Risk Matrix, Definition, Theory and Practice (B - Exercise) / DRM Series / Bijan Yavar

‫رﻳﺴﻚ‬ ‫ﻣﺎﺗﺮﻳﺲ‬ ‫و‬ ‫ﻣﺪﻳﺮﻳﺖ‬ ‫ﻣﺒﺎﻧﻲ‬ ‫و‬ ‫اﺻﻮل‬
‫ﺧﻄﺮﭘﺬﻳﺮي‬ ‫ﻣﺎﺗﺮﻳﺲ‬)‫رﻳﺴﻚ‬(‫ﻋﻤﻞ‬ ‫و‬ ‫ﺗﺌﻮري‬ ،‫ﺗﻌﺮﻳﻒ‬ ،
‫دوره‬ ‫اﺳﺘﺎد‬:‫ﻳﺎور‬ ‫ﺑﻴﮋن‬ ‫ﻣﻬﻨﺪس‬
‫ﻣﺪﻳﺮﻳﺖ‬ ‫دﻛﺘﺮاي‬ ‫داﻧﺸﺠﻮي‬ ‫و‬ ‫ﺗﺤﻘﻴﻘﺎت‬ ‫دﺳﺘﻴﺎر‬)‫رﻳﺴﻚ‬ ‫ﻣﺪﻳﺮﻳﺖ‬ ‫ﮔﺮاﻳﺶ‬(‫ﺗﺠﺎري‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻮم‬ ‫داﻧﺸﻜﺪه‬ ،(GSB)‫ﻣﺎﻟﺰي‬ ‫ﻣﻠﻲ‬ ‫داﻧﺸﮕﺎه‬(UKM)
‫ﻣﺪﻳﺮﻳﺖ‬ ‫ﺗﻮﺳﻌﻪ‬ ‫ﺗﺤﻘﻴﻘﺎت‬ ‫و‬ ‫ﻋﺎﻟﻲ‬ ‫آﻣﻮزش‬ ‫ﻣﺮﻛﺰ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻤﻲ‬ ‫ﻫﻴﺎت‬ ‫ﻋﻀﻮ‬
‫آﻓﺮﻳﻘﺎ‬ ‫ﺟﻨﻮب‬ ‫ﻛﺸﻮرﻫﺎي‬ ‫ﺑﺤﺮان‬ ‫ﻣﺪﻳﺮﻳﺖ‬ ‫اﻧﺴﺘﻴﺘﻮ‬ ‫ﻫﻤﻜﺎر‬ ‫ﻋﻀﻮ‬)‫رﺳﻤﻲ‬ ‫ﻣﺠﻮز‬ ‫ﺷﻤﺎره‬ ‫ﺑﺎ‬1834(
‫ﺑﺤﺮان‬ ‫ﻣﺪﻳﺮﻳﺖ‬ ‫ﻣﺒﺎﺣﺚ‬ ‫ﻣﺠﻤﻮﻋﻪ‬ ‫از‬–‫ﺳﻪ‬ ‫درس‬)‫ب‬-‫ﺗﻤﺮﻳﻦ‬(

‫ت‬ â)‫ع‬(
à‫أ‬ ‫إ‬‫و‬َ à‫أ‬ àَ à‫أ‬ 9 á3'‫إ‬ ‫ا‬ é‫ر‬
‫ا‬‫ر‬
6 5 ‫ر‬‫ا‬ à‫ا‬ à4 ‫و‬ 5 4 ‫و‬ 4‫از‬‫رود‬

‫کالس‬ ‫در‬ ‫ارزيابی‬
‫کالسی‬ ‫فعاليت‬
‫در‬ ‫شرکت‬‫خطرپذيری‬ ‫ماتريس‬ ‫طراحی‬)‫ريسک‬(‫به‬ ‫آن‬ ‫ای‬ ‫رايانه‬ ‫ارائه‬ ‫و‬
‫الکترونيک‬ ‫پست‬Yavar637@gmail.com
‫پايانی‬ ‫آزمون‬

“This is a story about four people named
Everybody, Somebody, Anybody, and Nobody.
There was an important job to be done and
Everybody was sure Somebody would do it.
Anybody could have done it, but Nobody did it.
Somebody got angry because it was Everybody’s
job. Everybody thought Anybody could do it, but
Nobody realized that Everybody wouldn’t do it. It
ended up that Everybody blamed Somebody when
Nobody did what Anybody could have done”

‫نظر‬ ‫تبادل‬ ‫و‬ ‫بحث‬ ‫و‬ ‫مقدماتی‬ ‫تعارﯾف‬

‫ﭼﻴﺴﺖ؟‬ ‫ﺧﻄﺮﭘﺬﻳﺮي‬

‫رﻳﺴﻚ‬ ‫ﻳﺎ‬ ‫ﺧﻄﺮﭘﺬﻳﺮي‬ ‫اﺣﺘﻤﺎل‬(Risk)
‫از‬ ‫اي‬ ‫آﻣﻴﺰه‬ ‫و‬ ‫ﺗﺮﻛﻴﺐ‬
‫رﺧﺪاد‬ ‫ﻳﻚ‬ ‫اﺣﺘﻤﺎل‬
‫آن‬ ‫ﻣﻨﻔﻲ‬ ‫ﭘﻴﺎﻣﺪﻫﺎي‬ ‫و‬ ‫ﻋﻮاﻗﺐ‬ ‫و‬

‫ﭼﻴﺴﺖ؟‬ ‫ﺑﺤﺮان‬

‫ا‬ ‫واﻗﻌﻪ‬ ‫ﻫﺮ‬‫ي‬‫ﻛﻪ‬
‫ﻣﺎل‬ ‫و‬ ‫ﺟﺎن‬‫اﻧﺴﺎن‬‫ا‬ ‫ﮔﻮﻧﻪ‬ ‫ﺑﻪ‬ ‫را‬ ‫ﻫﺎ‬‫ي‬‫ﺑ‬ ‫ﺧﻄﺮ‬ ‫ﺑﻪ‬‫ﻴ‬‫ﺎﻧﺪازد‬
‫ﻧ‬ ‫ﻛﻪ‬‫ﻴ‬‫ﺑﻪ‬ ‫ﺎز‬‫ﻓﻮر‬ ‫اﻗﺪام‬‫ي‬‫اﺿﻄﺮار‬ ‫و‬‫ي‬‫ﺑﺎﺷﺪ‬ ‫داﺷﺘﻪ‬.
‫ﺑﺤﺮان‬

