 2023 3,456  freighters 40% 31% 29% 2003 1,766  freighters 24% 56% 20% Standard-body (<50 tons) Medium widebody (40-65 tons) Large (>65 tons)
World Economic Growth, GDP Annual Change, Percentage
World Air Freight,   RTKs Annual Change, Percentage
World Air Freight Yield Annual change, percentage
2003 Domicile Market Share 156.5 billion RTKs
World Scheduled Air Freight RTKs, billions
World Charter Air Freight RTKs, billions
Demand “Pulls” Air Cargo Traffic U Importer Economic Activity Products Air/sea/land costs Exchange rates Relative prices ( ( ( ( Exporter ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( (
Forces and Constraints for Air Cargo Growth Trade quotas and restrictions Currency revaluation's Air and surface labor stoppages Renegotiated bilaterals Industry relocation Directional Imbalances Surface competition Airport curfews New  commodities Widebody freighters, combis, and lower decks Airline market research Airline market and shipper education Shipper utilization Proliferation of points served &quot;Just in time&quot;&quot; concepts Express  market Deregulation Oil price and availability National development programs New trade relationships Export promotion World and regional GDP growth
Air Cargo Growth is Influenced by GDP Growth RTKs annual growth, percentage GDP annual growth, percentage
Economic Growth History Forecast
World GDP Growth Growth, annual percentage change for 2003 through 2023
World Air Freight Will Grow 6.3% Per Year Through 2023 History Forecast Average annual growth percentage 2003 to 2023 High 7.5% Base 6.3% Low 5.1% 6.2% growth per year RTKs, billions
World Airmail Will Grow 2.9% Per Year Through 2023 History Forecast Average annual growth percentage 2003 to 2023 High 3.3% Base 2.9% Low 2.4% 2.6% growth per year RTKs, billions
World Air Cargo (Freight and Mail) Will Grow 6.2% Per Year Through 2023 History Forecast Average annual growth percentage 2003 to 2023 High 7.4% Base 6.2% Low 5.0% 6.1% growth per year RTKs, billions
Share of World Market By Carrier Domicile U.S. 29.8% Non-U.S. 70.2% U.S. 23.4% Non-U.S. 76.6%
Domicile Share of International/Domestic Traffic International Domestic Non-U.S. 65.5% U.S. 16.4% Non U.S. 4.7% U.S. 13.4% International Domestic Non-U.S. 69.2% U.S. 14.5% U.S. 8.9% Non U.S. 7.4%
Asia Cargo Markets Will Continue to  Lead the Industry … Growth, percentage World Average, 6.2%
… and Increase Their Share of World Cargo Share of world total market, RTKs percentage Europe-Asia North America-Europe Europe-Middle East Europe-Southwest Asia North America-Latin America Intra-Europe
Express Service Dominates the US Air Cargo Market RTKs, billions
Canada’s GDP Growth Is a Strong  Indicator of Domestic Air Cargo Growth Growth, percentage *2003 cargo growth estimate
Northbound Trans-Border Tonnage  Continues to Exceed Southbound Tonnage Tonnes, thousands
Airlines Supplement Available  Cargo Capacity With Truck Flights
Trucking Has Grown Steadily,  While Air Cargo Traffic Growth Has Slowed Sources: IATA and American Trucking Associations U.S. domestic trucking traffic , million (tonnes) U.S. domestic air cargo traffic, million (tonnes) *Figures include for-hire and private carriage
A Long-Term Perspective Reveals a  Return to Accustomed GDP Growth Rates 1996 U.S. Dollars
Transborder Air Cargo Traffic Between  U.S. and Canada is Projected to Grow  6.8% Percent Growth Over the Next 20 Years RTKs, billions 6.5% growth per year History Forecast Average annual growth percentage 2003 to 2023  High 8.5% Base 6.8% Low 5.1%
U.S. Domestic Market Will Maintain Steady Growth of 4.0% Over the Forecast Period RTKs, billions 2.7% growth per year Forecast History Average annual growth percentage 2003 to 2023  High 5.1% Base 4.0% Low 2.8%
Domestic Canada Air Cargo Market Will  Grow 2.6% for the Forecast Period RTKs, billions 2.8% growth per year Forecast History Average annual growth percentage 2003 to 2023  High 3.2% Base 2.6% Low 2.0%
Trade With North America Is Distributed Unevenly Among Latin American Regions Tonnes, thousands
US – Latin America Air Trade Grew 36.9% In January Through June 2004 Compared With January Through June 2003 Monthly change in air cargo tonnage, year over year, percent
