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Monitoring, evaluation and impact assessment C. Crissman Science Week Workshop 22 July 2011, Penang Photo: A. Gordon
Workshop objectives ,[object Object],[object Object]
What is Results Based Management? ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Source: Meyer 2003
RBM rests on four pillars ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Source: Meyer, 2003
[object Object],[object Object],The CG Consortium Strategy and Results Framework
CG use of RBM tools in  Planning, Monitoring and Evaluation ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
The results chain Source: ADB, 2006
WorldFish Strategic Plan Research  in  Development  Reduce poverty and vulnerability through fisheries and aquaculture. Increase food  and nutrition security through fisheries and aquaculture.   Our Strategic Results
Multiple dimensions of poverty Certain groups are systematically disadvantaged due to discrimination based on: gender, ethnicity, race, religion, caste, age, HIV status, migrant status People’s exposure to risks; sensitivity of livelihoods to risks; capacity to use assets and capabilities to cope and adapt Little access to means to make a decent standard of living A complex problem… Vulnerability Income and asset poverty Marginalization
Interventions to reduce poverty Organisational development, labour rights, migrant’s rights, gender equity Improve access to health services, secure land rights, aquatic property rights Diversification, microfinance, education & skills … requiring complex solutions Vulnerability Income and asset poverty Marginalization
Selecting paradigms for implementation AR4D
Strategic Plan –  Implementation strategy
Outputs - change in knowledge - change in capacity - change in technology  - change in materials - change in policy options - change in awareness/understanding Research   - recognition/appreciation of research knowledge  Outcomes - use of knowledge by partners - mobilisation of new capacity - extension of technology/materials - change in policy environment Impacts - change in problem - change in opportunities Development - change in actions/behaviour of stakeholders Outcomes - change in productivity - change in equity/empowerment - change in market conditions  - change in investments - change in security of assets/habitats
Ex-post Impact Assessment Measuring ‘the change in the problem’ Reduce poverty and vulnerability through fisheries and aquaculture. Increase food  and nutrition security through fisheries and aquaculture.
Did we make it to happen?
Following a Recipe   A Rocket to the Moon   Raising a Child ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Complicated Complex ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Simple (Diagram from Zimmerman 2003)
What should be monitored? SIMPLE COMPLICATED COMPLEX What works? What works in what contexts? (implementation environments and participant characteristics) What works here and now? What do we mean by ‘works’?
Types of interventions Simple intervention  Complicated or complex intervention Single causal strand.  Intervention is sufficient to produce the impacts Multiple simultaneous causal strands required to produce the impacts Universal mechanism  Intervention is necessary to produce the impacts Different causal mechanisms operating in different contexts Linear causality, proportional impact Recursive, with feedback loops, leading to disproportionate impact at critical levels Pre-identified outcomes Emergent outcomes
Challenges for impact assessment Simple Complicated Complex Deciding impacts Likely to be agreed Likely to differ, reflecting different agendas May be emergent Describing impacts More likely to have standardised measures developed Evidence needed about multiple components  Harder to plan for given emergence Analysing cause Likely to be clear counter-factual Causal packages and non-linearity Unique, highly contingent causality Reporting Clear messages Complicated message  Uptake requires further adaptation
M&E system interaction with project implementation Monitoring captures what happened Evaluation explains why
M&E Implementation strategy
Evaluations and the R4D Results Chain Scale Pilot / Small Global Research Unit of Impact Analysis Project System Program Outcome evaluation studies that measure the  effect size Outcome evaluation that measures the  scale  of output adoption/ uptake Time Input Output Outcome Impact Objectives Goals Program M&E, Impact pathway analysis, Adoption constraints analysis Ex post  Impact Assessment as a function of  (effect size * scale) Source:  taken from a presentation by M. Maredia
