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International Renaissance Foundation
in cooperation with the Open Society Foundations




European Integration Index
for Eastern Partnership Countries


Pilot edition

November 2011
2




    This report was written by:

Iryna Solonenko (editor)          We would like to thank expert team leaders Boris Navasardian, Leila Aliyeva, Dzianis Melyantsou,
Martin Brusis                     Tamara Pataraia, Leonid Litra, Kateryna Shynkaruk, our colleagues from OSF Viorel Ursu, Paweł
Veronika Movchan                  Bagiński, Tetyana Kukharenko, and Inna Pidluska, and all the experts from the EaP countries
Iryna Sushko                      (listed at the end of the report) for their input. We also thank Richard Youngs, Natalia Shapovalova,
Natalia Sysenko                   Norman Spengler, Helmut Anheier, and Jeff Lovitt for their input at different stages of this project.
Yaryna Borenko                    We also acknowledge the kind assistance of the EU Delegation to Ukraine: special thanks go to
Anna Golubovska-Onisimova         David Stulik, Fabiola di Clemente, Dimitri Gorchakov, Stefanie Harter, Richard Jones, Oksana
Victoria Gumeniuk                 Popruga, Andriy Spivak, and Volodymyr Kondrachuk. And we greatly appreciated the feedback
Dmytro Naumenko                   from numerous experts from the EU and EaP countries, including Kataryna Wolczuk, Katar-
                                  zyna Pelczynska-Nalecz, Kristi Raik, Oleksandr Duleba, Laure Delcour, Irene Hahn, Taras Kachka,
                                  Olga Sauliak, Susann Worschech, Olena Pavlenko, and Volodymyr Kuzka, as well as the partici-
                                  pants of the roundtables in Kyiv in January and May 2011, and Brussels in October 2011.

                                  Language editing: Lidia Wolanskyj
                                  Design and layout: Denis Barbeskumpe
3




Preface

   The European Integration Index for             The Index was developed by indepen-
Eastern Partnership Countries will track       dent civil society experts who advocate
the progress of Eastern Partnership (EaP)      reforms related to European integra-
countries—Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus,        tion. It is prepared by the International
Georgia, Moldova, and Ukraine—on an            Renaissance Foundation (IRF) in partner-
annual basis. It provides a nuanced cross-     ship with the Open Society Foundations
country and cross-sector picture that is       (OSF) and experts from think-tanks and
comparative.                                   university institutions in EaP countries
   The Index is a monitoring tool that is      and the EU. The project is funded by
also intended to assist EU institutions in     the IRF’s European Programme and the
applying the ‘more for more’/‘less for less’   EastEast: Partnership Beyond Borders
principle, announced by the EU in May          Programme of the OSF.
2011. Although the EU and independent             This is a pilot edition of the European
civil society initiatives provide numerous     Integration Index, so we welcome feedback
regular assessments of the progress of EaP     on the composition and methodo-logy of
countries in European integration, few of      the Index in order to work to improve this
these assessments have attempted to place      product. The first full-fledged edition of
the countries in a comparative perspective.    the Index will be published in May 2012
This is what the Index primarily attempts      and will then become an annual project.
to do.
4




Inside the Index:
What we look at and how we
approach it
What?
    The Index interprets “progress in Eu-         dynamic depends more on facilitative
ropean integration” as the combination of         political decisions and structures. Such a
two separate yet interdependent processes:        concept of European integration has led
increased linkages between each of the            us to identify three dimensions for evalu-
EaP countries and the European Union;             ation:
and greater approximation between those               1. Linkage: growing political, econom-
countries’ institutions, legislation and          ic and social ties between each of the six
practices and those of the EU. While the          EaP countries and the EU;
first process reflects the growth of political,       2. Approximation: structures and in-
economic and societal interdependencies           stitutions in EaP countries converging
between EaP countries and the EU, the             towards EU standards and in line with
second process shows the degree to which          EU requirements;
each EaP country adopts institutions and              3. Management: evolving manage-
policies typical of EU member states and          ment structures for European integration
required of EaP countries by the EU.              in EaP countries.
    The Index assumes that increased link-           These dimensions are subdivided
ages and greater approximation mutually           into the SECTIONS , Categories and
reinforce each other. However, this virtu-        Subcategories shown in Table 1.
ous circle is not fully self-enforcing. Its
5



Table 1.                                                                                                                                  5. FREEDOM, SECURITY AND JUSTICE
                                                                                                                                             5.1 Visa dialogue
                                                                                                                                             5.2 Migration and asylum
Linkage Dimension                                                    Approximation Dimension                                                 5.3 Border management
                                                                                                                                             5.4 Security
1. POLITICAL DIALOGUE                                                1. DEMOCRACY                                                                   5.4.1 Organized crime
    1.1 Bilateral institutions                                          1.1 Elections (national legislature)                                        5.4.2 Money laundering, including financing of terrorism
    1.2 Multilateral institutions and Eastern Partnership                      1.1.1 Fair electoral campaign                                        5.4.3 Human Trafficking
   1.3 CFSP/ESDP Cooperation                                                   1.1.2 Legal framework and its implementation                         5.4.4 Drugs
                                                                               1.1.3 Organization of elections                                      5.4.5 Customs (law enforcement aspects)
2. TRADE AND ECONOMIC INTEGRATION                                       1.2 Robust political competition                                     5.5 Judiciary
   2.1 Trade flows                                                      1.3 Executive accountability to legislature                                 5.5.1 Detention and imprisonment
   2.2 Trade Barriers                                                          1.3.1 Legislature’s influence over executive
                                                                               1.3.2 Legislature’s institutional autonomy                 6. ENERGY and TRANSPORT
3. FREEDOM, SECURITY AND JUSTICE                                               1.3.3 Legislature’s specific powers                           6.1 Energy: legislation convergence
   3.1 Visa dialogue                                                           1.3.4 Legislature’s institutional capacity                           6.1.1 Energy community
   3.2 Migration and asylum                                                    1.3.5 Conditions for opposition                                      6.1.2 EU “Energy packages” implementation
   3.3 Border management                                                1.4 Media freedom                                                    6.2 Energy policy
   3.4 Security                                                         1.5 Association and assembly rights                                         6.2.1 Institutional framework of energy market
          3.4.1 Organized crime                                                                                                                     6.2.2 Energy efficiency
          3.4.2 Money laundering, including financing of terrorism   2. RULE OF LAW                                                          6.3 Transport regulatory policy
          3.4.3 Drugs                                                   2.1 Independent, professional judiciary
   3.5. Judiciary                                                              2.1.1 Appointment, promotion and dismissal                 7. ENVIRONMENT
          3.5.1 Judicial cooperation: criminal and civil matters               2.1.2 Institutional independence                              7.1 Environmental policy
          3.5.2 Detention and imprisonment                                     2.1.3 Judicial powers                                         7.2 Resources efficiency
                                                                               2.1.4 Accountability and transparency                         7.3 Climate change
4. ENERGY and TRANSPORT                                                 2.2 Protection of civil liberties                                    7.4 Pressure to/ state of environment
   4.1 Energy trade                                                     2.3 Equal opportunities
   4.2 Integration with Trans-European Networks                                                                                           8. EDUCATION and PEOPLE-TO-PEOPLE
                                                                     3. GOVERNANCE QUALITY                                                   8.1 Bologna principles implementation
5. EDUCATION and PEOPLE-TO-PEOPLE                                       3.1 Control of Corruption                                            8.2 Policy on culture, youth, Information society, media,
   5.1 Mobility, including academic and students mobility               3.2 Impartial, professional public administration                        audiovisual policies
   5.2 Participation in EU programmes and agencies                             3.2.1 Legal framework of civil service management
                                                                               3.2.2 Institutional framework
6. ASSISTANCE                                                                  3.2.3 Employment and remuneration
   6.1 European Commission Development Aid                                     3.2.4 Recruitment, promotion and disciplinary procedures   Management Dimension
   6.2 European Neighbourhood and Partnership Instrument                3.3 Policy formulation and coordination
         6.2.1 National                                                 3.4 Budget preparation and implementation                         1. COORDINATION MECHANISM
         6.2.2 ENPI East regional/ Interregional                        3.5 Internal and external auditing
   6.3 Global and thematic instruments                                  3.6 Public procurement                                            2. LEGAL APPROXIMATION MECHANISM
   6.4 European financial institutions
   6.5 Special technical assistance                                  4. MARKET ECONOMY                                                    3. PARTICIPATION OF CIVIL SOCIETY

                                                                                                                                          4. MANAGEMENT OF EU ASSISTANCE
6



    All categories and subcategories are          thorities and EU institutions. This was            and “hard” coding and aggregation prac-        coordinators and experts, requesting them
further broken down into items that are           designed to obtain a more differentiated,          tices that suggest a degree of precision not   (1) to clarify their own assessments where
listed in full on the Project’s website1. These   first-hand comparative assessment that             matched by the more complex underlying         necessary and (2) to review the codings by
items consist of questions for experts and        would make it possible to pinpoint the             reality and their verbal representation in     comparing them with codings and assess-
quantitative indicators from public data          strengths and weaknesses of EaP coun-              country reports. The expert survey un-         ments made for the other countries. Ex-
sources.                                          tries.                                             derlying the Index therefore avoids broad      perts who disagreed with the evaluation of
    The structure of the Linkage and Ap-              The Management dimension looks at              opinion questions, and instead tries to ver-   their country were requested to communi-
proximation dimensions reflects the               institutional structures for European in-          ify precise and detailed facts. Drawing on     cate and explain their disagreement to the
multi-level and multi-sectoral nature of          tegration coordination and management              existing cross-national studies1, we have      core team. Finally, the core team reviewed
European integration. It also reflects the        on the ground. While the EU has no spe-            adapted the questions from these sur-          and adapted its scores in the light of this
structure of bilateral Action Plans/Asso-         cific requirements or blueprints as to how         veys to our set of countries and our focus     expert feedback. This iterative evaluation
ciation Agenda between the EU and EaP             European integration policies should be            of measurement. Most survey questions          was intended to facilitate a mutual under-
countries, and the EU’s annual Progress           managed, we believe that this dimension            asked for a ‘Yes’ or ‘No’ (Y/N) response to    standing among experts as well as between
Reports. Since many items in these di-            reflects the level of commitment to Euro-          induce experts to take a clear position and    experts and coders, in order to improve the
mensions have not been compared sys-              pean integration and the capacity to deal          to minimize misclassification. All ques-       reliability and validity of the assessments.
tematically in existing surveys, we have          with the growing EU-related agenda in              tions invited experts to explain and thus         As a rule, all Y/N questions for coun-
asked various local experts to provide their      each EaP country.                                  to contextualize their response. In addi-      try experts were coded 1 = yes or positive
assessments and information.                                                                         tion, experts were requested to substanti-     with regard to European integration and
    The Approximation dimension also                                                                 ate their assessment by listing sources.       0 = no or negative with regard to Euro-
seeks to assess how closely institutions          How?                                                  The survey was implemented in four          pean integration and labelled “1-0”. If
and policies in EaP countries resemble                                                               steps. First, the country coordinators se-     the expert comments and the correspon-
those typical of EU member states. The                 How can the European Integration In-          lected and commissioned local experts,         dence with experts suggested intermediate
sections on democracy, rule of law and             dex achieve a valid and reliable measure-         asking them to evaluate the situation in       scores, such assessments were coded as 0.5
market economy not only constitute core            ment of its items? The Index combines             their country on the basis of the question-    scores and labelled “calibration.” For items
conditions that the EU imposes on coun-            indicators from existing sources with first-      naire. Different parts of the questionnaire    requiring numerical data, that is, quan-
tries interested in closer relations with          hand empirical information gathered by            were assigned to related sectoral experts.     titative indicators, the source data was
it—they are also uncontested political             local country experts. This general design        Next, the country coordinators returned        standardized through a linear transforma-
aims and legitimizing general principles           is intended to use the best existing knowl-       the responses to the core survey team at       tion, using information about distances
in all EaP countries. These sections partly        edge and to improve this body of knowl-           IRF, which reviewed and coded the re-          between country scores.
use ratings and composite indicators pro-          edge by focused, systematic data collection       sponses to ensure cross-national compa-            To transform source data into scores, it
duced by international agencies and other          that benefits from OSF’s unique embed-            rability. The experts’ comments allowed        was necessary to define the endpoints of
non-governmental organizations (NGOs).             dedness and access to local knowledge in          us to make a preliminary coding (scoring)      the scale. These benchmarks can be based
    For certain areas that were not well           EaP countries.                                    that was sensitive to the specific context     on the empirical distribution or on theo-
covered by existing cross-national com-                However, expert surveys are prone to          that guided individual experts in their as-    retical considerations, on the country cases
parisons, we decided to develop detailed           subjectivity. Many such available surveys         sessments. As a third step, the core survey    examined or on external standards. In the
catalogues of items through consultations          are characterized by a mismatch between           team returned the coded assessments for        case of the Index, this problem is inter-
with experts from civil society, public au-       “soft,” potentially biased expert opinions         all six EaP countries to the local country     twined with the question of the ultimate

    1
        http://www.irf.ua/index.php?option=com_content&view=category&layout=blog&id=273&Itemid=519
7



fate of the Eastern Partnership. Whereas       my” section, benchmarks were defined by
the EU refuses to consider accession as an     the best and worst performing countries
option, yet tends to expect standards simi-    covered by the EBRD Transition Re-
lar to those of the accession process, some    ports. In the “Energy and Transport” and
EaP countries continue to aspire to mem-      “Environment” sections, a mixed approach
bership. In addition to this uncertain des-    was used: both region-specific and exter-
tination, many items raise the problem of      nal benchmarks were used, such as EBRD
determining unambiguous best or worst          Transition Reports’ countries, EU-27
practice benchmarks, in terms of both          average, the largest possible number (i.e.,
theory and empirical identification. Given     the number of existing directives or orga-
these difficulties, we have opted for a mix    nizations EaP countries can join), and so
of empirical and theoretical benchmarks.       on. External empirical benchmarks make
    For items scoring 0-1 or the intermedi-    it possible to focus on gaps or catching-up
ate 0.5, benchmarks were defined theoret-      relative to external standards.
ically by assigning 1 and 0 to the best and        The Index measures the situation in
worst possible performance. In contrast,       EaP countries in June 2011. Thus, the
benchmarks for quantitative indicators         measurement is status-oriented, allowing
were defined empirically: in most cases in     us to compare the positions of individual
both the Linkage and the Approximation         countries to other countries for the dif-
dimensions, we assigned 1 and 0 to the         ferent items. Once the Index is produced
best- and worst-performing EaP coun-           annually, it will enable cross-temporal
try to emphasize the relative position of      assessments of a country’s convergence or
a country among its peers. There were ex-      divergence.
ceptions, however. In the “Market Econo-
8




