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Getting There From Here



Dylan Schiemann
CEO, SitePen, Inc.
April, 2009


                               1
The Roadmap
                    Where do we want to go?
                    Where are we now?
                    What’s our rate-of-change?
                          Why?
                    What strategies can affect that rate?
                          What are the costs?
                    What should we do right now to get there?




© SitePen, Inc. 2009. All Rights Reserved

                                                                                                 2

Technology decisions are often made in the shadow of sunk-cost fallacies and perceptions
that don’t accurately reflect reality. The goal of this talk is to help examine where the world
of in-browser UI technology is at the moment and where, based on the evidence, we can
expect it to be in the near future. Evolution of browsers over the next year or two. How do
we evolve as a community
We Want Apps That Are:

                   Web-delivered
                   Affordable to build
                   Useful and engaging
                   Benefits of desktop and web
                   Search
                   Link
                   Remix
                              Widgets
                              Mash-ups and Portals


© SitePen, Inc. 2009. All Rights Reserved

                                                                                              3

In short, the browser “won”. New applications are primarily deployed through the context of a
web browser today, and so as applications migrate to the web, we continue to face the reality
that the web makes some things easy and many things hard. The things that it makes easy
are the things for which the web was initially adopted. Applications that have succeeded on
the web have done so in part because of their natural affinity and compatibility with the
perspective of applications that are searchable, distributed, and portable/survivable.

App authors have given up a lot to shoe-horn many apps into this view of the world, and
there continues to be a natural tension between fidelity of experience and the other benefits
that web apps provide.
Where Are We Now?



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                                                                                            4

Before we can examine how things are going to change, we need to get square regarding our
current situation. The reality of modern browser-based apps is at once heartening and
depressing.
It Depends

                    Well served:
                          Apps with static(ish) content
                          Document-oriented workflows
                          Text-based content creation
                    Not well served:
                          Everything else




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                                                          5
Enter URL or footnote here; delete if not required. Long text and/or URLs will wrap automatically for you.


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      http://flickr.com/photos/sonalandabe/519213371/

                                                                                                                      6

The web is very much the 4-lane highway of application delivery vehicles. Things which are
designed to handle the reality of the road have the lowest incremental carrying costs, but the
result is that many applications go completely un-served by that reality. Building RIA’s today
is sort of like trying to build the mythical flying car...it’s perhaps a good idea, but the
compromises that we’re forced into making (on any RIA technology) leave us with funky-
looking hybrids which aspire to greatness in both directions (air and land), but may achieve
neither. Regardless, the road (in this case browsers) continue their inevitable march to
encompass ever more of the use-case landscape. The trick, then, is figuring out ways to work
with the grain and not against it. This might mean building new kinds of vehicles that aren’t
suited to city streets. The contract of a road is a suggestion, not an edict.
“We’re so far from the state
               of the art we can’t even see
                   the state of the art”

                                                        Doug Crockford


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                                                                                               7

Browsers today are fundamentally incapable of taking advantage of most of the resources
available to them. From ballsy GPU’s and CPU’s to local storage to even something as simple
as bi-directional TCP-ish network connectivity, in-browser applications are hobbled in every
way. But if we zoom in, we can see these barriers starting to come down. When, then, can we
use these technologies in “street legal” applications? Some quantum of time after we demand
it. The “permitting” process is unpredictable, but it’s not infinite.

video and photoshop on the web
<a href=”...”>
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http://flickr.com/photos/autanex/519742656/

                                                                                                8

Links expose the structure of our data, but only in rendered views. This isn’t an existential
problem as we have used “good enough” technologies to reduce the ambiguity and draw out
the signal from the noise. Links aren’t added to documents for the benefit of 3rd-parties,
though. They’re created to meet application goals. In this way, they have created a huge
positive externality on the basis of a tiny, ubiquitous contract.

We’ll come back to this.
Relative Rates of Change
  App                                       Strategy   Cost Tactics




                                                                       IE
 Web
                        Now                                           Ideal
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                                                                              9
.dj_ie6 .giganticHack { ... }
         Enter URL or footnote here; delete if not required. Long text and/or URLs will wrap automatically for you.


© http://flickr.com/photos/senor_codo/352250460/
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                                                                                                                      10

We also suffer negative externalities. As we’ll see in a minute, choices made by users often
do not encode the full costs to society (e.g., application developers) of those decisions.
Sticking with IE 6 has a large cost not only to the user who’s on that browser, but also to
everyone trying to service that user. In many cases, the incremental value of their business
may be fully captured by the increase in development costs. But more distressingly, new
capabilities and app functionality simply aren’t available to them. The opportunity costs may
be enormous. It’s a hugely inefficient allocation of capital.

The speed of uptake of new browsers is now our Achilles' heel. If toolkits can fill in, how far
can/should we expect them to go? Should we think of them as hybrid cars (a bridge to the
future), or catalytic converters or scrubbers (band-aids that simply deal with the worst of the
short-term effects)?
Costs and Externalities
                    Doing interesting things in HTML is hard, but...
                          Devs know HTML
                          Systems produce HTML
                          Search engines understand HTML best
                    Many features can’t be attempted with HTML alone
                          Almost: advanced layout, 2D, offline/storage, Comet
                          No chance: Audio, video, 3D, image transforms
                    Many HTML advantages cannot be assumed in RIA
                    scenarios (but toolkits may fill some gaps)



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                                                                                              11

Things in the “almost” category may move into the “can do” category for any particular
browser, but since ubiquity is hard to achieve, they may stay in “almost” for a very long time.
E.g.: XHR.
The Contenders
                    HTML
                    HTML + Ajax/Other
                    Pure JavaScript
                    Silverlight
                    Flash/Flex




© SitePen, Inc. 2009. All Rights Reserved

                                                                                            12

So we want the benefits we outlined previously and we understand that things need to be
“web delivered” (e.g., we’re not getting railroads back any time soon). We have some options,
and they all have different sweet spots.
The Contenders
                    HTML
                    HTML + Ajax/Other
                    Pure JavaScript
                    Silverlight
                    Flash/Flex




