Project Management Cookbook Part 1 (ARA) Feb16

Project Mgt - Part 1
ARA (Feb’16)- © 2016 - 1
ARA TRAINING
ARA TRAINING
PDCA Project Management
Cookbook
A.R. Alvarez

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Preamble
 Objective:
 Provide a Practical and Straightforward Approach to Project Mgt
 Emphasis on New Product Development; But Methodology Covered Can
Be Applied to Pretty Much Any Type of Project
 Included:
 Best Practices in Scheduling, Resourcing, Uncertainty & Risk Mgt with
Special Emphasis on Resolving Schedule Conflicts
 Introduction to Problem Solving (Separate Workshop Available)
 Phase Gate Architecture
 Incorporation of Agile/Scrum Concepts In General Project Mgt
 Review Meeting Templates
 Excluded:
 New Product Portfolio Management (Separate Workshop)
 Detailed Project Phase Gate Meeting Templates

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Project Management Outline
 Part 1: Project Management Set-Up(Plan)
 Project Management Principles
 Goals & Objectives
 Risk Management
 High Level Scheduling Concepts
 The Market Window- Development Team Capability Conundrum
 Part 2: Project Management Execution (Do)
 Detailed Project Scheduling & Schedule Uncertainty
 Project Team Meetings
 Project Management Toolkit
 Part 3: Project Management Oversight (Check & Act)
 Project Phase Gate Reviews
 Project Management Reviews
 Project Feedback & Response
 Appendix

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Deming’s PDCA Quality Cycle
Plan
Do
Check
Act

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Plan
(Set Goals, Resources & High Level Schedule)
Do
(Detailed Schedule, Daily /
Weekly Checks & Pull-in)
Check
(Mgt & Milestone Reviews)
Act
(Adjust Resources, Goals, & Schedule)

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Project Management
Complicated
Multi-Dimensional
Non-Deterministic
Messy
Critical
What Does This Mean?
If You Just Plan to Make Schedule You Will
Always Miss Your Schedule

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Opposing Forces
Market Timing
Entitlement (Mgt)
Scheduling Tools
Buy “A Day”
Scrubbing
If You Just Plan to Make Schedule . . .
You Will Always Miss
Complexity
Rework
Non-Determinism
Requirements Gap
Feature Creep

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Not An Easy Climb

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What You Need to Know
You Need to Know Where You’re Going
You Need to Know Where You Are
You Need to Know if You’re Off Track
How Hard is This to Do?
With a Team ?
By Yourself?

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What You Need to Do
Start With The End in Mind:
Define Success Criteria / Vital Signs
(If Project is Long, > 30 Days, …)
Develop a Roadmap:
Breakdown Success Criteria into Gates
Track The Path:
Develop Leading Indicators for Critical Steps & Tasks

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Manifesto For Agile
Software Development
Individuals and Interactions Over
Processes and Tools
Working Software Over
Comprehensive Documentation
Customer Collaboration Over
Contract Negotiation
Responding to Change Over
Following a Plan
http://www.agilemanifesto.org/

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Manifesto For Agile
Software Development
Individuals and Interactions Over
Processes and Tools
Working Software Over
Comprehensive Documentation
Customer Collaboration Over
Contract Negotiation
Responding to Change Over
Following a Plan
http://www.agilemanifesto.org/
Project
Mgt
‘Product’
To A
Point
To A
Point

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What
We
Want
To
Achieve
How
We
Intend
To
Achieve It
How
We
Work
To
Achieve It
“Customer”
Inputs
Project
Plan
Project
Execution

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1 After 1st Cycle
Replace “Set”
With “Adjust”
Plan
(Set1 Goals, Resources & High Level Schedule)
Check
Act
Do

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Project Goals

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Project Goals
 Clear Objectives
 Objective (Technical) Spec / OTS
 Customer Value Proposition(s)
 Cost Target
 Timeframe (i.e. Market or Funding Window, …)
 Unambiguous Deliverables / Expectations
 Project Vital Signs (Keep it Simple)
 Design, Product & Test Engineering
 Algorithms, Software / Firmware
 System Design
 Applications
 Technology and Operations
 Quality & Reliability
 Project Checklists
 Checklists at Major Milestones Can Insure Completeness of Deliverables
 Each Phase Should Have It’s Own Checklist
 Checklists Can Also Provide Method to Capture Learning
Goals /
Objectives
Events:
Vital Signs
Activities:
Checklists
Milestones

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Clear Objectives
 Clear Objectives Lead to Correct Priorities
 Performance Gap
 Temporal Effects
 Time in Existence
 Time To Solve
 Impact
 Proper Problem Definition Supports Clear Objectives
 Is it a Problem? (Check with Boss)
 Scope
 Dollarize It
 Priority
 Define Desired Outcome (Deliverable)
 Time Frame
 . . .

