1. Overnight Market Wrap
Monday September 26, 2011
Page 1 of 2
A little bit of relief…but for
how long?
Wayne Yu + 1 201 988 1603
Equity markets closed higher, but not Emerging Markets Sales and Trading
without huge volatility. yuxx@aol.com
Equities reversed huge losses in Europe and pre-market
S&P futures trading, closing with relative calm. But fear
remained as the Volatility Index barely moved. A little
Risk On with weakness in Treasuries and the
Dollar...attributed perhaps to confidence in action from
Market Overview
this weekend’s G20 meeting? Certainly widespread
chatter of intervention around. Talk of an ECB rate cut at
Top Emerging Markets Change
its next meeting. Rumors that central banks from Brazil to
ADR Movers
Indonesia had intervened to stem the slide in emerging
China Eastern Airlines (CEA) ▲8.06%
markets currencies. And reports that France would shore
China Telecom (CHA) ▲6.10%
up its banks ahead of a possible Greek default. Barring a
Patni Computer (PTI) ▲6.00%
huge disappointment out of the G20 this weekend, look
Yanzhou Coal (YZC) ▲5.67%
for at least some stability come the Asia open.
Sinopec (SNP) ▲5.18%
Novogen (NVGN) ▼8.20%
No joy though for commodities. Harmony Gold (HMY) ▼6.33%
Commodities fell for a third day, led by a plunge in Randgold (GOLD) ▼6.33%
metals. Chatter of margin calls and economic slowdown Gold Fields (GFI) ▼4.76%
fears hurt gold and silver hardest. Pure play names fared Woori Finance (WF) ▼4.53%
worst, with Gold Fields (GFI.SJ) and Harmony Gold
(HAR.SJ) ADRs closing at steep discounts to parity. Coal Most Active Emerging Change
stocks were mixed after recent declines, with Yanzhou Markets ADRs
Coal (1171.HK) ADRs closing at an 80bp discount. Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) ▲1.65%
Diversified and industrial names fared better. Melco Crown (MPEL) ▲5.05%
ArcelorMittal (MT.NA), reaffirmed guidance and said Teva (TEVA) ▼0.37%
there are signs of a slowdown, but sees no recession. United Microelectronics (UMC) ▲5.03%
BHP Billiton (BHP.AU), Chalco (2600.HK), and Posco Gold Fields (GFI) ▼4.76%
(005490.KS) ADRs closed at premiums to parity. Copper BHP Billiton (BHP) ▲0.68%
stocks also rose despite weakness in the metal…watch Harmony Gold (HMY) ▼6.33%
Jiangxi Copper (358.HK). Also watch Glencore (GLEN.LN Mitsubishi UFJ (MTU) ▲2.43%
/ 805.HK), whose London shares closed at a big 2.4% Siliconware (SPIL) ▲2.44%
premium to the HK line. AngloGold Ashanti (AU) ▼2.44%
Is consumer spending really slowing? Most Active US Listed Change
Chinese Shares
Well…it’s a mixed picture. Baidu (BIDU) ▲0.18%
Asian consumers love their sports and gambling. Nike JA Solar (JASO) ▲4.76%
(NKE.US) had strong results that included a 35% sales Youku.com (YOKU) ▲21.66%
increase in emerging markets, which was likely at the Suntech Power (STP) ▼2.58%
expense of local names such as Li Ning (2331.HK) and Yingli Green (YGE) ▼1.70%
361 Degrees (1361.HK), as consumers favor international Trina Solar (TSL) ▲3.36%
brands. And after yesterday’s rally in HK listed casino CTrip.com (CTRP) ▲6.42%
shares, we saw a huge gain for Melco Crown (MPEL.US). E-Commerce China (DANG) ▲13.11%
The strength confirmed by August numbers showing a ReneSola (SOL) ▲7.21%
14% gain in Macau visitor arrivals. Focus Media (FMCN) ▼2.91%
