Director, Operational Support
AKADEMIYA2063
Impact Evaluation
Dr. Nicola Francesconi

The Impact of SeedAid
on Maize Yields in South Sudan
amid COVID, Conflicts and Climate Change
Esther Smits, Rob Kuijpers, Justin Amos Miteng,
David Deng Chol Aruai, Turo Thomas Mono
and Nicola Francesconi (n.francesconi@kit.nl)
AKADEMIYA2063 - KIT
MoU
To reactivate and institutionalize the
AGRODEP Impact Evaluation Network/Training
First training course at the end of August 2023

The A3SEED project in South Sudan
• 10 million euro, 5 years (2021-2025)
• Funded by NL-embassy, implemented by IFDC + KIT
• Technical + financial support to 10 South Sudanese seed
companies (+ growers/dealers)
• To develop a private seed sector in South Sudan, as a
way to address:
high agricultural potential but low agricultural
productivity and high food security
within a 12 year old country afflicted by COVID,
Conflicts, Climate Change
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The issue of SeedAid in South Sudan
• FAO + GOV + NGOs have put in place a large and longstanding SeedAid distribution system
• To build agricultural resilience and increase food security, whilst reducing dependency on FoodAid
• SeedAid is however undermining the rise of a national private seed sector
• Because SeedAid is mostly (85-90%) procured from abroad (Uganda, Kenya, etc.)
• The success of A3SEED depends on its ability to co-exist with SeedAid
• What is the impact of SeedAid on the farm-households targeted by the A3SEED project?
• Who is benefiting from SeedAid and who is not?
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Data
• 2021 primary, baseline survey-data on
2,000 farm-households from the green-
belt of South Sudan (sampled among
the 100,000 targeted by A3SEED)
• 5 counties: Juba, Magwi, Torit, Yambio
and Nzara
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3%
10%
87%
Markets (formal and informal) Seed aid Recycling
1,250 farm-households produced maize in 2021
using locally recycled seeds, some SeedAid, but almost no commercial seeds.
% of total volume of seeds used by farm-hhs within the green belt, by seed source

What is the impact of SeedAid?
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IPWRA: Inverse-probability-weighted regression adjustment technique (Wooldridge 2010; Manda et al., 2019).
A doubly-robust method for the estimation of a treatment effect on the treated
combining PSM with an OLS regression model.
Outcome Indicators No SeedAid Yes SeedAid Difference Significance
Maize productivity (Kg/ha) 1088 1191 103 Not significant
Observations 909 (73%) 331 (27%) 1240 /

Who benefits from SeedAID?
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Access to SeedAid
(Probit)
Maize Yield without SeedAid
(OLS)
Maize Yield with SeedAid
(OLS)
Total farmland held (ha) = _ _ =
IDP ++ _ _ =
HH head is a village leader ++ = +
Female HH head = = =
Age of HH head = = +
HH size = = =
Dependency ratio (children) ++ = =
Dependency ratio (elders) = = =
HH head illiterate = = =
Observations 1,240 909 (73%) 331 (27%)
+ positive & significant effect at the 10% level
++ positive & significant effect at the 5% level
+++ positive & significant effect at the 1% level
- negative & significant effect at the 10% level
- negative & significant effect at the 5% level
--- negative & significant effect at the 1% level

Discussion
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• SeedAid’s average impact on maize yields is insignificant
• Since most farm-households have access to locally recycled seeds
• We conclude that there is no difference in the yield-enhancing quality of SeedAid and locally recycled seeds
However:
• SeedAid significantly prevents productivity-losses among IDP and larger landholders
• Who are more the most likely to face seed shortages
• SeedAid can only serve to prevent yield-losses for farm-households confronted with seed shortages
• SeedAid distribution also tends to promote elite capture
• Not a problem as long as SeedAid reduces also productivity losses among the most vulnerable (IDP)

Conclusions & Implications
The A3SEED project is recommended to help South Sudanese Seed companies to market their seeds to:
• SeedAid agencies (FAO), which should stop pretending to have superior seed quality standards and contribute
also to the growth of local seed markets (digital vouchers?).
• Larger landholders, who clearly need more seeds but do not have preferential access to SeedAid and may be
more likely to pay for seeds (Seed Fairs).
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