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Objective Specs = Lighthouse
There Will Be Storms ……… You Need a Lighthouse

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MRD* Example
Criteria /
Feature
Mandatory
(Must Have)
Differentiating
Target
Breakthrough
Target
Comments
* Market Requirements Document; Typically Used in Context of New Product Development; Can Be Adapted to Generic Prj
 MRD Reflects Market Requirements For Targeted:
 Problem Being Solved
 Timeframe
 Market Segment or Functional Area (As Appropriate)
 Customer Demographics (If Appropriate)
 Prioritization: Must Have, “Nice to Have”, Will Not Have
 Obviously Not All Criteria / Feature Will Have Differentiating Targets,
Very Few Will Probably Have Breakthrough Targets

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OTS* Example
* Objective Technical Spec; Applicable In Almost All Project Mgt Contexts; Always in New Product Development
 OTS Typically Reflects Agreed Plan of Record Response to MRD
 When Project Focus is New Product Development an MRD is Almost Always
Created First
 OTS Reflects Tradeoffs & Constraints: TTM, Cost, …
 Maintains Prioritization: Must vs. Nice to Have vs. Will Not Have & Timeline
 OTS Contains Significantly More Detail Than MRD; i.e. One MRD Feature
Often Breaks Down to Multiple Engineering Specs/Criteria
 Good Practice to Retain Original MRD to Document Original Request vs. Final
Agreement
Criteria /
Feature
Mandatory
(Must Have)
Differentiating
Target
Breakthrough
Target
Engineering
Response
Agreed to
Target (Spec)

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Project Vital Signs
(Chip Design Example)
Parameter
Unit
Spec /
MP Target
Sample
Target
Sample
Actual
MP
Actual
Current
Actual
Comment
Clock Freq MHz
DC Pwr mW
Die Size mm2
Yield %
Test Time ms
Etc.
 Project Vital Signs Are Translation of OTS Into Working Document
 Sets Targets for Engineering (or Prototype) Samples
 Sets Targets fro Mass Production Release (Typically = OTS Spec)
 Provides Format/Framework for Project Updates at Appropriate Intervals
 Can Have Vital Signs For Different Functions; i.e. SW vs. HW vs. Test vs. …
 Consider “Triggers” For Key Vital Signs at Critical Milestones/Phase Gates
* Still Applicable Outside of New Product Development Context, Though Milestone Nomenclature as Adapted to Situation

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Project Goals & Objectives
It’s Not
So Easy
Why?

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Stacey Matrix: Project Context
Requirements Can Be: Uncertain, Hard to Agree Too, Change Over Time
How To Manage?
http://i.stack.imgur.com/kr6Pu.png

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“Full” vs. “Iterative” Specifications

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“Full vs. Iterative” Specs
Criteria Low High Comments
Time To:
Demo Iterative Full If Takes Too Long or Costs to
Much to Demo or Recover
From a Change, Best to
Spend Time Up Front to
Fully Spec Project
Change/Recover Iterative Full
Cost To:
Demo Iterative Full
Change/Recover Iterative Full
Complexity
Internal to Prj Iterative Full As Linkages Go Up So Does
Need to Fully Spec ProjectExternal Linkages Iterative Full
Safety/Security Requirements Iterative Full Self-Evident
Customer
Openness to Change Full Iterative If Customer Only Wants
“Final” Product, Then Full
Spec Required“Good Enough” Full Iterative
Market
Clarity Iterative Full If Can’t See It, Can’t Spec It
Speed Competitive
Response
Iterative Full
Iterative Could Be OK, Limit
Introduction?
Supply Chain Responsiveness / Agility Full Iterative Self-Evident
It’s Situational, But Typically Best to Spec as Fully as Possible Up-Front

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Project Resources

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Project Resources
 What Type & How Many
 People: Skill Sets, Seniority, Etc.
 Tools: Equipment, Characterization, Materials, Etc.
 Account for Resource-Time Interaction (i.e. Availability & Capability)
 Work Styles
 Problem Solving Style / Approach
 Conflict Resolution Style
 Team Skills
 Cultural / Language
 Co-Location / Proximity
 Span of Control
 All Projects are Cross-Functional
 You Have Direct Control of Some Resources; But Not All
 Impact of Project Slips - Pipelining
 Clear Authority (Level) Along With Ownership (Which is Key)
 Motivation: Vision, Challenge, Recognition
Keep Resource Dependencies Off Critical Path!

