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Overnight Market Wrap
Monday September 26, 2011
Page 1 of 2



A little bit of relief…but for
how long?
                                                             Wayne Yu                   + 1 201 988 1603
Equity markets closed higher, but not                        Emerging Markets Sales and Trading
without huge volatility.                                     yuxx@aol.com
Equities reversed huge losses in Europe and pre-market
S&P futures trading, closing with relative calm. But fear
remained as the Volatility Index barely moved. A little
Risk On with weakness in Treasuries and the
Dollar...attributed perhaps to confidence in action from
                                                             Market Overview
this weekend’s G20 meeting? Certainly widespread
chatter of intervention around. Talk of an ECB rate cut at
                                                             Top Emerging Markets            Change
its next meeting. Rumors that central banks from Brazil to
                                                             ADR Movers
Indonesia had intervened to stem the slide in emerging
                                                             China Eastern Airlines (CEA)    ▲8.06%
markets currencies. And reports that France would shore
                                                             China Telecom (CHA)             ▲6.10%
up its banks ahead of a possible Greek default. Barring a
                                                             Patni Computer (PTI)            ▲6.00%
huge disappointment out of the G20 this weekend, look
                                                             Yanzhou Coal (YZC)              ▲5.67%
for at least some stability come the Asia open.
                                                             Sinopec (SNP)                   ▲5.18%
                                                             Novogen (NVGN)                  ▼8.20%
No joy though for commodities.                               Harmony Gold (HMY)              ▼6.33%
Commodities fell for a third day, led by a plunge in         Randgold (GOLD)                 ▼6.33%
metals. Chatter of margin calls and economic slowdown        Gold Fields (GFI)               ▼4.76%
fears hurt gold and silver hardest. Pure play names fared    Woori Finance (WF)              ▼4.53%
worst, with Gold Fields (GFI.SJ) and Harmony Gold
(HAR.SJ) ADRs closing at steep discounts to parity. Coal     Most Active Emerging            Change
stocks were mixed after recent declines, with Yanzhou        Markets ADRs
Coal (1171.HK) ADRs closing at an 80bp discount.             Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM)      ▲1.65%
Diversified and industrial names fared better.               Melco Crown (MPEL)              ▲5.05%
ArcelorMittal (MT.NA), reaffirmed guidance and said          Teva (TEVA)                     ▼0.37%
there are signs of a slowdown, but sees no recession.        United Microelectronics (UMC)   ▲5.03%
BHP Billiton (BHP.AU), Chalco (2600.HK), and Posco           Gold Fields (GFI)               ▼4.76%
(005490.KS) ADRs closed at premiums to parity. Copper        BHP Billiton (BHP)              ▲0.68%
stocks also rose despite weakness in the metal…watch         Harmony Gold (HMY)              ▼6.33%
Jiangxi Copper (358.HK). Also watch Glencore (GLEN.LN        Mitsubishi UFJ (MTU)            ▲2.43%
/ 805.HK), whose London shares closed at a big 2.4%          Siliconware (SPIL)              ▲2.44%
premium to the HK line.                                      AngloGold Ashanti (AU)          ▼2.44%

Is consumer spending really slowing?                         Most Active US Listed           Change
                                                             Chinese Shares
Well…it’s a mixed picture.                                   Baidu (BIDU)                    ▲0.18%
Asian consumers love their sports and gambling. Nike         JA Solar (JASO)                 ▲4.76%
(NKE.US) had strong results that included a 35% sales        Youku.com (YOKU)                ▲21.66%
increase in emerging markets, which was likely at the        Suntech Power (STP)             ▼2.58%
expense of local names such as Li Ning (2331.HK) and         Yingli Green (YGE)              ▼1.70%
361 Degrees (1361.HK), as consumers favor international      Trina Solar (TSL)               ▲3.36%
brands. And after yesterday’s rally in HK listed casino      CTrip.com (CTRP)                ▲6.42%
shares, we saw a huge gain for Melco Crown (MPEL.US).        E-Commerce China (DANG)         ▲13.11%
The strength confirmed by August numbers showing a           ReneSola (SOL)                  ▲7.21%
14% gain in Macau visitor arrivals.                          Focus Media (FMCN)              ▼2.91%
Overnight Market Wrap