‫ﻃﺒﻴﻌﻲ‬ ‫ﻫﺎي‬ ‫ﺑﺤﺮان‬ ‫و‬ ‫ﺧﻄﺮﻫﺎ‬
‫اﺟﺘﻤﺎﻋﻲ‬ ‫ﻫﺎي‬ ‫ﺑﺤﺮان‬ ‫و‬ ‫ﻫﺎ‬ ‫ﺧﻄﺮ‬
‫ﺗﻜﻨﻮﻟﻮژﻳﻚ‬ ‫ﻫﺎي‬ ‫ﺑﺤﺮان‬ ‫و‬ ‫ﺧﻄﺮﻫﺎ‬
‫ﻫﺎ‬ ‫ﺑﺤﺮان‬ ‫و‬ ‫ﺧﻄﺮﻫﺎ‬ ‫اﻧﻮاع‬

‫ﻣﺤﺘﻤﻞ‬ ‫ﻫﺎي‬ ‫ﺑﺤﺮان‬ ‫و‬ ‫ﺧﻄﺮﻫﺎ‬ ‫ارزﻳﺎﺑﻲ‬ ‫ﻣﺎﺗﺮﻳﺲ‬

‫و‬ ‫رﻳﺴﻚ‬ ‫ﻓﺮﻣﻮل‬ ‫داﻧﻴﺪ‬ ‫ﻣﻲ‬ ‫آﻳﺎ‬‫ﺷﻜﻠﻲ‬ ‫ﭼﻪ‬ ‫آن‬ ‫رﻳﺎﺿﻲ‬ ‫ﺗﻌﺮﻳﻒ‬‫اﺳﺖ؟‬

‫رﻳﺴﻚ‬ ‫رﻳﺎﺿﻲ‬ ‫ﺗﻌﺮﻳﻒ‬–‫ﮔﻴﺮﻧﺪ‬ ‫ﻣﻲ‬ ‫ﻗﺮار‬ ‫ﻫﻢ‬ ‫ﻛﻨﺎر‬ ‫در‬ ‫ﭼﮕﻮﻧﻪ‬ ‫ﻋﻮاﻣﻞ‬ ‫و‬ ‫ﺗﻌﺎرﻳﻒ‬ ‫اﻳﻦ‬ ‫ﺷﻤﺎ‬ ‫ﻧﻈﺮ‬ ‫ﺑﻪ‬
x
=
‫آﺳﻴﺐ‬
‫ﭘﺬﻳﺮي‬
‫رﻳﺴﻚ‬
‫ﺧﻄﺮ‬
‫در‬ ‫ارزﺷﻬﺎي‬
‫رﻳﺴﻚ‬ ‫ﻣﻌﺮض‬

‫رﻳﺴﻚ‬ ‫رﻳﺎﺿﻲ‬ ‫ﺗﻌﺮﻳﻒ‬
x
=
‫آﺳﻴﺐ‬
‫ﭘﺬﻳﺮي‬
‫رﻳﺴﻚ‬
‫ﺧﻄﺮ‬
‫در‬ ‫ارزﺷﻬﺎي‬
‫رﻳﺴﻚ‬ ‫ﻣﻌﺮض‬

‫رﻳﺴﻚ‬ ‫رﻳﺎﺿﻲ‬ ‫ﺗﻌﺮﻳﻒ‬

‫خطرپذيری‬ ‫به‬ ‫نسبت‬ ‫رويکرد‬
1-‫خطرپذيری‬ ‫حذف‬)‫ريسک‬(
2-‫خطرپذيری‬ ‫کاھش‬)‫ريسک‬(
3-‫خطرپذيری‬ ‫مديريت‬)‫ريسک‬(
4-‫خطرپذيری‬ ‫انتقال‬)‫ريسک‬(
5-‫خطرپذيری‬ ‫پذيرش‬)‫ريسک‬(

‫ﭼﻴﺴﺖ؟‬ ‫رﻳﺴﻚ‬ ‫ﻣﺎﺗﺮﻳﺲ‬

‫ﺧﻄﺮﭘﺬﻳﺮي‬ ‫ﻣﺎﺗﺮﻳﺲ‬)‫رﻳﺴﻚ‬(‫ﻛﻪ‬ ‫ﮔﻮﻳﺪ‬ ‫ﻣﻲ‬ ‫ﻣﺎ‬ ‫ﺑﻪ‬:
‫ﻛﻪ‬ ‫ﺑﺪاﻧﻴﻢ‬ ‫ﺟﺎﻣﻊ‬ ‫و‬ ‫ﻳﻜﭽﺎرﭼﻪ‬ ‫ﻃﻮر‬ ‫ﺑﻪ‬
‫ﺑﺎ‬ ‫ﻣﺎ‬ ‫ﺳﺎزﻣﺎن‬ ‫و‬ ‫ﺷﺮﻛﺖ‬ ،‫اداره‬‫و‬ ‫ﻫﺎﻳﻲ‬ ‫رﻳﺴﻚ‬ ‫ﭼﻪ‬‫ﺑﺎ‬‫وﺿﻌﻴﺘﻲ‬ ‫ﭼﻪ‬‫اﺳﺖ‬ ‫ﻣﻮاﺟﻪ‬
‫اﻳﻨﻜﻪ‬ ‫و‬
‫را‬ ‫رﻳﺴﻚ‬ ‫زﻣﺎﻧﻲ‬ ‫ﭼﻪ‬ ‫ﺑﺪاﻧﻴﺪ‬‫ﺑﭙﺬﻳﺮﻳﺪ‬
‫را‬ ‫رﻳﺴﻚ‬ ‫زﻣﺎﻧﻲ‬ ‫ﭼﻪ‬ ‫ﺑﺪاﻧﻴﺪ‬ ‫ﻳﺎ‬ ‫و‬‫ﻧﭙﺬﻳﺮﻳﺪ‬
‫ﺧﻄﺮﭘﺬﻳﺮي‬ ‫ارزﻳﺎﺑﻲ‬ ‫ﺑﺮاي‬ ‫روﺷﻲ‬ ‫ﻣﺎﺗﺮﻳﺲ‬ ‫اﻳﻦ‬ ‫ﺳﺎده‬ ‫ﻋﺒﺎرت‬ ‫ﺑﻪ‬)‫رﻳﺴﻚ‬(‫ﺑﺎﺷﺪ‬ ‫ﻣﻲ‬

