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- 2. PopulationPopulation • Demographics is the study of human population distribution and migration. • Key Issues of Demographics are: – Food Supply – Health and life expectancy – Status of women – Migration
- 3. People are NOT distributed evenly across the Earth. Population is clustered in the mid latitude climates and relatively sparse in the dry and polar climates or the highlands.
- 5. • Distribution- ¾ of the world’s population lives on only 5% of the land. Very uneven distribution was intensified in the 20th cent. as population soared. 2/3 of the pop. lives near an ocean or river. • Carrying capacity-the number of people that can be supported in an area given the technology of production. • Density-the measure of the number of people per square mile/kilometer, etc. – Arithmetic density-total number of people divided by the total land area. It is the most common statistic given. – Physiologic density-is the number of people per unit of arable (farmable) land.
- 7. Physiologic Population Density – number of people per unit area of agriculturally productive land (takes this map into account).
- 8. Physiologic Population Density Luxor,Egypt. Egypt’s arable landsEgypt’s arable lands are along the Nileare along the Nile River Valley.River Valley. Moving away from theMoving away from the river a few blocks, theriver a few blocks, the land becomes sandyland becomes sandy and wind-sculpted.and wind-sculpted.
- 12. World Population Cartogram Countries named have at least 50 million
- 13. SE Asia
- 14. Major Population Concentrations • East Asia-1/4 of the world’s population is here- China with 1.3 billion. • There are ribbon like extensions in China along the Chang and Huang rivers, but most live on the east coast. • Other areas include Japan, Korea and Vietnam. • Most people are farmers, not city dwellers.
- 15. Asia • India has reached 1 billion and rising. • China imposed 1 child policy in the 1980s and growth rate dropped from 1.2% to 1% by late 1990s, but has 1.3 billion. • East Asia as a whole has a growth rate of . 9% which is half the rate of 20 years ago.
- 16. Major PopulationPopulation Concentrations • South Asia-the 2nd major population cluster. • Like East Asia there are finger-like extension of dense pop. that follows the Ganges and Indus rivers. • There are 1.5 billion in South Asia and India recently passed the 1 billion mark. • Bangladesh (size of Iowa) with 125 million.
- 18. Major PopulationPopulation Concentrations • Europe-the 3rd in population with 700 million. • Europe is very urbanized with 75% to 90% living in cities. • Europe’s population distribution is not closely tied to terrain, but more closely tied to coal fields. • Population density varies from the highest in the Netherlands to very low in Iceland. Closely spaced houses in Amsterdam, Netherlands
- 19. Major PopulationPopulation Concentrations • North America- East Central US and SE Canada equals ¼ the size of the smallest Eurasian concentration. • Unlike Europe, North America has large areas of sparsely populated regions. • Megalopolis Boston to Washington, D.C. which includes New York, Philadelphia and Boston. • Other major population concentrations: Chicago, Detroit, Cleveland, San Francisco, Los Angeles and San Diego. Skyscrapers of Manhattan New York
- 22. • Demographic Change is calculated by looking at the original population, adding births, subtracting deaths, adding immigrants and subtracting emigrants to equal total population. • Or OP = B – D + I – E = TP
- 24. Population Growth • From Dawn of History to 1820 to reach 1 billion • 1820-1930 to reach 2 billion • 1970s only 12 years to add another billion. • Then a decade for another billion.
- 26. World Population Growth – Rate of natural increase (does not take into account immigration and emigration).
- 27. Today, the pace of world population growth is slowing. Where have Total Fertility Rates (TFRs) fallen below replacement level and why?
- 28. • 80 million people added to the world pop. each year. • Demographers estimate growth will stabilize in the 21st cent. • Doubling time-the number of years needed to double a population-divide the % of increase by 70 to get doubling time in years.