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Project Teams Resource Mapping
Team
Next
Project
PG 1 to
PG 2
PG 2 to
PG 3
PG 3 to
PG ES
PG ES to
PG 4
Sustaining
Activities
Comment
A TBD X101 X102 None
B X108 X103 X104 Roadmap
C X109 X105 Std Cells
D TBD X106 X107 None
 Prj Teams Resource Mapping Maintains Balance & Utilization
 Most Companies Will Have Multiple Teams/Projects at Any One Time
 Need to Maintain Full Utilization of Project Teams Without Overloading
 “Pull” (i.e. Team Pulls Project into Active Queue) Rather Than “Push” (i.e.
Project Pushed onto Team) System Keeps Team From Overloading
 Template Provides Simple Way to Track Loading, Utilization, and
Highlights Potential Problems or Required Rebalancing

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Functional Group Mapping For Prjs
Functional
Group
Prj A Prj B Prj C Prj D Prj Etc
Sustaining
Activities
Comment
HW 20% 40% 0% 10% 20% 10% Slack
SW
Test
Quality
 Functional Group Mapping Insures Balance & Budgeting
 Most Companies Will Have Multiple Teams/Projects at Any One Time
 Need to Insure Support Functions as Well as Core Functional Groups Have
Capacity to Support Budgeted Projects
 Resource Models For Different Project Types and Stage Underpin Matrix
 Template Provides Simple Way to Track Loading, Utilization, and
Highlights Potential Problems or Required Rebalancing

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Individual Project Team Mapping
Design
Technology
 Complexity Box Sets Budgetary Team Size*
 Bottoms-Up Mgr’s Analysis Determines Recommendation; Is It
Consistent With Assigned Resources?
 Allow For Competency Levels – Not Just Numbers
 Get Full Resources When Needed; Adding Resources to Late Prj
More Often Then Not Makes it Later
Functional
Group
Name
Prj
Freeing
From
Concurrent
Prjs
Experience / Prj
match
(Competency /
Match)
Sustaining
Activities /
Availability
Comment
HW Lead Isabel X101 None High Low (< 10%)
HW Eng
HW Eng
SW Lead
Etc
* Prj Complexity Matrix Discussed Later

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Individual Project Team Timeline
 Critical That All Functions Be Represented at Every Stage
 Optimal For Core Team to Stay Together For Project Duration
 Optimal For Core Team Members to Be Dedicated Full Time
 Realistically However Some Resources Will Not Be Required Full Time or For
All Phases – These Will Move In & Out of Project – Obvious Source of Prj
Uncertainty / Risk
Functional
Group
Project
Scope
Project
Commit /
Launch
Alpha / Beta
Demonstration
Final Release /
Project Complete
Comment
Marketing 3 2 2 1
Sales 2 1 2 3
HW Engineering 2 5 5 4
SW Engineering 2 5 5 2
Mfg Engineering 1 1 2 4
Etc

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Team Dynamics Team Formation
 Team Stages
 Functional vs. Cross-Functional Teams
 Composition
 Typical Challenges
 Competing Priorities: Project vs. Project vs. Functional Job
 Team Competencies
 Resource Availability / Sufficiency
 Geographic Spread
 Team Leadership
 Who Leads the Team? At What Stage? When? How?; Prj Mgr Role (If Exists)
 When do You “Negotiate”? How?
 When do You Ask For Help? How?
 How About an Executive Sponsor?
Marketing Design Eng Product Eng Operations
Project
Launch
(PR2)
Sample
Gate
(AS)
Production
Gate
(PR4)
PR1
PR3 PR-ES
Project Manager

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Team Stages
(After B. Tuckman, 1965)
 Forming: Initiation Phase
 Prj Mgr Role: Must Bring Team Together, Ensuring Mutual Trust and Have Ability to
Develop Working Relationships; Directing or "Telling" Style
 Storming: Ideas & Styles Compete, How to Get Along?
 Prj Mgr Role: Guides Project Team Through Turbulent Transition Phase; Coaching
Style, i.e. Tolerance of Each Team Member & Differences Needs to Be Emphasized
 Norming: Rules, Values, Behavior, Methods, Tools Being Established
 Prj Mgr Role: Allows Team to Become Much More Autonomous; Participative Style
 Performing: Proactive, Learning, Improving; Roles Become Flexible;
Team Energy Channeled into Getting Task Done
 Prj Mgr Role: Lets Team Make Most of Necessary Decisions; Delegating Style
 Adjourning: Tasks are Being Completed &Team is Disassembled
 Prj Mgr Role: Introduce New Project or Hand Off Team to Another Prj Mgr in Order to
Re-Start Forming Stage of Team Development
http://www.12manage.com/methods_tuckman_stages_team_development.html

