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Louisiana Haynesville Shale Report May, 2011




Louisiana Haynesville Shale
                     REPORT
                      Summer, 2011




  SPONSORED BY CADDO MINERALS INC. - CADDOMINERALS.COM
Louisiana Haynesville Shale Report                                                                            2

Well Activity




                          Benton



  Shreveport



                                                         Haynesville Shale
                                                             “Core”




        Mansfield
                                                  Coushatta


        Wells Currently Producing                   Wells Not Yet Producing             Wells Permitted
                     1,072                                   626                             309



                                 Permits for New Haynesville Shale Wells
 300

 250

 200

 150

 100

  50

    0
         Q1 2009        Q2 2009      Q3 2009   Q4 2009   Q1 2010   Q2 2010    Q3 2010    Q4 2010   Q1 2011E
Louisiana Haynesville Shale Report                                                                                                                                                            3

      What Landowners Should Expect for 2011
                           Drilling in the Haynesville Shale is expected to decrease in 2011 due to continued low natural gas prices and competition from more
                           pro table oil plays. A er 2 years of steady growth, permits for new Haynesville Shale wells peaked in September, 2010 and then fell
                           by 21% in early 2011. Well operators are now only drilling wells that are required to hold their leases. They will not drill development
                           wells until natural gas prices see a substantial increase. Additionally, many leases will expire un-drilled, and will not be re-leased because
                           the Haynesville Shale Core is shrinking.

                                                   Natural Gas Prices (U.S.)                                                                    Haynesville Shale Decline Curve
                           14                                                                                                  20,000

                           12




                                                                                                     Production Rate MCF/Day
Price of Natural Gas ($)




                           10                                                                                                  15,000
                                                                                                                                                      51% Decline
                                                                                                                                                     After 3 Months
                            8
                                                                                                                               10,000
                            6                                                                                                                                     69% Decline
                                                                                                                                                                 After 6 Months
                            4                                                                                                                                                       82% Decline
                                                                                                                                5,000                                              After 12 Months
                            2
                            0                                                                                                       0
                                2007          2008            2009            2010          2011                                        1   2    3   4   5   6   7    8   9   10    11   12
                                                              Year                                                                                   Months of Production


   “As a mineral owner, what should I expect in 2011?”

                           Low Natural Gas Prices
                           Abundant natural gas supplies, caused by development of new shale plays, will continue to depress U.S. natural gas prices.


                           Declining Production Rates
                           The production from Haynesville Shale wells will decline dramatically during the 1st year. The average well declines 69% over the 1st
                           6 months, and 82% over the 1st year.


                           Only 1 Well per Section
                           Haynesville Shale wells are not pro table at current natural gas prices. Until well economics justify drilling new wells, operators will
                           only drill 1 well per section in order to hold the leases.


                           Lease Expirations
                           Many leases outside of the Core will be allowed to expire, and may not be re-leased because of poor well economics.


                           Smaller Royalty Checks
                           Royalty owners will see smaller royalty checks as the 1st well in the section declines, and no additional wells are drilled.


                           Lower Lease Bonuses
                           Landowners with land located outside of the “Core” should not expect to be re-leased. Lease bonuses inside of the Core will be much
                           smaller than during the leasing boom of 2008-2009.
Louisiana Haynesville Shale Report                                                                                                                                                      4

Landowner Risks

                               Montana
                                                                                           Major US Shale Plays
                                Thrust
                                 Belt                                 Williston
                                                                       Basin
                                              Cody
                                                                 Gammon



                                                 Hilliard-                                                                                             Appalachian
                                                                                                                     Michigan                             Basin
                                 Greater            Baxter-                                                           Basin       Antrim
                                 Green               Mancos
                                  River                                                         Forest
                                  Basin                                                        City Basin                                                             Devonian (Ohio)
                              Uinta Basin
                                                                                                                   Illinois                                          Marcellus
                                                                                                                    Basin                                             Utica
                                              Piceance
                             Mancos             Basin                             Excello-                                     New
                            Hermosa                                                Mulky Cherokee Platform                    Albany
                                 Paradox Basin                 Pierre
                                     Lewis                                  Woodford
                                             San Juan
                                                             Raton
                                                             Basin
                                                                   Anadarko                        Fayetteville
                                              Basin                                                                       Chattanooga
                                                                    ArdBasin
                                                                       m                                           Black Warrior
                                                         Palo Duro Bend ore Ba                   Arkoma Basin
                                                                                                                                           Conasauga
                                                                               sin                                        Basin
                                                             Basin
                                                                                                                    Floyd-           Valley and
                                                                                                                                   Ridge Province
                                                                                  Barnett                   Texas- Neal
                                                                     Permian                                Louisiana-
                                                                      Basin       Ft. Worth                 Mississippi Salt Basin                                   Miles
                                        Barnett-     Marfa                             Basin
                                       Woodford      Basin
                                                                                           Haynesville-