                                Ubiquity + Capability Is The Game


© SitePen, Inc. 2009. All Rights Reserved

                                                                                            12

So we want the benefits we outlined previously and we understand that things need to be
“web delivered” (e.g., we’re not getting railroads back any time soon). We have some options,
and they all have different sweet spots.
Is It The Web If You
                                       Can’t “View Source”?
                                            “Not the web I love”
                                                               Joseph Smarr


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                                                                                               13

The web has evolved within its spectrum of capabilities from low to high (on average) at a
blistering pace. It was only 15 years ago that it was being used for little more than research
papers, whereas today it is the de-facto application deployment platform. A key enabler of
this high rate of evolutionary change is the ability of web developers to understand what
others have done in order to achiever a particular outcome and to copy that technique. We
have been trained nearly our whole lives to think that copying is bad, but we know at some
level that this is how we learn. A web that isn’t “view source”-able isn’t “the web”. We need to
come to terms with the long-term costs of lowered productivity and higher incremental costs
for any platform that doesn’t preserve the “view source” capability as a default property of
the platform. We’re all reaping the benefits of decisions made 15 years ago, all the while
discussing new technologies that endanger that value chain without a cogent discussion of
the costs and benefits. We need to think hard about this.
Markup                                                          Code




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                                                                                           14

The big difference between “view source-ability” and platforms that are closed by default is
the ability to copy-and-paste from the app as it’s actually delivered and to tinker easily.
HTML and lightweight Ajax frameworks often preserve this benefit as a side-effect of being
markup-driven. Toolkits like Dojo that could default to sending code (something not
grokable by most webdevs) need to work harder to preserve this advantage. On the other
side of the spectrum are the “code all the way” options which throw “view source” under the
bus in order to achieve some other goal. This make may them very well suited to their
instantaneous environment, but it also leaves them ill-equipped from an evolutionary stand-
point. No wonder, then, that many of them are growing view-source like properties as add-
on features.
JavaScript-ish




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                                            15

Meta languages
HTML or JavaScript or some other language
Web-ish                                            Desktop-ish




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                                                                                           16

Users, however, only care about the instantaneous experience. The kinds of experiences that
we can deliver are gated by the underlying capabilities of the platforms, and it’s here that
closed options can excel.
Always
                   Will Browsers Suck                                             ?



© SitePen, Inc. 2009. All Rights Reserved

                                                                                            17

We feel most accutely the pain of the current crop of browsers, and in that pain it’s easy to
lose sight of what is coming around the bend. Saying that something is bad defines a starting
point, but not a vector. We need to pay attention to the related rates.
Will Browsers Always Suck ?



© SitePen, Inc. 2009. All Rights Reserved

                                                                                            17

We feel most accutely the pain of the current crop of browsers, and in that pain it’s easy to
lose sight of what is coming around the bend. Saying that something is bad defines a starting
point, but not a vector. We need to pay attention to the related rates.
Disambiguation: 2 Kind of “Suck”
                    Can’t begin to handle the problem
                          No native capability
                          Uneven availability
                          Non-standard API
                    Too complex to be realistic
                          Ubiquitous, but buggy / uneven implementation
                          Requires too much code / too slow




© SitePen, Inc. 2009. All Rights Reserved

                                                                          18
“Competition Will Save Us!”



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                                                                                            19

It may! Things have recently started to get much better on this front, thanks in large part to
Mozilla, Apple, and Google. Microsoft has been forced to respond with IE7 and 8, and may yet
again stop too long of the mark in their efforts to stanch the bleeding.
Getting New Stuff Faster
                    Firefox 3 and 3.5
                          Auto/forced upgrade
                    Safari 3 and 4
                          Pushed through Software Update
                    Opera 9.6
                          Upgrade notices
                    Chrome
                          Auto-upgrade system
                    Internet Explorer 8
                          It’s complicated

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                                                                                         20

IE isn’t in a bad spot here, but its overwhelming market share makes its upgrade cycle
representative of the slowness inherent in the upgrade process of the entire software
ecosystem. Upgrading browsers == upgrading OSes, and people do it with similar
trepidation, particularly at the enterprise level. This is not unwise.
Netscape Usage Share
            100




               75




               50




               25




                  0
                      ‘93 ‘94 ‘95 ‘96 ‘97 ‘98 ‘99 ‘00 ‘01 ‘02 ‘03 ‘04 ‘05 ‘06 ‘07 ‘08 ‘09 ‘10
© SitePen, Inc. 2009. All Rights Reserved

                                                                                                21

While we know that things are starting to move faster with regards to internal browser
replacement rates, we need to be able to say something about who gets to be in control of
the markets.

We’ve got a decade and a half of browser experience now, and it appears that the case for
natural monopolies in the browser space is strong.
IE Versions Over Time
           100



                                                           U5.0           M5.2         8.0
              75
                                                    U4.0      M5.0               7.0
                                            (U3)       M4.5             6.0
                                               M4.0               5.5
              50                       M3              5.0
                                M2.1          4.0
                                     3.0
                              M2
              25
                            2.0
                                  1.5
                  1.0
                 0
                   ‘95 ‘96 ‘97 ‘98 ‘99 ‘00 ‘01 ‘02 ‘03 ‘04 ‘05 ‘06 ‘07 ‘08 ‘09 ‘10

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                                                                                             22

Between ’95 and ’02 there were 16 major releases of IE across 4 platforms.

From ‘02-’08 we have 2 releases on 1 platform.

IE hit 90% market share in ’02.

