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Climate March of Folly
Boaz Arad1
22 April 2022
originally published in Anochi Magazine
The 52nd anniversary of "Earth Day"
April 22 marks 52 years for "Earth Day" campaigns, launched in 1970. This was when
millions of Americans first observed the inaugural "Earth Day". 1970 was an especially
active year in regard to environmental campaigns. 3.7 billion people lived in the world
then, less than half of today's population. In the rich part of the Western world, the
environmental movement was gaining traction – and moving people towards the idea of
an action to "save the world" from a looming catastrophe. This movement would
eventually become of the most successful activist movements in history – and within
mere decades, will influence legislation, media, education and economics all across the
Western world. In this essay, in this article I'll respond to the nature of the environmental
argument which led to the ascent of the "Earth Day" campaign and related campaigns
such as the "Climate March", as well as examine several of the unexpected harmful
consequences of this campaigns around the world and in Israel. These effects don't
usually get media attention.
The Leading Environmental Campaigns
1970's "Earth Day" exposed the doom anxiety of Americans of that period, one of which
was the fear of the use of chemicals and especially DDT. This fear was driven by Rachel
Carson's book, "Silent Spring". This non-fiction work was originally published in parts in
"New Yorker" magazine in 1962, and after its full publication was widely successful and
got backed by the newly established Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). It was the
first major campaign by the agency. In her book, Carson claimed that we were destroying
1 Boaz Arad is the director of the Ayn Rand Center in Israel and Co-Founder of the Israeli Freedom Movement.
the fabric of food. Another claim included in the book is that DDT is a cancerogenic
substance that harms people. These fears were accompanied by a threatening tone and a
prediction of "the end of mankind" – and these got echoed in media and even made their
way to Israel (consider the excerpt from Maariv, Sep. 1970).
Maariv, September 1970. Translation: “DDT concentrations in the tissues of the average Israeli; The
‘ecological demon’ threatens our lives: The human race has only 130 years of existence left on Earth - due to
the growing environmental pollution”
Another campaign that got traction was an updated version of the Malthusian fear from
population growth and resource depletion, this time coming from biologist Paul R.
Ehrlich. Together with his wife, Ehrlich published that year a book called "The Population
Bomb". In his work, he announced the extinction of hundreds of millions of human beings
in a catastrophe. The book starts with the statement: "The battle to feed all of humanity
is over. In the 1970s, hundreds of millions of people will starve to death in spite of any
crash programs embarked upon now". Ehrlich said: "When you reach the point when you
realize all subsequent efforts are futile, you can now take care of yourself and your friends
and enjoy the little time you have left. For me, that point is 1972".2
2 Barry Commoner (May 1972). "A Bulletin Dialogue: on "The Closing Circle" — Response". Bulletin of the
Atomic Scientists: 17–56.
Above: An ad in the New York Times calling for an urgent birth reduction action while the world’s
population numbered 3.5 billion people.
Such focused campaigns perfectly fit the historic human concern from weather threats (a
concern as long as ancient times, accompanying the fear of droughts or storms
jeopardizing human existence). Around that time, this concern began to take a new form:
fear of a radical climate change leading to an existential threat.
An expression of this anxiety was published in "Yedioth Ahronoth" in September 1970,
when experts quoted in a piece predicted a weather "chaos" within 40 years and stated
that "there are many proofs that something strange is happening to our weather". This is
Dr. Mitchell, representing the American National Weather Service: "Since 1950, the
temperature of Earth's surface declined by 3 Celsius degrees. This decline seems
relatively small, but if it continues, mankind will face a new ice age within 200 years".
(See the pictured article).
Above: Yedioth Ahronoth article from September 1970. Translation: “Within the next 40 years there may
be chaos in the field of weather on Earth. What causes the ravages of nature? How can they be restrained
and directed to the needs of humanity?”
A combination of frightening campaigns got worldwide media attention in the West (and
in Israel), leading to some 20 million Americans taking the streets in major cities on April
22, 1970, to mark the first "Earth Day". Over 2,000 academic institutes, thousands of high
schools and various other organizations took part in this event. This format took hold and
became one of the most publicized major international events.
The Theology of the Catastrophe Arguments
One major aspect of the climate campaign is describing the looming catastrophe awaiting
us if we won't act. These catastrophe threats are based on a theological argument
common among religious missionaries and best presented by an argument called
"Pascal's wager".
Pascal was a French philosopher and mathematician (1623-1662) who wanted to prove
the worthwhileness of the belief in God. He assumed that there's a chance God exists –
and that if a person believes in Him, he'll gain a perpetual place of respect in the afterlife.
On the other hand, a non-believer will be forever tortured in hell.
Pascal gave these choices an infinite value (eternity), a positive one for the first option
and a negative one for the latter. But if God does not exist and a person still believes in
Him – then the price he'll pay and his loss for a false belief is relatively small since human
life is short and finite, and the price for becoming a believer is somewhat small. It follows
that to believe in God is the only rational choice since it leads to an infinite gain – while
not believing could lead to an infinite loss.
This attitude encourages a separation between our actions and their costs. The place of
cost as a major component in policy decision-making is abandoned. Although we pay
dearly, and we'll be required to pay even more – when the danger is so enormous, "any
cost" is worthy and unimportant since the risk of losing Earth and ending humanity is too
big. It is a theological aspect of the environmental movement. Despite the constant
repetitions of the same message, there is no scientific proof of a catastrophic "point of no
return" which will annihilate the people of the world (any point in time is a point of no
return – but that's not a catastrophe).
In order to base its arguments based on Pascal's wager, the environmental movement
needed two ingredients for its argument: one is enlarging the danger part and the second
is ignoring and silencing those approaches offering alternative courses of action. Let's
examine the execution of this method:
1. Enlarging to infinite proportions the danger component (eternal hell) that will be
activated if we won't take the "necessary" action. For this goal, the environmental
movement produces doomsday prophecies and biblical catastrophe visions at a rate no
prophet could match. For instance, a website by the name of "The Extinction Clock"
gathered dozens of extinction prophecies given by "experts" over the last several decades
– including the date when this catastrophe is supposed to come (each prophecy is
matched with its date in the past or the future). Prof. John Brignell made a list of over 600
issues published after being attached to global warming. Almost every disease, political
event, terrorist attack or possible danger got an academic, journalistic or political
analysis connecting it to the damages and effects of global warming.