Key results                                                                                       Ukraine, the country that was once seen as
                                                                                                  the flagship country of the Eastern Part-
                                                                                                  nership, comes only third. Understandably,
                                                                                                                                                   Looking at specific sections in the In-
                                                                                                                                               dex reveals interesting cross-country find-
                                                                                                                                               ings. For instance, although Azerbaijan
at a glance                                                                                       Belarus is the least advanced among EaP
                                                                                                  countries.
                                                                                                                                               has a very low score, coming last, for “Free-
                                                                                                                                               dom, Security and Justice” under Link-
                                                                                                      Interestingly, Moldova demonstrated      age, it is as advanced as Ukraine, second
                                                                                                  the best performance both in Linkage and     best, in this section under Approximation.
    1   The findings of the Index show that        tive, it is no surprise that Moldova, Geor-    Approximation and second best in Man-        Similarly, where “Education and People-
        Moldova is the best performer,             gia and Ukraine, which have long aspired       agement, which supports the assumption       to-People” is concerned, in the Linkage
        coming first in Linkage and Approxi-       to EU membership, are doing better than        underlying this Index—that increased         dimension Azerbaijan is the second worst,
        mation and second in Management.           Armenia, Azerbaijan and Belarus, which         linkages and approximation mutually          only narrowly better than Belarus, yet it
    2   The second best performer is Georgia,      have never aimed at joining the EU.            reinforce each other. This assumption        shows good result in the Approximation
        coming first in Management, second             Notably, the results for Management        seems to hold true for all EaP countries     dimension. It is not clear what drives
        in Approximation, and third in Linkage.    correlate with the overall ratings of in-      with a few deviations. For instance, al-     domestic Approximation in Azerbaijan
    3   Ukraine is the third best performer,       dividual countries. In other words, the        though Ukraine ranks second in Linkage,      given the limited Linkage in those fields.
        ranking second in Linkage and third        countries that are best performers in gen-     it ranks only third in Approximation and     Armenia shows a similar pattern. It is the
        in Approximation—along with Arme-          eral, Moldova and Georgia, show better         third in Management. This suggests that      worst in Linkage for “Energy and Trans-
        nia—and Management.                        scores for Management. They are followed       Ukraine has not made the best use of its     port,” yet the best in this sector under Ap-
    4    Armenia follows Ukraine, shar-            by Ukraine, Armenia, Azerbaijan and            stronger record and more advanced level      proximation. On the contrary, Ukraine is
        ing third position with Ukraine in         Belarus, in the same order as the overall      of cooperation with the EU compared to       the best in terms of “Trade and Economic
        Approximation, but ranking fourth in       Index rating. If we assume that Manage-        the other countries. By contrast, Armenia    Integration,” yet the second worst—just
        Linkage and Management.                    ment scores mostly reflect the level of in-    performed well in Approximation, despite     above Belarus—when it comes to “Mar-
    5   Azerbaijan follows Armenia, ranking        terest and political will on the part of EaP   being disadvantaged in Linkage (see scat-    ket Economy.”
        fifth in all three dimensions.             countries, while Linkage and Approxima-        ter plot—page 14).                               Another surprise: Belarus did the best
    6   Belarus closes the list, being the worst   tion reflect interest and effort on the part      Also, while Moldova and Ukraine have      in “Environment” under Approximation
        performer in all three dimensions.         of both the EU and EaP countries, this         somewhat lower scores in Approximation       and “Management of EU assistance” un-
                                                   suggests some interdependence between          compared to Linkage, the other four EaP      der Management, possibly due to central-
   The result seems to divide EaP coun-            the degree of commitment of the EU and         countries are doing better in Approxima-     ized management in the country.
tries in two groups: Moldova, Georgia              that of EaP countries. It might also mean      tion than in Linkage. This suggests that,        It is important to note that relatively
and Ukraine, the frontrunners with EU              that, not only European aspirations, but       despite the fact that Armenia, Azerbaijan,   low scores of Ukraine, Belarus and Azer-
membership aspirations; Armenia, Azer-             also political will within each country to     Georgia—who share great geographical         baijan for “Assistance” have to do with the
baijan and Belarus, the laggers who have           reform and benefit from the instruments        distance from the EU—and Belarus—            fact that the Index have attempted to fo-
not indicated interest in joining the EU. It       offered by the EU plays a decisive role. In    which suffers more from great politi-        cus on relative, rather than absolute figures.
seems that EU membership aspirations do            this case, it is no surprise that Moldova      cal distance—are less advantaged where       This approach seems to benefit smaller
determine the degree of Linkage and Ap-            is the frontrunner in the Index, given the     Linkage is concerned, they are catching up   countries: Moldova, Georgia and Arme-
proximation, as well as the Management of          political situation in this country follow-    in Approximation (see scatter plot—page      nia have been leading, although Moldova
European integration. From this perspec-           ing its change of government in 2009.          14).                                         is far ahead of the others.
9


                Moldova                                  Georgia                               Ukraine                               Armenia                            Azerbaijan     Belarus
Linkage




                       0.70                                  0.53                                  0.60                                  0.42                                   0.32    0.19
Approximation




                       0.67                                  0.63                                  0.57                                   0.57                                 0.49     0.37




                      0.88                                   0.92                                  0.68                                   0.32                                 0.28     0.20
Management




                *
                    1 (the full circle) means different things in different parts of the Index. In most cases fuller circle indicated more leading ranks of a country in comparison
                    with other EaP countries or more convergence with best performing transition countries. See page 7 for more detailed explanation.
10


 Linkage
     Moldova   Ukraine   Georgia                         Armenia    Azerbaijan   Belarus


      0.70      0.60      0.53                              0.42      0.32        0.19

                                    Political dialogue
       0.75      0.94      0.56                              0.64      0.50        0.28

                           Trade and Economic integration
       0.74      0.78      0.57                              0.61      0.54        0.10

                            Freedom, Security and Justice
       0.85      0.81      0.47                              0.19      0.08        0.11

                                  Energy and Transport
       0.38      0.34      0.35                             0.09        0.37       0.24

                           Education and People-to-people
       0.64      0.48      0.59                              0.51       0.27       0.26

                                       Assistance
       0.87      0.28      0.62                             0.48        0.15       0.16
11


Approximation
  Moldova   Georgia     Ukraine                         Armenia    Azerbaijan   Belarus


   0.67         0.63     0.57                              0.57      0.49        0.37

                                     Democracy
    0.72         0.54     0.64                              0.47       0.31       0.20

                                     Rule of Law
    0.61         0.63     0.60                              0.51      0.42        0.23

                                 Governance Quality
    0.79         0.71     0.62                              0.74      0.46        0.35

                                  Market Economy
    0.59         0.63     0.45                              0.61      0.55        0.43

                           Freedom, Security and Justice
    0.94         0.67     0.76                              0.47      0.76        0.43

                                 Energy and Transport
    0.46         0.37     0.34                              0.52       0.31       0.16

                                    Environment
    0.60        0.66      0.49                              0.61       0.37       0.67

                          Education and People-to-people
    0.64         0.81     0.68                              0.64       0.77       0.45
12


 Management
     Georgia   Moldova   Ukraine                      Armenia        Azerbaijan   Belarus


      0.92      0.88      0.68                               0.32      0.28        0.2

                              Coordination mechanism
        1         1        0.50                               0.25      0.25         0

                           Legal approximation mechanism
       0.67      0.50      0.77                               0.33       0.17        0

                            Participation of civil society
        1         1        0.75                              0.50         0          0

                           Management of EU assistance
        1         1        0.70                              0.20       0.70        0.80
13


Linkage vs Approximation
 Moldova        Georgia       Ukraine                          Armenia            Azerbaijan      Belarus


  0.70           0.53           0.60                                  0.42             0.32          0.19
                                                                                                     0.37
                                                                     0.57             0.49
                 0.63           0.57
   0.67

     0.88          0.92           0.68                                   0.32          0.28          0.20


                              Trade and Economic integration / Market Economy
  0.74 / 0.59   0.57 / 0.63    0.78 / 0.45                          0.61 / 0.61     0.54 / 0.55   0.10 / 0.43


                                         Freedom, Security and Justice
  0.85 / 0.94   0.47 / 0.67    0.81 / 0.76                          0.19 / 0.47     0.08 / 0.76   0.11 / 0.43


                                             Energy and Transport
  0.38 / 0.46   0.35 / 0.37    0.34 / 0.34                          0.09 / 0.52     0.37 / 0.31   0.24 / 0.16


                                      Education and People-to-people
  0.64 / 0.64   0.59 / 0.81   0.48 / 0.68                           0.51 / 0.64     0.27 / 0.77   0.26 / 0.45
14


 Linkage vs Approximation
                     1




                                                                                               MD
                                                                                GE        0.70 / 0.67
                                                                      0.53 / 0.63
                                                                 AM
                                                            0.42 / 0.57
                                                       AZ
                                                   0.32 / 0.49                       UA
                     0.5                                                         0.60 / 0.57
                                         BY
                                     0.19 / 0.37
                                                                                                               This scatter plot shows the relationship between Linkage and Ap-
                                                                                                            proximation for each country. It shows whether our assumption—that
                                                                                                            increased linkages and approximation mutually reinforce each other—
                                                                                                            holds true.
                                                                                                               The fitted line has been drawn to highlight this relationship. It shows
                                                                                                            the performance of a hypothetical average country in both dimensions.
                                                                                                               Thus, it is evident that Ukraine (the country located furthest away
     Approximation




                                                                                                            from the line) shows the worst result in Approximation relative to the
                                                                                                            depth of its linkages with the EU, while Georgia and Armenia are less
                                                                                                            linked to the EU than Ukraine and have reached comparatively high
                                                                                                            levels of Approximation.
                                                                                                               Moldova and Azerbaijan, the two countries situated closest to the
                                                                                                            line, indicate corresponding levels of Linkage and Approximation.
                     0                                                    0.5                           1
                           Linkage
15




Country                                                                                              Economic Integration,” where it is barely
                                                                                                     ahead of Azerbaijan and Belarus. This
                                                                                                     means that these areas need more atten-
                                                                                                     tion, particularly on the part of the EU,
                                                                                                                                                    domestic performance, as Approximation
                                                                                                                                                    scores suggest.
                                                                                                                                                       Armenia is generally doing worse
                                                                                                                                                    than Moldova, Georgia and Ukraine, but
specific assessment                                                                                  not only Georgia. It is important to note
                                                                                                     that Georgia is lagging behind Armenia
                                                                                                                                                    better than Azerbaijan and Belarus. This
                                                                                                                                                    holds true for such areas as “Freedom, Se-
                                                                                                     in “Political Dialogue” due to the fact that   curity and Justice” for Linkage, and “De-
                                                                                                     Armenia participates in peacekeeping           mocracy” and “Rule of Law”. This also
    Below we present an explanation of the           When it comes to specific sectors, how-         missions with the EU and is thus more          holds true for Management.
 findings of the Index as reflected in coun-     ever, the picture is not so clear. For instance,    advanced in CFSP/ESDP cooperation,                Yet, Armenia has showed relatively
 try scores. We start with the best perform-     Moldova shows high results for “Freedom,            which is a part of “Political Dialogue.”       good results in Linkage “Political Dia-
 ing country on most aspects, Moldova,           Security and Justice” in both Linkage and              Ukraine is the second best performer        logue” and “Trade and Economic Integra-
 and proceed in order until we reach Be-        Approximation, but a high discrepancy be-            in Linkage, third best in Management, and      tion,” leaving Georgia behind; “Education
 larus, the worst performing country.            tween Linkage and Approximation where              Approximation. Ukraine shows the best re-       and People-to-People” and “Assistance”,
    Moldova is the best performer in            “Education and People-to-People” is con-             sults for “Political Dialogue” and “Trade      leaving Ukraine behind.
 Linkage and Approximation and the sec-          cerned: compared to other countries, Mol-           and Economic Integration,” second best            It also has showed relatively good re-
 ond best in Management.                         dova is the best performer for Linkage but          results in “Freedom, Security and Justice”     sults in Approximation, having shared the
    The country is very advanced in “Free-       only fourth best, with Armenia, for Ap-             (both Linkage and Approximation, along         third position with Ukraine. This is due
 dom, Security and Justice” (the best in         proximation.                                        with Azerbaijan) and in “Democracy”.           to high scores in “Governance Quality,”
 both Linkage and Approximation), “En-               Georgia also performs rather well.                 Ukraine lags behind in “Energy and          where it is third after Moldova and Geor-
 ergy and Transport” (the best in Linkage        It is the best in Management, second best           Transport” and “Education and People-          gia, “Market Economy” where it is second
 and second best in Approximation), “Trade       in Approximation after Moldova, and                 to-People” for both Linkage and Ap-            only to Georgia, “Energy and Transport”
 and Economic Integration” (second after         third best in Linkage, after Moldova and            proximation, in “Governance Quality,”          where it is the best performer, and “Envi-
 Ukraine), “Education and People-to-Peo-         Ukraine. Given that Georgia has rela-              “Market Economy,” “Environment”. Poor           ronment” where it is third only to Belarus
 ple” (Linkage) and “Assistance.” It is also     tively low scores in Linkage compared to            performance in terms of “Environment,”         and Georgia.
 the best performer in “Democracy” and           Ukraine and Moldova, geographical prox-             somewhat advanced than Azerbaijan, the            Yet, Armenia significantly lags behind
“Governance Quality” and the second best         imity may be making a difference. Geor-             laggard, has to do with the fact that both     other countries in “Energy and Transport,”
 in “Rule of Law.”                               gia shows the best scores for “Rule of Law,”        Ukraine and Azerbaijan are highly in-          where it is the worst performer for Link-
    In general, Moldova confirms the as-        “Market Economy” and “Education and                  dustrialized countries compared to other       age, and “Freedom, Security and Justice”
 sumption that there is a relationship be-       People-to-People” in Approximation, and             countries in the EaP region.                   and “Education and People-to-People” for
 tween Linkage, Approximation and Man-           the second highest score on “Assistance,”              Although Ukraine had the best perfor-       Approximation.
 agement in the sense that more and deeper       after Moldova, and “Environment,” after             mance in “Trade and Economic Integra-             In “Energy and Transport,” Armenia
 links with the EU correlate with better         Belarus. It seems that Georgia has done             tion,” it showed poor results in “Market       shows surprising results. While it is the
 performance at home (Approximation)             well in the areas where there has been po-          Economy,” leaving only Belarus behind.         least developed among the countries in
 and better Management of European inte-         litical will to reform.                             In general, although Ukraine seems to be       Linkage here, it is the best performer in
 gration. Apparently, political will seems to        Georgia proved less advanced only               doing well in Linkage, it has not benefit-     Approximation.
 be the key to European integration.             in “Political Dialogue” and “Trade and              ed from this to fullest extent to improve
16



        Azerbaijan is the second worst per-           Belarus closed our list, since it shows
     forming country on all three dimensions,      the poorest scores on all three dimensions.
     coming after Belarus. It is ahead of Ar-     “Environment” is the only exception: here,
     menia and Belarus and also Georgia only       Belarus is the best performer of the six
     in “Freedom, Security and Justice” for Ap-    countries. Interestingly, Belarus also has
     proximation. It is the worst performing       the highest score for “Management of
     country in “Freedom, Security and Justice”    EU assistance.” Centralized management
     for Approximation, “Assistance” and “En-      seems to be the factor at play here. No-
     vironment.” Yet, Azerbaijan is the second     tably, the level of EU assistance to Belar-
     best performer in “Energy and Transport”      us, as well as Azerbaijan, is considerably
     for Linkage and “Education and People-        below the level of other EaP countries.
     to-People” for Approximation.
17



