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Valuation of major Japanese social networking sites GREE, DeNA and mixi
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Shin-Ichiro Yano
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2010年2月27日 第9回XBRL勉強会 はやしさん発表資料。代理投稿です。
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Valuation of major Japanese social networking sites GREE, DeNA and mixi
1.
SNS3 (GREE, DeNA,mixi) 2010/02/17
1
2.
GREE,DeNA,mixi
,IR 2
3.
Agenda ✤
DCF Overview ✤ SNS3 ✤ ✤ Valuation ✤ QA 3
4.
DCF
Overview ✤ FCF ✤ ✤ ✤ etc ✤ etc 4
5.
God is no
where. ( ) 5
6.
God is no
where. ( ) God is now here. ( ) 5
7.
GREE,DeNA,mixi 3
GREE DeNA mixi 2004 12 1999 3 1999 6 2004 2 2006 12 ( ) 2004 2 139 376 120 83 158 37 2,036 3,217 822 2008 12 2005 2 2006 8 / 1 102 574 226 6
8.
GREE,DeNA,mixi 3
GREE 10 DeNA 10 mixi 7 ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) 7
9.
GREE,DeNA,mixi 3
GREE DeNA mixi 59.79% 16.87% 59.10% 7.14% 14.84% 2.05% 7.14% 5.73% 3.98% 2.04% 2.65% 4.60% 1.65% 2.03% 4.19% 1.47% 1.78% 1.35% 3.67% 0.97% 1.20% 3.58% 1.04% 0.97% 3.20% 0.78% 0.95% 0.52% 2.97% 2.94% 0.52% 87.47% 62.59% 71.72% 8
10.
GREE
9
11.
GREE
SNS( ) + ( ) 10
12.
GREE
2005/06 2006/06 2007/06 2008/06 2009/06 CAGR ( ) ( ) ( ) CF( ) CF( ) FCF( ) CF( ) 11
13.
#%&&
$' !"" %!!"" '!!"" (!!"" )!!"" $*!!!"" $*%!!"" $*'!!"" $*(!!"" $*)!!"" %!!(+!$" GREE GREE %!!(+!&" • • • %!!(+!#" %!!(+!," %!!(+!-" %!!(+$$" %!!,+!$" PV %!!,+!&" %!!,+!#" ()** %!!,+!," %!!,+!-" PV %!!,+$$" ./ %!!)+!$" %!!)+!&" !" 0" %!!)+!#" %!!)+!," %!!)+!-" %!!)+$$" ./ .1 %!!-+!$" %!!-+!&" %!!-+!#" %!!-+!," %!!-+!-" %!!-+$$" !" #!" $!!" $#!" %!!" %#!" &!!" !" # !"$ 12
14.
GREE GREE
!(#$ !"#$ !% !"#$ %#$ !%)!* %&#$ '(#$ &"#$ 20 77 13
15.
GREE
*$!!!"" )$!!!"" $% ($!!!"" !"## '$!!!"" &$!!!"" %$!!!"" #$!!!"" !"" %!!+,#" %!!+,%" %!!+,&" %!!+,'" %!!-,#" %!!-,%" %!!-,&" %!!-,'" %!#!,#" %!#!,%" 14
16.
GREE
15
17.
GREE ✤
SNS ✤ 2008 ✤ PV ✤ 20 ✤ ( ) 16
18.
DeNA
17
19.
DeNA
Web SNS+ 18
20.
DeNA
19
21.
DeNA
-./ '#$!!!$!!!"" '!$!!!$!!!"" &#$!!!$!!!"" 80 "# &!$!!!$!!!"" 95 ! %#$!!!$!!!"" %!$!!!$!!!"" #$!!!$!!!"" !"" &!!#(!)" &!!)(!)" &!!*(!)" &!!+(!)" &!!,(!)" 20
22.
DeNA
PV !" -." %$*!!"" #!$!!!"" %$)!!"" (#$!!!"" %$(!!"" (!$!!!"" '#$!!!"" %$&!!"" PV !"$ $% '!$!!!"" %$!!!"" &#$!!!"" # !"# *!!"" &!$!!!"" )!!"" %#$!!!"" (!!"" %!$!!!"" &!!"" #$!!!"" !"" !"" !) !& !) !( !) !) !) !* !) %! !) %& !+ !& !+ !( !+ !) !+ !* !+ %! !+ %& !* !& !* !( !* !) !* !* !* %! !* %& !, !& !, !( !, !) !, !* !, %! !, %& 21
23.
DeNA
*!!!" )!!!" (!!!" '!!!" $ !"## &!!!" %!!!" $!!!" #!!!" !" $!!)+#" $!!)+$" $!!)+%" $!!)+&" $!!*+#" $!!*+$" $!!*+%" $!!*+&" $!!,+#" $!!,+$" $!!,+%" 22
24.
DeNA $%
!)% !+!% )(++% !!% '!% '!% !"## &$!"% &"+)% )+*% &)*(% !")#% &"*'% &!++% !+&+% +'$% !$$!% !!)!% !*(&% !)$*% !!#+% !&"&% '"+% !+($% +&"% !')#% !"#$% !&!'% !&(#% !!)*% !"&'% !!&(% $)'% &""+,$% &""#,!% &""#,&% &""#,)% &""#,$% &""',!% &""',&% &""',)% 23
25.