‫رﻳﺴﻚ‬ ‫ﻣﺎﺗﺮﻳﺲ‬ ‫ﺷﻤﺎﺗﻴﻚ‬ ‫ﻧﻤﻮدار‬
‫را‬ ‫رﻳﺴﻚ‬‫ﻧﭙﺬﻳﺮﻳﻢ‬
‫ﻫﺎﻳﻲ‬ ‫رﻳﺴﻚ‬ ‫ﭼﻪ‬
‫وﺿﻌﻴﺘﻲ‬ ‫ﭼﻪ‬ ‫ﺑﺎ‬
‫دارﻧﺪ‬ ‫وﺟﻮد‬
‫را‬ ‫رﻳﺴﻚ‬‫ﺑﭙﺬﻳﺮﻳﻢ‬

‫ﻳﻚ‬‫رﻳﺴﻚ‬ ‫ﻣﺎﺗﺮﻳﺲ‬‫اﺳﺖ‬ ‫ﮔﺮاﻓﻴﻜﻲ‬ ‫ﺳﺎده‬ ‫اﺑﺰار‬ ،
‫ﭼﻴﺴﺖ؟‬ ‫رﻳﺴﻚ‬ ‫ﻣﺎﺗﺮﻳﺲ‬ ‫ﻳﻚ‬

‫ﻏﻴﺮﻣﺤﺘﻤﻞ‬‫ﻧﺎدر‬‫ﺧﻴﻠﻲ‬‫ﻧﺎدر‬‫ﻣﺤﺘﻤﻞ‬‫ﻣﻜﺮر‬
‫ﭘﻴﺎﻣﺪﻫﺎ‬ ‫و‬ ‫ﺗﺎﺛﻴﺮات‬
‫رﺧﺪاد‬‫اﺣﺘﻤﺎل‬
‫ﺑﺤﺮاﻧﻲ‬ ‫اﻧﮕﻴﺰ‬ ‫ﻓﺎﺟﻌﻪ‬‫درك‬ ‫ﻗﺎﺑﻞ‬ ‫و‬ ‫ﻣﺤﺴﻮس‬‫ﻛﻮ‬‫ﭼﻚ‬‫ﻧﺎﭼﻴﺰ‬
‫داشته‬ ‫خاطر‬ ‫به‬
‫و‬ ‫ھا‬ ‫خانه‬ ‫که‬ ‫باشيم‬
‫نوارھای‬ ‫ھمچنينی‬
‫در‬ ‫اينکه‬ ‫و‬ ‫رنگی‬
‫گيرند‬ ‫می‬ ‫قرار‬ ‫کجا‬
‫حساسيت‬ ‫به‬ ‫بستگی‬
‫مربوطه‬ ‫کار‬ ‫و‬ ‫کسب‬
)‫از‬ ‫اعم‬:،‫صنعت‬
‫بخش‬ ‫يا‬ ‫خدمات‬
‫دارد‬ ‫کشاورزی‬(‫و‬
‫احتمال‬ ‫اھميت‬ ‫ميزان‬
‫و‬ ‫تاثيرات‬ ‫و‬ ‫رخداد‬
‫رنگی‬ ‫تنوع‬ ‫پيامدھا‬
‫قرارگيری‬ ‫نحوه‬ ‫و‬
‫نوارھای‬ ‫و‬ ‫ھا‬ ‫خانه‬
‫می‬ ‫تعيين‬ ‫را‬ ‫جدول‬
‫نمايد‬
‫ھايی‬ ‫خطرپذيری‬
‫تدابير‬ ‫به‬ ‫نياز‬ ‫که‬
‫کاھش‬ ‫و‬ ‫آمادگی‬
‫دارد‬ ‫اثرات‬
‫قبول‬ ‫قابل‬ ‫که‬
‫ھستند‬
‫يا‬ ‫بايستی‬ ‫می‬ ‫که‬
‫اھتراز‬ ‫آنھا‬ ‫از‬
‫منتقل‬ ‫يا‬ ‫نموده‬
‫گردند‬
acceptable risks not requiring
any specific preventive measure
The risks that require
preparedness and mitigation
the risks that should either be avoided or
transferred because their magnitude
is very high