North America Trade With Latin America Can Be Classified Into Three Subregions 731,000 tonnes *Less than 1% each: Bolivia, Fr. Guiana, Guyana, Suriname 296,000 tonnes *Less than 1% each: Belize 92,000 tonnes *Less than 1% each: Anguilla, Antigua & Barbuda, British V.I., Cayman Islands, Dominica, Guadeloupe, Martinique, Montserrat, St. Lucia, St. Vincent & the Grenadines, Turks & Caicos Islands **Between 1 – 2% each: Aruba, Cuba, Grenada ***Between 2 – 3% each: Bahamas, Bermuda, Neth. Antilles, St. Kitts & Nevis Mexico 55% Nicaragua 4% Panama 6% * Costa Rica 16% El Salvador 5% Honduras 5% Guatemala 9% Dominican  Republic 45% Haiti 7% Jamaica 12% Trinidad and Tobago 13% * Barbados 3% ** *** Brazil 22% Chile 22% Columbia 25% Ecuador 9% Peru 12% Uruguay 1% Venezuela 4% * Argentina  5%
Consumer Goods Dominate North America-Latin America Northbound Flows; Packages and Manufacturing Requirements Dominate Southbound 721,000 tonnes 399,000 tonnes
Trade Between Central America and North America Will Grow 6.3% per Year Tonnes, thousands 4.8% growth per year Forecast History 1.9% growth per year Average annual growth percentage 2003 to 2023  Northbound  6.5% Southbound 6.1%
Trade Between South America and North America Will Grow 6.0% per Year Tonnes, thousands 5.3% growth per year Forecast History -0.5% growth per year Average annual growth percentage 2003 to 2023  Northbound  6.2% Southbound 5.6%
Trade Between the Caribbean and North America Will Grow 2.1% per Year Tonnes, thousands -2.0% growth per year Forecast History Average annual growth percentage 2003 to 2023  Northbound  2.1% Southbound 2.1% 1.4% growth per year
Europe-USA Air Cargo Ended 2.5% on the Up Side After 2 Years of Decline   Monthly change in air cargo tonnage year over year, percentage
Five Countries Account for 71% of Europe - North America Air Trade 2.5 million tonnes Switzerland, Ireland  4% each * ** * 1.5% each: Turkey, Austria * 1% or less each: Denmark, Finland, Norway, Portugal, Greece, Iceland
Exchange Rate Affects the Directionality of North Atlantic Air Trade
North American Air Imports Have Exceeded Air Exports to Europe Since 1996 Average annual growth percentage   1983-2003 Westbound   6.1% Eastbound  5.8%
The Top Five Commodity Groupings in Each Direction Account for 36 Percent of Directional Flows Europe – North America Eastbound 1,067,000 tonnes Westbound 1,428,000 tonnes
The North American Economy Will Continue to Expand Faster than the European Economy   History Forecast Real GDP annual change, percentage
North American Air Exports to Europe Are Forecast to Grow 5.2% per Year History Forecast 2.6 % per Year Average annual growth percentage 2003 to 2023  High 6.2% Base 5.2% Low 4.2%
North American Air Imports from Europe Are Forecast to Grow 5.8% per Year History Forecast 6.4 % per Year Average annual growth percentage 2003 to 2023  High 6.9% Base 5.8% Low 4.7%
Intra-European Air Cargo Market Contracted 1.2 Percent in 2003 RTKs, billions
European Express Carriers Expand Their Market Share During Overall Market Contraction Tonnes, millions
Traditional Intra-European Express Shipment Growth Has Slowed Estimated daily express shipments, thousands 12.7% growth per year
Intra-Europe Scheduled Freight Yield Rebounded Sharply in 2002 and 2003 Annual change (percent)
Truck Flights Augment Scheduled Airline Capacity Over 3316 weekly “air-truck” frequencies connecting 328 city pairs were offered in the intra-European market as of May 2003
Intra-European Air Cargo Traffic Will Average 5.3 Percent Growth Per Year RTKs, billions History Forecast High Base Low Average annual growth percentage 2003 - 2023 High   6.5% Base   5.3% Low   4.2% 4.2% growth per year
Europe is the Middle East’s Primary Air Trade Partner Estimate for 2003 1.77 million tonnes
Middle East Air Trade with Europe Has Grown 2.7% per Year Since 1993 Average annual growth percentage 1993  -  2003 Eastbound   1.5% Westbound   4.7%
Middle East Air Trade with North America Has Averaged 6.1% Growth per Year Since 1993 Average annual growth percentage  1993-2003 Middle East Imports  4.1 % Middle East Exports  9.4 %
The Four Leading Economies of the Middle East Account for 70 % of the Regional GDP * Countries representing 2% each include Jordan, Qatar, and Other   $589 billion, 1996 U.S. dollars
The Middle East Economy is Poised to Expand 3.5% per Year Through 2023 History Forecast 3.0 % per Year 3.5 % per Year GDP, U.S. dollars in billions
Eastbound Europe-to-Middle East Air Trade Will Average 4.9% Growth per Year Through 2023 History Forecast 1.5 % per Year Average annual growth percentage 2003 to 2023  High 6.0% Base 4.9% Low 3.8% Tonnes, thousands
Westbound Middle East-to-Europe Air Trade Will Average 4.4% Growth per Year Through 2023 History Forecast 4.7 % per Year Average annual growth percentage 2003 to 2023  High 5.6% Base 4.4% Low 3.3% Tonnes, thousands
Europe is Africa’s Primary Air Trade Partner Estimate for 2003 1,101,000  tonnes