Clearly, there is some force that keeps market winners in this space from moving once
they’ve won. We suspect it’s a lack of competition.
IE Versions Over Time
           100



                                                           U5.0           M5.2         8.0
              75
                                                    U4.0      M5.0               7.0
                                            (U3)       M4.5             6.0
                                               M4.0               5.5
              50                       M3              5.0
                                M2.1          4.0
                                     3.0
                              M2
              25
                            2.0
                                  1.5
                  1.0
                 0
                   ‘95 ‘96 ‘97 ‘98 ‘99 ‘00 ‘01 ‘02 ‘03 ‘04 ‘05 ‘06 ‘07 ‘08 ‘09 ‘10

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                                                                                             22

Between ’95 and ’02 there were 16 major releases of IE across 4 platforms.

From ‘02-’08 we have 2 releases on 1 platform.

IE hit 90% market share in ’02.

Clearly, there is some force that keeps market winners in this space from moving once
they’ve won. We suspect it’s a lack of competition.
Monocultures Reduce
                                Costs In The Short Run



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                                                                                               23

there is an asymmetric information problem which hopeful platforms like Flex and Silverlight
are playing to: they hope to emerge in a dominant position by putting off the costs of
monoculture until after they have “won”
Monocultures Reduce
                                Costs In The Short Run

                                            But can be sexy!


© SitePen, Inc. 2009. All Rights Reserved

                                                                                               23

there is an asymmetric information problem which hopeful platforms like Flex and Silverlight
are playing to: they hope to emerge in a dominant position by putting off the costs of
monoculture until after they have “won”
Are Web Browsers Prone To
                     Natural Monopolies?



© SitePen, Inc. 2009. All Rights Reserved

                                              24
Are Web Browsers Prone To
                     Natural Monopolies?
                               How Would Our Attitudes Change
                                 If We Expected Monopolies?

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                                                                24
hostage to deployed browsers




                 Web-ish                                             Desktop-ish




© SitePen, Inc. 2009. All Rights Reserved

                                                                                             25

monocultures have the benefit of not being hostage to the upgrade cycles of the collective
set of browsers. By reducing the variables for upgrades and control of the platform
experience, closed platforms are able to deliver new capabilities faster. At least so far.
rev independently




                 Web-ish                         Desktop-ish




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                                                                26
Browser Economics: Standards
         Cost*




              0%                            25%   50%                 75%      90%   100%

                  Standards Compliance
         *Cost is an artificial number factoring in R&D and opportunity costs

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                                                                                            27

there’s no advantage to being 100% standards compliant for any browser vendor except as a
short-term cudgel browser vendors don’t make money on renderers...they make money on
search. Investment in renderers (why developers care about a particular browser) aren’t
justified by market share advances or monetary remuneration.

Standards are overrated... they don’t help us compete with innovations
Browser Economics: Standards

                                                       5%




                                                            95%



                  Search                    Renderer
         *Based on Mozilla revenues

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                                                                                            28

there’s no advantage to being 100% standards compliant for any browser vendor except as a
short-term cudgel
browser vendors don’t make money on renderers...they make money on search. Investment
in renderers (why developers care about a particular browser) aren’t justified by market share
advances or monetary remuneration.

We need to ask more out of browser vendors
Other Options?



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                                                                                           29

Since we know that the upgrade cycles of browsers are somewhat out of our hands, how do
we get to world where the economic interests are aligned? The browser guys aren’t on the
hunt...so what next?
Gears?!
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                                                                                               30

Google Gears (and to a lesser extent, Yahoo Browser Plus) point to a possible structural
solution: systems that are developed by organizations invested in content but which have
leverage over the entire ecosystem of deployed browsers. Not handing this type of control
over to closed vendors is also critically important to the future of a low-cost platform, and so
an Open Source system that can hot-patch browsers may be our best path forward.
AIR? Titanium?
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                                                             31

Proprietary but great. Open but less mature.
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                                                                                               32

Systems like Gears, today, cannot affect markup but can add new JavaScript API’s. This leads
to a potential distortionary effect where new APIs don’t come in the from of tags and
developers may consider progress to only be acceptable in guise of APIs and not tags. Given
that markup is the lifeblood of the web development and that the progress of markup
liberates features from the realms of programmers and gives them to mere mortals, what
should we make of this? Not necessarily about right or wrong, but how much it costs
(programmers vs. web developers).
Will It Be Enough?



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                                                                 33
Open Questions
                    What is the role of semantics in apps vs. pages?
                    What happens if a single vendor owns the plugin
                    platform too?
                    Does routing around browsers also throw the W3C under
                    the bus?
                    What should developers advocate for to browser
                    vendors?




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                                                                            34
Now What?
                    HTML 5?
                    JavaScript? ES4?
                    Future of “Ajax” and toolkits?
                    Technology choices?
                    What about mobile?




© SitePen, Inc. 2009. All Rights Reserved

                                                     35
HTML 5
                    Not done yet!
                    Adds semantics for many common cases
                          tables/grids, video, audio, form repeating, “data
                          templates”, ad-hoc attributes
                    Standardizes error recovery in parsing
                          XML is the bug that HTML 5 fixes
                    Largely silent on layout
                          Depends on CSS for new capabilities... and CSS 3 is dead
                          on arrival



© SitePen, Inc. 2009. All Rights Reserved

                                                                                     36
What If JavaScript Got A Lot Better?




© SitePen, Inc. 2009. All Rights Reserved

                                               37
What If JavaScript Got A Lot Better?
                    Good news! It’s getting much better




© SitePen, Inc. 2009. All Rights Reserved

                                                          37
What If JavaScript Got A Lot Better?
                    Good news! It’s getting much better
                    Bad-ish news: just not in the ways most people expected




© SitePen, Inc. 2009. All Rights Reserved

                                                                              37
What If JavaScript Got A Lot Better?
                    Good news! It’s getting much better
                    Bad-ish news: just not in the ways most people expected
                    JavaScript 2, aka: ECMAScript 4, aka: ActionScript 3
                          Not happening
                          ES 3.1 splinter group broke off from WG in early ’08
                          Harmony announcement in August
                          Java-like class semantics likely never to appear
                                 Or at least not without some unification with prototypes
                          Packages, namespaces now off the table


