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• The global economic cycle has strengthened but emerging economies have displayed greater cyclical weakness, with China being a particular concern.
• We forecast 3.4% GDP growth for Chile, consistent with MPR (Monetary Policy Rate) cuts down to 3.25%. This scenario assumes a 2% to 3% contraction in private investment, with a mild public investment growth in line with the Budget Law forecasts.
• Considerable inflationary surprises were seen over the first months of the year, largely related to transitory factors and the swift depreciation of the peso. We forecast 2014 CPI inflation to finish at around 3.1%, below the figures reflected in asset surveys and prices.