African Air Trade with Europe Has Grown 4.0 % per Year Since 1993 Average annual growth percentage 1993-2003 Exports  5.7% Imports  2.2% Tonnes, thousands
African Air Trade with North America Has Averaged 8% Growth per Year Since 1993 Average annual growth percentage 1993-2003 Exports  13.0 % Imports 5.2 % Tonnes, thousands
75% of Africa's Regional GDP is Controlled by Ten Nations $682 billion (1996 U.S. Dollars) * * Countries representing 2% each include Cameroon, Cote D’Ivoire, Kenya, Reunion, and Sudan)
The African Economy is Expected to Expand Nearly 4.0% per Year Through 2023 History Forecast 3.2 % per Year 3.9 % per Year GDP, U.S. dollars in billions
Southbound Europe-to-Africa Air Trade Will Average 5.1% Growth per Year Through 2023 History Forecast 2.2 % per Year Average annual growth percentage 2003 to 2023  High 5.9% Base 5.1% Low 4.3% Tonnes, thousands
Northbound Africa-to-Europe Air Trade Will Average 5.3% Growth per Year Through 2023 History Forecast 5.7 % per Year Average annual growth percentage 2003 to 2023  High 6.6% Base 5.3% Low 3.9% Tonnes, thousands
U.S.–Asia Air Trade Grew 17.6% From January Through June 2004 Compared to January Through June 2003 Monthly change in air cargo tonnage year over year, percent
Trans-Pacific Air Freight Markets Grew Slightly in 2003 Growth, percentage
Japan and China Account for Over 50% of the Transpacific Air Cargo Market
North America – Asia Air Trade Remains Imbalanced Airborne trade, tonnes, millions Average annual  growth percentage 1981 - 2003  Eastbound 8.8% Westbound 9.0%
Transpacific Trade Flow Directionality  Is Affected by Exchange Rate Exchange rate index (1991 = 1) Eastbound share of total tonnes, %
Consumer Goods Dominate Transpacific Eastbound Flow; Packages and Manufacturing Requirements Dominate Transpacific Westbound Flows 1,621,000 tonnes 1,054,000 tonnes
Asia-to-North America Traffic  Will Grow 7.2 Percent per Year Airborne trade, tonnes, millions History Forecast Average annual growth percentage 2003 to 2023  High   7.4% Base   7.2% Low   6.8% 7.7% growth per year High Base Low
North America-to-Asia Traffic  Will Grow  7.3 Percent per Year Airborne trade, tonnes, millions History Forecast 5.1% growth per year Average annual growth percentage 2003 to 2023  High  9.0% Base   7.3% Low   5.6% High Base Low
Europe - Asia Air Cargo Traffic Has Grown Nearly 10% per Year Since 1983 9.8 % average annual growth Tonnes, millions
European Air Imports from Asia Have Driven Overall Market Growth Since 1996 Average annual growth percentage 1993 to 2003 Eastbound  5.1% Westbound  11.7% Tonnes, millions
Asia-Europe Eastbound Flows are More Diverse Than Westbound Flows Eastbound 1,157,000 tonnes Westbound 1,718,000 tonnes
Long-Term Asian Economic Growth Will Continue to Outpace that of Europe   History Forecast Real GDP annual change, percentage
A Surge in Japanese Investment in Europe Has Bolstered Overall Regional Traffic Japanese Investment Inflows, US dollars in billions
Eastbound Europe-to-Asia Air Trade Will Average 6.8% Growth per Year Through 2023 History Forecast 5.1 % per Year Average annual growth percentage 2003 to 2023  High 7.7% Base 6.8% Low 5.6% Tonnes, millions High Base Low
Westbound Asia-to-Europe Air Trade Will Average 6.7% Per Year Through 2023 History Forecast 11.7 % per Year Average annual growth percentage 2003 to 2023  High 8.4% Base 6.7% Low 5.0% Tonnes, millions High Base Low
Intra-Asian Air Cargo Growth Is Resilient 11.0% Average Annual Growth Tonnes, millions
The Top 10 Country Pairs Constitutes  One-Half of the Intra-Asia Market Top country pairs for intraregional air cargo traffic
China Will Bolster Overall Asian Economic Growth History Forecast Real GDP Annual Change, Percentage
Asian Economic Power Distribution Is Shifting 2003 2023 *Thailand, Hong Kong, Macau, Singapore, Malaysia, Philippines, and New Zealand Share of regional GDP
Worldwide Foreign Direct Investment In Asia Fell U.S. dollars in billions
Intra-Asia Air Cargo Market Will  Grow at 8.5% Over the Next 20 Years History Forecast Average annual growth percentage 2003 to 2023 High 10.0% Base  8.5% Low  6.9% Tonnes, millions
Europe is Southwest Asia's Primary Air Trade Partner Estimate for 2003 1.34 million tonnes
Southwest Asian Air Trade with Europe Has Grown 6.9 Percent per Year Since 1993 Average annual growth percentage 1993-2003 Westbound    6.7% Eastbound    7.5% Tonnes, thousands
Growth in Southwest Asian Air Trade with North America Has Averaged 6.2 Percent per Year Average annual growth percentage 1993-2003 Imports  11.5% Exports  5.2% Tonnes, thousands