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                                                                                           37
The Buried Lead
                    JavaScript is already a pretty good language
                    JavaScript doesn’t need traditional classes to go faster
                    New bumper crop of high-performance JS VM’s:
                          Squirrelfish (Apple)
                          TraceMonkey (Mozilla/Adobe)
                          v8 (Google)
                          SunSpider (Opera)
                    JIT, DFA, tracing and trace tree folding no longer “exotic”
                    or “research”
                    Microsoft notably absent from the performance party

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                                                                                  38
The Enterprise Perspective
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                                                    39
The Enterprise Perspective
                    Enterprise support and training investments in IE
                    Managed upgrade paths
                          Accelerated rollouts of IE 8 can alleviate much pain
                    External users may be on old browsers for 4+yrs
                          IE 6 to be “flushed out” by mid-2010?
                          Gears/YBP likely to have more impact than FF/Opera/
                          Chrome/Safari
                    Primary choices: Ajax Toolkits or Flex/Silverlight




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                                                                                 40
What Should We Expect From Ajax?
                    Toolkits play to least common denominator
                    Looming performance differential
                    Widening gap in quality of user experience between new
                    browsers and old
                          More Flash/Gears-as-fallback branching, creating implicit
                          dependency on plugins
                          Increasingly, new features may simply not work or may
                          not be usable on down-rev, un-augmented browsers
                    Toolkits will preview component models and provide
                    bridges to better performing APIs


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                                                                                             41

The yawning gap in performance between IE 6/7 and the latest versions of Chrome and
WebKit creates a gigantic range of potential experiences for users on equivalent (modern)
hardware but with slightly different software. In this environment, the role of toolkits will
switch from papering over differences in capability to providing shims for tools like Gears and
Flash to augment the native experience.
Ajax Toolkits In Perspective
                    jQuery, Prototype, Moo, Dojo Base:
                          “Core” libraries for extension ecosystems...most easily
                          replaced by browser innovation
                    Dojo+Dijit, YUI, jQuery UI, Ext, Sprout Core:
                          Comprehensive UI and plumbing frameworks. Will need to
                          change in the face of browser evolution but also stand to
                          gain most
                    GWT, Other compilers:
                          Orthogonal to, but gated by, browser evolution. Self-
                          selected developer audiences.


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                                                                                               42

Ajax toolkits all hit a particular niche, and the sweet spot for a toolkit like Dojo is in “HTML+
+” type applications which are still page-oriented and developed by people with web-app
construction backgrounds. For “pure webdevs” who don’t know much programming, the state
of the art will improve fastest based on native browser capabilities. Everyone else is likely to
see large improvements, but continually mediated by toolkits.
The Average Will Improve,
                          Albeit Unevenly



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                                                 43

Not ubiquitous performance
Different dev costs
CSS (D)Evolution
                    CSS 3 recommendation process deeply broken
                    More reliance on JavaScript for layout
                    Layout primitives, ease-of-use key toolkit differentiators
                          Markup or code? Or both?
                          Forward compatibility with proposed specs
                    Unsure future of CSS
                          Standardize on an Ajax toolkit for the foreseeable future.
                          Until the platform forces agreement, ROI is based on
                          localized knowledge re-use.
                    Performance concerns

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                                                                                              44

It’s hard to say what will happen here. Either JavaScript toolkits will take it upon themselves
to attempt to fix the layout primitives, relying on ever-better execution engines to help
lessen the blow, or single browsers will race ahead and potentially fork/define a spec which
the CSS WG will eventually (grudgingly) ratify. Many features need to be culled from SVG, and
Firefox is already on the scent. The evolutionary path here has much risk.
What About Flex/Silverlight?
                    Responsive, affordable option in the short-term
                    Reasonable choices for one-off and RAD situations
                    Transparent platform plays... with an upside
                          Stiff competition likely to drive quick improvements until
                          market is settled
                          If a single winner emerges, expect another “IE winter”
                    Single vendor control by any other name...
                          Adobe and MSFT are learning how to arbitrage the brand
                          of Open Source (not just “standards”)
                    Breaks text and indexability

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                                                                                                 45

Flex/Silverlight represent great short-term choices, and their long-term problem is in
building and keeping trust. In large part, this is due to the organizations that have produced
them and the tooling revenue models they are attached to.
The Abiding Sorrow Of Mobile




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                                                                 46
Mobile and Rich App Technologies
                    Flash/Silverlight mobile experience is app-oriented, not
                    browsing-oriented
                    Mobile is where browsers improve fastest
                    Apps (not static content) require re-development for
                    mobile regardless of rendering tech
                          UX, not technology, requires rethink
                          “Web” not a be-all, end-all container on mobile
                    Mobile apps will be roughly OS/browser-specific for next
                    several years at the high-end



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                                                                               47
The Long View
                    IE will not hold
                          High-performance alternatives will replace it
                          “Open Web” plugin
                          The growing disparity presents a huge financial loss
                    Open development model likely to depend on Ajax/
                    JavaScript in RIA space for the foreseeable future
                    Flex/Silverlight likely to make inroads, but will be
                    curtailed by (rational) mistrust of Adobe and MSFT
                    The next 2 years will tell if codec licensing is RIA
                    endgame

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                                                                                                48

The race for high-performance open web browsers is once again “on”. Given that IE is
evolving, there will continue to be huge pressure on the IE team to either support the killer
apps which better browsers enable or will be forcibly augmented.
Questions and Key URLs
                    SitePen sitepen.com
                    Dojo Toolkit dojotoolkit.org
                    Dojo Foundation dojofoundation.org
                    Dijit dojotoolkit.org
                    Dojo Campus             dojocampus.org
                    Comet cometd.com
                    Comet Daily cometdaily.com


                    Dylan Schiemann dylan@sitepen.com


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                                                             49
Thank You



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                                                        50