                                                                                                                                                                               ±
                                                                                                                                                          0    100   200      300 400
                                                                                  Maverick   Bossier
                                                                                  Sub-Basin
                                                          Pearsall-                    Eagle
                                                         Eagle Ford                     Ford
                                                                               Rio Grande
                                                                               Embayment                  Shale Gas Plays              Basins
                                                                                                     Stacked Plays
                                                                                                               Shallowest / Youngest
                                                                                                               Deepest / Oldest




Hidden Risks of owning minerals in the Haynesville Shale
The oil and gas business is inherently risky, and mineral owners in the Haynesville Shale are not immune to the risks that may impact the
value of their minerals, including…

   Competition from other Shale plays
   If new, emerging shale plays are more pro table than the Haynesville, then well operators will choose to drill in those plays rather than
   in the Haynesville. (see map above)

   Low Natural Gas Prices
   Low natural gas prices will continue to suppress the value of Haynesville Shale minerals (see chart on page 3).

   Regulations
   Tighter regulations on hydraulic well fracturing, spurred on by concerns about protecting drinking water, could be devastating for
   the Haynesville Shale by driving up the cost of the wells, and reducing their productivity.

   Well Operators
   Well operators are in total control of the well, including how it is drilled and produced. A poor operator can greatly diminish the value
   of the minerals.

   Shrinking Core
   The Haynesville Shale “Core”, which is the area of better production, has shrunk as operators drill more wells. Acreage outside of the
   Core is in danger of not being drilled, and leases may be allowed to expire.
Louisiana Haynesville Shale Report                                                                                                             5

Maximizing Value


   “I feel good about my Mineral Ownership, but I’d also
   like to better understand my options.”
   Minerals are a valuable, but risky, investment. Landowners can protect the value of their minerals, and enhance their personal
   situation, by converting their minerals into cash, and by using the proceeds to...




                                                                                                   (Minerals/Land)
       Buy stocks and bonds

       Fund retirement

       Pay for education                                                                  Cash

                                                                                                                    Fixed Income
   Diversification                                                             Foreign Equities                   (Bonds/Pension)



   more value in their minerals than is prudent, and they should consider
                                                                                     Domestic Equities
   re-balancing their portfolio by converting some of their minerals into               (Stocks)
   other investments.



   Should I Sell my Mineral Rights?
   You should consider selling your mineral rights if it makes good nancial
                                                                                          Diversified Portfolio
   sense for you to do so. Get more information on selling your mineral rights at
   CaddoMinerals.com. You can also learn about selling royalties and get tips on
   leasing your land.




   Taking Control
   Landowners can take control of their minerals by asking themselves, "Do I have plenty of cash with no immediate




             If "Yes", then the mineral owner can feel good about retaining their minerals.

             If "No", then the mineral owner should consider selling all, or a portion, of their minerals, and diversifying their portfolio.
Louisiana Haynesville Shale Report                                                                                                            6

 Keys to Success

Keys to a Successful Mineral Transaction
A successful mineral sale requires that both the Buyer and Seller are happy with the result.

   Fair Price
   Agreeing on a fair price is a critical aspect of a successful mineral transaction. Buyers are typically more knowledgeable and objective
   about the real value of the minerals, while Sellers o en react to their emotions and to local hearsay about valuation. Good
   communication is required to bridge the information gap to allow a transaction to occur.

   Title
   Establishing that the seller has good title is key to a mineral sale. The Buyer will research the real property and probate public records
   to establish “record title”. If record title cannot be established, then other steps may be necessary in order to verify ownership and close
   the transaction.

   E cient Closing
   Once a sales price has been agreed to, the Buyer should move quickly to complete the title review process and close the transaction.
   The payment should be in the form of a bank wire or check. Bank dra s o en take longer.

   Good Faith Dealing
   It is imperative that both Buyer and Seller deal in good faith in order to complete a successful transaction.




