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Machine Intelligence: Promises and Challenges

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A talk I gave at Techne Summit (https://www.technesummit.com/) that took place at the Bibliotheca Alexandrina, Alexandria, October 24-25, 2015.

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Machine Intelligence: Promises and Challenges

  1. 1. MUSES_SECRET: ORF-RE Project - © PAMI Research Group – University of Waterloo 1/221Techne Summit 2015 © Dr. Alaa Khamis Machine Intelligence: Promises and Challenges Alaa Khamis, PhD, SMIEEE Principal Consultant at MIO, Waterloo, Canada Associate Professor at Suez University, Egypt http://www.alaakhamis.org/ Bibliotheca Alexandrina, Alexandria, October 24-25, 2015 Machine Intelligence and Optimization
  2. 2. MUSES_SECRET: ORF-RE Project - © PAMI Research Group – University of Waterloo 2/222Techne Summit 2015 © Dr. Alaa Khamis Talk Description
  3. 3. MUSES_SECRET: ORF-RE Project - © PAMI Research Group – University of Waterloo 3/223Techne Summit 2015 © Dr. Alaa Khamis Outline
  4. 4. MUSES_SECRET: ORF-RE Project - © PAMI Research Group – University of Waterloo 4/224Techne Summit 2015 © Dr. Alaa Khamis Human versus Machine Intelligence Credit: Techne Summit 2015 Introduction to Machine Intelligence
  5. 5. MUSES_SECRET: ORF-RE Project - © PAMI Research Group – University of Waterloo 5/225Techne Summit 2015 © Dr. Alaa Khamis • Machine vs. Human • distinguishing faces • identifying objects and • recognizing language soundsBrain Hamburger Introduction to Machine Intelligence Better in
  6. 6. MUSES_SECRET: ORF-RE Project - © PAMI Research Group – University of Waterloo 6/226Techne Summit 2015 © Dr. Alaa Khamis • Machine vs. Human • dealing with more complex patterns such as that exist in financial, scientific, or product data. • operations that require fast, precise, highly repeatable actions • Working in harsh environments Machine Introduction to Machine Intelligence Better in
  7. 7. MUSES_SECRET: ORF-RE Project - © PAMI Research Group – University of Waterloo 7/227Techne Summit 2015 © Dr. Alaa Khamis • Brian Functions Introduction to Machine Intelligence
  8. 8. MUSES_SECRET: ORF-RE Project - © PAMI Research Group – University of Waterloo 8/228Techne Summit 2015 © Dr. Alaa Khamis Machine Intelligence = Non-biological Intelligence Inspired from Natural Sciences Non-biological Intelligence Neural Networks Computational Intelligence (CI)Artificial Intelligence (AI) Metaheuristics Trajectory-based Population-based Evolutionary Computing Swarm Intelligence Mathematics, probability and Statistics Fuzzy Logic Inspired from Social Sciences Classical AI Distributed AI (DAI) Psychology, linguistics, logic Neuro-physiology Bayesian Techniques Reinforcement Learning Behaviorist psychologyParallel Problem Solving Distributed Problem Solving Multiagent-based Simulation (MABS) Introduction to Machine Intelligence
  9. 9. MUSES_SECRET: ORF-RE Project - © PAMI Research Group – University of Waterloo 9/229Techne Summit 2015 © Dr. Alaa Khamis • Levels of Intelligence: Smart Phones Phones Cognitive Phones Introduction to Machine Intelligence
  10. 10. MUSES_SECRET: ORF-RE Project - © PAMI Research Group – University of Waterloo 10/2210Techne Summit 2015 © Dr. Alaa Khamis Outline
  11. 11. MUSES_SECRET: ORF-RE Project - © PAMI Research Group – University of Waterloo 11/2211Techne Summit 2015 © Dr. Alaa Khamis Application Domains and Trends • Paradigm Shift
  12. 12. MUSES_SECRET: ORF-RE Project - © PAMI Research Group – University of Waterloo 12/2212Techne Summit 2015 © Dr. Alaa Khamis Application Domains and Trends • Paradigm Shift Largest direct marketing platform World’s largest bookseller Fastest growing entertainment companies Fastest growing telecom company Fastest growing recruiting company [1]
