An overview of what climate change is, it passible causes and effects.

1. Africa Carbon Exchange (ACX) workshop,
KEFRI, 12-16 November 2012
Impacts of climate change
and what this means today
and in the future

2. 21st Century climate
challenge
• Four distinctive characteristics:
– It is cumulative
– The effects are irreversible
– Large time lags – today’s emissions are
tomorrow’s problems
– It is global
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3. Climate change is today a
global financial challenge
• Since 2009, governments broadly agree that it will be costly to
solve climate change
• By 2020, US$100bn needed annually for investments in climate
mitigation and adaptation (“Copenhagen Accord”)
• Governments in developed countries to play a catalytic role,
but private sector in developed countries to contribute a
significant portion of the US$100bn
• Markets, including carbon markets, are key instruments for
mobilization of private capital for climate-friendly investments
• Strong need for innovative finance at scale to meet the
climate challenge
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8. Framing climate change
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9. • What are the potential IMPACTS
of the Climate Changes
• Are we ready for the Challenges
posed by the IMPACTS

10. 1.Global Warming is unequivocal
and primarily human induced
- Global temperature has increased
over the past 50 years.
- This observed increase is due
primarily to human-induced emissions
of heat-trapping gases.

11. 2. Climate Changes are underway in Africa
and are projected to grow
These include:
- Increases in heavy downpours
- Rising temperature
- Rising sea level
- Rapidly retreating glaciers
- Thawing permafrost
- Lengthening growing seasons
- Lengthening ice-free seasons etc

12. 3. Widespread climate-related impacts are occurring now and
are expected to increase
- Climate changes are already affecting water, energy,
transportation, agriculture, ecosystems, and health.
4. Climate Change will stress water resources
- Drought is important in many regions,
- Floods and water quality problems - likely to be amplified by climate
change in most regions.

13. 5. Crop and livestock production will be increasingly
challenged
- Many crops show positive responses to elevated carbon dioxide
and low levels of warming. But higher levels of warming often
negatively affect growth and yields.
- Increased pests, water stress, diseases, and weather extremes will
pose adaptation challenges for crop and livestock production.
6. Coastal areas are at increasing risk from sea level rise and
storm surge
• Increasing risk of erosion and flooding
• Energy and transportation infrastructure - very likely to be
adversely affected.

14. 7. Risks to human health will increase
• Related to increasing heat stress, waterborne diseases, poor air
quality, extreme weather events, and diseases transmitted by
insects and rodents.
• Robust public health infrastructure can reduce the potential for
negative impacts.
8. Climate change will interact with many social and
environmental stresses
• Climate change will combine with pollution, population growth,
overuse of resources, urbanization, and other social, economic,
and environmental stresses

15. 9. Thresholds will be crossed leading to large changes in
climate and ecosystems
These thresholds determine, for example:
- the presence of sea ice and permafrost,
- the survival of species, from fish to insect pests
10. Future climate and its impacts depends on
choices made today
• The amount and rate of future climate change depend
primarily on current and future human-caused emissions
• Responses involve reducing emissions to limit future warming,
and adapting to the changes that are unavoidable.

16. 16
Impacts of Climate Change

17. 17
Impacts of Climate Change
cont…

18. • By 2080, arid and semi-arid land in Africa could
increase by 5-8% (60-90 million hectares).
• Crop net revenues will likely fall by as much as 90%
by 2100, with small-scale farms being the most
affected.
• It is estimated that by 2100, parts of the sub-Sahara
Africa will likely experience agricultural losses of
between 2 and 7% of the GDP
• Productivity of rivers will increase in the short term
but will decrease in the long term
• Rangeland productivity will decrease and hence
livestock will be affected.

19. • The population at risk of increased water stress
in Africa is projected to be between 75-250
million people by 2020 and 350-600 million
people by the 2050.
• A 2°C temperature increase could lead to 0.4 –
1.8 billion more people at risk of water stress.
• Reduced rainfall will lead to reduction in
Groundwater availability particularly in the
UPPER AQUIFER from which most of the water
supply for Africa is withdrawn
• Reduced rainfall will lead to reduced freshwater
availability

20. • Projected sea level rise would increase
flooding, particularly on the coasts of
eastern Africa;
• Sea level rise will likely increase the high
socioeconomic and physical vulnerability
of coastal cities.
• The cost of adaptation to sea level rise
could amount to at least 5-10% of GDP.