In Israel, the Minister of Environmental Protection, Tamar Zandberg, gives a comical
aspect (and exaggeration) to this phenomenon by constantly sending out statements
linking every negative event to global warming. For example, when visiting a fire
department war room dealing with arson-caused wildfires in the mountains of Jerusalem,
Zandberg declared that she would fight global warming, which increases the danger of
wildfires – and demanded to legislate into effect a "Climatic state of emergency".3
2. Ignoring the alternatives. The second flaw in Pascal's wager comes from its
presentation of a traditional theological view which does not see any other option and
avoids examining alternative costs. Not only that Pascal was wrong to claim that there's
a situation of "infinite cost" (eternity), the second part of Pascal's wager is erroneous
since there isn't only one way to believe in God, despite the fact that every religion claims
to be the only one holding a divine right over true belief. Even if we are convinced, and
we want to believe in a god – the question is, which god should we believe in? What is the
right way to express this belief in order to win our desired heaven? In economic terms,
we can describe it as an alternative cost. Every course of action we'll choose has a price –
and we must look into the pros and cons of each way in order to choose the preferred
one. Environmental movements, in the spirits of Pascal's monotheistic wager, tend to
demand a consensus and ignore (or silence) alternative courses of action.
In reality, there are different options and courses of action – and each choice comes with
its price and its gains. The environmental argument tends to ignore that by presenting
one alternative out of context and demanding a consensus. It could be outlawing DDT,
forcing the conversion of crops into biofuels or producing solar energy. Each seemed at
3 As a side note, it is doubtful whether the arsonists will be impressed by this determination, but it is clear that
diverting budgets and focus from local problems that we can address to global problems that we can influence to
minimal or non-existent degrees - will lead us to lose out both ways.
the time (and some still do) as a canonical solution that must be enforced and promoted
through regulations, quotas and legislation without looking into alternative costs.
The unintended consequences of the Environmental Campaigns
The public is mostly exposed to words of praise regarding the Earth Day campaign and
its related environmental campaigns. Many propagandists tell us that we're actually
"saving" when we're being asked to pay more for the environment. The media is reluctant
to cover the unintended harmful effects of these campaigns – but it is essential that we
acknowledge them4. Ignoring the widespread benefits of DDT and the ghastly
exaggerations of its phoney ill-effects led to it getting banned in Western countries – and
denying it from countries that needed DDT desperately. The success of this campaign led
to a resurgence of malaria in places it was believed to be under control. As a result, there
are still many deaths in places where the exterminator has not yet been used effectively,
mostly in sub-Saharan Africa and parts of South America and Asia. At its peak, malaria hit
hundreds of millions of people and caused the death of more than a million each year.
Today, it is estimated that 650,000 people die of malaria every year. A widespread death
that could have been avoided is continuing – as a result of denying the most powerful tool
against malaria, the DDT.
The campaign for population reduction had severe implications in poor countries.
Charles Mann described it in his book "The Wizard and the Prophet": "The results of the
campaigns were ghastly. Millions of women were sterilized, often coercively, sometimes
illegally, frequently in unsafe conditions, in Mexico, Bolivia, Peru, Indonesia, Bangladesh,
and, especially, India. In the 1970s and 1980s, the Indian government, then led by Indira
Gandhi and her son Sanjay, embraced policies that in many states required sterilization
for men and women to obtain water, electricity, ration cards, medical care, and pay raises.
Teachers could expel students from school if their parents weren't sterilized. More than
8 million men and women were sterilized in 1975 alone. ("At long last," World Bank head
Robert McNamara remarked, "India is moving to effectively address its population
problem.”) All the while, the same programs were pushing birth control with equal vigor.
4 For more information regarding the harmful effects of Rachel Carson and her partners to the anti-DDT campaign:
http://www.green-logic.info/2012/05/blog-post_6160.html
In Egypt, Tunisia, Pakistan, South Korea, and Taiwan, health workers' salaries were, in a
system that invited abuse, dictated by the number of IUDs they inserted into women".5
The claim that human rights violations are justified because the fate of the world is at
stake and apocalypse is around the corner was the key to accumulating budgets and
power – as well as the justification for running compulsive programs.
The green campaign to reduce fuel use has also led to a rise in food prices in the world –
due to huge food burning under the pretext of biofuel production. This food burning did
not improve the fuel emissions regime – but did lead to great harm to the quality and
prices of food around the world. The usual course of action of the "environmental
engineers", a result of the ecological view of the world, was governmental intervention in
order to engineer the economy by subsidies and binding quotas – based on these false
compulsory subsidies and quotas, an entire ethanol and biodiesel industry was founded.
Campaigns to promote unreliable solar and wind energy have led to distortions in the
energy market in Western countries, to energy price hike – and to a disruption of energy
supply and a new dependency on dictators and tyrants (who were insensitive to these
campaigns and therefore did not sabotage the energy production in their countries).
In Israel, the environmental campaign led to the cessation of gas exploration on the one
hand – and to the payment of annual subsidies of over 2 billion NIS for decades to come.
These amounts would grow will grow substantially should the government's future plans
be fulfilled. These costs will be inflicted upon electricity bill payers – and will significantly
contribute to the cost of living and the unattractiveness of living in Israel.
Environmental organizations are leading many other campaigns, including the campaign
against genetic engineering. As a result, the lives and health of millions were harmed, for
example, by the banning of golden rice and other essential products.
Opposition to development and technology can take many forms, and there are plenty of
examples from Israel: from the delay in the paving of Highway 6 in Israel, blocked by
judicial activism, through no less than 15 petitions to the Israeli Supreme Court by
environmental organizations – which prolonged the project to more than 25 years,
instead of a few years, while immensely damaging Israel's economy.
5 The Wizard and the Prophet: Two Remarkable Scientists and Their Dueling Visions to Shape Tomorrow's World
by Charles C. Man, 2018.
The Israeli gas project also suffered years of delays and added costs, and development
constraints. The oil project in Israel was effectively blocked due to the prevention of a
pilot for the production of shale oil in Israel – thus preventing Israeli citizens from gaining
the opportunity to hedge the price of oil, which could rise steeply as a result of
geopolitical events and affect the cost of living in Israel.
Other campaigns added more burdens to the cost of housing in Israel, which is rising
particularly high relative to OECD countries, in part by complicating regulation with rules
and "green construction" standards. All of these raise the cost of living in Israel and make
the lives of all Israeli citizens more difficult and expensive.