DeNA
( ) &" #" !" &""-' ,"-' +"-' $"-' ."-' )"-' ("-' !"-' #"-' &"-' "-' !"" ("" )"" &*""" &*)"" #""$%"#%"&' #""$%!%&"' #""$%)%&"' #""+%(%&"' #"",%,%&(' !" +-' &#-' &!-' #"-' #)-' #" !"-' !#-' !(-' ("-' (!-' &" .#-' ).-' )!-' ("-' !&-' 24
26.
DeNA ✤
2009 10 4 etc ✤ 3−4 PV (200 →450 ) ✤ ✤ (1 ) 25
27.
DeNA ✤
( ) ✤ ( ) ✤ PV ✤ ✤ ✤ 26
28.
mixi
27
29.
mixi •mixi(
(mixi )) •Find Job!( ) 28
30.
mixi
29
31.
mixi
-./. -./. (#$!!!"" (!$!!!"" $ '$!!!"" !"## &$!!!"" mixi 86 %$!!!"" #$!!!"" !"" #!!)*!+" #!!'*!+" #!!,*!+" -./. +$%&+"" '$(&+"" (!$%+("" -./. %(&"" 0,%"" ))!"" ($+&'"" ($#,0"" '0!"" 30
32.
mixi mixi
PV &'(' !" -."/-01" -."/2345671" %,!!!"" %#!" $,*!!"" mixi $,&!!"" %!!" $,+!!"" PV $ $,%!!"" $#!" !"# !"$% $,!!!"" # *!!"" $!!" &!!"" +!!"" #!" %!!"" !"" !" !$ !' !# !( !) $$ !$ !' !# !( !) $$ !$ !' !# !( !) $$ !$ !' !# !( !) $$ !& !& !& !& !& !& !( !( !( !( !( !( !* !* !* !* !* !* !) !) !) !) !) !) 31
33.
mixi )!"!#$ (%"!#$
!"#$%& (!"!#$ '(#)%& '%"!#$ '!"!#$ &%"!#$ &!"!#$ %"!#$ !"!#$ &%*&+$&,*&-$'!*')$'%*'-$(!*()$)%*(-$)!*))$)%*)-$ %!*$ !"#"$% "!#"$% 20 90% 32
34.
mixi mixi •2009 8
SAP 460 PC:780, Mobile:330 • ( (449 ) (342 ) (217 DeNA )) • PV ( 159 → 227 ) •SAP PV (mixi2 SAP8 ) SAP mixi 33
35.
mixi ✤
mixi ✤ PC PV Mobile PV ✤ mixi Mobile PV ✤ 90 ✤ mixi ✤ SAP 34
36.
GREE
DeNA mixi , ( ) GREE Connect mixi 2010 1 2010 2009 8 PV ,PC 35
37.
:'/-()
) *+,+ 56'-%() 0123 54'4;() 45'54() 2"7839 ) *+,+ %/'&.() 0123 4%'%/() 4.'4() *+,+ -/'.() 0123 5&'6() &;';.( ) *+,+ 4-'46( 0123 %5'-4() !"#$ %&'&() %4'6%) *+,+ -.'/() *+,+ :'.4 0123 45'6() 0123 &':&) -'5/ 4'6%) *+,+ 6';- *+,+ .'5: 0123 -'5/) 0123 :'.&) 36
38.
!
" !% !"" #!!"" $!!"" %!!"" &!!"" '(!!!"" '(#!!"" '($!!"" '(%!!"" '(&!!"" #(!!!"" !# !% !$ !% !% !% !& !% !% '! •GREE '# !) !# !) •DeNA mixi !$ !) !% +,--" !) !& !) '! !) '# !& ./01" !# !& !$ !& !% !& 2343" !& !& '! !& '# !* !# !* !$ !* !% !* !& !* '! !* '# 37
39.
!"
-./.0123# -./.0 45660 3# 45660123# (!!"!## '$!"!## •2009 GREE (CM ) '!!"!## • mixi &$!"!## • GREE !"$% &!!"!## # !" %$!"!## %!!"!## $!"!## !"!## !& !( !) !* %! %& !& !( !) !* %! %& !& !( !) !* %! %& !& !( !) !* %! %& !) !) !) !) !) !) !+ !+ !+ !+ !+ !+ !* !* !* !* !* !* !, !, !, !, !, !, 38
40.
39
41.
DCF
40
42.
DCF
↓ ( ) 10 15 40
43.
2008
9,091 ( 75.3 13 39 95% 75.4% 20 40 90% ↓ 41
44.
2008
6,983 913 ( 147 ) 1,610 ( 114.0 170 ( 200%) 42
45.
(
) GREE 15%( 15% 0 ) 3 4 2000 3000 85 5 2012 ,PV 0.5% 43
46.
(
) DeNA 15%( 15% 0 ) 2−3 30 2 5 2012 ,PV 0.5% 44
47.
(
) mixi 15%( 15% 0 ) mixi mixi SAP 5 2012 ,PV 0.5% 45
48.
(2/12
) GREE 3,561 4,840 -26% DeNA 374,436 657,000 -54% mixi 210,981 517,000 -59% 46
49.
→
→ → 66 ” ” (DeNA,mixi) M&A??? → 47
50.
↓ IR
( ) GREE > DeNA > mixi GREE 48
51.
XBRL
DB ( ) 49
52.
Q&A http://valuation-note.blogspot.com/
50
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