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Openwebdylanqconbeijing 090423091545-phpapp01

  • 1. Getting There From Here Dylan Schiemann CEO, SitePen, Inc. April, 2009 1
  • 2. The Roadmap Where do we want to go? Where are we now? What’s our rate-of-change? Why? What strategies can affect that rate? What are the costs? What should we do right now to get there? © SitePen, Inc. 2009. All Rights Reserved 2 Technology decisions are often made in the shadow of sunk-cost fallacies and perceptions that don’t accurately reflect reality. The goal of this talk is to help examine where the world of in-browser UI technology is at the moment and where, based on the evidence, we can expect it to be in the near future. Evolution of browsers over the next year or two. How do we evolve as a community
  • 3. We Want Apps That Are: Web-delivered Affordable to build Useful and engaging Benefits of desktop and web Search Link Remix Widgets Mash-ups and Portals © SitePen, Inc. 2009. All Rights Reserved 3 In short, the browser “won”. New applications are primarily deployed through the context of a web browser today, and so as applications migrate to the web, we continue to face the reality that the web makes some things easy and many things hard. The things that it makes easy are the things for which the web was initially adopted. Applications that have succeeded on the web have done so in part because of their natural affinity and compatibility with the perspective of applications that are searchable, distributed, and portable/survivable. App authors have given up a lot to shoe-horn many apps into this view of the world, and there continues to be a natural tension between fidelity of experience and the other benefits that web apps provide.
  • 4. Where Are We Now? © SitePen, Inc. 2009. All Rights Reserved 4 Before we can examine how things are going to change, we need to get square regarding our current situation. The reality of modern browser-based apps is at once heartening and depressing.
  • 5. It Depends Well served: Apps with static(ish) content Document-oriented workflows Text-based content creation Not well served: Everything else © SitePen, Inc. 2009. All Rights Reserved 5
  • 6. Enter URL or footnote here; delete if not required. Long text and/or URLs will wrap automatically for you. © SitePen, Inc. 2009. All Rights Reserved http://flickr.com/photos/sonalandabe/519213371/ 6 The web is very much the 4-lane highway of application delivery vehicles. Things which are designed to handle the reality of the road have the lowest incremental carrying costs, but the result is that many applications go completely un-served by that reality. Building RIA’s today is sort of like trying to build the mythical flying car...it’s perhaps a good idea, but the compromises that we’re forced into making (on any RIA technology) leave us with funky- looking hybrids which aspire to greatness in both directions (air and land), but may achieve neither. Regardless, the road (in this case browsers) continue their inevitable march to encompass ever more of the use-case landscape. The trick, then, is figuring out ways to work with the grain and not against it. This might mean building new kinds of vehicles that aren’t suited to city streets. The contract of a road is a suggestion, not an edict.
  • 7. “We’re so far from the state of the art we can’t even see the state of the art” Doug Crockford © SitePen, Inc. 2009. All Rights Reserved 7 Browsers today are fundamentally incapable of taking advantage of most of the resources available to them. From ballsy GPU’s and CPU’s to local storage to even something as simple as bi-directional TCP-ish network connectivity, in-browser applications are hobbled in every way. But if we zoom in, we can see these barriers starting to come down. When, then, can we use these technologies in “street legal” applications? Some quantum of time after we demand it. The “permitting” process is unpredictable, but it’s not infinite. video and photoshop on the web
  • 8. <a href=”...”> © SitePen, Inc. 2009. All Rights Reserved http://flickr.com/photos/autanex/519742656/ 8 Links expose the structure of our data, but only in rendered views. This isn’t an existential problem as we have used “good enough” technologies to reduce the ambiguity and draw out the signal from the noise. Links aren’t added to documents for the benefit of 3rd-parties, though. They’re created to meet application goals. In this way, they have created a huge positive externality on the basis of a tiny, ubiquitous contract. We’ll come back to this.
  • 9. Relative Rates of Change App Strategy Cost Tactics IE Web Now Ideal © SitePen, Inc. 2009. All Rights Reserved 9
  • 10. .dj_ie6 .giganticHack { ... } Enter URL or footnote here; delete if not required. Long text and/or URLs will wrap automatically for you. © http://flickr.com/photos/senor_codo/352250460/ SitePen, Inc. 2009. All Rights Reserved 10 We also suffer negative externalities. As we’ll see in a minute, choices made by users often do not encode the full costs to society (e.g., application developers) of those decisions. Sticking with IE 6 has a large cost not only to the user who’s on that browser, but also to everyone trying to service that user. In many cases, the incremental value of their business may be fully captured by the increase in development costs. But more distressingly, new capabilities and app functionality simply aren’t available to them. The opportunity costs may be enormous. It’s a hugely inefficient allocation of capital. The speed of uptake of new browsers is now our Achilles' heel. If toolkits can fill in, how far can/should we expect them to go? Should we think of them as hybrid cars (a bridge to the future), or catalytic converters or scrubbers (band-aids that simply deal with the worst of the short-term effects)?
  • 11. Costs and Externalities Doing interesting things in HTML is hard, but... Devs know HTML Systems produce HTML Search engines understand HTML best Many features can’t be attempted with HTML alone Almost: advanced layout, 2D, offline/storage, Comet No chance: Audio, video, 3D, image transforms Many HTML advantages cannot be assumed in RIA scenarios (but toolkits may fill some gaps) © SitePen, Inc. 2009. All Rights Reserved 11 Things in the “almost” category may move into the “can do” category for any particular browser, but since ubiquity is hard to achieve, they may stay in “almost” for a very long time. E.g.: XHR.
