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Pay TV’s Uncertain Future Vince Vittore Dmitriy Molchanov   August 31, 2010
Agenda Business and Strategic Issues Radical Redesign of the Home and Services Key Takeaways and Q&A
[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Pay TV Market Moving Rapidly to Digital
The Wallet Still Rules Decision-Making Base: 562 What could convince you to switch from your primary pay TV provider in the next year?
Competition Coming from All Sides Content Owners Hulu, NFL, MLB,  NBA, NHL Alternatives PlayStation Network, Xbox, Google TV, Retail STBs, iPad Traditional Competition  MSO, IPTV, DBS Cloud-Based Content Netflix, CinemaNow Pay TV Operator
Cord-Cutting: Myth or Reality? ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Poll – Cord-Cutting: Myth or Reality? ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Cord-Cutting Attitudes Bases: 5,306 in 2009; 1,069 in 2010
Economics Will Be the Biggest Factor in Cord-Cutting ,[object Object]
Pay TV ,[object Object],How do you expect to reduce the cost of your subscription TV service? (Please select all that apply.) (n=206)
Video Game Consoles Challenge the STB Applications Interactive Video Social Networking Information Streaming Multimedia Exclusive Content Sony has led the pack in bringing exclusive content to the game console world with its own reality show, “The Tester,” which airs this winter, and with exclusive content from Marvel for comic book fans. Targeted Advertising Microsoft’s Advertising Business Group has partnered with Nielsen to begin researching ad placement through Xbox LIVE. Honda and Sprint have invested $1 million in advertising opportunities. 3-Screen Both Microsoft and Sony are leveraging their consoles’ well-developed online communities to bring their content outside the living room with PSN and Zune Video. Cloud
Regulatory Concerns ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Agenda Business and Strategic Issues Radical Redesign of the Home and Services Key Takeaways and Q&A
Proliferation of Household Devices n=5,804 Percentage of households with at least one of the following devices:
Watching Video Frequency Base: People who own the device (Asked in Wave 1)
These Trends Mean Three Things ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Familiarity and Convenience Are Highly Desired
TV Takes on More Responsibility Applications Interactive Video Social Networking Information Targeted Advertising Home Monitoring Videoconferencing Streaming Multimedia Distance Learning Network Management Home Health Care 2010 2015 Services Applications
Smartphones Get Even Smarter Mobile Devices Will Interact with Home Networks Home Network 2010 Remote DVR Place-shifting 2015+ Home Network Media Sharing In-Home Input Devices Remote Home Monitoring Remote Elderly Care Both AT&T and Verizon are leveraging smartphones and tablets to control home devices Alcatel-Lucent TeleHealth Manager has been cleared by FDA QCOM’s Skifta application allows users to share their media through their phone when on a friend’s LAN FrontPoint security and Alarm.com applications monitor home security systems
Devices Move Into the Cloud Gaming OnLive and Playcast experiment with Cloud Gaming: 1 Mbps for 640 x 480 resolution. Personal Media Ultraviolet creates new open standard for digital lockers backed by Warner and Microsoft. Disney also pushing “KeyChest.” Streaming Multimedia Brick-and-mortar retailers entering digital distribution: Walmart acquires VUDU, Barnes and Noble invests $140 million in e-book distribution. Cloud
Applications Moving from Passive to Interactive Customer Attractiveness Interactivity HIGH LOW HIGH Standard Def VoD UGC on TV Social Networks Web on TV Catch-Up TV Interactive TV Content DVR Advanced EPGs Exclusive Content 3-D TV Application Stores NPVR T-Commerce High Def
App Store for the TV? Consumer pays  for app via iTunes Apple takes 30%  of the revenue Apple sends 70% to developer  on a monthly basis In the iPhone world In the video world Consumer Content Owner Rights  Holder App  Developer Operator Consumer Talent Sports  Leagues
3-D TV Wheel Has Begun Turning ,[object Object],[object Object],TV Sales   3-D Content Peripheral Hardware Sales Consumer Demand ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
How HDTV Content Is Viewed Base: People with an HDTV set at home; asked in Wave 4
Agenda Business and Strategic Issues Radical Redesign of the Home and Services Key Takeaways and Q&A
Key Take-Aways ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Q&A Vince Vittore, Principal Analyst Service Delivery Architecture, Broadband, Regulation Blog:  http://blogs.yankeegroup.com/author/vvittore/ Twitter:  @vvittore Recent research:  “ A Tale of Two IPTV Telcos, Revisited ” &   “ Service Providers Put Interactive TV Advertising to the Test ” Dmitriy Molchanov, Analyst Access Devices, Converged Consumer Applications   Blog:  http://blogs.yankeegroup.com/author/dmolchanov/ Recent research:  “ Mobile  Broadband's  Next Big Push ” & “ 2010 Anywhere Device Index: Identifying the Next Game-Changer ”
www.yankeegroup.com Read analyst blogs at  blogs.yankeegroup.com Watch analyst videos at youtube.com/yankeegroup   Follow us on Twitter:  @YankeeGroup   Fan Yankee Group  at facebook.com Upcoming Yankee Group webinar: Promises and Perils of Tokenization Monday, Sept. 27, 2010 | 11 a.m. ET Register at www.yankeegroup.com Thank You

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Paid TV's Uncertain Future

  • 1. Pay TV’s Uncertain Future Vince Vittore Dmitriy Molchanov August 31, 2010
  • 2. Agenda Business and Strategic Issues Radical Redesign of the Home and Services Key Takeaways and Q&A
  • 3.