- 30. Geography of DemographyGeography of Demography • India has explosive growth in Assam (northeast) & those states that border Bangladesh on the Ganges- Brahmaputra Basin. • India will overtake China as the most population nation-1.9% growth with 18 m. added each year. • Population planning began in the 1950s with little money. • 1960s more serious efforts
- 31. Geography of DemographyGeography of Demography • State of Maharashatra planned to sterilize anyone with over 3 children-a riot erupted-plan was dropped. • Today advertising to encourage families to have fewer children-a low key, noncompulsory approach. • Some Indian states have over 100 m. more than many countries • Religious diversity makes a national population policy difficult
- 32. Maharashtra, India. A sign reads “free family planning sterlization operation” closed in 1996.
- 33. World Birth Rate – number of births in a year per 1,000 people.
- 34. World Mortality Rate – number of deaths in a year per 1,000 people.
- 35. South America • Brazil has dropped its growth rate from 2.9% to 1.3% in 30 years. • Argentina, Chile and Uruguay are well below the world growth rate.
- 36. • In 1798 he published An Essay on the Principle of Population • Malthus was the first to sound the alarm that the world’s population was expanding more rapidly than food production. • He was the first to recognize exponential or geometric population growth. • Today those who share his concerns are Neo- Malthusians Rev. Thomas Malthus 1766-1834
- 37. • Demographic cycles of population growth – Stage 1 High Stationary Growth with high birth rates 40/1000 or higher and high death rates. – Stage 2 Early Expanding with high birth rates and declining death rates (birth 40s/death 20/1000) = rapid growth in pop. – Stage 3 Late Expanding with declining birth rates (30s) and low death rates (10) = still significant growth – Stage 4 Low Stationary has low birth rates and low death rates (birth 15 and death 10 or lower) SPL Stationary Population Level
- 39. Second Agricultural Revolution and Industrial Revolution • 18th century gains in agricultural production: – Crop yields improved with better farming methods – New crops such as potatoes, turnips and alfalfa – Storage and distribution improved which alleviated famines and shortages. • Industrial Revolution was also a factor: – Improved sanitation – Improved medical care – Disease prevention such as smallpox vaccine
- 40. • Crude death rate-the number of deaths per 1,000 each year. • Crude birth rate-the number of births per 1,000 each year. • Natural increase (NIR)rate-the % by which a population grows in a year. Computed by subtracting the % of CBR-CDR. • Total Fertility Rate (TFR) the number of children born to women of childbearing age-usually reported as a percentage. • Dependency ratio-the number of people who are too young or too old to work compared to the number of people old enough to work.
- 42. Total Fertility Rate (TFR) of 2.1 to 2.5 children per woman is considered “replacement level.”
- 44. • Maternal mortality ratio is the greatest health disparity between the developed and developing countries. • The World Health Organization reports that 600,000 women die each year from complications of pregnancy. • Social, cultural and economic barriers prevent women in the developing countries from receiving proper health care.
- 45. Population Pyramids – Charts that show the percentages of each age group in the total population, divided by gender. For poorer countries, the chart is shaped like a pyramid. Infant mortality rates are high, life expectancy is shorter.
- 46. • Population Pyramids- display a country’s population in a bar graph form. • Each 5 year group with the youngest 0-4 years old at the base of the pyramid are called cohorts. • Males are shown on the left side and females are shown on the right. • A wide-based pyramid indicates a country in Stage 2 of the Demographic transition.
- 47. Population Pyramids Charts that show the percentages of each age group in the total population, divided by gender. For wealthier countries, the chart is shaped like a lopsided vase. Population is aging, TFRs are declining.
- 48. • Four Patterns of Population Structure • Each nation faces different problems due to a large base with many young or negative growth.
- 49. In poorer countries, Infant Mortality Rates are usually high, which is reflected in the pyramid shape.
- 50. In poorer countries, Life Expectancy is usually shorter, which is also reflected in the pyramid shape.
- 51. Affect of AIDS on population pyramid for South Africa. Predicted population for 2035, without and with AIDS. With AIDS, looks like a population “chimney.”
- 52. AIDS is leaving large numbers of AIDS orphans.
- 53. • 1995 Population Pyramids reflect the economic prosperity of Western Europe and the less developed countries of Sub-Saharan Africa. In the mid-1990s almost 50% of Africa’s population was under 15 years of age. • By contrast the number of people 65 and older in Western Europe is 5 times that of sub-Saharan Africa.
