1.
$5 Trillion
Economic Value at Stake:
Digitization of Road Transportation
Andreas Mai
Former Director Smart Connected Vehicles, Cisco Systems
November 2016

2.
$1,254
$1,251
$895
$884
$790
V@S [$ Billion]
Self-Driven-Vehicle
Connected Vehicle
Mobility-as-a-Service
Intelligent Transportation System
Advanced Driving Assistance System
Five key value drivers of the ‘Digitization of Transportation’
– ADAS and ITS account for half of the global V@S
$5.0 Trillion
Global – Digitization of Transportation: Total V@S 2017-26 & 7% Discount by Vehicle Type [USD Billion]
Source: Digitization of Road Transportation V@S Model, Andreas Mai, 2016

3.
For cars, highest V@S with ADAS and Mobility-as-a-Service
– For trucks, ITS and connected fleet drive most of the V@S
$5.0 Trillion $3.4 Trillion V@S by Vehicle Type
Global – Digitization of Transportation: Total V@S 2017 – 26 Discounted @ 7% by Vehicle Type [USD Billion]
$1,254 $342 $912
$1,251
$784
$467
$895
$0
$895
$884
$386
$498
$790 $128
$662
All Vehicles All Trucks All Cars
Self-Driven-Vehicle
Connected Vehicle
Mobility-as-a-Service
Intelligent Transportation
System
Advanced Driving
Assistance System
$1.6 Trillion
Source: Digitization of Road Transportation V@S Model, Andreas Mai, 2016

4.
$5,470
$4,057
$1,915
$3,199
$3,170
$5,074
Cost Reduction Gross Margin
Increase
Cost Avoidance Gross Margin
Reduction
Cost Increase Net Impact
V@S Model integrates over 450 effects and the resulting
creation and migration of values between stakeholders
Global – Digitization of Transportation Value Creation, Migration & V@S by Value Type 2017-26 [USD Billion]
• Crashes (Society)
• Congestion
• Parking space
• MaaS cost/ Mile
• Insurance (Owner)
• Crashes (Owner)
• New MaaS business
• People mobility GDP
• L2-5 system (Auto)
• L2-L5 system
(Owner)
• More SDV VMT
• Data services
• Taxi price/ share
• Insurance
• Repairs (Dealer)
Value Creation Value Migration V@S
$ 11.4 Trillion $ 6.4 Trillion $ 5.0 Trillion
Source: Digitization of Road Transportation V@S Model, Andreas Mai, 2016

5.
The V@S of Mobility-as-a Service and self-driven vehicles
increases over 70% for each 1% point penetration
$48
$86
$291
$555
$685
$0 $500 $1,000 $1,500 $2,000
Connected
ADAS
ITS
SDV
MaaS
1%
5%
7%
70%
23%
77%
Penetration
Global – Digitization of Transportation: Annual V@S Uplift of 1% Point Vehicle Penetration [% and $ Billion]
$5.1
$1.7
V@S [$ Trillion]
Higher
33%
Source: Digitization of Road Transportation V@S Model, Andreas Mai, 2016

6.
($599)
($65)
($54)
($24)
Half of the V@S is societal – biggest winners are owner,
insurer & auto; drivers & car rental are likely losers
Global – Digitization of Transportation: Winners & Losers V@S 2017 – 2026 @ 7% Discount [USD Billion]
$1,128
$638
$566
$324
$235
$206
$152
V@S [$ Billion]
Oil
MSP
NewCo
ITS
Auto
Insurer
Owner
$2.5
$2.5
V@S [$ Trillion]
$5.0 Trillion
Society
Winners
&
Losers
$3.2 Trillion Losers$0.7 Trillion
Driver
Rental
Medical
Legal
Winners
Source: Digitization of Road Transportation V@S Model, Andreas Mai, 2016

7.
Significant global societal benefits over the next decade
1 Million19 Million 12 Million
250 Billion Hours
= 140 Million Work Years
= 30 Million Years
= 400,000 Lifetimes
Global – Digitization of Transportation: Societal Value 2017 – 2026
+185,000+3.0 Million +2 Million
+ 1% Point Penetration
+100 Billion Hours
Source: Digitization of Road Transportation V@S Model, Andreas Mai, 2016

8.
AutopilotAssisted
North America: Unlocking the Hidden Value of Driving Time
Connected
2,400
880
80
Value $3,360
Work
Media
Rest 0
56%
Shop
1 @ 1.25 vehicle occupancy 2 Congestion, traffic light stops, looking for parking
113 Traffic Inefficiencies 2
2015
580 Hours Driving Time per Vehicle per Year 1
Value of Driving Time
Source: Digitization of Road Transportation V@S Model, Andreas Mai, 2016