Evaluations Process implementation evaluation What did or did not get implemented as planned?  Rapid Appraisals provide timely, relevant information to decision-makers on pressing issues they face in the project and program setting.  The aim of applied research is . . . to facilitate a more rational decision-making process in real-life circumstances Impact Evaluation  …  the classic evaluation that attempts to find out the changes that occurred, and to what they can be attributed Performance Logic Chain Assessment The performance logic chain assessment evaluation strategy is used to determine the strength and logic of the causal model behind the policy, program, or project. ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Case Studies  …  use when a manager needs in-depth information to understand more clearly what happened with a policy, program, or project
Logic Models and Theory of Change  Photo: World Bank
Conventional logic for achieving results Inspired by Jeff Conklin, cognexus.org Are we efficient? Are we effective?  Source: cognexus.org ACTIVITIES OUTPUTS OUTCOMES IMPACT INPUTS Time
Works well for outputs Inspired by Jeff Conklin, cognexus.org Workshops, training manuals, research and assessment reports, guidelines and action plans, strategies, and technical assistance packages, amongst others. Source: cognexus.org ACTIVITIES OUTPUTS OUTCOMES IMPACT INPUTS Time
But not so well for outcomes and impact Source: cognexus.org Multiple pathways of changes in behavior of different, interacting actors; this is where we have the possibility of collecting and making sense of evidence that sustains the impact we are aiming to contribute to. Social change is long-term, complex and is the result of what many actors do (their actions and interactions)  Vision and Mission Intentional design ACTIVITIES OUTPUTS OUTCOMES IMPACT INPUTS Time
Logic Models and Theory of Change  ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Logic Models ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
What is a logic model? Basic United Way format, 1996 Inputs Activities Outputs Inter-mediate Outcomes Long-term Outcomes
Theories of Change ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
What is a Theory of Change? Long-term Outcome Necessary  Pre- condition Necessary  Pre- condition Necessary  Pre- condition Necessary  Pre- condition Necessary  Pre- condition All outcomes that must be achieved BEFORE long-term Explain WHY here Show activities here also
How are they different? ,[object Object],[object Object]
How are they different?  (1) ,[object Object],[object Object]
How are they different?   (2) ,[object Object],[object Object]
How are they different? ,[object Object],Logic Models Theories of Change Representation  List of Components Descriptive Critical Thinking Pathway of Change Explanatory
When to Use? ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
When to Use? ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

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Workshop: Monitoring, evaluation and impact assessment

  • 1. Monitoring, evaluation and impact assessment C. Crissman Science Week Workshop 22 July 2011, Penang Photo: A. Gordon
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  • 7. The results chain Source: ADB, 2006
  • 8. WorldFish Strategic Plan Research in Development Reduce poverty and vulnerability through fisheries and aquaculture. Increase food and nutrition security through fisheries and aquaculture. Our Strategic Results
  • 9. Multiple dimensions of poverty Certain groups are systematically disadvantaged due to discrimination based on: gender, ethnicity, race, religion, caste, age, HIV status, migrant status People’s exposure to risks; sensitivity of livelihoods to risks; capacity to use assets and capabilities to cope and adapt Little access to means to make a decent standard of living A complex problem… Vulnerability Income and asset poverty Marginalization
  • 10. Interventions to reduce poverty Organisational development, labour rights, migrant’s rights, gender equity Improve access to health services, secure land rights, aquatic property rights Diversification, microfinance, education & skills … requiring complex solutions Vulnerability Income and asset poverty Marginalization
  • 11. Selecting paradigms for implementation AR4D
  • 12. Strategic Plan – Implementation strategy
  • 13. Outputs - change in knowledge - change in capacity - change in technology - change in materials - change in policy options - change in awareness/understanding Research - recognition/appreciation of research knowledge Outcomes - use of knowledge by partners - mobilisation of new capacity - extension of technology/materials - change in policy environment Impacts - change in problem - change in opportunities Development - change in actions/behaviour of stakeholders Outcomes - change in productivity - change in equity/empowerment - change in market conditions - change in investments - change in security of assets/habitats
  • 14. Ex-post Impact Assessment Measuring ‘the change in the problem’ Reduce poverty and vulnerability through fisheries and aquaculture. Increase food and nutrition security through fisheries and aquaculture.