India and Pakistan Account for 90% of the Region's Economic Activity $712 billion (1996 U.S. Dollars)
Southwest Asia's Economy Will Grow Nearly 5% per Year Through 2023 History Forecast GDP, U.S. dollars in trillions 4.9% growth per year 5.7% growth per year
Worldwide Foreign Direct Investment in Southwest Asia Has Rebounded Investment inflows, US dollars in billions
Eastbound Europe-to-Southwest Asia Air Trade Will Average 6.8 Percent Growth per Year Through 2023 History Forecast Average annual growth percentage 2003 to 2023 High 7.6% Base 6.8% Low 5.9% Tonnes, thousands 7.5% growth per year
Westbound Southwest Asia-to-Europe Air Trade Will Average 6.1 Percent Growth per Year Through 2023 History Forecast Average annual growth percentage 2003 to 2023 High 7.8% Base 6.1% Low 4.5% 6.7% growth per year Tonnes, thousands
International Traffic Volume on CIS-based Carriers is More Than Double Domestic Traffic RTKs, billions Domestic International
Russian Carriers Lead Air Cargo Traffic in the Region Tonnes, thousands
Europe and Asia Predominated International Traffic for Russian-Domiciled Carriers in Year 2003 Russian carrier traffic includes transit, charter, and foreign military support 341,000 tonnes
Russia, Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan and the Ukraine Lead Overall CIS Air Trade with Europe 138,000 tonnes * 2% or less: Moldova, Belarus, Armenia, Georgia, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan
CIS Air Imports from Europe Will Triple Over the Next 20 Years Average annual growth percentage   2003 - 2023 High   6.7 % Base   5.9 % Low   5.1 % Tonnes, thousands History Forecast High Base Low 4.4 % growth per year
CIS Air Exports to Europe Will Expand Quickly From A Small Base Tonnes, thousands History Forecast High Base Low Average annual growth percentage  2003 - 2023 High  11.4 % Base  7.9 % Low  4.4 % 15.3% growth per year
Domestic China Air Cargo Traffic Totals More Than 1.6 Million Tonnes Annually  Tonnes of freight and mail, millions
Domestic China Air Cargo Traffic Has  Grown 21.3% per year Since 1991 RTKs, billions
These top ten city pairs accounted for approximately  552 thousand tonnes, or 34% of domestic air cargo traffic in 2003 Current China Domestic Air Cargo Traffic is Concentrated on Coastal and Southern Trade Lanes  Top city pairs for domestic air cargo traffic
History Forecast China’s GDP is Expected to Triple GDP, U.S. dollars in billions 8.7% growth per year 5.8% growth per year
Domestic China Air Cargo is Forecasted to  Grow 10.6% per Year for the Next Two Decades Tonnes, millions History Forecast Average annual growth percentage 2003 - 2023 High  11.6% Base  10.6% Low  9.5% 19.5% growth per year High Base Low
Widebody Freighters Dominate the Future Fleet 2023 3,456  freighters 40% 31% 29% 2003 1,766  freighters 24% 56% 20% Standard-body (<50 tons) Medium widebody (40-65 tons) Large (>65 tons)
Freighter Fleet Is Grouped Into Size Categories BAe-146 707-320C DC-9* DC-8* 737* 757-200 727* MD-80/-90 A320* Standard-body (less than 50 tonnes) Medium widebody (40 to 65 tonnes) Large (more than 65 tonnes) DC-10-30/40 MD-11 747* 777* A340* A380* 767* A300* A310* A330* L-1011 DC-10-10 * Represents a series
Freighter Fleet Forecast Methodology World Air Cargo Forecast Projected traffic Current Market Outlook Passenger/combi airplane forecast Freighter airplane requirement Minus Equals Total cargo   Demand Lower-hold lift     Supply Needed freighter lift   Supply – =
Widebody Freighters Represent Over 90% of Future Fleet Capacity 2023 478 billion ATKs 18% 8% 74% 2003 168 billion ATKs 13% 14% 73% Standard-body (<50 tons) Medium widebody (40-65 tons) Large (>65 tons)
Freighter Conversions Comprise 75% of Fleet Additions Freighter aircraft, units Fleet  additions, 2,950 units Current/retained fleet Conversion market New freighters
Future Freighter Delivery Source Depends on Size Category 1,184 converted 436 new 492 converted 550 converted 236 new 52 new Large 928 total Medium Widebody 786 Total Standard-body 1,236 total Total 2,950 Units (2,226 Converted, 724 New) Standard-body (<50 tons) Medium widebody (40-65 tons) Large (>65 tons)
North America Will Account for More Than Half of 2004-2023 Freighter Deliveries * Includes Southwest Asia

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Boeing World Air Cargo Presentation

  • 1. Boeing World Air Cargo Forecast 2004 / 2005 SLIDES Questions? Please contact Tom Crabtree at +1 206 766 2576 Boeing Commercial Airplanes September 2004
  • 2. Major Air Cargo Markets Rebounded Strongly During the First Half of 2004 Monthly percentage of change over prior year
  • 3.
