What advertisers can learn about winning from the 2012 Presidential Race (Celestin F-H) Will Feltus, SVP, National Media **Ken Goldstein, President, Kantar Media Campaign Media Analysis Group Moderated by: Jack Poor, VP Marketing Insights, Political Research & Analysis, TVB

1. What advertisers can learn about winning and losing
from the 2012 Presidential campaign
Will Feltus
SVP, National Media Research, Planning and Placement LLC
Ken Goldstein
President, Kantar Media Campaign Media Analysis Group

2. Agenda
• What political campaigns do.
• How voters use media today. Some examples.
• Gaining separation: differences between the Obama
and Romney campaigns on television.
• Don’t run your next campaign like your last one. What’s ahead.

3. Client
Creative &
Account Mgt.
Media Buyer

4. Beginning with Bush in 2000, a few large political
campaigns began separating the creative and media
functions. But most still use the old model.
Old Model
Modern Model
Client Client
Creative & Creative Team Media Team
Account Mgt.
Media Buyer

5. WHAT CAMPAIGNS DO: A MODEL
DATA ANALYTICS & VOTER COMPETITIVE TRACKING
RESEARCH
VOTER TARGETING
Define & Redefine
INTERNAL TRACKING
CREATIVE TESTING
MESSAGING COMMUNICATIONS
& CREATIVE STRATEGY &
STRATEGY BUDGET
FUNDRAISING MEDIA
RESEARCH
DONOR DEVELOPMENT
COMMUNICATIONS CHANNELS
News Paid Internet + Direct voter
media advertising social media contact

6. COMPETITIVE TRACKING
DATA ANALYTICS
& VOTER RESEARCH
WHAT CAMPAIGNS DO: A MODEL o Forward-looking monitoring of
o Historical voting data. ad dollars ordered by opponents
o Demographic and and third-party allies
consumer behavior data. o Daily advertising placements
o Benchmark polling and and creatives from
micro-targeting surveys. Kantar/CMAG
VOTER TARGETING o News volume and sentiment.
o Enhanced voter file and
database. Define & Redefine
INTERNAL TRACKING
CREATIVE TESTING MESSAGING COMMUNICATIONS o Tracking of news volume and
o Focus and dial groups. & CREATIVE STRATEGY & sentiment, website
o Field experiments. activity, social media traffic and
STRATEGY BUDGET trends, political elite buzz.
o Internet surveys & A/B testing.
o Polling. o Tracking polls.
o Voter contact data and
MEDIA RESEARCH analytics.
o Nielsen, Arbitron, Comsco
FUNDRAISING re.
o Scarborough, MRI, Simm
ons, Rentrak.
DONOR DEVELOPMENT o Field experiments.
o Donor relationship management. o Communication costs and
o Major donor feedback. fundraising forecasts.
o New/repeat donors and dollars.
COMMUNICATIONS CHANNELS
News Paid Internet + Direct voter
media advertising social media contact

7. Voters are
consumers of politics.
Consumption level
Brand preference

8. HIGH TURNOUT
Voters are
Voter Turnout
consumers of politics.
Index
Consumption level
Brand preference
TURNOUT
LOW
DEMOCRAT SKEW Republican Index Minus Democrat Index REPUBLICAN SKEW

9. High Turnout Democrat Voters High Turnout Republican Voters
HIGH TURNOUT
Voter Turnout
Index
100
TURNOUT
LOW
Low Turnout Democrat Voters Low Turnout Republican Voters
0
DEMOCRAT SKEW Republican Index Minus Democrat Index REPUBLICAN SKEW

10. High Turnout Republican Voters
Porsche
140 Jaguar
Republicans drive more cars
HIGH TURNOUT
than Democrats. Volvo
130
Lincoln
120 Buick
Cadillac Lexus
Voter Turnout Index
Mercedes
Toyota Acura
110 Chrysler
Mazda
BMW
GMC
100 Honda Ford Jeep
Chevrolet
90
U.S. Political Profile:
TURNOUT
LOW
80
Automobile Ownership
70
-50 -40 -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70
DEMOCRAT SKEW Republican Index Minus Democrat Index REPUBLICAN SKEW

