This document discusses models of foreign policy decision making. It defines foreign policy decision making as choices made by individuals or groups that result in international policies or strategies. It describes several models of decision making including bounded rationality, organizational politics, bureaucratic politics, and prospect theory. It also outlines the typical stages in foreign policy decision making which include assessing the environment, setting goals, determining options, formal decision making, and implementation.

1. DECISION MAKING MODEL
IN FOREIGN POLICIES

2. DEFINITION
 Choices made by individuals, small groups, or coalitions representing
nation-states result in policies or strategies with international outcomes.
Foreign policy decision-making, an approach to international relations, is
aimed at studying such decisions.

3. The focus on decision making can be characterized as micro-theory. It has two defining features:
(1) an emphasis on the decision-making process rather than simply outcomes, and
(2) the focus on attributes of individual decision-makers.As such, foreign policy decision making concerns
human agency, which may entail no more than the incentives and constraints facing individual decision-
makers. However, much of the research examines the perceptions, biases, beliefs, and decision rules of
decision-makers.

4. MODELS OF DECISION
Foreign policy decisions are
usually made by the executive
branch of government.
Common governmental actors
or institutions which make
foreign policy decisions include:
the head of state (such as a
president) or head of
government (such as a prime
minister), cabinet, or minister.

5. Cross-disciplinary research on organizational behavior during the 1950s and 1960s began to specify a model
of decision making that contrasted with the rational model discussed above. Models of decision making
typically specify processing characteristics by describing how individuals acquire and assess information, as
well as how a final choice is selected among alternatives under consideration.These information processing
characteristics and decision rules may lead to biases and deviations from an ideal rational choice.

6. MODELS OF DECISION
Bounded Rationality/Cybernetic Model
Simon (1957) proposed a model of bounded rationality.According to the model, individuals are thought to possess
cognitive constraints on their information-processing capacities such that it is impossible for a decision-maker to
identify all potential alternatives and adequately assess their implications. If a dynamic model of sequential decision
making is considered, the problem is further complicated. Simon suggests that a decision made today may yield
optimal benefits for the current problem, but the current decision may actually work against an optimal outcome in
subsequent decision problems.
The model of bounded rationality/cybernetic decision making assumes an order-sensitive search process by which
the sequence in which alternatives are considered will influence the selection of a choice

7. MODELS OF DECISION
Organizational Politics Model
An outgrowth of Simon’s (1957) work on bounded rationality is the organizational process model.
Although the organizational process model had existed for some time, and bedrock studies (Snyder et al. 1954;
Rosenau 1966) posited the importance of organizational roles,Allison (1969; 1971: ch. 3) was perhaps the first to
apply the model to a foreign policy decision in his analysis of the Cuban Missile Crisis. He argues that the decision
to blockade Cuba can be understood as an available option – i.e., such options as a “surgical” air strike were not
said to be available as a routine option – with a preexisting plan for implementation. Since Allison’s (1971) work,
however, relatively little effort has been made to apply the organizational process model to foreign policy decisions.
Welch (1992) suggests that this may be the case because there has been some conflation of the organizational
process model with the bureaucratic politics model.

8. MODELS OF DECISION
Bureaucratic Politics Model
The bureaucratic politics model has its roots in research on bureaucracies and foreign policy.
The process by which decisions are made can be characterized by the “pulling and hauling” of group bargaining
(Allison and Halperin 1972:43).The choice selected by the group is likely to reflect the preferences of the group
member(s) who is best able to garner “bargaining advantages, skill and will in using bargaining advantages, and other
players’ perceptions of the first two ingredients”
The model assumes that the US president is among equals in the cabinet (Rosati 1981). But the president has
sufficient authority to overrule any member of the cabinet

9. MODELS OF DECISION
ProspectTheory
Unlike the rational choice approach, prospect theory assumes that preferences over alternatives are not transitive,
but depend on net asset levels vis-à-vis a reference point – gains and losses from a frame of reference (Kahneman
andTversky 1979:277). Decision-makers treat gains and losses asymmetrically, overvaluing losses relative to
commensurate gains.This asymmetry produces a nonlinear utility function characterized by greater steepness on
the loss side than on the gain side.

10. STAGES IN DECISION MAKING

11. The making of foreign policy involves a number of stages:
• Assessment of the international and domestic political
environment - Foreign policy is made and implemented
within an international and domestic political context, which
must be understood by a state in order to determine the
best foreign policy option. For example, a state may need to
respond to an international crisis.
• Goal setting - A state has multiple foreign policy goals.A
state must determine which goal is affected by the
international and domestic political environment at any given
time. In addition, foreign policy goals may conflict, which will
require the state to prioritize.

12. • Determination of policy options - A state must then determine what
policy options are available to meet the goal or goals set in light of the
political environment.This will involve an assessment of the state's
capacity implement policy options and an assessment of the
consequences of each policy option.
• Formal decision making action - A formal foreign policy decision will be
taken at some level within a government. Foreign policy decisions are
usually made by the executive branch of government. Common
governmental actors or institutions which make foreign policy decisions
include: the head of state (such as a president) or head of government
(such as a prime minister), cabinet, or minister.
• Implementation of chosen policy option - Once a foreign policy option
has been chosen, and a formal decision has been made, then the policy
must be implemented. Foreign policy is most commonly implemented by
specialist foreign policy arms of the state bureaucracy, such as a Ministry
of Foreign Affairs or State Department. Other departments may also
have a role in implementing foreign policy, such as departments for:
trade, defence, and aid.