Moldova

 0.70              Linkage                0.67           Approximation            0.88            Management



  0.75   Political dialogue               0.72   Democracy                        1      Coordination mechanism



  0.74   Trade and Economic integration   0.61   Rule of Law                      0.50   Legal approximation mechanism



  0.85   Freedom, Security and Justice    0.79   Governance Quality               1      Participation of civil society



  0.38   Energy and Transport             0.59   Market Economy                   1      Management of EU assistance



  0.64   Education and People-to-people   0.94   Freedom, Security and Justice



  0.87   Assistance                       0.46   Energy and Transport



                                          0.60   Environment



                                          0.64   Education and People-to-people
18



 Georgia

     0.53             Linkage                0.63           Approximation            0.92            Management



     0.56   Political dialogue               0.54   Democracy                        1      Coordination mechanism



     0.57   Trade and Economic integration   0.63   Rule of Law                      0.67   Legal approximation mechanism



     0.47   Freedom, Security and Justice    0.71   Governance Quality               1      Participation of civil society



     0.35   Energy and Transport             0.63   Market Economy                   1      Management of EU assistance



     0.59   Education and People-to-people   0.67   Freedom, Security and Justice



     0.62   Assistance                       0.37   Energy and Transport



                                             0.66   Environment



                                             0.81   Education and People-to-people
19



Ukraine

 0.60              Linkage                0.57           Approximation            0.68            Management



  0.94   Political dialogue               0.64   Democracy                        0.50   Coordination mechanism



  0.78   Trade and Economic integration   0.60   Rule of Law                      0.77   Legal approximation mechanism



  0.81   Freedom, Security and Justice    0.62   Governance Quality               0.75   Participation of civil society



  0.34   Energy and Transport             0.45   Market Economy                   0.70   Management of EU assistance



  0.48   Education and People-to-people   0.76   Freedom, Security and Justice



  0.28   Assistance                       0.34   Energy and Transport



                                          0.49   Environment



                                          0.68   Education and People-to-people
20



 Armenia

     0.42              Linkage                0.57           Approximation            0.32            Management



      0.64   Political dialogue               0.47   Democracy                        0.25   Coordination mechanism



      0.61   Trade and Economic integration   0.51   Rule of Law                      0.33   Legal approximation mechanism



      0.19   Freedom, Security and Justice    0.74   Governance Quality               0.50   Participation of civil society



      0.09   Energy and Transport             0.61   Market Economy                   0.20   Management of EU assistance



      0.51   Education and People-to-people   0.47   Freedom, Security and Justice



      0.48   Assistance                       0.52   Energy and Transport



                                              0.61   Environment



                                              0.64   Education and People-to-people
21



Azerbaijan

 0.32              Linkage                0.49           Approximation            0.28            Management



  0.50   Political dialogue               0.31   Democracy                        0.25   Coordination mechanism



  0.54   Trade and Economic integration   0.42   Rule of Law                      0.17   Legal approximation mechanism



  0.08   Freedom, Security and Justice    0.46   Governance Quality               0      Participation of civil society



  0.37   Energy and Transport             0.55   Market Economy                   0.70   Management of EU assistance



  0.27   Education and People-to-people   0.76   Freedom, Security and Justice



  0.15   Assistance                       0.31   Energy and Transport



                                          0.37   Environment



                                          0.77   Education and People-to-people
22



 Belarus

     0.19              Linkage                0.37           Approximation            0.20            Management



      0.28   Political dialogue               0.20   Democracy                        0      Coordination mechanism



      0.10   Trade and Economic integration   0.23   Rule of Law                      0      Legal approximation mechanism



      0.11   Freedom, Security and Justice    0.35   Governance Quality               0      Participation of civil society



      0.24   Energy and Transport             0.43   Market Economy                   0.80   Management of EU assistance



      0.26   Education and People-to-people   0.43   Freedom, Security and Justice



      0.16   Assistance                       0.16   Energy and Transport



                                              0.67   Environment



                                              0.45   Education and People-to-people
23




Sector                                                                                         Democracy
                                                                                                  Where elections are concerned, none
                                                                                               of the six countries fully meets the stan-
                                                                                                                                              and Belarus, but these countries suffer
                                                                                                                                              from monopolized legislatures.
specific assessment                                                                            dards of democratic elections assumed by
                                                                                               the Index. The quality of elections is sig-
                                                                                                                                                 As far as the accountability of lawmak-
                                                                                                                                              ers is concerned, the absence of pluralist
                                                                                               nificantly higher in Moldova and Ukraine       legislatures in Azerbaijan and Belarus
                                                                                               than in Georgia, which, in turn, is clearly    reflects the weak rights and capacities of
Political dialogue                                                                             ahead of Armenia, Azerbaijan and Be-           these legislatures in relation to the ex-
                                                                                               larus. The greatest weakness is the lack of    ecutive branch. The legislature in Belarus
   The intensiveness of political dialogue    here for the lack of official political dia-     fair electoral campaigns, but in Azerbaijan    lacks any rights that might ensure it and
seems to depend significantly on the in-      logue due to the activities of its opposition.   and Belarus electoral laws and the actual      its members some institutional indepen-
stitutional structure envisaged by the            Ukraine is the frontrunner where             organization of elections are also clearly     dence, and its president can even appoint
Partnership and Cooperation Agreement         CFSP/ESDP cooperation is concerned,              deficient. In contrast, Ukraine and Mol-       a share of the members of the Savet Re-
for each EaP country. From this per-          participating in a number of security ar-        dova have reasonably fair and accepted         spubliki at his discretion. Moldova’s Con-
spective, Ukraine, which has the annual       rangements and peacekeeping missions.            electoral norms. Ukraine’s electoral man-      stitution endows its legislature with the
summits and the largest number of sub-        Moldova lags far behind, together with           agement is less effective and its legitimacy   most far-reaching powers to hold the ex-
committees—seven, compared to a maxi-         other EaP countries, in having almost no         more contested than in Moldova. The pat-       ecutive accountable, including the power
mum of four in other EaP countries—           cooperation in this field—although Ar-           tern of deficiencies is different in Armenia   to elect and dismiss the president and the
naturally takes the lead. Since Belarus       menia does participate in a Kosovo mis-          and Georgia, as these two countries orga-      premier. Moldova is also the only EaP
has no PCA with the EU and the official       sion.                                            nize elections comparatively well, but their   country that allocates chairs and seats of
bilateral agenda is limited, even frozen          The Eastern Partnership has offered all      electoral rules and campaigns are less fair,   parliamentary committees to opposition
following the 2010 presidential election,     EaP countries a more advanced level of di-       particularly in Armenia.                       parties on the basis of their share of seats,
Belarus effectively has no ongoing politi-    alogue. Since their representatives are in-         With respect to political competition,      enabling the opposition to influence the
cal dialogue with the EU.                     cluded in the EaP multilateral institutions,     Ukraine and Moldova have the most com-         agenda of legislative debates.
    Interestingly, the intensiveness of       its added value has been an opportunity to       petitive political systems, as indicated by       All other countries have directly elect-
high level bilateral visits and cooperation   expand contacts with EU member states            the vote differentials between incumbent       ed presidents, but Ukraine, Georgia and
with European political parties that have     at different levels and on different issues.     presidents and parties and the opposition,     Armenia have demonstrated that this
groups in the European Parliament indi-       In terms of political dialogue, Belarus has      the legislative activism of the opposition     constitutional option does not necessar-
cate that Georgia, Moldova, and Ukraine       probably benefited the most among EaP            and the cohesion of parliamentary groups.      ily mean marginalizing the legislature, as
are the frontrunners. This suggests that      countries, since EaP institutions have in-       Although Georgia’s legislature is more         they have provided significant powers to
the countries that have membership aspi-      cluded the country in cooperation with           competitive than Armenia’s, the most re-       their assemblies. Still, legislatures in all
rations are interested in having intensive    the EU. Its officials and civil servants take    cent presidential races in both countries      six EaP countries lack resources, such as
dialogue with the EU and, in return, the      part in meetings of EaP institutions. Eu-        have been clearly dominated by incum-          policy experts who might help opposition
EU is also more interested in these coun-     ronest, the parliamentary arm of the EaP,        bents. In contrast, presidential elections     parties challenge the policy expertise of
tries. Belarus may somewhat compensate        for political reasons, is the only exception.    have been more competitive in Azerbaijan       ministries and prepare substantiated bills.
24




 Rule of Law                                              appointment and promotion decisions,                        service, regular performance reviews and       turnover on average over 2007-2010 and
                                                          but this step requires that incumbent                       proper professional development systems        ranking 23rd among EU trading partners.
    Moldova and Georgia have imple-                       judges be of exceptional personal integrity                 for their staff.                               Armenia has the lowest share of EU trade
 mented the most rules and procedures                     and not abuse their immunity to violate                         In developing institutions for policy      turnover and ranks 108th.
 guaranteeing an independent and profes-                  the law. Protecting functional immu-                        formulation and coordination, Moldova              The breakdown of EaP country exports
 sional judiciary. However, even these two                nity while maintaining accountability is                    is far ahead of the other EaP countries,       and imports from and to the EU differs
 leading countries have been unable to en-                a problem that has not been adequately                      since its government has, amongst oth-         significantly. Firstly, EaP exports to the
 sure that the appointment, promotion and                 solved in most EaP countries.                               ers, put together detailed administrative      EU are dominated by raw materials and
 dismissal of judges is only guided by pro-                                                                           procedures for processing and evaluating       unfinished products, like energy and met-
 fessional standards and protected against                                                                            policies. In contrast, Belarus and even        als, while the countries import mostly fi-
 political influences. These selection proce-             Governance quality                                          Ukraine lag behind the Caucasian coun-         nal products from the EU. Only Moldova
 dures emerged as the weakest links in EaP                                                                            tries, lacking, for example, bodies to coor-   shows a high—over 50%—share of final
 country judicial systems, although judicial                  Public administration in Moldova and,                   dinate cross-sectoral policies.                products in exports to the EU, largely tex-
 powers are relatively well respected and                 to a lesser extent, Armenia comes closest                                                                  tiles and clothing. For other EaP countries,
 enforced in most of the countries, except                to the standards of impartiality and pro-                                                                  shares vary between 0 and 15%. Exports
 for Belarus and Azerbaijan. Azerbaijan                   fessionalism defined in our survey. As for                  Trade and Economic                             of machinery and transport equipment to
 also has particularly weak or dysfunc-                   the judicial systems, personnel decisions                   integration                                    the EU occupy noticeable share only for
 tional procedures to achieve accountable                 emerge as the weakest link in public ad-                                                                   two EaP countries, namely Ukraine, with
 and transparent judicial decision-making.                ministration for all countries, even though                    Trade in Goods1: As things are              10.9% of total exports in 2010, and Mol-
 Ukraine lags behind Georgia due to its                   the legal and institutional frameworks of                      As the largest regional market, the EU      dova, with 8.3%. The highest shares of raw
 less impartial appointment, promotion                    civil service administration are relatively                 plays an important role in trade in goods      material exports to the EU are from Azer-
 and dismissal procedures and due to the                  well developed in many of them. The                         with all the EaP countries. In 2010, it was    baijan, with 99.5% of total exports, and
 weak protection of judges against harass-                situation in Belarus appears to be most                     the №1 trading partner in both exports         Georgia, 86.9%, also due to the export of
 ment, assault and even assassination.                    removed from a professional and impar-                      and imports of goods for all EaP countries     energy.
    None of the six countries can be said to              tial public bureaucracy, while Azerbaijan                   except for Belarus.2 EaP trade turnover            By contrast, EaP country imports
 guarantee a judicial deliberation protected              scores comparatively well and outperforms                   with the EU varies between 30% and 50%         from the EU are dominated by finished
 from undue influences by senior judges,                  even Ukraine with its much more compet-                     of total trade, with the highest EU share      products—40–70% of the total—, espe-
 private interests or other branches of gov-              itive political system and better rule of law               seen in Moldova and the lowest in Belarus      cially machinery and vehicles. The EU has
 ernment. Most countries also lack a judi-                record. The main cause for this placement                   and Georgia.                                   played an important role in modernizing
 cial self-governing body with a majority of              is Ukraine’s weak standards of recruitment,                    By contrast, EaP countries play a           the EaP economies, supplying capital
 members elected by judges that has a deci-               promotion and disciplinary procedures. In                   very modest role as EU trading partners.       products and the organizational know-
 sive influence on the career paths of judges.            contrast with Ukraine, Azerbaijan and                       Ukraine has been the largest trading part-     how associated with them.
 Establishing this element of judicial                    Armenia operate, among others, consis-                      ner for the EU among the EaP countries,
 self-government is key to depoliticizing                 tent recruitment practices across the civil                 accounting for only 1.2% of EU trade

     1
         Reliable and comparable statistics on trade in services, as well as investment, appears to be unavailable.
     2
         Trade turnover with the EU is second to the Russian Federation, with which Belarus has signed a Customs Union Agreement
25




