Airport Forecasting- Article 3, it show how to plan to match long range target by short range targets, with differents models

1. AIRPORTS Forecasting
Matching Long Range Data Targets
By Short Range Data Targets
by: Mohammed Salem Awad
Research Scholar – Aviation Management
Forecasting is the right tool for a fair decision making, we use
it to create a proper plans ,activities and setting up budgets.
But what is the right effective model, what are the right
parameters to measure the goodness of fits, and how to plan to
match the long range targets by a short range targets, can we
get same answer from different models. This is what we will
address it in …. “Plans are nothing;
planning is everything.”
Nice Airport Case Study: Dwight D. Eisenhower
1- Developing Long Range Targets:
Trend Model:
Based on annual historical data period (1950-2011)
Input Data: 51 sets ( Annually )
Coefficient of Determination:
99.6 %
Signal Tracking : 0.0000011
Results :
Passengers Forecast 2012 =
10,467,360
Passengers Forecast 2013 =
10,493,391
2- Developing Short Range
Targets:
Seasonality Model:
Based on monthly 3 years data
period (2009-2011)
Input Data: 36 sets ( Monthly )
Coefficient of Determination:
96.7 %
Signal Tracking : -30.14
Results :
Passengers Forecast 2012 =
10,467,360
Passengers Forecast 2013 =
10,493,391
Summary:
The results are fairly matched, so it
possible to plan in such a way that,
we utilize the annual trends to
meet the annual cumulative
forecast of the seasonality model
for two forecasted years, keeping
in mind the pre-request constrains
for both models.

2. AIRPORTS Forecasting YEMEN Airports: SANA'A
Airport
Airports Forecasting:
Airport forecasting is an important issue in
Aviation industry. It becomes an integral parts of
transportation planning. It sets targets and goals
for the airports, either for long term or medium
term planning. The primary statistical methods
used in airport aviation activity forecasting are
market share approach, econometric modeling,
and time series modeling.
Model Used:
Based on a historical data of the airports, (3 years
on monthly bases) the mathematical model is
developed where its fairness and goodness of fit
can be defined by two important factors:
R2 (Coeff. Of Determination) > 80%
S. T (Signal Tracking) ..(- 4  S.T.  4)
This time we try to set (S.T.) to Zero
Airport Performances:
There are many factors that may measure the
airport performance, mainly:
1) Number of Passengers.
2) Aircraft Movement and
3) Freight
SANA'A Airport:
Sana'a International Airport or El Rahaba
Airport (Sana'a International) (IATA:
SAH, ICAO: OYSN) is an international airport
located in Sana'a, the capital of Yemen. Recently
Yemen passes in a transition phase, as results a
democracy. This situation effects on 2011 data
base.
So the basic analysis addressing 2008, 2009, and
2010. And the forecasted period are 2011 and
2012. But in this issue we are addressed the
Yemenia and Other Operators
Yemenia :
Passenger Forecasting 2012 = 764,398 Pax
Peak Periods: July-August
Annual Growth : (0.02) %
The Model is not fair as R = 44%
Other Operators:
Passenger Forecasting 2012 = 600513Pax
Peak Periods: July
Annual Growth : 0.08 %
The Model is not fair as R = 77%
Total –
Yemenia and Other Operators
Passenger Forecasting 2012 = 1,340,118Pax
Peak Periods: July - August
Annual Growth : 0.01 %
The Model is not fair as R = 66%