Translation: “Energy Minister: ‘natural gas will wait – we will focus on renewable energy”
Climate March of Folly
On the teaching staff website of the Israeli education system, run by the Ministry of
Education, there are about 30 different "green dates". One of the major ones is the
"Climate March". In lesson plans distributed by the Society for the Protection of Nature to
schools in Israel, meant to prepare students for participation in the Climate March that
took place in 2020, the activists involved in society and in the Ministry of Education give
us an illustration of the theological approach to climate.
The Climate March focuses on climate change and global warming due to human activity
and promotes the solutions of reducing consumption and moving to "renewable
energies". In the lesson plans, teachers are instructed to teach about the benefits of solar
energy – but not to list its disadvantages nor to look into alternative uses for the resources
required to fund this "magic solution". Not only have these lesson plans passed the
Ministry of Education filters unchecked, they are also gaining support by encouraging
students to participate in the Climate Parade.
Students are instructed to demand the passing of the "Solar Energy Bill" while the lesson
falsely claims to look into "pros" versus "cons". The lesson plan misleadingly presents the
advantages of solar power generation but does not specify the critical disadvantages and
their meaning. (See the attached picture, taken from the lesson plan.)
Above: Excerpt from a lesson plan made by the Society for the Protection of Nature, "Activity in
preparation for the Climate March." Translation: “…Solar energy systems do not produce air pollutants and
do not emit carbon dioxide ... The sun is the most efficient and economical raw material…”
For instance: It states that "solar energy systems do not produce air pollutants." This
might have been true if solar panels had magically appeared in the solar field – and
disappeared in a similar way when their life expectancy reached its end. But in reality,
the panels have to be manufactured and moved in a process that produces air pollution.
The production of the panels requires the quarrying of heavy metals and their processing.
The quantities of panels required to meet the energy needs specified in the bill and the
stated goals are also enormous (about 60 million panels for the production of about 30%
of the electricity supply). These panels will end their lives at some point in the future -
and such a number of panels require expensive care and disposal.
It is stated in the lesson plan that "the sun is the most efficient raw material". It is a
mistake when it comes to generating electricity. Electricity is required 24 hours a day in
summer and winter, but the sun does not shine at night, and the extent of its effect varies
greatly between winter and summer. Even in optimal conditions, when the sun is shining,
the solar panels represent the most "sparse" energy production relative to alternatives.
A study examining solar power generation over 30 years across continental Europe found
that solar power is at 20% of the capacity installed at peak output (in summer) and about
5% of the capacity installed in winter.6 While this is stated as a disadvantage, it is not
explained that it is a critical flaw that eliminates the "advantage".
Above: Data on 30 years of solar energy production across Europe
An essential Achilles heel of solar systems is the non-existent storage means. The
disadvantage is due to the fact that it is not possible to significantly store solar energy,
and therefore it is also inefficient to achieve the goal that one seeks to achieve. This
central issue is not mentioned at all.
6 THE COSTS OF DECARBONISATION: SYSTEM COSTS WITH HIGH SHARES OF NUCLEAR AND
RENEWABLES, NEA No. 7299, © OECD 2019 https://www.slideshare.net/Anochi/the-costs-of-decarbonisation
A review of the Electricity Authority's reports (Increasing Electricity Generation Goals for
Renewable Energy By 2030) will reveal that implementation targets can raise electricity
prices, undermine supply reliability and cause major environmental damage – but fail to
"supply the goods" of reducing conventional electricity generation. See section 19 in the
summary of the report:
Above: excerpt from the Electricity Authority’s report. Translation: “In terms of the
implications of setting a goal on the production system, it appears that increasing the goal
for renewable energies does not significantly reduce the conventional power required for
the economy. That is, the construction of solar facilities saves almost no construction of a
conventional power plants. However, increasing the goal to 30 percent leads to
technological change and to a need to build more flexible facilities, as well as storage
facilities to a significant extent”.
At the end of the day, Israeli students will be exposed to the issue by indoctrination rather
than critical learning. They will not know that even if we enact laws and add at high costs
for 30% of solar energy production, we will not be able to significantly reduce the
production of conventional energy.
Another violation of the principles of balanced state education is added in addition to this
deception when students are directed towards political activism through the Climate
Parade – and are asked to put pressure on politicians in demanding legislation that, if
passed, does not achieve the goal.
Summary
The environmental movement has become a major ideological force in our world. Its
messages are new – but the methods used by this movement are the same methods that
led to the growth of the leading monotheistic religions in the world.
We expose the public in general and even more the young people in our education system
to indoctrination. Many efforts are devoted to inserting these messages in the education
system – with a great deal of success and with the active accompaniment of the media,
which is threatening politicians.
Ilana Curiel in Yedioth Ahronoth, the campaign to expand “climate crisis” studies in schools (Twitter)
The more sensitive young people will develop irrational existential fears. These fears are
expressed in the modern version of the Children's Crusades, journeys that throughout
history have ended in tragedy. This modern version is the travels of Greta Thunberg, who
gained prominence in 2019 when her furious speech was broadcast to the whole world
from the UN stage. Before Thunberg, another young woman (who had since then grown
up) starred in that same role. That was Severn Suzuki, who spoke at the UN Conference
in the Rio Summit in 1992. In the Israeli version, children without knowledge and
understanding are invited to give concerned speeches at demonstrations and festive
meetings of Knesset committees – where they adopt the cheeky "fashion" and scold and
preach morality to politicians while receiving an encouraging media embrace that
strengthens ignorance and baseless faith.
In the area of policy, the ongoing campaign has disrupted the energy supply in democratic
nations that are sensitive to populist campaigns. These countries increased their
dependence on fossil energy supplies from authoritarian states – and thus harmed global
stability and empowered tyrants.
In summary, it can be said that the environmental movement in general and Earth Day,
in particular, were a great success, but this success came with a price tag and "unintended
consequences" that we were asked to ignore in the spirit of Pascal's theology.
Russia's invasion of Ukraine (on February 24, 2022) and the accompanying humanitarian
disaster were caused in no small part by Putin's assurance that Western NATO member
states would not act against Russia – since they are dependent on its energy supply. He
was very much correct – as evident by the facts that the energy sector is excluded from
the sanctions against Russia and that European countries continue to pay for Russian
natural gas and oil, feeding Putin's war machine.7
Above: Payments by European countries for Russian natural gas up until the 9th days of the invasion of
Ukraine
Following the Russian invasion of Ukraine, many European countries have received their
wake-up calls – and we now hear voices of disillusionment from the Climate March of
Folly.
