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Quarterly Market Analysis

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Analysis for RIAs to send with quarterly performance reports and use in RIA newsletters and RIA websites.

Publicado en: Economía y finanzas
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Quarterly Market Analysis

  1. 1. Quarterly Market Summary 3rd Quarter 2012 A Great Quarter For U.S. Stocks
  2. 2. 1500145014001350130012501200 Standard & Poor’s 500 Index Three Quarters Ended September 30, 20121150 Jan-12 Mar-12 May-12 Jul-12 Sep-12
  3. 3. 1600140012001000 800 600 400 200 Standard & Poor’s 500 Index Three Years Ended September 30, 2012 0 Sep-09 Jan-10 May-10 Sep-10 Jan-11 May-11 Sep-11 Jan-12 May-12
  4. 4. 18001600140012001000 800 600 400 200 Standard & Poor’s 500 Index Five Years Ended September 30, 2012 0 Oct-07 Jul-08 Apr-09 Jan-10 Oct-10 Jul-11 Apr-12
  5. 5. S&P 500 TR Global REIT High Yield Leveraged Loans Commodities Crude Oil Gold Muni Bonds Treasury Bonds Asset Classes Ag Commodities Euro (€) 12 Months Ended September 30, 2012-10.0% -5.0% 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0% 30.0% 35.0% Commodities Gold Crude Oil S&P 500 Ag Commodities Leveraged Loans High Yield Asset Classes Global REIT 3rd Quarter 2012 Muni Bonds Euro (€) Treasury Bonds0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0% 12.0% 14.0% Standard & Poor’s/BG Cantor 7-10 Year U.S. Treasury S&P 500 Total Return Index; S&P GSCI Index; Barclays Bond Index (total return); S&P Global REIT Index (total Ipath Crude Oil ETF; Currencyshares Euro Trust ETF; SPDR return); S&P Municipal Bond Investment Grade Index Gold Trust ETF; Powershares DB Agriculture ETF. (total return); S&P Leveraged Loan Index (total return);
  6. 6. 1500 Weak March-June jobs reports; 9/13/12 May-June 4/2/12 European austerity Fed announces 2011: 1,419 fatigue QE 3 4/29/11 softer 7/21/11 9/6/12 1400 1363 economic 2nd European Rescue ECB announces data Plan - increased EFSF, unlimited 20% Greek haircut bond-buying -10% 7/26/12 program 1300 +29% +33% ECB says it will "do whatever 4/23/10 6/1/12 it takes" 1217 1,278 to save euroS&P 500 Index -19% 1200 6/20/12 Operation Twist 12/19/10 12/20/11 extended through YE -16% Meredith Whitney: ECB institutes LTRO "You could see fifty to 1100 100 sizeable defaults." 8/5/11 10/3/11 8/27/10 S&P cuts U.S. 1,099 Bernankes speech debt rating 5/6/10 Flash Crash 7/2/10 at Jackson Hole, 1000 5/9/10 1022 hinting at QE2. 1st European 8/13/10 David Rosenberg: Rescue Plan double-dip recession is QE 1 "a virtual certainty." QE 2 Operation Twist1 and QE 3 900 Jan-10 Oct-10 Jan-11 Oct-11 Jan-12 Oct-12 Apr-10 Apr-11 Apr-12 Jul-10 Jul-11 Jul-12 Source: Standard & Poor’s. Data through October 5, 2012. 1Fed’s September 13th meeting statement: the Committee decided to continue through the end of the year its program to extend the average maturity of its holdings; buy $40 billion per month of mortgage-backed bonds, open-ended commitment (QE 3). 2 Barron’s survey of 10 Wall Street strategists published December 19, 2011.
  7. 7. Consumer Income, Spending, And Saving 12,000 1,200 10,000 1,000 Disposable Personal Income (left) 8,000 800 Personal Spending$ billions SAAR (left ) $ billions SAAR 6,000 600 4,000 400 . 2,000 Personal Saving 200 (right) 0 0 2012-Jun 1996-Aug 1995-Jan 2007-Sep 2009-Apr 2010-Nov 2006-Feb 2001-May 2002-Dec 1998-Mar 1999-Oct 2004-Jul U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis data through July 2012. © Fritz Meyer Economic Research
  8. 8. 1,000 873 500Monthly Change in Payrolls (000) Household survey 114 0 -500 Establishment survey -1,000 -1,500 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics; data through September 2012. 1
  9. 9. 7065 ISM Manufacturing Index605550454035 Clear bands indicate recession.30 Jan-89 Jan-92 Jan-95 Jan-98 Jan-01 Jan-04 Jan-07 Jan-10 Source: Institute for Supply Management; data through September 2012.
  10. 10. 1600 Standard & Poor’s 500 Index 61400 51200 41000800 3600 2400 10-Year Treasury Note Yield 1200 0 0
  11. 11. 16 14 Inflation Remains Benign 12 10Percent Change Y/Y 8 6 Consumer Price Index 4 2 Core CPI 0 Jan-70 Jan-74 Jan-78 Jan-82 Jan-86 Jan-90 Jan-94 Jan-98 Jan-02 Jan-06 Jan-10 -2 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics through August 2012
  12. 12. Actual/Forecast 2013-III(E) 2013-I(E) 2012-III(E) 2012-I 2011-III 2011-I 2010-III 2010-I 2009-III 2009-I 2008-III 2008-I 2007-III 2007-I 2006-III 2006-I 2005-III 2005-I 2004-III 2004-I 2003-III 2003-I 2002-III 2002-I 2001-III 2001-I 2000-III 2000-I 1999-III 1999-I 1998-III 1998-I 1997-III 1997-I9 7 5 3 1 -3 -1 -5 -7 Q/Q % change(annualized)
  13. 13. 6.50 Russell Emerging Markets Index Russell Asia ex-Japan Index Russell Developed Europe Index Russell 1000 Index5.50 $4.894.50 $4.003.50 $2.542.50 $2.131.500.50 Oct-02 Oct-03 Oct-04 Oct-05 Oct-06 Oct-07 Oct-08 Oct-09 Oct-10 Oct-11 Includes dividends reinvested
  14. 14. 1.35 Russell Emerging Markets Index Russell Asia ex-Japan Index Russell Developed Europe Index Russell 1000 Index $1.301.301.25 $1.21 $1.221.20 $1.201.151.101.051.000.95 Oct-11 Jan-12 Apr-12 Jul-12 Includes dividends reinvested
  15. 15. 12 World GDP Growth Forecasts 10 8GDP Growth (% Change Y/Y) 6 4 2009-2011 Actual 2 2012-2013 Forecast 0 -2 -4 -6 -8 Euro Area U.S. Japan China Brazil India Source: IMF, World Economic Outlook Update.

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