3. AIRPORTS Forecasting INTERNATIONALS Airports
Paris-Charles de Gaulle Airport (IATA:
CDG, ICAO: LFPG) (French: Aéroport Paris-
Charles de Gaulle), is one of the world's principal
aviation centers, as well as France's largest
airport. It is named after Charles de Gaulle
(1890–1970), leader of the Free French Forces
and founder of the French Fifth Republic. It is
located within portions of several communes,
25 km (16 mi) to the northeast of Paris. The
airport serves as the principal hub for Air France.
In 2011, the airport handled 60,970,551
passengers and 514,059 aircraft movements,
making it the world's sixth busiest airport and
Europe's second busiest airport (after London
Heathrow) in passengers served.
Passenger Forecasting 2012 = 62,166,461 Pax
Annual Growth : 2.6 %
The Model is fair fitted as R2 = 93 %
Denver International Airport (IATA: DEN,
ICAO: KDEN, FAA LID: DEN), often referred
to as DIA, is an airport in Denver, Colorado. In
2011 Denver International Airport was the 11th-
busiest airport in the world by passenger traffic
with 52,699,298 passengers. It was the fifth-
busiest airport in the world by aircraft movements
with over 635,000 movements in 2010.. Denver
International Airport is the main hub for low-cost
carrier Frontier Airlines and commuter carrier
Great Lakes Airlines. It is also the fourth-largest
hub for United Airlines.
Passenger Forecasting 2012 = 53,986,884 Pax
Annual Growth : 2.21%
The Model is fair fitted as R2 = 97.7 %
Chicago O'Hare International Airport (IATA:
ORD, ICAO: KORD, FAA LID: ORD), also
known as O'Hare Airport, O'Hare Field,
Chicago Airport, Chicago International
Airport, or simply O'Hare, is a major airport
located in the northwestern-most corner of
Chicago, Illinois, United States. prior to 1998,
O'Hare was the busiest airport in the world in
terms of the number of passengers. O'Hare has a
strong international presence, with flights to more
than 60 foreign destinations: it is the fourth
busiest international gateway in the United States
behind John F. Kennedy International Airport in
New York City, Los Angeles International
Airport and Miami International Airport.
Passenger Forecasting 2012 = 67,859,340 Pax
Annual Growth : 1.34 %
The Model is fair fitted as R2 = 97.3 %

4. AIRPORTS Forecasting INTERNATIONALS Airports
Nice Côte d'Azur Airport (IATA: NCE, ICAO:
LFMN) is an airport located 3.2 NM (5.9 km;
3.7 mi) southwest of Nice, in the Alpes-
Maritimes department of France. The airport is
positioned 7 km (4 mi) west of the city centre,
and is the principal port of arrival for passengers
to the Côte d'Azur. It is the third busiest airport in
France after Charles de Gaulle International
Airport and Orly Airport, both in Paris. Due to its
proximity to the Principality of Monaco, it also
serves as the city-state's airport, Some airlines
marketed Monaco as a destination via Nice
Airport. it is also serves as a hub for Air France.
Passenger Forecasting 2012 = 10,496,380 Pax
Annual Growth : 2.62 %
The Model is fair fitted as R2 = 98.3 %
Edmonton International Airport (IATA:
YEG, ICAO: CYEG) is the primary air
passenger and air cargo facility in the Edmonton
region of the Canadian province of Alberta. It is a
hub facility for Northern Alberta and Northern
Canada, providing regularly scheduled nonstop
flights to over fifty communities in Canada, the
United States, Latin America and Europe. It is
one of Canada's largest airports by total land area,
the 5th busiest airport by passenger traffic, and
the 10th busiest by aircraft movements. Operated
by Edmonton Airports and located 14 NM
(26 km; 16 mi) south southwest of downtown
Edmonton, in Leduc County, and adjacent to the
City of Leduc, it served over 6.2 million
passengers in 2011.
Passenger Forecasting 2012 = 6,329,057 Pax
Annual Growth : 1.4 %
The Model is fair fitted as R2 = 91.9 %
London Heathrow Airport or Heathrow
(IATA: LHR, ICAO: EGLL) is a major
international airport serving London, England,
United Kingdom. Located in the London Borough
of Hillingdon, in West London, Heathrow is the
busiest airport in the United Kingdom and the
third busiest airport in the world (as of 2012) in
terms of total passenger traffic, handling more
international passengers than any other airport
around the globe. It is also the busiest airport in
the EU by passenger traffic and the third busiest
in Europe given the number of traffic movements,
with a figure surpassed only by Paris-Charles de
Gaulle Airport and Frankfurt Airport.
Passenger Forecasting 2012 = 70,557,827 Pax
Annual Growth : 2.6 %
The Model is fair fitted as R2 = 89 %