    CADDO MINERALS
                                                                                                 Cash for Minerals & Royalty
                                                                                                 Leasing Assistance
                                                                                                 No-Hassle Quote
                       a leader in Louisiana’s                                                  Phone - Local - 318-490-0427



   Haynesville Shale
                                                                                                        Toll Free - 877-620-7717
                                                                                                Email - info@caddominerals.com
                                                                                                Online - www.CaddoMinerals.com


How Caddo Minerals Can Help You
   Minerals and Royalty Buyer
   Caddo Minerals is an active buyer of minerals and royalties, focusing on the Haynesville Shale.

   Leasing
   Caddo Minerals can assist landowners in getting their land leased.

   Knowledge and Expertise
   Our professionals are experts and knowledgeable about oil and gas minerals and royalties in the Haynesville Shale. Because of our deep
   knowledge about the minerals market, we are able to pay top dollar.

   Customer Service
   We are committed to serving our customers with the professionalism and respect that they deserve. We move quickly, and we
   “go the extra mile” for our customers.
Louisiana Haynesville Shale Report                                                                                                          7

Questions & Answers

Common Questions about Minerals & Royalty
   What are minerals?
   Minerals are everything below the surface of the land, including oil, gas, and other hard minerals. Minerals do not include subsurface
   well water.

   What is royalty?
   Royalty is the share of revenue that comes to the landowner from the sale of oil and gas produced from under their land or Unit.
   The royalty percentage is set out in the oil and gas lease.

   Can minerals and royalty be separated from the land?
   Yes, a landowner can sell their minerals or royalty while retaining the surface of the land.

   Can a portion of the minerals or royalty be sold?
   Yes, a landowner can sell any portion (eg ¼ or ½) of their minerals or royalty, and retain what they do not sell.

   What about inherited property that is shared with other family members?
   This is very common, and any family member can sell their minerals or royalty without having any e ect on the other family
   members.

   What is a Net Mineral Acre?
   The formula for Net Mineral Acre is ownership interest times tract size. For example, if 2 brothers each own a 1/2 interest in a 2 Acre
   tract, then each brother would own 1 Net Mineral Acre.

   What about Un-leased Land?
   Minerals and royalty have value, and can be sold, whether the land is leased or un-leased.

   What is a Haynesville Shale Unit?
   In Louisiana, Haynesville Shale wells are assigned to a 640 Acre
   Unit, and revenue is allocated to each landowner based on their
   ownership in the Unit and their royalty percentage.


 Assistance in Leasing
 The leasing boom is over in the Haynesville Shale, and oil
 companies are going to allow many leases to expire over the
 coming year. Having an active lease is essential for the
 Landowner to maximize value from his minerals. Identifying the
 best oil company to pick up the open lease, and negotiating
 favorable terms for the lease, requires extensive expertise and
 market knowledge.


 We Can Help
 Caddo Minerals can help you get your minerals leased. We have            Have you considered the benefits of
 years of experience dealing with Oil and Gas companies, and have
 been successful in getting the best deal for our clients.
                                                                              Monetizing your Minerals?
                                                                       Talk to Caddo Minerals                   Contact Us
 Answers
                                                                       Fast Closing                             (318) 490-0427
 If you decide to go at it alone, Caddo is more than happy to share
 a friendly conversation and lend you advice on leasing your           Lump Sum Payment                         info@CaddoMinerals.com
 property. We’re all in this together!                                 Local and Trustworthy                    www.CaddoMinerals.com

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Sell Mineral Rights and Oil & Gas Royalties in the Haynesville Shale