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Functional vs. Cross-Functional Teams
 Functional Team Advantages / Disadvantages
 Cross-Functional Team Advantages / Disadvantages
 How to Manage & Balance?
DE TE PE AE Ops SalesMK DE
TE
PE
AE
Ops
Sales
MK
Mgt
Functional
SiloWhite Space
Customer
&
New Product
Functional Teams X-Functional Teams
Customer & New Product

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Functional vs. Cross-Functional Teams
100%
X- Functional
100%
Functional
Time-To-Market
Generally With X-Functional Teams
TTM is Shorter & Quality is Higher
Quality
Value From X-Functional Teams Comes From X-Fertilization, But That Requires
Frequent Interaction and Openness to New Learning
All of Which is Facilitated By Co-Location and F2F Meetings

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Project Costs

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Project Costs
 Prj Costs are Important, But … :
 After Initial Estimate (For Prj ROI), I Rarely Spend Much Time On It
 Why? In Prj Mgt (In Particular New Prj Mgt) If You Make the Committed Schedule,
Costs Are Almost (99% ?) Secondary
 “No One” Asks You How Much You Spent if You Deliver on Time
 Being Late Almost Always Mean Reduced Margins & Market Share Loss ; In Some
Markets ASP Can Fall 15%+ Per Year

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Individual Project Costs
Cost Categories
Original
Budget
PG – 3
Update
PG – ES
Update
PG – 4
Update / Final
Comment
Personnel X101 None High
Tools
Resources
Etc.
 Prj Costs are Important, But …
 Focus on Making Schedule 1st, 2nd, and 3rd Priority; Than Manage Costs
 Late Prj Means That Prj Waiting For Those Resources Also Delayed
 Generally Prefer to Manage Detailed Development Budget at Portfolio
Rather Than Prj Level
 Typically Review Prj Costs Only at Kickoff & Major Milestones
 Typically Reasonable ±5 - 10% at Kickoff are Fine; Update at Major
Milestones Only if Original Estimate is Way Off (> 20%)

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Project Risk
Management

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Project Risk Management Plan
 Risk Identification
 RBS, Brainstorming, Fishbone/Tree Diagrams, FMEA, …
 Feasibility Studies
 Types: Controllable(Deal With Causes), Uncontrollable (Deal With Effects),
Unknown (Seek to Discover)
 Risk Evaluation: Quantification/Impact Matrix
 Risk Response
 Avoid : Take Action to Eliminate Risk
 Mitigate : Take Actions to Lessen Impact or Chance of Risk Occurring
 Transfer : Sometimes Makes Sense to Let Another Entity (Insurance, Known
Expert, …) Assume Risk; Risky in Itself, So Requires Close Monitoring
 Accept : Can’t Eliminate All Risks, So Manage Risk/Reward – If Risk Small,
Effort to Do Anything May Not Be Worth While
 Risk Monitoring and Control Management

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Risk Identification
In Project Management Are Risk & Uncertainty Just
Different Sides of The Same Coin?
Market
Competition
Engineering
Manufacturing
Types of Risk Areas of Risk
Uncertainty
Financial (TAM, SOM, Price, Cost)
Timing (Schedule, Delivery)
Performance (Specs)
Quality (or Safety)

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Risk Identification: Breakdown Study
 Breaks Down Project Risks into Addressable Units (Can Use Tree
Diagram Like Above, Table, Fishbone, Etc.)
 Granularity Required Depends on Consequences; Less is More, So
Typically Recommend No More Than Level 3
Project
Schedule
Risk
Market
Technology
Mfg
Level 1 Level 2

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Avoid,
Eliminate or
Mitigate
Most
Project Risk Evaluation Matrix
Risk Impact
Risk
Probability
Low High
High
Low
Avoid,
Eliminate or
Mitigate All
Accept
Some &
Mitigate
Accept Most
Medium
Medium Accept Most
& Mitigate
Avoid,
Eliminate or
Mitigate All
Avoid,
Eliminate or
Mitigate All
Mitigate
All
Mitigate
Most
Don’t Accept
Even L-L Risk If
Elimination is
Low Cost
Too Often
Ignored or
Understated