7 The EU is still paying Russia hundreds of millions of euros a day for gas, 5 April 2022:
https://www.newstatesman.com/chart-of-the-day/2022/04/the-eu-is-still-paying-russia-hundreds-of-millions-of-
euros-a-day-for-gas
Also: The EU Has Lots of Options for Targeting Russian Oil. It Should Use Them. 15 April 2022:
https://www.worldpoliticsreview.com/articles/30471/for-eu-russia-sanctions-oil-should-come-next
The German Economy Minister, a member of the Green Party, announced in early March
(according to Reuters) that resources would be diverted to purchasing liquefied natural
gas – and that Germany would slow down the abandonment of coal-fired power stations.
"Pragmatism must trump every political commitment," he said. Similar voices are being
heard in the UK after Boris Johnson recently announced an accelerated construction of
nuclear reactors.
It is too early to assess whether we have reached the end of the successful campaign that
began in the 1970s. What is clear is that sooner or later, at a very costly price, it is
necessary to rethink its messages and the ways we have tried to shape society and the
economy under their guidance.
Additional Sources
Comparison of energetic capacity of different production methods, from the U.S Energy
Department website
World Energy Consumption
Statistical Review of World Energy 2019, BP
https://www.bp.com/en/global/corporate/energy-economics/statistical-review-of-
world-energy.html
Global Waste Production
What a Waste 2.0: Snapshot of Solid Waste Management to 2050, World Bank
https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/handle/10986/30317
HLW annual production from World Nuclear Association
Energy density
Five Fast Facts about Nuclear Energy, Department of Energy
https://www.energy.gov/ne/downloads/infographic-5-fast-facts-about-nuclear-
energy-2018
Power produced comparison
1 GW plant at 93% capacity (1000*0.93= 930) equiv. to 939 3 MW wind turbines at 33%
capacity (3 * 0.33 = 0.99) or 11 million 320 W solar panels at 27% capacity (0.000320 *
0.27 = 8.64E-5)
Death by energy source
How Deadly Is Your Kilowatt? We Rank The Killer Energy Sources by James Conca,
Forbes Magazine June 2012
https://www.forbes.com/sites/jamesconca/2012/06/10/energys-deathprint-a-price-
always-paid/
Lifecycle CO2 emissions
Annex III: Technology – specific cost and performance parameters, IPCC Working Group
III – Mitigation of Climate Change, , IPCC 2014
https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/02/ipcc_wg3_ar5_annex-iii.pdf
Materials use by source
All data except solar thermal: Quadrennial Technology Review, September 2016,
Department of Energy
https://www.energy.gov/sites/prod/files/2017/03/f34/quadrennial-technology-
review-2015_1.pdf
Solar thermal data: The Power of Renewables: Opportunities and Challenges for China
and the United States, National Academies Press (2010)
https://www.nap.edu/read/12987/chapter/13
Land-use Intensity
Energy Sprawl or Energy Efficiency: Climate Policy Impacts on Natural Habitat for the
United States of America, Robert I. McDonald, Joseph Fargione, Joe Kiesecker, William M.
Miller, Jimmie Powell; PLoS ONE, Volume 4, Issue 8, August 2009.
https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0006802
Build times
China-U.S. cooperation to advance nuclear power, Junji Cao, Armond Cohen, James
Hansen, Richard Lester, Per Peterson and Hongjie Xu; Science 353 (6299), 547-548
https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aaf7131
UAE projected build time data from Harmony Programme Presentation March 2018,
World Nuclear Association
http://www.world-nuclear.org/getmedia/1962b22f-3e9d-42d1-951a-
e4e62f446180/Harmony-Programme-Presentation-March-2018.pdf.aspx
Cost by source
Projected costs of generating electricity, 2015 edition, International Energy Agency &
Nuclear Energy Agency
https://www.oecd-nea.org/ndd/pubs/2015/7057-proj-costs-electricity-2015.pdf
Nuclear Energy and Renewables: System Effects in Low-carbon Electricity Systems,
Nuclear Energy Agency
https://www.oecd-nea.org/ndd/pubs/2012/7056-system-effects.pdf
Projected levelised cost
Projected costs of generating electricity, 2015 edition, International Energy Agency &
Nuclear Energy Agency
https://www.oecd-nea.org/ndd/pubs/2015/7057-proj-costs-electricity-2015.pdf
Mean taken for LCOE values from China.
Source of radiation
Australian Radiation Protection and Nuclear Safety Organisation
https://www.arpansa.gov.au/understanding-radiation/what-is-radiation
NEM Modelling
Electric Power Consulting Pty Ltd
https://epc.com.au/index.php/nem-model/
System costs
The Cost of Decarbonisation: System Costs with High Shares of Nuclear and Renewables,
Nuclear Energy Agency
https://www.oecd-nea.org/ndd/pubs/2019/7299-system-costs.pdf
Advanced nuclear costs
What will advanced nuclear plants cost? A Standardized Cost Analysis of Advanced
Nuclear Technologies in Commercial Development, Energy Innovation Reform Project
https://www.innovationreform.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/Advanced-Nuclear-
Reactors-Cost-Study.pdf
Overnight Construction Costs
Historical construction costs of global nuclear power reactors, Jessica R. Lovering, Arthur
Yip & Ted Nordhaus, Energy Policy volume 91, pages 371-382 (2016)
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2016.01.011
European Residential Electricity Costs
Eurostat, Electricity prices by type of user
https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/databrowser/view/ten00117/default/table?lang=en
A Snapshot of Global PV 1992 – 2017, International Energy Agency
http://www.iea-pvps.org/fileadmin/dam/public/report/statistics/IEA-PVPS_-
_A_Snapshot_of_Global_PV_-_1992-2017.pdf
Global Wind Statistics 2017, Global Wind Energy Council
http://gwec.net/wp-content/uploads/vip/GWEC_PRstats2017_EN-003_FINAL.pdf
Nuclear Share of Energy Generation, International Atomic Energy Agency
http://www.iaea.org/PRIS/WorldStatistics/NuclearShareofElectricityGeneration.asp
Energy Sprawl or Energy Efficiency: Climate Policy Impacts on Natural Habitat for the
United States of America, Robert I. McDonald, Joseph Fargione, Joe Kiesecker, William M.
