ComScore State Of Us Online Retail Economy In Q3 09

State of the U.S. Online Retail Economy in Q3 2009
November 12, 2009

Gian Fulgoni, Chairman, comScore, Inc.
Note: A copy of this presentation will be sent to all attendees within 24 hours of
today’s webinar

Data sourced from comScore‟s global panel of 2 million Internet
users

360° View of Consumer Behavior Analysis Parameters

Web Visiting  E-commerce data includes all worldwide buying on
and Viewing U.S. sites

 Unless explicitly stated otherwise, the term e-
commerce refers to online retail spending, which
Demographics Online / Offline excludes travel, autos and auction sites
Life Stages Transactions
 Behavioral activity through September 2009

 Survey issued in October 2009, n=1046

 Consumer Measurements:
– Site Visitation
– Buying
– Mobile
Search – Payment Method
Video Behavior
– Attitudes and Intentions
– Demographics
Media  Retailer Views
Exposure
– Multi-Channel vs. Pure Play

© comScore, Inc. Proprietary and Confidential. 2

comScore Customer Knowledge Platform:
A 360° View of 2 Million Global Internet Users

WEB VISITING & VIEWING DEMOGRAPHICS
• All Website/Page Click Stream • Self-reported and validated
• Content Viewed • Appended Segments (e.g. Claritas, Acxiom)
• Search Engine Queries • Individual & Household Level
• Keyword Used

ONLINE TRANSACTIONS SURVEYS
• All Secure Session Activity • Email or Contextual “Pops”
• Purchases and Subscriptions • Behavior-activated Surveys
• Price Paid, Shipping & Handling, • Observation of All Surveys Taken
Promotions Across All Suppliers
• Applications/Configurations

MARKETING STIMULI OFFLINE PURCHASING
• Linked using Name and Address
• Online Ads TV VIEWING • Client CRM Databases
• Referral Links • Link to Digital Set Top TV Data
Using Name & Address • Retailer Loyalty Card Data

Designed to be representative of the online population
Projectable to the total U.S. population
TRUSTe certified for information privacy & security


State of the Economy: A Review of Key
Macroeconomic Trends


Validation of comScore Sales Data:
Comparison of comScore data to U.S. Department of Commerce

Quarterly U.S. e-Commerce Sales ($ Billions)
Source: comScore & U.S. Department of Commerce (DOC)
Billions ($)

% Change in e-Commerce Sales vs. YA
Q2 ‟08 Q3 ‟08 Q4 ‟08 Q1 ‟09 Q2 ‟09
U.S. Dept. of
9% 5% -5% -6% -5%
Commerce
comScore 12% 5% -4% -3% -4% comScore Estimate = (Total Non-Travel – Event Tickets +
Estimated Auction Fees and Autos)

Excludes travel and event tickets, but includes auction fees and
autos

Q1- Q3 retail e-commerce sales are down 1% versus year ago, while
travel sales are down 6%

e-Commerce Dollar Sales Growth ($ Billions)
Source: comScore e-Commerce Measurement
+7%

+17%
$221
+20% $200
-3%
+22%
$171 +9%
+26%
+12%
$153
+29%
$143
+13%
$117
+20% -6%
$93 +26%
$72 +33%
+6%
+21%
+24%
Travel +24%
-1%
+26%
+26%

Non-
Travel


We‟re seeing clear signs that we‟ve hit the bottom but still no positive
growth ….

Quarterly e-Commerce Sales Growth vs. YA

23%
19%
17%
13%
11%
6%
0% -1% -2%
-3%

Quarterly Retail & Food Services Sales Growth vs. YA
Source: U.S. Department of Commerce (DOC)

4% 4% 5% 4%
2% 1%

-8%
-10% -9%

Note: The U.S. Department of Commerce calculation includes total retail and
food service sales, which also includes motor vehicles and parts dealers

Sales trends through the third quarter of „09 mirror last year and
show no growth

e-Commerce Dollar Sales ($ Billions)

% Chg
vs. Prior
+43% -15% -3% +5% +38% -20% -2% -1% +26% -18% -3% -2%
Quarter

$39.1 $38.1
$33.0 $31.2
$30.6 $30.3 $31.0 $30.2 $29.6
$28.4
$28.0 $27.2
Billions ($)

