We are in the early stages of a massively disruptive shift to electric, connected, shared (“uberization”) and self-driven vehicles. Over the next ten years, the digitization of the transportation of people and goods has the potential to create $11.4 Trillion of economic value globally. During the same time, $6.4 Trillion of value is migrating to other stakeholders, resulting in a net present value of $5 Trillion. The underlying economic model integrates over 450 effects from numerous academic and industry studies into a comprehensive financial model that describes the flow of money between the potential “winners and losers” of this transformation of road transportation. This presentation highlights key results of the study to assist business leaders and policy makers with their innovation, investment and partnership strategies to secure the benefits and minimize the collateral damage from the imminent disruption of the transportation industry.

1. $5 Trillion
Economic Value at Stake:
Digitization of Road Transportation
Andreas Mai
Former Director Smart Connected Vehicles, Cisco Systems
November 2016

2. $1,254
$1,251
$895
$884
$790
V@S [$ Billion]
Self-Driven-Vehicle
Connected Vehicle
Mobility-as-a-Service
Intelligent Transportation System
Advanced Driving Assistance System
Five key value drivers of the ‘Digitization of Transportation’
– ADAS and ITS account for half of the global V@S
$5.0 Trillion
Global – Digitization of Transportation: Total V@S 2017-26 & 7% Discount by Vehicle Type [USD Billion]
Source: Digitization of Road Transportation V@S Model, Andreas Mai, 2016

3. For cars, highest V@S with ADAS and Mobility-as-a-Service
– For trucks, ITS and connected fleet drive most of the V@S
$5.0 Trillion $3.4 Trillion V@S by Vehicle Type
Global – Digitization of Transportation: Total V@S 2017 – 26 Discounted @ 7% by Vehicle Type [USD Billion]
$1,254 $342 $912
$1,251
$784
$467
$895
$0
$895
$884
$386
$498
$790 $128
$662
All Vehicles All Trucks All Cars
Self-Driven-Vehicle
Connected Vehicle
Mobility-as-a-Service
Intelligent Transportation
System
Advanced Driving
Assistance System
$1.6 Trillion
Source: Digitization of Road Transportation V@S Model, Andreas Mai, 2016

4. $5,470
$4,057
$1,915
$3,199
$3,170
$5,074
Cost Reduction Gross Margin
Increase
Cost Avoidance Gross Margin
Reduction
Cost Increase Net Impact
V@S Model integrates over 450 effects and the resulting
creation and migration of values between stakeholders
Global – Digitization of Transportation Value Creation, Migration & V@S by Value Type 2017-26 [USD Billion]
• Crashes (Society)
• Congestion
• Parking space
• MaaS cost/ Mile
• Insurance (Owner)
• Crashes (Owner)
• New MaaS business
• People mobility GDP
• L2-5 system (Auto)
• L2-L5 system
(Owner)
• More SDV VMT
• Data services
• Taxi price/ share
• Insurance
• Repairs (Dealer)
Value Creation Value Migration V@S
$ 11.4 Trillion $ 6.4 Trillion $ 5.0 Trillion
Source: Digitization of Road Transportation V@S Model, Andreas Mai, 2016

5. The V@S of Mobility-as-a Service and self-driven vehicles
increases over 70% for each 1% point penetration
$48
$86
$291
$555
$685
$0 $500 $1,000 $1,500 $2,000
Connected
ADAS
ITS
SDV
MaaS
1%
5%
7%
70%
23%
77%
Penetration
Global – Digitization of Transportation: Annual V@S Uplift of 1% Point Vehicle Penetration [% and $ Billion]
$5.1
$1.7
V@S [$ Trillion]
Higher
33%
Source: Digitization of Road Transportation V@S Model, Andreas Mai, 2016

6. ($599)
($65)
($54)
($24)
Half of the V@S is societal – biggest winners are owner,
insurer & auto; drivers & car rental are likely losers
Global – Digitization of Transportation: Winners & Losers V@S 2017 – 2026 @ 7% Discount [USD Billion]
$1,128
$638
$566
$324
$235
$206
$152
V@S [$ Billion]
Oil
MSP
NewCo
ITS
Auto
Insurer
Owner
$2.5
$2.5
V@S [$ Trillion]
$5.0 Trillion
Society
Winners
&
Losers
$3.2 Trillion Losers$0.7 Trillion
Driver
Rental
Medical
Legal
Winners
Source: Digitization of Road Transportation V@S Model, Andreas Mai, 2016

7. Significant global societal benefits over the next decade
1 Million19 Million 12 Million
250 Billion Hours
= 140 Million Work Years
= 30 Million Years
= 400,000 Lifetimes
Global – Digitization of Transportation: Societal Value 2017 – 2026
+185,000+3.0 Million +2 Million
+ 1% Point Penetration
+100 Billion Hours
Source: Digitization of Road Transportation V@S Model, Andreas Mai, 2016