- 54. Age Structure of a PopulationAge Structure of a Population • The populations of many countries are aging. - eg. Europe - eg. Japan Bordeaux, France
- 55. Population PoliciesPopulation Policies • Under Mao, China refused to cooperate in pop. Control- viewed it as a “capitalist plot” • Soviets in 1970s promoted population growth due to the loss of 26 million in WWII, Stalin exterminated another 30 million farmers, political opponents, etc.-gave awards for women with 10 or more kids. • US Reagan, a conservative, refused to support family planning
- 56. Population PoliciesPopulation Policies • Expansive Policies or Pro- Natalist policies encourage large families e.g. Fascist Italy, Nazi Germany, Soviet Union & Ceausescu’s Romania & Mao’s China. • Eugenic Population Policy-Nazi Germany favored “Aryans” over mentally ill or other undesirables. • The Nazis tried to breed the super race of Nordic or Aryan types.
- 57. Population PoliciesPopulation Policies • Restrictive or Anti-Natalist Policies discourage births. • Policies vary- e.g. despite Vatican policies, most Catholic Italians practice artificial birth control-Philippines (only Asian Catholic country) a different case-govt. restricts birth control. • Some countries have learned that industrialization & urbanization do as much as government policy in controlling births.
- 58. Geography of DemographyGeography of Demography • Mao Zedong encouraged population growth-after his death Deng Xiaping called for control • 1979 launched the One Child Policy with goal of stabilizing at 1.2 billion by end of 20th cent. • 1970s growth rate 2.4% • 1985 growth rate 1.1% • After 1982 more serious enforcement-mandatory contraception after 1st child. • If a 2nd child was born-parents were sterilized.
- 59. China’s One Child PolicyChina’s One Child Policy What are some of the limitations, unintended consequences, and contradictions found in government policies toward population growth?
- 61. Geography of DemographyGeography of Demography • Recognized minorities (3%) of pop. were exempt • Many rural Chinese defied rule, hid pregnant women, failed to register births, prevented inspectors from visiting rural villages. • Government took drastic action: – Violators were fired – Land was confiscated – Lost all benefits – Pregnant women were arrested & forced to have abortions
- 62. Geography of DemographyGeography of Demography • First 6 years 70 million abortions • 1980s about 20 million sterilizations a year-3X as many women as men. • Party Members were birth control police-got cash and promotion for enforcing the laws. • 1984 One Child Policy was relaxed in the countryside-a couple with a daughter-2nd child after 4 years.
- 63. Geography of DemographyGeography of Demography • Corruption a major problem- permitted to evade rule-bribe. • Fertility rates are rising as the rules are relaxed. • One Child Policy was practical-but rural tradition opposed the rule • Drive for Zero Population Growth eroded the traditions of Chinese society. • Female infanticide a common occurrence.
- 66. • Attendants or “pushers” on the Japan Train system. • Despite having a declining population, Japan has a very high population density.
- 67. Low Growth in DenmarkLow Growth in Denmark Since the 1970s, with little population growth since then. Its1970s, with little population growth since then. Its population pyramid shows increasing numbers of elderlypopulation pyramid shows increasing numbers of elderly and few children.and few children.
- 69. • Japan has a problem of an aging population & low birth rates. • Japanese govt. bars immigration of foreign workers-solution automation-but it won’t solve the problem of an aging population. • Singapore imposed a campaign of sterilization & abortion to curb growth-it worked.
- 72. THE END
Notas del editor
- For the 1 st 200,000 years of modern man emergence from Africa-the population grew very slowly, then as the last ice age ended and the amount of habitable space expanded, population began to grow.