Q4 '06 Q1 '07 Q2 '07 Q3 '07 Q4 '07 Q1 '08 Q2 '08 Q3 '08 Q4 '08 Q1 '09 Q2 '09 Q3 '09

“Retail sales showed further signs of stabilization in October, according to new data from Mastercard‟s
SpendingPulse unit, but they're not posting the kind of gains that would significantly boost the economy.”
--WSJ Blogs, November 12, 2009


All income segments showing declines in e-commerce spending

Q3 2009 e-Commerce Sales vs. YA by Income Segment

Income Segment Online Retail Spending Bracket Share of
Change vs. YA Online Retail Online Retail
Income Segment Online Retail

Under $50,000 -5% 21% Spending

$50,000 - $99,999 -1% 45%

$100,000 or more -3% 34%

Total -2% 100%


As the older mid-to-upper income households save to re-create their lost
wealth, they are cutting spending. The 18-44 age group is purchasing more
versus year ago, particularly in the high income segment

Q3 „09 Ecom Sales
Age & Income Segment % Chg vs. YA
$50K - $99.9K
 18-44 yrs of age…………………………….. +3%
 45 yrs or older……………………………… -5%

$100K or more
 18-44 yrs of age ………………………….. +10%
 45 yrs or older……………………………… -12%


While no positive growth as of yet, the monthly trend in e-commerce
sales in Q3 is somewhat encouraging

Monthly e-Commerce Sales Growth vs. YA

Month Growth Rate vs. YA
January 2009 +2%
February 2009* +2%
March 2009 -1%
April 2009 0%
May 2009 -4%
June 2009 -1%
July 2009 -5%
August 2009 -1%
September 2009 0%
*February 2009 growth rate is seasonally adjusted to account for the leap year (2008).


E-commerce continues to attract more buyers but they are spending
less than a year ago

Key e-Commerce Buyer & Transaction Measures
Source: comScore E-commerce Measurement

There are % Chg in Q3 „09 vs. YA
more people
buying online E-commerce Sales Growth -2%
vs. YA but Buyer Change +19.6%
they are
Dollars Per Buyer Change -18.4%
spending
less via fewer Dollars Per Transaction
-2.4%
Change
transactions
and fewer Transactions per Buyer
-16.4%
dollars per Change
transaction


Consumer sentiment about the current state of the economy has
improved – albeit marginally – among those earning less than $100K

Consumer Fear Factor by Income Segment
Q. To what extent do you agree with the following statement:
“I am more afraid of the economic future than ever before.”
Source: comScore Surveys – July & October 2009

-2% -2% 0% %age Pt. Change vs. Q2

77% 75%
73%


However, a slightly improved outlook means little when you consider
the impact of consumer debt on one‟s ability to spend on
discretionary items

Impact of Debt on Spending for Non-Essentials by Income Segment
Q. How has your current level of debt impacted your ability to spend on non-essentials?
Source: comScore Survey October 2009

4% 4% 6% % Spending More on
Non-Essentials

50% 46%
65% % Spending Less on
Non-Essentials


Unemployment/job security continues to be a top concern among all
consumers

Percent of Respondents Citing Their One Most Important Concern
Q. Based on your current situation, which one of the following economic conditions most
concerns you?

Among All Consumers Among Consumers
Earning $100K or more
Unemployment/Job 42% 34%
Security
Rising Prices 32% 19%
Financial Markets 13% 27%
Real Estate/Home 8% 15%
Values
Other 5% 5%


Consumers remain most concerned about unemployment, with little
overall change in consumers‟ most pressing issues over the past
several months

Percent of Respondents Citing Their One Most Important Issue
Q. Based on your current situation, which one of the following economic conditions
most concerns you?
Source: comScore Surveys - January, April, July & October 2009

Rising Unemployment/ Financial Real Estate/
Prices Job Security Markets Home Values
Jan April July Oct Jan April July Oct Jan April July Oct Jan April July Oct
09 09 09 09 09 09 09 09 09 09 09 09 09 09 09 09