،‫اﺑﺰار‬ ‫اﻳﻦ‬‫ﻓﺮآﻳﻨﺪي‬‫را‬ ‫زﻳﺮ‬ ‫ﻣﻮارد‬ ‫ﺗﺮﻛﻴﺐ‬ ‫ﺑﺮاي‬‫آورد‬ ‫ﻣﻲ‬ ‫ﻓﺮاﻫﻢ‬:
-‫ﻳﺎ‬ ‫ﺷﺎﻧﺲ‬‫رﺧﺪاد‬ ‫اﺣﺘﻤﺎل‬‫روﻳﺪاد‬ ‫ﻳﻚ‬)‫اﺧﺘﻼل‬ ‫اﺣﺘﻤﺎل‬–POF(
)‫ﺑﺎﺷﺪ‬ ‫ﻣﻲ‬ ‫ﺑﻴﻨﻲ‬ ‫ﭘﻴﺶ‬ ‫و‬ ‫ﺗﺨﻤﻴﻦ‬ ‫ﺷﻜﻞ‬ ‫ﺑﻪ‬ ‫ﻣﻌﻤﻮﻻ‬(
-‫ﭘﻴﺎﻣﺪﻫﺎ‬ ‫ﻫﺰﻳﻨﻪ‬‫روﻳﺪاد‬ ‫ﻳﻚ‬ ‫رﺧﺪاد‬ ‫ﺻﻮرت‬ ‫در‬ ،
)‫ﺑﺎﺷﺪ‬ ‫ﻣﻲ‬ ‫ﺑﻴﻨﻲ‬ ‫ﭘﻴﺶ‬ ‫و‬ ‫ﺗﺨﻤﻴﻦ‬ ‫ﺷﻜﻞ‬ ‫ﺑﻪ‬ ‫ﻣﻌﻤﻮﻻ‬(
-‫دﻫﻴﺪ‬ ‫ﻗﺮار‬ ‫ﻫﻢ‬ ‫ﻛﻨﺎر‬ ‫در‬ ‫را‬ ‫ﺑﺎﻻ‬ ‫ﻣﻮرد‬ ‫دو‬:
)‫ﻫﺰﻳﻨﻪ‬(‫رﻳﺴﻚ‬=‫اﺧﺘﻼل‬ ‫اﺣﺘﻤﺎل‬(POF)) *‫ﻫﺰﻳﻨﻪ‬(‫ﭘﻴﺎﻣﺪﻫﺎ‬

‫ﻗﺮار‬ ‫اﺳﺘﻔﺎده‬ ‫ﻣﻮرد‬ ‫روزاﻧﻪ‬ ‫ﻫﺎي‬ ‫ﮔﻴﺮي‬ ‫ﺗﺼﻤﻴﻢ‬ ‫و‬ ‫ﻫﺎ‬ ‫ﻗﻀﺎوت‬ ‫ﺑﺮاي‬ ‫را‬ ‫ﻧﻈﺮ‬ ‫ﻣﻮرد‬ ‫اﺑﺰار‬
‫دﻫﻴﺪ‬
‫اﺳﺖ‬ ‫ﺳﺮﻳﻊ‬ ‫و‬ ‫ﺳﺎده‬ ‫اﺑﺰار‬ ‫اﻳﻦ‬ ‫ﺑﺎ‬ ‫ﻛﺎر‬

‫رﻳﺴﻚ‬ ‫ﻛﻨﺘﺮل‬:‫ﻓﺮآﻳﻨﺪ‬
‫ﭘﺬﻳﺮﻓﺘﻦ‬ ‫درﺑﺮﮔﻴﺮﻧﺪه‬ ‫ﻛﺎر‬ ‫و‬ ‫ﻛﺴﺐ‬ ‫و‬ ‫زﻧﺪﮔﻲ‬ ‫در‬ ‫ﻣﻬﻢ‬ ‫ﻫﺎي‬ ‫ﺗﺼﻤﻴﻢ‬
،‫دﻫﻴﺪ‬ ‫ﻣﻲ‬ ‫ﻗﺮار‬ ‫ﻣﺪﻳﺮﻳﺖ‬ ‫ﻣﻮرد‬ ‫را‬ ‫رﻳﺴﻚ‬ ‫ﻳﻚ‬ ‫ﭼﮕﻮﻧﻪ‬ ‫اﻳﻨﻜﻪ‬ ‫و‬ ‫رﻳﺴﻚ‬
‫ﺑﺎﺷﺪ‬ ‫ﻣﻲ‬
‫رﻳﺴﻚ‬‫ﻛﻢ‬ ‫ﺑﺴﻴﺎر‬‫ﻧﻜﻨﻴﺪ‬ ‫رﻳﺰي‬ ‫ﺑﺮﻧﺎﻣﻪ‬ ‫آن‬ ‫ﺑﺮاي‬ ‫و‬ ‫ﻧﭙﺬﻳﺮﻓﺘﻪ‬ ‫را‬–‫ﻛﻪ‬ ‫ﭼﺮا‬
‫اﺳﺖ‬ ‫ﺳﺮﻣﺎﻳﻪ‬ ‫اﺗﻼف‬
‫رﻳﺴﻚ‬‫ﺣﺪ‬ ‫از‬ ‫ﺑﻴﺶ‬‫ﻧﻜﻨﻴﺪ‬ ‫رﻳﺰي‬ ‫ﺑﺮﻧﺎﻣﻪ‬ ‫آن‬ ‫ﺑﺮاي‬ ‫و‬ ‫ﻧﭙﺬﻳﺮﻓﺘﻪ‬ ‫را‬–‫ﻛﻪ‬ ‫ﭼﺮا‬
‫اﺳﺖ‬ ‫ﻗﻴﻤﺖ‬ ‫ﮔﺮان‬ ‫ﺑﺴﻴﺎر‬
‫ﺑﺎﻳﺴﺘﻲ‬ ‫ﻣﻲ‬ ‫ﺷﻤﺎ‬ ‫و‬ ‫ﻛﻨﻴﺪ‬ ‫رﻳﺰي‬ ‫ﺑﺮﻧﺎﻣﻪ‬ ‫درﺳﺖ‬ ‫را‬ ‫ﭼﻴﺰ‬ ‫ﻫﻤﻪ‬ ‫ﺑﺎﻳﺴﺘﻲ‬ ‫ﻣﻲ‬ ‫ﺷﻤﺎ‬
‫ﻧﻤﺎﻳﻴﺪ‬ ‫اﺗﺨﺎذ‬ ‫زﻣﺎﻧﻲ‬ ‫ﺗﺎﺧﻴﺮ‬ ‫ﮔﻮﻧﻪ‬ ‫ﻫﺮ‬ ‫ﺑﺪون‬ ‫ﺳﺮﻋﺖ‬ ‫ﺑﻪ‬ ‫را‬ ‫ﻫﺎ‬ ‫ﺗﺼﻤﻴﻢ‬.
‫ﻳﻚ‬ ‫ﻣﺎﻧﻨﺪ‬ ‫ﺳﺎده‬ ‫اﺑﺰاري‬‫رﻳﺴﻚ‬ ‫ﻣﺎﺗﺮﻳﺲ‬‫ﺑﻪ‬ ‫ﻛﻤﻚ‬ ‫ﺑﺮاي‬ ‫را‬‫ﻓﺮآﻳﻨﺪ‬
‫ﻧﻤﺎﻳﻴﺪ‬ ‫اﺳﺘﻔﺎده‬ ‫ﮔﻴﺮي‬ ‫ﺗﺼﻤﻴﻢ‬.