  • 12. The Contenders HTML HTML + Ajax/Other Pure JavaScript Silverlight Flash/Flex © SitePen, Inc. 2009. All Rights Reserved 12 So we want the benefits we outlined previously and we understand that things need to be “web delivered” (e.g., we’re not getting railroads back any time soon). We have some options, and they all have different sweet spots.
  • 13. The Contenders HTML HTML + Ajax/Other Pure JavaScript Silverlight Flash/Flex Ubiquity + Capability Is The Game © SitePen, Inc. 2009. All Rights Reserved 12 So we want the benefits we outlined previously and we understand that things need to be “web delivered” (e.g., we’re not getting railroads back any time soon). We have some options, and they all have different sweet spots.
  • 14. Is It The Web If You Can’t “View Source”? “Not the web I love” Joseph Smarr © SitePen, Inc. 2009. All Rights Reserved 13 The web has evolved within its spectrum of capabilities from low to high (on average) at a blistering pace. It was only 15 years ago that it was being used for little more than research papers, whereas today it is the de-facto application deployment platform. A key enabler of this high rate of evolutionary change is the ability of web developers to understand what others have done in order to achiever a particular outcome and to copy that technique. We have been trained nearly our whole lives to think that copying is bad, but we know at some level that this is how we learn. A web that isn’t “view source”-able isn’t “the web”. We need to come to terms with the long-term costs of lowered productivity and higher incremental costs for any platform that doesn’t preserve the “view source” capability as a default property of the platform. We’re all reaping the benefits of decisions made 15 years ago, all the while discussing new technologies that endanger that value chain without a cogent discussion of the costs and benefits. We need to think hard about this.
  • 15. Markup Code © SitePen, Inc. 2009. All Rights Reserved 14 The big difference between “view source-ability” and platforms that are closed by default is the ability to copy-and-paste from the app as it’s actually delivered and to tinker easily. HTML and lightweight Ajax frameworks often preserve this benefit as a side-effect of being markup-driven. Toolkits like Dojo that could default to sending code (something not grokable by most webdevs) need to work harder to preserve this advantage. On the other side of the spectrum are the “code all the way” options which throw “view source” under the bus in order to achieve some other goal. This make may them very well suited to their instantaneous environment, but it also leaves them ill-equipped from an evolutionary stand- point. No wonder, then, that many of them are growing view-source like properties as add- on features.
  • 16. JavaScript-ish © SitePen, Inc. 2009. All Rights Reserved 15 Meta languages HTML or JavaScript or some other language
  • 17. Web-ish Desktop-ish © SitePen, Inc. 2009. All Rights Reserved 16 Users, however, only care about the instantaneous experience. The kinds of experiences that we can deliver are gated by the underlying capabilities of the platforms, and it’s here that closed options can excel.
  • 18. Always Will Browsers Suck ? © SitePen, Inc. 2009. All Rights Reserved 17 We feel most accutely the pain of the current crop of browsers, and in that pain it’s easy to lose sight of what is coming around the bend. Saying that something is bad defines a starting point, but not a vector. We need to pay attention to the related rates.
  • 19. Will Browsers Always Suck ? © SitePen, Inc. 2009. All Rights Reserved 17 We feel most accutely the pain of the current crop of browsers, and in that pain it’s easy to lose sight of what is coming around the bend. Saying that something is bad defines a starting point, but not a vector. We need to pay attention to the related rates.
  • 20. Disambiguation: 2 Kind of “Suck” Can’t begin to handle the problem No native capability Uneven availability Non-standard API Too complex to be realistic Ubiquitous, but buggy / uneven implementation Requires too much code / too slow © SitePen, Inc. 2009. All Rights Reserved 18
  • 21. “Competition Will Save Us!” © SitePen, Inc. 2009. All Rights Reserved 19 It may! Things have recently started to get much better on this front, thanks in large part to Mozilla, Apple, and Google. Microsoft has been forced to respond with IE7 and 8, and may yet again stop too long of the mark in their efforts to stanch the bleeding.
  • 22. Getting New Stuff Faster Firefox 3 and 3.5 Auto/forced upgrade Safari 3 and 4 Pushed through Software Update Opera 9.6 Upgrade notices Chrome Auto-upgrade system Internet Explorer 8 It’s complicated © SitePen, Inc. 2009. All Rights Reserved 20 IE isn’t in a bad spot here, but its overwhelming market share makes its upgrade cycle representative of the slowness inherent in the upgrade process of the entire software ecosystem. Upgrading browsers == upgrading OSes, and people do it with similar trepidation, particularly at the enterprise level. This is not unwise.
  • 23. Netscape Usage Share 100 75 50 25 0 ‘93 ‘94 ‘95 ‘96 ‘97 ‘98 ‘99 ‘00 ‘01 ‘02 ‘03 ‘04 ‘05 ‘06 ‘07 ‘08 ‘09 ‘10 © SitePen, Inc. 2009. All Rights Reserved 21 While we know that things are starting to move faster with regards to internal browser replacement rates, we need to be able to say something about who gets to be in control of the markets. We’ve got a decade and a half of browser experience now, and it appears that the case for natural monopolies in the browser space is strong.
  • 24. IE Versions Over Time 100 U5.0 M5.2 8.0 75 U4.0 M5.0 7.0 (U3) M4.5 6.0 M4.0 5.5 50 M3 5.0 M2.1 4.0 3.0 M2 25 2.0 1.5 1.0 0 ‘95 ‘96 ‘97 ‘98 ‘99 ‘00 ‘01 ‘02 ‘03 ‘04 ‘05 ‘06 ‘07 ‘08 ‘09 ‘10 © SitePen, Inc. 2009. All Rights Reserved 22 Between ’95 and ’02 there were 16 major releases of IE across 4 platforms. From ‘02-’08 we have 2 releases on 1 platform. IE hit 90% market share in ’02. Clearly, there is some force that keeps market winners in this space from moving once they’ve won. We suspect it’s a lack of competition.
