Manhattan Fourth Quarter 2009 Real Estate Market Report Report
1. Manhattan
Market Overview
4Q 09
A Quarterly Survey of Manhattan Co-op and Condo Sales
Prepared by Miller Samuel Inc.
Appraisal and consulting services covering
the New York City metropolitan area
Number of sales above prior year as Manhattan Market Matrix Current Qtr % Chg Prior Qtr % Chg Prior Year Qtr
Average Sales Price $1,296,156 -2.1% $1,323,462 -12.7% $1,485,102
price indicators continued to slip Average Price per Square Foot $1,051 5.5% $996 -11.2% $1,183
The number of sales increased over the prior Median Sales Price $810,000 -4.7% $850,000 -10% $900,000
year quarter as inventory fell There were 2,473 New Development $1,125,000 -2.2% $1,150,000 -10.7% $1,260,000
sales in the current quarter, up 8.4% from the Re-Sale $745,000 -0.7% $750,000 1.7% $732,500
2,282 sales in the prior year quarter and up Number of Sales 2,473 10.9% 2,230 8.4% 2,282
10.9% from the prior quarter. This level of activ- Days on Market (from Last List Date) 204 22% 167 28.3% 159
ity was more than twice the 1,195 sales seen in Listing Discount (from Last List Price) 12.8% 7.6% 7.3%
the first quarter of 2009, which had been low- Listing Inventory 6,851 -18.3% 8,389 -24.6% 9,081
est level of sales in nearly 15 years. The return
QUARTERLY�AVERAGE�SALES�PRICE�/�MANHATTAN
to more normal historical levels of sales activity QUARTERLY�AVERAGE�SALES�PRICE�/�MANHATTAN
$2,000,000
was also reflected in the decline in inventory lev- $2,000,000
$1,800,000
$1,800,000
els. There were 6,851 active listings at the end $1,600,000
$1,600,000
of the quarter, a 24.6% decline from 9,081 list- $1,400,000
$1,400,000
ings in the same period a year ago, but down $1,200,000
$1,200,000
18.3% from 8,389 listings in the prior quarter. $1,000,000
$1,000,000
The seasonal average decline in the number of $800,000
$800,000
listings from the third quarter to fourth quarter $600,000
$600,000
$400,000
over the last decade with the exception of 2008 $400,000 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09
99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09
was -3.4%. Therefore the 18.3% decline in list- NEW�DEVELOPMENT�MARKET�SHARE��MEDIAN�SALES�PRICE New Developement Re-sale
NEW�DEVELOPMENT�MARKET�SHARE��MEDIAN�SALES�PRICE New Developement Re-sale
ings was considered atypical. Excess inventory $2,000,000 50%
$2,000,000 50%
was worked off by the surge in summer and fall
$1,600,000 Median Sales Price 40%
sales activity, ordinarily seen during the spring $1,600,000 Median Sales Price 40%
market. This drop in the number of listings was $1,200,000 30%
$1,200,000 30%
also compounded by the seasonal trend of sell-
$800,000 20%
ers withdrawing listings over the end of year holi- $800,000 20%
day season and re-listing in the new year. This $400,000
Market Share New Development (Units)
10%
$400,000 10%
decline in listing inventory does not include the Market Share New Development (Units)
$0 0%
“shadow inventory” of stalled new development $0 4Q 08
4Q 08
1Q 09
1Q 09
2Q 09
2Q 09
3Q 09
3Q 09
4Q 09
4Q 09 0%
projects, which is estimated to be in excess of
AVERAGE�PRICE�PER�SQ�FT�/�CO�OP Downtown East Side West Side Uptown
6,000 units. AVERAGE�PRICE�PER�SQ�FT�/�CO�OP
The median sales price of a Manhattan apart-
Downtown East Side West Side
Average sales price followed a similar pattern,
Uptown
$1,400
$1,400
Pace of decline in price indicators continued to ment was $810,000 in the fourth quarter, 10%
$1,200
falling 12.7% to $1,296,156 in the prior year quarter
ease Despite the sharp decline in listing invento- $1,200
below $900,000 in the prior year quarter and and down 2.1% from $1,323,462 in the prior quar-
$1,000
ry, price indicators continue to show weakness. 4.7% below the $850,000 in the prior quarter.