11. High Turnout Democrat Voters High Turnout Republican Voters Porsche
HIGH TURNOUT 140 Jaguar
Any Hybrid vehicle
Volvo
130
Saab
Subaru
Lincoln
120 Mini Buick
Cadillac Lexus
Voter Turnout Index
Mercedes
Suzuki Toyota Acura Chrysler
110
Audi Mazda
Volkswagen BMW
GMC
Hyundai
100 Honda Ford Jeep
Kia
Chevrolet
Nissan Pontiac Dodge
90
Geo
TURNOUT
Mitsubishi
LOW
80
Plymouth
70
-50
Low Turnout Democrat Voters
-40 -30 -20 -10 0 10 20
Low Turnout Republican Voters
30 40 50 60 70
DEMOCRAT SKEW Republican Index Minus Democrat Index REPUBLICAN SKEW

12. 140
Sauvignon Blanc Political Happy Hour Chardonnay
HIGH TURNOUT
Cabernet Sauvignon
130 Brut/Brut Extra Dry Shiraz/Syrah Scotch whisky
Merlot
Any microbrew Pinot Noir
Pinot Grigio Labatt Blue Canadian whiskey
Gin
120
White Zinfandel Samuel Adams
Red Zinfandel Guinness
Rolling Rock Bourbon whiskey
Voter Turnout Index
Michelob Light Michelob Ultra
110 Stella Artois Amstel Light
Blue Moon
Miller Genuine Draft
Brandy Vodka
Dos Equis Miller Lite
100
Coors Light Coors Original
Milwaukee's Best Heineken
Corona Light
Tequila Rum
90
Cognac Bud Light
Budweiser
Miller High Life
80 Corona
Tecate
TURNOUT
Busch Light
LOW
Busch Natural Light
70
Any malt liquor
60
-80 -70 -60 -50 -40 -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 40 50
DEMOCRAT SKEW Republican Index Minus Democrat Index REPUBLICAN SKEW

13. HIGH TURNOUT 130 National/network news
Republicans drive more cars,
120 while Democrats watch more television. Local news - evening
Local news - morning Documentaries Religious
110 Sports
Local news - late
Late night talk Dramas Mystery/suspense/crime
Voter Turnout Index
100
Game shows Comedies
Daytime talk shows Science fiction Reality - adventure
90
Daytime soap operas Reality - talent
Court shows
80
Reality - dating
70
Kids shows
Music videos
TURNOUT
60
LOW
50
Novelas
40
-70 -60 -50 -40 -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30
DEMOCRAT SKEW Republican Index Minus Democrat Index REPUBLICAN SKEW

14. 130
U.S. Overall Media
HIGH TURNOUT
Newspaper 1st Quintile
(heaviest) Consumption
Heaviest and Lightest Users
120
Voter Turnout Index
Television 1st Quintile
110
(heaviest)
Radio 5th Quintile
(lightest) Radio 1st Quintile
100 (heaviest)
Internet 1st Quintile
(heaviest)
Internet 5th Quintile
(lightest)
TURNOUT
90
LOW
Newspaper 5th Quintile
Television 5th Quintile
(lightest)
(lightest)
80
-30 -20 -10 0 10 20
DEMOCRAT SKEW Republican Index Minus Democrat Index REPUBLICAN SKEW

15. GOP’s “GRP Gap”: Democrat Base voters are 24% more likely
to be watching broadcast TV Monday-Friday

16. MSNBC FOX Business Net
HIGH TURNOUT
140 Golf Ch
CNBC FOX News Ch
130 Hallmark Ch
ESPN2
FSN/FOX Sports Net
CNN NBC Sports Net
120 TWC ESPN HGTV
CNN Headline News AMC
History
TV Land Food Net
110
Voter Turnout
Planet Green A&E Speed
Oprah Winfrey Net Discovery
Cooking Ch
Index
100 Bravo TLC
Lifetime Animal Planet
FX CMT
Comedy Central Syfy
90
Spike
Oxygen TruTV ABC Family
80 E!
Disney Ch
TURNOUT
70 FOX Deportes Nick
LOW
VH1
ESPN Deportes Adult Swim
60
MTV U.S. Political Profile:
CNN en Español
50 Cable networks viewed past 7 days
-90 -70 -50 -30 -10 10 30 50 70 90
DEMOCRAT SKEW Republican Index Minus Democrat Index REPUBLICAN SKEW