  • 25. IE Versions Over Time 100 U5.0 M5.2 8.0 75 U4.0 M5.0 7.0 (U3) M4.5 6.0 M4.0 5.5 50 M3 5.0 M2.1 4.0 3.0 M2 25 2.0 1.5 1.0 0 ‘95 ‘96 ‘97 ‘98 ‘99 ‘00 ‘01 ‘02 ‘03 ‘04 ‘05 ‘06 ‘07 ‘08 ‘09 ‘10 © SitePen, Inc. 2009. All Rights Reserved 22 Between ’95 and ’02 there were 16 major releases of IE across 4 platforms. From ‘02-’08 we have 2 releases on 1 platform. IE hit 90% market share in ’02. Clearly, there is some force that keeps market winners in this space from moving once they’ve won. We suspect it’s a lack of competition.
  • 26. Monocultures Reduce Costs In The Short Run © SitePen, Inc. 2009. All Rights Reserved 23 there is an asymmetric information problem which hopeful platforms like Flex and Silverlight are playing to: they hope to emerge in a dominant position by putting off the costs of monoculture until after they have “won”
  • 27. Monocultures Reduce Costs In The Short Run But can be sexy! © SitePen, Inc. 2009. All Rights Reserved 23 there is an asymmetric information problem which hopeful platforms like Flex and Silverlight are playing to: they hope to emerge in a dominant position by putting off the costs of monoculture until after they have “won”
  • 28. Are Web Browsers Prone To Natural Monopolies? © SitePen, Inc. 2009. All Rights Reserved 24
  • 29. Are Web Browsers Prone To Natural Monopolies? How Would Our Attitudes Change If We Expected Monopolies? © SitePen, Inc. 2009. All Rights Reserved 24
  • 30. hostage to deployed browsers Web-ish Desktop-ish © SitePen, Inc. 2009. All Rights Reserved 25 monocultures have the benefit of not being hostage to the upgrade cycles of the collective set of browsers. By reducing the variables for upgrades and control of the platform experience, closed platforms are able to deliver new capabilities faster. At least so far.
  • 31. rev independently Web-ish Desktop-ish © SitePen, Inc. 2009. All Rights Reserved 26
  • 32. Browser Economics: Standards Cost* 0% 25% 50% 75% 90% 100% Standards Compliance *Cost is an artificial number factoring in R&D and opportunity costs © SitePen, Inc. 2009. All Rights Reserved 27 there’s no advantage to being 100% standards compliant for any browser vendor except as a short-term cudgel browser vendors don’t make money on renderers...they make money on search. Investment in renderers (why developers care about a particular browser) aren’t justified by market share advances or monetary remuneration. Standards are overrated... they don’t help us compete with innovations
  • 33. Browser Economics: Standards 5% 95% Search Renderer *Based on Mozilla revenues © SitePen, Inc. 2009. All Rights Reserved 28 there’s no advantage to being 100% standards compliant for any browser vendor except as a short-term cudgel browser vendors don’t make money on renderers...they make money on search. Investment in renderers (why developers care about a particular browser) aren’t justified by market share advances or monetary remuneration. We need to ask more out of browser vendors
  • 34. Other Options? © SitePen, Inc. 2009. All Rights Reserved 29 Since we know that the upgrade cycles of browsers are somewhat out of our hands, how do we get to world where the economic interests are aligned? The browser guys aren’t on the hunt...so what next?
  • 35. Gears?! © SitePen, Inc. 2009. All Rights Reserved http://www.flickr.com/photos/jeffk/2459512927/ 30 Google Gears (and to a lesser extent, Yahoo Browser Plus) point to a possible structural solution: systems that are developed by organizations invested in content but which have leverage over the entire ecosystem of deployed browsers. Not handing this type of control over to closed vendors is also critically important to the future of a low-cost platform, and so an Open Source system that can hot-patch browsers may be our best path forward.
  • 36. AIR? Titanium? © SitePen, Inc. 2009. All Rights Reserved 31 Proprietary but great. Open but less mature.
  • 37. © SitePen, Inc. 2009. All Rights Reserved 32 Systems like Gears, today, cannot affect markup but can add new JavaScript API’s. This leads to a potential distortionary effect where new APIs don’t come in the from of tags and developers may consider progress to only be acceptable in guise of APIs and not tags. Given that markup is the lifeblood of the web development and that the progress of markup liberates features from the realms of programmers and gives them to mere mortals, what should we make of this? Not necessarily about right or wrong, but how much it costs (programmers vs. web developers).
  • 38. Will It Be Enough? © SitePen, Inc. 2009. All Rights Reserved 33
  • 39. Open Questions What is the role of semantics in apps vs. pages? What happens if a single vendor owns the plugin platform too? Does routing around browsers also throw the W3C under the bus? What should developers advocate for to browser vendors? © SitePen, Inc. 2009. All Rights Reserved 34
  • 40. Now What? HTML 5? JavaScript? ES4? Future of “Ajax” and toolkits? Technology choices? What about mobile? © SitePen, Inc. 2009. All Rights Reserved 35
  • 41. HTML 5 Not done yet! Adds semantics for many common cases tables/grids, video, audio, form repeating, “data templates”, ad-hoc attributes Standardizes error recovery in parsing XML is the bug that HTML 5 fixes Largely silent on layout Depends on CSS for new capabilities... and CSS 3 is dead on arrival © SitePen, Inc. 2009. All Rights Reserved 36
  • 42. What If JavaScript Got A Lot Better? © SitePen, Inc. 2009. All Rights Reserved 37
  • 43. What If JavaScript Got A Lot Better? Good news! It’s getting much better © SitePen, Inc. 2009. All Rights Reserved 37
  • 44. What If JavaScript Got A Lot Better? Good news! It’s getting much better Bad-ish news: just not in the ways most people expected © SitePen, Inc. 2009. All Rights Reserved 37
  • 45. What If JavaScript Got A Lot Better? Good news! It’s getting much better Bad-ish news: just not in the ways most people expected JavaScript 2, aka: ECMAScript 4, aka: ActionScript 3 Not happening ES 3.1 splinter group broke off from WG in early ’08 Harmony announcement in August Java-like class semantics likely never to appear Or at least not without some unification with prototypes Packages, namespaces now off the table © SitePen, Inc. 2009. All Rights Reserved 37