  • 15. Did we make it to happen?
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  • 17. What should be monitored? SIMPLE COMPLICATED COMPLEX What works? What works in what contexts? (implementation environments and participant characteristics) What works here and now? What do we mean by ‘works’?
  • 18. Types of interventions Simple intervention Complicated or complex intervention Single causal strand. Intervention is sufficient to produce the impacts Multiple simultaneous causal strands required to produce the impacts Universal mechanism Intervention is necessary to produce the impacts Different causal mechanisms operating in different contexts Linear causality, proportional impact Recursive, with feedback loops, leading to disproportionate impact at critical levels Pre-identified outcomes Emergent outcomes
  • 19. Challenges for impact assessment Simple Complicated Complex Deciding impacts Likely to be agreed Likely to differ, reflecting different agendas May be emergent Describing impacts More likely to have standardised measures developed Evidence needed about multiple components Harder to plan for given emergence Analysing cause Likely to be clear counter-factual Causal packages and non-linearity Unique, highly contingent causality Reporting Clear messages Complicated message Uptake requires further adaptation
  • 20. M&E system interaction with project implementation Monitoring captures what happened Evaluation explains why
  • 22. Evaluations and the R4D Results Chain Scale Pilot / Small Global Research Unit of Impact Analysis Project System Program Outcome evaluation studies that measure the effect size Outcome evaluation that measures the scale of output adoption/ uptake Time Input Output Outcome Impact Objectives Goals Program M&E, Impact pathway analysis, Adoption constraints analysis Ex post Impact Assessment as a function of (effect size * scale) Source: taken from a presentation by M. Maredia
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  • 24. Logic Models and Theory of Change Photo: World Bank
  • 25. Conventional logic for achieving results Inspired by Jeff Conklin, cognexus.org Are we efficient? Are we effective? Source: cognexus.org ACTIVITIES OUTPUTS OUTCOMES IMPACT INPUTS Time
  • 26. Works well for outputs Inspired by Jeff Conklin, cognexus.org Workshops, training manuals, research and assessment reports, guidelines and action plans, strategies, and technical assistance packages, amongst others. Source: cognexus.org ACTIVITIES OUTPUTS OUTCOMES IMPACT INPUTS Time
  • 27. But not so well for outcomes and impact Source: cognexus.org Multiple pathways of changes in behavior of different, interacting actors; this is where we have the possibility of collecting and making sense of evidence that sustains the impact we are aiming to contribute to. Social change is long-term, complex and is the result of what many actors do (their actions and interactions) Vision and Mission Intentional design ACTIVITIES OUTPUTS OUTCOMES IMPACT INPUTS Time
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  • 30. What is a logic model? Basic United Way format, 1996 Inputs Activities Outputs Inter-mediate Outcomes Long-term Outcomes
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  • 32. What is a Theory of Change? Long-term Outcome Necessary Pre- condition Necessary Pre- condition Necessary Pre- condition Necessary Pre- condition Necessary Pre- condition All outcomes that must be achieved BEFORE long-term Explain WHY here Show activities here also
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Notas del editor

  1. OM was developed by IDRC, based in Ottawa, as a response to some of the challenges they were facing when using a more conventional results chain. Projects were having difficulty with the linear characteristic of this logic As well as the it’s cause-and-effect nature
  2. OM was developed by IDRC, based in Ottawa, as a response to some of the challenges they were facing when using a more conventional results chain. Projects were having difficulty with the linear characteristic of this logic As well as the it’s cause-and-effect nature
  3. OM was developed by IDRC, based in Ottawa, as a response to some of the challenges they were facing when using a more conventional results chain. Projects were having difficulty with the linear characteristic of this logic As well as the it’s cause-and-effect nature