Miller, Jimmie Powell; PLoS ONE, Volume 4, Issue 8, August 2009.

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Climate March of Folly by Boaz Arad - EN.pdf

  • 1. Climate March of Folly Boaz Arad1 22 April 2022 originally published in Anochi Magazine The 52nd anniversary of "Earth Day" April 22 marks 52 years for "Earth Day" campaigns, launched in 1970. This was when millions of Americans first observed the inaugural "Earth Day". 1970 was an especially active year in regard to environmental campaigns. 3.7 billion people lived in the world then, less than half of today's population. In the rich part of the Western world, the environmental movement was gaining traction – and moving people towards the idea of an action to "save the world" from a looming catastrophe. This movement would eventually become of the most successful activist movements in history – and within mere decades, will influence legislation, media, education and economics all across the Western world. In this essay, in this article I'll respond to the nature of the environmental argument which led to the ascent of the "Earth Day" campaign and related campaigns such as the "Climate March", as well as examine several of the unexpected harmful consequences of this campaigns around the world and in Israel. These effects don't usually get media attention. The Leading Environmental Campaigns 1970's "Earth Day" exposed the doom anxiety of Americans of that period, one of which was the fear of the use of chemicals and especially DDT. This fear was driven by Rachel Carson's book, "Silent Spring". This non-fiction work was originally published in parts in "New Yorker" magazine in 1962, and after its full publication was widely successful and got backed by the newly established Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). It was the first major campaign by the agency. In her book, Carson claimed that we were destroying 1 Boaz Arad is the director of the Ayn Rand Center in Israel and Co-Founder of the Israeli Freedom Movement.
  • 2. the fabric of food. Another claim included in the book is that DDT is a cancerogenic substance that harms people. These fears were accompanied by a threatening tone and a prediction of "the end of mankind" – and these got echoed in media and even made their way to Israel (consider the excerpt from Maariv, Sep. 1970). Maariv, September 1970. Translation: “DDT concentrations in the tissues of the average Israeli; The ‘ecological demon’ threatens our lives: The human race has only 130 years of existence left on Earth - due to the growing environmental pollution” Another campaign that got traction was an updated version of the Malthusian fear from population growth and resource depletion, this time coming from biologist Paul R. Ehrlich. Together with his wife, Ehrlich published that year a book called "The Population Bomb". In his work, he announced the extinction of hundreds of millions of human beings in a catastrophe. The book starts with the statement: "The battle to feed all of humanity is over. In the 1970s, hundreds of millions of people will starve to death in spite of any crash programs embarked upon now". Ehrlich said: "When you reach the point when you realize all subsequent efforts are futile, you can now take care of yourself and your friends and enjoy the little time you have left. For me, that point is 1972".2 2 Barry Commoner (May 1972). "A Bulletin Dialogue: on "The Closing Circle" — Response". Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists: 17–56.
  • 3. Above: An ad in the New York Times calling for an urgent birth reduction action while the world’s population numbered 3.5 billion people. Such focused campaigns perfectly fit the historic human concern from weather threats (a concern as long as ancient times, accompanying the fear of droughts or storms jeopardizing human existence). Around that time, this concern began to take a new form: fear of a radical climate change leading to an existential threat. An expression of this anxiety was published in "Yedioth Ahronoth" in September 1970, when experts quoted in a piece predicted a weather "chaos" within 40 years and stated that "there are many proofs that something strange is happening to our weather". This is Dr. Mitchell, representing the American National Weather Service: "Since 1950, the
  • 4. temperature of Earth's surface declined by 3 Celsius degrees. This decline seems relatively small, but if it continues, mankind will face a new ice age within 200 years". (See the pictured article). Above: Yedioth Ahronoth article from September 1970. Translation: “Within the next 40 years there may be chaos in the field of weather on Earth. What causes the ravages of nature? How can they be restrained and directed to the needs of humanity?” A combination of frightening campaigns got worldwide media attention in the West (and in Israel), leading to some 20 million Americans taking the streets in major cities on April 22, 1970, to mark the first "Earth Day". Over 2,000 academic institutes, thousands of high schools and various other organizations took part in this event. This format took hold and became one of the most publicized major international events.
  • 5. The Theology of the Catastrophe Arguments One major aspect of the climate campaign is describing the looming catastrophe awaiting us if we won't act. These catastrophe threats are based on a theological argument common among religious missionaries and best presented by an argument called "Pascal's wager". Pascal was a French philosopher and mathematician (1623-1662) who wanted to prove the worthwhileness of the belief in God. He assumed that there's a chance God exists – and that if a person believes in Him, he'll gain a perpetual place of respect in the afterlife. On the other hand, a non-believer will be forever tortured in hell. Pascal gave these choices an infinite value (eternity), a positive one for the first option and a negative one for the latter. But if God does not exist and a person still believes in Him – then the price he'll pay and his loss for a false belief is relatively small since human life is short and finite, and the price for becoming a believer is somewhat small. It follows that to believe in God is the only rational choice since it leads to an infinite gain – while not believing could lead to an infinite loss. This attitude encourages a separation between our actions and their costs. The place of cost as a major component in policy decision-making is abandoned. Although we pay dearly, and we'll be required to pay even more – when the danger is so enormous, "any cost" is worthy and unimportant since the risk of losing Earth and ending humanity is too big. It is a theological aspect of the environmental movement. Despite the constant repetitions of the same message, there is no scientific proof of a catastrophic "point of no return" which will annihilate the people of the world (any point in time is a point of no return – but that's not a catastrophe). In order to base its arguments based on Pascal's wager, the environmental movement needed two ingredients for its argument: one is enlarging the danger part and the second is ignoring and silencing those approaches offering alternative courses of action. Let's examine the execution of this method: 1. Enlarging to infinite proportions the danger component (eternal hell) that will be activated if we won't take the "necessary" action. For this goal, the environmental movement produces doomsday prophecies and biblical catastrophe visions at a rate no prophet could match. For instance, a website by the name of "The Extinction Clock"
  • 6. gathered dozens of extinction prophecies given by "experts" over the last several decades – including the date when this catastrophe is supposed to come (each prophecy is matched with its date in the past or the future). Prof. John Brignell made a list of over 600 issues published after being attached to global warming. Almost every disease, political event, terrorist attack or possible danger got an academic, journalistic or political analysis connecting it to the damages and effects of global warming. In Israel, the Minister of Environmental Protection, Tamar Zandberg, gives a comical aspect (and exaggeration) to this phenomenon by constantly sending out statements linking every negative event to global warming. For example, when visiting a fire department war room dealing with arson-caused wildfires in the mountains of Jerusalem, Zandberg declared that she would fight global warming, which increases the danger of wildfires – and demanded to legislate into effect a "Climatic state of emergency".3 2. Ignoring the alternatives. The second flaw in Pascal's wager comes from its presentation of a traditional theological view which does not see any other option and avoids examining alternative costs. Not only that Pascal was wrong to claim that there's a situation of "infinite cost" (eternity), the second part of Pascal's wager is erroneous since there isn't only one way to believe in God, despite the fact that every religion claims to be the only one holding a divine right over true belief. Even if we are convinced, and we want to believe in a god – the question is, which god should we believe in? What is the right way to express this belief in order to win our desired heaven? In economic terms, we can describe it as an alternative cost. Every course of action we'll choose has a price – and we must look into the pros and cons of each way in order to choose the preferred one. Environmental movements, in the spirits of Pascal's monotheistic wager, tend to demand a consensus and ignore (or silence) alternative courses of action. In reality, there are different options and courses of action – and each choice comes with its price and its gains. The environmental argument tends to ignore that by presenting one alternative out of context and demanding a consensus. It could be outlawing DDT, forcing the conversion of crops into biofuels or producing solar energy. Each seemed at 3 As a side note, it is doubtful whether the arsonists will be impressed by this determination, but it is clear that diverting budgets and focus from local problems that we can address to global problems that we can influence to minimal or non-existent degrees - will lead us to lose out both ways.