$1,000 ter. Price per square foot was $1,051 in the fourth
$800
$800
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$600
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$600 to browse listings and learn more about market trends prudentialelliman.com
$400
$400
2. 4Q 09 MANhAttAN MArket overvIew Prudential douglas elliMan real estate
Co-oP market
quarter, down 11.2% from the prior year quarter and 8.4% declines in the studio and 1-bedroom
result of $1,183 but up 5.5% from the prior quar- markets respectively and double digit declines
ter result of $996. Entry-level apartments, name- in the 2, 3 and 4-bedroom markets.
ly studio and 1-bedroom units, garnered a 58% Price indicators mixed as number Number of sales jumped as inventory declined
market share in the fourth quarter compared of sales jumped There were 1,264 co-op sales in the fourth
53% in the prior year quarter. This market seg- Price indicators fell from prior year quarter, quarter, surging 28.3% from 985 sales in the
QUARTERLY�AVERAGE�SALES�PRICE�/�MANHATTAN
ment also saw the lowest year over year decline but “sideways” from prior quarter The median prior year quarter and 27% above 995 sales in
$2,000,000
in quarterly median sales prices as compared to QUARTERLY�AVERAGE�SALES�PRICE�/�MANHATTAN
sales price of a Manhattan co-op was $630,000, the prior quarter. This level of sales is more than
$1,800,000
the remainder of the market. $2,000,000
down 6.7% from the prior year quarter result of three times the 414 sales of the first quarter of
$1,600,000
$1,800,000
Despite increase in activity, properties took $675,000 and unchanged from the prior quarter. 2009, considered the low point in activity after
$1,400,000
$1,600,000
longer to sell The average days on market was The pace of decline in the year over year change the market tipping point in the fall of 2008.
$1,200,000
$1,400,000
204 days in the fourth quarter, up 28.3% from in$1,000,000 sales price has eased for the third The number of sales is now consistent with the
median
$1,200,000
the prior year quarter average of 159 days and $800,000
consecutive quarter from the first quarter peak 10-year quarterly average of 1,270 sales. The
$1,000,000
jumped 22% from 167 days in the prior quarter. $600,000
of -21.9%. The average sales price was $975,049 robust level of sales in the fourth quarter relative
$800,000
$400,000
Since this metric is based on closed sales, it in- in the first quarter, down 19.6% from 02 prior to the first05 of 06
$600,000 99 00 01 the 03 04 half 2009 served to diminish the
07 08 09
cludes properties that entered the market in the $400,000
year quarter average sales price of $1,213,382 and level of inventoryNew Developement 08There 09
NEW�DEVELOPMENT�MARKET�SHARE��MEDIAN�SALES�PRICE
99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06on the 07 market. Re-sale were
first half of 2009 that languished until the num- down 3.1% from $1,005,744 in the prior quarter. 3,069 co-op apartments on the market at50%
$2,000,000
NEW�DEVELOPMENT�MARKET�SHARE��MEDIAN�SALES�PRICE New Developement Re-sale
the
ber of sales surged in the third quarter. The jump This is the first time this price indicator has fallen end of the fourth quarter, 19.4% below the 3,808
$2,000,000 50%
$1,600,000 Median Sales Price 40%
in marketing time from the third quarter was con- below $1,000,000 since the third quarter of listings in the same period a year ago and down
Median Sales Price
sistent with the sharp decline in listings over the $1,600,000
2005. Price per square foot was $921, down 13% 20.1% from the prior quarter total of 3,840