8. AutopilotAssisted
North America: Unlocking the Hidden Value of Driving Time
Connected
2,400
880
80
Value $3,360
Work
Media
Rest 0
56%
Shop
1 @ 1.25 vehicle occupancy 2 Congestion, traffic light stops, looking for parking
113 Traffic Inefficiencies 2
2015
580 Hours Driving Time per Vehicle per Year 1
Value of Driving Time
Source: Digitization of Road Transportation V@S Model, Andreas Mai, 2016

9. Globally: Saving 5.8 Million tanker trucks of fuel
– plus 1,500 supertankers of emissions
Emissions Avoided
480 Million Metric Tons
= 1,500 Supertankers
Fuel Saved
200 Billion Liters
= 5.8 Million Tanker Trucks
2.0
x
Equator
Global – Digitization of Transportation: Societal Environmental Value 2017 – 2026
Source: Digitization of Road Transportation V@S Model, Andreas Mai, 2016

10. SDV increase net fuel consumption by 60 Billion Liters for
each 1 percent point higher penetration: Driving EVs?
-
8
(126)
54
4
Connected
ADAS
SDV
ITS
MaaS
1% Point
0%
7%
22%
- 76%
76%
Penetration
= 60 Billion Liters
More Fuel
(– 30% of Savings)
Global – Digitization of Transportation: Impact of 1% Point Penetration on Fuel 2017–26 [%/ Billion Liters]
47% Empty Miles: Case for Electrification?
More Fuel Consumption Less Fuel Consumption
Source: Digitization of Road Transportation V@S Model, Andreas Mai, 2016

11. At 10% of global car population, MaaS has the potential to
make 1.7 billion people mobile, especially in Asia & Africa
344.3
458.9
606.2
788.0
995.4
72.3
100.6
139.0
187.3
247.2
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
0.6% 0.8% 1.1% 1.5% 2.0% 2.7% 3.5% 4.5% 5.9% 7.6% 9.5%
Africa
Middle East
Latin America
Asia Pac
Eastern Europe & CIS
Western Europe
North America
Sensitivity Analysis: Estimated Impact of Global MaaS Fleet on MaaS Members by Region [# MM]
Current
V@S Model
2026
Mobility-as-a-Service Fleet in Percent of Total Car Population
MaaS Members [# MM]
Source: Digitization of Road Transportation V@S Model, Andreas Mai, 2016

12. MaaS is set to shift new car sales from personal owners in
mature markets to emerging markets and fleets
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
0.6% 0.8% 1.1% 1.5% 2.0% 2.7% 3.5% 4.5% 5.9% 7.6% 9.5%
North America
Western Europe
Eastern Europe & CIS
Asia Pac
Latin America
Middle East
Africa
World
Sensitivity Analysis: Estimated Impact of Global MaaS Fleet on Cars Shed/ Sold by Region [# MM]
Current
V@S Model
2026
Mobility-as-a-Service Fleet in Percent of Total Car Population
MaaS Fleet Sold [# ‘000]
Cars Shed [# ‘000]
Source: Digitization of Road Transportation V@S Model, Andreas Mai, 2016

13. Over 60 Million jobs created for society, fleet owners, ITS
and insurers make up for lost jobs of drivers and others
(10.0)
-
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026
Other Losers
Drivers
Other Winners
Oil
ITS
Insurer
Owner
Society
Global – Digitization of Transportation: Job Creation & Migration by Stakeholder [Million Jobs]
2)
1)
1) Rental, Medical, Legal Industry 2) Auto, MSP, New
Source: Digitization of Road Transportation V@S Model, Andreas Mai, 2016

14. 15%
19%
20%
24%
25%
33%
41%
45%
31%
22%
33%
28%
25%
20%
22%
17%
13%
17%
25%
27%
17%
19%
15%
19%
19%
15%
11%
12%
18%
21%
11%
15%
22%
26%
11%
9%
16%
8%
10%
4%
Western Europe
North America
Eastern Europe
Latin America
World
Asia Pac
Middle East
Africa
ADAS ITS Connected MaaS SDV
V@S per vehicle type varies across the globe = different
digitization of transportation priorities for regions & countries
Global – Digitization of Transportation: Total V@S 2017 – 2026 @ 7% Discount by Region & Vehicle Type [%]
$5.0 Trillion
$1,812
$1,480
$928
$389
$465
V@S
Rest of World
Latin America
North America
Western Europe
Asia Pac
1) Eastern Europe & CIS, Africa, Middle East
1)
Source: Digitization of Road Transportation V@S Model, Andreas Mai, 2016

15. Want a deeper drive? andreasmai99@gmail.com
Digitization of Road Transportation
Global Value at Stake
Regional Comparison
Different Priorities
Regional Strategies
Value for Money
Stakeholder Strategies
Winners and Losers