                                                                              Monday September 26, 2011


However, luxury consumers may hunker down on losses                                              Page 2 of 2
in the market. Witness the lag in names like Burberry
(BRBY.LN), LVMH (MC.FP), and Daimler (DAI.GR). Look
for underperformance for names like Prada (1913.HK),         Market Overview continued
Esprit (330.HK), and Geely (175.HK). Li & Fung (494.HK)
could benefit as consumers favor lower cost goods. We’ll     Top US Listed Chinese          Change
get more clues on the health of the Chinese consumer         Movers
with the upcoming weeklong National Day holiday.             Youku.com (YOKU)               ▲21.66%
                                                             China Ming Yang Wind (MY)      ▲16.93%
                                                             Kingtone Wirelessinfo (KONE)   ▲15.84%
Time to pick through the Chinese Internet                    Global Education (GEDU)        ▲13.98%
carnage?                                                     E-Commerce China (DANG)        ▲13.11%
Susquehanna thinks so, after upgrading Youku.com
(YOKU.US) and calling it a takeover target, with Tencent     Agria (GRO)                    ▼16.28%
(700.HK) and China Mobile (941.HK) as likely buyers.         China GrenTech (GRRF)          ▼13.49%
Youku.com surged 21.6%. The group was also helped by         IFM Investments (CTC)          ▼12.00%
Alibaba’s private raise, which valued the firm at $32B,      China Xiniya Fashion (XNY)     ▼10.18%
adding fuel to chatter of consolidation. Yahoo!              Lentuo International (LAS)     ▼9.35%
(YHOO.US), which owns a stake in Alibaba, has itself
been the center of takeover speculation.                     Country ETF Premiums / Discounts to NAV
Sina (SINA.US) rose 6.2% after Nomura said the recent                                    Premium /
decline was overdone. Elsewhere, E-Commerce China            Country       Ticker        Discount
Dangdang (DANG.US) rose 13.1% on plans to open two           Australia     EWA           ▼0.27%
additional centers to cut delivery times. NetEase.com        China         FXI           ▲0.43%
(NTES.US), Shanda Games (GAME.US), and Sohu.com              Hong Kong     EWH           ▲0.96%
(SOHU.US), also saw big gains.                               Japan         EWJ           ▼0.96%
                                                             India         INDY          ▲0.22%
Dark future ahead for solar power?                           Singapore     EWS           ▼0.23%
                                                             South Africa  EZA           ▼0.70%
Mizuho wrote a bearish note on US listed Chinese solar
                                                             South Korea   EWY           ▼0.51%
names, downgrading Suntech (STP.US) and Trina Solar
                                                             Taiwan        EWT           ▲0.84%
(TSL.US), and saying most companies will lose money
thru 2012. Despite the call, most names posted gains.
                                                             Noteworthy Emerging Markets ADR
Hanwha (HSOL.US), which secured a $100M credit
                                                             Premiums / Discounts to Parity
facility, rose 11.3%, while Renesola (SOL.US) rose 7.2%.
Also in clean tech, Daiwa said the outlook for China wind    ADR                            Premium /
power was hurt by possible delays in grid investment, and                                   Discount
named China Longyuan (916.HK) as their top pick. The         HDFC Bank (HDB)                ▲3.6%
only US listed Chinese wind name, China Ming Yang            Infosys (INFY)                 ▲1.9%
Wind (MY.US), surged 16.9%, after three days of losses.      ICICI Bank (IBN)               ▲1.6%
                                                             Aluminum Corp (ACH)            ▲1.4%
Other highlights…                                            China Mobile (CHL)             ▲1.4%
US listed Chinese property names, such as China Real
Estate Information (CRIC.US), E-House (EJ.US), and           Mizuho Financial (MFG)         ▼3.2%
SouFun (SFUN.US), followed their Shanghai listed peers       Harmony Gold (HMY)             ▼2.9%
higher, after Samsung Securities called the recent decline   Gold Fields (GFI)              ▼1.9%
overdone. E-House was the strongest, rising 9.8%.            SK Telecom (SKM)               ▼1.9%
                                                             Korea Electric Power (KEP)     ▼1.1%
Focus Media (FMCN.US) fell 2.9% after Barclay’s
lowered their global advertising growth forecast, citing
weaker macro expectations. Barclay’s sees 2012 global
ad growth at 4.2%, and Asia at 6%.