  • 4. Yield Trends Reflect Both Productivity Gains and Industry Competition Yield Index (1985 = 1) Passenger Yield 1985-2003: -1.7% 1993-2003: -2.4% Freight Yield 1985-2003: -2.4% 1993-2003: -0.5%
  • 5. Over 8% of World Air Cargo Traffic Moved by ACMI Providers RTKs, billions 17.9% average annual growth
  • 6. International Express Traffic Growth Has Slowed RTKs, billions
  • 7. World Air Cargo Traffic Will Triple Over the Next 20 Years History Forecast Average annual growth percentage 2003 to 2023 High 7.4% Base 6.2% Low 5.0% 6.1% growth per year RTKs, billions
  • 8. Widebody Freighters Dominate the Future Fleet 2023 3,456 freighters 40% 31% 29% 2003 1,766 freighters 24% 56% 20% Standard-body (<50 tons) Medium widebody (40-65 tons) Large (>65 tons)
  • 9. World Economic Growth, GDP Annual Change, Percentage
  • 10. World Air Freight, RTKs Annual Change, Percentage
  • 11. World Air Freight Yield Annual change, percentage
  • 12. 2003 Domicile Market Share 156.5 billion RTKs
  • 13. World Scheduled Air Freight RTKs, billions
  • 14. World Charter Air Freight RTKs, billions
  • 15. Demand “Pulls” Air Cargo Traffic U Importer Economic Activity Products Air/sea/land costs Exchange rates Relative prices ( ( ( ( Exporter ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( (
  • 16. Forces and Constraints for Air Cargo Growth Trade quotas and restrictions Currency revaluation's Air and surface labor stoppages Renegotiated bilaterals Industry relocation Directional Imbalances Surface competition Airport curfews New commodities Widebody freighters, combis, and lower decks Airline market research Airline market and shipper education Shipper utilization Proliferation of points served &quot;Just in time&quot;&quot; concepts Express market Deregulation Oil price and availability National development programs New trade relationships Export promotion World and regional GDP growth
  • 17. Air Cargo Growth is Influenced by GDP Growth RTKs annual growth, percentage GDP annual growth, percentage
  • 19. World GDP Growth Growth, annual percentage change for 2003 through 2023
  • 20. World Air Freight Will Grow 6.3% Per Year Through 2023 History Forecast Average annual growth percentage 2003 to 2023 High 7.5% Base 6.3% Low 5.1% 6.2% growth per year RTKs, billions
  • 21. World Airmail Will Grow 2.9% Per Year Through 2023 History Forecast Average annual growth percentage 2003 to 2023 High 3.3% Base 2.9% Low 2.4% 2.6% growth per year RTKs, billions
  • 22. World Air Cargo (Freight and Mail) Will Grow 6.2% Per Year Through 2023 History Forecast Average annual growth percentage 2003 to 2023 High 7.4% Base 6.2% Low 5.0% 6.1% growth per year RTKs, billions
  • 23. Share of World Market By Carrier Domicile U.S. 29.8% Non-U.S. 70.2% U.S. 23.4% Non-U.S. 76.6%
  • 24. Domicile Share of International/Domestic Traffic International Domestic Non-U.S. 65.5% U.S. 16.4% Non U.S. 4.7% U.S. 13.4% International Domestic Non-U.S. 69.2% U.S. 14.5% U.S. 8.9% Non U.S. 7.4%
  • 25. Asia Cargo Markets Will Continue to Lead the Industry … Growth, percentage World Average, 6.2%
  • 26. … and Increase Their Share of World Cargo Share of world total market, RTKs percentage Europe-Asia North America-Europe Europe-Middle East Europe-Southwest Asia North America-Latin America Intra-Europe
  • 27. Express Service Dominates the US Air Cargo Market RTKs, billions
  • 28. Canada’s GDP Growth Is a Strong Indicator of Domestic Air Cargo Growth Growth, percentage *2003 cargo growth estimate
  • 29. Northbound Trans-Border Tonnage Continues to Exceed Southbound Tonnage Tonnes, thousands
  • 30. Airlines Supplement Available Cargo Capacity With Truck Flights
  • 31. Trucking Has Grown Steadily, While Air Cargo Traffic Growth Has Slowed Sources: IATA and American Trucking Associations U.S. domestic trucking traffic , million (tonnes) U.S. domestic air cargo traffic, million (tonnes) *Figures include for-hire and private carriage
  • 32. A Long-Term Perspective Reveals a Return to Accustomed GDP Growth Rates 1996 U.S. Dollars
  • 33. Transborder Air Cargo Traffic Between U.S. and Canada is Projected to Grow 6.8% Percent Growth Over the Next 20 Years RTKs, billions 6.5% growth per year History Forecast Average annual growth percentage 2003 to 2023 High 8.5% Base 6.8% Low 5.1%
  • 34. U.S. Domestic Market Will Maintain Steady Growth of 4.0% Over the Forecast Period RTKs, billions 2.7% growth per year Forecast History Average annual growth percentage 2003 to 2023 High 5.1% Base 4.0% Low 2.8%
  • 35. Domestic Canada Air Cargo Market Will Grow 2.6% for the Forecast Period RTKs, billions 2.8% growth per year Forecast History Average annual growth percentage 2003 to 2023 High 3.2% Base 2.6% Low 2.0%
  • 36. Trade With North America Is Distributed Unevenly Among Latin American Regions Tonnes, thousands
  • 37. US – Latin America Air Trade Grew 36.9% In January Through June 2004 Compared With January Through June 2003 Monthly change in air cargo tonnage, year over year, percent