Total 29% 28% 32% 32% 46% 46% 40% 42% 14% 15% 13% 13% 7% 8% 8% 8%

Household Income

$100K or more 15% 7% 22% 19% 42% 44% 28% 34% 20% 34% 30% 27% 19% 11% 11% 15%

$50K-$99,999 21% 22% 27% 28% 50% 50% 44% 43% 18% 17% 15% 13% 9% 10% 10% 12%

Under $50K 36% 38% 40% 39% 44% 44% 39% 42% 10% 8% 6% 9% 3% 7% 6% 4%

“The U.S. jobless rate jumped up 0.4 percentage point to 10.2% in October, the highest level
since April 1983. The government‟s broader measure of unemployment shot up even more,
rising half a point to 17.5%.” –WSJ, Nov. „09


Just over half of consumers believe it will take more than a year for
the unemployment rate to show signs of improvement

Unemployment Rate Predictions
Q. When do you think the unemployment rate will begin to improve?
Source: comScore Surveys - July & October 2009

+1% +2% +5% -6% 0% %age Pt. Change
vs. Q2


Inflation concerns are again beginning to surface. To no surprise, as
HH income decreases, rising prices become more worrisome

Consumer Concern Over Rising Prices by Income Segment
Q. Are you afraid that prices are going to rise in the next 3 months?
Source: comScore Survey – October 2009

85%
76%
71%
Yes

No
15% 24% 29%


Some pundits are optimistic about the recession being “technically
over,” but there are still many factors that will impact the speed of
recovery

October 23, 2009 October 29, 2009
“25% of U.S. mortgage holders are “underwater” on
their mortgages, with more than 10,000 additional
U.S. homeowners entering the foreclosure process “A total of 690,000 new vehicles were sold under the Cash for
every day – and millions more homeowners only a Clunkers program last summer, but only 125,000 of those
(missing) pay check away from joining that were vehicles that would not have been sold anyway,
category.” [according to Edmunds.com]…[Because the] overwhelming
majority of sales would have taken place anyway at some
Note: According to the blog, The Big Picture, time in the last half of 2009…that means the government
“nationally, 22% of all homes are underwater…Back ended up spending about $24,000 each for those 125,000
out the mortgage-free homes, and we get 33% of all additional vehicle sales.”
mortgaged homes are underwater.”

November 6, 2009 November 9, 2009

“U.S. consumer credit fell in September for an eighth “The U.S. jobless rate jumped up 0.4 percentage point to
straight month, the longest series of declines on 10.2% in October, the highest level since April 1983. The
record, as thousands of Americans lost their jobs government‟s broader measure of unemployment shot up
and banks tightened access to loans… More than even more, rising half a point to 17.5%.”
100 banks have failed this year, and lenders are
requiring tougher conditions for the credit they
extend to consumers and businesses.”


The promising Q3 „09 GDP report that showed 3.5% growth needs to
be considered in the context of several short term stimuli that
contributed to a temporary boost in the growth rate

“More than one percentage point of GDP growth in the third quarter came from car sales,
driven in a large part by the temporary "cash for clunkers" program. After surging in July
and August, retail car sales dropped 10.4% in September.”
--WSJ, Oct 30, 2009

“Q3 GDP was also propped up by home building, which rose for the first time since
2005…and contributed a half-percentage point to GDP growth. But much of the housing
revival reflects government efforts to push down mortgage rates, prevent or at least slow
foreclosures, and reward home buyers with tax credits.”
--WSJ, Oct 30, 2009

“Banks are buying U.S. government debt in an effort to shore up their balance sheets…Bank
lending is basically back to where it was two years ago, and shows no sign off
rebounding...Lending to small business, the real engine of job creation, is sadly decreasing
each month.”
--John Mauldin, President, Millennium Wave Advisors, LLC


Job losses as a percentage of peak employment have dropped lower
(and longer) than any other post WWII recession

Percent Job Losses in Post WWII Recessions
Source: CalculatedRiskBlog.com
% Job Losses Relative to Peak Employment Month

Number of Months After Peak Employment

“The country has lost more jobs as a percentage of peak employment than any time since the Great Depression.
This includes the recessions of the early 1980s, even when they are combined.”
--The Business Insider, Oct. „09


Gas prices are increasing again, while food prices are now back to
year-ago levels

Percent Change in Price vs. YA
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

6%

-42% -40% -40%

CPI for Gasoline (all types) by Month in 2009

250 AAA‟s Daily Fuel Gauge Report
200
150 Regular Unleaded Gas
100
50
Avg. Price for Nov. 3, 2009: $2.89
0
% Chg vs. Month Ago Avg: +9%
% Chg vs. YA Avg: +11%