  13. 13. MUSES_SECRET: ORF-RE Project - © PAMI Research Group – University of Waterloo 13/2213Techne Summit 2015 © Dr. Alaa Khamis Application Domains and Trends • Paradigm Shift 18.49 16.77 2.83 2.49 2 1.86 1.78 1.4 0.27 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 European Union USA Arab World Africa 8 Top Tech Companies Russia Canada Australia Egypt GDP(trillionUS$)
  14. 14. MUSES_SECRET: ORF-RE Project - © PAMI Research Group – University of Waterloo 14/2214Techne Summit 2015 © Dr. Alaa Khamis Application Domains and Trends
  15. 15. MUSES_SECRET: ORF-RE Project - © PAMI Research Group – University of Waterloo 15/2215Techne Summit 2015 © Dr. Alaa Khamis Application Domains and Trends
  16. 16. MUSES_SECRET: ORF-RE Project - © PAMI Research Group – University of Waterloo 16/2216Techne Summit 2015 © Dr. Alaa Khamis Application Domains and Trends 302% increase in funding received in 2014 by machine intelligence start-ups in areas such as natural language processing, predictive analytics and deep learning Total venture capital money for pure AI start-ups, by year
  17. 17. MUSES_SECRET: ORF-RE Project - © PAMI Research Group – University of Waterloo 17/2217Techne Summit 2015 © Dr. Alaa Khamis • Smart Cities Application Domains and Trends Smart City Market Source: Frost and Sullivan Smart cities to crate huge business opportunities with a market value of 1.5 Trillion $ in 2020.
  18. 18. MUSES_SECRET: ORF-RE Project - © PAMI Research Group – University of Waterloo 18/2218Techne Summit 2015 © Dr. Alaa Khamis • Consumer Electronics Smart Bluetooth® Speaker BSP60 Application Domains and Trends
  19. 19. MUSES_SECRET: ORF-RE Project - © PAMI Research Group – University of Waterloo 19/2219Techne Summit 2015 © Dr. Alaa Khamis [5] • Robotics Application Domains and Trends
  20. 20. MUSES_SECRET: ORF-RE Project - © PAMI Research Group – University of Waterloo 20/2220Techne Summit 2015 © Dr. Alaa Khamis Robots now are with us, within us and among us • Robotics Application Domains and Trends [5]
  21. 21. MUSES_SECRET: ORF-RE Project - © PAMI Research Group – University of Waterloo 21/2221Techne Summit 2015 © Dr. Alaa Khamis Google commits $1.36 billion for NASA facility, to house their robotics, space and flight technologies [More info: http://robohub.org/google-commits- 1-36-billion-for-nasa-facility-to-house- their-robotics-space-and-flight- technologies/ • Robotics Application Domains and Trends
  22. 22. MUSES_SECRET: ORF-RE Project - © PAMI Research Group – University of Waterloo 22/2222Techne Summit 2015 © Dr. Alaa Khamis ◊ Congress has mandated that by 2015, 1/3rd of all US military missions should be unmanned. ◊ There are 17,300 drones in the US army inventory. ◊ These drones can carry up to 3000 pounds of weapons. ◊ Fabricated by Boeing A forward looking infrared (FLIR) camera onUAV UAV carrying Viper Strike Weapon System Source: http://www.marketresearchmedia.com/?p=509 • Robotics Application Domains and Trends
  23. 23. MUSES_SECRET: ORF-RE Project - © PAMI Research Group – University of Waterloo 23/2223Techne Summit 2015 © Dr. Alaa Khamis The Transparent Car • Machine Vision Application Domains and Trends According to a new report from , the market for computer vision technologies will grow from $5.7 billion in 2014 to $33.3 billion by 2019 , representing a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 42%. 5.7 33.3 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 Year-2014 Year-2019 Marketsize(BillionUSD)
  24. 24. MUSES_SECRET: ORF-RE Project - © PAMI Research Group – University of Waterloo 24/2224Techne Summit 2015 © Dr. Alaa Khamis Automatic recognition of fabric defects (visual inspection) Lane detectionFace Detection • Machine Vision Application Domains and Trends