   Trade policy                                        Azerbaijan enjoys zero duty on virtually                      tend to have higher average duty on farm             of DCFTA talks is expected to be non-
    Most EaP countries enjoy some prefer-              all its products, mostly because energy                       products, compared to industrial goods.              tariff barriers to commodity trade and
ential access to the EU market, either un-             products almost entirely dominate its ex-                        Trade protection measures have been               trade in services, and other trade-related
der the Generalized System of Preferences              ports basket.                                                 rarely used in trade between the EU and              topics like intellectual property rights,
(GSP)4 or the GSP+5 and Autonomous                        Ukraine has to pay duty on more prod-                      EaP countries. Ukraine accounts for the              competition policy, state procurement,
Trade Preferences (ATP). These prefer-                 ucts than any other EaP country. This is                      majority of currently registered cases.              the environment, and dispute settlement
ences are non-reciprocal and are provided              due to the nature of the country’s exports                    These measures were adopted mostly a                 mechanisms. In tariff negotiations, access
by the EU to developing countries with                 and the relatively high share of ‘sensitive’                  decade ago, that is, before the EU grant-            for agricultural products to EU markets is
the primary aim of contributing to pov-                products. Also, Ukraine’s exports exceed                      ed Ukraine market economy status, and                highly sensitive on both sides of the table.
erty alleviation, sustainable development              1% of the total GSP-covered imports,                          Ukraine became the member of the WTO.                   The deep institutional reforms embed-
and good governance in these countries.                while its GSP-covered imports are not                         No new measures against the Ukrainian                ded in implementing the DCFTAs make
   All EaP countries except for Belarus                sufficiently concentrated, preventing the                     exports have been implemented recently.              impact assessment a challenging exercise.
are eligible for the GSP. Preferences to               country from being classified as ‘vulner-                                                                          Databases and measurement techniques
Belarus were temporary withdrawn in De-                able.’ 6 As a result, Ukraine is not eligible                    Towards DCFTA?                                    need further elaboration. In particular, a
cember 2006 in response to systematic and              for the more generous preferences provid-                        As part of the European Neighbour-                comprehensive statistical database for
serious violations of the core principles of           ed within the GSP+, either.                                   hood Policy and Eastern Partnership,                 trade in services is needed between the
the International Labour Organization.                    The actual level of tariff protection                      the EU is working to establish Deep                  EU and its partner countries.
   Three EaP countries—Armenia, Azer-                  faced by EaP countries in the EU is de-                       and Comprehensive Free Trade Areas
baijan and Georgia—are eligible for the                termined by the EU Import Tariff Sched-                       (DCFTA) with all EaP countries. Ne-
GSP+. Moldova was formally removed                     ule, eligibility for existing preferential                    gotiations on this part of the Association           Market Economy
from the list of GSP beneficiaries as it be-           schemes—GSP, GSP+ and others—, bi-                            Agreement have been underway with
came entitled to ATPs above the level of               lateral agreements, and the country’s com-                    Ukraine since 2008. With Armenia, Mol-                   In assessing domestic economic perfor-
GSP+ as of March 2008. ATPs give Mol-                  modity structure.                                             dova, and Georgia these negotiations are             mance, we focused on the quality of the
dova unlimited and duty-free access to the                Among EaP countries, Belarusian ex-                        expected to begin in the near future. The            business climate in the countries and their
EU market for all products originating in              porters face the highest level of protection                  remaining two EaP countries, Belarus and             transition progress as widely-used indica-
Moldova, except for certain agricultural               in the EU, followed by Ukraine, while                         Azerbaijan, are not yet WTO members,                 tors for international economic compari-
products.                                              Moldova’s exporters face the lowest. EU                       but they are negotiating accession. The              sons, not affected by country size, specific
   Thanks to continuous EU trade liber-                exporters have to deal with the highest                       DCFTA negotiations can only come after               factors, and short-term shocks. In particu-
alization efforts and the flexible system              duty in Belarus, based on the reciprocity                     accession.                                           lar, we used two sets of indices produced
of trade preferences, over 80% of EaP                  principle, and in Azerbaijan. The lowest                         Given the fairly liberal duty regime              by the World Bank Doing Business and
country products effectively enter the                 import duty on EU products is applied in                      applied in commodity trade between the               the EBRD Transition Reports.
EU market without paying import duty.                  Georgia. Both the EU and EaP countries                        EU and EaP countries, the natural focus                  A number of conclusions can be drawn

   4
     The GSP is an autonomous trade arrangement through which the EU provides non-reciprocal preferential access to the EU market. The system allows exporters from developing countries to pay lower duties on
some or all of what they sell to the EU. It envisages duty-free access for non-sensitive products, and a reduction in import duties for sensitive products. See details at http://ec.europa.eu/trade/wider-agenda/develop-
ment/generalised-system-of-preferences/
   5
    The GSP is an autonomous trade arrangement through which the EU provides non-reciprocal preferential access to the EU market. The system allows exporters from developing countries to pay lower duties on
some or all of what they sell to the EU. It envisages duty-free access for non-sensitive products, and a reduction in import duties for sensitive products. See details at http://ec.europa.eu/trade/wider-agenda/develop-
ment/generalised-system-of-preferences/
   6
       See definition and list of eligible countries at http://trade.ec.europa.eu/doclib/docs/2008/july/tradoc_139963.pdf
26




 from the analysis. According to WB’s          the EU, partly determined by the size of        may encourage countries to proceed with         launched institutional cooperation with
 Doing Business, Georgia enjoys the best       the country, but its business climate is        crucial reforms in combating corruption         the EU in FSJ back in 2002, when the
 business climate among the EaP countries,     the worst of the lot. Still, once a business    and organized crime, fighting illegal mi-       first EU-Ukraine Action Plan on “Free-
 followed by Belarus. The worst business       climate improves, it further boosts invest-     gration and human trafficking, and stimu-       dom, Security and Justice” was signed—
 climate is reportedly in Ukraine.             ments and trade between the parties.            late reforms aimed at better protection of      and updated in 2007. In the case of Mol-
     Four of the six EaP countries—Arme-                                                       human rights, more effective law enforce-       dova, there was no separate document on
 nia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Georgia—have                                                        ment and a transparent judiciary.               the matter and structured cooperation was
 organized quick start-up procedures for       Freedom, Security                                  The specific “carrot” in the FSJ coop-       launched under the EU-Moldova ENP
 business, both in terms of time and fees,     and Justice                                     eration with EaP countries is visa liberali-    Action Plan signed in 2005.
 effectively allowing free entry on their                                                      sation, which is expected to stimulate and          Both Ukraine and Moldova have al-
 markets. At the same time, all six coun-          The leaders, Ukraine and Moldova, are       guide important reforms aimed at making         ready almost completed negotiations on
 tries throw up obstacles for business clo-    at about the same level of FSJ cooperation      these countries safer for both their own        the chapter on Justice, Liberty and Se-
 sure, thus preventing free market exit (an-   with the EU, although Moldova is appar-         citizens and foreign partners.                  curity in the framework of official talks
 other basic principle of market economy).     ently doing better where Approximation of          At the same time, FSJ cooperation can        on the Association Agreements that will
 Armenia demonstrates the best result,         FSJ is concerned. Ukraine took the lead         raise certain risks when it comes to rela-      replace their PCAs.
 while Ukraine shows the worst.                for a long time, while Moldova made             tions with authoritarian and repressive re-         For a long time, especially after the Or-
     Paying taxes is cumbersome in all of      steps to catch up and even moved ahead          gimes, as it happens with Belarusian Ales       ange Revolution in late 2004, Ukraine was
 the EaP countries, with Georgia being the     after its change of government in 2009.         Bialiatski, Chair of the Viasna Human           seen as a pioneer in FSJ. It was the first
 least so. Both time-consuming procedures      Meanwhile, Georgia has had more success         Rights Centre. In August 2011, Mr. Biali-       among EaP countries to sign the Visa Fa-
 and high tax rates cause problems.            in combating corruption and organized           atski was detained by Belarusian authori-       cilitation Agreement (VFA) and a Read-
    All EaP countries have relatively good     crime, where it outperforms the leaders.        ties on charges of tax evasion as a result of   mission Agreement (2007). Then the pro-
 standing in contract enforcement.             Armenia and Azerbaijan have a substan-          information provided by Lithuanian and          cess was synchronized with Moldova and
    The EBRD Transition Indicators show        tially shorter record of institutional FSJ      Polish governments on a matter presented        the Western Balkans and all agreements
 that all EaP countries have room for im-      cooperation with the EU and weaker po-          by Minsk as “combating money-launder-           entered into force as of January 2008.
 provement in the majority of areas. The       litical will. In the case of Belarus, obvious   ing.” This case clearly demonstrate the             Georgia signed such documents with
 corporate sector and certain infrastructure   political limitations dominate.                 way FSJ cooperation may be misused and          the EU in June 2010, while the negotia-
 sectors are currently the most developed.         FSJ cooperation between the EU and          even used against the purpose for which         tions with Armenia and Azerbaijan are to
 At the same time, further regulatory ef-      EaP countries is an issue of high impor-        it has been designed. So, FSJ cooperation       be launched in the near future.
 forts need to be devoted to developing the    tance, as it indicates the level of integra-    cannot be assessed automatically with a             The European Commission also re-
 financial and energy sectors.                 tion/cooperation in the most sensitive          quantitative approach and actual capacity       ceived a mandate for VFA and readmission
    There seems to be no direct link be-       areas, which require a high confidence          of a partner to cooperate on the basis of       talks with Belarus. Despite almost frozen
 tween “Trade and Economic Integration”        between partners. FSJ cooperation is            democracy, respect for human rights and         relations, the Council of Foreign Minis-
 with the EU, on the one hand, and “Mar-       closely connected with the maturity of          rule of law should by considered.               ters stressed the importance of promot-
 ket Economy,” on the other. For instance,     democratic institutions and rule of law.           As mentioned, Ukraine and Moldo-             ing people-to-people contacts between
 Ukraine has the largest trade value with      Increasing standards of FSJ cooperation         va are the leaders of the group. Ukraine        Belarus and the EU on January 31, 2011.
27




At the same time, the EU has imposed                 Member States are currently in effect                      has been confirmed in numerous indepen-         litical will to reform is stronger in the case
visa restrictions on some 200 Belarusian             in Ukraine, which is the largest number                    dent studies, such as Transparency Inter-       of Moldova. Georgia is the more obvious
officials involved in political repression           among EaP countries.                                       national’s Corruption Perception Index,         success story in such key areas as combat-
following the presidential elections in                 Currently, no EaP country has en-                       which gave Georgia the best score, 3.8,         ing corruption and organized crime. The
December 2010.                                       forced operational agreements with Eu-                     among all the EaP countries in 2010. By         more modest success of Armenia and
    Ukraine unilaterally cancelled visa re-          ropol or Eurojust. Ukraine and Moldova                     contrast, Ukraine and Azerbaijan were at        Azerbaijan is due to a substantially shorter
quirements for EU citizens in 2005, with             have only signed framework agreements                      the bottom, with 2.4, Belarus was margin-       record of institutional FSJ cooperation
Moldova and Georgia following suit sev-              with Europol.                                              ally better at 2.5, Armenia similarly at 2.6,   with the EU, as well as to weaker Euro-
eral months later. Armenia and Azerbai-                 In border management, only Ukraine                      and Moldova a still-distant 2.9.8               pean aspirations in these countries. In the
jan continue to practice a symmetric visa            and Moldova have Working Arrange-                              Ukraine and Moldova, although               case of Belarus, political risks place serious
policy approach. Azerbaijan even tough-              ments with FRONTEX, as well as valu-                       frontrunners on most aspects of FSJ, are        limitations on existing opportunities.
ened its visa policies as it cancelled visas         able practical cooperation with EUBAM,                     considered countries of origin for illegal
at borders.                                          the EU Border Assistance Mission.                          migration to the EU more than other
    In October 2009, Ukraine was the first           Ukraine, Georgia, Moldova and Arme-                        EaP countries. The government of Mol-           Energy and Transport
country to start an official Visa Dialogue,          nia have all implemented an integrated                     dova proved the most willing to cooperate
with the ultimate goal of visa-free travel           border management concept in domestic                      comprehensively with the EU in migra-              Energy
regime. Moldova launched its dialogue in             legislation, while the first three have also               tion and asylum. Meanwhile, Belarus and            Where energy is concerned, the EaP
June 2010, while other EaP countries can             put together the necessary Action Plans                    Azerbaijan are source countries of asylum-      Index analyzes the extent to which the
do so after full implementation of VFAs              or implementation strategy. These three                    seekers, but cooperation with them is lim-      energy markets of EaP countries are inte-
and Readmission Agreements.                          countries are obviously ahead of other                     ited for political reasons.                     grated with and organized similarly to EU
    Ukraine signed its Action Plan on Visa           three EaP partners in efforts to reform                        Ukraine is the most advanced where          energy markets. Since the issues of energy
Liberalisation (APVL) in November 2010.              border security structures into a Europe-                  border management is concerned, while           sector and energy policy receive a lot of
Moldova did likewise in January 2011.                an-style border force.                                     the relative success of Moldova is re-          attention in EU policy towards EaP coun-
The initial period of APVL implementa-                  Moldova can be considered as the                        stricted by the Transnistrian conflict:         tries, the Index looks at energy market
tion showed that this new instrument was            “laboratory” of new initiatives such as the                 450 km of the country’s border is out of        regulation and the market structure of the
an effective tool to mobilize both coun-             Mobility Partnership, since 2008, and the                  control of the central government. Geor-        EaP countries in terms of EU standards.
tries’ governments to proceed with impor-            Common Visa Application Centre, since                      gia, Azerbaijan and Armenia have similar            Our analysis of trade in energy includ-
tant legislation, including ratification of          20077. In 2011, Moldova became the first                   problems—“frozen conflicts” and hostile         ed mineral fuels, mineral oils and products
CoE and UN conventions, in such areas                EaP country to stop issuing non-biomet-                    relations with some neighbours.                 of their distillation9. Foreign direct invest-
as integrated border management, data                ric passports to its citizens and is now is-                  To sum up, Moldova and Ukraine are           ment in trade was excluded from the ana-
protection, countering human trafficking             suing only biometric, ICAO-compliant                       at about the same level of FSJ cooperation      lysis due to unavailability of reliable and
and illegal migration, protecting refugees           passports.                                                 with the EU, with Moldova being some-           comparable data. The results show that
and asylum-seekers, and so on.                          Yet, Georgia is the more obvious suc-                   what in the lead. Ukraine’s success is due      Azerbaijan is significantly ahead of other
   13 cooperation agreements on judi-                cess story in such key areas as combating                  to the longer formal record of cooperation      EaP countries in export of energy, while
cial cooperation and assistance with EU              corruption and organized crime. This fact                  with the EU in this field, whereas the po-      Moldova and Georgia in import of energy.