  • 46. The Buried Lead JavaScript is already a pretty good language JavaScript doesn’t need traditional classes to go faster New bumper crop of high-performance JS VM’s: Squirrelfish (Apple) TraceMonkey (Mozilla/Adobe) v8 (Google) SunSpider (Opera) JIT, DFA, tracing and trace tree folding no longer “exotic” or “research” Microsoft notably absent from the performance party © SitePen, Inc. 2009. All Rights Reserved 38
  • 47. The Enterprise Perspective © SitePen, Inc. 2009. All Rights Reserved http://flickr.com/photos/jalex_photo/390896449/ 39
  • 48. The Enterprise Perspective Enterprise support and training investments in IE Managed upgrade paths Accelerated rollouts of IE 8 can alleviate much pain External users may be on old browsers for 4+yrs IE 6 to be “flushed out” by mid-2010? Gears/YBP likely to have more impact than FF/Opera/ Chrome/Safari Primary choices: Ajax Toolkits or Flex/Silverlight © SitePen, Inc. 2009. All Rights Reserved 40
  • 49. What Should We Expect From Ajax? Toolkits play to least common denominator Looming performance differential Widening gap in quality of user experience between new browsers and old More Flash/Gears-as-fallback branching, creating implicit dependency on plugins Increasingly, new features may simply not work or may not be usable on down-rev, un-augmented browsers Toolkits will preview component models and provide bridges to better performing APIs © SitePen, Inc. 2009. All Rights Reserved 41 The yawning gap in performance between IE 6/7 and the latest versions of Chrome and WebKit creates a gigantic range of potential experiences for users on equivalent (modern) hardware but with slightly different software. In this environment, the role of toolkits will switch from papering over differences in capability to providing shims for tools like Gears and Flash to augment the native experience.
  • 50. Ajax Toolkits In Perspective jQuery, Prototype, Moo, Dojo Base: “Core” libraries for extension ecosystems...most easily replaced by browser innovation Dojo+Dijit, YUI, jQuery UI, Ext, Sprout Core: Comprehensive UI and plumbing frameworks. Will need to change in the face of browser evolution but also stand to gain most GWT, Other compilers: Orthogonal to, but gated by, browser evolution. Self- selected developer audiences. © SitePen, Inc. 2009. All Rights Reserved 42 Ajax toolkits all hit a particular niche, and the sweet spot for a toolkit like Dojo is in “HTML+ +” type applications which are still page-oriented and developed by people with web-app construction backgrounds. For “pure webdevs” who don’t know much programming, the state of the art will improve fastest based on native browser capabilities. Everyone else is likely to see large improvements, but continually mediated by toolkits.
  • 51. The Average Will Improve, Albeit Unevenly © SitePen, Inc. 2009. All Rights Reserved 43 Not ubiquitous performance Different dev costs
  • 52. CSS (D)Evolution CSS 3 recommendation process deeply broken More reliance on JavaScript for layout Layout primitives, ease-of-use key toolkit differentiators Markup or code? Or both? Forward compatibility with proposed specs Unsure future of CSS Standardize on an Ajax toolkit for the foreseeable future. Until the platform forces agreement, ROI is based on localized knowledge re-use. Performance concerns © SitePen, Inc. 2009. All Rights Reserved 44 It’s hard to say what will happen here. Either JavaScript toolkits will take it upon themselves to attempt to fix the layout primitives, relying on ever-better execution engines to help lessen the blow, or single browsers will race ahead and potentially fork/define a spec which the CSS WG will eventually (grudgingly) ratify. Many features need to be culled from SVG, and Firefox is already on the scent. The evolutionary path here has much risk.
  • 53. What About Flex/Silverlight? Responsive, affordable option in the short-term Reasonable choices for one-off and RAD situations Transparent platform plays... with an upside Stiff competition likely to drive quick improvements until market is settled If a single winner emerges, expect another “IE winter” Single vendor control by any other name... Adobe and MSFT are learning how to arbitrage the brand of Open Source (not just “standards”) Breaks text and indexability © SitePen, Inc. 2009. All Rights Reserved 45 Flex/Silverlight represent great short-term choices, and their long-term problem is in building and keeping trust. In large part, this is due to the organizations that have produced them and the tooling revenue models they are attached to.
  • 54. The Abiding Sorrow Of Mobile © SitePen, Inc. 2009. All Rights Reserved 46
  • 55. Mobile and Rich App Technologies Flash/Silverlight mobile experience is app-oriented, not browsing-oriented Mobile is where browsers improve fastest Apps (not static content) require re-development for mobile regardless of rendering tech UX, not technology, requires rethink “Web” not a be-all, end-all container on mobile Mobile apps will be roughly OS/browser-specific for next several years at the high-end © SitePen, Inc. 2009. All Rights Reserved 47
  • 56. The Long View IE will not hold High-performance alternatives will replace it “Open Web” plugin The growing disparity presents a huge financial loss Open development model likely to depend on Ajax/ JavaScript in RIA space for the foreseeable future Flex/Silverlight likely to make inroads, but will be curtailed by (rational) mistrust of Adobe and MSFT The next 2 years will tell if codec licensing is RIA endgame © SitePen, Inc. 2009. All Rights Reserved 48 The race for high-performance open web browsers is once again “on”. Given that IE is evolving, there will continue to be huge pressure on the IE team to either support the killer apps which better browsers enable or will be forcibly augmented.
  • 57. Questions and Key URLs SitePen sitepen.com Dojo Toolkit dojotoolkit.org Dojo Foundation dojofoundation.org Dijit dojotoolkit.org Dojo Campus dojocampus.org Comet cometd.com Comet Daily cometdaily.com Dylan Schiemann dylan@sitepen.com © SitePen, Inc. 2009. All Rights Reserved 49
  • 58. Thank You © SitePen, Inc. 2009. All Rights Reserved 50