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Bow Tie Risk Mgt Analysis
 Lists Potential Causes of Known Risk; Can
Source Be From Fishbone or Tree Diagram
 Provides Planned or Existing Actions to
Control / Prevent Potential Cause
 Ineffective Against Unknown Risks
 Lists Potential Consequences If Risk is
Realized; Can Source From “Pre-Mortem”
 Provides Planned or Existing Actions to
Recover From Realized Risk
 Critical For Uncontrollable Risks
Risk
Event

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Project Risk Mgt Table
 Risk Category: Market/Customer, Technology, Mfg, …
 Probability (Of Occurrence): L-M-H or 1, 2, 4, 8, 16
 Impact: Quantified in Terms of Time, Performance, Cost, …
 Learning Required: What is Unknown That Needs to Be Understood
 Mitigation Strategy: How Risk is Being Addressed
 Who: Who is Responsible
 Reduction Date: Target Date for Reducing Risk to Acceptable Level (Low or Medium)
 Elimination Date: Target Date When Risk is Eliminated or Has Little/No Impact
Table Will Evolve – Keep Updated & Review at Phase Gate Milestones
Risk
Category
Risk Prob Impact
Learning
Required
Mitigation
Strategy
Who
Reduction
Date
Elimination
Date
Market
Technology
Mfg
ETC.

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Final Word On Risk
Some Degree of Risk Mgt
is Appropriate, …
But Not Practical or
Possible to “Plan Out” All
Risks or Surprises
So You Need to Create
Your Own Schedule
“Slack” or “Buffer”
How?
If You Just Plan to Make Schedule You Will Always
Miss Your Schedule

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Project High Level
Schedule

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Project Management Hierarchy
Phase Gate
Review
Bi-Monthly or
Monthly Review
Weekly Prj
Team Meeting
Team Working
Meetings
Eyes
Speedometer
Odometer
Map
After Agile Game Development With Scrum, C. Keith 2010
Different Measures &
Monitors Keep You On
Track When Driving
Same Applies
to Projects

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Project / Product Development Models
Concept
Development
Feasibility
Testing
Product
Design
Development
Process
Pilot
Production
Final
Production
Sequential /
Waterfall Phases
“Sashimi”
Phase Overlap
“Scrum”
Phase Overlap
After “The New Product Development Game”, H. Takeuchi, I. Nonaka, HBR Jan-Feb 1986
 Original Paper Created Bit of An Artificial/Extreme “Strawdog” Reference Model
 None-The-Less Emphasized Critical Need For Collaboration & “Parallel Work”
 Need For Phases / Appropriate Prj Oversight Isn’t Negated, But …
 … Need For Functional Experts to Work Together From Beginning, Teams to Stay
Cohesive for Project Duration, and Overlapping Phases/Co-Work Highlighted

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Project Roadmap: Phase Gates
 Scope: What Are We Trying To Do (What’s In / What’s Out) ?
 Commit/Launch: Is This Worth Doing? Why? What Priority?
 Interim Gate(s) (For Projects > 30 Days): Are We on Track?
 Beta Demonstration / Soft Turn-On: Are We Ready to Risk Customer
Sampling? Is There a Clear Path to Final Release?
 Project Completion / Final Release: Are We Really Going to Make
Money? Are We Ready to Make It?
PR1 PR2 PR3 PR4
Project Scope
Project Commit /
Launch
Alpha / Beta
Demonstration
Final Release /
Project Complete
Simplified Project Phase Gate Matrix