17. 150 FNC: O'Reilly Factor
CNBC: Squawk Box
Comedy Central: Colbert Report CNBC: Closing Bell
HIGH TURNOUT
CNN: Erin Burnett OutFront FNC: Fox & Friends
140 CNN: Piers Morgan
CNBC: Suze Orman
Comedy Central: Daily Show HGTV: House Hunters
CNN: Anderson Cooper HLN: Morning Express
130 TNT: Rizzoli & Isles
CNN: Situation Room AMC: Mad Men ESPN2: Mike & Mike In Morning
Food: Diners, Drive-ins & Dives ESPN: PTI
120 CNN: John King History: American Pickers
Food: Restaurant Impossible
Voter Turnout Index
USA: Royal Pains
Food: Iron Chef Discovery: Deadliest Catch
110 Food: Chopped History: Pawn Stars
AMC: Breaking Bad Discovery: Sons of Guns
HLN: Nancy Grace History: Ax Men
100 A&E: Storage Wars
Lifetime: Project Runway Lifetime: Army Wives Animal Planet: River Monsters
AMC: The Walking Dead A&E: Billy the Exterminator
History: Top Gear
90 E!: Fashion Police TLC: Cake Boss FX: Sons of Anarchy
Spike TV: Bar Rescue
TLC: Extreme Couponing
Discovery: American Chopper
E! News TBS: Conan
LOW TURNOUT
80
Animal Planet: Animal Hoarding Comedy Central: Tosh. O
Nickelodeon: SpongeBob
Bravo: Pregnant in Heels E!: Kardashians Comedy Central: South Park
70
truTV: Operation Repo
Syfy: WWE SmackDown
U.S. Political Profile: Cable
60
-130 -110 -90 -70 -50 -30 -10 10 30
Program Audiences 110
50 70 90
DEMOCRAT SKEW Republican Index Minus Democrat Index REPUBLICAN SKEW

18. Harry's Law
HIGH TURNOUT
Blue Bloods
170
Castle
The Good Wife The Mentalist
60 Minutes Person of Interest
150 Suburgatory Mike & Molly
NCIS
The Middle Vegas
Rock Center
Smash Survivor
NCIS: LA Last Man Standing
Hawaii Five-O
Voter Turnout
130 20/20 Grimm Modern Family
Dancing w/ The Stars NBC NFL Sun Night Football
Index
Dateline Bachelorette
Big Bang Theory
Glee 2 Broke Girls
30 Rock Criminal Minds ABC Sat Night College Ftbl
Parenthood
110 Once Upon a Time Nashville
Law & Order: SVU The Voice American Idol
Two & a Half Men
New Girl The Office
AFHV
90
The X Factor
How I Met Your Mother Bachelor Pad
TURNOUT
The Vampire Diaries
LOW
ABC Sat Night Movie Cops
70 Gossip Girl
The Simpsons
Family Guy U.S. Political Profile: Broadcast
American Dad
50
Primetime Audiences
-70 -50 -30 -10
Average Program Audience
10 30 50
DEMOCRAT SKEW Republican Index Minus Democrat Index REPUBLICAN SKEW

19. 140 PGA TOUR (men's golf)
U.S. Political Profile: LPGA Tour (women's golf)
HIGH TURNOUT
College basketball
130
Sports Audiences High school sports
College baseball
Olympics College football
Horse racing
Figure skating IndyCar Series
120
Men's tennis (ATP) MLB
Women's tennis (WTA) NHL
110 Gymnastics NFL
Voter Turnout
WNBA Grand-Am Road Racing NASCAR
Formula One (F1) racing
Index
100 Pro rodeo
Pro Bull Riding (PBR)
NBA NHRA Drag Racing
90
Pro boxing Major League Soccer (MLS)
80
TURNOUT
European soccer UFC (Ultimate Fighting)
LOW
Extreme/action sports AMA Pro Racing
70 MotoGP (Grand Prix (motorcycle/ATV)
motorcycle)
WWE (pro wrestling) Monster Trucks Supercross/Motocross
60
-100 -80 -60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60
DEMOCRAT SKEW Republican Index Minus Democrat Index REPUBLICAN SKEW