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Overnight Market Wrap 9.26.2011

  • 1. Overnight Market Wrap Monday September 26, 2011 Page 1 of 2 A little bit of relief…but for how long? Wayne Yu + 1 201 988 1603 Equity markets closed higher, but not Emerging Markets Sales and Trading without huge volatility. yuxx@aol.com Equities reversed huge losses in Europe and pre-market S&P futures trading, closing with relative calm. But fear remained as the Volatility Index barely moved. A little Risk On with weakness in Treasuries and the Dollar...attributed perhaps to confidence in action from Market Overview this weekend’s G20 meeting? Certainly widespread chatter of intervention around. Talk of an ECB rate cut at Top Emerging Markets Change its next meeting. Rumors that central banks from Brazil to ADR Movers Indonesia had intervened to stem the slide in emerging China Eastern Airlines (CEA) ▲8.06% markets currencies. And reports that France would shore China Telecom (CHA) ▲6.10% up its banks ahead of a possible Greek default. Barring a Patni Computer (PTI) ▲6.00% huge disappointment out of the G20 this weekend, look Yanzhou Coal (YZC) ▲5.67% for at least some stability come the Asia open. Sinopec (SNP) ▲5.18% Novogen (NVGN) ▼8.20% No joy though for commodities. Harmony Gold (HMY) ▼6.33% Commodities fell for a third day, led by a plunge in Randgold (GOLD) ▼6.33% metals. Chatter of margin calls and economic slowdown Gold Fields (GFI) ▼4.76% fears hurt gold and silver hardest. Pure play names fared Woori Finance (WF) ▼4.53% worst, with Gold Fields (GFI.SJ) and Harmony Gold (HAR.SJ) ADRs closing at steep discounts to parity. Coal Most Active Emerging Change stocks were mixed after recent declines, with Yanzhou Markets ADRs Coal (1171.HK) ADRs closing at an 80bp discount. Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) ▲1.65% Diversified and industrial names fared better. Melco Crown (MPEL) ▲5.05% ArcelorMittal (MT.NA), reaffirmed guidance and said Teva (TEVA) ▼0.37% there are signs of a slowdown, but sees no recession. United Microelectronics (UMC) ▲5.03% BHP Billiton (BHP.AU), Chalco (2600.HK), and Posco Gold Fields (GFI) ▼4.76% (005490.KS) ADRs closed at premiums to parity. Copper BHP Billiton (BHP) ▲0.68% stocks also rose despite weakness in the metal…watch Harmony Gold (HMY) ▼6.33% Jiangxi Copper (358.HK). Also watch Glencore (GLEN.LN Mitsubishi UFJ (MTU) ▲2.43% / 805.HK), whose London shares closed at a big 2.4% Siliconware (SPIL) ▲2.44% premium to the HK line. AngloGold Ashanti (AU) ▼2.44% Is consumer spending really slowing? Most Active US Listed Change Chinese Shares Well…it’s a mixed picture. Baidu (BIDU) ▲0.18% Asian consumers love their sports and gambling. Nike JA Solar (JASO) ▲4.76% (NKE.US) had strong results that included a 35% sales Youku.com (YOKU) ▲21.66% increase in emerging markets, which was likely at the Suntech Power (STP) ▼2.58% expense of local names such as Li Ning (2331.HK) and Yingli Green (YGE) ▼1.70% 361 Degrees (1361.HK), as consumers favor international Trina Solar (TSL) ▲3.36% brands. And after yesterday’s rally in HK listed casino CTrip.com (CTRP) ▲6.42% shares, we saw a huge gain for Melco Crown (MPEL.US). E-Commerce China (DANG) ▲13.11% The strength confirmed by August numbers showing a ReneSola (SOL) ▲7.21% 14% gain in Macau visitor arrivals. Focus Media (FMCN) ▼2.91%