  • 7. the time (and some still do) as a canonical solution that must be enforced and promoted through regulations, quotas and legislation without looking into alternative costs. The unintended consequences of the Environmental Campaigns The public is mostly exposed to words of praise regarding the Earth Day campaign and its related environmental campaigns. Many propagandists tell us that we're actually "saving" when we're being asked to pay more for the environment. The media is reluctant to cover the unintended harmful effects of these campaigns – but it is essential that we acknowledge them4. Ignoring the widespread benefits of DDT and the ghastly exaggerations of its phoney ill-effects led to it getting banned in Western countries – and denying it from countries that needed DDT desperately. The success of this campaign led to a resurgence of malaria in places it was believed to be under control. As a result, there are still many deaths in places where the exterminator has not yet been used effectively, mostly in sub-Saharan Africa and parts of South America and Asia. At its peak, malaria hit hundreds of millions of people and caused the death of more than a million each year. Today, it is estimated that 650,000 people die of malaria every year. A widespread death that could have been avoided is continuing – as a result of denying the most powerful tool against malaria, the DDT. The campaign for population reduction had severe implications in poor countries. Charles Mann described it in his book "The Wizard and the Prophet": "The results of the campaigns were ghastly. Millions of women were sterilized, often coercively, sometimes illegally, frequently in unsafe conditions, in Mexico, Bolivia, Peru, Indonesia, Bangladesh, and, especially, India. In the 1970s and 1980s, the Indian government, then led by Indira Gandhi and her son Sanjay, embraced policies that in many states required sterilization for men and women to obtain water, electricity, ration cards, medical care, and pay raises. Teachers could expel students from school if their parents weren't sterilized. More than 8 million men and women were sterilized in 1975 alone. ("At long last," World Bank head Robert McNamara remarked, "India is moving to effectively address its population problem.”) All the while, the same programs were pushing birth control with equal vigor. 4 For more information regarding the harmful effects of Rachel Carson and her partners to the anti-DDT campaign: http://www.green-logic.info/2012/05/blog-post_6160.html
  • 8. In Egypt, Tunisia, Pakistan, South Korea, and Taiwan, health workers' salaries were, in a system that invited abuse, dictated by the number of IUDs they inserted into women".5 The claim that human rights violations are justified because the fate of the world is at stake and apocalypse is around the corner was the key to accumulating budgets and power – as well as the justification for running compulsive programs. The green campaign to reduce fuel use has also led to a rise in food prices in the world – due to huge food burning under the pretext of biofuel production. This food burning did not improve the fuel emissions regime – but did lead to great harm to the quality and prices of food around the world. The usual course of action of the "environmental engineers", a result of the ecological view of the world, was governmental intervention in order to engineer the economy by subsidies and binding quotas – based on these false compulsory subsidies and quotas, an entire ethanol and biodiesel industry was founded. Campaigns to promote unreliable solar and wind energy have led to distortions in the energy market in Western countries, to energy price hike – and to a disruption of energy supply and a new dependency on dictators and tyrants (who were insensitive to these campaigns and therefore did not sabotage the energy production in their countries). In Israel, the environmental campaign led to the cessation of gas exploration on the one hand – and to the payment of annual subsidies of over 2 billion NIS for decades to come. These amounts would grow will grow substantially should the government's future plans be fulfilled. These costs will be inflicted upon electricity bill payers – and will significantly contribute to the cost of living and the unattractiveness of living in Israel. Environmental organizations are leading many other campaigns, including the campaign against genetic engineering. As a result, the lives and health of millions were harmed, for example, by the banning of golden rice and other essential products. Opposition to development and technology can take many forms, and there are plenty of examples from Israel: from the delay in the paving of Highway 6 in Israel, blocked by judicial activism, through no less than 15 petitions to the Israeli Supreme Court by environmental organizations – which prolonged the project to more than 25 years, instead of a few years, while immensely damaging Israel's economy. 5 The Wizard and the Prophet: Two Remarkable Scientists and Their Dueling Visions to Shape Tomorrow's World by Charles C. Man, 2018.