  • 38. North America Trade With Latin America Can Be Classified Into Three Subregions 731,000 tonnes *Less than 1% each: Bolivia, Fr. Guiana, Guyana, Suriname 296,000 tonnes *Less than 1% each: Belize 92,000 tonnes *Less than 1% each: Anguilla, Antigua & Barbuda, British V.I., Cayman Islands, Dominica, Guadeloupe, Martinique, Montserrat, St. Lucia, St. Vincent & the Grenadines, Turks & Caicos Islands **Between 1 – 2% each: Aruba, Cuba, Grenada ***Between 2 – 3% each: Bahamas, Bermuda, Neth. Antilles, St. Kitts & Nevis Mexico 55% Nicaragua 4% Panama 6% * Costa Rica 16% El Salvador 5% Honduras 5% Guatemala 9% Dominican Republic 45% Haiti 7% Jamaica 12% Trinidad and Tobago 13% * Barbados 3% ** *** Brazil 22% Chile 22% Columbia 25% Ecuador 9% Peru 12% Uruguay 1% Venezuela 4% * Argentina 5%
  • 39. Consumer Goods Dominate North America-Latin America Northbound Flows; Packages and Manufacturing Requirements Dominate Southbound 721,000 tonnes 399,000 tonnes
  • 40. Trade Between Central America and North America Will Grow 6.3% per Year Tonnes, thousands 4.8% growth per year Forecast History 1.9% growth per year Average annual growth percentage 2003 to 2023 Northbound 6.5% Southbound 6.1%
  • 41. Trade Between South America and North America Will Grow 6.0% per Year Tonnes, thousands 5.3% growth per year Forecast History -0.5% growth per year Average annual growth percentage 2003 to 2023 Northbound 6.2% Southbound 5.6%
  • 42. Trade Between the Caribbean and North America Will Grow 2.1% per Year Tonnes, thousands -2.0% growth per year Forecast History Average annual growth percentage 2003 to 2023 Northbound 2.1% Southbound 2.1% 1.4% growth per year
  • 43. Europe-USA Air Cargo Ended 2.5% on the Up Side After 2 Years of Decline Monthly change in air cargo tonnage year over year, percentage
  • 44. Five Countries Account for 71% of Europe - North America Air Trade 2.5 million tonnes Switzerland, Ireland 4% each * ** * 1.5% each: Turkey, Austria * 1% or less each: Denmark, Finland, Norway, Portugal, Greece, Iceland
  • 45. Exchange Rate Affects the Directionality of North Atlantic Air Trade
  • 46. North American Air Imports Have Exceeded Air Exports to Europe Since 1996 Average annual growth percentage 1983-2003 Westbound 6.1% Eastbound 5.8%
  • 47. The Top Five Commodity Groupings in Each Direction Account for 36 Percent of Directional Flows Europe – North America Eastbound 1,067,000 tonnes Westbound 1,428,000 tonnes
  • 48. The North American Economy Will Continue to Expand Faster than the European Economy History Forecast Real GDP annual change, percentage
  • 49. North American Air Exports to Europe Are Forecast to Grow 5.2% per Year History Forecast 2.6 % per Year Average annual growth percentage 2003 to 2023 High 6.2% Base 5.2% Low 4.2%
  • 50. North American Air Imports from Europe Are Forecast to Grow 5.8% per Year History Forecast 6.4 % per Year Average annual growth percentage 2003 to 2023 High 6.9% Base 5.8% Low 4.7%
  • 51. Intra-European Air Cargo Market Contracted 1.2 Percent in 2003 RTKs, billions
  • 52. European Express Carriers Expand Their Market Share During Overall Market Contraction Tonnes, millions
  • 53. Traditional Intra-European Express Shipment Growth Has Slowed Estimated daily express shipments, thousands 12.7% growth per year
  • 54. Intra-Europe Scheduled Freight Yield Rebounded Sharply in 2002 and 2003 Annual change (percent)
  • 55. Truck Flights Augment Scheduled Airline Capacity Over 3316 weekly “air-truck” frequencies connecting 328 city pairs were offered in the intra-European market as of May 2003
  • 56. Intra-European Air Cargo Traffic Will Average 5.3 Percent Growth Per Year RTKs, billions History Forecast High Base Low Average annual growth percentage 2003 - 2023 High 6.5% Base 5.3% Low 4.2% 4.2% growth per year
  • 57. Europe is the Middle East’s Primary Air Trade Partner Estimate for 2003 1.77 million tonnes
  • 58. Middle East Air Trade with Europe Has Grown 2.7% per Year Since 1993 Average annual growth percentage 1993 - 2003 Eastbound 1.5% Westbound 4.7%
  • 59. Middle East Air Trade with North America Has Averaged 6.1% Growth per Year Since 1993 Average annual growth percentage 1993-2003 Middle East Imports 4.1 % Middle East Exports 9.4 %
  • 60. The Four Leading Economies of the Middle East Account for 70 % of the Regional GDP * Countries representing 2% each include Jordan, Qatar, and Other $589 billion, 1996 U.S. dollars
  • 61. The Middle East Economy is Poised to Expand 3.5% per Year Through 2023 History Forecast 3.0 % per Year 3.5 % per Year GDP, U.S. dollars in billions
  • 62. Eastbound Europe-to-Middle East Air Trade Will Average 4.9% Growth per Year Through 2023 History Forecast 1.5 % per Year Average annual growth percentage 2003 to 2023 High 6.0% Base 4.9% Low 3.8% Tonnes, thousands
  • 63. Westbound Middle East-to-Europe Air Trade Will Average 4.4% Growth per Year Through 2023 History Forecast 4.7 % per Year Average annual growth percentage 2003 to 2023 High 5.6% Base 4.4% Low 3.3% Tonnes, thousands
  • 64. Europe is Africa’s Primary Air Trade Partner Estimate for 2003 1,101,000 tonnes
  • 65. African Air Trade with Europe Has Grown 4.0 % per Year Since 1993 Average annual growth percentage 1993-2003 Exports 5.7% Imports 2.2% Tonnes, thousands