4‫رﻳﺴﻚ‬ ‫ﺧﺼﻮص‬ ‫در‬ ‫اﺳﺎﺳﻲ‬ ‫و‬ ‫اﺻﻠﻲ‬ ‫ﺳﻮال‬
‫ﻣﻴﺰان‬ ‫ﭼﻪ‬ ‫ﺗﺤﻤﻞ‬ ‫ﺗﻮان‬)‫ﺑﺮاي‬ ‫ﻫﺰﻳﻨﻪ‬(‫رﻳﺴﻚ‬‫ﺑﺎﺷﻴﺪ؟‬ ‫ﻣﻲ‬ ‫دارا‬ ‫را‬
‫ﺳﺮﻧﺦ‬:‫ﻣﺠﻮز‬ ‫ﻣﺤﺪودﻳﺖ‬ ‫ﺑﻪ‬SAP‫ﺑﻴﺎﻧﺪازﻳﺪ‬ ‫ﻧﮕﺎﻫﻲ‬ ‫ﺧﻮد‬
‫اﺧﺘﻼل‬ ‫اﺣﺘﻤﺎل‬*(POF)‫ﭼﻴﺴﺖ؟‬
‫ﺳﺮﻧﺦ‬:‫ﻧﻤﺎﻳﻴﺪ‬ ‫اﺳﺘﻔﺎده‬ ‫ﻣﻬﻨﺪﺳﻲ‬ ‫ﻣﻨﺎﺳﺐ‬ ‫ﻫﺎي‬ ‫ﮔﻴﺮي‬ ‫ﺗﺼﻤﻴﻢ‬ ‫و‬ ‫ﻫﺎ‬ ‫ﻗﻀﺎوت‬ ‫از‬
)‫ﻫﺎي‬ ‫ﻫﺰﻳﻨﻪ‬(‫ﭘﻴﺎﻣﺪﻫﺎي‬‫ﭼﻴﺴﺖ‬ ‫رﺧﺪاد‬ ‫ﻳﻚ‬
‫ﺳﺮﻧﺦ‬:‫ﻛﻨﻴﺪ‬ ‫ﺑﻴﺎن‬ ‫ﻣﺎﻟﻲ‬ ‫واﺣﺪ‬ ‫ﺑﻪ‬
‫ﺷﻮد‬ ‫ﻣﻲ‬ ‫ﮔﻨﺠﺎﻧﺪه‬ ‫ﻋﺒﺎرت‬ ‫ﻳﻚ‬ ‫در‬ ‫ﭼﮕﻮﻧﻪ‬ ‫ﻣﻮرد‬ ‫دو‬ ‫اﻳﻦ‬
‫ﺳﺮﻧﺦ‬) :‫ﺑﺮاي‬ ‫ﻫﺰﻳﻨﻪ‬(‫رﻳﺴﻚ‬=‫اﺧﺘﻼل‬ ‫اﺣﺘﻤﺎل‬(POF)) *‫ﻫﺎي‬ ‫ﻫﺰﻳﻨﻪ‬(‫ﭘﻴﺎﻣﺪﻫﺎ‬
*POF=‫اﺧﺘﻼل‬ ‫اﺣﺘﻤﺎل‬=‫ﺑﻴﻦ‬ ‫ﻋﺪدي‬0)‫اﻓﺘﺪ‬ ‫ﻧﻤﻲ‬ ‫اﺗﻔﺎق‬ ‫وﻗﺖ‬ ‫ﻫﻴﭻ‬ ‫ﻛﻪ‬(‫و‬1)‫اﻓﺘﺪ‬ ‫ﻣﻲ‬ ‫اﺗﻔﺎق‬ ‫ﻛﻪ‬(‫ﺑﺎﺷﺪ‬ ‫ﻣﻲ‬

‫رﻳﺴﻚ‬ ‫ﻣﺎﺗﺮﻳﺲ‬ ‫و‬ ‫ﻣﺪﻳﺮﻳﺖ‬ ‫ﻣﺒﺎﻧﻲ‬ ‫و‬ ‫اﺻﻮل‬‫ﭼﻴﺴﺖ؟‬ ‫ﺷﻤﺎ‬ ‫رﻳﺴﻚ‬ ‫ﭘﺬﻳﺮي‬ ‫ﺗﺤﻤﻞ‬ ‫ﺗﻮان‬
‫اﺧﺘﻼل‬‫اﺣﺘﻤﺎل‬
)‫ﻫﺎي‬ ‫ﻫﺰﻳﻨﻪ‬(‫ﭘﻴﺎﻣﺪﻫﺎ‬