$1,200,000
40%
30%
same period and increased sales activity causing from $1,059 in the prior year quarter, but up 6.4% listings. The combination of lower inventory30%
$1,200,000 and
$800,000 20%
older inventory to be absorbed. Listing discount from $866 in the prior quarter. A decline in year the higher number of sales caused the monthly
$800,000 20%
increased to 12.8% in the fourth quarter from over year quarterly median sales price occurred absorption rateSharefall to 7.3 months, the lowest
$400,000
Market to New Development (Units)
10%
7.3% in the prior year quarter and from 7.6% in in all apartment size categories. There were 8.5% level in two years. Co-op sales represented 51.1%
$400,000 10%
$0 Market Share New Development (Units) 0%
the prior quarter. 4Q 08 1Q 09 2Q 09 3Q 09 4Q 09
$0 4Q 08 1Q 09 2Q 09 3Q 09 4Q 09 0%
The end of a decade. The beginning of a new AVERAGE�PRICE�PER�SQ�FT�/�CO�OP Downtown East Side West Side Uptown
market. The second half of the 2009 Manhattan $1,400
AVERAGE�PRICE�PER�SQ�FT�/�CO�OP Downtown East Side West Side Uptown
housing market reflected a new era, marked $1,400
$1,200
by the milestone Lehman Brothers Bankruptcy
$1,200
$1,000
tipping point of September 15, 2008. Buyers,
sellers and real estate professionals have slowly $1,000
$800
adopted to changes including stringent, if not $800
$600
irrational mortgage underwriting, elevated un- $600
$400
employment and layoffs, lower compensation, a
$400
$200 4Q 08 1Q 09 2Q 09 3Q 09 4Q 09
sharp price correction, shadow inventory, first-
time home buyers’ tax credit, rising foreclosures, $200 4Q 08 1Q 09 2Q 09 3Q 09 4Q 09
LISTING�DISCOUNT�VS��DAYS�ON�MARKET�/�CO�OP
declining appraisal quality, expanding marketing 20%
LISTING�DISCOUNT�VS��DAYS�ON�MARKET�/�CO�OP 200
times and a host of other challenges. While the 20% 200
16% 175
increased level of sales in the second half of Days On Market
2009 was encouraging, a true housing recovery 16%
12% Days On Market 175
150
will be marked by a meaningful decline in 12% 150
8% 125
unemployment and greater consumer access to
credit. 8% 125
100
4% Listing Discount
4% Listing Discount 100
0% 4Q 08 1Q 09 2Q 09 3Q 09 4Q 09 75
0% 4Q 08 1Q 09 2Q 09 3Q 09 4Q 09 75
AVERAGE�PRICE�PER�SQ�FT�/�CONDO Downtown East Side West Side Uptown
$2,500
AVERAGE�PRICE�PER�SQ�FT�/�CONDO Downtown East Side West Side Uptown
$2,500
$2,000
CO-Op Market Matrix Current Qtr % Chg Prior Qtr % Chg Prior Year Qtr CO-Op apartMent Mix % of Total Median Price
Average Sales Price $975,049 $2,000
-3.1% $1,005,744 -19.6% $1,213,382
$1,500 Studio 23% $350,000
Average Price per Square Foot $921 6.4% $866 -13% $1,059
$1,500 1 bedroom 42% $591,000
Median Sales Price $630,000 $1,000
0% $630,000 -6.7% $675,000
Number of Sales 1,264 27%
$1,000
$500
995 28.3% 985 2 bedroom 22% $1,130,000
Days on Market (from Last List Date) 151 12.7% 134 -0.7% 152
$500 3 bedroom 11% $1,950,000
Listing Discount (from Last List Price) 18.3% $0 12.5%
4Q 08 1Q 09 4.5% 2Q 09 3Q 09 4Q 09
Listing Inventory 3,069 -20.1%$0 3,840
4Q 08 -19.4% 1Q 09 3,808 2Q 09
4+ bedroom 3Q 09
2% $4,425,000
4Q 09
LISTING�DISCOUNT�VS��DAYS�ON�MARKET�/�CONDO
20%
LISTING�DISCOUNT�VS��DAYS�ON�MARKET�/�CONDO 275
20% 275
prudentialelliman.com 16%
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Days On Market 250
16% Days On Market 250
12% 225
3. 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09
$400,000
NEW�DEVELOPMENT�MARKET�SHARE��MEDIAN�SALES�PRICE
99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07
New Developement 08 09
Re-sale
$2,000,000 Re-sale 50%
Prudential douglas elliMan real estate MANhAttAN MArket overvIew