9.
Globally: Saving 5.8 Million tanker trucks of fuel
– plus 1,500 supertankers of emissions
Emissions Avoided
480 Million Metric Tons
= 1,500 Supertankers
Fuel Saved
200 Billion Liters
= 5.8 Million Tanker Trucks
2.0
x
Equator
Global – Digitization of Transportation: Societal Environmental Value 2017 – 2026
Source: Digitization of Road Transportation V@S Model, Andreas Mai, 2016

10.
SDV increase net fuel consumption by 60 Billion Liters for
each 1 percent point higher penetration: Driving EVs?
-
8
(126)
54
4
Connected
ADAS
SDV
ITS
MaaS
1% Point
0%
7%
22%
- 76%
76%
Penetration
= 60 Billion Liters
More Fuel
(– 30% of Savings)
Global – Digitization of Transportation: Impact of 1% Point Penetration on Fuel 2017–26 [%/ Billion Liters]
47% Empty Miles: Case for Electrification?
More Fuel Consumption Less Fuel Consumption
Source: Digitization of Road Transportation V@S Model, Andreas Mai, 2016

11.
At 10% of global car population, MaaS has the potential to
make 1.7 billion people mobile, especially in Asia & Africa
344.3
458.9
606.2
788.0
995.4
72.3
100.6
139.0
187.3
247.2
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
0.6% 0.8% 1.1% 1.5% 2.0% 2.7% 3.5% 4.5% 5.9% 7.6% 9.5%
Africa
Middle East
Latin America
Asia Pac
Eastern Europe & CIS
Western Europe
North America
Sensitivity Analysis: Estimated Impact of Global MaaS Fleet on MaaS Members by Region [# MM]
Current
V@S Model
2026
Mobility-as-a-Service Fleet in Percent of Total Car Population
MaaS Members [# MM]
Source: Digitization of Road Transportation V@S Model, Andreas Mai, 2016

12.
MaaS is set to shift new car sales from personal owners in
mature markets to emerging markets and fleets
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
0.6% 0.8% 1.1% 1.5% 2.0% 2.7% 3.5% 4.5% 5.9% 7.6% 9.5%
North America
Western Europe
Eastern Europe & CIS
Asia Pac
Latin America
Middle East
Africa
World
Sensitivity Analysis: Estimated Impact of Global MaaS Fleet on Cars Shed/ Sold by Region [# MM]
Current
V@S Model
2026
Mobility-as-a-Service Fleet in Percent of Total Car Population
MaaS Fleet Sold [# ‘000]
Cars Shed [# ‘000]
Source: Digitization of Road Transportation V@S Model, Andreas Mai, 2016

13.
Over 60 Million jobs created for society, fleet owners, ITS
and insurers make up for lost jobs of drivers and others
(10.0)
-
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026
Other Losers
Drivers
Other Winners
Oil
ITS
Insurer
Owner
Society
Global – Digitization of Transportation: Job Creation & Migration by Stakeholder [Million Jobs]
2)
1)
1) Rental, Medical, Legal Industry 2) Auto, MSP, New
Source: Digitization of Road Transportation V@S Model, Andreas Mai, 2016

14.
15%
19%
20%
24%
25%
33%
41%
45%
31%
22%
33%
28%
25%
20%
22%
17%
13%
17%
25%
27%
17%
19%
15%
19%
19%
15%
11%
12%
18%
21%
11%
15%
22%
26%
11%
9%
16%
8%
10%
4%
Western Europe
North America
Eastern Europe
Latin America
World
Asia Pac
Middle East
Africa
ADAS ITS Connected MaaS SDV
V@S per vehicle type varies across the globe = different
digitization of transportation priorities for regions & countries
Global – Digitization of Transportation: Total V@S 2017 – 2026 @ 7% Discount by Region & Vehicle Type [%]
$5.0 Trillion
$1,812
$1,480
$928
$389
$465
V@S
Rest of World
Latin America
North America
Western Europe
Asia Pac
1) Eastern Europe & CIS, Africa, Middle East
1)
Source: Digitization of Road Transportation V@S Model, Andreas Mai, 2016

15.
Want a deeper drive? andreasmai99@gmail.com
Digitization of Road Transportation
Global Value at Stake
Regional Comparison
Different Priorities
Regional Strategies
Value for Money
Stakeholder Strategies
Winners and Losers