  • 66. African Air Trade with North America Has Averaged 8% Growth per Year Since 1993 Average annual growth percentage 1993-2003 Exports 13.0 % Imports 5.2 % Tonnes, thousands
  • 67. 75% of Africa's Regional GDP is Controlled by Ten Nations $682 billion (1996 U.S. Dollars) * * Countries representing 2% each include Cameroon, Cote D’Ivoire, Kenya, Reunion, and Sudan)
  • 68. The African Economy is Expected to Expand Nearly 4.0% per Year Through 2023 History Forecast 3.2 % per Year 3.9 % per Year GDP, U.S. dollars in billions
  • 69. Southbound Europe-to-Africa Air Trade Will Average 5.1% Growth per Year Through 2023 History Forecast 2.2 % per Year Average annual growth percentage 2003 to 2023 High 5.9% Base 5.1% Low 4.3% Tonnes, thousands
  • 70. Northbound Africa-to-Europe Air Trade Will Average 5.3% Growth per Year Through 2023 History Forecast 5.7 % per Year Average annual growth percentage 2003 to 2023 High 6.6% Base 5.3% Low 3.9% Tonnes, thousands
  • 71. U.S.–Asia Air Trade Grew 17.6% From January Through June 2004 Compared to January Through June 2003 Monthly change in air cargo tonnage year over year, percent
  • 72. Trans-Pacific Air Freight Markets Grew Slightly in 2003 Growth, percentage
  • 73. Japan and China Account for Over 50% of the Transpacific Air Cargo Market
  • 74. North America – Asia Air Trade Remains Imbalanced Airborne trade, tonnes, millions Average annual growth percentage 1981 - 2003 Eastbound 8.8% Westbound 9.0%
  • 75. Transpacific Trade Flow Directionality Is Affected by Exchange Rate Exchange rate index (1991 = 1) Eastbound share of total tonnes, %
  • 76. Consumer Goods Dominate Transpacific Eastbound Flow; Packages and Manufacturing Requirements Dominate Transpacific Westbound Flows 1,621,000 tonnes 1,054,000 tonnes
  • 77. Asia-to-North America Traffic Will Grow 7.2 Percent per Year Airborne trade, tonnes, millions History Forecast Average annual growth percentage 2003 to 2023 High 7.4% Base 7.2% Low 6.8% 7.7% growth per year High Base Low
  • 78. North America-to-Asia Traffic Will Grow 7.3 Percent per Year Airborne trade, tonnes, millions History Forecast 5.1% growth per year Average annual growth percentage 2003 to 2023 High 9.0% Base 7.3% Low 5.6% High Base Low
  • 79. Europe - Asia Air Cargo Traffic Has Grown Nearly 10% per Year Since 1983 9.8 % average annual growth Tonnes, millions
  • 80. European Air Imports from Asia Have Driven Overall Market Growth Since 1996 Average annual growth percentage 1993 to 2003 Eastbound 5.1% Westbound 11.7% Tonnes, millions
  • 81. Asia-Europe Eastbound Flows are More Diverse Than Westbound Flows Eastbound 1,157,000 tonnes Westbound 1,718,000 tonnes
  • 82. Long-Term Asian Economic Growth Will Continue to Outpace that of Europe History Forecast Real GDP annual change, percentage
  • 83. A Surge in Japanese Investment in Europe Has Bolstered Overall Regional Traffic Japanese Investment Inflows, US dollars in billions
  • 84. Eastbound Europe-to-Asia Air Trade Will Average 6.8% Growth per Year Through 2023 History Forecast 5.1 % per Year Average annual growth percentage 2003 to 2023 High 7.7% Base 6.8% Low 5.6% Tonnes, millions High Base Low
  • 85. Westbound Asia-to-Europe Air Trade Will Average 6.7% Per Year Through 2023 History Forecast 11.7 % per Year Average annual growth percentage 2003 to 2023 High 8.4% Base 6.7% Low 5.0% Tonnes, millions High Base Low
  • 86. Intra-Asian Air Cargo Growth Is Resilient 11.0% Average Annual Growth Tonnes, millions
  • 87. The Top 10 Country Pairs Constitutes One-Half of the Intra-Asia Market Top country pairs for intraregional air cargo traffic
  • 88. China Will Bolster Overall Asian Economic Growth History Forecast Real GDP Annual Change, Percentage
  • 89. Asian Economic Power Distribution Is Shifting 2003 2023 *Thailand, Hong Kong, Macau, Singapore, Malaysia, Philippines, and New Zealand Share of regional GDP
  • 90. Worldwide Foreign Direct Investment In Asia Fell U.S. dollars in billions
  • 91. Intra-Asia Air Cargo Market Will Grow at 8.5% Over the Next 20 Years History Forecast Average annual growth percentage 2003 to 2023 High 10.0% Base 8.5% Low 6.9% Tonnes, millions
  • 92. Europe is Southwest Asia's Primary Air Trade Partner Estimate for 2003 1.34 million tonnes
  • 93. Southwest Asian Air Trade with Europe Has Grown 6.9 Percent per Year Since 1993 Average annual growth percentage 1993-2003 Westbound 6.7% Eastbound 7.5% Tonnes, thousands
  • 94. Growth in Southwest Asian Air Trade with North America Has Averaged 6.2 Percent per Year Average annual growth percentage 1993-2003 Imports 11.5% Exports 5.2% Tonnes, thousands
  • 95. India and Pakistan Account for 90% of the Region's Economic Activity $712 billion (1996 U.S. Dollars)
  • 96. Southwest Asia's Economy Will Grow Nearly 5% per Year Through 2023 History Forecast GDP, U.S. dollars in trillions 4.9% growth per year 5.7% growth per year
  • 97. Worldwide Foreign Direct Investment in Southwest Asia Has Rebounded Investment inflows, US dollars in billions
  • 98. Eastbound Europe-to-Southwest Asia Air Trade Will Average 6.8 Percent Growth per Year Through 2023 History Forecast Average annual growth percentage 2003 to 2023 High 7.6% Base 6.8% Low 5.9% Tonnes, thousands 7.5% growth per year