  • 9. The Israeli gas project also suffered years of delays and added costs, and development constraints. The oil project in Israel was effectively blocked due to the prevention of a pilot for the production of shale oil in Israel – thus preventing Israeli citizens from gaining the opportunity to hedge the price of oil, which could rise steeply as a result of geopolitical events and affect the cost of living in Israel. Other campaigns added more burdens to the cost of housing in Israel, which is rising particularly high relative to OECD countries, in part by complicating regulation with rules and "green construction" standards. All of these raise the cost of living in Israel and make the lives of all Israeli citizens more difficult and expensive. Translation: “Energy Minister: ‘natural gas will wait – we will focus on renewable energy” Climate March of Folly On the teaching staff website of the Israeli education system, run by the Ministry of Education, there are about 30 different "green dates". One of the major ones is the "Climate March". In lesson plans distributed by the Society for the Protection of Nature to schools in Israel, meant to prepare students for participation in the Climate March that took place in 2020, the activists involved in society and in the Ministry of Education give us an illustration of the theological approach to climate.
  • 10. The Climate March focuses on climate change and global warming due to human activity and promotes the solutions of reducing consumption and moving to "renewable energies". In the lesson plans, teachers are instructed to teach about the benefits of solar energy – but not to list its disadvantages nor to look into alternative uses for the resources required to fund this "magic solution". Not only have these lesson plans passed the Ministry of Education filters unchecked, they are also gaining support by encouraging students to participate in the Climate Parade. Students are instructed to demand the passing of the "Solar Energy Bill" while the lesson falsely claims to look into "pros" versus "cons". The lesson plan misleadingly presents the advantages of solar power generation but does not specify the critical disadvantages and their meaning. (See the attached picture, taken from the lesson plan.) Above: Excerpt from a lesson plan made by the Society for the Protection of Nature, "Activity in preparation for the Climate March." Translation: “…Solar energy systems do not produce air pollutants and do not emit carbon dioxide ... The sun is the most efficient and economical raw material…” For instance: It states that "solar energy systems do not produce air pollutants." This might have been true if solar panels had magically appeared in the solar field – and disappeared in a similar way when their life expectancy reached its end. But in reality, the panels have to be manufactured and moved in a process that produces air pollution. The production of the panels requires the quarrying of heavy metals and their processing. The quantities of panels required to meet the energy needs specified in the bill and the stated goals are also enormous (about 60 million panels for the production of about 30%
  • 11. of the electricity supply). These panels will end their lives at some point in the future - and such a number of panels require expensive care and disposal. It is stated in the lesson plan that "the sun is the most efficient raw material". It is a mistake when it comes to generating electricity. Electricity is required 24 hours a day in summer and winter, but the sun does not shine at night, and the extent of its effect varies greatly between winter and summer. Even in optimal conditions, when the sun is shining, the solar panels represent the most "sparse" energy production relative to alternatives. A study examining solar power generation over 30 years across continental Europe found that solar power is at 20% of the capacity installed at peak output (in summer) and about 5% of the capacity installed in winter.6 While this is stated as a disadvantage, it is not explained that it is a critical flaw that eliminates the "advantage". Above: Data on 30 years of solar energy production across Europe An essential Achilles heel of solar systems is the non-existent storage means. The disadvantage is due to the fact that it is not possible to significantly store solar energy, and therefore it is also inefficient to achieve the goal that one seeks to achieve. This central issue is not mentioned at all. 6 THE COSTS OF DECARBONISATION: SYSTEM COSTS WITH HIGH SHARES OF NUCLEAR AND RENEWABLES, NEA No. 7299, © OECD 2019 https://www.slideshare.net/Anochi/the-costs-of-decarbonisation
  • 12. A review of the Electricity Authority's reports (Increasing Electricity Generation Goals for Renewable Energy By 2030) will reveal that implementation targets can raise electricity prices, undermine supply reliability and cause major environmental damage – but fail to "supply the goods" of reducing conventional electricity generation. See section 19 in the summary of the report: Above: excerpt from the Electricity Authority’s report. Translation: “In terms of the implications of setting a goal on the production system, it appears that increasing the goal for renewable energies does not significantly reduce the conventional power required for the economy. That is, the construction of solar facilities saves almost no construction of a conventional power plants. However, increasing the goal to 30 percent leads to technological change and to a need to build more flexible facilities, as well as storage facilities to a significant extent”. At the end of the day, Israeli students will be exposed to the issue by indoctrination rather than critical learning. They will not know that even if we enact laws and add at high costs for 30% of solar energy production, we will not be able to significantly reduce the production of conventional energy. Another violation of the principles of balanced state education is added in addition to this deception when students are directed towards political activism through the Climate Parade – and are asked to put pressure on politicians in demanding legislation that, if passed, does not achieve the goal.
  • 13. Summary The environmental movement has become a major ideological force in our world. Its messages are new – but the methods used by this movement are the same methods that led to the growth of the leading monotheistic religions in the world. We expose the public in general and even more the young people in our education system to indoctrination. Many efforts are devoted to inserting these messages in the education system – with a great deal of success and with the active accompaniment of the media, which is threatening politicians. Ilana Curiel in Yedioth Ahronoth, the campaign to expand “climate crisis” studies in schools (Twitter) The more sensitive young people will develop irrational existential fears. These fears are expressed in the modern version of the Children's Crusades, journeys that throughout history have ended in tragedy. This modern version is the travels of Greta Thunberg, who gained prominence in 2019 when her furious speech was broadcast to the whole world from the UN stage. Before Thunberg, another young woman (who had since then grown up) starred in that same role. That was Severn Suzuki, who spoke at the UN Conference in the Rio Summit in 1992. In the Israeli version, children without knowledge and understanding are invited to give concerned speeches at demonstrations and festive meetings of Knesset committees – where they adopt the cheeky "fashion" and scold and preach morality to politicians while receiving an encouraging media embrace that strengthens ignorance and baseless faith. In the area of policy, the ongoing campaign has disrupted the energy supply in democratic nations that are sensitive to populist campaigns. These countries increased their
  • 14. dependence on fossil energy supplies from authoritarian states – and thus harmed global stability and empowered tyrants. In summary, it can be said that the environmental movement in general and Earth Day, in particular, were a great success, but this success came with a price tag and "unintended consequences" that we were asked to ignore in the spirit of Pascal's theology. Russia's invasion of Ukraine (on February 24, 2022) and the accompanying humanitarian disaster were caused in no small part by Putin's assurance that Western NATO member states would not act against Russia – since they are dependent on its energy supply. He was very much correct – as evident by the facts that the energy sector is excluded from the sanctions against Russia and that European countries continue to pay for Russian natural gas and oil, feeding Putin's war machine.7 Above: Payments by European countries for Russian natural gas up until the 9th days of the invasion of Ukraine Following the Russian invasion of Ukraine, many European countries have received their wake-up calls – and we now hear voices of disillusionment from the Climate March of Folly. 7 The EU is still paying Russia hundreds of millions of euros a day for gas, 5 April 2022: https://www.newstatesman.com/chart-of-the-day/2022/04/the-eu-is-still-paying-russia-hundreds-of-millions-of- euros-a-day-for-gas Also: The EU Has Lots of Options for Targeting Russian Oil. It Should Use Them. 15 April 2022: https://www.worldpoliticsreview.com/articles/30471/for-eu-russia-sanctions-oil-should-come-next
  • 15. The German Economy Minister, a member of the Green Party, announced in early March (according to Reuters) that resources would be diverted to purchasing liquefied natural gas – and that Germany would slow down the abandonment of coal-fired power stations. "Pragmatism must trump every political commitment," he said. Similar voices are being heard in the UK after Boris Johnson recently announced an accelerated construction of nuclear reactors. It is too early to assess whether we have reached the end of the successful campaign that began in the 1970s. What is clear is that sooner or later, at a very costly price, it is necessary to rethink its messages and the ways we have tried to shape society and the economy under their guidance.