‫رﻳﺴﻚ‬ ‫ﻣﺎﺗﺮﻳﺲ‬ ‫ﺳﺎزي‬ ‫ﭘﻴﺎده‬ ‫ﺑﺮﺗﻤﺮﻳﻦ‬ ‫اي‬ ‫ﻣﻘﺪﻣﻪ‬

‫ﺗﻤﺮﻳﻦ‬ ‫ﺟﺰﺋﻴﺎت‬
1-‫ﻧﻤﺎﻳﻴﺪ‬ ‫ﻓﻬﺮﺳﺖ‬ ‫را‬ ‫ﺧﻮد‬ ‫ﺳﺎزﻣﺎن‬ ‫در‬ ‫ﻣﺨﺎﻃﺮات‬ ‫ﻛﻠﻴﻪ‬ ‫اﺑﺘﺪا‬ ‫در‬
2-‫زﻳﺮ‬ ‫ﻃﺒﻘﻪ‬ ‫ﺳﻪ‬ ‫در‬ ‫را‬ ‫ﺷﺪه‬ ‫ﺗﻬﻴﻪ‬ ‫ﻓﻬﺮﺳﺖ‬:
2-1-‫ﻃﺒﻴﻌﻲ‬ ‫ﻣﺨﺎﻃﺮات‬(Natural Hazards)‫اﺧﺘﺼﺎري‬ ‫ﻋﻼﻣﺖ‬ ‫ﺑﺎ‬N
2-2-‫اﺟﺘﻤﺎﻋﻲ‬ ‫ﻣﺨﺎﻃﺮات‬(Social Hazards)‫اﺧﺘﺼﺎري‬ ‫ﻋﻼﻣﺖ‬ ‫ﺑﺎ‬S
2-3-‫ﺗﻜﻨﻮﻟﻮژﻳﻚ‬ ‫ﻣﺨﺎﻃﺮات‬(Technological Hazards)‫ﺑﺎ‬
‫اﺧﺘﺼﺎري‬ ‫ﻋﻼﻣﺖ‬T
‫ﻧﻤﺎﻳﻴﺪ‬ ‫ﺑﻨﺪي‬ ‫ﻃﺒﻘﻪ‬.

‫ﺗﻤﺮﻳﻦ‬ ‫ﺟﺰﺋﻴﺎت‬
3-‫ﻣﺨﺎﻃﺮه‬ ،‫ﻣﺨﺎﻃﺮات‬ ‫ﻃﺒﻘﺎت‬ ‫از‬ ‫ﻳﻚ‬ ‫ﻫﺮ‬ ‫در‬ ‫ﻋﻼﻣﺘﮕﺬاري‬ ‫و‬ ‫ﺑﺮدن‬ ‫ﻧﺎم‬ ‫ﺗﺮﺗﻴﺐ‬ ‫ﺑﻪ‬
‫ﮔﺮدد‬ ‫ﻣﻲ‬ ‫ﻧﺎﻣﮕﺬاري‬ ‫ﻣﺮﺑﻮﻃﻪ‬)‫ﻣﺜﺎل‬ ‫ﻃﻮر‬ ‫ﺑﻪ‬:N12‫در‬ ‫ﻛﻪ‬ ‫اﺳﺖ‬ ‫اﻳﻦ‬ ‫ﻣﻌﻨﻲ‬ ‫ﺑﻪ‬
‫دوازدﻫﻢ‬ ‫ﻣﺨﺎﻃﺮه‬ ،‫ﻃﺒﻴﻌﻲ‬ ‫ﻣﺨﺎﻃﺮات‬ ‫ﻓﻬﺮﺳﺖ‬)12(‫ﺑﺎﺷﺪ‬ ‫ﻣﻲ‬ ‫ﻧﻈﺮ‬ ‫ﻣﺪ‬(.
4-‫ﺑﻪ‬ ‫ﺧﻮد‬ ‫اﺧﺘﺼﺎري‬ ‫ﻋﻼﻣﺖ‬ ‫ﺑﺎ‬ ‫رﻳﺴﻚ‬ ‫ﻳﻚ‬ ‫ﻋﻨﻮان‬ ‫ﺑﻪ‬ ‫ﺷﺪه‬ ‫ﻧﺎﻣﮕﺬاري‬ ‫ﻣﺨﺎﻃﺮه‬
‫ﻣﺜﺎل‬ ‫ﻃﻮر‬(N12)‫ﭘﻴﺎﻣﺪﻫﺎي‬ ‫و‬ ‫ﺗﺎﺛﻴﺮات‬ ‫ﻫﻤﭽﻨﻴﻦ‬ ‫و‬ ‫رﺧﺪاد‬ ‫اﺣﺘﻤﺎل‬ ‫ﺑﻪ‬ ‫ﺗﻮﺟﻪ‬ ‫ﺑﺎ‬
‫ﻛﻨﻴﺪ‬ ‫ﻋﻼﻣﺘﮕﺬاري‬ ‫را‬ ‫رﻳﺴﻚ‬ ‫ﻣﺎﺗﺮﻳﺲ‬ ‫در‬ ‫ﻣﺮﺑﻮﻃﻪ‬ ‫ﻣﺨﺎﻃﺮه‬.
5-‫ﺑﺪﺳﺖ‬ ‫ﻧﺘﺎﻳﺞ‬ ‫ﻛﻪ‬ ‫ﻛﻨﻴﺪ‬ ‫اﻧﺘﺨﺎب‬ ‫ﺳﺮﮔﺮوه‬ ‫ﻋﻨﻮان‬ ‫ﺑﻪ‬ ‫ﺧﻮد‬ ‫ﮔﺮوه‬ ‫از‬ ‫را‬ ‫اي‬ ‫ﻧﻤﺎﻳﻨﺪه‬
‫ﻧﻤﺎﻳﺪ‬ ‫ﮔﺰارش‬ ‫ﻫﻤﻪ‬ ‫ﺑﺮاي‬ ‫ﺗﻤﺮﻳﻦ‬ ‫آﺧﺮ‬ ‫در‬ ‫را‬ ‫ﮔﺮوه‬ ‫در‬ ‫آﻣﺪه‬