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics


The Economy‟s Impact on Consumers‟ Online
Shopping Behavior


The Books & Magazines category was a top performer in Q3 ‟09, and
will be one to watch as we head into the holiday season, with a
heated price war already underway
Q3 2009 e-Commerce Sales Growth vs. YA by Retail Sub-Category

Category Growth vs. YA
Books & Magazines Up
Consumer Electronics (x PC Peripherals) Up
Sport & Fitness Marginally Up
Computers/Peripherals/PDAs Marginally Up
Video Games, Consoles & Acces. Flat
Event Tickets Marginally Down
Jewelry & Watches Marginally Down
Apparel & Accessories Down
Home & Garden Down
Furniture, Appliances & Equipment Significantly Down
Toys & Hobbies Significantly Down
Flowers, Greetings & Misc. Gifts Significantly Down
Music, Movies & Videos Significantly Down

“The holiday period represents anywhere between 25% and 40% of the industry's annual sales and is make-
or-break for some categories, according to NRF.”
– WSJ, Oct. „09


Pure play sites accounted for nearly six of every ten e-commerce
dollars spent in Q3 „09, their highest share on record

e-Commerce Dollar Share by Retailer Type


During the holiday season, buyers are more likely to make purchases
on more than 1 site, buying on an average of 3 sites during the period

% Buyers Making a Purchase on 1 Site vs. 2+ Sites by Quarter

Average # of sites
buyers purchased
on, of those who 2.97 3.02 2.97 3.33 2.84 2.84 2.75
bought from more
than one site.

42% 41% 40% 38% 36%
44% 48%

58% 59% 60% 62% 64%
56% 52%

Q1 08 Q2 08 Q3 08 Q4 08 Q1 09 Q2 09 Q3 09
1 site 2+ sites


With more cross-shopping and less consumer loyalty toward a given
retailer during the holiday season, it‟s no wonder aggressive pricing
is taking center stage

Amazon vs. Wal-Mart Buyer Overlap

3% 3% 8% 3% 4% 3%

77% 79% 70% 80% 78% 83%

“Borders Group Inc took the latest step in 23%
20% 18% 17% 19% 15%
the battle for book buyers this holiday
season, promising customers it will ship
items to their homes for free when they're Q2 08 Q3 08 Q4 08 Q1 09 Q2 09 Q3 09
out of stock in the company's bookstores.”
– Reuters, Oct. „09 Walmart Only Amazon Only Overlap


In Q3, a few retailers were able to increase buyer conversion while
experiencing heightened visitation compared to year ago

Average change in
Buyer Conversion
vs. year ago among
top retailers:
-3%

Q3 „09 UV‟s
4.7 37.0 10.8 14.8
(MM)

© comScore, Inc. Proprietary and Confidential. 28 Source: comScore e-Commerce Measurement & Media Metrix

While luxury department stores have taken a hit in this economy,
invitation-only e-luxury sites are flourishing – at least in visitation

Unique Visitors and Growth vs. YA for % Composition by HH Income for
September 2009 September 2009
Source: comScore Media Metrix Source: comScore Media Metrix

118%*
500
Total Gilt
450 HauteLook Ideeli RueLaLa
+199% +222% Internet Groupe
400
Unique Visitors (000)

350 Less than
28% 25% 24% 21% 14%
300 $40K
+40%
250
$40K-$74.9K 35% 33% 31% 32% 23%
200
150
$75K-$99.9K 15% 17% 14% 20% 22%
100
50 $100K or
0 22% 25% 31% 27% 41%
more

*Note: comScore began tracking Hautelook in October „09 therefore its above
growth rate is calculated vs. Jan „09 instead of vs. YA

Groupon.com – a relatively new “deal-of-the-day” site with a slightly different model and
broader appeal – has grown 250% from July 2009 to September 2009.