2. Overnight Market Wrap
Monday September 26, 2011
However, luxury consumers may hunker down on losses Page 2 of 2
in the market. Witness the lag in names like Burberry
(BRBY.LN), LVMH (MC.FP), and Daimler (DAI.GR). Look
for underperformance for names like Prada (1913.HK), Market Overview continued
Esprit (330.HK), and Geely (175.HK). Li & Fung (494.HK)
could benefit as consumers favor lower cost goods. We’ll Top US Listed Chinese Change
get more clues on the health of the Chinese consumer Movers
with the upcoming weeklong National Day holiday. Youku.com (YOKU) ▲21.66%
China Ming Yang Wind (MY) ▲16.93%
Kingtone Wirelessinfo (KONE) ▲15.84%
Time to pick through the Chinese Internet Global Education (GEDU) ▲13.98%
carnage? E-Commerce China (DANG) ▲13.11%
Susquehanna thinks so, after upgrading Youku.com
(YOKU.US) and calling it a takeover target, with Tencent Agria (GRO) ▼16.28%
(700.HK) and China Mobile (941.HK) as likely buyers. China GrenTech (GRRF) ▼13.49%
Youku.com surged 21.6%. The group was also helped by IFM Investments (CTC) ▼12.00%
Alibaba’s private raise, which valued the firm at $32B, China Xiniya Fashion (XNY) ▼10.18%
adding fuel to chatter of consolidation. Yahoo! Lentuo International (LAS) ▼9.35%
(YHOO.US), which owns a stake in Alibaba, has itself
been the center of takeover speculation. Country ETF Premiums / Discounts to NAV
Sina (SINA.US) rose 6.2% after Nomura said the recent Premium /
decline was overdone. Elsewhere, E-Commerce China Country Ticker Discount
Dangdang (DANG.US) rose 13.1% on plans to open two Australia EWA ▼0.27%
additional centers to cut delivery times. NetEase.com China FXI ▲0.43%
(NTES.US), Shanda Games (GAME.US), and Sohu.com Hong Kong EWH ▲0.96%
(SOHU.US), also saw big gains. Japan EWJ ▼0.96%
India INDY ▲0.22%
Dark future ahead for solar power? Singapore EWS ▼0.23%
South Africa EZA ▼0.70%
Mizuho wrote a bearish note on US listed Chinese solar
South Korea EWY ▼0.51%
names, downgrading Suntech (STP.US) and Trina Solar
Taiwan EWT ▲0.84%
(TSL.US), and saying most companies will lose money
thru 2012. Despite the call, most names posted gains.
Noteworthy Emerging Markets ADR
Hanwha (HSOL.US), which secured a $100M credit
Premiums / Discounts to Parity
facility, rose 11.3%, while Renesola (SOL.US) rose 7.2%.
Also in clean tech, Daiwa said the outlook for China wind ADR Premium /
power was hurt by possible delays in grid investment, and Discount
named China Longyuan (916.HK) as their top pick. The HDFC Bank (HDB) ▲3.6%
only US listed Chinese wind name, China Ming Yang Infosys (INFY) ▲1.9%
Wind (MY.US), surged 16.9%, after three days of losses. ICICI Bank (IBN) ▲1.6%
Aluminum Corp (ACH) ▲1.4%
Other highlights… China Mobile (CHL) ▲1.4%
US listed Chinese property names, such as China Real
Estate Information (CRIC.US), E-House (EJ.US), and Mizuho Financial (MFG) ▼3.2%
SouFun (SFUN.US), followed their Shanghai listed peers Harmony Gold (HMY) ▼2.9%
higher, after Samsung Securities called the recent decline Gold Fields (GFI) ▼1.9%
overdone. E-House was the strongest, rising 9.8%. SK Telecom (SKM) ▼1.9%
Korea Electric Power (KEP) ▼1.1%
Focus Media (FMCN.US) fell 2.9% after Barclay’s
lowered their global advertising growth forecast, citing
weaker macro expectations. Barclay’s sees 2012 global
ad growth at 4.2%, and Asia at 6%.