  • 2. Overnight Market Wrap Monday September 26, 2011 However, luxury consumers may hunker down on losses Page 2 of 2 in the market. Witness the lag in names like Burberry (BRBY.LN), LVMH (MC.FP), and Daimler (DAI.GR). Look for underperformance for names like Prada (1913.HK), Market Overview continued Esprit (330.HK), and Geely (175.HK). Li & Fung (494.HK) could benefit as consumers favor lower cost goods. We’ll Top US Listed Chinese Change get more clues on the health of the Chinese consumer Movers with the upcoming weeklong National Day holiday. Youku.com (YOKU) ▲21.66% China Ming Yang Wind (MY) ▲16.93% Kingtone Wirelessinfo (KONE) ▲15.84% Time to pick through the Chinese Internet Global Education (GEDU) ▲13.98% carnage? E-Commerce China (DANG) ▲13.11% Susquehanna thinks so, after upgrading Youku.com (YOKU.US) and calling it a takeover target, with Tencent Agria (GRO) ▼16.28% (700.HK) and China Mobile (941.HK) as likely buyers. China GrenTech (GRRF) ▼13.49% Youku.com surged 21.6%. The group was also helped by IFM Investments (CTC) ▼12.00% Alibaba’s private raise, which valued the firm at $32B, China Xiniya Fashion (XNY) ▼10.18% adding fuel to chatter of consolidation. Yahoo! Lentuo International (LAS) ▼9.35% (YHOO.US), which owns a stake in Alibaba, has itself been the center of takeover speculation. Country ETF Premiums / Discounts to NAV Sina (SINA.US) rose 6.2% after Nomura said the recent Premium / decline was overdone. Elsewhere, E-Commerce China Country Ticker Discount Dangdang (DANG.US) rose 13.1% on plans to open two Australia EWA ▼0.27% additional centers to cut delivery times. NetEase.com China FXI ▲0.43% (NTES.US), Shanda Games (GAME.US), and Sohu.com Hong Kong EWH ▲0.96% (SOHU.US), also saw big gains. Japan EWJ ▼0.96% India INDY ▲0.22% Dark future ahead for solar power? Singapore EWS ▼0.23% South Africa EZA ▼0.70% Mizuho wrote a bearish note on US listed Chinese solar South Korea EWY ▼0.51% names, downgrading Suntech (STP.US) and Trina Solar Taiwan EWT ▲0.84% (TSL.US), and saying most companies will lose money thru 2012. Despite the call, most names posted gains. Noteworthy Emerging Markets ADR Hanwha (HSOL.US), which secured a $100M credit Premiums / Discounts to Parity facility, rose 11.3%, while Renesola (SOL.US) rose 7.2%. Also in clean tech, Daiwa said the outlook for China wind ADR Premium / power was hurt by possible delays in grid investment, and Discount named China Longyuan (916.HK) as their top pick. The HDFC Bank (HDB) ▲3.6% only US listed Chinese wind name, China Ming Yang Infosys (INFY) ▲1.9% Wind (MY.US), surged 16.9%, after three days of losses. ICICI Bank (IBN) ▲1.6% Aluminum Corp (ACH) ▲1.4% Other highlights… China Mobile (CHL) ▲1.4% US listed Chinese property names, such as China Real Estate Information (CRIC.US), E-House (EJ.US), and Mizuho Financial (MFG) ▼3.2% SouFun (SFUN.US), followed their Shanghai listed peers Harmony Gold (HMY) ▼2.9% higher, after Samsung Securities called the recent decline Gold Fields (GFI) ▼1.9% overdone. E-House was the strongest, rising 9.8%. SK Telecom (SKM) ▼1.9% Korea Electric Power (KEP) ▼1.1% Focus Media (FMCN.US) fell 2.9% after Barclay’s lowered their global advertising growth forecast, citing weaker macro expectations. Barclay’s sees 2012 global ad growth at 4.2%, and Asia at 6%.