  • 99. Westbound Southwest Asia-to-Europe Air Trade Will Average 6.1 Percent Growth per Year Through 2023 History Forecast Average annual growth percentage 2003 to 2023 High 7.8% Base 6.1% Low 4.5% 6.7% growth per year Tonnes, thousands
  • 100. International Traffic Volume on CIS-based Carriers is More Than Double Domestic Traffic RTKs, billions Domestic International
  • 101. Russian Carriers Lead Air Cargo Traffic in the Region Tonnes, thousands
  • 102. Europe and Asia Predominated International Traffic for Russian-Domiciled Carriers in Year 2003 Russian carrier traffic includes transit, charter, and foreign military support 341,000 tonnes
  • 103. Russia, Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan and the Ukraine Lead Overall CIS Air Trade with Europe 138,000 tonnes * 2% or less: Moldova, Belarus, Armenia, Georgia, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan
  • 104. CIS Air Imports from Europe Will Triple Over the Next 20 Years Average annual growth percentage 2003 - 2023 High 6.7 % Base 5.9 % Low 5.1 % Tonnes, thousands History Forecast High Base Low 4.4 % growth per year
  • 105. CIS Air Exports to Europe Will Expand Quickly From A Small Base Tonnes, thousands History Forecast High Base Low Average annual growth percentage 2003 - 2023 High 11.4 % Base 7.9 % Low 4.4 % 15.3% growth per year
  • 106. Domestic China Air Cargo Traffic Totals More Than 1.6 Million Tonnes Annually Tonnes of freight and mail, millions
  • 107. Domestic China Air Cargo Traffic Has Grown 21.3% per year Since 1991 RTKs, billions
  • 108. These top ten city pairs accounted for approximately 552 thousand tonnes, or 34% of domestic air cargo traffic in 2003 Current China Domestic Air Cargo Traffic is Concentrated on Coastal and Southern Trade Lanes Top city pairs for domestic air cargo traffic
  • 109. History Forecast China’s GDP is Expected to Triple GDP, U.S. dollars in billions 8.7% growth per year 5.8% growth per year
  • 110. Domestic China Air Cargo is Forecasted to Grow 10.6% per Year for the Next Two Decades Tonnes, millions History Forecast Average annual growth percentage 2003 - 2023 High 11.6% Base 10.6% Low 9.5% 19.5% growth per year High Base Low
  • 111. Widebody Freighters Dominate the Future Fleet 2023 3,456 freighters 40% 31% 29% 2003 1,766 freighters 24% 56% 20% Standard-body (<50 tons) Medium widebody (40-65 tons) Large (>65 tons)
  • 112. Freighter Fleet Is Grouped Into Size Categories BAe-146 707-320C DC-9* DC-8* 737* 757-200 727* MD-80/-90 A320* Standard-body (less than 50 tonnes) Medium widebody (40 to 65 tonnes) Large (more than 65 tonnes) DC-10-30/40 MD-11 747* 777* A340* A380* 767* A300* A310* A330* L-1011 DC-10-10 * Represents a series
  • 113. Freighter Fleet Forecast Methodology World Air Cargo Forecast Projected traffic Current Market Outlook Passenger/combi airplane forecast Freighter airplane requirement Minus Equals Total cargo Demand Lower-hold lift Supply Needed freighter lift Supply – =
  • 114. Widebody Freighters Represent Over 90% of Future Fleet Capacity 2023 478 billion ATKs 18% 8% 74% 2003 168 billion ATKs 13% 14% 73% Standard-body (<50 tons) Medium widebody (40-65 tons) Large (>65 tons)
  • 115. Freighter Conversions Comprise 75% of Fleet Additions Freighter aircraft, units Fleet additions, 2,950 units Current/retained fleet Conversion market New freighters
  • 116. Future Freighter Delivery Source Depends on Size Category 1,184 converted 436 new 492 converted 550 converted 236 new 52 new Large 928 total Medium Widebody 786 Total Standard-body 1,236 total Total 2,950 Units (2,226 Converted, 724 New) Standard-body (<50 tons) Medium widebody (40-65 tons) Large (>65 tons)
  • 117. North America Will Account for More Than Half of 2004-2023 Freighter Deliveries * Includes Southwest Asia

Editor's Notes

  1. Ladies and Gentlemen, good afternoon. Thank you for allowing me to brief you on the findings of our newly updated “ Boeing World Air Cargo Forecast (or WACF) !” As many of you know, we’ve been at this a long time - some 27 years. Consequently, our forecast document has become the industry standard for reliable air cargo market data and analysis. The Boeing Company issues the biennial World Air Cargo Forecast (WACF) to provide a comprehensive up-to-date overview of the air cargo industry, in terms of both air cargo traffic by major regional markets and the requirement for freighter aircraft over the next two decades. Today, I’d like to talk briefly about the tremendous growth and progress we’ve seen in the air cargo industry up till now. Then I’ll describe where we envision that industry will be 20 years from now. In short, the future is bright! A strongly resurgent world air cargo industry characterizes the market for this 2004/2005 edition of the World Air Cargo Forecast. Traffic as surged during the first half of 2004 relative to 2003, when concern over the Iraq War and the SARS crisis in Asia curbed industry growth. If the current momentum of world air cargo traffic growth is maintained through the end of 2004, it will mark the first double-digit percentage growth year for the industry since 1997.