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ARA Research
ARA (March’15)- © 2015 -
ARA Research
IoT:
A Semiconductor Perspective
A.R. Alvarez
Global Semiconductor Foru...
Semiconductors
ARA (March’15)- © 2015 - 2
ARA Research
WW Semiconductor Sales
Will IoT Significantly Impact CAGR?
“Semicon...
Semiconductors
ARA (March’15)- © 2015 - 3
ARA Research
Annual IoT Device Sales
30 – 50B Connected Devices by 2020, ~10Bu S...
Semiconductors
ARA (March’15)- © 2015 - 4
ARA Research
IoT Economic Value
$3 - 9T – Who Will Capture The Value?
Semiconductors
ARA (March’15)- © 2015 - 5
ARA Research
2020 Value Pyramid
Value Factor of ~3 Increase at Each Level
IoT / ...
Semiconductors
ARA (March’15)- © 2015 - 6
ARA Research
IoT Reference Model
Semiconductor Components Mostly Level 1
Semiconductors
ARA (March’15)- © 2015 - 7
ARA Research
WW IC Unit Shipments
IoT Units ~3% of Total IC Unit Shipments in 20...
Semiconductors
ARA (March’15)- © 2015 - 8
ARA Research
2020 IC TAM ~$350B, IoT ~2%
2020 IC Units ~310Bu, IoT ~3%
2020 Sili...
Semiconductors
ARA (March’15)- © 2015 - 9
ARA Research
IoT: Where is the Money?
Semiconductors
(Wireless Comm, Sensors,
µC...
Semiconductors
ARA (March’15)- © 2015 - 10
ARA Research
Value is Not in Number of Things
But The Connections of People, Pr...
ARA Research
ARA (March’15)- © 2015 -
ARA Research
Appendix
Semiconductors
ARA (March’15)- © 2015 - 12
ARA Research
Semiconductors Enable $1.5T
End-Use Systems Market
IC Insights
Dec...
Semiconductors
ARA (March’15)- © 2015 - 13
ARA Research
IC End-Use Markets ($B)
IC Insights
Dec’14
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Io t semiconductor perspective (ara) 150313

This is from a panel session at the GSF Conference in Shanghai March 2015. The question I poised was whether IoT would change the semi revenue growth rate. I took a contrarian view and said ‘No, but that I hoped that I’m wrong”.

I did some back of the envelope math estimating the die sizes of what a typical IoT related ‘connection’ chip might be and then translated that into silicon consumption, revenue, etc. (pg. 8). My conclusion was that IoT ICs would contribute low single digit of revenue in 2020. But, I only looked at a slice of the market – not the impact on server farms, telecom infrastructure, etc. My gut feel is that even in those areas it won’t change the slope of the line – at least significantly – just maintain it.

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Io t semiconductor perspective (ara) 150313

  1. 1. ARA Research ARA (March’15)- © 2015 - ARA Research IoT: A Semiconductor Perspective A.R. Alvarez Global Semiconductor Forum Shanghai, China March 13, 2015
  2. 2. Semiconductors ARA (March’15)- © 2015 - 2 ARA Research WW Semiconductor Sales Will IoT Significantly Impact CAGR? “Semiconductor Industry Primer 2014” D. Wong (Wells Fargo) Nov’14 15% CAGR 4% CAGR
  3. 3. Semiconductors ARA (March’15)- © 2015 - 3 ARA Research Annual IoT Device Sales 30 – 50B Connected Devices by 2020, ~10Bu Sales Bank of America Merrill Lynch Dec’14
  4. 4. Semiconductors ARA (March’15)- © 2015 - 4 ARA Research IoT Economic Value $3 - 9T – Who Will Capture The Value?
  5. 5. Semiconductors ARA (March’15)- © 2015 - 5 ARA Research 2020 Value Pyramid Value Factor of ~3 Increase at Each Level IoT / IoE Value Creation ~$9T Semiconductor Enabled Product End Market ~$2.5T IC Sales ~$350B Finished Wfrs ~$100B
  6. 6. Semiconductors ARA (March’15)- © 2015 - 6 ARA Research IoT Reference Model Semiconductor Components Mostly Level 1
  7. 7. Semiconductors ARA (March’15)- © 2015 - 7 ARA Research WW IC Unit Shipments IoT Units ~3% of Total IC Unit Shipments in 2020 Bank of America – Merrill Lynch, Dec’14 IC Insights, June’14 Extrapolated IoT Unit Fcst
  8. 8. Semiconductors ARA (March’15)- © 2015 - 8 ARA Research 2020 IC TAM ~$350B, IoT ~2% 2020 IC Units ~310Bu, IoT ~3% 2020 Silicon MSI ~12,000 ~1.5% IoT Silicon Context in One Graphic DPW 3,800 15,000 1,600 6,500 Wfrs / Mth 64K 260K 28K 110K % Wfrs 1% 4% 0.5% 2% ASP 30¢ $1 IC TAM $7B $8B Die Size 4mm2 16mm2
  9. 9. Semiconductors ARA (March’15)- © 2015 - 9 ARA Research IoT: Where is the Money? Semiconductors (Wireless Comm, Sensors, µC) IoT – The Next RF ID For the Semiconductor Industry? Industry Needs to Move Beyond Silicon to Capture Full Value Big Data (Storage, Analytics, …) Telecom (Networks, Wireless Infrastructure) IoT Cisco, Huawei, Ericsson, … Supply Chain IBM, Oracle, EMC, HP, … Supply Chain
  10. 10. Semiconductors ARA (March’15)- © 2015 - 10 ARA Research Value is Not in Number of Things But The Connections of People, Process, Data & Things IoE in Action, J. Bradley, Cisco, Nov’14
  11. 11. ARA Research ARA (March’15)- © 2015 - ARA Research Appendix
  12. 12. Semiconductors ARA (March’15)- © 2015 - 12 ARA Research Semiconductors Enable $1.5T End-Use Systems Market IC Insights Dec’14
  13. 13. Semiconductors ARA (March’15)- © 2015 - 13 ARA Research IC End-Use Markets ($B) IC Insights Dec’14

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