21. • A 5-7% potential increase (mainly
altitudinal) in malaria distribution is
projected, with little increase in the
latitudinal extent of the disease by
2100.
• It is estimated that by the 2080s an
additional 80 million people will likely
be at risk of malaria.

22. WE MUST FACE THE CHALLENGE
In two ways
1. Mitigation of Greenhouse Gas
Emissions and Concentrations into
the Atmosphere
2. Adaptation to the Impacts of
Climate Change

23. On mitigation, there is need for the
developed countries to demonstrate
leadership by cutting greenhouse gas
emissions by at least 80% of 1990 levels by
2050 and Developing countries cut
emissions by 20% of 1990 levels by 2050.
This can be achived by a mix of carbon
taxation, more stringent cap-and-trade
programmes, energy regulation, and
international cooperation on financing for
low-carbon technology transfer.

24. • Rural electrification using solar generators
and other alternatives;
• Greenhouse Gas Abatement using
Improved Cooking Stoves to reduce fuel
wood consumption
• Reducing CO2 emissions from organic
waste combustion through composting
• Fuel Switching through Replacement of
fuel wood
• Carbon sequestration through forest
management

25. • Integrating climate policies in broader development
policies
• Regulations and standards
• Taxes and charges
• Tradable permits
• Financial incentives
• Voluntary agreements
• Information instruments
• Research and development
Policies are available to governments to realise
mitigation of climate change

27. • Africa has developed several copings strategies to
adapt to current climate variability but these will be
inadequate to adapt to climate change;
• A range of factors including wealth, technology,
education, information, skills, infrastructure, access
to resources, and various psychological factors
and management capabilities determine the
adaptive capacity of a nation or continent.
• Africa is very poor in most of these factors;
HENCE, ADAPTIVE CAPACITY OF AFRICA IS
VERY LOW

28. Rehabilitation of natural coastal buffers
such as mangroves and coral reefs and
provision of alternate livelihood options to
relieve the root causes of destruction of
coastal buffers.
Improve risk and disaster management
capacity
Increase institutional capacity to
implement integrated coastal zone
management, including climate change
effects on productive coastal systems, in
particular in the water, fisheries and
coastal agriculture sectors.
Suggested Adaptation Activities in Africa

29. Implementation of measures at community
level
– Water harvesting techniques
– Introduction of drought resistant varieties of
local crops
– Facilitation of food banks
– Promotion of irrigation
Implementation of demonstration projects to
improve capacity and awareness for
sustainable water management including:
– Run-off dikes to capture rainfall
– Promotion of water efficient technologies
– Introduction and dissemination of „drip
irrigation‟ techniques
Suggested Adaptation Activities in Africa

30. 15 September IEF climate conference 30
Future Climate Regime needs
Global Solidarity to Work
• TARGET/DATE: max. +2°C = -70% GHG globally by 2050
• FAIR /EFFECTIVE: Need global participation through
national targets, consistent with the global limit
• MARKET/FISCAL: Need new financial mechanisms to
steer $17 Trillion of energy investments into low carbon
solutions
• MAINSTREAMING: Climate risks must be factored into
policy and investment decisions - active risk mitigation
IF YOU ARE NOT PART OF THE SOLUTION YOU ARE PART
OF THE PROBLEM!
• Need both MITIGATION and ADAPTATION on
unprecedented level – real urgency! We have 10-15
years, at best, to create a working regime, to break the
current trend

31. The development challenge
• It is widely recognized and accepted that in Africa, climate
change will hamper the ability of Africa to adequately
address:
– rapid onset-disaster events
– Widening energy access
– water availability
– food security
– public health
– migration
• Adaptation to climate change is a matter of survival for most
Africans

32. Recently Africa‟s growth
has been widespread…
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33. 560 million sub-Saharan Africans lack access to electricity
..and it needs energy to keep growing..