  • 1. Louisiana Haynesville Shale Report May, 2011 Louisiana Haynesville Shale REPORT Summer, 2011 SPONSORED BY CADDO MINERALS INC. - CADDOMINERALS.COM
  • 2. Louisiana Haynesville Shale Report 2 Well Activity Benton Shreveport Haynesville Shale “Core” Mansfield Coushatta Wells Currently Producing Wells Not Yet Producing Wells Permitted 1,072 626 309 Permits for New Haynesville Shale Wells 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 Q1 2009 Q2 2009 Q3 2009 Q4 2009 Q1 2010 Q2 2010 Q3 2010 Q4 2010 Q1 2011E
  • 3. Louisiana Haynesville Shale Report 3 What Landowners Should Expect for 2011 Drilling in the Haynesville Shale is expected to decrease in 2011 due to continued low natural gas prices and competition from more pro table oil plays. A er 2 years of steady growth, permits for new Haynesville Shale wells peaked in September, 2010 and then fell by 21% in early 2011. Well operators are now only drilling wells that are required to hold their leases. They will not drill development wells until natural gas prices see a substantial increase. Additionally, many leases will expire un-drilled, and will not be re-leased because the Haynesville Shale Core is shrinking. Natural Gas Prices (U.S.) Haynesville Shale Decline Curve 14 20,000 12 Production Rate MCF/Day Price of Natural Gas ($) 10 15,000 51% Decline After 3 Months 8 10,000 6 69% Decline After 6 Months 4 82% Decline 5,000 After 12 Months 2 0 0 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Year Months of Production “As a mineral owner, what should I expect in 2011?” Low Natural Gas Prices Abundant natural gas supplies, caused by development of new shale plays, will continue to depress U.S. natural gas prices. Declining Production Rates The production from Haynesville Shale wells will decline dramatically during the 1st year. The average well declines 69% over the 1st 6 months, and 82% over the 1st year. Only 1 Well per Section Haynesville Shale wells are not pro table at current natural gas prices. Until well economics justify drilling new wells, operators will only drill 1 well per section in order to hold the leases. Lease Expirations Many leases outside of the Core will be allowed to expire, and may not be re-leased because of poor well economics. Smaller Royalty Checks Royalty owners will see smaller royalty checks as the 1st well in the section declines, and no additional wells are drilled. Lower Lease Bonuses Landowners with land located outside of the “Core” should not expect to be re-leased. Lease bonuses inside of the Core will be much smaller than during the leasing boom of 2008-2009.
  • 4. Louisiana Haynesville Shale Report 4 Landowner Risks Montana Major US Shale Plays Thrust Belt Williston Basin Cody Gammon Hilliard- Appalachian Michigan Basin Greater Baxter- Basin Antrim Green Mancos River Forest Basin City Basin Devonian (Ohio) Uinta Basin Illinois Marcellus Basin Utica Piceance Mancos Basin Excello- New Hermosa Mulky Cherokee Platform Albany Paradox Basin Pierre Lewis Woodford San Juan Raton Basin Anadarko Fayetteville Basin Chattanooga ArdBasin m Black Warrior Palo Duro Bend ore Ba Arkoma Basin Conasauga sin Basin Basin Floyd- Valley and Ridge Province Barnett Texas- Neal Permian Louisiana- Basin Ft. Worth Mississippi Salt Basin Miles Barnett- Marfa Basin Woodford Basin Haynesville- ± 0 100 200 300 400 Maverick Bossier Sub-Basin Pearsall- Eagle Eagle Ford Ford Rio Grande Embayment Shale Gas Plays Basins Stacked Plays Shallowest / Youngest Deepest / Oldest Hidden Risks of owning minerals in the Haynesville Shale The oil and gas business is inherently risky, and mineral owners in the Haynesville Shale are not immune to the risks that may impact the value of their minerals, including… Competition from other Shale plays If new, emerging shale plays are more pro table than the Haynesville, then well operators will choose to drill in those plays rather than in the Haynesville. (see map above) Low Natural Gas Prices Low natural gas prices will continue to suppress the value of Haynesville Shale minerals (see chart on page 3). Regulations Tighter regulations on hydraulic well fracturing, spurred on by concerns about protecting drinking water, could be devastating for the Haynesville Shale by driving up the cost of the wells, and reducing their productivity. Well Operators Well operators are in total control of the well, including how it is drilled and produced. A poor operator can greatly diminish the value of the minerals. Shrinking Core The Haynesville Shale “Core”, which is the area of better production, has shrunk as operators drill more wells. Acreage outside of the Core is in danger of not being drilled, and leases may be allowed to expire.
