The Real Estate Report August/September. Local Market Trends San Francisco...

1. AUGUST/SEPTEMBER 2012 Robb Fleischer
American Marketing Systems, Inc.
Inside This Issue
2800 Van Ness Avenue
> LOCAL MARKET TRENDS ..................... 1 San Francisco, CA 94109
> MORTGAGE RATE OUTLOOK ............... 2 (415) 447-2009
rfleischer@amsiemail.com
> HOME STATISTICS .............................. 2
http://www.amsires.com/staff/robb
> FORECLOSURE STATS ........................ 3 DRE #01403882
> CONDO STATISTICS ............................ 3
> MOMENTUM CHARTS .......................... 4
The Real Estate Report
local market trends Trends at a Glance
(Single-family Homes)
Jul 12 Jun 12 Jul 11
SAN FRANCISCO Home Sales: 204 248 191
Median Price: $ 800,750 $ 800,000 $ 750,000
As the Market Turns Av erage Price: 1,214,707 1,174,385 1,047,571
Sale/List Price Ratio: 100.2% 103.8% 98.8%
It's an interesting phenomenon in the real estate market by turning underwater homeowners into
Day s on Market: 47 57 59
market that when the market turns, it takes awhile potential sellers.
for people to catch up. In San Francisco, the (Lofts/Tow nhomes/TIC)
More inventory will alleviate the pricing pressure Jul 12 Jun 12 Jul 11
market has definitely turned in favor of sellers.
we are under now. Condo Sales: 264 312 220
In the current change from a buyers’ market to a
sellers’ market, we are seeing a great deal of JULY MARKET STATISTICS Median Price: $ 692,500 $ 730,000 $ 627,150
Sales of single-family, re-sale homes were up 6.8% Av erage Price: 781,287 838,697 693,719
angst, particularly among buyers.
year-over-year. Sale/List Price Ratio: 101.1% 101.2% 98.5%
They feel like the market is getting away from Day s on Market: 59 56 77
them: rising prices and inventory, while increasing, Sales are being impacted by the lack of inventory.
is still on the low side. This pushed up the sales As of today, there are only 234 homes for sale in PRICING MOMENTUM…
price to list price ratio in San Francisco to over the city. That's down from 379 in June! That’s just continued moving upward in July, gaining 0.9 of a
100% since March. It backed off a little in July: over one month of supply. There are 337 point to –2 for homes. The number for condos rose
99.4%. condos/lofts for sale, about one and half months 1.1 points to finish in the black for only the third
supply. time since December 2008: +1.2.
These conditions will resolve themselves, in time.
But, it is going to take time for the market to settleThe beneficiary of low inventory has been prices.
The median price for homes rose 6.8% year-over-
WE CALCULATE…
down. momentum by using a 12-month moving average
year. The median price has been higher than the
In the meantime, a bright note is the surge in prices year before for six out of the last seven months. to eliminate seasonality. By comparing this year’s
since the beginning of the year. We calculate the 12-month moving average to last year’s, we get a
median price for single-family homes is up 25% SALES MOMENTUM… percentage showing market momentum.
since January. for homes rose 0.8 of a point to +11.2. For condos,
sales momentum rose one point to +10.5.
CONDO STATISTICS…
Rising prices, while not something buyers want to The median price for condos gained 10.4% year-
see, will go a long way towards stabilizing the over-year. Sales were up 22% from last July.
This is an extraordinarily tough market
for buyers. It’s important to be calm
San Francisco Homes: Year-Over-Year Median Sales Price Change
and realistic. If you don’t know what to
30.0% do or where to begin, give me a call
and let’s discuss your situation and
20.0%
your options.
10.0%
0.0%
0 FMAMJ JA SOND0 FMAMJ JA SOND0 FMAMJ JA SOND1 FMAMJ JA SOND1 FMAMJ JA SOND1 FMAMJ J
-10.0% 7 8 9 0 1 2
-20.0%
-30.0%
-40.0%
© 2012 rereport.com
Robb Fleischer | rfleischer@amsiemail.com | (415) 447-2009

2. The Real Estate Report
Mortgage Rate Outlook
30-Year Fixed Mortgage Rates Aug 3, 2012 -- HSH.com's broad-market mortgage track- Overall, the economy is tepid at best, but the latest
er -- our weekly Fixed-Rate Mortgage Indicator data suggest that there is no continuing free fall after
07-12 (FRMI) -- found that the overall average rate for 30- a Euro-led downturn in the second quarter. Things
04-12 year fixed-rate mortgages rose by a lone basis point are tentative and shaky, no doubt, but things could
01-12
10-11 (.01%) to 3.86%. The FRMI's 15-year companion be worse. The Federal Reserve is right in holding off
07-11 also rose by a single basis point, landing at 3.16%, from taking new measures unless things do become
04-11 two ticks above a record low. Important to homebuy- more dire, since the boost from previous policy action
01-11
10-10
ers and low-equity-stake refinancers, already-low has been limited at best, and there is no indication
07-10 FHA-backed 30-year mortgages rose by two basis that even lower interest rates will be the right tonic for
04-10 points to 3.42%, the series' first bump in six weeks, what ails us. Should the economy worsen, the Fed
01-10 while the overall average rate for 5/1 Hybrid ARMs will of course take steps to try to get it going again,
10-09
07-09 finished the weekly survey at 2.80%, holding at a but their options are limited. It should be noted that a
04-09 record low for the most popular kind of ARM. 1.5% growth rate isn't much, but it's not a recession
01-09 or even an emergency, either, and compares favora-
10-08 Spending on new construction projects rose by 0.4%
bly with many other economies.