N12
‫ﻃﺒﻴﻌﻲ‬ ‫ﻣﺨﺎﻃﺮات‬(Natural Disasters)
‫اﺧﺘﺼﺎري‬ ‫ﻋﻼﻣﺖ‬ ‫ﺑﺎ‬N
1-‫ﺳﻮﻧﻮﻣﻲ‬
2-‫زﻣﻴﻦ‬ ‫راﻧﺶ‬
3-‫ﺣﺸﺮات‬ ‫ﺣﻤﻠﻪ‬
4-‫ﺳﻴﻼب‬
5-‫ﺳﻮزي‬ ‫آﺗﺶ‬
6-‫زﻣﻴﻦ‬ ‫ﻧﺸﺴﺖ‬ ‫و‬ ‫ﺳﻮﺑﺴﻴﺪاﻧﺲ‬
7-‫ﻫﻮاﻳﻲ‬ ‫و‬ ‫آب‬ ‫ﺗﻐﻴﻴﺮات‬
8-‫ﺣﺮارﺗﻲ‬ ‫ﻫﺎي‬ ‫ﺟﺮﻳﺎن‬
9-‫ﻫﺎ‬ ‫ﻃﻮﻓﺎن‬
10-‫رواﻧﮕﺮاﻳﻲ‬
11-‫ﻧﻴﻨﻮ‬ ‫ال‬
12-‫ﻟﺮزه‬ ‫زﻣﻴﻦ‬ ‫ﻳﺎ‬ ‫زﻟﺰﻟﻪ‬
N12‫ﻛﻪ‬ ‫ﻣﻌﻨﺎﺳﺖ‬ ‫ﺑﺪﻳﻦ‬
‫اﺳﺖ‬ ‫روﺑﺮو‬ ‫رﻳﺴﻜﻲ‬ ‫ﺑﺎ‬ ‫ﺳﺎزﻣﺎن‬
‫در‬ ‫اي‬ ‫ﻣﺨﺎﻃﺮه‬ ‫ﻋﻨﻮان‬ ‫ﺑﻪ‬ ‫ﻛﻪ‬
‫ﺷﻤﺎره‬ ‫ردﻳﻒ‬12‫ﻓﻬﺮﺳﺖ‬ ‫در‬
‫رﺧﺪاد‬ ‫اﺣﺘﻤﺎل‬ ‫ﺑﺎ‬ ‫ﻃﺒﻴﻌﻲ‬ ‫ﻣﺨﺎﻃﺮات‬
‫ﺑﺎﺷﺪ‬ ‫ﻣﻲ‬ ‫ﺑﺤﺮاﻧﻲ‬ ‫ﺗﺎﺛﻴﺮات‬ ‫و‬ ‫ﻣﺤﺘﻤﻞ‬

N12
N11
N10
N9
N8
N7 N6
N5
N4
N3
N2
N1
S1
S3
S2
T1
T2

‫آﺑﺸﺎري‬ ‫و‬ ‫دوﻣﻴﻨﻮﻳﻲ‬ ‫اﺛﺮات‬‫اول‬ ‫ﺣﺎدﺛﻪ‬
‫دوم‬ ‫ﺣﺎدﺛﻪ‬

‫رﯾسک‬ ‫ماترﯾس‬ ‫سازی‬ ‫پياده‬ ‫تمرﯾن‬

‫تحقيقاتی‬ ‫ھای‬ ‫گروه‬ ‫نماﯾندگان‬ ‫توسط‬ ‫نتاﯾج‬ ‫ارائه‬

1- The Australian Journal of emergency management, vol 16, February 2006-Australian Government, 2006.
2- IAEA-Method for Developing Arrangements for Response to a Nuclear or Radiological Emergency-Emergency
Preparedness and Response-September2003-A-1400-Vienna-Austria.
3- Classification of emergency management exersizes.Europe.2006
4- Jeffrey B.Bumgarner, (2008), Emergency management (a reference handbook), ABC-CLIO publications, USA
5- ICS (Incident Command system)-Basic Independent Study course-Federal Emergency Management Agency-
Emergency Management Institute-Jan1998-U.S.A.( IS195Comp).
6- H.Mirzaei, B.Yavar M.Mirtaheri, The lessons learnt from Gonu Tropical Cyclone, IDRC2008, Davos, Switzerland
7- H.Mirzaei, B.Yavar M.Mirtaheri, Lessons learnt from disaster management in Sistan drought along the worlds 7th
international pond, IDRC2008, Davos, Switzerland
8- The Australian Journal of emergency management, vol 16, Februaru 2006- Australian Govrnment, 2006.
9- IAEA-Method for Developing Arrangements for Response to a Nuclear or Radiological Emergency-Emergency
Preparedness and Response-September2003-A-1400-Vienna-Austria.
10- Classification of emergency management exersizes. Europe. 2006
11- Learning about Natural Disasters Games and projects for you and your friends-A stop disasters publication for the
International Decade for Natural Disaster Reduction-IDNDR 1990-2000
12- B.Yavar, M.T Bagherizadeh M.Mirtaheri, “Lessons learnt from Tehran snow disaster management”, DMISA 2008,
ATKV GOUDINI SPA, South Africa.
13- Management of Dead Bodies in Disaster Situations, Disaster Manuals Guidelines series, No.5 –PAHO: Pan
American Health Organization-WHO: World Health Organization-Washington D.C.,U.S.A.2004
14- VCA Training Guide – Classroom Training and Learning-by-Doing, (March 2008), International Federation of Red
Cross and Red Crescent Societies, Switzerland
15- Hyogo Framework for Action (HFA) 2005-2015, Building the Resilience of Nations and Communities to Disasters,
Extract from the Final Report of The World Conference on Disaster Reduction (A/CONF.206/6), International Strategy
for Disaster Reduction, United Nations, 2005.
16- Amdabl, Gary, Disaster Response, GIS for Public Safety, (2001), Esri Press, Redland, California, U.S.A
‫ﻣﻨﺎﺑﻊ‬