   7
       Moldova’s Foreign Policy Statewatch, Issue 30, July 2011, http://www.viitorul.org/public/3466/en/Policy%20Statewatch30_en.pdf
   8
       Corruption Perception Index 2010 Results http://www.transparency.org/policy_research/surveys_indices/cpi/2010/results
   9
       Article 27 of United Nations Commodity Trade Statistics Database.
28




         For now, EaP countries are only at the     responsibility for fair and non-discrimina-    and EaP countries.                             Belarus, who are both larger and closer to
     initial stage of integration with the EU       tory pricing. Moreover, energy markets in          So far, EaP countries have not demon-      the EU.
     in energy, partly due to the institutional     EaP countries remain highly monopolized,       strated much success in pursuing deeper            In terms of the regulatory environment,
     weakness of EaP country energy markets,        which hampers competition, transparency        integration with the common trans-             Azerbaijan and Moldova rank high, with
     especially in terms of secure energy policy,   and the general efficiency of the sector.      port corridors of the EU, in particular in     Georgia a close third. Ukraine has the
     internal market competition and energy            Unlike the EU, EaP countries are            aviation and maritime transport. Only          worst record: while it has allowed third-
     commodity and investment turnover with         less dependent on energy imports, since        Georgia has signed an agreement on a           party access to its marine port and airport
     the EU. To a lesser extent, this also has to   many of them have domestic resources           Common Aviation Area, although Mol-            infrastructure and unbundled different
     do with the fact that the EU’s energy mar-     and different primary energy consump-          dova finalized the talks in October and        business activities there, it has not estab-
     ket has been constantly moving towards         tion patterns. Nevertheless, EaP countries     Ukraine still in talks to join as well. When   lished an independent transport regulator
     higher standards, which makes it difficult     consume twice as much energy as the EU         this happens, it will be advantageous for      and has not reduced state influence. Bela-
     for EaP countries to catch up. Objective       standard due to the high energy intensity      all sides because of better quality and        rus has the weakest regulatory environ-
     reasons—historical, geographical and           of their economics and inefficient energy      more reasonably priced aviation services.      ment in terms of EU standards.
     geopolitical—also account for differences      sectors. Their efforts in developing re-          All the EaP countries are located along        When it comes to road safety, Georgia
     among EaP countries in cooperation with        newables, adopting CO2 Emission Trad-          transport corridors between the EU and         has been the worst performer, though this
     the EU.                                        ing Scheme and CO2 emission reduction          Russia and Asian countries. Consequently,      can be attributed to its complicated terrain.
         Energy legislation in EaP countries        targets, and so on, have been quite weak.      they occupy a very advantageous transit        In general, all EaP countries demonstrate
     largely fails to meet the requirements         Only Ukraine and Armenia have defined          position, in particular Ukraine, which has     poor transport safety, which means that all
     of the EU and Energy Community in              National RES targets as guidelines in their    the largest number of international trans-     of them have to work hard to improve this
     South-Eastern Europe. Only Ukraine             national energy policy. EaP countries have     port corridors that are priorities for the     aspect of their transport system.
     and Moldova are members of the Energy          relatively high CO2 emission levels, gener-    EU’s transport system. However, trans-             It can be argued that all the countries
     Community and have taken on strict ob-         ated primarily by coal-fired power genera-     port companies from Belarus and Mol-           under consideration are at a different
     ligations to meet EU legal requirements,       tion. This means they have to work hard        dova obtain relatively significant numbers     progress level in transport integration and
     while Georgia has observer status. Yet, few    to reach even today’s level of energy and      of permits to enter the EU, compared to        harmonization with the EU and the ef-
     relevant reforms have taken place. For in-     carbon emission efficiency in the EU. It is    Ukraine. Armenia, Azerbaijan and Geor-         forts of Moldova and the three Caucasus
     stance, only three countries adopted some      expected that the latter aspect will play an   gia do not have a common land border           countries are noteworthy.
     of the legislation demanded by the EU to       increasingly dominant role in the EU and       and are therefore disadvantaged in terms
     regulate the gas market (Ukraine), elec-       will be demanded of non-EU countries           of integration with the EU’s land trans-
     tricity market (Armenia and Moldova)           wanting to integrate into the EU’s energy      port system. Nevertheless, they have made      Environment
     and renewables (Armenia). Other impor-         market.                                        significant efforts in recent years to im-
     tant issues remain uncovered.                                                                 prove the quality of their transport infra-       Armenia, Ukraine and Moldova are
         In terms of the standards for organiz-        Transport                                   structure and customs procedures. As a         leading in terms of policy, where envi-
     ing the EU’s internal gas market, EaP             Where transport is concerned, the un-       result, despite their more disadvantageous     ronmental protection has a crosscutting
     countries are far behind. Only Moldova,        derlying idea is that transport connections    geographic placement, they are more ad-        nature—environmental policy integra-
     Georgia and Armenia have an indepen-           should be smoother, safer and more reli-       vanced in terms of infrastructure, which       tion (EPI)—, as demanded by the EU.
     dent regulator on their energy market with     able for all transport users from the EU       allows them to compete with Ukraine and        Although Ukraine recently adopted new
Eap index pilot edition
Eap index pilot edition
Eap index pilot edition
Eap index pilot edition
Eap index pilot edition
Eap index pilot edition
Eap index pilot edition
Eap index pilot edition