NEW�DEVELOPMENT�MARKET�SHARE��MEDIAN�SALES�PRICE New Developement 4Q 09
$2,000,000 Median Sales Price
50%
$1,600,000 40%
$1,600,000 Median Sales Price 40%
CoNDo market
$1,200,000 30%
of all apartment sales in the fourth quarter, up sales, re-sale unit sales increased 53.6% over
$1,200,000 30%
from 43.2% in the same period last year. This
$800,000 20% the same period last year and new-development
is a significant change from the same period a
$800,000 20% unit sales fell 44.4% over the same period. The
decade ago when the market share of co-op Price indicators mixed and listing
$400,000 10%
Market Share New Development (Units)
declining trend in new development closings
$400,000
$0 4Q 08 inventory dropped
sales was 68.5%. Co-op inventory 1Q 09 44.8% of 2Q 09
was Market Share New Development (Units)
3Q 09 4Q 09
10%
0% reflect the constraints applied by lenders for
all apartment listings 08
$0 4Q excluding shadow inventory.
1Q 09 Listing inventory09
2Q 09 3Q fell sharply 4Q 09 number of
as 0% consumer mortgages in new projects.
AVERAGE�PRICE�PER�SQ�FT�/�CO�OP
Of total co-op inventory, 97.3% were considered Downtown slipped Side
East West Side Uptown
sales Condos represented 55.2% of Price indicators from prior year quarter
re-sale listings and 2.7% were comprised of new Downtown
$1,400
AVERAGE�PRICE�PER�SQ�FT�/�CO�OP
all apartment Side
East
listings inWest Sidefourth Uptown
the quarter, declined, change from prior quarter was
development cond-ops—co-op apartments with consistent with each of the quarterly results
$1,400
$1,200 mixed The median sales price of a Manhattan
condo rules.
$1,200
$1,000 of the past three years. There were 3,782 re- condo was $995,000 in the fourth quarter, down
Days on market expanded as listing discount
$1,000
$800 sales and new development condo units on the 11.2% from $1,120,075 in the prior year quarter
jumped The average days on market was 151 market at the end of the fourth quarter, 28.3% and down 2% from $1,015,124 in the prior quarter.
$800
$600
days, down nominally from 152 days in the prior below the 5,273 units in the same period last This is the lowest result for this price indicator in
$600
$400
year quarter, but 17 days longer than 134 days year and 16.9% below the prior quarter total of approximately three years. Average sales price
in $400 prior quarter. Listing discount continues
the
$200 4Q 08 1Q 09 4,549. Of the condos listed for sale, 09
2Q 09 3Q 09 4Q 47.4% or was $1,631,872 in the fourth quarter, down 3.5%
to $200
expand, reaching 18.3% as compared to 4.5%
4Q 08 1Q 09 1,793 units were new development 4Q 09 and
2Q 09 3Q 09 listings from $1,691,459 in the same period last year, but
LISTING�DISCOUNT�VS��DAYS�ON�MARKET�/�CO�OP
in the prior year quarter and 12.5% in the prior 52.6% or 1,989 units were re-sale listings. 200
The up 3.3% from $1,579,438 in the prior quarter.
20%
LISTING�DISCOUNT�VS��DAYS�ON�MARKET�/�CO�OP
quarter. The combination of declining inventory new development market share does not include Price per square foot followed a similar pattern,
20% 200
and rising number of sales suggests that that
16% “shadow inventory” which is estimated to be more
Days On Market 175 falling 7% to $1,187 from $1,277 per square foot
remaining listings required larger discounts to
16% than 6,000 units. There were 1,209 condo sales
175 in the prior year quarter and rising 7.8% from
12% Days On Market 150
reach current market levels as buyers continue this quarter, down 6.8% from 1,297 units in the $1,101 in the prior quarter. Median sales price by
12% 150
to control the market.