  • 16. Additional Sources Comparison of energetic capacity of different production methods, from the U.S Energy Department website World Energy Consumption Statistical Review of World Energy 2019, BP https://www.bp.com/en/global/corporate/energy-economics/statistical-review-of- world-energy.html Global Waste Production What a Waste 2.0: Snapshot of Solid Waste Management to 2050, World Bank https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/handle/10986/30317 HLW annual production from World Nuclear Association Energy density Five Fast Facts about Nuclear Energy, Department of Energy
  • 17. https://www.energy.gov/ne/downloads/infographic-5-fast-facts-about-nuclear- energy-2018 Power produced comparison 1 GW plant at 93% capacity (1000*0.93= 930) equiv. to 939 3 MW wind turbines at 33% capacity (3 * 0.33 = 0.99) or 11 million 320 W solar panels at 27% capacity (0.000320 * 0.27 = 8.64E-5) Death by energy source How Deadly Is Your Kilowatt? We Rank The Killer Energy Sources by James Conca, Forbes Magazine June 2012 https://www.forbes.com/sites/jamesconca/2012/06/10/energys-deathprint-a-price- always-paid/ Lifecycle CO2 emissions Annex III: Technology – specific cost and performance parameters, IPCC Working Group III – Mitigation of Climate Change, , IPCC 2014 https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/02/ipcc_wg3_ar5_annex-iii.pdf Materials use by source All data except solar thermal: Quadrennial Technology Review, September 2016, Department of Energy https://www.energy.gov/sites/prod/files/2017/03/f34/quadrennial-technology- review-2015_1.pdf Solar thermal data: The Power of Renewables: Opportunities and Challenges for China and the United States, National Academies Press (2010) https://www.nap.edu/read/12987/chapter/13
  • 18. Land-use Intensity Energy Sprawl or Energy Efficiency: Climate Policy Impacts on Natural Habitat for the United States of America, Robert I. McDonald, Joseph Fargione, Joe Kiesecker, William M. Miller, Jimmie Powell; PLoS ONE, Volume 4, Issue 8, August 2009. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0006802 Build times China-U.S. cooperation to advance nuclear power, Junji Cao, Armond Cohen, James Hansen, Richard Lester, Per Peterson and Hongjie Xu; Science 353 (6299), 547-548 https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aaf7131 UAE projected build time data from Harmony Programme Presentation March 2018, World Nuclear Association http://www.world-nuclear.org/getmedia/1962b22f-3e9d-42d1-951a- e4e62f446180/Harmony-Programme-Presentation-March-2018.pdf.aspx Cost by source Projected costs of generating electricity, 2015 edition, International Energy Agency & Nuclear Energy Agency https://www.oecd-nea.org/ndd/pubs/2015/7057-proj-costs-electricity-2015.pdf Nuclear Energy and Renewables: System Effects in Low-carbon Electricity Systems, Nuclear Energy Agency https://www.oecd-nea.org/ndd/pubs/2012/7056-system-effects.pdf Projected levelised cost Projected costs of generating electricity, 2015 edition, International Energy Agency & Nuclear Energy Agency https://www.oecd-nea.org/ndd/pubs/2015/7057-proj-costs-electricity-2015.pdf Mean taken for LCOE values from China.
  • 19. Source of radiation Australian Radiation Protection and Nuclear Safety Organisation https://www.arpansa.gov.au/understanding-radiation/what-is-radiation NEM Modelling Electric Power Consulting Pty Ltd https://epc.com.au/index.php/nem-model/ System costs The Cost of Decarbonisation: System Costs with High Shares of Nuclear and Renewables, Nuclear Energy Agency https://www.oecd-nea.org/ndd/pubs/2019/7299-system-costs.pdf Advanced nuclear costs What will advanced nuclear plants cost? A Standardized Cost Analysis of Advanced Nuclear Technologies in Commercial Development, Energy Innovation Reform Project https://www.innovationreform.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/Advanced-Nuclear- Reactors-Cost-Study.pdf Overnight Construction Costs Historical construction costs of global nuclear power reactors, Jessica R. Lovering, Arthur Yip & Ted Nordhaus, Energy Policy volume 91, pages 371-382 (2016) http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2016.01.011 European Residential Electricity Costs Eurostat, Electricity prices by type of user
  • 20. https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/databrowser/view/ten00117/default/table?lang=en A Snapshot of Global PV 1992 – 2017, International Energy Agency http://www.iea-pvps.org/fileadmin/dam/public/report/statistics/IEA-PVPS_- _A_Snapshot_of_Global_PV_-_1992-2017.pdf Global Wind Statistics 2017, Global Wind Energy Council http://gwec.net/wp-content/uploads/vip/GWEC_PRstats2017_EN-003_FINAL.pdf Nuclear Share of Energy Generation, International Atomic Energy Agency http://www.iaea.org/PRIS/WorldStatistics/NuclearShareofElectricityGeneration.asp Energy Sprawl or Energy Efficiency: Climate Policy Impacts on Natural Habitat for the United States of America, Robert I. McDonald, Joseph Fargione, Joe Kiesecker, William M. Miller, Jimmie Powell; PLoS ONE, Volume 4, Issue 8, August 2009.