- Food Supply -in the 1960s the fear of rapid population growth outpacing food supply was a main concern. The Green Revolution helped to ease the gap by introducing higher yield strains of rice, wheat and corn. Scientists continue to warn that an increase in population and the increased consumption of meat could lead to a global food crisis. Health -infant mortality, child mortality and over all life expectancies are concerns of demographers. Women- efforts to curb population growth have the greatest impact on women-some societies practice female infanticide or female children are malnourished or deprived of care. Where women are educated-birth rates decline. Migration- the movement of millions of people across international boundaries and internal migration to evade poverty or war or environmental disasters are also concerns of demographers. (train in Jakarta, Indonesia-one of the world’s most populous cities with 11 million people)
- Earth: The Apple of Our Eye Activity Slice an apple into quarters-remove ¾=oceans Slice the quarter left (land) into 4 pieces set aside 3 = 2/3 are too rocky, wet, cold or covered by cities 1/32 left –peel the remaining piece=the topsoil surface that can grow food
- Compare the distribution of population and the global climates
- Distribution-arable land is only a fraction of the Earth’s surface- Often population maps are shown by using dots to represent populations. We have always been unevenly distributed-but the uneven distribution intensified in the 20 th century. Numbers are very important-every 10 years since 1790 the US govt. has done an official nation-wide census or count of the population to determine representation in Congress and the distribution of federal aid. Mayors of big cities have been upset in recent years since inner cities are notoriously undercounted in the census. Why? The US Census Bureau also gathers world population data. United Nations officials also keeps statistics as does the World Bank and the Population Reference Bureau. Growth rates, health and food availability are often estimates and are subject to error and inconsistency.
- Arithmetic density is the total number of people divided by the total land area. The highest population densities are found in Asia, Europe and Central America. Population Density Demo 5 chairs with 1 person= California 3 people= China 7 people= Japan 15 people= Taiwan 85 people= Hong Kong
- Physiological density is the number of people per unit of arable land, which is land suitable for agriculture. Physiological density is a better measure than arithmetic density of the relationship between population and resources. Even physiological density can be misleading since it does not consider the productivity of the soil or the resources and expertise of the farmers.
- Note that Egypt, Japan and India do not have a large number of people per square mile, but the arithmetic density is deceiving-note the difference in the physiological density. Egypt with only 2% arable land is the worst off. Japan with only 11% is also a very densely populated nation. Note the high physiological density for Switzerland-why? 98% of Egypt’s population lives on just 3% of the land. Notice the very high density for the Netherlands as well. Notice that the US and Colombia have Arithmetic densities that are very similar, but the physiological density is very different. Why?
- Note the 3 Eurasian clusters of Europe, South Asia and East Asia Key=0-2 sq mile lightest color next color 2-60 sq mile next color60-250 darkest color over 250
- Top Kolkata, India street scene Bottom-China’s One Child Policy Poster
- Street scene in Kolkata, India
- From the dawn of history to 1820 to reach 1 billion people Took only 12 years to add 1 billion in the 1970s and 1980s Currently about 90 million added a year
- 1975 4 billion-world population increased from 3 to 4 billion in 14 years 1987 5 billion-from 4 to 5 billion in 13 years 1998 6 billion-from 5 to 6 billion in 12 years A growth rate of 1 billion people per decade. By 1997 growth rate was 1.5% - today 1.4%
- Food production is linear or arithmetic in growth Population is exponential or geometric in growth In 1995 the US growth rate was .7% which gives us a doubling time of 98 years. Nigeria with a growth rate of 3% will double in just 20 years. Africa’s growth rate up from 2.4% to 2.8% despite AIDS epidemic, the fastest growth rate in the world. In Africa and in the Muslim realm cultural traditions and constricted opportunities for women contribute to the rapid population growth rate. Doubling time-divide the % of increase by 70 to get the doubling time in years
- After 2 centuries of slow growth, world population began explosive growth after WW II. UN Projections are for global growth of nearly 9 billion by 2050. The total may rise to over 11 billion by the end of the 21 st century. Greatest growth in the 1990s took place in Asia, Sub-Saharan Africa.
- Thomas Malthus 1766-1834 a political economist and a clergyman he published a short book called Essay on Population in 1789 in which he argued that food production would always be outpaced by population growth. Positive checks on population growth include war, famine and disease. As a conservative clergyman he disapproved of birth control by artificial means.