8% same period last year and down 2.1% from 125 1,235 apartment size saw double digit declines in all
8% units in the prior quarter. When breaking down
125 categories as compared to the same period last
4% Listing Discount 100
market share by re-sale and new development year with the exception of the 1-bedroom market,
4% 100
0% Listing Discount
4Q 08 1Q 09 2Q 09 3Q 09 4Q 09 75 posting a 2.1% decline. All segments were either
0% 4Q 08 1Q 09 2Q 09 3Q 09 4Q 09 75 unchanged or higher than the median sales price
AVERAGE�PRICE�PER�SQ�FT�/�CONDO Downtown East Side West Side Uptown
of the prior quarter.
$2,500
AVERAGE�PRICE�PER�SQ�FT�/�CONDO Downtown East Side West Side Uptown
Days on market jumped while listing discount
$2,500
$2,000 showed mixed results The days on market for
$2,000
$1,500 condos was 259 days, more than three months
longer than the 164 days in the prior year quarter
$1,500
$1,000 and more than two months longer than the 194
$1,000
$500 days of the prior quarter. The sharp increase in
$500
this metric is attributable to disparity between the
$0 4Q 08 1Q 09 2Q 09 3Q 09 4Q 09 454 days on market for active new development
$0 4Q 08 1Q 09
LISTING�DISCOUNT�VS��DAYS�ON�MARKET�/�CONDO
2Q 09 3Q 09 4Q 09 units and 167 days on market for re-sale units,
20% 275
consistent with the 151 days on market for co-
LISTING�DISCOUNT�VS��DAYS�ON�MARKET�/�CONDO
op apartments. The average listing discount was
20% 275
16% Days On Market 250 7.1% in the fourth quarter, down from 9.4% in the
16%
12%
Days On Market 250
225 prior year quarter and up from 3.6% in the prior
225
quarter.
12%
8% 200
8% Listing Discount 200
175
4%
4% Listing Discount 175
0% 4Q 08 1Q 09 2Q 09 3Q 09 4Q 09 150
0% 4Q 08 1Q 09 2Q 09 3Q 09 4Q 09 150
AVERAGE�PRICE�PER�SQ�FT�/�LUXURY AVERAGE�PRICE�PER�SQ�FT�/�LOFT
$3,500
AVERAGE�PRICE�PER�SQ�FT�/�LUXURY Current Qtr $1,700
AVERAGE�PRICE�PER�SQ�FT�/�LOFT Prior Year Qtr
COndO Market Matrix % Chg Prior Qtr % Chg COndO apartMent Mix % of Total Median Price
$3,000
$3,500
Average Sales Price $1,631,872 $1,500 $1,579,438
3.3%$1,700 -3.5% $1,691,459 Studio 12% $456,300
$3,000
$2,500
Average Price per Square Foot $1,187 $1,300
7.8%
$1,500 $1,101 -7% $1,277
1 bedroom 38% $750,000
Median Sales Price
$2,000
$2,500 $995,000 -2%
$1,300 $1,015,124
$1,100 -11.2% $1,120,075
Number of Sales
$1,500
$2,000 1,209 -2.1% $900
$1,100 1,235 -6.8% 1,297 2 bedroom 28% $1,375,000
Days on Market (from Last List Date)
$1,000 259 33.5% 194 57.9% 164
$1,500 4Q 08 1Q 09 2Q 09 3Q 09 4Q 09 $700
$900 4Q 08 1Q 09 2Q 09 3Q 09 4Q 09 3 bedroom 19% $2,670,000
Listing Discount (from Last List Price) 7.1% 3.6% 9.4%
$1,000 4Q 08 1Q 09 2Q 09 3Q 09 4Q 09 $700 4Q 08 4+ bedroom 3% $5,850,000
Listing Inventory 3,782 -16.9% 4,5491Q 09
-28.3% 09
2Q 3Q 09 4Q 09
5,273
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