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Eap index pilot edition

  • 1. International Renaissance Foundation in cooperation with the Open Society Foundations European Integration Index for Eastern Partnership Countries Pilot edition November 2011
  • 2. 2 This report was written by: Iryna Solonenko (editor) We would like to thank expert team leaders Boris Navasardian, Leila Aliyeva, Dzianis Melyantsou, Martin Brusis Tamara Pataraia, Leonid Litra, Kateryna Shynkaruk, our colleagues from OSF Viorel Ursu, Paweł Veronika Movchan Bagiński, Tetyana Kukharenko, and Inna Pidluska, and all the experts from the EaP countries Iryna Sushko (listed at the end of the report) for their input. We also thank Richard Youngs, Natalia Shapovalova, Natalia Sysenko Norman Spengler, Helmut Anheier, and Jeff Lovitt for their input at different stages of this project. Yaryna Borenko We also acknowledge the kind assistance of the EU Delegation to Ukraine: special thanks go to Anna Golubovska-Onisimova David Stulik, Fabiola di Clemente, Dimitri Gorchakov, Stefanie Harter, Richard Jones, Oksana Victoria Gumeniuk Popruga, Andriy Spivak, and Volodymyr Kondrachuk. And we greatly appreciated the feedback Dmytro Naumenko from numerous experts from the EU and EaP countries, including Kataryna Wolczuk, Katar- zyna Pelczynska-Nalecz, Kristi Raik, Oleksandr Duleba, Laure Delcour, Irene Hahn, Taras Kachka, Olga Sauliak, Susann Worschech, Olena Pavlenko, and Volodymyr Kuzka, as well as the partici- pants of the roundtables in Kyiv in January and May 2011, and Brussels in October 2011. Language editing: Lidia Wolanskyj Design and layout: Denis Barbeskumpe
  • 3. 3 Preface The European Integration Index for The Index was developed by indepen- Eastern Partnership Countries will track dent civil society experts who advocate the progress of Eastern Partnership (EaP) reforms related to European integra- countries—Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, tion. It is prepared by the International Georgia, Moldova, and Ukraine—on an Renaissance Foundation (IRF) in partner- annual basis. It provides a nuanced cross- ship with the Open Society Foundations country and cross-sector picture that is (OSF) and experts from think-tanks and comparative. university institutions in EaP countries The Index is a monitoring tool that is and the EU. The project is funded by also intended to assist EU institutions in the IRF’s European Programme and the applying the ‘more for more’/‘less for less’ EastEast: Partnership Beyond Borders principle, announced by the EU in May Programme of the OSF. 2011. Although the EU and independent This is a pilot edition of the European civil society initiatives provide numerous Integration Index, so we welcome feedback regular assessments of the progress of EaP on the composition and methodo-logy of countries in European integration, few of the Index in order to work to improve this these assessments have attempted to place product. The first full-fledged edition of the countries in a comparative perspective. the Index will be published in May 2012 This is what the Index primarily attempts and will then become an annual project. to do.
  • 4. 4 Inside the Index: What we look at and how we approach it What? The Index interprets “progress in Eu- dynamic depends more on facilitative ropean integration” as the combination of political decisions and structures. Such a two separate yet interdependent processes: concept of European integration has led increased linkages between each of the us to identify three dimensions for evalu- EaP countries and the European Union; ation: and greater approximation between those 1. Linkage: growing political, econom- countries’ institutions, legislation and ic and social ties between each of the six practices and those of the EU. While the EaP countries and the EU; first process reflects the growth of political, 2. Approximation: structures and in- economic and societal interdependencies stitutions in EaP countries converging between EaP countries and the EU, the towards EU standards and in line with second process shows the degree to which EU requirements; each EaP country adopts institutions and 3. Management: evolving manage- policies typical of EU member states and ment structures for European integration required of EaP countries by the EU. in EaP countries. The Index assumes that increased link- These dimensions are subdivided ages and greater approximation mutually into the SECTIONS , Categories and reinforce each other. However, this virtu- Subcategories shown in Table 1. ous circle is not fully self-enforcing. Its
  • 5. 5 Table 1. 5. FREEDOM, SECURITY AND JUSTICE 5.1 Visa dialogue 5.2 Migration and asylum Linkage Dimension Approximation Dimension 5.3 Border management 5.4 Security 1. POLITICAL DIALOGUE 1. DEMOCRACY 5.4.1 Organized crime 1.1 Bilateral institutions 1.1 Elections (national legislature) 5.4.2 Money laundering, including financing of terrorism 1.2 Multilateral institutions and Eastern Partnership 1.1.1 Fair electoral campaign 5.4.3 Human Trafficking 1.3 CFSP/ESDP Cooperation 1.1.2 Legal framework and its implementation 5.4.4 Drugs 1.1.3 Organization of elections 5.4.5 Customs (law enforcement aspects) 2. TRADE AND ECONOMIC INTEGRATION 1.2 Robust political competition 5.5 Judiciary 2.1 Trade flows 1.3 Executive accountability to legislature 5.5.1 Detention and imprisonment 2.2 Trade Barriers 1.3.1 Legislature’s influence over executive 1.3.2 Legislature’s institutional autonomy 6. ENERGY and TRANSPORT 3. FREEDOM, SECURITY AND JUSTICE 1.3.3 Legislature’s specific powers 6.1 Energy: legislation convergence 3.1 Visa dialogue 1.3.4 Legislature’s institutional capacity 6.1.1 Energy community 3.2 Migration and asylum 1.3.5 Conditions for opposition 6.1.2 EU “Energy packages” implementation 3.3 Border management 1.4 Media freedom 6.2 Energy policy 3.4 Security 1.5 Association and assembly rights 6.2.1 Institutional framework of energy market 3.4.1 Organized crime 6.2.2 Energy efficiency 3.4.2 Money laundering, including financing of terrorism 2. RULE OF LAW 6.3 Transport regulatory policy 3.4.3 Drugs 2.1 Independent, professional judiciary 3.5. Judiciary 2.1.1 Appointment, promotion and dismissal 7. ENVIRONMENT 3.5.1 Judicial cooperation: criminal and civil matters 2.1.2 Institutional independence 7.1 Environmental policy 3.5.2 Detention and imprisonment 2.1.3 Judicial powers 7.2 Resources efficiency 2.1.4 Accountability and transparency 7.3 Climate change 4. ENERGY and TRANSPORT 2.2 Protection of civil liberties 7.4 Pressure to/ state of environment 4.1 Energy trade 2.3 Equal opportunities 4.2 Integration with Trans-European Networks 8. EDUCATION and PEOPLE-TO-PEOPLE 3. GOVERNANCE QUALITY 8.1 Bologna principles implementation 5. EDUCATION and PEOPLE-TO-PEOPLE 3.1 Control of Corruption 8.2 Policy on culture, youth, Information society, media, 5.1 Mobility, including academic and students mobility 3.2 Impartial, professional public administration audiovisual policies 5.2 Participation in EU programmes and agencies 3.2.1 Legal framework of civil service management 3.2.2 Institutional framework 6. ASSISTANCE 3.2.3 Employment and remuneration 6.1 European Commission Development Aid 3.2.4 Recruitment, promotion and disciplinary procedures Management Dimension 6.2 European Neighbourhood and Partnership Instrument 3.3 Policy formulation and coordination 6.2.1 National 3.4 Budget preparation and implementation 1. COORDINATION MECHANISM 6.2.2 ENPI East regional/ Interregional 3.5 Internal and external auditing 6.3 Global and thematic instruments 3.6 Public procurement 2. LEGAL APPROXIMATION MECHANISM 6.4 European financial institutions 6.5 Special technical assistance 4. MARKET ECONOMY 3. PARTICIPATION OF CIVIL SOCIETY 4. MANAGEMENT OF EU ASSISTANCE
  • 6. 6 All categories and subcategories are thorities and EU institutions. This was and “hard” coding and aggregation prac- coordinators and experts, requesting them further broken down into items that are designed to obtain a more differentiated, tices that suggest a degree of precision not (1) to clarify their own assessments where listed in full on the Project’s website1. These first-hand comparative assessment that matched by the more complex underlying necessary and (2) to review the codings by items consist of questions for experts and would make it possible to pinpoint the reality and their verbal representation in comparing them with codings and assess- quantitative indicators from public data strengths and weaknesses of EaP coun- country reports. The expert survey un- ments made for the other countries. Ex- sources. tries. derlying the Index therefore avoids broad perts who disagreed with the evaluation of The structure of the Linkage and Ap- The Management dimension looks at opinion questions, and instead tries to ver- their country were requested to communi- proximation dimensions reflects the institutional structures for European in- ify precise and detailed facts. Drawing on cate and explain their disagreement to the multi-level and multi-sectoral nature of tegration coordination and management existing cross-national studies1, we have core team. Finally, the core team reviewed European integration. It also reflects the on the ground. While the EU has no spe- adapted the questions from these sur- and adapted its scores in the light of this structure of bilateral Action Plans/Asso- cific requirements or blueprints as to how veys to our set of countries and our focus expert feedback. This iterative evaluation ciation Agenda between the EU and EaP European integration policies should be of measurement. Most survey questions was intended to facilitate a mutual under- countries, and the EU’s annual Progress managed, we believe that this dimension asked for a ‘Yes’ or ‘No’ (Y/N) response to standing among experts as well as between Reports. Since many items in these di- reflects the level of commitment to Euro- induce experts to take a clear position and experts and coders, in order to improve the mensions have not been compared sys- pean integration and the capacity to deal to minimize misclassification. All ques- reliability and validity of the assessments. tematically in existing surveys, we have with the growing EU-related agenda in tions invited experts to explain and thus As a rule, all Y/N questions for coun- asked various local experts to provide their each EaP country. to contextualize their response. In addi- try experts were coded 1 = yes or positive assessments and information. tion, experts were requested to substanti- with regard to European integration and The Approximation dimension also ate their assessment by listing sources. 0 = no or negative with regard to Euro- seeks to assess how closely institutions How? The survey was implemented in four pean integration and labelled “1-0”. If and policies in EaP countries resemble steps. First, the country coordinators se- the expert comments and the correspon- those typical of EU member states. The How can the European Integration In- lected and commissioned local experts, dence with experts suggested intermediate sections on democracy, rule of law and dex achieve a valid and reliable measure- asking them to evaluate the situation in scores, such assessments were coded as 0.5 market economy not only constitute core ment of its items? The Index combines their country on the basis of the question- scores and labelled “calibration.” For items conditions that the EU imposes on coun- indicators from existing sources with first- naire. Different parts of the questionnaire requiring numerical data, that is, quan- tries interested in closer relations with hand empirical information gathered by were assigned to related sectoral experts. titative indicators, the source data was it—they are also uncontested political local country experts. This general design Next, the country coordinators returned standardized through a linear transforma- aims and legitimizing general principles is intended to use the best existing knowl- the responses to the core survey team at tion, using information about distances in all EaP countries. These sections partly edge and to improve this body of knowl- IRF, which reviewed and coded the re- between country scores. use ratings and composite indicators pro- edge by focused, systematic data collection sponses to ensure cross-national compa- To transform source data into scores, it duced by international agencies and other that benefits from OSF’s unique embed- rability. The experts’ comments allowed was necessary to define the endpoints of non-governmental organizations (NGOs). dedness and access to local knowledge in us to make a preliminary coding (scoring) the scale. These benchmarks can be based For certain areas that were not well EaP countries. that was sensitive to the specific context on the empirical distribution or on theo- covered by existing cross-national com- However, expert surveys are prone to that guided individual experts in their as- retical considerations, on the country cases parisons, we decided to develop detailed subjectivity. Many such available surveys sessments. As a third step, the core survey examined or on external standards. In the catalogues of items through consultations are characterized by a mismatch between team returned the coded assessments for case of the Index, this problem is inter- with experts from civil society, public au- “soft,” potentially biased expert opinions all six EaP countries to the local country twined with the question of the ultimate 1 http://www.irf.ua/index.php?option=com_content&view=category&layout=blog&id=273&Itemid=519
  • 7. 7 fate of the Eastern Partnership. Whereas my” section, benchmarks were defined by the EU refuses to consider accession as an the best and worst performing countries option, yet tends to expect standards simi- covered by the EBRD Transition Re- lar to those of the accession process, some ports. In the “Energy and Transport” and EaP countries continue to aspire to mem- “Environment” sections, a mixed approach bership. In addition to this uncertain des- was used: both region-specific and exter- tination, many items raise the problem of nal benchmarks were used, such as EBRD determining unambiguous best or worst Transition Reports’ countries, EU-27 practice benchmarks, in terms of both average, the largest possible number (i.e., theory and empirical identification. Given the number of existing directives or orga- these difficulties, we have opted for a mix nizations EaP countries can join), and so of empirical and theoretical benchmarks. on. External empirical benchmarks make For items scoring 0-1 or the intermedi- it possible to focus on gaps or catching-up ate 0.5, benchmarks were defined theoret- relative to external standards. ically by assigning 1 and 0 to the best and The Index measures the situation in worst possible performance. In contrast, EaP countries in June 2011. Thus, the benchmarks for quantitative indicators measurement is status-oriented, allowing were defined empirically: in most cases in us to compare the positions of individual both the Linkage and the Approximation countries to other countries for the dif- dimensions, we assigned 1 and 0 to the ferent items. Once the Index is produced best- and worst-performing EaP coun- annually, it will enable cross-temporal try to emphasize the relative position of assessments of a country’s convergence or a country among its peers. There were ex- divergence. ceptions, however. In the “Market Econo-
  • 8. 8 Key results Ukraine, the country that was once seen as the flagship country of the Eastern Part- nership, comes only third. Understandably, Looking at specific sections in the In- dex reveals interesting cross-country find- ings. For instance, although Azerbaijan at a glance Belarus is the least advanced among EaP countries. has a very low score, coming last, for “Free- dom, Security and Justice” under Link- Interestingly, Moldova demonstrated age, it is as advanced as Ukraine, second the best performance both in Linkage and best, in this section under Approximation. 1 The findings of the Index show that tive, it is no surprise that Moldova, Geor- Approximation and second best in Man- Similarly, where “Education and People- Moldova is the best performer, gia and Ukraine, which have long aspired agement, which supports the assumption to-People” is concerned, in the Linkage coming first in Linkage and Approxi- to EU membership, are doing better than underlying this Index—that increased dimension Azerbaijan is the second worst, mation and second in Management. Armenia, Azerbaijan and Belarus, which linkages and approximation mutually only narrowly better than Belarus, yet it 2 The second best performer is Georgia, have never aimed at joining the EU. reinforce each other. This assumption shows good result in the Approximation coming first in Management, second Notably, the results for Management seems to hold true for all EaP countries dimension. It is not clear what drives in Approximation, and third in Linkage. correlate with the overall ratings of in- with a few deviations. For instance, al- domestic Approximation in Azerbaijan 3 Ukraine is the third best performer, dividual countries. In other words, the though Ukraine ranks second in Linkage, given the limited Linkage in those fields. ranking second in Linkage and third countries that are best performers in gen- it ranks only third in Approximation and Armenia shows a similar pattern. It is the in Approximation—along with Arme- eral, Moldova and Georgia, show better third in Management. This suggests that worst in Linkage for “Energy and Trans- nia—and Management. scores for Management. They are followed Ukraine has not made the best use of its port,” yet the best in this sector under Ap- 4 Armenia follows Ukraine, shar- by Ukraine, Armenia, Azerbaijan and stronger record and more advanced level proximation. On the contrary, Ukraine is ing third position with Ukraine in Belarus, in the same order as the overall of cooperation with the EU compared to the best in terms of “Trade and Economic Approximation, but ranking fourth in Index rating. If we assume that Manage- the other countries. By contrast, Armenia Integration,” yet the second worst—just Linkage and Management. ment scores mostly reflect the level of in- performed well in Approximation, despite above Belarus—when it comes to “Mar- 5 Azerbaijan follows Armenia, ranking terest and political will on the part of EaP being disadvantaged in Linkage (see scat- ket Economy.” fifth in all three dimensions. countries, while Linkage and Approxima- ter plot—page 14). Another surprise: Belarus did the best 6 Belarus closes the list, being the worst tion reflect interest and effort on the part Also, while Moldova and Ukraine have in “Environment” under Approximation performer in all three dimensions. of both the EU and EaP countries, this somewhat lower scores in Approximation and “Management of EU assistance” un- suggests some interdependence between compared to Linkage, the other four EaP der Management, possibly due to central- The result seems to divide EaP coun- the degree of commitment of the EU and countries are doing better in Approxima- ized management in the country. tries in two groups: Moldova, Georgia that of EaP countries. It might also mean tion than in Linkage. This suggests that, It is important to note that relatively and Ukraine, the frontrunners with EU that, not only European aspirations, but despite the fact that Armenia, Azerbaijan, low scores of Ukraine, Belarus and Azer- membership aspirations; Armenia, Azer- also political will within each country to Georgia—who share great geographical baijan for “Assistance” have to do with the baijan and Belarus, the laggers who have reform and benefit from the instruments distance from the EU—and Belarus— fact that the Index have attempted to fo- not indicated interest in joining the EU. It offered by the EU plays a decisive role. In which suffers more from great politi- cus on relative, rather than absolute figures. seems that EU membership aspirations do this case, it is no surprise that Moldova cal distance—are less advantaged where This approach seems to benefit smaller determine the degree of Linkage and Ap- is the frontrunner in the Index, given the Linkage is concerned, they are catching up countries: Moldova, Georgia and Arme- proximation, as well as the Management of political situation in this country follow- in Approximation (see scatter plot—page nia have been leading, although Moldova European integration. From this perspec- ing its change of government in 2009. 14). is far ahead of the others.
  • 9. 9 Moldova Georgia Ukraine Armenia Azerbaijan Belarus Linkage 0.70 0.53 0.60 0.42 0.32 0.19 Approximation 0.67 0.63 0.57 0.57 0.49 0.37 0.88 0.92 0.68 0.32 0.28 0.20 Management * 1 (the full circle) means different things in different parts of the Index. In most cases fuller circle indicated more leading ranks of a country in comparison with other EaP countries or more convergence with best performing transition countries. See page 7 for more detailed explanation.
  • 10. 10 Linkage Moldova Ukraine Georgia Armenia Azerbaijan Belarus 0.70 0.60 0.53 0.42 0.32 0.19 Political dialogue 0.75 0.94 0.56 0.64 0.50 0.28 Trade and Economic integration 0.74 0.78 0.57 0.61 0.54 0.10 Freedom, Security and Justice 0.85 0.81 0.47 0.19 0.08 0.11 Energy and Transport 0.38 0.34 0.35 0.09 0.37 0.24 Education and People-to-people 0.64 0.48 0.59 0.51 0.27 0.26 Assistance 0.87 0.28 0.62 0.48 0.15 0.16