17- Weathering the Storm, Participatory Risk Assessment for Informal Settlements, Disaster Mitigation for Sustainable
Livelihoods Programme, (2008), University of Cape Town, Periperi Publications, Cape Town, South Africa.
18- Talking About Disaster: Guide for Standard Messages, Produced by the National Disaster Education Coalition: American
Red Cross, FEMA, JAEM.IBHS, NFPA, NWS, USDA Csrees, and USGS.
19- ICS (Incident Command system)-Basic Independent Study course-Federal Emergency Management Agency-Emergency
Management Institute-Jan1998-U.S.A. (IS195Comp).
20- Emergency Incident Command system-Emergency Incident Commander - Job Action Sheet-FEMA-1998-U.S.A.
21- Charley Shimanski-Public Information Officers in Search and Rescue Operations-Mountain Rescue Association-Education
committee-2004-Evergreen Colorado-U.S.A.
22- FIRESCOPE (Firefighting Resources of California organized for potential emergencies)-Incident Command System-Urban
Search and Rescue Operational System Description - (ICS-USR-120-1) - Jan 2004.U.S.A.
23- FIRESCOPE (Firefighting Resources of California organized for potential emergencies)-Past, Current and Future Directions-
A Progress report-1988-U.S.A.
24- IAEA-Method for Developing Arrangements for Response to a Nuclear or Radiological Emergency-Emergency Preparedness
and Response-September2003-A-1400-Vienna-Austria.
25- What is NIMS and ICS, Dept of Homeland Security, 2005, U.S.A.
26- Disaster Response: Principles of Preparation and Coordination, THE INCIDENT COMMAND SYSTEM, by Robert L.
Irwin, 2004, U.S.A.
27- HICS , Hospital Incident Command System- Guide Book , California Emergency Medical Services Authority (EMSA),
California , U.S.A , August 2006
28- Neighborhood Disaster Volunteers NDV- NDV Resource Package – Part 2: Program Manager’s Handbook, (2005), Swiss
Agency for development and Cooperation (SDC)
29- Neighborhood Corps Pocket Guide, A Citizen’s Guide to Organizing Communities for Emergency Preparedness and
Response. A Program of DC Citizen Corps.Washington DC Neighborhood Corps.Washington.2004.
30- ICS (Incident Command system)-Basic Independent Study course-Federal Emergency Management Agency-Emergency
Management Institute-Jan1998-U.S.A.( IS195Comp).
31- Emergency Incident Command system- Emergency Incident Commander -Job Action Sheet-FEMA-1998-U.S.A.

32-‫آدرس‬ ‫ﺑﻪ‬ ‫ﻓﺎرﺳﻲ‬ ‫زﺑﺎن‬ ‫ﺑﻪ‬ ‫اﻳﻨﻔﻮﮔﺮاﻓﻴﻚ‬ ‫ﺗﺨﺼﺼﻲ‬ ‫ﻣﺮﺟﻊ‬ ‫ﻧﺨﺴﺘﻴﻦ‬:www.infographics.ir
33-‫ﭼﺎپ‬ ،‫ﭼﺎﺑﻬﺎر‬ ‫اﻟﻤﻠﻠﻲ‬ ‫ﺑﻴﻦ‬ ‫داﻧﺸﮕﺎه‬ ،‫ﺑﺤﺮان‬ ‫ﻣﺪﻳﺮﻳﺖ‬ ‫در‬ ‫ﺣﺎدﺛﻪ‬ ‫ﻓﺮﻣﺎﻧﺪﻫﻲ‬ ‫ﺳﺎﻣﺎﻧﻪ‬ ‫ﺑﺮ‬ ‫اي‬ ‫ﻣﻘﺪﻣﻪ‬ ،‫ﻣﻴﺮﻃﺎﻫﺮي‬ ‫ﻣﻴﺜﻢ‬ ،‫ﻳﺎور‬ ‫ﺑﻴﮋن‬
‫اول‬1388‫ﺗﻬﺮان‬ ،.
35-‫ﺳﻠﻮارﺟﻮ‬ ،‫ﺑﺎس‬ ‫اﺳﺘﻔﺎن‬ ‫ﺗﺪوﻳﻦ‬ ‫و‬ ‫ﺗﻬﻴﻪ‬ ،‫راﻫﻨﻤﺎ‬ ‫ﻛﺘﺎب‬ ،‫ﺳﻴﺴﺘﻤﻲ‬ ‫ﺗﺤﻠﻴﻠﻲ‬ ،‫ﺑﺤﺮان‬ ‫از‬ ‫ﻧﺎﺷﻲ‬ ‫ﺧﻄﺮﭘﺬﻳﺮي‬ ‫اﺣﺘﻤﺎل‬ ‫ﻣﺪﻳﺮﻳﺖ‬
‫ﺑﻴﮋن‬ ‫ﺗﺮﺟﻤﻪ‬ ‫ﮔﺮوه‬ ،‫ﻳﺎور‬ ‫ﺑﻴﮋن‬ ‫زﻳﺮﻧﻈﺮ‬ ‫و‬ ‫ﻓﺎرﺳﻲ‬ ‫ﻣﺘﻦ‬ ‫ﻣﺤﺘﻮاﻳﻲ‬ ‫و‬ ‫ﻓﻨﻲ‬ ‫وﻳﺮاﻳﺶ‬ ،‫ﺑﺎﺗﻴﺴﺘﺎ‬ ‫ﻓﺪرﻳﻜﺎ‬ ،‫دﻳﭙﺮﻳﻚ‬ ‫دي‬ ‫ﺟﻴﻨﻲ‬ ،‫راﻣﺎﺳﺎﻣﻲ‬
، ‫اول‬ ‫ﭼﺎپ‬ ،‫ﭼﺎﺑﻬﺎر‬ ‫اﻟﻤﻠﻠﻲ‬ ‫ﺑﻴﻦ‬ ‫داﻧﺸﮕﺎه‬ ‫اﻧﺘﺸﺎرات‬ ،‫ﻣﻬﺮﻳﺎن‬ ‫ﻓﺎﻃﻤﻪ‬ ،‫ﻣﻴﺮﻃﺎﻫﺮي‬ ‫ﻣﻴﺜﻢ‬ ،‫رﺣﻤﺎﻧﻲ‬ ‫ﻣﺮﻳﻢ‬ ،‫ﻳﺎور‬1389‫ﺗﻬﺮان‬ ،.
36-2009 UNISDR Terminology on Disaster Risk Reduction

51
‫دﻳﺪار‬ ‫اﻣﻴﺪ‬ ‫ﺑﻪ‬

Risk Matrix, Definition, Theory and Practice (B - Exercise) / DRM Series / Bijan Yavar

Recomendados

Recomendados

Más contenido relacionado

Destacado

Destacado (11)

Similar a Risk Matrix, Definition, Theory and Practice (B - Exercise) / DRM Series / Bijan Yavar

Similar a Risk Matrix, Definition, Theory and Practice (B - Exercise) / DRM Series / Bijan Yavar (12)

Más de Bijan Yavar

Más de Bijan Yavar (20)

Último

Último (20)

Risk Matrix, Definition, Theory and Practice (B - Exercise) / DRM Series / Bijan Yavar