- Stage 1 has virtually no growth rate with very high birth and death rates. Most of human existence was in Stage 1 of the Demographic Transition model. Today no country is in this category. Stage 2 has rapidly declining death rates and very high birth rates to produce population growth. In the late 18 th and early 19 th centuries several countries moved to stage 2 as the Industrial Revolution took place. Europe and North America entered Stage 2 about 1800, but Africa, Asia and South America did not reach stage 2 until around 1950. Africa, Asia and Latin America reached Stage 2 not because of an Industrial Revolution, but a medical revolution invented in Europe and North America and diffused to these places. Stage 3 European and North American countries moved from Stage 2 to Stage 3 in the first half of the 20 th cent. Most of Asia and Latin America moved to Stage 3 in the last half of the 20 th cent. while Africa remained in Stage 2. Nations enter Stage 3 when people decide to have fewer kids since living in cities and working in factories or offices requires fewer people. Stage 4 When the crude birth rate equals the crude death rate zero population growth is achieved or Stage 4. Some argue that this model is useful only to study the demographic history of the core countries.
- Before 1750 Death rates were 35 and Birth rates were 39 per 1,000 a rate of increase of .4% or a doubling time of 150 years By 1850 Death rates were 16 and Birth rates were 36 with a rate of increase of 2% and a doubling time of 35 years.
- Crude Birth Rate is the total number of live births in a year per 1,000 people in a society. A crude birth rate of 20 means that for every 1,000 people in a country-20 babies are born over a one-year period. Crude Death rate is the total number of deaths in a year for every 1,000 people. Natural increase rate is the percentage by which a country grows each year. If the CBR is 20 and the CDR is 5 the NIR is 15 per 1000 or 1.5 this excludes migration or immigration.
- Crude Death Rates show less world wide variability than do birth rates due to widespread availability of at least minimal health care and a generally youthful population in the developing nations where death rates are frequently lower than in “old age” Europe.
- TFR is the average number of children that would be born to each woman if during her child-bearing years, she bore children at the same rate as women of those ages actually did in a given year. It is age-adjusted, thus 2 nations with identical birth rates may have quite different fertility rates and prospects for growth.
- Dramatic declines in the rates have occurred in all countries as a result of international health care delivery programs. Despite these efforts the most dramatic decreases in infant mortality have been in the urbanize, industrialized west.
- Issues facing pregnant women in the developing world are malnutrition, anemia, lack of access to maternal health care, pregnancy at a young age when the body is not fully mature. Women are considered expendable in parts of the world where they have low status.
- Kenya will face many employment problems when the bottom cohort is old enough to work. Austria’s negative growth means a future with fewer workers to support social services. Russia’s 1992 pyramid shows the sharp decline in births during WW II as the “pinching” of 45-49 cohort. Also note the large deficits of men above 65 due to the heavy male mortality during the World Wars
- Eugenics-science devoted to improving the human race through heredity=control who mates with who. An SS banner flies over a lebensborn where babies born of good German girls and SS officers were cared for.
- China’s aggressive policy enforcement of the One couple, one child” is displayed on this billboard. Violators are subject to heavy fines, loss of job, loss of access to better housing and other penalties.
- Harbin Hospital nurse checks newborns. In some areas a second or third child resulted in 10% reduction in income until kid is 14 yrs old.
- Bottom Chinese woman recently released from jail for having 2 nd child
- Germany’s population profile is that of a wealthy core country that has passed through the post war baby boom and has a low birthrate. Note the impact of the losses of World War I and World War II.
- 85 years and older is the fastest growing group in the US Population 2005 the “old old” topped 5 million By 2050 it is expected to be 20 million Midwest has a high percentage since the young leave for jobs elsewhere. Boston and San Francisco have gone grayer as seniors age in place.
- Picture at right-Singapore sky line and harbor
- deblij_ch02_table01.jpg
- Population Pyramid of US Baby Boomers, 1960-2040 Pyramids can be based on current, past or future projections. Note the progression of the baby boomer cohorts as they age. Note that the pyramid becomes a column by the year 2040 as birth rates remain below death rates for each cohort. Note also the significant number of women compared to men in the oldest age groups