  • 11. 11 Approximation Moldova Georgia Ukraine Armenia Azerbaijan Belarus 0.67 0.63 0.57 0.57 0.49 0.37 Democracy 0.72 0.54 0.64 0.47 0.31 0.20 Rule of Law 0.61 0.63 0.60 0.51 0.42 0.23 Governance Quality 0.79 0.71 0.62 0.74 0.46 0.35 Market Economy 0.59 0.63 0.45 0.61 0.55 0.43 Freedom, Security and Justice 0.94 0.67 0.76 0.47 0.76 0.43 Energy and Transport 0.46 0.37 0.34 0.52 0.31 0.16 Environment 0.60 0.66 0.49 0.61 0.37 0.67 Education and People-to-people 0.64 0.81 0.68 0.64 0.77 0.45
  • 12. 12 Management Georgia Moldova Ukraine Armenia Azerbaijan Belarus 0.92 0.88 0.68 0.32 0.28 0.2 Coordination mechanism 1 1 0.50 0.25 0.25 0 Legal approximation mechanism 0.67 0.50 0.77 0.33 0.17 0 Participation of civil society 1 1 0.75 0.50 0 0 Management of EU assistance 1 1 0.70 0.20 0.70 0.80
  • 13. 13 Linkage vs Approximation Moldova Georgia Ukraine Armenia Azerbaijan Belarus 0.70 0.53 0.60 0.42 0.32 0.19 0.37 0.57 0.49 0.63 0.57 0.67 0.88 0.92 0.68 0.32 0.28 0.20 Trade and Economic integration / Market Economy 0.74 / 0.59 0.57 / 0.63 0.78 / 0.45 0.61 / 0.61 0.54 / 0.55 0.10 / 0.43 Freedom, Security and Justice 0.85 / 0.94 0.47 / 0.67 0.81 / 0.76 0.19 / 0.47 0.08 / 0.76 0.11 / 0.43 Energy and Transport 0.38 / 0.46 0.35 / 0.37 0.34 / 0.34 0.09 / 0.52 0.37 / 0.31 0.24 / 0.16 Education and People-to-people 0.64 / 0.64 0.59 / 0.81 0.48 / 0.68 0.51 / 0.64 0.27 / 0.77 0.26 / 0.45
  • 14. 14 Linkage vs Approximation 1 MD GE 0.70 / 0.67 0.53 / 0.63 AM 0.42 / 0.57 AZ 0.32 / 0.49 UA 0.5 0.60 / 0.57 BY 0.19 / 0.37 This scatter plot shows the relationship between Linkage and Ap- proximation for each country. It shows whether our assumption—that increased linkages and approximation mutually reinforce each other— holds true. The fitted line has been drawn to highlight this relationship. It shows the performance of a hypothetical average country in both dimensions. Thus, it is evident that Ukraine (the country located furthest away Approximation from the line) shows the worst result in Approximation relative to the depth of its linkages with the EU, while Georgia and Armenia are less linked to the EU than Ukraine and have reached comparatively high levels of Approximation. Moldova and Azerbaijan, the two countries situated closest to the line, indicate corresponding levels of Linkage and Approximation. 0 0.5 1 Linkage
  • 15. 15 Country Economic Integration,” where it is barely ahead of Azerbaijan and Belarus. This means that these areas need more atten- tion, particularly on the part of the EU, domestic performance, as Approximation scores suggest. Armenia is generally doing worse than Moldova, Georgia and Ukraine, but specific assessment not only Georgia. It is important to note that Georgia is lagging behind Armenia better than Azerbaijan and Belarus. This holds true for such areas as “Freedom, Se- in “Political Dialogue” due to the fact that curity and Justice” for Linkage, and “De- Armenia participates in peacekeeping mocracy” and “Rule of Law”. This also Below we present an explanation of the When it comes to specific sectors, how- missions with the EU and is thus more holds true for Management. findings of the Index as reflected in coun- ever, the picture is not so clear. For instance, advanced in CFSP/ESDP cooperation, Yet, Armenia has showed relatively try scores. We start with the best perform- Moldova shows high results for “Freedom, which is a part of “Political Dialogue.” good results in Linkage “Political Dia- ing country on most aspects, Moldova, Security and Justice” in both Linkage and Ukraine is the second best performer logue” and “Trade and Economic Integra- and proceed in order until we reach Be- Approximation, but a high discrepancy be- in Linkage, third best in Management, and tion,” leaving Georgia behind; “Education larus, the worst performing country. tween Linkage and Approximation where Approximation. Ukraine shows the best re- and People-to-People” and “Assistance”, Moldova is the best performer in “Education and People-to-People” is con- sults for “Political Dialogue” and “Trade leaving Ukraine behind. Linkage and Approximation and the sec- cerned: compared to other countries, Mol- and Economic Integration,” second best It also has showed relatively good re- ond best in Management. dova is the best performer for Linkage but results in “Freedom, Security and Justice” sults in Approximation, having shared the The country is very advanced in “Free- only fourth best, with Armenia, for Ap- (both Linkage and Approximation, along third position with Ukraine. This is due dom, Security and Justice” (the best in proximation. with Azerbaijan) and in “Democracy”. to high scores in “Governance Quality,” both Linkage and Approximation), “En- Georgia also performs rather well. Ukraine lags behind in “Energy and where it is third after Moldova and Geor- ergy and Transport” (the best in Linkage It is the best in Management, second best Transport” and “Education and People- gia, “Market Economy” where it is second and second best in Approximation), “Trade in Approximation after Moldova, and to-People” for both Linkage and Ap- only to Georgia, “Energy and Transport” and Economic Integration” (second after third best in Linkage, after Moldova and proximation, in “Governance Quality,” where it is the best performer, and “Envi- Ukraine), “Education and People-to-Peo- Ukraine. Given that Georgia has rela- “Market Economy,” “Environment”. Poor ronment” where it is third only to Belarus ple” (Linkage) and “Assistance.” It is also tively low scores in Linkage compared to performance in terms of “Environment,” and Georgia. the best performer in “Democracy” and Ukraine and Moldova, geographical prox- somewhat advanced than Azerbaijan, the Yet, Armenia significantly lags behind “Governance Quality” and the second best imity may be making a difference. Geor- laggard, has to do with the fact that both other countries in “Energy and Transport,” in “Rule of Law.” gia shows the best scores for “Rule of Law,” Ukraine and Azerbaijan are highly in- where it is the worst performer for Link- In general, Moldova confirms the as- “Market Economy” and “Education and dustrialized countries compared to other age, and “Freedom, Security and Justice” sumption that there is a relationship be- People-to-People” in Approximation, and countries in the EaP region. and “Education and People-to-People” for tween Linkage, Approximation and Man- the second highest score on “Assistance,” Although Ukraine had the best perfor- Approximation. agement in the sense that more and deeper after Moldova, and “Environment,” after mance in “Trade and Economic Integra- In “Energy and Transport,” Armenia links with the EU correlate with better Belarus. It seems that Georgia has done tion,” it showed poor results in “Market shows surprising results. While it is the performance at home (Approximation) well in the areas where there has been po- Economy,” leaving only Belarus behind. least developed among the countries in and better Management of European inte- litical will to reform. In general, although Ukraine seems to be Linkage here, it is the best performer in gration. Apparently, political will seems to Georgia proved less advanced only doing well in Linkage, it has not benefit- Approximation. be the key to European integration. in “Political Dialogue” and “Trade and ed from this to fullest extent to improve
  • 16. 16 Azerbaijan is the second worst per- Belarus closed our list, since it shows forming country on all three dimensions, the poorest scores on all three dimensions. coming after Belarus. It is ahead of Ar- “Environment” is the only exception: here, menia and Belarus and also Georgia only Belarus is the best performer of the six in “Freedom, Security and Justice” for Ap- countries. Interestingly, Belarus also has proximation. It is the worst performing the highest score for “Management of country in “Freedom, Security and Justice” EU assistance.” Centralized management for Approximation, “Assistance” and “En- seems to be the factor at play here. No- vironment.” Yet, Azerbaijan is the second tably, the level of EU assistance to Belar- best performer in “Energy and Transport” us, as well as Azerbaijan, is considerably for Linkage and “Education and People- below the level of other EaP countries. to-People” for Approximation.
  • 17. 17 Moldova 0.70 Linkage 0.67 Approximation 0.88 Management 0.75 Political dialogue 0.72 Democracy 1 Coordination mechanism 0.74 Trade and Economic integration 0.61 Rule of Law 0.50 Legal approximation mechanism 0.85 Freedom, Security and Justice 0.79 Governance Quality 1 Participation of civil society 0.38 Energy and Transport 0.59 Market Economy 1 Management of EU assistance 0.64 Education and People-to-people 0.94 Freedom, Security and Justice 0.87 Assistance 0.46 Energy and Transport 0.60 Environment 0.64 Education and People-to-people
  • 18. 18 Georgia 0.53 Linkage 0.63 Approximation 0.92 Management 0.56 Political dialogue 0.54 Democracy 1 Coordination mechanism 0.57 Trade and Economic integration 0.63 Rule of Law 0.67 Legal approximation mechanism 0.47 Freedom, Security and Justice 0.71 Governance Quality 1 Participation of civil society 0.35 Energy and Transport 0.63 Market Economy 1 Management of EU assistance 0.59 Education and People-to-people 0.67 Freedom, Security and Justice 0.62 Assistance 0.37 Energy and Transport 0.66 Environment 0.81 Education and People-to-people
  • 19. 19 Ukraine 0.60 Linkage 0.57 Approximation 0.68 Management 0.94 Political dialogue 0.64 Democracy 0.50 Coordination mechanism 0.78 Trade and Economic integration 0.60 Rule of Law 0.77 Legal approximation mechanism 0.81 Freedom, Security and Justice 0.62 Governance Quality 0.75 Participation of civil society 0.34 Energy and Transport 0.45 Market Economy 0.70 Management of EU assistance 0.48 Education and People-to-people 0.76 Freedom, Security and Justice 0.28 Assistance 0.34 Energy and Transport 0.49 Environment 0.68 Education and People-to-people
  • 20. 20 Armenia 0.42 Linkage 0.57 Approximation 0.32 Management 0.64 Political dialogue 0.47 Democracy 0.25 Coordination mechanism 0.61 Trade and Economic integration 0.51 Rule of Law 0.33 Legal approximation mechanism 0.19 Freedom, Security and Justice 0.74 Governance Quality 0.50 Participation of civil society 0.09 Energy and Transport 0.61 Market Economy 0.20 Management of EU assistance 0.51 Education and People-to-people 0.47 Freedom, Security and Justice 0.48 Assistance 0.52 Energy and Transport 0.61 Environment 0.64 Education and People-to-people
  • 21. 21 Azerbaijan 0.32 Linkage 0.49 Approximation 0.28 Management 0.50 Political dialogue 0.31 Democracy 0.25 Coordination mechanism 0.54 Trade and Economic integration 0.42 Rule of Law 0.17 Legal approximation mechanism 0.08 Freedom, Security and Justice 0.46 Governance Quality 0 Participation of civil society 0.37 Energy and Transport 0.55 Market Economy 0.70 Management of EU assistance 0.27 Education and People-to-people 0.76 Freedom, Security and Justice 0.15 Assistance 0.31 Energy and Transport 0.37 Environment 0.77 Education and People-to-people
  • 22. 22 Belarus 0.19 Linkage 0.37 Approximation 0.20 Management 0.28 Political dialogue 0.20 Democracy 0 Coordination mechanism 0.10 Trade and Economic integration 0.23 Rule of Law 0 Legal approximation mechanism 0.11 Freedom, Security and Justice 0.35 Governance Quality 0 Participation of civil society 0.24 Energy and Transport 0.43 Market Economy 0.80 Management of EU assistance 0.26 Education and People-to-people 0.43 Freedom, Security and Justice 0.16 Assistance 0.16 Energy and Transport 0.67 Environment 0.45 Education and People-to-people
  • 23. 23 Sector Democracy Where elections are concerned, none of the six countries fully meets the stan- and Belarus, but these countries suffer from monopolized legislatures. specific assessment dards of democratic elections assumed by the Index. The quality of elections is sig- As far as the accountability of lawmak- ers is concerned, the absence of pluralist nificantly higher in Moldova and Ukraine legislatures in Azerbaijan and Belarus than in Georgia, which, in turn, is clearly reflects the weak rights and capacities of Political dialogue ahead of Armenia, Azerbaijan and Be- these legislatures in relation to the ex- larus. The greatest weakness is the lack of ecutive branch. The legislature in Belarus The intensiveness of political dialogue here for the lack of official political dia- fair electoral campaigns, but in Azerbaijan lacks any rights that might ensure it and seems to depend significantly on the in- logue due to the activities of its opposition. and Belarus electoral laws and the actual its members some institutional indepen- stitutional structure envisaged by the Ukraine is the frontrunner where organization of elections are also clearly dence, and its president can even appoint Partnership and Cooperation Agreement CFSP/ESDP cooperation is concerned, deficient. In contrast, Ukraine and Mol- a share of the members of the Savet Re- for each EaP country. From this per- participating in a number of security ar- dova have reasonably fair and accepted spubliki at his discretion. Moldova’s Con- spective, Ukraine, which has the annual rangements and peacekeeping missions. electoral norms. Ukraine’s electoral man- stitution endows its legislature with the summits and the largest number of sub- Moldova lags far behind, together with agement is less effective and its legitimacy most far-reaching powers to hold the ex- committees—seven, compared to a maxi- other EaP countries, in having almost no more contested than in Moldova. The pat- ecutive accountable, including the power mum of four in other EaP countries— cooperation in this field—although Ar- tern of deficiencies is different in Armenia to elect and dismiss the president and the naturally takes the lead. Since Belarus menia does participate in a Kosovo mis- and Georgia, as these two countries orga- premier. Moldova is also the only EaP has no PCA with the EU and the official sion. nize elections comparatively well, but their country that allocates chairs and seats of bilateral agenda is limited, even frozen The Eastern Partnership has offered all electoral rules and campaigns are less fair, parliamentary committees to opposition following the 2010 presidential election, EaP countries a more advanced level of di- particularly in Armenia. parties on the basis of their share of seats, Belarus effectively has no ongoing politi- alogue. Since their representatives are in- With respect to political competition, enabling the opposition to influence the cal dialogue with the EU. cluded in the EaP multilateral institutions, Ukraine and Moldova have the most com- agenda of legislative debates. Interestingly, the intensiveness of its added value has been an opportunity to petitive political systems, as indicated by All other countries have directly elect- high level bilateral visits and cooperation expand contacts with EU member states the vote differentials between incumbent ed presidents, but Ukraine, Georgia and with European political parties that have at different levels and on different issues. presidents and parties and the opposition, Armenia have demonstrated that this groups in the European Parliament indi- In terms of political dialogue, Belarus has the legislative activism of the opposition constitutional option does not necessar- cate that Georgia, Moldova, and Ukraine probably benefited the most among EaP and the cohesion of parliamentary groups. ily mean marginalizing the legislature, as are the frontrunners. This suggests that countries, since EaP institutions have in- Although Georgia’s legislature is more they have provided significant powers to the countries that have membership aspi- cluded the country in cooperation with competitive than Armenia’s, the most re- their assemblies. Still, legislatures in all rations are interested in having intensive the EU. Its officials and civil servants take cent presidential races in both countries six EaP countries lack resources, such as dialogue with the EU and, in return, the part in meetings of EaP institutions. Eu- have been clearly dominated by incum- policy experts who might help opposition EU is also more interested in these coun- ronest, the parliamentary arm of the EaP, bents. In contrast, presidential elections parties challenge the policy expertise of tries. Belarus may somewhat compensate for political reasons, is the only exception. have been more competitive in Azerbaijan ministries and prepare substantiated bills.
  • 24. 24 Rule of Law appointment and promotion decisions, service, regular performance reviews and turnover on average over 2007-2010 and but this step requires that incumbent proper professional development systems ranking 23rd among EU trading partners. Moldova and Georgia have imple- judges be of exceptional personal integrity for their staff. Armenia has the lowest share of EU trade mented the most rules and procedures and not abuse their immunity to violate In developing institutions for policy turnover and ranks 108th. guaranteeing an independent and profes- the law. Protecting functional immu- formulation and coordination, Moldova The breakdown of EaP country exports sional judiciary. However, even these two nity while maintaining accountability is is far ahead of the other EaP countries, and imports from and to the EU differs leading countries have been unable to en- a problem that has not been adequately since its government has, amongst oth- significantly. Firstly, EaP exports to the sure that the appointment, promotion and solved in most EaP countries. ers, put together detailed administrative EU are dominated by raw materials and dismissal of judges is only guided by pro- procedures for processing and evaluating unfinished products, like energy and met- fessional standards and protected against policies. In contrast, Belarus and even als, while the countries import mostly fi- political influences. These selection proce- Governance quality Ukraine lag behind the Caucasian coun- nal products from the EU. Only Moldova dures emerged as the weakest links in EaP tries, lacking, for example, bodies to coor- shows a high—over 50%—share of final country judicial systems, although judicial Public administration in Moldova and, dinate cross-sectoral policies. products in exports to the EU, largely tex- powers are relatively well respected and to a lesser extent, Armenia comes closest tiles and clothing. For other EaP countries, enforced in most of the countries, except to the standards of impartiality and pro- shares vary between 0 and 15%. Exports for Belarus and Azerbaijan. Azerbaijan fessionalism defined in our survey. As for Trade and Economic of machinery and transport equipment to also has particularly weak or dysfunc- the judicial systems, personnel decisions integration the EU occupy noticeable share only for tional procedures to achieve accountable emerge as the weakest link in public ad- two EaP countries, namely Ukraine, with and transparent judicial decision-making. ministration for all countries, even though Trade in Goods1: As things are 10.9% of total exports in 2010, and Mol- Ukraine lags behind Georgia due to its the legal and institutional frameworks of As the largest regional market, the EU dova, with 8.3%. The highest shares of raw less impartial appointment, promotion civil service administration are relatively plays an important role in trade in goods material exports to the EU are from Azer- and dismissal procedures and due to the well developed in many of them. The with all the EaP countries. In 2010, it was baijan, with 99.5% of total exports, and weak protection of judges against harass- situation in Belarus appears to be most the №1 trading partner in both exports Georgia, 86.9%, also due to the export of ment, assault and even assassination. removed from a professional and impar- and imports of goods for all EaP countries energy. None of the six countries can be said to tial public bureaucracy, while Azerbaijan except for Belarus.2 EaP trade turnover By contrast, EaP country imports guarantee a judicial deliberation protected scores comparatively well and outperforms with the EU varies between 30% and 50% from the EU are dominated by finished from undue influences by senior judges, even Ukraine with its much more compet- of total trade, with the highest EU share products—40–70% of the total—, espe- private interests or other branches of gov- itive political system and better rule of law seen in Moldova and the lowest in Belarus cially machinery and vehicles. The EU has ernment. Most countries also lack a judi- record. The main cause for this placement and Georgia. played an important role in modernizing cial self-governing body with a majority of is Ukraine’s weak standards of recruitment, By contrast, EaP countries play a the EaP economies, supplying capital members elected by judges that has a deci- promotion and disciplinary procedures. In very modest role as EU trading partners. products and the organizational know- sive influence on the career paths of judges. contrast with Ukraine, Azerbaijan and Ukraine has been the largest trading part- how associated with them. Establishing this element of judicial Armenia operate, among others, consis- ner for the EU among the EaP countries, self-government is key to depoliticizing tent recruitment practices across the civil accounting for only 1.2% of EU trade 1 Reliable and comparable statistics on trade in services, as well as investment, appears to be unavailable. 2 Trade turnover with the EU is second to the Russian Federation, with which Belarus has signed a Customs Union Agreement