  • 4. The Wallet Still Rules Decision-Making Base: 562 What could convince you to switch from your primary pay TV provider in the next year?
  • 5. Competition Coming from All Sides Content Owners Hulu, NFL, MLB, NBA, NHL Alternatives PlayStation Network, Xbox, Google TV, Retail STBs, iPad Traditional Competition MSO, IPTV, DBS Cloud-Based Content Netflix, CinemaNow Pay TV Operator
  • 6.
  • 7.
  • 8. Cord-Cutting Attitudes Bases: 5,306 in 2009; 1,069 in 2010
  • 9.
  • 10.
  • 11. Video Game Consoles Challenge the STB Applications Interactive Video Social Networking Information Streaming Multimedia Exclusive Content Sony has led the pack in bringing exclusive content to the game console world with its own reality show, “The Tester,” which airs this winter, and with exclusive content from Marvel for comic book fans. Targeted Advertising Microsoft’s Advertising Business Group has partnered with Nielsen to begin researching ad placement through Xbox LIVE. Honda and Sprint have invested $1 million in advertising opportunities. 3-Screen Both Microsoft and Sony are leveraging their consoles’ well-developed online communities to bring their content outside the living room with PSN and Zune Video. Cloud
  • 12.
  • 13. Agenda Business and Strategic Issues Radical Redesign of the Home and Services Key Takeaways and Q&A
  • 14. Proliferation of Household Devices n=5,804 Percentage of households with at least one of the following devices:
  • 15. Watching Video Frequency Base: People who own the device (Asked in Wave 1)
  • 16.
  • 17. Familiarity and Convenience Are Highly Desired
  • 18. TV Takes on More Responsibility Applications Interactive Video Social Networking Information Targeted Advertising Home Monitoring Videoconferencing Streaming Multimedia Distance Learning Network Management Home Health Care 2010 2015 Services Applications
  • 19. Smartphones Get Even Smarter Mobile Devices Will Interact with Home Networks Home Network 2010 Remote DVR Place-shifting 2015+ Home Network Media Sharing In-Home Input Devices Remote Home Monitoring Remote Elderly Care Both AT&T and Verizon are leveraging smartphones and tablets to control home devices Alcatel-Lucent TeleHealth Manager has been cleared by FDA QCOM’s Skifta application allows users to share their media through their phone when on a friend’s LAN FrontPoint security and Alarm.com applications monitor home security systems
  • 20. Devices Move Into the Cloud Gaming OnLive and Playcast experiment with Cloud Gaming: 1 Mbps for 640 x 480 resolution. Personal Media Ultraviolet creates new open standard for digital lockers backed by Warner and Microsoft. Disney also pushing “KeyChest.” Streaming Multimedia Brick-and-mortar retailers entering digital distribution: Walmart acquires VUDU, Barnes and Noble invests $140 million in e-book distribution. Cloud
  • 21. Applications Moving from Passive to Interactive Customer Attractiveness Interactivity HIGH LOW HIGH Standard Def VoD UGC on TV Social Networks Web on TV Catch-Up TV Interactive TV Content DVR Advanced EPGs Exclusive Content 3-D TV Application Stores NPVR T-Commerce High Def
  • 22. App Store for the TV? Consumer pays for app via iTunes Apple takes 30% of the revenue Apple sends 70% to developer on a monthly basis In the iPhone world In the video world Consumer Content Owner Rights Holder App Developer Operator Consumer Talent Sports Leagues
  • 23.
  • 24. How HDTV Content Is Viewed Base: People with an HDTV set at home; asked in Wave 4
  • 25. Agenda Business and Strategic Issues Radical Redesign of the Home and Services Key Takeaways and Q&A
  • 26.
  • 27. Q&A Vince Vittore, Principal Analyst Service Delivery Architecture, Broadband, Regulation Blog: http://blogs.yankeegroup.com/author/vvittore/ Twitter: @vvittore Recent research: “ A Tale of Two IPTV Telcos, Revisited ” & “ Service Providers Put Interactive TV Advertising to the Test ” Dmitriy Molchanov, Analyst Access Devices, Converged Consumer Applications Blog: http://blogs.yankeegroup.com/author/dmolchanov/ Recent research: “ Mobile Broadband's Next Big Push ” & “ 2010 Anywhere Device Index: Identifying the Next Game-Changer ”
  • 28. www.yankeegroup.com Read analyst blogs at blogs.yankeegroup.com Watch analyst videos at youtube.com/yankeegroup Follow us on Twitter: @YankeeGroup Fan Yankee Group at facebook.com Upcoming Yankee Group webinar: Promises and Perils of Tokenization Monday, Sept. 27, 2010 | 11 a.m. ET Register at www.yankeegroup.com Thank You