PayPal B2C Market Share has grown steadily over the past four years to
almost 10% of B2C Transactions; 2008 Holiday-promotions drove an increase
in PayPal dollar share for retailers

PayPal B2C e-Commerce Market Share

9.5%
6.5% 7.5%
4.5% 4.1% 5.0%
2.3% 3.5%

2006 2007 2008 1H 2009
Dollars Transactions

PayPal Share of Dollars at Specific Online Retailer Site

Point
In Q4 08, Overstock.com customers were Q3 08 Q4 08
Change
presented with 15% cash back on a $100
purchase when using PayPal 15.0% 18.6% 3.6
Overstock.com
Dell.com gave PayPal preferential Dell.com 1.9% 7.0% 5.1
treatment, positioning the payment option
right under Dell‟s payment plan and above AE.com 3.0% 8.0% 5.0
all other credit card options


Retailers have increased their discounting in response to sluggish
consumer demand

% Change in Offers per Retailer in 2009 vs. YA
Source: ShopLocal

350
+10% +22% +16%
300
Offers per Retailer

+11% +7% +3%
250 +5% -5% +16%
+15%
200
150
100
50
0
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct

2008 2009

“Shoppers are „testing the waters a little more aggressively," said Ken Perkins, president of Retail
Metrics Inc., a retail research firm. "They've gone from dipping their toe into the discretionary pool
to stepping in a little further, maybe up to their ankles.” – WSJ, Nov. „09


Coupon sites continue to grow in importance during these tough
economic times, and as we saw in Q4 „08 we‟ll likely see visits and
UVs spike in Q4 „09

Growth in Unique Visitors & Total Visits to % Composition of Coupon Users on Selected
Coupon Sites vs. YA Retail Sites in September 2009
Source: comScore Media Metrix Source: comScore Segment Metrix


Savvy Smartphone Users are Shopping Using Mobile:
Is the smartphone to mobile advertising what broadband is to the PC?

Category % Reach Among Mobile Phone Users
Accessed Via Mobile Device
Source: comScore MobiLens, US, 3-month average ending August „09

Source: TechCrunch, October 2009


2009 Holiday Season Preview

“Holiday shopping in 2008 was defined by the huge discounts
that were available - and available very early in the holiday
season.” – Reuters, October 2009

What will this year bring?


Burning questions we‟re answering for retailers this holiday season:

 In-store sales is still the primary metric we focus on. How do I prove that my holiday
marketing spend drove incremental sales in my physical retail locations?
 I‟m advertising heavily across multiple channels this holiday season. What mix of
marketing channels (digital and traditional) have the most significant impact on my
brand?
 Have retailers‟ market shares shifted during the holidays within the Consumer
Electronics category? – Same question for Apparel
 I know which digital marketing tactics (search, display, email, etc.) are driving traffic
to my site. Which are most successful in driving online sales? How does this
compare to my competitors?
 What do my category buyers do before ultimately purchasing? What sites do they
visit? What do they search for?
 We‟ve ramped up our search spend this holiday season. How do I validate that this
spend drove incremental sales that we wouldn‟t have gotten if we didn‟t spend?
 I know where to find my demographic target online, and I know where to find heavy
visitors to my category. How do I determine where my category buyers are online so
I can design my media plan accordingly?


A net 46% of consumers earning under $50K anticipate spending less this
holiday season; meanwhile a net 38% and 32% of those earning $50K to
$100K and more than $100K respectively anticipate spending less

Plans for Holiday Spending This Season
Q. Do you anticipate your spending for the holiday season to be...?

Overall, 50% of consumers anticipate their spending to be less this holiday season

7%
More than I Typically Spend
8%
9%
55%
45% About the same
37%

46% 39%
55%
Less than I Typically Spend

Share of Online
Retail Spend: (21%) (45%) (34%)


Of those who intend on spending less this holiday season, more than
half say it‟s because they have less money

Reasons Consumers are Planning to Spend Less This Holiday Season
Q. Why are you planning to spend less this holiday season? (check all that apply)


One-fourth of consumers typically travel during the holidays, with
half planning to stay with family and friends and 15 percent saying
they‟ve cancelled their plans completely

Holiday Travel

Q. Which of the following
Q. Do you typically travel during the holidays? describes your travel plans this
holiday season?
(check all that apply)

Yes

No


Retailers are reaching into their marketing toolboxes this season to
find ways to provide value to consumers and incentivize spending…

Smart merchants will look at consumer behavior and apply free shipping and
Promotions other promotional offers to specific customer segments during specific time
periods. (Internet Retailer, Oct. ‘09)