20. HIGH TURNOUT
Travel reservations National news
120
Financial info/services
Local/community events
Podcasts Consumer reviews
Sports scores/updates
Local news Auction site
110
Blogs (read/contribute) Maps/GPS
Traffic
Cable TV network site
Voter Turnout Index
Restaurant info Banking
Search
100 Listen to a local radio station Automobile info
Daily deals (LivingSocial, etc.) Watch video clips Fantasy sports
IM Social networking Sports scores/updates
E-mail
90 News/weather/traffic
Watch TV programs
Maps/GPS
Listen to Internet radio Search
Download apps
Video games
LOW TURNOUT
Shopping
Music
Job/employment search
80 Banking Games (play/download)
Watch video clips
Personal ads/dating Music Social networking U.S. Political Profile: Ways
70
Take college courses Internet/Mobile used past 30 days
Blue bubbles = Internet use; Green bubbles = Mobile use
-30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 40
DEMOCRAT SKEW Republican Index Minus Democrat Index REPUBLICAN SKEW

21. Two things consumer campaigns can do that political campaigns cannot:
1. Plan and implement over a multi-quarter time horizon.
2. Continually monitor ROI based on sales data.
DATA ANALYTICS & VOTER RESEARCH COMPETITIVE TRACKING
VOTER TARGETING
Define & Redefine
INTERNAL TRACKING
MESSAGING & COMMUNICATIONS
CREATIVE TESTING
CREATIVE STRATEGY & BUDGET
STRATEGY
MEDIA
RESEARCH
FUNDRAISING
DONOR DEVELOPMENT
COMMUNICATIONS CHANNELS
News Paid Internet + Direct voter
media advertising social media contact

23. Gaining Separation
Market
Time
Show or show genre
Message
© 2010 Kantar Media

25. Presidential TV Advertising By Type
Select Markets

26. DEM GOP
Cleveland $24,900,000 $25,600,000
Denver $21,800,000 $19,300,000
Las Vegas $13,200,000 $16,100,000
Orlando $22,200,000 $17,800,000
Richmond $7,900,000 $9,100,000

27. Obama bought more spots on expensive prime and
sports, but still paid less per spot than Romney.
Local Broadcast TV
As % of As % of Average
Local Spots Estimated Local Spot
Total Total Cost per
Aired Spending
Aired Spending Spot
Barack Obama 553,782 46.0% $ 261,767,528 36.8% $ 473
Mitt Romney 250,876 20.9% $ 180,875,414 25.4% $ 721
Obama + Ally 618,681 51% $ 297,403,284 42% $ 481
Romney + Allies 584,466 49% $ 413,711,009 58% $ 708
1,203,147 100% $711,114,293 100% $ 591
Competitive spending estimates from Polaris/NMRPP

31. Anti-Romney vs. Pro-Romney TV Ads

32. Impact of Political on Other
Advertising
Category Share of Market Ad Time
Politics Politics Auto Telecom Restaurants All Other Paid Promos Total
Share
< 2% 0.5% 13.7% 9.5% 4.3% 54.4% 17.7% 100.0%
2-5% 3.2% 13.8% 8.1% 4.4% 53.2% 17.3% 100.0%
5-10% 7.1% 13.4% 7.9% 3.7% 50.2% 17.8% 100.0%
10-20% 13.7% 10.1% 7.7% 3.5% 47.0% 18.0% 100.0%
20-30% 24.0% 9.7% 6.5% 2.7% 39.1% 18.0% 100.0%
>30% 38.3% 6.0% 5.0% 2.6% 30.7% 17.4% 100.0%
How To Read: In weeks when political share of ad time is less than 2%, auto
share of ad time average 13.7 %
32

33. Impact of Political on Other
Advertising
Category Share Ratio Of Market Ad Time
Politics % Auto Telecom Restaurants All Other Paid Promos
Share
< 2% 13.7% 9.5% 4.3% 54.4% 17.7%
Ratio 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
2-5%
5-10%
10-20%
20-30%
>30%
33

34. Impact of Political on Other
Advertising
Category Share Ratio of Market Ad Time
Politics % Auto Telecom Restaurants All Other Paid Promos
Share
<2% 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
2-5% 1.01 0.85 1.03 0.98 0.98
5-10% 0.98 0.82 0.87 0.92 1.01
10-20% 0.74 0.81 0.83 0.86 1.02
20-30% 0.71 0.69 0.64 0.72 1.02
>30% 0.44 0.53 0.60 0.56 0.98
34