  25. 25. MUSES_SECRET: ORF-RE Project - © PAMI Research Group – University of Waterloo 25/2225Techne Summit 2015 © Dr. Alaa Khamis Alfred Russel Wallace Charles Darwin Charles Darwin Alan Turing with Darwin’s beard Face Recognition [6] • Machine Vision Application Domains and Trends
  26. 26. MUSES_SECRET: ORF-RE Project - © PAMI Research Group – University of Waterloo 26/2226Techne Summit 2015 © Dr. Alaa Khamis Behind the Mic: The Science of Talking with Computers: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yxxRAHVtafI • Speech Recognition SPEECH RECOGNIZER Speaker Recognized text Acoustic Model Dictionary & Grammar Speech signal Application Domains and Trends
  27. 27. MUSES_SECRET: ORF-RE Project - © PAMI Research Group – University of Waterloo 27/2227Techne Summit 2015 © Dr. Alaa Khamis Global voice recognition market to reach $113 Billion in 2017 [More info: http://www.bccresearch.com/pressroom/ift/global-voice-recognition-market-reach-$113-billion-2017 ] • Speech Recognition Application Domains and Trends
  28. 28. MUSES_SECRET: ORF-RE Project - © PAMI Research Group – University of Waterloo 28/2228Techne Summit 2015 © Dr. Alaa Khamis • Visual Microphone Application Domains and Trends
  29. 29. MUSES_SECRET: ORF-RE Project - © PAMI Research Group – University of Waterloo 29/2229Techne Summit 2015 © Dr. Alaa Khamis • Natural Language Processing (NLP) ◊ Machine translation ◊ Optical character recognition (OCR) ◊ Natural language understanding ◊ Topic segmentation and recognition ◊ Language Modeling in Speech recognition ◊ Information retrieval (IR)and extraction (IE) ◊ … Application Domains and Trends
  30. 30. MUSES_SECRET: ORF-RE Project - © PAMI Research Group – University of Waterloo 30/2230Techne Summit 2015 © Dr. Alaa Khamis • Natural Language Processing (NLP) Source: Natural Language Processing Market, by marketsandmarkets.com, June 2015, Report Code: TC 3492 Application Domains and Trends
  31. 31. MUSES_SECRET: ORF-RE Project - © PAMI Research Group – University of Waterloo 31/2231Techne Summit 2015 © Dr. Alaa Khamis • Predictive Maintenance Application Domains and Trends
  32. 32. MUSES_SECRET: ORF-RE Project - © PAMI Research Group – University of Waterloo 32/2232Techne Summit 2015 © Dr. Alaa Khamis • Predictive Analytics and Big Data Discover, optimize, and deploy predictive models by analysing data sources to improve business outcomes. Application Domains and Trends
  33. 33. MUSES_SECRET: ORF-RE Project - © PAMI Research Group – University of Waterloo 33/2233Techne Summit 2015 © Dr. Alaa Khamis IoT brings physical and digital worlds together. It replaces ownership by remote access and sharing. [2] • Internet of Things (IoT) Application Domains and Trends
  34. 34. MUSES_SECRET: ORF-RE Project - © PAMI Research Group – University of Waterloo 34/2234Techne Summit 2015 © Dr. Alaa Khamis [3] • Internet of Things (IoT) Application Domains and Trends
  35. 35. MUSES_SECRET: ORF-RE Project - © PAMI Research Group – University of Waterloo 35/2235Techne Summit 2015 © Dr. Alaa Khamis Biology: tumor detection, drug discovery Energy: Load, price forecasting, trading Financial Services: identify prospective customers, dissatisfied customers, good customers and bad payers. Security: Face recognition, Signature/fingerprint/iris verification, DNA fingerprinting Internet: Hit ranking, Spam filtering, Text categorization • Others Application Domains and Trends
  36. 36. MUSES_SECRET: ORF-RE Project - © PAMI Research Group – University of Waterloo 36/2236Techne Summit 2015 © Dr. Alaa Khamis • Machine Intelligence Landscape Application Domains and Trends [4]
  37. 37. MUSES_SECRET: ORF-RE Project - © PAMI Research Group – University of Waterloo 37/2237Techne Summit 2015 © Dr. Alaa Khamis Technological singularity hypothesis is that accelerating progress in technologies will cause a runaway effect wherein artificial intelligence will exceed human intellectual capacity and control, thus radically changing or even ending civilization in an event called the singularity [10]. Application Domains and Trends • Technological Singularity