Layaway plans making a comeback for holiday shopping season: Driven by
the credit crunch and sagging economy, Toys-R-Us has joined a growing list of
Layaway retailers reviving the once-popular payment plan in an effort to boost sales.
(Chicago Tribune, Oct. ‘09)

Walmart plans to reduce prices as the season advances in areas including
home, food and gifts. (Bloomberg, Oct ‘09)
Price Discounts
Discount retailer Target is offering up to half off of popular toys like Barbie
and Fisher Price to lure bargain hunters this holiday season.
(CNNMoney.com, Oct. ‘09)

With an understanding that many of today’s shoppers use Facebook and
Twitter regularly, and because these tools are more cost-effective than
Social Media traditional advertising, 47.1 percent of retailers surveyed will be increasing their
use of social media this holiday season. (Shop.org, Oct. ‘09)


…And, on the cost side of things, they‟re also doing more to try to
boost profit margins and finish the year strong

Because of the economic downturn this year, many retailers are under-
ordering products – Baird notes that retailers’ inbound container shipments
are down 16% from a year ago. (Bloomberg, Oct. ‘09)
Inventory
Management Shoppers willing to pry open their wallets may find a surprise on the shelves
this season: not as many brands, a diminished palette of colors, and fewer
deep discounts. (Boston Globe, Oct. ‘09)

Nearly half the nation's 25 biggest retail chains expect to hire fewer holiday
Personnel/ workers this season than they did last year, another sign that retailers aren't
Staffing counting on recession-strained shoppers to relax the tight grip on their
pocketbooks this year. (Wall Street Journal, Oct. ‘09)

The web will influence one in three holiday purchases this year, and retailers
are using the Internet not only as a sales channel but also as a marketing
Tweaking vehicle. (Shop.org, Oct.‘09)
Marketing Mix
The proliferation of mobile applications and social networks may yield new
opportunities to pursue targeted advertising, build brand loyalty and measure
campaign effectiveness. (Retail Trading, Sept. ‘09)


Two thirds of consumers have not yet started their holiday shopping

Timing of Holiday Shopping
Q. Have you started shopping for the holidays?

No 68%

Yes 32%


Free shipping has become increasingly more prevalent; the
percentage of transactions with free shipping increased 11 points
since Q1 „08 to account for 42% of all e-commerce transactions

Percentage of e-Commerce Transactions with Free Shipping Average Order Value (AOV)
Source: comScore e-Commerce Measurement Free Versus Paid Shipping
Free Paid
Time
Shipping Shipping
Period
AOV AOV

Q1 08 $113 $86

Q2 08 $120 $88

Q3 08 $115 $91

Q4 08 $116 $96

Q1 09 $114 $87

Q2 09 $104 $88

Q3 09 $106 $90


Current Predictions for the 2009 Holiday Season…

 Retail Predictions
The International Council of Shopping Centers: +1%
Deloitte Research: flat
Retail Forward: flat
Archstone Consulting: - 1%
National Retail Federation: -1%

E-commerce Predictions
Historical Comparison
Forrester: +8% Dept of Commerce Forrester
Q1 2009 -5.8% +11%
Q2 2009 -4.5% +12%

comScore forecast will be issued w/o November 23


Key Takeaways


Key Takeaways

 We‟re seeing clear signs that we‟ve hit the bottom of the decline in e-commerce
spending, and comScore expects some modest growth in the holiday season
compared to last year
 Consumers continue to be very cautious about their spending given concerns about:
– The job market/unemployment/lack of job creation
– Declines in housing prices/Underwater mortgages
– Lack of credit and too much debt
– Rising gas prices

 E-commerce continues to attract more buyers, but they are spending less than a
year ago by completing fewer transactions and spending less per shopping trip
 Retailers are hiring fewer workers and carefully planning their inventory so as to
avoid heavy discounting post-season
 The holiday season will likely be characterized by heavy discounts/price wars,
promotions/couponing, an earlier start to the season and an increased use of digital
marketing


QUESTIONS?

Please contact us at learnmore@comscore.com if
you have any additional questions or comments.


Thank You!
Note: A copy of this presentation will be sent to all attendees within 24
hours of today‟s webinar.

ComScore State Of Us Online Retail Economy In Q3 09

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