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Generic Project Phase Gates
 Phase Gates Can Number From 4 – 7 (Could Have Both Alpha & Beta Demo)
 Optional Phase Gates Include: Feasibility, Proto Launch or Alpha (Prj Complexity)
 Tailor Purpose, Questions, Etc. to Specific Project
PR1 PRF PR2 PR3 PR-Alpha PR4
Project Scope Feasibility
Project Commit /
Launch
Prototype Launch
Alpha or Beta
Demonstration
Project Complete
Description
& Purpose
• Justification:
• Business Need
• How it Helps
Competitiveness
• Prelim Financials
• Objective Spec
(Prelim Goals)
• BPI Scope / Budget
• Prelim Schedule
• PRF Resource
Approval
• Feasibility Review
• Process Map:
• “As Is”,
• Assessment
• “Desired ”
• Gap
• Benchmarking
Complete; Best-in
Class Identified
• Tool Needs Identified
• PR 2 Resource
Approval
• Concept & Scope
Complete
• Sub-Projects
Defined
• Ties to Other
Processes
• Tool Finalists
• Metrics Set
• Financials/ROI
• Schedule
• Resources R&R
• PR3 Resource
Approval
• Implementation Plan
Review(s)
• Barrier ID &
Removal Plan
• Integration with
Existing BP
• RAPID Model
• Metrics Update
• Schedule,
Resources & ROI
• New Tools Available
as Required
• Metrics: Actual vs.
Goals; Tracking
Methods
• Customer Level
Fcst Accuracy
• Key (All) Tools
Functional as
Required
• Path to Beta or
PR4
• Training Plan &
Materials
• Metrics: Actual vs.
Goals?
• Integration with
Existing BP
• Final Specs
• Maintenance
Requirements
• Sustaining Org
• Forum for
Continuous
Improvement
• Process Maturity
• Steps to Next Level
Questions
• Is Project Worth
Considering?
• Is Project Scoped?
• Is There a Strategic
Fit?
• Has Baseline BP &
Gaps Been Defined?
• Have New Tool
Requirements Been
Identified?
• Targets Set?
• Resources
Available?
• Does ROI Merit
‘Go’?
• Are We Ready To
Launch?
• Segmentation?
• New Tools Ready?
• Does ROI Merit ‘Go’?
• Alpha Stage Goals
Met?
• Clear Path To PR-
Beta and / or PR4?
• Ready For
Unconditional
Release?
• All Related Areas
Addressed?
Recommend Exec/Mgt Sponsor Appropriate Mgr Project Lead Project Lead Project Lead Project Lead
Agree
Appropriate
Functional Execs
Appropriate Functional
Execs
Appropriate
Functional Execs
Execs
Appropriate
Functional Execs
Execs
Decide COO/CFO COO/CFO COO/CFO COO COO COO/CFO

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PG-1 PG-F PG-2 PG-3 PG-AS PG-ES PG-4
Marketing Product
“Request”
Feasibility
Company
Commit
POR / Tapeout
Review
Alpha
(Prelim) Sample
Engineering
(Final) Sample
Release to
Production
Description &
Purpose
• Justification:
• Business Need
• How Helps
Competitiveness
• Preliminary
Objective Spec
• Prelim Financials
• Prelim Schedule
• PG-F Resource
Approval
• Feasibility
Study Review
• Equipment
Needs
Identified
• PG-2
Resource
Approval
• Goals Set
• Metrics Set
• Financials Set
• Schedule Set
• Resources R&R
• Equipment List
Finalized
• PG-3 Resource
Approval
• Process of
Record Review
• Metrics Update
• Schedule &
Resources
• Financials
• Equipment POs
• Metrics: Actual
vs. Goals
• Key Tools /
Equipment
Functional
• Path to PG-ES
or PG-4
• Metrics: Actual
vs. Goals
• Prelim Qual
Data
• All Tools / Equip
at Spec
• Path to PG-4
• Metrics: Actual
vs. Goals?
• Final Specs
• Final Qual
• Equip Capability
Questions
• Is product worth
considering?
• Is there a strategy
fit?
• Is there a
path to
achieving the
product
targets?
• Will we make
money?
• Can we make
and sell the
product?
• Are we ready to
make the
product?
• Will we make
money?
• Are we ready to
Alpha Sample?
• Will we make
money?
• Clear path to
ES, PG-4?
• Ready to Eng
Sample / Sell?
• Will we make
money?
• Clear path to
PG-4?
• Are we ready to
make it?
• Are we ready to
sell it?
• Do we make
money?
Recommend Marketing Mgr Eng Lead
Marketing or Prj
Mgr
Eng or Prj Mgr Eng or Prj Mgr Eng or Prj Mgr Eng or Prj Mgr
Agree
VP Marketing
VP Sales
VP Eng
VP Eng
VP Sales
VP Marketing
VP Eng, VP Ops
VP Marketing
VP Eng
VP Ops
Apps
Sales
Apps
Sales
COO
VP Sales
VP Marketing
VP Ops
Decide CEO, COO or GM VP-Marketing CEO, COO or GM CEO, COO or GM VP Marketing VP Marketing COO or VP Mfg
New Product Phase Gates
 Phase Gates Can Number From 4 – 7
 Optional Phase Gates Include: Feasibility, Alpha (or Engineering Sample)
 Tailor Purpose, Questions, Etc. to Specific Situation / Company