07-08 in June, a decline from May's 1.6% rise but still a
04-08 positive. Spending for public projects was un- With the news of the defense of the Euro and the
01-08
10-07 changed, as cash-strapped governments have no mild improvement in the US economy, the frazzled
07-07 funds to power projects. Commercial construction nerves of investors have been soothed somewhat.
04-07 projects rose a scant 0.1% for the month, so all the As a result, at least some money has been pulled out
01-07 gains actually came from outlays for residential pro- of safe-haven investments like US Treasuries, and
10-06
07-06 jects, which gained 1.3% for the month. That was a yields have risen a little bit. There's no reason to
04-06 smaller increase than the 3.1% seen in May, but the expect that rates will continue to climb at this point as
01-06 last three months have been fairly strong for home- there's little to support any sustained move upward.
3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0% 7.0% 8.0% building relative to what was seen over the last cou- With a lighter calendar of economic news out next
ple of years. week, we could see a slight uptick again as we
bounce around the bottom.
San Francisco Homes: Sold Prices & Unit Sales
The chart above shows the Na- (3-month moving average — $000's)
tional monthly average for 30-
year fixed rate mortgages as $1,500 300
compiled by HSH.com. The av- $1,300 250
erage includes mortgages of all
sizes, including conforming, $1,100 200
"expanded conforming," and $900 150
jumbo.
$700 100
$500 50
$300 0
0 FMAMJ JA SOND0 FMAMJ JA SOND0 FMAMJ JA SOND1 FMAMJ JA SOND1 FMAMJ JA SOND1 FMAMJ J
7 8 9 0 1 2
Ave Med Units © 2012 rereport.com
July Sales Statistics
(Single-family Homes)
Prices Unit Change from last year Change from last m onth
Median Average Sales DOM SP/LP Median Average Sales Median Average Sales
San Francisco $ 800,750 $1,214,707 204 47 100.2% 6.8% 16.0% 6.8% 0.1% 3.4% -17.7%
D1: Northw est $1,242,050 $1,522,283 18 40 103.1% 3.6% 16.7% 20.0% 59.2% -1.4% -21.7%
D2: Central West $ 717,500 $ 769,914 28 30 106.3% 0.1% -3.4% 7.7% -4.0% 1.6% -17.6%
D3: Southw est $ 506,000 $ 551,318 17 65 105.0% 0.7% -5.5% -15.0% -15.3% -20.0% -29.2%
D4: Tw in Peaks $ 875,000 $ 965,571 21 30 105.3% 0.8% -14.7% -12.5% 2.3% -8.5% -48.8%
D5: Central $1,575,000 $1,727,124 37 40 103.0% 23.5% 28.6% 32.1% 24.5% 31.0% 5.7%
D6: Central North $1,325,000 $1,904,611 3 38 112.2% 90.6% 174.0% 200.0% -7.0% 29.6% -40.0%
D7: North $3,875,000 $6,651,031 8 98 86.6% 56.6% 97.6% -11.1% 47.7% 89.2% -57.9%
D8: Northeast $1,725,000 $1,725,000 2 45 101.5% -20.3% -44.1% -60.0% -65.1% -53.2% -33.3%
D9: Central East $ 890,000 $ 944,870 23 49 108.6% 8.5% 10.4% 15.0% 6.6% 4.4% 9.5%
Page 2 D10: Southeast $ 505,000 $ 450,735 47 55 105.2% 6.3% -2.2% 9.3% 6.9% -1.6% 17.5%

3. San Francisco Condos/Lofts: Year-Over-Year Median Sales Price Change
30.0%
20.0%
10.0%
0.0%
0 FMAMJ JA SOND0 FMAMJ JA SOND0 FMAMJ JA SOND1 FMAMJ JA SOND1 FMAMJ JA SOND1 FMAMJ J
-10.0% 7 8 9 0 1 2
-20.0%
-30.0%
© 2011 rereport.com
FORECLOSURE STATISTICS
In San Francisco, notices of default, the first step in the investor, bids more than the bank's opening bid, the
foreclosure process, dropped in June from the year property will be sold to the third party; if not, it will go
before by 44.6%. They were down 12.6% from May. back to the bank and become part of that bank's REO
inventory.