  • 25. 25 Trade policy Azerbaijan enjoys zero duty on virtually tend to have higher average duty on farm of DCFTA talks is expected to be non- Most EaP countries enjoy some prefer- all its products, mostly because energy products, compared to industrial goods. tariff barriers to commodity trade and ential access to the EU market, either un- products almost entirely dominate its ex- Trade protection measures have been trade in services, and other trade-related der the Generalized System of Preferences ports basket. rarely used in trade between the EU and topics like intellectual property rights, (GSP)4 or the GSP+5 and Autonomous Ukraine has to pay duty on more prod- EaP countries. Ukraine accounts for the competition policy, state procurement, Trade Preferences (ATP). These prefer- ucts than any other EaP country. This is majority of currently registered cases. the environment, and dispute settlement ences are non-reciprocal and are provided due to the nature of the country’s exports These measures were adopted mostly a mechanisms. In tariff negotiations, access by the EU to developing countries with and the relatively high share of ‘sensitive’ decade ago, that is, before the EU grant- for agricultural products to EU markets is the primary aim of contributing to pov- products. Also, Ukraine’s exports exceed ed Ukraine market economy status, and highly sensitive on both sides of the table. erty alleviation, sustainable development 1% of the total GSP-covered imports, Ukraine became the member of the WTO. The deep institutional reforms embed- and good governance in these countries. while its GSP-covered imports are not No new measures against the Ukrainian ded in implementing the DCFTAs make All EaP countries except for Belarus sufficiently concentrated, preventing the exports have been implemented recently. impact assessment a challenging exercise. are eligible for the GSP. Preferences to country from being classified as ‘vulner- Databases and measurement techniques Belarus were temporary withdrawn in De- able.’ 6 As a result, Ukraine is not eligible Towards DCFTA? need further elaboration. In particular, a cember 2006 in response to systematic and for the more generous preferences provid- As part of the European Neighbour- comprehensive statistical database for serious violations of the core principles of ed within the GSP+, either. hood Policy and Eastern Partnership, trade in services is needed between the the International Labour Organization. The actual level of tariff protection the EU is working to establish Deep EU and its partner countries. Three EaP countries—Armenia, Azer- faced by EaP countries in the EU is de- and Comprehensive Free Trade Areas baijan and Georgia—are eligible for the termined by the EU Import Tariff Sched- (DCFTA) with all EaP countries. Ne- GSP+. Moldova was formally removed ule, eligibility for existing preferential gotiations on this part of the Association Market Economy from the list of GSP beneficiaries as it be- schemes—GSP, GSP+ and others—, bi- Agreement have been underway with came entitled to ATPs above the level of lateral agreements, and the country’s com- Ukraine since 2008. With Armenia, Mol- In assessing domestic economic perfor- GSP+ as of March 2008. ATPs give Mol- modity structure. dova, and Georgia these negotiations are mance, we focused on the quality of the dova unlimited and duty-free access to the Among EaP countries, Belarusian ex- expected to begin in the near future. The business climate in the countries and their EU market for all products originating in porters face the highest level of protection remaining two EaP countries, Belarus and transition progress as widely-used indica- Moldova, except for certain agricultural in the EU, followed by Ukraine, while Azerbaijan, are not yet WTO members, tors for international economic compari- products. Moldova’s exporters face the lowest. EU but they are negotiating accession. The sons, not affected by country size, specific Thanks to continuous EU trade liber- exporters have to deal with the highest DCFTA negotiations can only come after factors, and short-term shocks. In particu- alization efforts and the flexible system duty in Belarus, based on the reciprocity accession. lar, we used two sets of indices produced of trade preferences, over 80% of EaP principle, and in Azerbaijan. The lowest Given the fairly liberal duty regime by the World Bank Doing Business and country products effectively enter the import duty on EU products is applied in applied in commodity trade between the the EBRD Transition Reports. EU market without paying import duty. Georgia. Both the EU and EaP countries EU and EaP countries, the natural focus A number of conclusions can be drawn 4 The GSP is an autonomous trade arrangement through which the EU provides non-reciprocal preferential access to the EU market. The system allows exporters from developing countries to pay lower duties on some or all of what they sell to the EU. It envisages duty-free access for non-sensitive products, and a reduction in import duties for sensitive products. See details at http://ec.europa.eu/trade/wider-agenda/develop- ment/generalised-system-of-preferences/ 5 The GSP is an autonomous trade arrangement through which the EU provides non-reciprocal preferential access to the EU market. The system allows exporters from developing countries to pay lower duties on some or all of what they sell to the EU. It envisages duty-free access for non-sensitive products, and a reduction in import duties for sensitive products. See details at http://ec.europa.eu/trade/wider-agenda/develop- ment/generalised-system-of-preferences/ 6 See definition and list of eligible countries at http://trade.ec.europa.eu/doclib/docs/2008/july/tradoc_139963.pdf
  • 26. 26 from the analysis. According to WB’s the EU, partly determined by the size of may encourage countries to proceed with launched institutional cooperation with Doing Business, Georgia enjoys the best the country, but its business climate is crucial reforms in combating corruption the EU in FSJ back in 2002, when the business climate among the EaP countries, the worst of the lot. Still, once a business and organized crime, fighting illegal mi- first EU-Ukraine Action Plan on “Free- followed by Belarus. The worst business climate improves, it further boosts invest- gration and human trafficking, and stimu- dom, Security and Justice” was signed— climate is reportedly in Ukraine. ments and trade between the parties. late reforms aimed at better protection of and updated in 2007. In the case of Mol- Four of the six EaP countries—Arme- human rights, more effective law enforce- dova, there was no separate document on nia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Georgia—have ment and a transparent judiciary. the matter and structured cooperation was organized quick start-up procedures for Freedom, Security The specific “carrot” in the FSJ coop- launched under the EU-Moldova ENP business, both in terms of time and fees, and Justice eration with EaP countries is visa liberali- Action Plan signed in 2005. effectively allowing free entry on their sation, which is expected to stimulate and Both Ukraine and Moldova have al- markets. At the same time, all six coun- The leaders, Ukraine and Moldova, are guide important reforms aimed at making ready almost completed negotiations on tries throw up obstacles for business clo- at about the same level of FSJ cooperation these countries safer for both their own the chapter on Justice, Liberty and Se- sure, thus preventing free market exit (an- with the EU, although Moldova is appar- citizens and foreign partners. curity in the framework of official talks other basic principle of market economy). ently doing better where Approximation of At the same time, FSJ cooperation can on the Association Agreements that will Armenia demonstrates the best result, FSJ is concerned. Ukraine took the lead raise certain risks when it comes to rela- replace their PCAs. while Ukraine shows the worst. for a long time, while Moldova made tions with authoritarian and repressive re- For a long time, especially after the Or- Paying taxes is cumbersome in all of steps to catch up and even moved ahead gimes, as it happens with Belarusian Ales ange Revolution in late 2004, Ukraine was the EaP countries, with Georgia being the after its change of government in 2009. Bialiatski, Chair of the Viasna Human seen as a pioneer in FSJ. It was the first least so. Both time-consuming procedures Meanwhile, Georgia has had more success Rights Centre. In August 2011, Mr. Biali- among EaP countries to sign the Visa Fa- and high tax rates cause problems. in combating corruption and organized atski was detained by Belarusian authori- cilitation Agreement (VFA) and a Read- All EaP countries have relatively good crime, where it outperforms the leaders. ties on charges of tax evasion as a result of mission Agreement (2007). Then the pro- standing in contract enforcement. Armenia and Azerbaijan have a substan- information provided by Lithuanian and cess was synchronized with Moldova and The EBRD Transition Indicators show tially shorter record of institutional FSJ Polish governments on a matter presented the Western Balkans and all agreements that all EaP countries have room for im- cooperation with the EU and weaker po- by Minsk as “combating money-launder- entered into force as of January 2008. provement in the majority of areas. The litical will. In the case of Belarus, obvious ing.” This case clearly demonstrate the Georgia signed such documents with corporate sector and certain infrastructure political limitations dominate. way FSJ cooperation may be misused and the EU in June 2010, while the negotia- sectors are currently the most developed. FSJ cooperation between the EU and even used against the purpose for which tions with Armenia and Azerbaijan are to At the same time, further regulatory ef- EaP countries is an issue of high impor- it has been designed. So, FSJ cooperation be launched in the near future. forts need to be devoted to developing the tance, as it indicates the level of integra- cannot be assessed automatically with a The European Commission also re- financial and energy sectors. tion/cooperation in the most sensitive quantitative approach and actual capacity ceived a mandate for VFA and readmission There seems to be no direct link be- areas, which require a high confidence of a partner to cooperate on the basis of talks with Belarus. Despite almost frozen tween “Trade and Economic Integration” between partners. FSJ cooperation is democracy, respect for human rights and relations, the Council of Foreign Minis- with the EU, on the one hand, and “Mar- closely connected with the maturity of rule of law should by considered. ters stressed the importance of promot- ket Economy,” on the other. For instance, democratic institutions and rule of law. As mentioned, Ukraine and Moldo- ing people-to-people contacts between Ukraine has the largest trade value with Increasing standards of FSJ cooperation va are the leaders of the group. Ukraine Belarus and the EU on January 31, 2011.
  • 27. 27 At the same time, the EU has imposed Member States are currently in effect has been confirmed in numerous indepen- litical will to reform is stronger in the case visa restrictions on some 200 Belarusian in Ukraine, which is the largest number dent studies, such as Transparency Inter- of Moldova. Georgia is the more obvious officials involved in political repression among EaP countries. national’s Corruption Perception Index, success story in such key areas as combat- following the presidential elections in Currently, no EaP country has en- which gave Georgia the best score, 3.8, ing corruption and organized crime. The December 2010. forced operational agreements with Eu- among all the EaP countries in 2010. By more modest success of Armenia and Ukraine unilaterally cancelled visa re- ropol or Eurojust. Ukraine and Moldova contrast, Ukraine and Azerbaijan were at Azerbaijan is due to a substantially shorter quirements for EU citizens in 2005, with have only signed framework agreements the bottom, with 2.4, Belarus was margin- record of institutional FSJ cooperation Moldova and Georgia following suit sev- with Europol. ally better at 2.5, Armenia similarly at 2.6, with the EU, as well as to weaker Euro- eral months later. Armenia and Azerbai- In border management, only Ukraine and Moldova a still-distant 2.9.8 pean aspirations in these countries. In the jan continue to practice a symmetric visa and Moldova have Working Arrange- Ukraine and Moldova, although case of Belarus, political risks place serious policy approach. Azerbaijan even tough- ments with FRONTEX, as well as valu- frontrunners on most aspects of FSJ, are limitations on existing opportunities. ened its visa policies as it cancelled visas able practical cooperation with EUBAM, considered countries of origin for illegal at borders. the EU Border Assistance Mission. migration to the EU more than other In October 2009, Ukraine was the first Ukraine, Georgia, Moldova and Arme- EaP countries. The government of Mol- Energy and Transport country to start an official Visa Dialogue, nia have all implemented an integrated dova proved the most willing to cooperate with the ultimate goal of visa-free travel border management concept in domestic comprehensively with the EU in migra- Energy regime. Moldova launched its dialogue in legislation, while the first three have also tion and asylum. Meanwhile, Belarus and Where energy is concerned, the EaP June 2010, while other EaP countries can put together the necessary Action Plans Azerbaijan are source countries of asylum- Index analyzes the extent to which the do so after full implementation of VFAs or implementation strategy. These three seekers, but cooperation with them is lim- energy markets of EaP countries are inte- and Readmission Agreements. countries are obviously ahead of other ited for political reasons. grated with and organized similarly to EU Ukraine signed its Action Plan on Visa three EaP partners in efforts to reform Ukraine is the most advanced where energy markets. Since the issues of energy Liberalisation (APVL) in November 2010. border security structures into a Europe- border management is concerned, while sector and energy policy receive a lot of Moldova did likewise in January 2011. an-style border force. the relative success of Moldova is re- attention in EU policy towards EaP coun- The initial period of APVL implementa- Moldova can be considered as the stricted by the Transnistrian conflict: tries, the Index looks at energy market tion showed that this new instrument was “laboratory” of new initiatives such as the 450 km of the country’s border is out of regulation and the market structure of the an effective tool to mobilize both coun- Mobility Partnership, since 2008, and the control of the central government. Geor- EaP countries in terms of EU standards. tries’ governments to proceed with impor- Common Visa Application Centre, since gia, Azerbaijan and Armenia have similar Our analysis of trade in energy includ- tant legislation, including ratification of 20077. In 2011, Moldova became the first problems—“frozen conflicts” and hostile ed mineral fuels, mineral oils and products CoE and UN conventions, in such areas EaP country to stop issuing non-biomet- relations with some neighbours. of their distillation9. Foreign direct invest- as integrated border management, data ric passports to its citizens and is now is- To sum up, Moldova and Ukraine are ment in trade was excluded from the ana- protection, countering human trafficking suing only biometric, ICAO-compliant at about the same level of FSJ cooperation lysis due to unavailability of reliable and and illegal migration, protecting refugees passports. with the EU, with Moldova being some- comparable data. The results show that and asylum-seekers, and so on. Yet, Georgia is the more obvious suc- what in the lead. Ukraine’s success is due Azerbaijan is significantly ahead of other 13 cooperation agreements on judi- cess story in such key areas as combating to the longer formal record of cooperation EaP countries in export of energy, while cial cooperation and assistance with EU corruption and organized crime. This fact with the EU in this field, whereas the po- Moldova and Georgia in import of energy. 7 Moldova’s Foreign Policy Statewatch, Issue 30, July 2011, http://www.viitorul.org/public/3466/en/Policy%20Statewatch30_en.pdf 8 Corruption Perception Index 2010 Results http://www.transparency.org/policy_research/surveys_indices/cpi/2010/results 9 Article 27 of United Nations Commodity Trade Statistics Database.
  • 28. 28 For now, EaP countries are only at the responsibility for fair and non-discrimina- and EaP countries. Belarus, who are both larger and closer to initial stage of integration with the EU tory pricing. Moreover, energy markets in So far, EaP countries have not demon- the EU. in energy, partly due to the institutional EaP countries remain highly monopolized, strated much success in pursuing deeper In terms of the regulatory environment, weakness of EaP country energy markets, which hampers competition, transparency integration with the common trans- Azerbaijan and Moldova rank high, with especially in terms of secure energy policy, and the general efficiency of the sector. port corridors of the EU, in particular in Georgia a close third. Ukraine has the internal market competition and energy Unlike the EU, EaP countries are aviation and maritime transport. Only worst record: while it has allowed third- commodity and investment turnover with less dependent on energy imports, since Georgia has signed an agreement on a party access to its marine port and airport the EU. To a lesser extent, this also has to many of them have domestic resources Common Aviation Area, although Mol- infrastructure and unbundled different do with the fact that the EU’s energy mar- and different primary energy consump- dova finalized the talks in October and business activities there, it has not estab- ket has been constantly moving towards tion patterns. Nevertheless, EaP countries Ukraine still in talks to join as well. When lished an independent transport regulator higher standards, which makes it difficult consume twice as much energy as the EU this happens, it will be advantageous for and has not reduced state influence. Bela- for EaP countries to catch up. Objective standard due to the high energy intensity all sides because of better quality and rus has the weakest regulatory environ- reasons—historical, geographical and of their economics and inefficient energy more reasonably priced aviation services. ment in terms of EU standards. geopolitical—also account for differences sectors. Their efforts in developing re- All the EaP countries are located along When it comes to road safety, Georgia among EaP countries in cooperation with newables, adopting CO2 Emission Trad- transport corridors between the EU and has been the worst performer, though this the EU. ing Scheme and CO2 emission reduction Russia and Asian countries. Consequently, can be attributed to its complicated terrain. Energy legislation in EaP countries targets, and so on, have been quite weak. they occupy a very advantageous transit In general, all EaP countries demonstrate largely fails to meet the requirements Only Ukraine and Armenia have defined position, in particular Ukraine, which has poor transport safety, which means that all of the EU and Energy Community in National RES targets as guidelines in their the largest number of international trans- of them have to work hard to improve this South-Eastern Europe. Only Ukraine national energy policy. EaP countries have port corridors that are priorities for the aspect of their transport system. and Moldova are members of the Energy relatively high CO2 emission levels, gener- EU’s transport system. However, trans- It can be argued that all the countries Community and have taken on strict ob- ated primarily by coal-fired power genera- port companies from Belarus and Mol- under consideration are at a different ligations to meet EU legal requirements, tion. This means they have to work hard dova obtain relatively significant numbers progress level in transport integration and while Georgia has observer status. Yet, few to reach even today’s level of energy and of permits to enter the EU, compared to harmonization with the EU and the ef- relevant reforms have taken place. For in- carbon emission efficiency in the EU. It is Ukraine. Armenia, Azerbaijan and Geor- forts of Moldova and the three Caucasus stance, only three countries adopted some expected that the latter aspect will play an gia do not have a common land border countries are noteworthy. of the legislation demanded by the EU to increasingly dominant role in the EU and and are therefore disadvantaged in terms regulate the gas market (Ukraine), elec- will be demanded of non-EU countries of integration with the EU’s land trans- tricity market (Armenia and Moldova) wanting to integrate into the EU’s energy port system. Nevertheless, they have made Environment and renewables (Armenia). Other impor- market. significant efforts in recent years to im- tant issues remain uncovered. prove the quality of their transport infra- Armenia, Ukraine and Moldova are In terms of the standards for organiz- Transport structure and customs procedures. As a leading in terms of policy, where envi- ing the EU’s internal gas market, EaP Where transport is concerned, the un- result, despite their more disadvantageous ronmental protection has a crosscutting countries are far behind. Only Moldova, derlying idea is that transport connections geographic placement, they are more ad- nature—environmental policy integra- Georgia and Armenia have an indepen- should be smoother, safer and more reli- vanced in terms of infrastructure, which tion (EPI)—, as demanded by the EU. dent regulator on their energy market with able for all transport users from the EU allows them to compete with Ukraine and Although Ukraine recently adopted new