ARA (Feb’16)- © 2016 - 53
ARA TRAINING
Project Scheduling
 Adopt Adaptive Levels of Detail: Near Term Detail, Long Term Direction
 Why? Best Laid Plans Go Awry A Few Weeks Into a Project
 After Some Point More Detail Doesn’t Increase Certainty / Precision
Bottom Line: Don’t Waste Time on Detail That Will Shortly Be Obsolete
C. Keith, April’14

ARA (Feb’16)- © 2016 - 55
ARA TRAINING
Cone of Uncertainty
Visual Description of Evolution of Prj Uncertainty Over Time
 During Initial Project Phases Uncertainty Relatively High
 As Project Progresses Uncertainty is Reduced
 Detailed Planning For Production Stage During Concept/Design Stage is an
Exercise in Futility

ARA (Feb’16)- © 2016 - 56
ARA TRAINING
Cone of Uncertainty
 Tying Down Prj Scope, Elimination and/or “Locking Down” Variables Through Prj
‘Learning’ / ‘Discoveries’ Reduces Uncertainty Over Time …
 … But Effort Needs to Be Actively Managed & Focused For Optimal Impact
 Tools Like Prj FMEA & Tree Diagrams Can Be Useful in Highlighting Activities That Will
Have Maximum Impact on Reducing Uncertainty
Once Concept Has Been Fixed,
a Half Cone is a More Representative of Reality

ARA (Feb’16)- © 2016 - 57
ARA TRAINING
Project Scheduling & Complexity
Complexity (New Blocks / Total Blocks)
Time
To
Market
Larger Projects = More Complexity
More Complexity = More to Learn, More COL’s, More Time
Which is More Realistic: Linear or Non-Linear Relationship? Why?
Linear Increase
With Complexity
Non-Linear Increase
With Complexity

ARA (Feb’16)- © 2016 - 58
ARA TRAINING
Interdependence
of Elements
Dimensions of Prj Complexity
Project
Complexity
Structural
Complexity
Uncertainty
Elements
Size:
# of Elements
Uncertainty:
Non-Deterministic
Uncertainty:
Semi-Deterministic
Uncertainty:
Unforeseen Items
Adapted From MIT Open CourseWare 1.040 Prj Mgt Spring 2009
Structural Complexity
Compounded by Uncertainty
Interactions Couple in Complex
& at Times Unpredictable Ways

ARA (Feb’16)- © 2016 - 59
ARA TRAINING
Complexity vs. Uncertainty
Degree of Uncertainty
Degree of
Complexity
Low High
High
Low
Look For Ways to
Deconstruct Project To
Reduce Complexity &
Minimize Interactions,
Focus on Bringing Clarity
Quickly to Items/Paths
With High Uncertainty
Straightforward Project
That Lends Itself to Basic
Prj Mgt Techniques,
Minimizing Prj Mgt
Overhead to Maximum
Efficiency
Look For Ways to
Deconstruct Project To
Reduce Complexity &
Minimize Interactions,
Focus on Detailed Planning
Will Have High ROI
Project Steps are
Straightforward;
Focus on Bringing Clarity
Quickly to Items/Paths
With High Uncertainty

ARA (Feb’16)- © 2016 - 60
ARA TRAINING
Schedule Estimates: Starting Points
Options For Schedule Creation Starting Point
Start
T = 0
End
T = 
Task 1 Task 2 Task 3 Task X. . . Zero-Base
End
T = H-
Start
T = H
Comp X Comp 1 Comp X
End
T = H+
Comp 1 Historical
End
T = O-
Start
T = BC
Opt X Risk 1 Risk X
End
T = R+
Opt 1Best-Case

ARA (Feb’16)- © 2016 - 61
ARA TRAINING
Schedule Estimates: Zero-Base
 This is The Conventional & Probably The Most Common Way to
Create Schedules
 Detail Activities That Need to be Done
 Estimate How Long Each Activity Will Take
 Sequence The Activities Appropriately
 What are The Advantages? Limitations?
 When Might This Approach Be Appropriate? When Not?
 How Accurate Do You Think it is Typically?
Start
T = 0
End
T = 
Task 1 Task 2 Task 3 Task X. . .
Note: Detailed Project Scheduling is Covered in Next Section