  • 5. Louisiana Haynesville Shale Report 5 Maximizing Value “I feel good about my Mineral Ownership, but I’d also like to better understand my options.” Minerals are a valuable, but risky, investment. Landowners can protect the value of their minerals, and enhance their personal situation, by converting their minerals into cash, and by using the proceeds to... (Minerals/Land) Buy stocks and bonds Fund retirement Pay for education Cash Fixed Income Diversification Foreign Equities (Bonds/Pension) more value in their minerals than is prudent, and they should consider Domestic Equities re-balancing their portfolio by converting some of their minerals into (Stocks) other investments. Should I Sell my Mineral Rights? You should consider selling your mineral rights if it makes good nancial Diversified Portfolio sense for you to do so. Get more information on selling your mineral rights at CaddoMinerals.com. You can also learn about selling royalties and get tips on leasing your land. Taking Control Landowners can take control of their minerals by asking themselves, "Do I have plenty of cash with no immediate If "Yes", then the mineral owner can feel good about retaining their minerals. If "No", then the mineral owner should consider selling all, or a portion, of their minerals, and diversifying their portfolio.
  • 6. Louisiana Haynesville Shale Report 6 Keys to Success Keys to a Successful Mineral Transaction A successful mineral sale requires that both the Buyer and Seller are happy with the result. Fair Price Agreeing on a fair price is a critical aspect of a successful mineral transaction. Buyers are typically more knowledgeable and objective about the real value of the minerals, while Sellers o en react to their emotions and to local hearsay about valuation. Good communication is required to bridge the information gap to allow a transaction to occur. Title Establishing that the seller has good title is key to a mineral sale. The Buyer will research the real property and probate public records to establish “record title”. If record title cannot be established, then other steps may be necessary in order to verify ownership and close the transaction. E cient Closing Once a sales price has been agreed to, the Buyer should move quickly to complete the title review process and close the transaction. The payment should be in the form of a bank wire or check. Bank dra s o en take longer. Good Faith Dealing It is imperative that both Buyer and Seller deal in good faith in order to complete a successful transaction. CADDO MINERALS Cash for Minerals & Royalty Leasing Assistance No-Hassle Quote a leader in Louisiana’s Phone - Local - 318-490-0427 Haynesville Shale Toll Free - 877-620-7717 Email - info@caddominerals.com Online - www.CaddoMinerals.com How Caddo Minerals Can Help You Minerals and Royalty Buyer Caddo Minerals is an active buyer of minerals and royalties, focusing on the Haynesville Shale. Leasing Caddo Minerals can assist landowners in getting their land leased. Knowledge and Expertise Our professionals are experts and knowledgeable about oil and gas minerals and royalties in the Haynesville Shale. Because of our deep knowledge about the minerals market, we are able to pay top dollar. Customer Service We are committed to serving our customers with the professionalism and respect that they deserve. We move quickly, and we “go the extra mile” for our customers.
  • 7. Louisiana Haynesville Shale Report 7 Questions & Answers Common Questions about Minerals & Royalty What are minerals? Minerals are everything below the surface of the land, including oil, gas, and other hard minerals. Minerals do not include subsurface well water. What is royalty? Royalty is the share of revenue that comes to the landowner from the sale of oil and gas produced from under their land or Unit. The royalty percentage is set out in the oil and gas lease. Can minerals and royalty be separated from the land? Yes, a landowner can sell their minerals or royalty while retaining the surface of the land. Can a portion of the minerals or royalty be sold? Yes, a landowner can sell any portion (eg ¼ or ½) of their minerals or royalty, and retain what they do not sell. What about inherited property that is shared with other family members? This is very common, and any family member can sell their minerals or royalty without having any e ect on the other family members. What is a Net Mineral Acre? The formula for Net Mineral Acre is ownership interest times tract size. For example, if 2 brothers each own a 1/2 interest in a 2 Acre tract, then each brother would own 1 Net Mineral Acre. What about Un-leased Land? Minerals and royalty have value, and can be sold, whether the land is leased or un-leased. What is a Haynesville Shale Unit? In Louisiana, Haynesville Shale wells are assigned to a 640 Acre Unit, and revenue is allocated to each landowner based on their ownership in the Unit and their royalty percentage. Assistance in Leasing The leasing boom is over in the Haynesville Shale, and oil companies are going to allow many leases to expire over the coming year. Having an active lease is essential for the Landowner to maximize value from his minerals. Identifying the best oil company to pick up the open lease, and negotiating favorable terms for the lease, requires extensive expertise and market knowledge. We Can Help Caddo Minerals can help you get your minerals leased. We have Have you considered the benefits of years of experience dealing with Oil and Gas companies, and have been successful in getting the best deal for our clients. Monetizing your Minerals? Talk to Caddo Minerals Contact Us Answers Fast Closing (318) 490-0427 If you decide to go at it alone, Caddo is more than happy to share a friendly conversation and lend you advice on leasing your Lump Sum Payment info@CaddoMinerals.com property. We’re all in this together! Local and Trustworthy www.CaddoMinerals.com