  38. 38. MUSES_SECRET: ORF-RE Project - © PAMI Research Group – University of Waterloo 38/2238Techne Summit 2015 © Dr. Alaa Khamis [5] Application Domains and Trends
  39. 39. MUSES_SECRET: ORF-RE Project - © PAMI Research Group – University of Waterloo 39/2239Techne Summit 2015 © Dr. Alaa Khamis Genetics Emerging Technologies Nano-technology Robotics Humanity’s artificial-intelligence capabilities begin to upstage our human intelligence at the end of the 2030s [6]. Accelerating progress in biotechnology will enable us to reprogram our genes and metabolic processes. Nanotechnology promises the tools to rebuild the physical world, our bodies, and our brains, molecular fragment by molecular fragment and potentially atom by atom. Creation of machine thinking ability that exceeds the thinking ability of humans. Immortality by 2045! Application Domains and Trends
  40. 40. MUSES_SECRET: ORF-RE Project - © PAMI Research Group – University of Waterloo 40/2240Techne Summit 2015 © Dr. Alaa Khamis Application Domains and Trends
  41. 41. MUSES_SECRET: ORF-RE Project - © PAMI Research Group – University of Waterloo 41/2241Techne Summit 2015 © Dr. Alaa Khamis Outline
  42. 42. MUSES_SECRET: ORF-RE Project - © PAMI Research Group – University of Waterloo 42/2242Techne Summit 2015 © Dr. Alaa Khamis Challenges
  43. 43. MUSES_SECRET: ORF-RE Project - © PAMI Research Group – University of Waterloo 43/2243Techne Summit 2015 © Dr. Alaa Khamis 1. Technological Challenges Challenges
  44. 44. MUSES_SECRET: ORF-RE Project - © PAMI Research Group – University of Waterloo 44/2244Techne Summit 2015 © Dr. Alaa Khamis • Big Data Challenges 90% of the world’s stock of data was generated in the past two years. 99% of that is now digitized, and over half IP-enabled. Multimodal structured and unstructured data (Human- space, sensor- space and Internet-space) Data is dynamically changing Relevant data (used to be only 10% of all the data)
  45. 45. MUSES_SECRET: ORF-RE Project - © PAMI Research Group – University of Waterloo 45/2245Techne Summit 2015 © Dr. Alaa Khamis • Lack of domain tools Challenges
  46. 46. MUSES_SECRET: ORF-RE Project - © PAMI Research Group – University of Waterloo 46/2246Techne Summit 2015 © Dr. Alaa Khamis • Time Consuming Challenges Integrated Machine-learning and Knowledge Acquisition Approach [7]
  47. 47. MUSES_SECRET: ORF-RE Project - © PAMI Research Group – University of Waterloo 47/2247Techne Summit 2015 © Dr. Alaa Khamis • Model performance Evaluation and Iterative Process Challenges Error Training Cycles Training error Too simple model Too complex model Underfitting High bias Low variance Overfitting Low bias High variance Best balance smallest testing error and acceptable training error Testing error
  48. 48. MUSES_SECRET: ORF-RE Project - © PAMI Research Group – University of Waterloo 48/2248Techne Summit 2015 © Dr. Alaa Khamis Individual Behaviour i-Level Algorithm–based Behaviour Group behaviour g-Level • g-Level Algorithms Challenges
  49. 49. MUSES_SECRET: ORF-RE Project - © PAMI Research Group – University of Waterloo 49/2249Techne Summit 2015 © Dr. Alaa Khamis • g-Level Algorithms Challenges The problem of designing both the physical morphology and behaviours of the individual agents such that when those agents interact with each other and their environment, the desired overall collective behaviours will emerge. At present there are no principled approaches to the design of low-level behaviours for a given desired collective behaviour [8]. “collective behavior is NOT simply the sum of each participant’s behavior, as others emerge at the society level” [9].