ARA (Feb’16)- © 2016 - 62
ARA TRAINING
Schedule Estimates: Best-Case
End
T = O-
Start
T = BC
Opt X Risk 1 Risk X
End
T = R+
Opt 1
 This Approach is Often Taken When an Organization is Heavily
Marketing Driven or Led By a Strong-Willed Technology Savvy
Exec Prone to Top-Down Edicts (Never Happens in Si Valley)
 Determine When Project (or Product) Has to Be Completed By … Or
 Determine What is Theoretical Possible (or Better Then That) … Or
 Set Fairly Arbitrary Schedule That Team Thinks is Impossible … Or
 You Get the Idea

ARA (Feb’16)- © 2016 - 63
ARA TRAINING
Schedule Estimates: Historical
End
T = H-
Start
T = H
Comp X Comp 1 Comp X
End
T = H+
Comp 1
 This Approach Starts With Historical Data – From The Company
or Individual Team Members Collective Experience
 Determine How Long a Similar Activity Took in The Past (Median or 25th
Percentile of Several Similar Projects Would Be Ideal)
 Adjust Schedule From That Anchor Based on Typical Factors That Impact
Project Schedules (Team Competence, Relative Difficulty, Resource
Availability, …)

ARA (Feb’16)- © 2016 - 64
ARA TRAINING
Project Complexity MatrixProduct
Complexity
Technology Complexity
HighLow
Low
High
TT$
Resources
Project Cost
Risk
After S. Wheelwright, K.B. Clark, “Creating Project Plans to Focus Product Development”, HBR, March-April 1992

ARA (Feb’16)- © 2016 - 66
ARA TRAINING
Market Window vs. Development Team
Capability Conundrum
A Common Problem
Marketing Comes in With Opportunity
Gap Exits Between Market Window Requirement and
Development Team Capability to Deliver
What to Do?

ARA (Feb’16)- © 2016 - 67
ARA TRAINING
Development Team (DT)
TTM Capability
Marketing
Team
Visibility
Weak Best-in-Class
Full
Spectrum
Short
Only
Mismatch in MT &
DT Capabilities;
Going Out of
Business Quadrant –
Crises – Need to Fix
Both ASAP
DT Value Limited By
MT; Focusing on
Short Term Ops May
Be Only Option, But
Lower R&D ROI; Fix
MT Visibility
MT Compensating
for DT; Focusing on
Longer Term Ops
May Be Only Option,
But Not Viable Long
Term; Fix DT TTM
Target Quadrant –
Can Support Mix of
Near & Long Term
Prjs - Challenge is
Developing &
Keeping Capabilities

ARA (Feb’16)- © 2016 - 68
ARA TRAINING
Tactical Response
 Pass & Focus on More Achievable Opportunity
 Why Waste DT Resources on Project That Will Not Be Delivered on Time?
 Disengage From Opportunity in Appropriate Manner
 Heroic / “Bet The Company” Effort; Ships Burned
 Initiate “All Hands” Company Project
 Schedule Being King Sets Requirement For Everything That Must Happen
 All Necessary Resources / Funding Identified & Assigned
 Etc. …
 “Lean Forward”
 Launch Project Understanding That it Would Take Better Than Previous “Best-
Case” Performance, Betting That Market Window is “Flexible”
 Schedule Being King Sets Timelines For What Needs to Happen;
 Manage Aggressively (But Similar to Normal Prjs), Hoping For The Best

ARA (Feb’16)- © 2016 - 69
ARA TRAINING
Strategic Response
 “That’s Life” (Non-Response)
 Sometimes These Things Happen, That’s “Life”, Resign Yourself to It
 If it Happens too “Often”, Something is Wrong (How Much is Too Often?)
 Marketing
 Why Wasn’t This Opportunity Known Earlier?
 How Good is Customer/Market Knowledge?
 Is This is Repeating Pattern? Does Marketing Understand DT’s Capability?
 Is an Appropriate Mix of Near/Medium/Long Term Opportunities Identified,
 Etc. …
 Development
 How Good is Team’s TTM wrt Competition?
 How Consistent is Team on Meeting Schedule?
 Etc. …

ARA (Feb’16)- © 2016 - 72
ARA TRAINING
Project Management Outline
 Part 1: Project Management Set-Up(Plan)
 Project Management Principles
 Goals & Objectives
 Risk Management
 High Level Scheduling Concepts
 The Market Window- Development Team Capability Conundrum
 Part 2: Project Management Execution (Do)
 Detailed Project Scheduling & Schedule Uncertainty
 Project Team Meetings
 Project Management Toolkit
 Part 3: Project Management Oversight (Check & Act)
 Project Phase Gate Reviews
 Project Management Reviews
 Project Feedback & Response
 Appendix
Part 2
Next

Project Management Cookbook Part 1 (ARA) Feb16

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