34. But
• The quality of growth matters
• Moving towards low carbon and resilient
pathway is paramount
– For increasing demand for services and meeting
unmet demand
– Avoid lock-into carbon intensive options
• In some ways, Africa in an advantageous
position
– starting from a low base and has the resources

35. Any difficult journey requires innovation

38. What is the CIC?
• World Bank-infoDev initiative, funded by UK Aid and DANIDA
• Will provide incubation, capacity building services and
financing to Kenyan SMEs developing climate mitigation
and adaptation solutions
• First in a series of CICs that infoDev is launching globally
• GVEP International, PwC, Strathmore University and KIRDI are
the lead partners in a consortium contracted by infoDev to
establish and operate the CIC
• Supporting consortium partners are UNIDO, Adelphi, KIPPRA,
LTS International, Netwas, Technoserve and Oxford Energy
Associates
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39. Why CIC? Why now?
Several challenges underscore the need to stimulate climate innovation
and the growth of clean tech industries in Kenya:
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Only 14-16% of Kenyan households are connected to the grid, a
significant contributor to the energy divide in the country
Traditional biomass-based fuels for cooking and heating are
currently the most important source of primary energy in Kenya with
wood fuel accounting for 68% of total consumption
Access to safe water is estimated at 60% in urban areas and 40% in
rural areas, while sewerage systems cover only 14% of the population
Agriculture is the key economic activity in Kenya, contributing 80% of
formal employment and 26% of GDP, yet is highly constrained by low
and erratic rainfall

40. Mission
CIC Mission
To provide an integrated set of services, activities
and programmes that empowers Kenyan
entrepreneurs to deliver innovative climate
technology solutions
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41. CIC core goals
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Fill market gaps by:
• Providing access to flexible investment mechanisms that support
enterprises at varying levels of innovation and scale
• Building innovation capacity through the delivery of advice,
assistance and educational products
• Enabling collaboration and developing policies that support an
innovation ecosystem in East Africa
• Identifying and unlocking new opportunities through access to
information and market intelligence
• Facilitating access to facilities that support rapid technology
design, adaptation, proto-typing, testing and manufacture

42. CIC activities
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• Provide mentoring and specialised training programmes
• Access to toolkits, templates and pre-packaged support
Advisory
services
Financing
Access to
facilities
Enabling
ecosystem
Access to
information
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• Provide Proof of Concept grants
• Facilitate access to other sources of financing
• Provide access to facilities that house incubatees and
support technology design, adaptation, prototyping, etc
• Work with GoK to develop Kenyan clean tech policies
• Coordinate technology transfer and collaborative R&D
• Gather, package and disseminate information on
technologies, financing and local markets

43. Expected outcomes
Combined suite of financing and services make the CIC the “go to”
institution for emerging climate solutions in Kenya
CIC expected to deliver a mix of social economic and
environmental benefits including:
• Jobs created
• Companies launched
• Reduction of CO2 emissions
• Greater climate resiliency
• Access to clean energy and water
• Strengthened technology transfer and local innovation
capacity
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44. Supporting key GoK policy
initiatives
• The CIC was developed in close consultation with GoK
ministries and officials, primarily the Climate Change
Coordination Unit in the Prime Minister‟s Office and the Ministry
of Environment
• The CIC will help Kenya achieve numerous economic and
policy objectives including:
– Kenya Vision 2030 (to become a middle-income country)
– Greening Kenya (to directly support low carbon growth
through green initiatives)
– The National Climate Change Response Strategy (which
specifically advocates innovation centers)
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45. Who can participate?
The CIC is seeking a range of partners:
• Entrepreneurs and SMEs: the CIC seeks to support SMEs and
entrepreneurs developing innovative energy, water and agriculture
solutions
• Financial institutions: the CIC seeks to partner with investors, banks
and financial community to improve access to financing and
increase the supply of capital.
• Governments: the CIC aims to work with policymakers to support the
adoption of clean technology in Kenya.
• Private sector: the CIC aims to facilitate collaboration between its
clients and local and international businesses as suppliers, distributors,
partners, licensees or licensors, investors or acquirers.
• Academia: the CIC seeks forge linkages between innovators and
academia to generate valuable knowledge and technologies
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