Notices of sale, which set the date and time of an auc-
tion, and serve as the homeowner's final notice before In May, cancellations were off 21.7% from May. Year-
sale, were down 41.3% from May, and down 57.2% over-year, cancellations were down 27.6%.
year-over-year.
Properties going back-to-bank fell 9.1% from May, and
After the filing of a Notice of Trustee Sale, there are were down 60% year-over-year.
only three possible outcomes. First, the sale can be
The total number of homes that have had a notice of
cancelled for reasons that include a successful loan
default filed decreased by 26.9% compared to last year.
modification or short sale, a filing error, or a legal re-
quirement to re-file the notice after extended postpone- The total number of homes scheduled for sale de-
ments. creased by 21.4% year-over-year.
Alternatively, if the property is taken to sale, the bank
(Continued on page 4)
will place the opening bid. If a third party, typically an
San Francisco Condos: Sold Prices & Unit Sales
(3-month moving average — $000's)
$1,000 350
Table Definitions
$900 300 _______________
$800 250
$700 200 Median Price
The price at which 50% of pric-
$600 150
es were higher and 50%were
$500 100 lower.
$400 50
$300 0 Average Price
0 FMAMJ JA SOND0 FMAMJ JA SOND0 FMAMJ JA SOND1 FMAMJ JA SOND1 FMAMJ JA SOND1 FMAMJ J Add all prices and divide by the
7 8 9 0 1 2 number of sales.
Ave Med Units © 2012 rereport.com
SP/LP
July Sales Statistics Sales price to list price ratio or
the price paid for the property
(Condos/TICs/Co-ops/Lofts) divided by the asking price.
Prices Unit Change from last year Change from last m onth
Median Average Sales DOM SP/LP Median Average Sales Median Average Sales DOI
San Francisco $ 692,500 $ 781,287 264 59 101.1% 10.4% 12.6% 20.0% -5.1% -6.8% -15.4% Days of Inventory, or how many
D1: Northw est $ 799,500 $ 813,071 14 45 104.0% 25.7% 15.9% 16.7% 0.9% 3.2% -33.3% days it would take to sell all the
property for sale at the current
D2: Central West $ 751,500 $ 739,500 6 60 100.8% -15.4% -16.8% 200.0% 1.6% 1.4% -14.3% rate of sales.
D3: Southw est $ - $ - 0 0 0.0% n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a
D4: Tw in Peaks $ 459,000 $ 530,200 5 82 100.6% 31.1% 36.2% 66.7% -8.1% 3.3% -16.7% Pend
D5: Central $ 875,000 $ 856,833 33 46 102.6% 22.9% 10.8% -5.7% 19.0% 8.7% -32.7% Property under contract to sell
that hasn’t closed escrow.
D6: Central North $ 690,500 $ 696,288 26 50 100.7% 0.1% -4.7% 23.8% 9.2% 2.5% -18.8%
D7: North $ 880,000 $ 924,453 31 74 102.3% 20.2% -0.1% 47.6% -20.0% -29.2% -16.2% Inven
D8: Northeast $ 759,750 $ 917,489 44 67 98.2% 38.9% 32.4% -10.2% -3.5% 0.7% -17.0% Number of properties actively
D9: Central East $ 650,000 $ 703,933 101 60 101.3% 12.7% 15.6% 40.3% -8.3% -13.3% 7.4% for sale as of the last day of the
month.
D10: Southeast $ 280,000 $ 323,333 3 34 104.5% -11.9% -0.4% 0.0% -17.0% 6.0% -50.0%

4. THE REAL ESTATE REPORT
San Francisco
Robb Fleischer
American Marketing Systems, Inc.
2800 Van Ness Avenue
San Francisco, CA 94109
Go online to see the full report
with the district by district breakdown:
HTTP://WWW.AMSIRES.COM/STAFF/ROBB
San Francisco Homes: Sales Momentum
(Continued from page 3)
25.0
The number of homes owned by the 20.0
bank fell 13.2% year-over-year. Banks 15.0
now own about 579 properties in San 10.0
Francisco. At the current rate of sales, 5.0
this is about a five weeks supply. Five 0.0
to six months supply is normal. -5.0 0 FMAMJ JA SOND0 FMAMJ JA SOND0 FMAMJ JA SOND1 FMAMJ JA SOND1 FMAMJ JASOND1 FMAMJ J
7 8 9 0 1 2
-10.0
Data supplied by -15.0
http://foreclosureradar.com. -20.0
-25.0
Sales Pricing © 2012 rereport.com
San Francisco Condos/Lofts: Sales Momentum
40.0
30.0
20.0
10.0
0.0
0 FMAMJ JA SOND0 FMAMJ JA SOND0 FMAMJ JA SOND1 FMAMJ JA SOND1 FMAMJ JASOND1 FMAMJ J
-10.0
7 8 9 0 1 2
-20.0
-30.0
-40.0
-50.0
Sales Pricing © 2012 rereport.com
The Real Estate Market Trends Report is published and copyrighted by http://rereport.com.