  50. 50. MUSES_SECRET: ORF-RE Project - © PAMI Research Group – University of Waterloo 50/2250Techne Summit 2015 © Dr. Alaa Khamis Challenges • Industry-Academia Collaboration
  51. 51. MUSES_SECRET: ORF-RE Project - © PAMI Research Group – University of Waterloo 51/2251Techne Summit 2015 © Dr. Alaa Khamis 2. Business Challenges Challenges
  52. 52. MUSES_SECRET: ORF-RE Project - © PAMI Research Group – University of Waterloo 52/2252Techne Summit 2015 © Dr. Alaa Khamis • The Innovator’s Dilemma Challenges
  53. 53. MUSES_SECRET: ORF-RE Project - © PAMI Research Group – University of Waterloo 53/2253Techne Summit 2015 © Dr. Alaa Khamis • The Innovator’s Dilemma Challenges expensive navigation systems
  54. 54. MUSES_SECRET: ORF-RE Project - © PAMI Research Group – University of Waterloo 54/2254Techne Summit 2015 © Dr. Alaa Khamis 3. Social Impact Challenges
  55. 55. MUSES_SECRET: ORF-RE Project - © PAMI Research Group – University of Waterloo 55/2255Techne Summit 2015 © Dr. Alaa Khamis • Social Impact Challenges
  56. 56. MUSES_SECRET: ORF-RE Project - © PAMI Research Group – University of Waterloo 56/2256Techne Summit 2015 © Dr. Alaa Khamis • Social Impact: Privacy Challenges Collecting data happens invisibly and passively, as a by product of another service.
  57. 57. MUSES_SECRET: ORF-RE Project - © PAMI Research Group – University of Waterloo 57/2257Techne Summit 2015 © Dr. Alaa Khamis • Social Impact: Impact on human skills and intelligence Challenges Research is needed to answer the following open questions:  How does machine intelligence affect human cognitive processes and reduce our overall intelligence?  Does machine intelligence hurt the development of our hippocampus, impact our critical thinking skills, hinder knowledge acquisition, and harm our ability to concentrate? Cleveland Amory (1917-1998) American Author “In my day the schools taught two things, love of country and penmanship — now they don’t teach either.”
  58. 58. MUSES_SECRET: ORF-RE Project - © PAMI Research Group – University of Waterloo 58/2258Techne Summit 2015 © Dr. Alaa Khamis • Social Impact: Changing Social Norms Challenges Physical activities Face-to-face interaction
  59. 59. MUSES_SECRET: ORF-RE Project - © PAMI Research Group – University of Waterloo 59/2259Techne Summit 2015 © Dr. Alaa Khamis • Social Impact: Employment Challenges A study out of Oxford University in 2014 found that in the near future artificially intelligent technology could take over nearly half of all U.S. jobs. We can expect a wave of structural unemployment to spring from the technology in the medium term.
  60. 60. MUSES_SECRET: ORF-RE Project - © PAMI Research Group – University of Waterloo 60/2260Techne Summit 2015 © Dr. Alaa Khamis • Social Impact Challenges Top 10 countries by robot density (industrial robots per 10,000 manufacturing workers) [15]
  61. 61. MUSES_SECRET: ORF-RE Project - © PAMI Research Group – University of Waterloo 61/2261Techne Summit 2015 © Dr. Alaa Khamis • Social Impact Challenges 1 10 100 1000 Japan Singapor South Korea Germany Sweden Italy Finland Belgium US Spain Robot denisty in 2008 Total unemploymen t rate in 2008 There is a negative correlation between robot density and unemployment rate (-0.44)
  62. 62. MUSES_SECRET: ORF-RE Project - © PAMI Research Group – University of Waterloo 62/2262Techne Summit 2015 © Dr. Alaa Khamis Bibliotheca Alexandrina, Alexandria, October 24-25, 2015 Machine Intelligence and Optimization
  63. 63. MUSES_SECRET: ORF-RE Project - © PAMI Research Group – University of Waterloo 63/2263Techne Summit 2015 © Dr. Alaa Khamis Bibliotheca Alexandrina, Alexandria, October 24-25, 2015 Machine Intelligence and Optimization Thank you for your attention Questions? View publication statsView publication stats

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