1. Climate Adaptation Pathways and Options in
Agriculture
www.akademiya2063.org
Getaw Tadesse (PhD)
Director, Department of Operational Support, AKADEMIYA2063
Presentation for the Board Seminar, September 26, 2023.
Kigali, Rwanda

2. Introduction
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• While climate change is global, its
impact is very localized and differs
across countries and sectors
• We conducted adaptation related
studies in 7 African countries
Preliminary

3.  Risk and vulnerability assessment
 Economic impacts of climate change / loss and damage
 Adaption pathways and best practices
 Investment options for climate adaptation
• Effectiveness of adaptation actions
 Integrated M& E systems for tracking adaptation actions
Analytical issues in climate adaptation
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4. • Vulnerability = (Exposure + Sensitivity +Adaptive incapacity)/3
• Impact/Risk = (Exposure +Sensitivity )/2
• Two types of vulnerability
• Spatial vulnerability : extent of vulnerability at sub-national or community
level, assuming vulnerability is covariate
• For targeting community level interventions
• Household vulnerability : the number of households vulnerable in the
community ( assuming vulnerability is idiosyncratic )..
• For targeting household interventions
• Resilience = 1-vub
Risk , vulnerability and resilience assessment
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5. Spatial Risk and Vulnerability in
Nigeria and Senegal
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6. Household Vulnerability in Senegal
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0.57
0.49
0.37
0.48
0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6
ADAPTIVE INCAPACITY
SENSITIVITY
EXPOSURE
CLIMATE VULNERABILITY INDEX
Senegal
By component

7. Household vulnerability in Rwanda
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Household climate change vulnerability by district for
Rwanda in 2021
0.61
0.29
0.38
0.43
0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7
ADAPTIVE INCAPACITY
SENSITIVITY
EXPOSURE
CLIMATE VULNERABILITY INDEX
Rwanda
By component

8. Economic impacts of climate change
Results of ex-ante CGE simulations
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Impact on Agriculture and GDP
Economic indicators
Impacts of Climate change in %
Kenya Mali Nigeria Senegal
Annual changes in agricultural productivity -9.7 -13.3 -9.7 -11.7
Annual changes in agricultural value added -10.7 -15.0 -9.6 -10.6
GDP change compared to BaU -8.3 -8.9 -4.2 -4.2

9. Economic impacts of climate change
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Mali
Impact on value-added in non-ag sectors
Kenya

10. Economic impacts of climate change
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Impact on value-added in non-ag sectors
-8.6
-6.0
-4.7
-3.8
-3.8
-3.2
-3.1
-3.1
-3.1
-2.5
-2.5
-2.3
-2.2
-2.1
-2.1
-2.0
-2.0
-1.7
-1.7
-0.9
-0.9
-0.7
-0.7
-0.2
0.6
2.6
Wood and paper products
Accommodationand food services
Public administration
Machinery, equipment andvehicles
Construction
Processed foods
Finance and insurance
Non-metal minerals
Beverage and tobacco
Industry sector
Chemicals and petroleum
Health and social work
Electricity, gas and steam
Mining
Education
Transportation andstorage
Metals and metal products
Business services
Water supply and sewage
Services sector
Information and communication
Other services
Real estate activities
Textiles, clothing andfootwear
Wholesale and retail trade
Other manufacturing
Nigeria

11. Economic impacts of climate change
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-5.4
-4.6 -4.6
LOW SKILLED MEDIUM
SKILLED
HIGH SKILLED
-6.8
-5.3
-6.3
LOW SKILLED MEDIUM
SKILLED
HIGH SKILLED
Effect on employment
-1.1
-2.5
-1.9
LOW SKILLED
LABOR
MEDIUM
SKILLED LABOR
HIGH SKILLED
LABOR
Mali
Kenya
Nigeria

12. Economic impacts of climate change
Results of ex-ante CGE simulations
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Impact on inequality and poverty
Economic indicators
Impacts of Climate change in %
Kenya Mali Nigeria Senegal
Gini index. compared to BaU 0.2 -0.5 0.3
National poverty compared to BaU 3.3 0.9 2.1 2.8
Extreme poverty compared to BaU 6.6 1.3 0.9 3.9

13. Adaptation to climate change
• Environmental costs: biodiversity,
• Social costs: health, conflict, migration
• Economic costs: productivity loss, reduction in
income /value-addition, employment loss,
asset loss
Adaptation
• Building resilience at household,
community and national levels
OR
• Minimizing of costs of climate Change

14. Adaptation pathways in AfoLU
Based on Review NAPs
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Six Pathways based on adaptation mechanisms and benefits
1. Ex-ante measures: preparedness
• Early warning system; food reserve; saving
2. Intensification :
• Improved crop varieties; inorganic fertilizer; irrigation,
3. Intensification + sequestration :
• Organic fertilizer, SWC, conservation agriculture; afforestation
4. Intensification + methane reduction:
• Expanding small livestock; improved rice cultivation
5. Income diversification:
• Agro-industrialization, livelihoods diversification, cash transfer
6. Risk transfer :
• Crop insurance; livestock insurance

15. Investment options for adaptation in AfoLU
Based on economywide simulations
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Share of cultivated area to be covered by adaptation options to compensate the
productivity loss
Mali (compared to 2018 level) Kenya (compared to 2019 level

16. Good practices for advancing adaptation
options
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• Decentralization of climate actions in Kenya
• Risk-based adaptation actions in Ethiopia
• A Unified Social Register system for social protection response in
Mali
• Agroecology prioritization in Nigeria with a focus in Savanna zones
• An integrated and digitalized environmental M&E system in
Rwanda –RBME/ ENR-MIS

17. Thank
You